TruthIsAll
07-29-2008, 05:59 PM
The 2004 NY Presidential Vote Scam
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2004NewYorkLeverExitPollDiscepancies.htm
Even highly regarded experts get it wrong once in a while. Richard Hayes
Phillips, who did a comprehensive analysis which proved that Ohio 2004 was
stolen, was no exception when he wrote that the 2004 NY exit polls matched
the recorded vote. RHP made the same mistake that countless others make: he
was referring to the Final Exit Poll – which is always forced to match the
recorded vote. He should have checked the preliminary exit polls and read the
Edison-Mitofsky Jan 2005 report (see below).
In 2000, Gore won the NY recorded vote by 60-35-5%. In 2004, Kerry won NY by
58.5-40.2%. But Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 64-35%, which was matched
by the Best Geo and Composite exit poll timeline results (see below). Based on
the exit polls, Kerry’s NY margin should have been over 2.1 million votes, but
he won the recorded vote by only 1.35 million.
Kerry’s margin was reduced by 750,000 votes, which is 25% of Bush’s 3.0m
recorded vote “mandate”. How could Kerry have won by just an 18% margin when
Gore won by 25%? Where did Bush get his NY votes? It’s an Urban Legend.
Read on.
Everyone knew Kerry was going to win NY easily - especially Karl Rove. Bushco
knew that winning the popular recorded vote was critical in order to make
their “mandate” appear legitimate. They could not have a repeat of 2000 when
Gore won the national recorded vote by 540,000 and NY by 1.7 million votes.
In 2004, all indications were that Kerry would do even better than Gore.
A massive Democratic registration and GOTV effort would bring at least 500,000
new voters. Bush was very unpopular in NY; his NY approval rating was much
lower than his national 48%. So Bush had to find a way to keep Kerry’s margin
down in order to get his popular vote “mandate”.
This analysis shows that Kerry did much better in NY than the recorded
vote indicates. The question is not if votes were stolen from Kerry; the question
is how it happened. Those who claim to “love my Levers” are mistaken to
believe that they are foolproof. They cannot verify and prove that their votes
were counted accurately. In fact, historical evidence indicates that Lever
machine vote counts are highly vulnerable to rigging – and not just in NY.
It’s not a HAVA or Lever vs. Optical-scan issue. The issue is whether NY will
have a verifiable vote count.
Victoria Collier writes in "Votescam": “Many people still in power have yet to
be held accountable for their role in aiding and abetting vote fraud. I'll give
you two important examples. Famous Miami lawyer Ellis Rubin brought the
original Votescam evidence to the Florida assistant State Attorney at the
time, Janet Reno. The evidence included the shaved wheels of lever voting
machines, forged canvass sheets, and pre-printed vote tally sheets. Reno refused
to prosecute, claiming falsely that the statue of limitations had run out on
the crime. Years later, Rubin would tell my father that behind closed doors
Reno had stated that she could not prosecute. Why? Because she would bring
down many of the most powerful people in the state”.
The Edison-Mitofsky state exit poll timeline (see below) shows that discrepancies
declined nationally as they were adjusted for pre-election polls and voter
turnout. The New York exit polls declined from 65% (Best GEO) to 63% (1240am
Composite). And then the final exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote.
The pristine, unadjusted exit poll data was not released by E-M until Jan. 2005.
Their report shows that the unadjusted exit poll discrepancies were greater than
those which were downloaded by Jonathan Simon from the Internet at 12:22am.
In other words, the full extent of the apparent fraud was much greater than
the original estimate – but this was not known until three months after the
election. Yet even the Election Day adjusted exit polls raised many red flags.
Briefly, this is a summary of red flags which indicate that the NY 2004
election was rigged to inflate Bush’s mandate:
Kerry won the NY recorded vote by: 58.5-40.2% (4.314- 2.963m).
There were 7.391m total votes recorded.
1) NY exit polls (unadjusted and adjusted) showed Kerry to be a 64-35% winner.
2) In 2000, Al Gore won the recorded vote by 60-35% (4% to Nader).
3) Returning Nader voters went for Kerry by 3-1 over Bush.
4) In 2000, there were 552,000 late (absentee, provisional, etc.) ballots.
Gore won 65.4%.
5) In 2004, there were 499,000 late votes. Kerry won 65.8%.
6) The National Exit Poll indicated that 10% of Bush 2000 voters defected to
Kerry, while only 8% of Gore voters defected.
7) Kerry won the majority (57-61%) of new voters.
Dan Rather's voting machine expose was a clear example of how mechanical
voting machines can be rigged. In Florida 2000, poor-quality paper used in
punch card machines was a major cause of election fraud in heavily Democratic
precincts. The report illustrated a method used to hack mechanical voting machines(punch card or lever).
Naysayers cherry-picked the final NY pre-election poll in an attempt to promote
the myth that the pre-election polls was correct and the exit polls were way off.
In essence, they are claiming that the final pre-election poll matched a fraud-free
recorded vote. But they can’t provide evidence that the votes were counted
accurately. They failed to consider late absentee and provisional ballots which
provide further evidence that the vote count was bogus.
There are fundamental flaws in their arguments.
1- They failed to consider the NY 2000 vote: Gore 60.2-Bush 35.2-Nader 3.6.
Their argument implies that the 2004 recorded vote was fraud-free and that 100%
of returning Nader 2000 voters defected to Bush - clearly an impossible scenario.
In fact, according to the 12:22am NEP, Kerry won Nader voters by 71-21% and 10%
of Bush voters defected to Kerry while just 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush.
Adjusting the NEP weights based on the NY 2000 recorded vote and assuming
12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry won by 63.6-35.1%.
2- They ignored the theoretical margin of error. It’s well-known that exit polls
are more accurate than pre-election polls. There was a 5.1% discrepancy between
Kerry's NY pre-election (59%) and exit poll (64.1%). Since the MoE is 4% for a
typical 600-sample pre-election state poll, there was a 95% probability that
Kerry's True vote was in the 55-63% range. The NY exit poll 3.2% MoE (30% cluster
effect) implies there was a 95% chance that Kerry's True vote was in the
60.8-67.2% range which would fall within the MoE of both the NY pre-election and
exit poll.
On the other hand, the weighted average of 51 state pre-election polls (adjusted
for undecided voters) matched the National Exit Poll to within 1%.
Once again, it’s the Law of Large Numbers taking effect.
3- They failed to consider that Kerry’s vote share was 10% higher in NY than
nationally. The Election Calculator, which accounts for voter mortality, turnout
and uncounted votes, determined that Kerry won by 64.0-34.5%. The assumptions were
as follows: Gore and Kerry won 75% of the uncounted votes (5% of total cast); Kerry
won 94% of Gore voters, 12% of Bush voters, 61% of new (DNV2k) voters and 68% of
returning Nader/other voters. Sensitivity analysis shows that if Kerry won
90-98% of returning Gore voters and 57-65% of DNV, his NY vote share ranged from 61.3-66.7%.
4- They implied there was zero fraud in claiming that the recorded vote was the
true vote. An analysis of the effects of uncounted and switched votes indicates
that Kerry won by 63-36%. If 2% of total votes cast were uncounted (75% to Kerry),
then 7% of Kerry votes were switched to Bush. The uncounted vote assumption
is lower than the 2.74% national average (NY uses lever voting machines).
5- They failed to consider late votes (absentee, provisional, etc.). There were
a total of 7.36 million votes recorded in NY of which 500,000 were late and not
recorded until a few days after the election. Bush won 58.5% of the initial 6.86m
votes; Kerry won 65.8% of the late 500,000 (very close to his 65% exit poll).
________________________________________________________________________
Implausible Urban Legend: Kerry/Bush 42/56% share of New Voters required for the recorded NY 2004 vote
Determine:
The number and percentage shares of new (DNV) voters necessary to match the NY 2004 recorded vote
Key results:
Approximately 6.16 million NY 2000 voters returned to vote in 2004
There were 1.23 million new voters (DNV in 2000)
To match the NY recorded vote:
Bush needed 689,000 (56%) new voters and Kerry had 516,000 (42%)
Bush needed 56% of new (DNV) voters to match his recorded 40% NY share.
Kerry must have had more than 62% of DNV in NY; his recorded share (58.4%) was 10% higher than his national share (48.4%).
Bush’s required NY recorded new voter share was at least 18% higher than his True new voter share.
Assume:
5% of NY 2000 voters died and 5% did not vote in 2004
There were no uncounted votes
According to the 12:22am National Exit poll, of the 2000 voters who turned out in 2004:
91% of Gore voters were for Kerry
90% of Bush voters were for Bush
71% of Nader/other voters were for Kerry
21% of Nader voters were for Bush
This analysis is confirmed by the all NY Exit Poll measures (unadjusted WPE, Best GEO and Composite).
They indicate that Kerry won NY with 63-65%.
NY Pre-election and Exit Polls
New York Kerry Bush Nader
Recorded vote 58.5% 40.2% 1.3%
Final pre-election poll 57 39 1
Projection 59 40 1
Edison-Mitofsky Exit Poll Measures
WPE (11.4) 64.1% 34.4% 1.5%
Best GEO 65.1 33.8 1.1
Composite 63.1 35.5 1.4
The 2004 NYS Election Calculator
DNV vote share adjusted to match recorded vote
2000 Recorded 2004 Calculated 12:22am
Voted Recd Died Alive Voted Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - - - - 1.23 16.7% 42% 56% 2%
Gore 4.11 0.20 3.91 95% 3.71 50.2% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 2.40 0.12 2.29 95% 2.17 29.3% 10% 90% 0%
Nader 0.31 0.02 0.30 95% 0.28 3.8% 71% 21% 8%
Total 6.82 0.00 6.49 6.16 7.39 100% 58.3% 40.6% 1.1%
Votes 7.39 4.31 3.00 0.08
Final NEP Kerry Vote shares reduced to match recorded vote
Implausible: Kerry's NY vote share far exceeded his national share
2000 Record 2004 Calculated Final
Voted Recd Died Alive Voted Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - - - 1.23 16.7% 53% 45% 2%
Gore 4.11 0.20 3.90 95% 3.71 50.2% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 2.40 0.12 2.28 95% 2.17 29.3% 8% 92% 0%
Nader 0.31 0.02 0.30 95% 0.28 3.8% 71% 21% 8%
Total 6.82 0.34 6.48 6.16 7.39 100% 58.5% 40.3% 1.1%
7.39 4.33 2.98 0.08
_________________________________________________________________________
Voting Machines: Within Precinct Error (WPE)
Mechanical (Lever) precincts had the highest mean WPE (10.6%).
Paper ballot precincts had the smallest mean WPE (2.2%)
New York votes 99% by Lever.
WPE
Type mean median precincts
Paper 2.2 0.9 40
Lever 10.6 10.3 118
DRE 7.1 7.0 360
Punch 6.6 7.3 158
OpScn 6.1 5.5 573
The Final 5 million votes
Final Recorded Vote
Bush 62,040,610 50.73%
Kerry 59,028,439 48.27%
Other 1,224,499 1.00%
Total 122,293,548 100%
Initial 117m votes
Bush 59,834,866 51.02%
Kerry 56,373,514 48.07%
Other 1,073,874 0.91%
Total 117,282,254 100%
Late 5m votes
Bush 2,205,744 44.02%
Kerry 2,654,925 52.98%
Other 150,625 3.00%
Total 5,011,294 100%
Recorded Kerry Votes
Final 48.27% 122.29m
Initial 48.07% 117.28m
Late 52.98% 5.01m
Unadjusted State Exit Polls based on weighted average WPE
Method Kerry Avg WPE Wtd Avg Description
VNS 51.81% 5.95% 7.09% VNS: 4 outliers removed from average
DSS 52.15% 6.73% 7.77% Decision Summary Screen: 4 outliers removed
IMS 51.91% 6.29% 7.37% Input Mgt Screen: no outliers removed
National Exit Poll Timeline (Gender demographic)
3:59pm 50.48% 8349 respondents
7:33pm 50.78% 11027
12:22am 50.78% 13047
Final 47.78% 13660 (matched to initial 117m recorded
Kerry Initial, Late and Final Vote Share
(2-party)
* indicates state had less than 2000 late votes
Final Initial Late Change WPE Exit
Wtd 48.8% 48.5% 54.3% 5.8% 5.8% 51.6%
Unwtd 48.4% 48.4% 52.0% 3.7% 6.0% 51.5%
Weighted
East 56.5% 56.2% 62.4% 6.2% 9.7% 61.3%
Midw 48.1% 48.1% 56.1% 8.1% 3.4% 49.8%
South 42.7% 42.6% 46.6% 4.0% 5.8% 45.6%
West 41.7% 41.7% 41.9% 0.2% 4.8% 44.1%
FarW 53.2% 53.3% 53.0% -0.2% 6.4% 56.4%
Final Initial Late Change WPE Exit
East
CT 55.3% 55.3% 56.3% 1.0% 15.7% 63.3%
DC* 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 0.0% 3.4% 92.2%
DE* 53.8% 53.8% 67.3% 13.4% 15.9% 61.9%
MA 62.7% 62.7% 71.5% 8.8% 5.8% 65.7%
MD 56.6% 56.2% 60.3% 4.1% 8.1% 60.7%
ME* 54.6% 54.5% 87.3% 33.0% 3.8% 56.5%
NH* 50.7% 50.7% 55.8% 5.2% 13.6% 57.6%
NJ 53.4% 53.1% 57.6% 4.5% 9.7% 58.3%
NY 59.3% 58.8% 65.8% 7.0% 11.4% 65.1%
PA 51.3% 51.1% 58.6% 7.5% 8.8% 55.7%
RI 60.6% 60.5% 62.6% 2.1% 4.7% 63.0%
VT* 60.3% 60.3% 48.7% -11.6% 15.0% 68.0%
Final Initial Late Change WPE Exit
Midwest
IA 49.7% 49.5% 62.1% 12.6% 3.0% 51.2%
IL 55.2% 55.1% 70.3% 15.2% 4.4% 57.4%
IN 39.6% 39.5% 62.0% 22.6% 1.5% 40.3%
KS 37.1% 37.0% 42.7% 5.8% 1.7% 38.0%
OH 48.9% 48.7% 56.2% 7.4% 10.9% 54.4%
MI 51.7% 51.7% 58.4% 6.7% 6.3% 54.9%
MN 51.8% 51.8% 47.9% -3.9% 9.3% 56.5%
MO 46.4% 46.3% 63.8% 17.5% 5.8% 49.3%
ND* 36.1% 36.1% 37.4% 1.3% -5.2% 33.4%
NE 33.2% 33.0% 43.6% 10.6% 8.1% 37.3%
OK* 34.4% 34.4% 34.4% 0.0% -1.9% 33.5%
SD 39.1% 39.1% 32.8% -6.3% -4.2% 37.0%
WI 50.2% 50.2% 36.3% -13.9% 4.7% 52.6%
Final Initial Late Change WPE Exit
South
AL* 37.1% 37.1% 67.6% 30.6% 11.3% 42.8%
AR 45.1% 45.0% 48.2% 3.2% 0.5% 45.3%
FL 47.5% 47.5% 50.5% 3.0% 7.6% 51.3%
GA 41.6% 41.6% 46.2% 4.6% 2.2% 42.8%
LA 42.7% 42.6% 79.5% 36.9% 3.8% 44.6%
KY* 40.0% 40.0% 30.2% -9.8% -0.1% 39.9%
MS 40.1% 40.0% 44.2% 4.3% 11.3% 46.2%
NC 43.8% 43.7% 45.4% 1.6% 11.3% 49.4%
SC 41.4% 41.3% 45.1% 3.8% 10.0% 46.4%
TN* 42.8% 42.8% 56.0% 13.2% 0.5% 43.1%
VA 45.9% 45.8% 48.8% 3.0% 7.9% 49.8%
WV 43.5% 43.6% 40.5% -3.0% -5.8% 40.6%
TX 38.5% 38.5% 45.3% 6.8% 4.8% 40.9%
Final Initial Late Change WPE Exit
West
CO 47.6% 47.3% 53.6% 6.3% 6.1% 50.7%
ID* 30.7% 30.7% 15.4% -15.3% 1.0% 31.2%
MT* 39.5% 39.5% 37.0% -2.5% -1.8% 38.6%
NM 49.6% 49.4% 61.4% 11.9% 7.8% 53.5%
NV 48.7% 48.7% 50.4% 1.8% 10.1% 53.8%
UT 26.7% 27.1% 21.4% -5.7% 6.4% 29.9%
WY* 29.7% 29.7% 23.8% -5.9% 4.3% 31.9%
Final Initial Late Change WPE Exit
Far West
AK 36.8% 36.2% 39.0% 2.8% 9.6% 41.7%
AZ 44.7% 44.7% 44.7% -0.1% 4.6% 47.0%
CA 55.0% 55.2% 54.4% -0.8% 10.9% 60.6%
HI* 54.4% 54.4% 82.6% 28.3% 4.7% 56.8%
OR 52.1% 52.0% 54.6% 2.6% 0.0% 52.1%
WA 53.6% 53.5% 57.7% 4.2% 8.4% 57.9%
NY 2004 Election Calculator
Plausible Scenario Assumptions:
95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004
1.22% annual voter mortality
No uncounted votes
Scenario 1:
(12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares)
1.22% annual voter mortality
Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 0% 1.236 16.7% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 3.718 50.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 2.172 29.4% 10% 90% 0%
Nader 95% 0.250 3.4% 64% 17% 19%
Total 6.140 7.376 100% 60.54% 37.98% 1.48%
7.376 4.465 2.801 0.109
Scenario 2:
(Kerry vote shares increased for NY)
Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV na 1.236 16.7% 61% 37% 2%
Gore 95% 3.718 50.4% 94% 5% 1%
Bush 95% 2.172 29.4% 12% 88% 0%
Nader 95% 0.250 3.4% 68% 13% 19%
Total 6.140 7.376 100% 63.45% 35.07% 1.48%
7.376 4.680 2.587 0.109
Scenario 3 (most likely):
Uncounted votes: 5%
Gore and Kerry share of uncounted: 75%
Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 0 1.3 16.8% 61% 37% 2%
Gore 95% 3.96 51.0% 94% 5% 1%
Bush 95% 2.23 28.8% 12% 88% 0%
Other 95% 0.27 3.40% 68% 13% 19%
Total 6.46 7.76 100% 64.0% 34.5% 1.50%
7.76 4.97 2.68 0.12
Sensitivity Analysis
Kerry Kerry share of New voters
%Gore 57% 59% 61% 63% 65%
Voters
Kerry NY Vote Share
98% 65.4% 65.7% 66.0% 66.4% 66.7%
96% 64.3% 64.7% 65.0% 65.3% 65.7%
94% 63.3% 63.7% 64.0% 64.3% 64.7%
92% 62.3% 62.6% 63.0% 63.3% 63.6%
90% 61.3% 61.6% 61.9% 62.3% 62.6%
Kerry Margin
98% 2.50 2.55 2.61 2.66 2.71
96% 2.34 2.39 2.45 2.50 2.55
94% 2.18 2.24 2.29 2.34 2.39
92% 2.03 2.08 2.13 2.18 2.23
90% 1.87 1.92 1.97 2.02 2.08
Gore Gore Voter Turnout in 2004
share 93% 94% 95% 96% 97%
Unctd
Votes Kerry NY Vote Share
85% 64.0% 64.2% 64.3% 64.5% 64.7%
80% 63.8% 64.0% 64.2% 64.3% 64.5%
75% 63.6% 63.8% 64.0% 64.2% 64.3%
70% 63.5% 63.6% 63.8% 64.0% 64.2%
65% 63.3% 63.5% 63.6% 63.8% 64.0%
Kerry Margin
85% 2.29 2.32 2.34 2.37 2.40
80% 2.26 2.29 2.32 2.34 2.37
75% 2.23 2.26 2.29 2.32 2.34
70% 2.20 2.23 2.26 2.29 2.32
65% 2.18 2.20 2.23 2.26 2.29
This table shows how the state exit poll discrepancies declined as they were
adjusted prior to the final. The pristine, unadjusted exit poll data was not
released by Edison-Mitofsky until Jan.2005. The data indicated that the
discrepancies were much greater than for the polls originally downloaded at
12:22am by Jonathan Simon. In other words, the full extent of the apparent
fraud was much greater than the original estimate – but this was not known
until three months after the election.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/WPDConfirmation.htm
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2004NewYorkLeverExitPollDiscepancies.htm
Even highly regarded experts get it wrong once in a while. Richard Hayes
Phillips, who did a comprehensive analysis which proved that Ohio 2004 was
stolen, was no exception when he wrote that the 2004 NY exit polls matched
the recorded vote. RHP made the same mistake that countless others make: he
was referring to the Final Exit Poll – which is always forced to match the
recorded vote. He should have checked the preliminary exit polls and read the
Edison-Mitofsky Jan 2005 report (see below).
In 2000, Gore won the NY recorded vote by 60-35-5%. In 2004, Kerry won NY by
58.5-40.2%. But Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 64-35%, which was matched
by the Best Geo and Composite exit poll timeline results (see below). Based on
the exit polls, Kerry’s NY margin should have been over 2.1 million votes, but
he won the recorded vote by only 1.35 million.
Kerry’s margin was reduced by 750,000 votes, which is 25% of Bush’s 3.0m
recorded vote “mandate”. How could Kerry have won by just an 18% margin when
Gore won by 25%? Where did Bush get his NY votes? It’s an Urban Legend.
Read on.
Everyone knew Kerry was going to win NY easily - especially Karl Rove. Bushco
knew that winning the popular recorded vote was critical in order to make
their “mandate” appear legitimate. They could not have a repeat of 2000 when
Gore won the national recorded vote by 540,000 and NY by 1.7 million votes.
In 2004, all indications were that Kerry would do even better than Gore.
A massive Democratic registration and GOTV effort would bring at least 500,000
new voters. Bush was very unpopular in NY; his NY approval rating was much
lower than his national 48%. So Bush had to find a way to keep Kerry’s margin
down in order to get his popular vote “mandate”.
This analysis shows that Kerry did much better in NY than the recorded
vote indicates. The question is not if votes were stolen from Kerry; the question
is how it happened. Those who claim to “love my Levers” are mistaken to
believe that they are foolproof. They cannot verify and prove that their votes
were counted accurately. In fact, historical evidence indicates that Lever
machine vote counts are highly vulnerable to rigging – and not just in NY.
It’s not a HAVA or Lever vs. Optical-scan issue. The issue is whether NY will
have a verifiable vote count.
Victoria Collier writes in "Votescam": “Many people still in power have yet to
be held accountable for their role in aiding and abetting vote fraud. I'll give
you two important examples. Famous Miami lawyer Ellis Rubin brought the
original Votescam evidence to the Florida assistant State Attorney at the
time, Janet Reno. The evidence included the shaved wheels of lever voting
machines, forged canvass sheets, and pre-printed vote tally sheets. Reno refused
to prosecute, claiming falsely that the statue of limitations had run out on
the crime. Years later, Rubin would tell my father that behind closed doors
Reno had stated that she could not prosecute. Why? Because she would bring
down many of the most powerful people in the state”.
The Edison-Mitofsky state exit poll timeline (see below) shows that discrepancies
declined nationally as they were adjusted for pre-election polls and voter
turnout. The New York exit polls declined from 65% (Best GEO) to 63% (1240am
Composite). And then the final exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote.
The pristine, unadjusted exit poll data was not released by E-M until Jan. 2005.
Their report shows that the unadjusted exit poll discrepancies were greater than
those which were downloaded by Jonathan Simon from the Internet at 12:22am.
In other words, the full extent of the apparent fraud was much greater than
the original estimate – but this was not known until three months after the
election. Yet even the Election Day adjusted exit polls raised many red flags.
Briefly, this is a summary of red flags which indicate that the NY 2004
election was rigged to inflate Bush’s mandate:
Kerry won the NY recorded vote by: 58.5-40.2% (4.314- 2.963m).
There were 7.391m total votes recorded.
1) NY exit polls (unadjusted and adjusted) showed Kerry to be a 64-35% winner.
2) In 2000, Al Gore won the recorded vote by 60-35% (4% to Nader).
3) Returning Nader voters went for Kerry by 3-1 over Bush.
4) In 2000, there were 552,000 late (absentee, provisional, etc.) ballots.
Gore won 65.4%.
5) In 2004, there were 499,000 late votes. Kerry won 65.8%.
6) The National Exit Poll indicated that 10% of Bush 2000 voters defected to
Kerry, while only 8% of Gore voters defected.
7) Kerry won the majority (57-61%) of new voters.
Dan Rather's voting machine expose was a clear example of how mechanical
voting machines can be rigged. In Florida 2000, poor-quality paper used in
punch card machines was a major cause of election fraud in heavily Democratic
precincts. The report illustrated a method used to hack mechanical voting machines(punch card or lever).
Naysayers cherry-picked the final NY pre-election poll in an attempt to promote
the myth that the pre-election polls was correct and the exit polls were way off.
In essence, they are claiming that the final pre-election poll matched a fraud-free
recorded vote. But they can’t provide evidence that the votes were counted
accurately. They failed to consider late absentee and provisional ballots which
provide further evidence that the vote count was bogus.
There are fundamental flaws in their arguments.
1- They failed to consider the NY 2000 vote: Gore 60.2-Bush 35.2-Nader 3.6.
Their argument implies that the 2004 recorded vote was fraud-free and that 100%
of returning Nader 2000 voters defected to Bush - clearly an impossible scenario.
In fact, according to the 12:22am NEP, Kerry won Nader voters by 71-21% and 10%
of Bush voters defected to Kerry while just 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush.
Adjusting the NEP weights based on the NY 2000 recorded vote and assuming
12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry won by 63.6-35.1%.
2- They ignored the theoretical margin of error. It’s well-known that exit polls
are more accurate than pre-election polls. There was a 5.1% discrepancy between
Kerry's NY pre-election (59%) and exit poll (64.1%). Since the MoE is 4% for a
typical 600-sample pre-election state poll, there was a 95% probability that
Kerry's True vote was in the 55-63% range. The NY exit poll 3.2% MoE (30% cluster
effect) implies there was a 95% chance that Kerry's True vote was in the
60.8-67.2% range which would fall within the MoE of both the NY pre-election and
exit poll.
On the other hand, the weighted average of 51 state pre-election polls (adjusted
for undecided voters) matched the National Exit Poll to within 1%.
Once again, it’s the Law of Large Numbers taking effect.
3- They failed to consider that Kerry’s vote share was 10% higher in NY than
nationally. The Election Calculator, which accounts for voter mortality, turnout
and uncounted votes, determined that Kerry won by 64.0-34.5%. The assumptions were
as follows: Gore and Kerry won 75% of the uncounted votes (5% of total cast); Kerry
won 94% of Gore voters, 12% of Bush voters, 61% of new (DNV2k) voters and 68% of
returning Nader/other voters. Sensitivity analysis shows that if Kerry won
90-98% of returning Gore voters and 57-65% of DNV, his NY vote share ranged from 61.3-66.7%.
4- They implied there was zero fraud in claiming that the recorded vote was the
true vote. An analysis of the effects of uncounted and switched votes indicates
that Kerry won by 63-36%. If 2% of total votes cast were uncounted (75% to Kerry),
then 7% of Kerry votes were switched to Bush. The uncounted vote assumption
is lower than the 2.74% national average (NY uses lever voting machines).
5- They failed to consider late votes (absentee, provisional, etc.). There were
a total of 7.36 million votes recorded in NY of which 500,000 were late and not
recorded until a few days after the election. Bush won 58.5% of the initial 6.86m
votes; Kerry won 65.8% of the late 500,000 (very close to his 65% exit poll).
________________________________________________________________________
Implausible Urban Legend: Kerry/Bush 42/56% share of New Voters required for the recorded NY 2004 vote
Determine:
The number and percentage shares of new (DNV) voters necessary to match the NY 2004 recorded vote
Key results:
Approximately 6.16 million NY 2000 voters returned to vote in 2004
There were 1.23 million new voters (DNV in 2000)
To match the NY recorded vote:
Bush needed 689,000 (56%) new voters and Kerry had 516,000 (42%)
Bush needed 56% of new (DNV) voters to match his recorded 40% NY share.
Kerry must have had more than 62% of DNV in NY; his recorded share (58.4%) was 10% higher than his national share (48.4%).
Bush’s required NY recorded new voter share was at least 18% higher than his True new voter share.
Assume:
5% of NY 2000 voters died and 5% did not vote in 2004
There were no uncounted votes
According to the 12:22am National Exit poll, of the 2000 voters who turned out in 2004:
91% of Gore voters were for Kerry
90% of Bush voters were for Bush
71% of Nader/other voters were for Kerry
21% of Nader voters were for Bush
This analysis is confirmed by the all NY Exit Poll measures (unadjusted WPE, Best GEO and Composite).
They indicate that Kerry won NY with 63-65%.
NY Pre-election and Exit Polls
New York Kerry Bush Nader
Recorded vote 58.5% 40.2% 1.3%
Final pre-election poll 57 39 1
Projection 59 40 1
Edison-Mitofsky Exit Poll Measures
WPE (11.4) 64.1% 34.4% 1.5%
Best GEO 65.1 33.8 1.1
Composite 63.1 35.5 1.4
The 2004 NYS Election Calculator
DNV vote share adjusted to match recorded vote
2000 Recorded 2004 Calculated 12:22am
Voted Recd Died Alive Voted Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - - - - 1.23 16.7% 42% 56% 2%
Gore 4.11 0.20 3.91 95% 3.71 50.2% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 2.40 0.12 2.29 95% 2.17 29.3% 10% 90% 0%
Nader 0.31 0.02 0.30 95% 0.28 3.8% 71% 21% 8%
Total 6.82 0.00 6.49 6.16 7.39 100% 58.3% 40.6% 1.1%
Votes 7.39 4.31 3.00 0.08
Final NEP Kerry Vote shares reduced to match recorded vote
Implausible: Kerry's NY vote share far exceeded his national share
2000 Record 2004 Calculated Final
Voted Recd Died Alive Voted Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - - - 1.23 16.7% 53% 45% 2%
Gore 4.11 0.20 3.90 95% 3.71 50.2% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 2.40 0.12 2.28 95% 2.17 29.3% 8% 92% 0%
Nader 0.31 0.02 0.30 95% 0.28 3.8% 71% 21% 8%
Total 6.82 0.34 6.48 6.16 7.39 100% 58.5% 40.3% 1.1%
7.39 4.33 2.98 0.08
_________________________________________________________________________
Voting Machines: Within Precinct Error (WPE)
Mechanical (Lever) precincts had the highest mean WPE (10.6%).
Paper ballot precincts had the smallest mean WPE (2.2%)
New York votes 99% by Lever.
WPE
Type mean median precincts
Paper 2.2 0.9 40
Lever 10.6 10.3 118
DRE 7.1 7.0 360
Punch 6.6 7.3 158
OpScn 6.1 5.5 573
The Final 5 million votes
Final Recorded Vote
Bush 62,040,610 50.73%
Kerry 59,028,439 48.27%
Other 1,224,499 1.00%
Total 122,293,548 100%
Initial 117m votes
Bush 59,834,866 51.02%
Kerry 56,373,514 48.07%
Other 1,073,874 0.91%
Total 117,282,254 100%
Late 5m votes
Bush 2,205,744 44.02%
Kerry 2,654,925 52.98%
Other 150,625 3.00%
Total 5,011,294 100%
Recorded Kerry Votes
Final 48.27% 122.29m
Initial 48.07% 117.28m
Late 52.98% 5.01m
Unadjusted State Exit Polls based on weighted average WPE
Method Kerry Avg WPE Wtd Avg Description
VNS 51.81% 5.95% 7.09% VNS: 4 outliers removed from average
DSS 52.15% 6.73% 7.77% Decision Summary Screen: 4 outliers removed
IMS 51.91% 6.29% 7.37% Input Mgt Screen: no outliers removed
National Exit Poll Timeline (Gender demographic)
3:59pm 50.48% 8349 respondents
7:33pm 50.78% 11027
12:22am 50.78% 13047
Final 47.78% 13660 (matched to initial 117m recorded
Kerry Initial, Late and Final Vote Share
(2-party)
* indicates state had less than 2000 late votes
Final Initial Late Change WPE Exit
Wtd 48.8% 48.5% 54.3% 5.8% 5.8% 51.6%
Unwtd 48.4% 48.4% 52.0% 3.7% 6.0% 51.5%
Weighted
East 56.5% 56.2% 62.4% 6.2% 9.7% 61.3%
Midw 48.1% 48.1% 56.1% 8.1% 3.4% 49.8%
South 42.7% 42.6% 46.6% 4.0% 5.8% 45.6%
West 41.7% 41.7% 41.9% 0.2% 4.8% 44.1%
FarW 53.2% 53.3% 53.0% -0.2% 6.4% 56.4%
Final Initial Late Change WPE Exit
East
CT 55.3% 55.3% 56.3% 1.0% 15.7% 63.3%
DC* 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 0.0% 3.4% 92.2%
DE* 53.8% 53.8% 67.3% 13.4% 15.9% 61.9%
MA 62.7% 62.7% 71.5% 8.8% 5.8% 65.7%
MD 56.6% 56.2% 60.3% 4.1% 8.1% 60.7%
ME* 54.6% 54.5% 87.3% 33.0% 3.8% 56.5%
NH* 50.7% 50.7% 55.8% 5.2% 13.6% 57.6%
NJ 53.4% 53.1% 57.6% 4.5% 9.7% 58.3%
NY 59.3% 58.8% 65.8% 7.0% 11.4% 65.1%
PA 51.3% 51.1% 58.6% 7.5% 8.8% 55.7%
RI 60.6% 60.5% 62.6% 2.1% 4.7% 63.0%
VT* 60.3% 60.3% 48.7% -11.6% 15.0% 68.0%
Final Initial Late Change WPE Exit
Midwest
IA 49.7% 49.5% 62.1% 12.6% 3.0% 51.2%
IL 55.2% 55.1% 70.3% 15.2% 4.4% 57.4%
IN 39.6% 39.5% 62.0% 22.6% 1.5% 40.3%
KS 37.1% 37.0% 42.7% 5.8% 1.7% 38.0%
OH 48.9% 48.7% 56.2% 7.4% 10.9% 54.4%
MI 51.7% 51.7% 58.4% 6.7% 6.3% 54.9%
MN 51.8% 51.8% 47.9% -3.9% 9.3% 56.5%
MO 46.4% 46.3% 63.8% 17.5% 5.8% 49.3%
ND* 36.1% 36.1% 37.4% 1.3% -5.2% 33.4%
NE 33.2% 33.0% 43.6% 10.6% 8.1% 37.3%
OK* 34.4% 34.4% 34.4% 0.0% -1.9% 33.5%
SD 39.1% 39.1% 32.8% -6.3% -4.2% 37.0%
WI 50.2% 50.2% 36.3% -13.9% 4.7% 52.6%
Final Initial Late Change WPE Exit
South
AL* 37.1% 37.1% 67.6% 30.6% 11.3% 42.8%
AR 45.1% 45.0% 48.2% 3.2% 0.5% 45.3%
FL 47.5% 47.5% 50.5% 3.0% 7.6% 51.3%
GA 41.6% 41.6% 46.2% 4.6% 2.2% 42.8%
LA 42.7% 42.6% 79.5% 36.9% 3.8% 44.6%
KY* 40.0% 40.0% 30.2% -9.8% -0.1% 39.9%
MS 40.1% 40.0% 44.2% 4.3% 11.3% 46.2%
NC 43.8% 43.7% 45.4% 1.6% 11.3% 49.4%
SC 41.4% 41.3% 45.1% 3.8% 10.0% 46.4%
TN* 42.8% 42.8% 56.0% 13.2% 0.5% 43.1%
VA 45.9% 45.8% 48.8% 3.0% 7.9% 49.8%
WV 43.5% 43.6% 40.5% -3.0% -5.8% 40.6%
TX 38.5% 38.5% 45.3% 6.8% 4.8% 40.9%
Final Initial Late Change WPE Exit
West
CO 47.6% 47.3% 53.6% 6.3% 6.1% 50.7%
ID* 30.7% 30.7% 15.4% -15.3% 1.0% 31.2%
MT* 39.5% 39.5% 37.0% -2.5% -1.8% 38.6%
NM 49.6% 49.4% 61.4% 11.9% 7.8% 53.5%
NV 48.7% 48.7% 50.4% 1.8% 10.1% 53.8%
UT 26.7% 27.1% 21.4% -5.7% 6.4% 29.9%
WY* 29.7% 29.7% 23.8% -5.9% 4.3% 31.9%
Final Initial Late Change WPE Exit
Far West
AK 36.8% 36.2% 39.0% 2.8% 9.6% 41.7%
AZ 44.7% 44.7% 44.7% -0.1% 4.6% 47.0%
CA 55.0% 55.2% 54.4% -0.8% 10.9% 60.6%
HI* 54.4% 54.4% 82.6% 28.3% 4.7% 56.8%
OR 52.1% 52.0% 54.6% 2.6% 0.0% 52.1%
WA 53.6% 53.5% 57.7% 4.2% 8.4% 57.9%
NY 2004 Election Calculator
Plausible Scenario Assumptions:
95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004
1.22% annual voter mortality
No uncounted votes
Scenario 1:
(12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares)
1.22% annual voter mortality
Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 0% 1.236 16.7% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 3.718 50.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 2.172 29.4% 10% 90% 0%
Nader 95% 0.250 3.4% 64% 17% 19%
Total 6.140 7.376 100% 60.54% 37.98% 1.48%
7.376 4.465 2.801 0.109
Scenario 2:
(Kerry vote shares increased for NY)
Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV na 1.236 16.7% 61% 37% 2%
Gore 95% 3.718 50.4% 94% 5% 1%
Bush 95% 2.172 29.4% 12% 88% 0%
Nader 95% 0.250 3.4% 68% 13% 19%
Total 6.140 7.376 100% 63.45% 35.07% 1.48%
7.376 4.680 2.587 0.109
Scenario 3 (most likely):
Uncounted votes: 5%
Gore and Kerry share of uncounted: 75%
Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 0 1.3 16.8% 61% 37% 2%
Gore 95% 3.96 51.0% 94% 5% 1%
Bush 95% 2.23 28.8% 12% 88% 0%
Other 95% 0.27 3.40% 68% 13% 19%
Total 6.46 7.76 100% 64.0% 34.5% 1.50%
7.76 4.97 2.68 0.12
Sensitivity Analysis
Kerry Kerry share of New voters
%Gore 57% 59% 61% 63% 65%
Voters
Kerry NY Vote Share
98% 65.4% 65.7% 66.0% 66.4% 66.7%
96% 64.3% 64.7% 65.0% 65.3% 65.7%
94% 63.3% 63.7% 64.0% 64.3% 64.7%
92% 62.3% 62.6% 63.0% 63.3% 63.6%
90% 61.3% 61.6% 61.9% 62.3% 62.6%
Kerry Margin
98% 2.50 2.55 2.61 2.66 2.71
96% 2.34 2.39 2.45 2.50 2.55
94% 2.18 2.24 2.29 2.34 2.39
92% 2.03 2.08 2.13 2.18 2.23
90% 1.87 1.92 1.97 2.02 2.08
Gore Gore Voter Turnout in 2004
share 93% 94% 95% 96% 97%
Unctd
Votes Kerry NY Vote Share
85% 64.0% 64.2% 64.3% 64.5% 64.7%
80% 63.8% 64.0% 64.2% 64.3% 64.5%
75% 63.6% 63.8% 64.0% 64.2% 64.3%
70% 63.5% 63.6% 63.8% 64.0% 64.2%
65% 63.3% 63.5% 63.6% 63.8% 64.0%
Kerry Margin
85% 2.29 2.32 2.34 2.37 2.40
80% 2.26 2.29 2.32 2.34 2.37
75% 2.23 2.26 2.29 2.32 2.34
70% 2.20 2.23 2.26 2.29 2.32
65% 2.18 2.20 2.23 2.26 2.29
This table shows how the state exit poll discrepancies declined as they were
adjusted prior to the final. The pristine, unadjusted exit poll data was not
released by Edison-Mitofsky until Jan.2005. The data indicated that the
discrepancies were much greater than for the polls originally downloaded at
12:22am by Jonathan Simon. In other words, the full extent of the apparent
fraud was much greater than the original estimate – but this was not known
until three months after the election.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/WPDConfirmation.htm