What Obama needs to Clinch: The Simple MATH
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator.doc

To clinch by June 3, Obama needs a little over 1 Super Delegate per day.
He has averaged 3 SDs/day over the last 3 weeks.

Obama currently leads Clinton by 1660.5-1499.5 in pledged delegates.

On Feb. 20, Clinton led by 81 super delegates (246-165).
Obama now leads by 318.5-280.5
He will very likely win the nomination once he reaches 325 SDs.

If Obama wins 48% of the votes in the remaining primaries, he will gain approximately 41 unpledged delegates. He would then need just 6 of 198 uncommitted super delegates to reach the 2026 required for the nomination.


Obama has:
1660.5 Pledged Delegates
+318.5 Super Delegates
-----
1979.0 Current Delegates
+ 41.0 Projected Pledged
-----
2020.0 Total Projected
+ 6.0 Uncommitted Super Delegates
-----
2026 Clinches Nomination

Alternative Calculation:
1660.5 Pledged Delegates
+ 41.0 Projected Pledged
-----
1701.5 Total Pledged
+318.5 Current Super
-----
2020.0 Total Projected
+ 6.0 Uncommitted Super Delegates
-----
2026 Clinches Nomination

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/