TruthIsAll
10-18-2009, 09:12 AM
A Recursive True Vote Model (1968-2008)
TruthIsAll
In the first game of the 1954 World Series, Willie Mays made a miracle over-the-head
catch. He implicitly calculated the mathematical trajectory of the ball at the crack
of the bat using his built-in computer.
http://www.richardcharnin.com/mayscatch.jpg
Calculating the True Vote is more complex; the trajectory equation changes over
time as the dynamics of the electorate change. The current election equation is a
recursive function of the prior. It's all in the MATH.
In the 11 elections from 1968 to 2008, the Republicans won the recorded vote by an average 48.9-45.3%. The Democrats won the True Vote by 49.0-45.3%, an EXACT REVERSAL.
Cause of the 7.6% discrepancy: 1)phantom returning voters and 2) uncounted votes.
In each election, Final National Exit Poll vote shares are assumed with the exception of 2004. The Final NEP 43/37% Bush/Gore returning voter mix was changed from 41/39% at 12:22am, but this was not sufficient by itself to force a match to the recorded vote (Bush 51-48). The 12:22am vote shares had to be adjusted in favor of Bush as well. For this reason, plausible 12:22am shares are used to calculate the True Vote (Kerry led at 12:22am by 51-48%).
The Recursive True Vote Model calculates the True Vote for all elections since 1968.
Data input (shown below) consists of recorded and total votes cast, Final National
Exit Poll shares (1988-2008); estimated vote shares (1968-1984) required to match
the recorded vote, annual voter mortality and previous election voter turnout. The
returning voter mix is calculated using the following methods -depending on the
objective:
Method 1 - forced match
The Final NEP adjusts the returning voter mix to force a match to the recorded vote.
This implicitly assumes that all elections, not just the current, are fraud-free.
The process of matching to the official vote required millions of phantom voters.
In 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 turnout of previous Bush voters exceeded 100%.
Therefore, the official vote counts cannot be correct.
Method 2 - prior recorded
The mix is based on prior recorded votes and does not include millions of uncounted
votes.
Method 3 - prior votes cast
(True Vote): The mix is based on total votes cast in the previous and current
election. The cumulative impact of earlier elections is not taken into account.
Method 4 - Prior True Vote
(Recursive Model)
The perpetuation of fraud from prior elections election is eliminated.
Starting with the 1968 election, the model sequentially derives a feasible returning
vote mix. True vote shares cast in the previous election are reduced by voter
mortality and turnout in the current election and new voters are added to the mix.
Except for the 2004 election, the model used Final National Exit Poll vote share.
In 2004 the Final NEP vote shares were radically changed to match the official
tally. Therefore, preliminary 12:22am NEP vote shares were used to calculate the
True Vote.
The model indicates that two elections were definitely stolen (2000 and 2004)and
probably two others (1968 and 1988) as well. In order to match the official vote,
there had to be an average 94% turnout of returning Democrats and 106% of
Republicans. The average Republican turnout was 114% when Nixon and Bush were the
incumbents; it was 98% otherwise. The average True Vote discrepancy was 10.3% when
Nixon and Bush were incumbents; it was 3.6% otherwise.
In 1968, Nixon won the official vote by 0.5m.
Humphrey won the True Vote by 2 million.
There were 6 million uncounted votes.
In 1972, Nixon won a 17 million landslide with 61.8% of the vote.
His True Vote share was 57%.
There were 9.5 million uncounted votes.
In 1976, Carter won the official vote by 1.7m.
He won the True Vote by 6 million with 53%.
There were 6.7 million uncounted votes.
In 1980, Reagan defeated Carter by 8 million votes.
There were 6.4 million uncounted votes.
In 1984, Reagan defeated Mondale by 17 million votes.
There were 9.2 million uncounted votes.
In 1988, Bush won the official vote by 7.0m.
Dukakis may have won a squeaker.
There were 10.6 million uncounted votes.
In 1992, Clinton won the official vote by 6m.
He won the True Vote by over 20 million.
There were 9.5 million uncounted votes.
Independent candidate Ross Perot had 19% of the recorded vote.
In 1996, Clinton won the official vote by 8m.
He won the True Vote by 16 million.
There were 8.7 million uncounted votes.
Independent candidate Ross Perot had 10% of the vote.
In 2000, Gore won the official vote by 0.54 million.
He won the True Vote by 4 million.
There were 5.4 million uncounted votes.
But he lost in Scotus by ONE vote.
In 2004, Bush won the official vote by 3.0m.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million.
The Final National Exit Poll forced a match to the recorded vote.
It had an impossible 43/37% Bush/Gore returning voter split.
There were 3.4 million net uncounted votes.
HAVA guess how many were stuffed or switched?
In 2008, Obama won the official vote by 9.5m.
He won the True Vote by over 20 million.
The Final National Exit Poll forced a match to the recorded vote.
It had an impossible 46/37% Bush/Kerry returning voter split.
Calculated Democratic Vote Shares (1968-2008)
Vote Share Discrepancies (1968-2008)
True Vote vs. Recorded Vote Margin (1968-2008)
In mathematical terms,
True Vote for candidate k in election i is sum product of the mix and vote shares.
i = election index, where i=0,10 (1968 to 2008)
j = new and returning voter index (1= New, 2=Dem, 3=Rep, 4=Other)
k = share of new and returning voters (1=Dem, 2=Rep, 3=Other)
Mix (i,k) = new and returning voter share (j) of election (i-1) total votes cast
NEP (i, j, k) = National Exit Poll (i) shares (k) of new and returning voters (j)
TV (i, k) = ĺ Mix (i, j)* NEP(i, j, k), j=1,4; k =1,3
2008 True Vote
TV (10,1) = Obama = 58.0%
TV (10,2) = McCain = 40.3%
TV (10,3) = Other = 1.7%%
2004 Returning Voter shares of 2008 Total Cast
Mix (10,1) = DNV = 12.43%
Mix (10,2) = Kerry = 46.87%
Mix (10,3) = Bush = 39.52%
Mix (10,4) = Other = 1.18%
Obama shares of new and returning voters
NEP (10,1,1) = 71% of DNV
NEP (10,2,1) = 89% of Kerry
NEP (10,3,1) = 17% of Bush
NEP (10,4,1) = 66% of Other
McCain Vote Shares
NEP (10,1,2) = 27% of DNV
NEP (10,2,2) = 9% of Kerry
NEP (10,3,2) = 82% of Bush
NEP (10,4,2) = 24% of Other
Other Vote Shares
NEP (1,1,3) = 2% of DNV
NEP (1,2,3) = 2% of Kerry
NEP (1.3,3) = 1% of Bush
NEP (1.4,3) = 8% of Other
[code]
Final NEP Summary 1972-2008
Recorded Match Margin Final NEP Returning Voter Mix Turnout to match
Dem Rep Dem Rep Error DNV Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other
2008 52.9% 45.6% 52.6% 45.6% 0.24% 13.0% 37.0% 46.0% 4.0% 87% 103% 451%
2004 48.3% 50.7% 48.5% 51.1% 0.17% 17.0% 37.0% 43.0% 3.0% 93% 110% 98%
2000 48.4% 47.9% 48.4% 47.8% -0.05% 18.0% 41.0% 33.0% 8.0% 96% 93% 92%
1996 49.2% 40.7% 49.3% 40.7% -0.11% 13.0% 38.0% 31.0% 18.0% 86% 80% 80%
1992 43.0% 37.4% 43.0% 37.5% 0.00% 18.3% 28.0% 53.0% 0.7% 74% 119% 85%
1988 45.6% 53.4% 45.6% 53.3% -0.05% 8.4% 33.0% 58.0% 0.6% 85% 103% 93%
1984 40.6% 58.8% 40.6% 58.7% -0.12% 16.0% 34.0% 44.0% 6.0% 93% 98% 81%
1980 41.0% 50.7% 41.0% 50.7% -0.01% 16.0% 42.0% 41.0% 1.0% 94% 95% 59%
1976 50.1% 48.0% 50.0% 48.1% 0.13% 14.5% 30.0% 53.0% 2.5% 91% 96% 89%
1972 36.2% 60.7% 36.2% 60.7% 0.04% 11.0% 35.0% 44.0% 10.0% 92% 113% 83%
1968 42.9% 43.6% 42.9% 43.6% 0.0% - - - -
- - -
Avg 45.3% 48.9% 45.3% 48.9% 0.00% 14.5% 35.5% 44.6% 5.4% 89% 101% 121%
True Vote Summary 1972-2008
Recorded True Vote Margin True Returning Voter Mix Turnout to match
Dem Rep Dem Rep Error DNV Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other
2008 52.9% 45.6% 58.0% 40.3% -10.5% 12.4% 46.9% 39.5% 1% 87% 103% 451%
2004 48.3% 50.7% 53.5% 45.1% -10.9% 17.9% 41.3% 37.7% 3% 93% 110% 98%
2000 48.4% 47.9% 50.3% 46.0% -3.9% 13.6% 46.1% 32.0% 8% 96% 93% 92%
1996 49.2% 40.7% 53.4% 37.1% -7.8% 9.4% 46.2% 27.9% 17% 86% 80% 80%
1992 43.0% 37.4% 50.9% 30.8% -14.6% 16.4% 41.5% 41.2% 1% 74% 119% 85%
1988 45.6% 53.4% 49.6% 49.3% -8.1% 11.0% 37.5% 50.9% 1% 85% 103% 93%
1984 40.6% 58.8% 42.1% 57.2% -3.1% 17.6% 35.2% 40.3% 7% 93% 98% 81%
1980 41.0% 50.7% 42.7% 48.9% -3.5% 16.8% 44.1% 37.6% 1% 94% 95% 59%
1976 50.1% 48.0% 53.0% 45.2% -5.7% 11.7% 35.7% 50.0% 3% 91% 96% 89%
1972 36.2% 60.7% 40.4% 56.6% -8.2% 19.5% 36.5% 33.7% 10% 92% 113% 83%
1968 42.9% 43.6% 45.3% 41.9% -4.1% - - - - - - -
Avg 45.3% 48.9% 49.0% 45.3% -7.3% 14.6% 41.1% 39.1% 5.2% 89% 101% 121%
2008
Likely voter (LV) pre-election polls are a subset of Registered voter (RV) polls.
LV polls exclude many newly registered voters.
In the last 5 elections, Democrats won new voters by a 15% average margin.
Obviously, LV polls understate the Democratic vote in high-turnout elections.
In 2004, there were 22 million new voters. Kerry won the group by nearly 20%.
Obama won new voters by 71-27%.
Pre-election LV tracking polls had Obama leading by 50-43% before undecided voters were allocated (UVA).
Pre-election RV polls had Obama leading by 53-40% before UVA.
With UVA, Obama was leading by 57-42%.
Obama won the True Vote with a 58% share, a 23 million-vote landslide of epic proportions.
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 97%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 2008 National Exit Poll Voter %
2004 2004 2004 2008 2008 Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 17.1 13% 71% 27% 2% -
Kerry 48.3% 62.2 59.0 56.1 54.4 48.6 37% 89 9 2 87
Bush 50.7% 63.1 62.0 58.9 57.2 60.5 46% 17 82 1 103
Other 1.0% 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 5.3 4% 66 26 8 451
Margin
Total 126.5 122.3 116.2 112.7 131.5 Share 52.6% 45.6% 1.8% 7.0%
Vote 69.2 59.9 2.3 9.2
Recorded Share 52.9% 45.6% 1.5% 7.3%
Vote 131.5 69.5 60.0 2.0 9.6
Diff Error 0.2%
Method: True Vote 95% 97%
True Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 2008 Vote Share
2004 2004 2004 2008 2008 Turnout Mix% Obama McCain Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 16.4 12.4% 71% 27% 2% -
Kerry 53.6% 67.4 59.0 64.1 62.1 62.1 47.0 89 9 2 97%
Bush 45.0% 56.6 62.0 53.8 52.2 52.2 39.4 17 82 1 97%
Other 1.3% 1.7 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.2 66 26 8 97%
Total 125.7 122.3 119.4 115.9 132.3 Share 58.1% 40.2% 1.7% 17.9%
Vote 76.9 53.2 2.2 23.7
Recorded Share 52.9% 45.6% 1.5%
Vote 131.5 69.5 60.0 2.0
Bush Kerry Turnout Share of Obama Share of DNV
Turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Bush 69% 70% 71% 72% 73%
Obama Share Obama Share
90% 59.0% 59.2% 59.4% 59.6% 59.7% 19% 58.6% 58.8% 58.9% 59.0% 59.1%
92% 58.6% 58.8% 58.9% 59.1% 59.3% 18% 58.3% 58.4% 58.5% 58.6% 58.8%
94% 58.2% 58.3% 58.5% 58.7% 58.9% 17% 57.9% 58.0% 58.1% 58.2% 58.4%
96% 57.7% 57.9% 58.1% 58.2% 58.4% 16% 57.5% 57.6% 57.7% 57.8% 58.0%
98% 57.3% 57.5% 57.6% 57.8% 58.0% 15% 57.1% 57.2% 57.3% 57.4% 57.6%
Obama Margin Obama Margin
90% 26.2 26.6 27.1 27.5 28.0 19% 24.4 24.6 24.7 24.9 25.0
92% 25.0 25.4 25.9 26.4 26.8 18% 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.4 24.5
94% 23.8 24.3 24.7 25.2 25.7 17% 23.3 23.5 23.7 23.8 24.0
96% 22.6 23.1 23.6 24.0 24.5 16% 22.8 23.0 23.2 23.3 23.5
98% 21.5 21.9 22.4 22.9 23.3 15% 22.3 22.5 22.6 22.8 23.0
Bush
Turnout Obam Share of DNV Mortality Kerry Turnout
69% 70% 71% 72% 73% 95% 96% 97% 98% 99%
Obama Share Obama Share
90% 59.3% 59.5% 59.6% 59.8% 59.9% 6.0% 58.1% 58.2% 58.2% 58.3% 58.4%
92% 58.9% 59.1% 59.2% 59.3% 59.5% 5.5% 58.0% 58.1% 58.2% 58.3% 58.3%
94% 58.5% 58.6% 58.8% 58.9% 59.0% 5.0% 57.9% 58.0% 58.1% 58.2% 58.3%
96% 58.1% 58.2% 58.3% 58.5% 58.6% 4.5% 57.9% 58.0% 58.0% 58.1% 58.2%
98% 57.6% 57.8% 57.9% 58.0% 58.1% 4.0% 57.8% 57.9% 58.0% 58.1% 58.1%
Obama Margin Obama Margin
90% 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.2 6.0% 23.6 23.8 24.0 24.3 24.5
92% 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.8 27.0 5.5% 23.4 23.6 23.9 24.1 24.3
94% 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.6 25.8 5.0% 23.2 23.4 23.7 23.9 24.1
96% 23.9 24.1 24.3 24.4 24.6 4.5% 23.0 23.3 23.5 23.7 24.0
98% 22.8 22.9 23.1 23.2 23.4 4.0% 22.8 23.1 23.3 23.5 23.8
2004
Bush had an 48% approval rating on Election Day. There were 22 million new voters
who split 3-2 for Kerry. Returning Gore voters were out for blood. Nader voters were
defecting to Kerry. It should have been a slam-dunk - and it was. Kerry won the True
Vote by over 10 million with better than a 53% share. But only the recorded vote
counts. Bush had a 3 million recorded vote “mandate”.
To match the recorded vote, the exit pollsters had to adjust the returning Bush/Gore
voter mix in the Final National Exit Poll to an impossible 43/37% - which meant
there were 52.6m returning Bush voters. But Bush only had 50.5 million votes in
2000. Approximately 48 million were still alive and 47 million voted in 2004.
However, just changing the mix was not sufficient to match Bush's official 62
million tally. The exit pollsters also had to raise Bush vote shares from the
12:22am NEP. His share of new voters jumped from 41% to 45%; Gore voters from 8% to
10%; Bush voters from 90% to 91%. It makes no sense to apply the bogus Final 2004
NEP (13660 respondents) vote shares to calculate the True Vote. The 12:22am update
(13047 respondents) shares are used.
According to the Final NEP, Bush needed an impossible 110% turnout of returning Bush
2000 voters to match the official vote.
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 98%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 2004 National Exit Poll Voter %
2000 2000 2000 2004 2004 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 20.8 17% 54% 45% 1% -
Gore 48.4% 55.3 51.0 48.5 47.5 45.2 37% 90 10 0 93
Bush 47.9% 51.8 50.5 47.9 47.0 52.6 43% 9 91 0 110
Other 3.8% 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.7 3% 71 21 8 98
Margin
Total 111.2 105.4 100.1 98.1 122.3 Share 48.5% 51.1% 0.4% -2.6%
Vote 59.3 62.5 0.5 -3.2
Recorded Share 48.3% 50.7% 1.0% -2.5%
Vote 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2 -3.0
Error 0.2%
Method: True Vote 95% 98%
True Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 2004 Vote Share
2000 2000 2000 2004 2004 Turnout Mix% Kerry Bush Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 22.6 17.9% 57% 41% 2% -
Gore 50.5% 56.0 51.0 53.2 52.1 52.1 41.5 91 8 1 98%
Bush 45.8% 50.8 50.5 48.2 47.3 47.3 37.6 10 90 0 98%
Other 3.7% 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.0 64 17 19 98%
Total 110.8 105.4 105.3 103.2 125.7 Share 53.6% 45.0% 1.3% 8.6%
Vote 67.4 56.6 1.7 10.8
Recorded Share 48.3% 50.7% 1.0%
Vote 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2
Bush Gore Turnout Share of Kerry Share of DNV
Turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Bush 55% 56% 57% 58% 59%
Kerry Share Kerry Share
90% 53.9% 54.2% 54.5% 54.8% 55.1% 12% 54.0% 54.2% 54.4% 54.6% 54.7%
92% 53.6% 53.9% 54.1% 54.4% 54.7% 11% 53.7% 53.8% 54.0% 54.2% 54.4%
94% 53.2% 53.5% 53.8% 54.1% 54.4% 10% 53.3% 53.5% 53.6% 53.8% 54.0%
96% 52.8% 53.1% 53.4% 53.7% 54.0% 9% 52.9% 53.1% 53.3% 53.4% 53.6%
98% 52.5% 52.8% 53.1% 53.4% 53.6% 8% 52.5% 52.7% 52.9% 53.1% 53.2%
Kerry Margin Kerry Margin
90% 11.7 12.4 13.1 13.8 14.5 12% 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.2
92% 10.8 11.5 12.2 12.9 13.6 11% 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.8
94% 9.8 10.6 11.3 12.0 12.7 10% 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.3
96% 8.9 9.6 10.3 11.1 11.8 9% 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.6 10.8
98% 8.0 8.7 9.4 10.1 10.8 8% 9.4 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.3
Bush
Turnout Kerry Share of DNV Mortality Gore Turnout
55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 96% 97% 98% 99% 100%
Kerry Share Kerry Share
90% 54.7% 54.9% 55.1% 55.3% 55.5% 6.0% 53.4% 53.5% 53.7% 53.8% 54.0%
92% 54.3% 54.5% 54.7% 54.9% 55.1% 5.5% 53.4% 53.5% 53.7% 53.8% 53.9%
94% 54.0% 54.2% 54.4% 54.6% 54.7% 5.0% 53.4% 53.5% 53.6% 53.8% 53.9%
96% 53.6% 53.8% 54.0% 54.2% 54.4% 4.5% 53.3% 53.5% 53.6% 53.8% 53.9%
98% 53.3% 53.5% 53.6% 53.8% 54.0% 4.0% 53.3% 53.5% 53.6% 53.7% 53.9%
Kerry Margin Kerry Margin
90% 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.1 6.0% 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.3 11.6
92% 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.1 5.5% 10.2 10.5 10.9 11.2 11.6
94% 12.2 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.2 5.0% 10.1 10.5 10.8 11.2 11.6
96% 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.2 4.5% 10.1 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.5
98% 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.3 4.0% 10.0 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.5
2000
Gore was running coming off a prior Clinton landslide.
Slick Willie still enjoyed high approval ratings - despite that cheap cigar.
There were 5.4 million net (of stuffed) uncounted votes. Figure 75% to Gore.
He won the True Vote by approximately 5 million.
It was the most outrageous theft in history-until 2004.
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 96%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 2000 National Exit Poll Voter %
1996 1996 1996 2000 2000 Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 19.0 18% 52 43 5 -
Clinton 49.2% 54.0 47.4 45.0 43.2 43.2 41% 82 15 3 96
Dole 40.7% 41.2 39.2 37.2 35.7 34.8 33% 7 91 2 93
Perot 10.1% 9.9 9.7 9.2 8.8 8.4 8% 39 49 12 92
Margin
Total 105.0 96.3 91.5 87.8 105.4 Share 48.4% 47.8% 3.8% 0.6%
Vote 51.0 50.4 4.0 0.6
Recorded Share 48.4% 47.9% 3.8% 0.5%
Vote 105.4 51.0 50.5 4.0 0.5
Error -0.1%
Method: True Vote 95% 96%
True Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 2000 Vote Share
1996 1996 1996 2000 2000 Turnout Mix% Gore Bush Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 15.1 13.6% 52% 43% 5% -
Clinton 53.9% 56.6 47.4 53.7 51.6 51.6 46.6 82 15 3 96%
Dole 37.1% 38.9 39.2 37.0 35.5 35.5 32.0 7 91 2 96%
Perot 9.0% 9.5 9.7 9.0 8.7 8.7 7.8 39 49 12 96%
Total 105.0 96.3 99.8 95.8 110.8 Share 50.5% 45.8% 3.7% 4.7%
Vote 56.0 50.8 4.1 5.2
Recorded Share 48.4% 47.9% 3.8%
Vote 105.4 51.0 50.5 4.0
Dole Clinton Turnout Share of Gore Share of DNV
Turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Dole 50% 51% 52% 53% 54%
Gore Share Gore Share
90% 50.6% 50.9% 51.1% 51.4% 51.7% 9% 50.9% 51.0% 51.2% 51.3% 51.4%
92% 50.3% 50.6% 50.8% 51.1% 51.4% 8% 50.6% 50.7% 50.9% 51.0% 51.1%
94% 50.0% 50.3% 50.5% 50.8% 51.1% 7% 50.3% 50.4% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8%
96% 49.7% 49.9% 50.2% 50.5% 50.8% 6% 49.9% 50.1% 50.2% 50.3% 50.5%
98% 49.4% 49.6% 49.9% 50.2% 50.5% 5% 49.6% 49.8% 49.9% 50.0% 50.2%
Gore Margin Gore Margin
90% 5.4 6.0 6.7 7.3 7.9 9% 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.2
92% 4.7 5.4 6.0 6.6 7.2 8% 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.9
94% 4.0 4.7 5.3 5.9 6.5 7% 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5
96% 3.4 4.0 4.6 5.2 5.9 6% 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.2
98% 2.7 3.3 3.9 4.5 5.2 5% 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.8
Dole
Turnout Gore Share of DNV Mortality Clinton Turnout
50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 94% 95% 96% 97% 98%
Gore Share Gore Share
90% 51.1% 51.3% 51.4% 51.6% 51.7% 6.0% 50.3% 50.4% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8%
92% 50.8% 51.0% 51.1% 51.3% 51.4% 5.5% 50.2% 50.4% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8%
94% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8% 51.0% 51.1% 5.0% 50.2% 50.4% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8%
96% 50.3% 50.4% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8% 4.5% 50.2% 50.4% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8%
98% 50.0% 50.1% 50.2% 50.4% 50.5% 4.0% 50.2% 50.4% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8%
Gore Margin Gore Margin
90% 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.6 6.0% 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.9
92% 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.9 5.5% 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.9
94% 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.2 5.0% 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.9
96% 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5 4.5% 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.8
98% 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.0% 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.8
1996
Clinton enjoyed high popularity in a recovering economy; the Reagan/Bush deficit turned into a surplus.
Clinton won a major landslide in 1992 with Independent Perot capturing 20% of the
vote. This time Perot had just 10%.
Approximately 42% of returning Perot voters defected to Dole and 32% to Clinton.
But Clinton's True Vote share increased from 51% to nearly 54%.
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 88%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1996 National Exit Poll Voter %
1992 1992 1992 1996 1996 Turnout Mix Clinton Dole Perot Turnout
DNV - - - - 12.5 13% 55% 33% 12% -
Clinton 43.0% 52.0 44.9 42.7 37.5 36.6 38% 85 9 6 86
Bush 37.4% 41.0 39.1 37.1 32.7 29.8 31% 15 82 3 80
Perot 19.5% 20.9 20.4 19.4 17.1 17.3 18% 32 42 26 89
Margin
Total 113.9 104.4 99.2 87.3 96.3 Share 49.9% 40.7% 9.5% 9.2%
Vote 48.0 39.2 9.1 8.8
Recorded Share 49.2% 40.7% 10.1% 8.5%
Vote 96.3 47.4 39.2 9.7 8.2
Error -0.6%
Method: True Vote 95% 88%
True Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1996 Vote Share
1992 1992 1992 1996 1996 Turnout Mix% Clinton Dole Perot Turnout
DNV - - - - 9.8 9.4% 55% 33% 12% -
Clinton 50.9% 58.0 44.9 55.1 48.5 48.5 46.2 85 9 6 88%
Bush 30.8% 35.0 39.1 33.3 29.3 29.3 27.9 15 82 3 88%
Perot 18.3% 20.9 20.4 19.8 17.4 17.4 16.6 32 42 26 88%
Total 113.9 104.4 108.2 95.2 105.0 Share 53.9% 37.1% 9.0% 16.8%
Vote 56.6 38.9 9.5 17.6
Recorded Share 49.2% 40.7% 10.1%
Vote 96.3 47.4 39.2 9.7
Bush Clinton Turnout Share of Clinton Share of DNV
Turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Bush 53% 54% 55% 56% 57%
Clinton Share Clinton Share
90% 53.9% 54.3% 54.6% 54.9% 55.2% 17% 54.2% 54.3% 54.4% 54.5% 54.6%
92% 53.7% 54.0% 54.3% 54.6% 54.9% 16% 54.0% 54.1% 54.2% 54.2% 54.3%
94% 53.4% 53.7% 54.1% 54.4% 54.7% 15% 53.7% 53.8% 53.9% 54.0% 54.1%
96% 53.2% 53.5% 53.8% 54.1% 54.4% 14% 53.4% 53.5% 53.6% 53.7% 53.8%
98% 52.9% 53.2% 53.6% 53.9% 54.2% 13% 53.1% 53.2% 53.3% 53.4% 53.5%
Clinton Margin Clinton Margin
90% 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.4 20.0 17% 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4
92% 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.4 16% 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.1
94% 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.2 18.8 15% 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.8
96% 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.2 14% 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5
98% 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.7 13% 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.2
Bush
Turnout Clinton Share of DNV Mortality Clinton Turnout
53% 54% 55% 56% 57% 86% 87% 88% 89% 90%
Clinton Share Clinton Share
90% 53.4% 53.5% 53.6% 53.7% 53.8% 6.0% 53.6% 53.7% 53.9% 54.0% 54.2%
92% 53.2% 53.3% 53.4% 53.4% 53.5% 5.5% 53.6% 53.7% 53.9% 54.0% 54.2%
94% 53.0% 53.0% 53.1% 53.2% 53.3% 5.0% 53.6% 53.7% 53.9% 54.0% 54.2%
96% 52.7% 52.8% 52.9% 52.9% 53.0% 4.5% 53.6% 53.7% 53.9% 54.0% 54.2%
98% 52.5% 52.5% 52.6% 52.7% 52.7% 4.0% 53.5% 53.7% 53.9% 54.0% 54.2%
Clinton Margin Clinton Margin
90% 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.2 6.0% 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.3
92% 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.6 5.5% 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.3
94% 15.7 15.8 15.9 15.9 16.0 5.0% 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.2
96% 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.4 4.5% 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.2
98% 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.8 4.0% 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.2
1992
Bush was running as a very unpopular incumbent (S&L, Iran-Contra, exploding deficit,
imploding economy. As the challenger, Clinton was poised to win late undecided
voters and nearly 20 million new voters. Perot was running as a strong Independent
candidate - mostly pulling votes from Bush. The official vote indicated a 6 million
margin. But it was actually close to a 22 million landslide. Clinton had 51%, Perot
18%, Bush 31%. Without Perot, it probably would have been 57-43%.
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 98%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1992 National Exit Poll Voter %
1988 1988 1988 1992 1992 Turnout Mix Clinton Bush Perot Turnout
DNV - - - - 19.1 18% 46% 25% 29% -
Dukakis 45.6% 49.8 41.8 39.7 38.9 29.2 28% 83 5 12 74
Bush 53.4% 51.5 48.9 46.4 45.5 55.3 53% 21 59 20 119
Other 1.0% 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 1% 32 30 38 85
Margin
Total 102.3 91.6 87.0 85.3 104.4 Share 43.0% 37.5% 19.5% 5.6%
Vote 44.9 39.1 20.4 5.8
Recorded Share 43.0% 37.4% 19.5% 5.6%
Vote 104.4 44.9 39.1 20.4 5.8
Error 0.0%
Method: True Vote 95% 98%
True Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1992 Vote Share
1988 1988 1988 1992 1992 Turnout Mix% Clinton Bush Perot Turnout
DNV - - - - 18.7 16.4 46% 25% 29% -
Dukakis 49.6% 50.7 41.8 48.2 47.2 47.2 41.5 83 5 12 98%
Bush 49.3% 50.4 48.9 47.9 46.9 46.9 41.2 21 59 20 98%
Other 1.1% 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 32 30 38 98%
Total 102.2 91.6 97.1 95.2 113.9 Share 50.9% 30.8% 18.3% 20.2%
Vote 58.0 35.0 20.9 23.0
Recorded Share 43.0% 37.4% 19.5%
Vote 104.4 44.9 39.1 20.4
Bush Dukakis Turnout Share of Clinton Share of DNV
Turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Bush 44% 45% 46% 47% 48%
Clinton Share Clinton Share
90% 50.5% 50.8% 51.1% 51.4% 51.8% 23% 51.4% 51.6% 51.7% 51.9% 52.1%
92% 50.3% 50.6% 50.9% 51.2% 51.5% 22% 51.0% 51.2% 51.3% 51.5% 51.7%
94% 50.1% 50.4% 50.7% 51.0% 51.3% 21% 50.6% 50.8% 50.9% 51.1% 51.2%
96% 49.9% 50.2% 50.5% 50.8% 51.1% 20% 50.2% 50.3% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8%
98% 49.7% 50.0% 50.3% 50.6% 50.9% 19% 49.8% 49.9% 50.1% 50.3% 50.4%
Clinton Margin Clinton Margin
90% 23.0 23.6 24.1 24.7 25.2 23% 23.5 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.3
92% 22.5 23.0 23.6 24.1 24.7 22% 23.1 23.2 23.4 23.6 23.8
94% 21.9 22.4 23.0 23.5 24.1 21% 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.3
96% 21.3 21.9 22.4 23.0 23.5 20% 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.7 22.9
98% 20.8 21.3 21.9 22.4 23.0 19% 21.6 21.8 22.0 22.2 22.4
Bush
Turnout Share of DNV Mortality Dukakis Turnout
44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 96% 97% 98% 99% 100%
Clinton Share Clinton Share
90% 51.4% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2% 6.0% 50.6% 50.7% 50.9% 51.0% 51.2%
92% 51.2% 51.4% 51.5% 51.7% 51.9% 5.5% 50.6% 50.7% 50.9% 51.0% 51.2%
94% 51.0% 51.2% 51.3% 51.5% 51.7% 5.0% 50.6% 50.8% 50.9% 51.1% 51.2%
96% 50.8% 51.0% 51.1% 51.3% 51.5% 4.5% 50.6% 50.8% 50.9% 51.1% 51.3%
98% 50.6% 50.8% 50.9% 51.1% 51.2% 4.0% 50.7% 50.8% 51.0% 51.1% 51.3%
Clinton Margin Clinton Margin
90% 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.7 6.0% 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.5
92% 24.2 24.4 24.7 24.9 25.1 5.5% 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.5
94% 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.3 24.5 5.0% 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.5
96% 23.1 23.3 23.5 23.7 23.9 4.5% 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.5
98% 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.3 4.0% 22.4 22.7 22.9 23.2 23.5
1988
This election marked the beginning of the Bush reign of terror. The Iran-Contra
scandal and a sliding economy had taken it toll on Reagan/Bush. Dukakis was the
early favorite. But as this was a Bush running; the Mighty Wurlitzer was in place.
CNN ambushed Dukakis in the first question of the first debate by letting Willie
Horton loose. But Dukakis may have won anyway. If the 10.6 million (net of stuffed)
uncounted votes had been counted, it would have been much closer than the bogus
official 7 million Bush margin. The exit polls showed a dead-heat.
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 94%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1988 National Exit Poll Voter %
1984 1984 1984 1988 1988 Turnout Mix Dukakis Bush Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 7.7 8% 47% 51% 2% -
Mondale 40.6% 44.5 37.6 35.7 33.6 30.2 33% 92 7 1 85
Reagan 58.8% 56.7 54.5 51.7 48.6 53.1 58% 19 80 1 103
Other 0.7% 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 1% 49 50 1 93
Margin
Total 101.9 92.7 88.0 82.7 91.6 Share 45.6% 53.3% 1.1% -7.7%
Vote 41.8 48.8 1.0 -7.0
Recorded Share 45.6% 53.4% 1.0% -7.7%
Vote 91.6 41.8 48.9 0.9 -7.1
Error -0.1%
Method: True Vote 95% 94%
True Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1988 Vote Share
1984 1984 1984 1988 1988 Turnout Mix% Dukakis Bush Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 11.2 11.0 47% 51% 2% -
Mondale 42.1% 42.9 37.6 40.8 38.3 38.3 37.5 92 7 1 94%
Reagan 57.2% 58.3 54.5 55.4 52.1 52.1 50.9 19 80 1 94%
Other 0.6% 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 49 50 1 94%
Total 101.9 92.7 96.8 91.0 102.2 Share 49.6% 49.3% 1.1% 0.3%
Vote 50.7 50.4 1.1 0.3
Recorded Share 45.6% 53.4% 1.0%
Vote 91.6 41.8 48.9 0.9
Reagan Mondale Turnout Share of Dukakis Share of DNV
Turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Reagan 45% 46% 47% 48% 49%
Dukakis Share Dukakis Share
90% 49.5% 49.9% 50.2% 50.6% 50.9% 21% 50.4% 50.5% 50.6% 50.7% 50.9%
92% 49.2% 49.6% 49.9% 50.3% 50.6% 20% 49.9% 50.0% 50.1% 50.2% 50.3%
94% 48.9% 49.3% 49.6% 50.0% 50.3% 19% 49.4% 49.5% 49.6% 49.7% 49.8%
96% 48.6% 49.0% 49.3% 49.7% 50.0% 18% 48.9% 49.0% 49.1% 49.2% 49.3%
98% 48.3% 48.6% 49.0% 49.4% 49.7% 17% 48.4% 48.5% 48.6% 48.7% 48.8%
Dukakis Margin Dukakis Margin
90% 0.2 0.9 1.6 2.3 3.1 21% 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6
92% -0.5 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.4 20% 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1
94% -1.1 -0.4 0.3 1.1 1.8 19% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6
96% -1.7 -1.0 -0.3 0.4 1.2 18% -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1
98% -2.4 -1.6 -0.9 -0.2 0.5 17% -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5
Reagan
Turnout Share of DNV Mortality Mondale Turnout
45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96%
Dukakis Share Dukakis Share
90% 50.0% 50.1% 50.2% 50.4% 50.5% 6.0% 49.2% 49.4% 49.6% 49.8% 49.9%
92% 49.7% 49.8% 49.9% 50.0% 50.2% 5.5% 49.2% 49.4% 49.6% 49.8% 50.0%
94% 49.4% 49.5% 49.6% 49.7% 49.8% 5.0% 49.3% 49.4% 49.6% 49.8% 50.0%
96% 49.1% 49.2% 49.3% 49.4% 49.5% 4.5% 49.3% 49.4% 49.6% 49.8% 50.0%
98% 48.8% 48.9% 49.0% 49.1% 49.2% 4.0% 49.3% 49.5% 49.6% 49.8% 50.0%
Dukakis Margin Dukakis Margin
90% 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 6.0% -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0
92% 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 5.5% -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0
94% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 5.0% -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1
96% -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 4.5% -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.1
98% -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 4.0% -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.1
1984
A Reagan landslide. The True Vote closely matched the recorded vote.
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 95%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1984 National Exit Poll Voter %
1980 1980 1980 1984 1984 Turnout Mix Mondale Reagan Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 14.8 16% 31% 68% 1% -
Carter 41.0% 40.4 35.5 33.7 32.0 31.5 34% 82 18 0 93
Reagan 50.7% 45.4 43.9 41.7 39.6 40.8 44% 11 88 1 98
Anderson 8.3% 7.3 7.2 6.8 6.5 5.6 6% 49 50 1 81
Margin
Total 93.1 86.6 82.2 78.1 92.7 Share 40.6% 58.7% 0.7% -18.1%
Vote 37.6 54.4 0.6 -16.8
Recorded Share 40.6% 58.8% 0.7% -18.2%
Vote 92.7 37.6 54.5 0.6 -16.9
Error -0.1%
Method: True Vote 95% 95%
True Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1984 Vote Share
1980 1980 1980 1984 1984 Turnout Mix% Mondale Reagan Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 17.9 17.6% 31% 68% 1% -
Carter 42.7% 39.7 35.5 37.7 35.8 35.8 35.2 82 18 0 95%
Reagan 48.9% 45.5 43.9 43.3 41.1 41.1 40.3 11 88 1 95%
Anderson 8.4% 7.8 7.2 7.4 7.1 7.1 6.9 49 50 1 95%
Total 93.1 86.6 88.4 84.0 101.9 Share 42.1% 57.2% 0.6% -15.1%
Vote 42.9 58.3 0.7 -15.4
Recorded Share 40.6% 58.8% 0.7%
Vote 92.7 37.6 54.5 0.6
Reagan Carter Turnout Share of Mondale Share of DNV
Turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Reagan 29% 30% 31% 32% 33%
Mondale Share Mondale Share
90% 41.6% 42.0% 42.4% 42.7% 43.1% 13% 42.6% 42.7% 42.9% 43.1% 43.3%
92% 41.4% 41.8% 42.2% 42.6% 42.9% 12% 42.2% 42.3% 42.5% 42.7% 42.9%
94% 41.3% 41.6% 42.0% 42.4% 42.8% 11% 41.8% 41.9% 42.1% 42.3% 42.5%
96% 41.1% 41.5% 41.8% 42.2% 42.6% 10% 41.4% 41.5% 41.7% 41.9% 42.1%
98% 40.9% 41.3% 41.7% 42.0% 42.4% 9% 41.0% 41.1% 41.3% 41.5% 41.7%
Mondale Margin Mondale Margin
90% -16.4 -15.7 -14.9 -14.2 -13.4 13% -14.9 -14.8 -14.6 -14.4 -14.2
92% -16.8 -16.0 -15.3 -14.5 -13.7 12% -15.4 -15.2 -15.0 -14.8 -14.6
94% -17.1 -16.4 -15.6 -14.9 -14.1 11% -15.8 -15.6 -15.4 -15.2 -15.0
96% -17.5 -16.7 -16.0 -15.2 -14.4 10% -16.2 -16.0 -15.8 -15.6 -15.5
98% -17.8 -17.1 -16.3 -15.5 -14.8 9% -16.6 -16.4 -16.2 -16.0 -15.9
Reagan
Turnout Mondale Share of DNV Mortality Carter Turnout
29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 93% 94% 95% 96% 97%
Mondale Share Mondale Share
90% 42.1% 42.3% 42.5% 42.7% 42.9% 6.0% 41.6% 41.8% 42.0% 42.2% 42.4%
92% 42.0% 42.2% 42.4% 42.6% 42.7% 5.5% 41.7% 41.9% 42.1% 42.2% 42.4%
94% 41.8% 42.0% 42.2% 42.4% 42.6% 5.0% 41.7% 41.9% 42.1% 42.3% 42.5%
96% 41.7% 41.9% 42.0% 42.2% 42.4% 4.5% 41.8% 42.0% 42.2% 42.4% 42.6%
98% 41.5% 41.7% 41.9% 42.0% 42.2% 4.0% 41.9% 42.0% 42.2% 42.4% 42.6%
Mondale Margin Mondale Margin
90% -14.9 -14.7 -14.5 -14.3 -14.1 6.0% -16.4 -16.0 -15.6 -15.3 -14.9
92% -15.3 -15.1 -14.9 -14.7 -14.5 5.5% -16.3 -15.9 -15.5 -15.1 -14.8
94% -15.6 -15.4 -15.2 -15.0 -14.9 5.0% -16.2 -15.8 -15.4 -15.0 -14.6
96% -15.9 -15.8 -15.6 -15.4 -15.2 4.5% -16.1 -15.7 -15.3 -14.9 -14.5
98% -16.3 -16.1 -15.9 -15.8 -15.6 4.0% -15.9 -15.6 -15.2 -14.8 -14.4
1980
Carter wanted to do some good things: conserve energy; bring peace to the ME.
But Reagan and Poppy Bush worked out a deal with the Ayatolla to hold off the
lease of the hostages until Inauguration Day. It was an easy Reagan win.
His True margin was close to 6 million, not the official 8.5 million.
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 94%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1980 National Exit Poll Voter %
1976 1976 1976 1980 1980 Turnout Mix Carter Reagan Anderson Turnout
DNV - - - - 13.9 16% 39% 44% 17% -
Carter 50.1% 44.7 40.8 38.8 36.5 36.4 42% 71 22 7 94
Ford 48.0% 40.4 39.1 37.2 35.0 35.5 41% 11 83 6 95
Other 1.9% 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 0.9 1% 44 42 14 59
Margin
Total 86.7 81.5 77.5 72.8 86.6 Share 41.0% 50.7% 8.3% -9.7%
Vote 35.5 43.9 7.2 -8.4
Recorded Share 41.0% 50.7% 8.3% -9.7%
Vote 86.6 35.5 43.9 7.2 -8.4
Error 0.0%
Method: True Vote 95% 94%
True Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1980 Vote Share
1976 1976 1976 1980 1980 Turnout Mix% Carter Reagan Anderson Turnout
DNV - - - - 15.6 16.8% 39% 44% 17% -
Carter 53.0% 46.0 40.8 43.7 41.0 41.0 44.1 71 22 7 94%
Ford 45.2% 39.2 39.1 37.2 35.0 35.0 37.6 11 83 6 94%
Other 1.8% 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 44 42 14 94%
Total 86.7 81.5 82.4 77.4 93.1 Share 42.7% 48.9% 8.4% -6.3%
Vote 39.7 45.5 7.8 -5.8
Recorded Share 41.0% 50.7% 8.3%
Vote 86.6 35.5 43.9 7.2
Ford Carter Turnout Share of Carter Share of DNV
Turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Ford 37% 38% 39% 40% 41%
Carter Share Carter Share
90% 42.5% 42.8% 43.1% 43.4% 43.7% 13% 43.1% 43.2% 43.4% 43.6% 43.7%
92% 42.3% 42.6% 42.9% 43.2% 43.5% 12% 42.7% 42.9% 43.0% 43.2% 43.4%
94% 42.1% 42.4% 42.7% 43.0% 43.3% 11% 42.3% 42.5% 42.7% 42.8% 43.0%
96% 41.8% 42.1% 42.4% 42.7% 43.0% 10% 41.9% 42.1% 42.3% 42.4% 42.6%
98% 41.6% 41.9% 42.2% 42.5% 42.8% 9% 41.6% 41.7% 41.9% 42.1% 42.2%
Carter Margin Carter Margin
90% -5.8 -5.3 -4.8 -4.4 -3.9 13% -5.5 -5.3 -5.1 -5.0 -4.8
92% -6.3 -5.8 -5.3 -4.9 -4.4 12% -5.8 -5.6 -5.5 -5.3 -5.2
94% -6.8 -6.3 -5.8 -5.4 -4.9 11% -6.2 -6.0 -5.8 -5.7 -5.5
96% -7.3 -6.8 -6.3 -5.9 -5.4 10% -6.5 -6.3 -6.2 -6.0 -5.9
98% -7.8 -7.3 -6.8 -6.4 -5.9 9% -6.9 -6.7 -6.5 -6.4 -6.2
Ford
Turnout Carter Share of DNV Mortality Carter Turnout
37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96%
Carter Share Carter Share
90% 42.7% 42.9% 43.1% 43.3% 43.5% 6.0% 42.3% 42.5% 42.6% 42.8% 42.9%
92% 42.5% 42.7% 42.9% 43.1% 43.2% 5.5% 42.3% 42.5% 42.6% 42.8% 42.9%
94% 42.3% 42.5% 42.7% 42.8% 43.0% 5.0% 42.4% 42.5% 42.7% 42.8% 43.0%
96% 42.1% 42.3% 42.4% 42.6% 42.8% 4.5% 42.4% 42.5% 42.7% 42.8% 43.0%
98% 41.9% 42.1% 42.2% 42.4% 42.5% 4.0% 42.4% 42.5% 42.7% 42.8% 43.0%
Carter Margin Carter Margin
90% -5.2 -5.0 -4.8 -4.7 -4.5 6.0% -6.3 -6.1 -5.8 -5.6 -5.4
92% -5.7 -5.5 -5.3 -5.2 -5.0 5.5% -6.3 -6.1 -5.8 -5.6 -5.4
94% -6.2 -6.0 -5.8 -5.7 -5.5 5.0% -6.3 -6.1 -5.8 -5.6 -5.4
96% -6.6 -6.5 -6.3 -6.2 -6.0 4.5% -6.3 -6.1 -5.8 -5.6 -5.4
98% -7.1 -7.0 -6.8 -6.7 -6.6 4.0% -6.3 -6.1 -5.9 -5.6 -5.4
1976
America needed a change in the White House after the Nixon scandals.
Carter won by close to 6 million votes, although officially his margin was just under 2 million.
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 94%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1976 National Exit Poll Voter %
1972 1972 1972 1976 1976 Turnout Mix Carter Ford Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 11.8 15% 57% 40% 3% -
McGovern 36.2% 34.2 28.2 26.8 25.2 24.5 30% 92 7 1 91
Nixon 60.7% 49.1 47.2 44.8 42.1 43.2 53% 24 74 2 96
Other 3.1% 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 3% 58 39 3 89
Margin
Total 85.8 77.7 73.9 69.4 81.5 Share 50.0% 48.1% 1.9% 1.9%
Vote 40.8 39.2 1.5 1.6
Recorded Share 50.1% 48.0% 1.9% 2.1%
Vote 81.5 40.8 39.1 1.6 1.7
Error 0.1%
Method: True Vote 95% 94%
True Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1976 Vote Share
1972 1972 1972 1976 1976 Turnout Mix% Carter Ford Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 10.1 11.7 57% 40% 3% -
McGovern 0.4% 34.7 28.2 32.9 31.0 31.0 35.7 92 7 1 94%
Nixon 56.6% 48.6 47.2 46.1 43.4 43.4 50.0 24 74 2 94%
Other 2.9% 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.6 58 39 3 94%
Total 85.8 77.7 81.5 76.6 86.7 Share 53.0% 45.2% 1.8% 7.8%
Vote 46.0 39.2 1.5 6.8
Recorded Share 50.1% 48.0% 1.9%
Vote 81.5 40.8 39.1 1.6
Nixon McGovern Turnout Share of Carter Share of DNV
Turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Nixon 55% 56% 57% 58% 59%
Carter Share Carter Share
90% 53.2% 53.4% 53.7% 54.0% 54.2% 26% 53.8% 53.9% 54.0% 54.1% 54.2%
92% 52.8% 53.1% 53.4% 53.6% 53.9% 25% 53.3% 53.4% 53.5% 53.6% 53.7%
94% 52.5% 52.7% 53.0% 53.3% 53.5% 24% 52.8% 52.9% 53.0% 53.1% 53.2%
96% 52.1% 52.4% 52.7% 52.9% 53.2% 23% 52.3% 52.4% 52.5% 52.6% 52.7%
98% 51.8% 52.0% 52.3% 52.6% 52.8% 22% 51.8% 51.9% 52.0% 52.1% 52.2%
Carter Margin Carter Margin
90% 7.1 7.6 8.0 8.5 8.9 26% 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8
92% 6.5 6.9 7.4 7.8 8.3 25% 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4
94% 5.9 6.3 6.8 7.2 7.7 24% 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0
96% 5.3 5.7 6.2 6.6 7.0 23% 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5
98% 4.6 5.1 5.5 6.0 6.4 22% 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1
Nixon
Turnout Carter Share of DNV Mortality McGovern Turnout
55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96%
Carter Share Carter Share
90% 53.4% 53.6% 53.7% 53.9% 54.0% 6.0% 52.8% 52.9% 53.1% 53.2% 53.3%
92% 53.1% 53.2% 53.4% 53.5% 53.6% 5.5% 52.8% 52.9% 53.0% 53.2% 53.3%
94% 52.8% 52.9% 53.0% 53.1% 53.2% 5.0% 52.7% 52.9% 53.0% 53.1% 53.3%
96% 52.4% 52.6% 52.7% 52.8% 52.9% 4.5% 52.7% 52.9% 53.0% 53.1% 53.3%
98% 52.1% 52.2% 52.3% 52.4% 52.5% 4.0% 52.7% 52.8% 53.0% 53.1% 53.2%
Carter Margin Carter Margin
90% 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 6.0% 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.1 7.3
92% 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 5.5% 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.3
94% 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0 5.0% 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.0 7.2
96% 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.3 4.5% 6.3 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.2
98% 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.7 4.0% 6.2 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1
1972
A Nixon landslide. All those dirty tricks were unnecessary. But Rove learned from
the master Donald Segretti.
1968
The only silent majority were the 6 million net uncounted votes.
That’s why Nixon won the official vote by 0.5m.
Humphrey won the True Vote by 2 million.
1972
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 92%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1972 National Exit Poll Voter %
1968 1968 1968 1972 1972 Turnout Mix McGovern Nixon Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 8.6 11% 43% 53% 4% -
Humphrey 42.9% 35.8 31.3 29.7 27.3 27.2 35% 71 28 1 92
Nixon 43.6% 33.1 31.8 30.2 27.8 34.2 44% 6 89 5 113
Wallace 13.6% 10.1 9.9 9.4 8.7 7.8 10% 40 59 1 83
Margin
Total 79.0 73.0 69.3 63.8 77.7 Share 36.2% 60.7% 3.1% -24.5%
Vote 28.2 47.2 2.4 -19.0
Recorded Share 36.2% 60.7% 3.1% -24.4%
Vote 77.7 28.2 47.2 2.4 -19.0
Error 0.0%
Method: True Vote 95% 92%
True Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1972 Vote Share
1968 1968 1968 1972 1972 Turnout Mix% McGovern Nixon Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 16.7 19.5% 43% 53% 4% -
Humphrey 45.3% 35.8 31.3 34.0 31.3 31.3 36.5 71 28 1 92%
Nixon 41.9% 33.1 31.8 31.4 28.9 28.9 33.7 6 89 5 92%
Wallace 12.8% 10.1 9.9 9.6 8.8 8.8 10.3 40 59 1 92%
Total 79.0 73.0 75.0 69.0 85.8 Share 40.4% 56.6% 2.9% -16.2%
Vote 34.7 48.6 2.5 -13.9
Recorded Share 36.2% 60.7% 3.1%
Vote 77.7 28.2 47.2 2.4
Nixon Humphrey Turnout Share of McGovern Share of DNV
Turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Nixon 41% 42% 43% 44% 45%
McGovern Share McGovern Share
90% 40.5% 40.7% 40.9% 41.1% 41.4% 8% 40.7% 40.9% 41.1% 41.3% 41.5%
92% 40.2% 40.4% 40.6% 40.9% 41.1% 7% 40.4% 40.6% 40.8% 41.0% 41.2%
94% 39.9% 40.2% 40.4% 40.6% 40.8% 6% 40.0% 40.2% 40.4% 40.6% 40.8%
96% 39.7% 39.9% 40.1% 40.3% 40.5% 5% 39.7% 39.9% 40.1% 40.3% 40.5%
98% 39.4% 39.6% 39.8% 40.1% 40.3% 4% 39.4% 39.6% 39.8% 39.9% 40.1%
McGovern Margin McGovern Margin
90% -13.8 -13.4 -13.1 -12.7 -12.4 8% -13.7 -13.5 -13.3 -13.2 -13.0
92% -14.3 -13.9 -13.5 -13.2 -12.8 7% -14.0 -13.8 -13.6 -13.5 -13.3
94% -14.7 -14.4 -14.0 -13.6 -13.3 6% -14.2 -14.1 -13.9 -13.7 -13.6
96% -15.2 -14.8 -14.5 -14.1 -13.7 5% -14.5 -14.4 -14.2 -14.0 -13.9
98% -15.6 -15.3 -14.9 -14.6 -14.2 4% -14.8 -14.7 -14.5 -14.3 -14.2
Nixon
Turnout McGovern Share of DNV Mortality Humphrey Turnout
41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 90% 91% 92% 93% 94%
McGovern Share McGovern Share
90% 40.3% 40.5% 40.7% 40.9% 41.1% 6.0% 40.2% 40.3% 40.5% 40.6% 40.7%
92% 40.0% 40.2% 40.4% 40.6% 40.8% 5.5% 40.2% 40.3% 40.4% 40.5% 40.7%
94% 39.8% 40.0% 40.2% 40.3% 40.5% 5.0% 40.2% 40.3% 40.4% 40.5% 40.6%
96% 39.5% 39.7% 39.9% 40.1% 40.2% 4.5% 40.2% 40.3% 40.4% 40.5% 40.6%
98% 39.3% 39.4% 39.6% 39.8% 40.0% 4.0% 40.2% 40.3% 40.4% 40.5% 40.6%
McGovern Margin McGovern Margin
90% -13.8 -13.6 -13.4 -13.3 -13.1 6.0% -14.2 -14.0 -13.9 -13.7 -13.5
92% -14.2 -14.1 -13.9 -13.7 -13.6 5.5% -14.2 -14.1 -13.9 -13.7 -13.5
94% -14.7 -14.5 -14.4 -14.2 -14.0 5.0% -14.3 -14.1 -13.9 -13.7 -13.5
96% -15.1 -15.0 -14.8 -14.7 -14.5 4.5% -14.3 -14.1 -13.9 -13.8 -13.6
98% -15.6 -15.4 -15.3 -15.1 -15.0 4.0% -14.3 -14.1 -14.0 -13.8 -13.6
..........................................................................
TruthIsAll
In the first game of the 1954 World Series, Willie Mays made a miracle over-the-head
catch. He implicitly calculated the mathematical trajectory of the ball at the crack
of the bat using his built-in computer.
http://www.richardcharnin.com/mayscatch.jpg
Calculating the True Vote is more complex; the trajectory equation changes over
time as the dynamics of the electorate change. The current election equation is a
recursive function of the prior. It's all in the MATH.
In the 11 elections from 1968 to 2008, the Republicans won the recorded vote by an average 48.9-45.3%. The Democrats won the True Vote by 49.0-45.3%, an EXACT REVERSAL.
Cause of the 7.6% discrepancy: 1)phantom returning voters and 2) uncounted votes.
In each election, Final National Exit Poll vote shares are assumed with the exception of 2004. The Final NEP 43/37% Bush/Gore returning voter mix was changed from 41/39% at 12:22am, but this was not sufficient by itself to force a match to the recorded vote (Bush 51-48). The 12:22am vote shares had to be adjusted in favor of Bush as well. For this reason, plausible 12:22am shares are used to calculate the True Vote (Kerry led at 12:22am by 51-48%).
The Recursive True Vote Model calculates the True Vote for all elections since 1968.
Data input (shown below) consists of recorded and total votes cast, Final National
Exit Poll shares (1988-2008); estimated vote shares (1968-1984) required to match
the recorded vote, annual voter mortality and previous election voter turnout. The
returning voter mix is calculated using the following methods -depending on the
objective:
Method 1 - forced match
The Final NEP adjusts the returning voter mix to force a match to the recorded vote.
This implicitly assumes that all elections, not just the current, are fraud-free.
The process of matching to the official vote required millions of phantom voters.
In 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 turnout of previous Bush voters exceeded 100%.
Therefore, the official vote counts cannot be correct.
Method 2 - prior recorded
The mix is based on prior recorded votes and does not include millions of uncounted
votes.
Method 3 - prior votes cast
(True Vote): The mix is based on total votes cast in the previous and current
election. The cumulative impact of earlier elections is not taken into account.
Method 4 - Prior True Vote
(Recursive Model)
The perpetuation of fraud from prior elections election is eliminated.
Starting with the 1968 election, the model sequentially derives a feasible returning
vote mix. True vote shares cast in the previous election are reduced by voter
mortality and turnout in the current election and new voters are added to the mix.
Except for the 2004 election, the model used Final National Exit Poll vote share.
In 2004 the Final NEP vote shares were radically changed to match the official
tally. Therefore, preliminary 12:22am NEP vote shares were used to calculate the
True Vote.
The model indicates that two elections were definitely stolen (2000 and 2004)and
probably two others (1968 and 1988) as well. In order to match the official vote,
there had to be an average 94% turnout of returning Democrats and 106% of
Republicans. The average Republican turnout was 114% when Nixon and Bush were the
incumbents; it was 98% otherwise. The average True Vote discrepancy was 10.3% when
Nixon and Bush were incumbents; it was 3.6% otherwise.
In 1968, Nixon won the official vote by 0.5m.
Humphrey won the True Vote by 2 million.
There were 6 million uncounted votes.
In 1972, Nixon won a 17 million landslide with 61.8% of the vote.
His True Vote share was 57%.
There were 9.5 million uncounted votes.
In 1976, Carter won the official vote by 1.7m.
He won the True Vote by 6 million with 53%.
There were 6.7 million uncounted votes.
In 1980, Reagan defeated Carter by 8 million votes.
There were 6.4 million uncounted votes.
In 1984, Reagan defeated Mondale by 17 million votes.
There were 9.2 million uncounted votes.
In 1988, Bush won the official vote by 7.0m.
Dukakis may have won a squeaker.
There were 10.6 million uncounted votes.
In 1992, Clinton won the official vote by 6m.
He won the True Vote by over 20 million.
There were 9.5 million uncounted votes.
Independent candidate Ross Perot had 19% of the recorded vote.
In 1996, Clinton won the official vote by 8m.
He won the True Vote by 16 million.
There were 8.7 million uncounted votes.
Independent candidate Ross Perot had 10% of the vote.
In 2000, Gore won the official vote by 0.54 million.
He won the True Vote by 4 million.
There were 5.4 million uncounted votes.
But he lost in Scotus by ONE vote.
In 2004, Bush won the official vote by 3.0m.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million.
The Final National Exit Poll forced a match to the recorded vote.
It had an impossible 43/37% Bush/Gore returning voter split.
There were 3.4 million net uncounted votes.
HAVA guess how many were stuffed or switched?
In 2008, Obama won the official vote by 9.5m.
He won the True Vote by over 20 million.
The Final National Exit Poll forced a match to the recorded vote.
It had an impossible 46/37% Bush/Kerry returning voter split.
Calculated Democratic Vote Shares (1968-2008)
Vote Share Discrepancies (1968-2008)
True Vote vs. Recorded Vote Margin (1968-2008)
In mathematical terms,
True Vote for candidate k in election i is sum product of the mix and vote shares.
i = election index, where i=0,10 (1968 to 2008)
j = new and returning voter index (1= New, 2=Dem, 3=Rep, 4=Other)
k = share of new and returning voters (1=Dem, 2=Rep, 3=Other)
Mix (i,k) = new and returning voter share (j) of election (i-1) total votes cast
NEP (i, j, k) = National Exit Poll (i) shares (k) of new and returning voters (j)
TV (i, k) = ĺ Mix (i, j)* NEP(i, j, k), j=1,4; k =1,3
2008 True Vote
TV (10,1) = Obama = 58.0%
TV (10,2) = McCain = 40.3%
TV (10,3) = Other = 1.7%%
2004 Returning Voter shares of 2008 Total Cast
Mix (10,1) = DNV = 12.43%
Mix (10,2) = Kerry = 46.87%
Mix (10,3) = Bush = 39.52%
Mix (10,4) = Other = 1.18%
Obama shares of new and returning voters
NEP (10,1,1) = 71% of DNV
NEP (10,2,1) = 89% of Kerry
NEP (10,3,1) = 17% of Bush
NEP (10,4,1) = 66% of Other
McCain Vote Shares
NEP (10,1,2) = 27% of DNV
NEP (10,2,2) = 9% of Kerry
NEP (10,3,2) = 82% of Bush
NEP (10,4,2) = 24% of Other
Other Vote Shares
NEP (1,1,3) = 2% of DNV
NEP (1,2,3) = 2% of Kerry
NEP (1.3,3) = 1% of Bush
NEP (1.4,3) = 8% of Other
[code]
Final NEP Summary 1972-2008
Recorded Match Margin Final NEP Returning Voter Mix Turnout to match
Dem Rep Dem Rep Error DNV Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other
2008 52.9% 45.6% 52.6% 45.6% 0.24% 13.0% 37.0% 46.0% 4.0% 87% 103% 451%
2004 48.3% 50.7% 48.5% 51.1% 0.17% 17.0% 37.0% 43.0% 3.0% 93% 110% 98%
2000 48.4% 47.9% 48.4% 47.8% -0.05% 18.0% 41.0% 33.0% 8.0% 96% 93% 92%
1996 49.2% 40.7% 49.3% 40.7% -0.11% 13.0% 38.0% 31.0% 18.0% 86% 80% 80%
1992 43.0% 37.4% 43.0% 37.5% 0.00% 18.3% 28.0% 53.0% 0.7% 74% 119% 85%
1988 45.6% 53.4% 45.6% 53.3% -0.05% 8.4% 33.0% 58.0% 0.6% 85% 103% 93%
1984 40.6% 58.8% 40.6% 58.7% -0.12% 16.0% 34.0% 44.0% 6.0% 93% 98% 81%
1980 41.0% 50.7% 41.0% 50.7% -0.01% 16.0% 42.0% 41.0% 1.0% 94% 95% 59%
1976 50.1% 48.0% 50.0% 48.1% 0.13% 14.5% 30.0% 53.0% 2.5% 91% 96% 89%
1972 36.2% 60.7% 36.2% 60.7% 0.04% 11.0% 35.0% 44.0% 10.0% 92% 113% 83%
1968 42.9% 43.6% 42.9% 43.6% 0.0% - - - -
- - -
Avg 45.3% 48.9% 45.3% 48.9% 0.00% 14.5% 35.5% 44.6% 5.4% 89% 101% 121%
True Vote Summary 1972-2008
Recorded True Vote Margin True Returning Voter Mix Turnout to match
Dem Rep Dem Rep Error DNV Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other
2008 52.9% 45.6% 58.0% 40.3% -10.5% 12.4% 46.9% 39.5% 1% 87% 103% 451%
2004 48.3% 50.7% 53.5% 45.1% -10.9% 17.9% 41.3% 37.7% 3% 93% 110% 98%
2000 48.4% 47.9% 50.3% 46.0% -3.9% 13.6% 46.1% 32.0% 8% 96% 93% 92%
1996 49.2% 40.7% 53.4% 37.1% -7.8% 9.4% 46.2% 27.9% 17% 86% 80% 80%
1992 43.0% 37.4% 50.9% 30.8% -14.6% 16.4% 41.5% 41.2% 1% 74% 119% 85%
1988 45.6% 53.4% 49.6% 49.3% -8.1% 11.0% 37.5% 50.9% 1% 85% 103% 93%
1984 40.6% 58.8% 42.1% 57.2% -3.1% 17.6% 35.2% 40.3% 7% 93% 98% 81%
1980 41.0% 50.7% 42.7% 48.9% -3.5% 16.8% 44.1% 37.6% 1% 94% 95% 59%
1976 50.1% 48.0% 53.0% 45.2% -5.7% 11.7% 35.7% 50.0% 3% 91% 96% 89%
1972 36.2% 60.7% 40.4% 56.6% -8.2% 19.5% 36.5% 33.7% 10% 92% 113% 83%
1968 42.9% 43.6% 45.3% 41.9% -4.1% - - - - - - -
Avg 45.3% 48.9% 49.0% 45.3% -7.3% 14.6% 41.1% 39.1% 5.2% 89% 101% 121%
2008
Likely voter (LV) pre-election polls are a subset of Registered voter (RV) polls.
LV polls exclude many newly registered voters.
In the last 5 elections, Democrats won new voters by a 15% average margin.
Obviously, LV polls understate the Democratic vote in high-turnout elections.
In 2004, there were 22 million new voters. Kerry won the group by nearly 20%.
Obama won new voters by 71-27%.
Pre-election LV tracking polls had Obama leading by 50-43% before undecided voters were allocated (UVA).
Pre-election RV polls had Obama leading by 53-40% before UVA.
With UVA, Obama was leading by 57-42%.
Obama won the True Vote with a 58% share, a 23 million-vote landslide of epic proportions.
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 97%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 2008 National Exit Poll Voter %
2004 2004 2004 2008 2008 Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 17.1 13% 71% 27% 2% -
Kerry 48.3% 62.2 59.0 56.1 54.4 48.6 37% 89 9 2 87
Bush 50.7% 63.1 62.0 58.9 57.2 60.5 46% 17 82 1 103
Other 1.0% 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 5.3 4% 66 26 8 451
Margin
Total 126.5 122.3 116.2 112.7 131.5 Share 52.6% 45.6% 1.8% 7.0%
Vote 69.2 59.9 2.3 9.2
Recorded Share 52.9% 45.6% 1.5% 7.3%
Vote 131.5 69.5 60.0 2.0 9.6
Diff Error 0.2%
Method: True Vote 95% 97%
True Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 2008 Vote Share
2004 2004 2004 2008 2008 Turnout Mix% Obama McCain Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 16.4 12.4% 71% 27% 2% -
Kerry 53.6% 67.4 59.0 64.1 62.1 62.1 47.0 89 9 2 97%
Bush 45.0% 56.6 62.0 53.8 52.2 52.2 39.4 17 82 1 97%
Other 1.3% 1.7 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.2 66 26 8 97%
Total 125.7 122.3 119.4 115.9 132.3 Share 58.1% 40.2% 1.7% 17.9%
Vote 76.9 53.2 2.2 23.7
Recorded Share 52.9% 45.6% 1.5%
Vote 131.5 69.5 60.0 2.0
Bush Kerry Turnout Share of Obama Share of DNV
Turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Bush 69% 70% 71% 72% 73%
Obama Share Obama Share
90% 59.0% 59.2% 59.4% 59.6% 59.7% 19% 58.6% 58.8% 58.9% 59.0% 59.1%
92% 58.6% 58.8% 58.9% 59.1% 59.3% 18% 58.3% 58.4% 58.5% 58.6% 58.8%
94% 58.2% 58.3% 58.5% 58.7% 58.9% 17% 57.9% 58.0% 58.1% 58.2% 58.4%
96% 57.7% 57.9% 58.1% 58.2% 58.4% 16% 57.5% 57.6% 57.7% 57.8% 58.0%
98% 57.3% 57.5% 57.6% 57.8% 58.0% 15% 57.1% 57.2% 57.3% 57.4% 57.6%
Obama Margin Obama Margin
90% 26.2 26.6 27.1 27.5 28.0 19% 24.4 24.6 24.7 24.9 25.0
92% 25.0 25.4 25.9 26.4 26.8 18% 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.4 24.5
94% 23.8 24.3 24.7 25.2 25.7 17% 23.3 23.5 23.7 23.8 24.0
96% 22.6 23.1 23.6 24.0 24.5 16% 22.8 23.0 23.2 23.3 23.5
98% 21.5 21.9 22.4 22.9 23.3 15% 22.3 22.5 22.6 22.8 23.0
Bush
Turnout Obam Share of DNV Mortality Kerry Turnout
69% 70% 71% 72% 73% 95% 96% 97% 98% 99%
Obama Share Obama Share
90% 59.3% 59.5% 59.6% 59.8% 59.9% 6.0% 58.1% 58.2% 58.2% 58.3% 58.4%
92% 58.9% 59.1% 59.2% 59.3% 59.5% 5.5% 58.0% 58.1% 58.2% 58.3% 58.3%
94% 58.5% 58.6% 58.8% 58.9% 59.0% 5.0% 57.9% 58.0% 58.1% 58.2% 58.3%
96% 58.1% 58.2% 58.3% 58.5% 58.6% 4.5% 57.9% 58.0% 58.0% 58.1% 58.2%
98% 57.6% 57.8% 57.9% 58.0% 58.1% 4.0% 57.8% 57.9% 58.0% 58.1% 58.1%
Obama Margin Obama Margin
90% 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.2 6.0% 23.6 23.8 24.0 24.3 24.5
92% 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.8 27.0 5.5% 23.4 23.6 23.9 24.1 24.3
94% 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.6 25.8 5.0% 23.2 23.4 23.7 23.9 24.1
96% 23.9 24.1 24.3 24.4 24.6 4.5% 23.0 23.3 23.5 23.7 24.0
98% 22.8 22.9 23.1 23.2 23.4 4.0% 22.8 23.1 23.3 23.5 23.8
2004
Bush had an 48% approval rating on Election Day. There were 22 million new voters
who split 3-2 for Kerry. Returning Gore voters were out for blood. Nader voters were
defecting to Kerry. It should have been a slam-dunk - and it was. Kerry won the True
Vote by over 10 million with better than a 53% share. But only the recorded vote
counts. Bush had a 3 million recorded vote “mandate”.
To match the recorded vote, the exit pollsters had to adjust the returning Bush/Gore
voter mix in the Final National Exit Poll to an impossible 43/37% - which meant
there were 52.6m returning Bush voters. But Bush only had 50.5 million votes in
2000. Approximately 48 million were still alive and 47 million voted in 2004.
However, just changing the mix was not sufficient to match Bush's official 62
million tally. The exit pollsters also had to raise Bush vote shares from the
12:22am NEP. His share of new voters jumped from 41% to 45%; Gore voters from 8% to
10%; Bush voters from 90% to 91%. It makes no sense to apply the bogus Final 2004
NEP (13660 respondents) vote shares to calculate the True Vote. The 12:22am update
(13047 respondents) shares are used.
According to the Final NEP, Bush needed an impossible 110% turnout of returning Bush
2000 voters to match the official vote.
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 98%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 2004 National Exit Poll Voter %
2000 2000 2000 2004 2004 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 20.8 17% 54% 45% 1% -
Gore 48.4% 55.3 51.0 48.5 47.5 45.2 37% 90 10 0 93
Bush 47.9% 51.8 50.5 47.9 47.0 52.6 43% 9 91 0 110
Other 3.8% 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.7 3% 71 21 8 98
Margin
Total 111.2 105.4 100.1 98.1 122.3 Share 48.5% 51.1% 0.4% -2.6%
Vote 59.3 62.5 0.5 -3.2
Recorded Share 48.3% 50.7% 1.0% -2.5%
Vote 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2 -3.0
Error 0.2%
Method: True Vote 95% 98%
True Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 2004 Vote Share
2000 2000 2000 2004 2004 Turnout Mix% Kerry Bush Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 22.6 17.9% 57% 41% 2% -
Gore 50.5% 56.0 51.0 53.2 52.1 52.1 41.5 91 8 1 98%
Bush 45.8% 50.8 50.5 48.2 47.3 47.3 37.6 10 90 0 98%
Other 3.7% 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.0 64 17 19 98%
Total 110.8 105.4 105.3 103.2 125.7 Share 53.6% 45.0% 1.3% 8.6%
Vote 67.4 56.6 1.7 10.8
Recorded Share 48.3% 50.7% 1.0%
Vote 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2
Bush Gore Turnout Share of Kerry Share of DNV
Turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Bush 55% 56% 57% 58% 59%
Kerry Share Kerry Share
90% 53.9% 54.2% 54.5% 54.8% 55.1% 12% 54.0% 54.2% 54.4% 54.6% 54.7%
92% 53.6% 53.9% 54.1% 54.4% 54.7% 11% 53.7% 53.8% 54.0% 54.2% 54.4%
94% 53.2% 53.5% 53.8% 54.1% 54.4% 10% 53.3% 53.5% 53.6% 53.8% 54.0%
96% 52.8% 53.1% 53.4% 53.7% 54.0% 9% 52.9% 53.1% 53.3% 53.4% 53.6%
98% 52.5% 52.8% 53.1% 53.4% 53.6% 8% 52.5% 52.7% 52.9% 53.1% 53.2%
Kerry Margin Kerry Margin
90% 11.7 12.4 13.1 13.8 14.5 12% 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.2
92% 10.8 11.5 12.2 12.9 13.6 11% 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.8
94% 9.8 10.6 11.3 12.0 12.7 10% 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.3
96% 8.9 9.6 10.3 11.1 11.8 9% 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.6 10.8
98% 8.0 8.7 9.4 10.1 10.8 8% 9.4 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.3
Bush
Turnout Kerry Share of DNV Mortality Gore Turnout
55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 96% 97% 98% 99% 100%
Kerry Share Kerry Share
90% 54.7% 54.9% 55.1% 55.3% 55.5% 6.0% 53.4% 53.5% 53.7% 53.8% 54.0%
92% 54.3% 54.5% 54.7% 54.9% 55.1% 5.5% 53.4% 53.5% 53.7% 53.8% 53.9%
94% 54.0% 54.2% 54.4% 54.6% 54.7% 5.0% 53.4% 53.5% 53.6% 53.8% 53.9%
96% 53.6% 53.8% 54.0% 54.2% 54.4% 4.5% 53.3% 53.5% 53.6% 53.8% 53.9%
98% 53.3% 53.5% 53.6% 53.8% 54.0% 4.0% 53.3% 53.5% 53.6% 53.7% 53.9%
Kerry Margin Kerry Margin
90% 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.1 6.0% 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.3 11.6
92% 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.1 5.5% 10.2 10.5 10.9 11.2 11.6
94% 12.2 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.2 5.0% 10.1 10.5 10.8 11.2 11.6
96% 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.2 4.5% 10.1 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.5
98% 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.3 4.0% 10.0 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.5
2000
Gore was running coming off a prior Clinton landslide.
Slick Willie still enjoyed high approval ratings - despite that cheap cigar.
There were 5.4 million net (of stuffed) uncounted votes. Figure 75% to Gore.
He won the True Vote by approximately 5 million.
It was the most outrageous theft in history-until 2004.
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 96%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 2000 National Exit Poll Voter %
1996 1996 1996 2000 2000 Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 19.0 18% 52 43 5 -
Clinton 49.2% 54.0 47.4 45.0 43.2 43.2 41% 82 15 3 96
Dole 40.7% 41.2 39.2 37.2 35.7 34.8 33% 7 91 2 93
Perot 10.1% 9.9 9.7 9.2 8.8 8.4 8% 39 49 12 92
Margin
Total 105.0 96.3 91.5 87.8 105.4 Share 48.4% 47.8% 3.8% 0.6%
Vote 51.0 50.4 4.0 0.6
Recorded Share 48.4% 47.9% 3.8% 0.5%
Vote 105.4 51.0 50.5 4.0 0.5
Error -0.1%
Method: True Vote 95% 96%
True Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 2000 Vote Share
1996 1996 1996 2000 2000 Turnout Mix% Gore Bush Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 15.1 13.6% 52% 43% 5% -
Clinton 53.9% 56.6 47.4 53.7 51.6 51.6 46.6 82 15 3 96%
Dole 37.1% 38.9 39.2 37.0 35.5 35.5 32.0 7 91 2 96%
Perot 9.0% 9.5 9.7 9.0 8.7 8.7 7.8 39 49 12 96%
Total 105.0 96.3 99.8 95.8 110.8 Share 50.5% 45.8% 3.7% 4.7%
Vote 56.0 50.8 4.1 5.2
Recorded Share 48.4% 47.9% 3.8%
Vote 105.4 51.0 50.5 4.0
Dole Clinton Turnout Share of Gore Share of DNV
Turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Dole 50% 51% 52% 53% 54%
Gore Share Gore Share
90% 50.6% 50.9% 51.1% 51.4% 51.7% 9% 50.9% 51.0% 51.2% 51.3% 51.4%
92% 50.3% 50.6% 50.8% 51.1% 51.4% 8% 50.6% 50.7% 50.9% 51.0% 51.1%
94% 50.0% 50.3% 50.5% 50.8% 51.1% 7% 50.3% 50.4% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8%
96% 49.7% 49.9% 50.2% 50.5% 50.8% 6% 49.9% 50.1% 50.2% 50.3% 50.5%
98% 49.4% 49.6% 49.9% 50.2% 50.5% 5% 49.6% 49.8% 49.9% 50.0% 50.2%
Gore Margin Gore Margin
90% 5.4 6.0 6.7 7.3 7.9 9% 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.2
92% 4.7 5.4 6.0 6.6 7.2 8% 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.9
94% 4.0 4.7 5.3 5.9 6.5 7% 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5
96% 3.4 4.0 4.6 5.2 5.9 6% 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.2
98% 2.7 3.3 3.9 4.5 5.2 5% 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.8
Dole
Turnout Gore Share of DNV Mortality Clinton Turnout
50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 94% 95% 96% 97% 98%
Gore Share Gore Share
90% 51.1% 51.3% 51.4% 51.6% 51.7% 6.0% 50.3% 50.4% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8%
92% 50.8% 51.0% 51.1% 51.3% 51.4% 5.5% 50.2% 50.4% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8%
94% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8% 51.0% 51.1% 5.0% 50.2% 50.4% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8%
96% 50.3% 50.4% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8% 4.5% 50.2% 50.4% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8%
98% 50.0% 50.1% 50.2% 50.4% 50.5% 4.0% 50.2% 50.4% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8%
Gore Margin Gore Margin
90% 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.6 6.0% 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.9
92% 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.9 5.5% 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.9
94% 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.2 5.0% 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.9
96% 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5 4.5% 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.8
98% 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.0% 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.8
1996
Clinton enjoyed high popularity in a recovering economy; the Reagan/Bush deficit turned into a surplus.
Clinton won a major landslide in 1992 with Independent Perot capturing 20% of the
vote. This time Perot had just 10%.
Approximately 42% of returning Perot voters defected to Dole and 32% to Clinton.
But Clinton's True Vote share increased from 51% to nearly 54%.
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 88%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1996 National Exit Poll Voter %
1992 1992 1992 1996 1996 Turnout Mix Clinton Dole Perot Turnout
DNV - - - - 12.5 13% 55% 33% 12% -
Clinton 43.0% 52.0 44.9 42.7 37.5 36.6 38% 85 9 6 86
Bush 37.4% 41.0 39.1 37.1 32.7 29.8 31% 15 82 3 80
Perot 19.5% 20.9 20.4 19.4 17.1 17.3 18% 32 42 26 89
Margin
Total 113.9 104.4 99.2 87.3 96.3 Share 49.9% 40.7% 9.5% 9.2%
Vote 48.0 39.2 9.1 8.8
Recorded Share 49.2% 40.7% 10.1% 8.5%
Vote 96.3 47.4 39.2 9.7 8.2
Error -0.6%
Method: True Vote 95% 88%
True Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1996 Vote Share
1992 1992 1992 1996 1996 Turnout Mix% Clinton Dole Perot Turnout
DNV - - - - 9.8 9.4% 55% 33% 12% -
Clinton 50.9% 58.0 44.9 55.1 48.5 48.5 46.2 85 9 6 88%
Bush 30.8% 35.0 39.1 33.3 29.3 29.3 27.9 15 82 3 88%
Perot 18.3% 20.9 20.4 19.8 17.4 17.4 16.6 32 42 26 88%
Total 113.9 104.4 108.2 95.2 105.0 Share 53.9% 37.1% 9.0% 16.8%
Vote 56.6 38.9 9.5 17.6
Recorded Share 49.2% 40.7% 10.1%
Vote 96.3 47.4 39.2 9.7
Bush Clinton Turnout Share of Clinton Share of DNV
Turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Bush 53% 54% 55% 56% 57%
Clinton Share Clinton Share
90% 53.9% 54.3% 54.6% 54.9% 55.2% 17% 54.2% 54.3% 54.4% 54.5% 54.6%
92% 53.7% 54.0% 54.3% 54.6% 54.9% 16% 54.0% 54.1% 54.2% 54.2% 54.3%
94% 53.4% 53.7% 54.1% 54.4% 54.7% 15% 53.7% 53.8% 53.9% 54.0% 54.1%
96% 53.2% 53.5% 53.8% 54.1% 54.4% 14% 53.4% 53.5% 53.6% 53.7% 53.8%
98% 52.9% 53.2% 53.6% 53.9% 54.2% 13% 53.1% 53.2% 53.3% 53.4% 53.5%
Clinton Margin Clinton Margin
90% 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.4 20.0 17% 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4
92% 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.4 16% 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.1
94% 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.2 18.8 15% 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.8
96% 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.2 14% 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5
98% 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.7 13% 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.2
Bush
Turnout Clinton Share of DNV Mortality Clinton Turnout
53% 54% 55% 56% 57% 86% 87% 88% 89% 90%
Clinton Share Clinton Share
90% 53.4% 53.5% 53.6% 53.7% 53.8% 6.0% 53.6% 53.7% 53.9% 54.0% 54.2%
92% 53.2% 53.3% 53.4% 53.4% 53.5% 5.5% 53.6% 53.7% 53.9% 54.0% 54.2%
94% 53.0% 53.0% 53.1% 53.2% 53.3% 5.0% 53.6% 53.7% 53.9% 54.0% 54.2%
96% 52.7% 52.8% 52.9% 52.9% 53.0% 4.5% 53.6% 53.7% 53.9% 54.0% 54.2%
98% 52.5% 52.5% 52.6% 52.7% 52.7% 4.0% 53.5% 53.7% 53.9% 54.0% 54.2%
Clinton Margin Clinton Margin
90% 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.2 6.0% 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.3
92% 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.6 5.5% 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.3
94% 15.7 15.8 15.9 15.9 16.0 5.0% 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.2
96% 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.4 4.5% 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.2
98% 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.8 4.0% 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.2
1992
Bush was running as a very unpopular incumbent (S&L, Iran-Contra, exploding deficit,
imploding economy. As the challenger, Clinton was poised to win late undecided
voters and nearly 20 million new voters. Perot was running as a strong Independent
candidate - mostly pulling votes from Bush. The official vote indicated a 6 million
margin. But it was actually close to a 22 million landslide. Clinton had 51%, Perot
18%, Bush 31%. Without Perot, it probably would have been 57-43%.
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 98%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1992 National Exit Poll Voter %
1988 1988 1988 1992 1992 Turnout Mix Clinton Bush Perot Turnout
DNV - - - - 19.1 18% 46% 25% 29% -
Dukakis 45.6% 49.8 41.8 39.7 38.9 29.2 28% 83 5 12 74
Bush 53.4% 51.5 48.9 46.4 45.5 55.3 53% 21 59 20 119
Other 1.0% 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 1% 32 30 38 85
Margin
Total 102.3 91.6 87.0 85.3 104.4 Share 43.0% 37.5% 19.5% 5.6%
Vote 44.9 39.1 20.4 5.8
Recorded Share 43.0% 37.4% 19.5% 5.6%
Vote 104.4 44.9 39.1 20.4 5.8
Error 0.0%
Method: True Vote 95% 98%
True Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1992 Vote Share
1988 1988 1988 1992 1992 Turnout Mix% Clinton Bush Perot Turnout
DNV - - - - 18.7 16.4 46% 25% 29% -
Dukakis 49.6% 50.7 41.8 48.2 47.2 47.2 41.5 83 5 12 98%
Bush 49.3% 50.4 48.9 47.9 46.9 46.9 41.2 21 59 20 98%
Other 1.1% 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 32 30 38 98%
Total 102.2 91.6 97.1 95.2 113.9 Share 50.9% 30.8% 18.3% 20.2%
Vote 58.0 35.0 20.9 23.0
Recorded Share 43.0% 37.4% 19.5%
Vote 104.4 44.9 39.1 20.4
Bush Dukakis Turnout Share of Clinton Share of DNV
Turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Bush 44% 45% 46% 47% 48%
Clinton Share Clinton Share
90% 50.5% 50.8% 51.1% 51.4% 51.8% 23% 51.4% 51.6% 51.7% 51.9% 52.1%
92% 50.3% 50.6% 50.9% 51.2% 51.5% 22% 51.0% 51.2% 51.3% 51.5% 51.7%
94% 50.1% 50.4% 50.7% 51.0% 51.3% 21% 50.6% 50.8% 50.9% 51.1% 51.2%
96% 49.9% 50.2% 50.5% 50.8% 51.1% 20% 50.2% 50.3% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8%
98% 49.7% 50.0% 50.3% 50.6% 50.9% 19% 49.8% 49.9% 50.1% 50.3% 50.4%
Clinton Margin Clinton Margin
90% 23.0 23.6 24.1 24.7 25.2 23% 23.5 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.3
92% 22.5 23.0 23.6 24.1 24.7 22% 23.1 23.2 23.4 23.6 23.8
94% 21.9 22.4 23.0 23.5 24.1 21% 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.3
96% 21.3 21.9 22.4 23.0 23.5 20% 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.7 22.9
98% 20.8 21.3 21.9 22.4 23.0 19% 21.6 21.8 22.0 22.2 22.4
Bush
Turnout Share of DNV Mortality Dukakis Turnout
44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 96% 97% 98% 99% 100%
Clinton Share Clinton Share
90% 51.4% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2% 6.0% 50.6% 50.7% 50.9% 51.0% 51.2%
92% 51.2% 51.4% 51.5% 51.7% 51.9% 5.5% 50.6% 50.7% 50.9% 51.0% 51.2%
94% 51.0% 51.2% 51.3% 51.5% 51.7% 5.0% 50.6% 50.8% 50.9% 51.1% 51.2%
96% 50.8% 51.0% 51.1% 51.3% 51.5% 4.5% 50.6% 50.8% 50.9% 51.1% 51.3%
98% 50.6% 50.8% 50.9% 51.1% 51.2% 4.0% 50.7% 50.8% 51.0% 51.1% 51.3%
Clinton Margin Clinton Margin
90% 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.7 6.0% 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.5
92% 24.2 24.4 24.7 24.9 25.1 5.5% 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.5
94% 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.3 24.5 5.0% 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.5
96% 23.1 23.3 23.5 23.7 23.9 4.5% 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.5
98% 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.3 4.0% 22.4 22.7 22.9 23.2 23.5
1988
This election marked the beginning of the Bush reign of terror. The Iran-Contra
scandal and a sliding economy had taken it toll on Reagan/Bush. Dukakis was the
early favorite. But as this was a Bush running; the Mighty Wurlitzer was in place.
CNN ambushed Dukakis in the first question of the first debate by letting Willie
Horton loose. But Dukakis may have won anyway. If the 10.6 million (net of stuffed)
uncounted votes had been counted, it would have been much closer than the bogus
official 7 million Bush margin. The exit polls showed a dead-heat.
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 94%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1988 National Exit Poll Voter %
1984 1984 1984 1988 1988 Turnout Mix Dukakis Bush Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 7.7 8% 47% 51% 2% -
Mondale 40.6% 44.5 37.6 35.7 33.6 30.2 33% 92 7 1 85
Reagan 58.8% 56.7 54.5 51.7 48.6 53.1 58% 19 80 1 103
Other 0.7% 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 1% 49 50 1 93
Margin
Total 101.9 92.7 88.0 82.7 91.6 Share 45.6% 53.3% 1.1% -7.7%
Vote 41.8 48.8 1.0 -7.0
Recorded Share 45.6% 53.4% 1.0% -7.7%
Vote 91.6 41.8 48.9 0.9 -7.1
Error -0.1%
Method: True Vote 95% 94%
True Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1988 Vote Share
1984 1984 1984 1988 1988 Turnout Mix% Dukakis Bush Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 11.2 11.0 47% 51% 2% -
Mondale 42.1% 42.9 37.6 40.8 38.3 38.3 37.5 92 7 1 94%
Reagan 57.2% 58.3 54.5 55.4 52.1 52.1 50.9 19 80 1 94%
Other 0.6% 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 49 50 1 94%
Total 101.9 92.7 96.8 91.0 102.2 Share 49.6% 49.3% 1.1% 0.3%
Vote 50.7 50.4 1.1 0.3
Recorded Share 45.6% 53.4% 1.0%
Vote 91.6 41.8 48.9 0.9
Reagan Mondale Turnout Share of Dukakis Share of DNV
Turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Reagan 45% 46% 47% 48% 49%
Dukakis Share Dukakis Share
90% 49.5% 49.9% 50.2% 50.6% 50.9% 21% 50.4% 50.5% 50.6% 50.7% 50.9%
92% 49.2% 49.6% 49.9% 50.3% 50.6% 20% 49.9% 50.0% 50.1% 50.2% 50.3%
94% 48.9% 49.3% 49.6% 50.0% 50.3% 19% 49.4% 49.5% 49.6% 49.7% 49.8%
96% 48.6% 49.0% 49.3% 49.7% 50.0% 18% 48.9% 49.0% 49.1% 49.2% 49.3%
98% 48.3% 48.6% 49.0% 49.4% 49.7% 17% 48.4% 48.5% 48.6% 48.7% 48.8%
Dukakis Margin Dukakis Margin
90% 0.2 0.9 1.6 2.3 3.1 21% 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6
92% -0.5 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.4 20% 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1
94% -1.1 -0.4 0.3 1.1 1.8 19% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6
96% -1.7 -1.0 -0.3 0.4 1.2 18% -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1
98% -2.4 -1.6 -0.9 -0.2 0.5 17% -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5
Reagan
Turnout Share of DNV Mortality Mondale Turnout
45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96%
Dukakis Share Dukakis Share
90% 50.0% 50.1% 50.2% 50.4% 50.5% 6.0% 49.2% 49.4% 49.6% 49.8% 49.9%
92% 49.7% 49.8% 49.9% 50.0% 50.2% 5.5% 49.2% 49.4% 49.6% 49.8% 50.0%
94% 49.4% 49.5% 49.6% 49.7% 49.8% 5.0% 49.3% 49.4% 49.6% 49.8% 50.0%
96% 49.1% 49.2% 49.3% 49.4% 49.5% 4.5% 49.3% 49.4% 49.6% 49.8% 50.0%
98% 48.8% 48.9% 49.0% 49.1% 49.2% 4.0% 49.3% 49.5% 49.6% 49.8% 50.0%
Dukakis Margin Dukakis Margin
90% 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 6.0% -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0
92% 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 5.5% -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0
94% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 5.0% -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1
96% -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 4.5% -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.1
98% -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 4.0% -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.1
1984
A Reagan landslide. The True Vote closely matched the recorded vote.
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 95%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1984 National Exit Poll Voter %
1980 1980 1980 1984 1984 Turnout Mix Mondale Reagan Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 14.8 16% 31% 68% 1% -
Carter 41.0% 40.4 35.5 33.7 32.0 31.5 34% 82 18 0 93
Reagan 50.7% 45.4 43.9 41.7 39.6 40.8 44% 11 88 1 98
Anderson 8.3% 7.3 7.2 6.8 6.5 5.6 6% 49 50 1 81
Margin
Total 93.1 86.6 82.2 78.1 92.7 Share 40.6% 58.7% 0.7% -18.1%
Vote 37.6 54.4 0.6 -16.8
Recorded Share 40.6% 58.8% 0.7% -18.2%
Vote 92.7 37.6 54.5 0.6 -16.9
Error -0.1%
Method: True Vote 95% 95%
True Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1984 Vote Share
1980 1980 1980 1984 1984 Turnout Mix% Mondale Reagan Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 17.9 17.6% 31% 68% 1% -
Carter 42.7% 39.7 35.5 37.7 35.8 35.8 35.2 82 18 0 95%
Reagan 48.9% 45.5 43.9 43.3 41.1 41.1 40.3 11 88 1 95%
Anderson 8.4% 7.8 7.2 7.4 7.1 7.1 6.9 49 50 1 95%
Total 93.1 86.6 88.4 84.0 101.9 Share 42.1% 57.2% 0.6% -15.1%
Vote 42.9 58.3 0.7 -15.4
Recorded Share 40.6% 58.8% 0.7%
Vote 92.7 37.6 54.5 0.6
Reagan Carter Turnout Share of Mondale Share of DNV
Turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Reagan 29% 30% 31% 32% 33%
Mondale Share Mondale Share
90% 41.6% 42.0% 42.4% 42.7% 43.1% 13% 42.6% 42.7% 42.9% 43.1% 43.3%
92% 41.4% 41.8% 42.2% 42.6% 42.9% 12% 42.2% 42.3% 42.5% 42.7% 42.9%
94% 41.3% 41.6% 42.0% 42.4% 42.8% 11% 41.8% 41.9% 42.1% 42.3% 42.5%
96% 41.1% 41.5% 41.8% 42.2% 42.6% 10% 41.4% 41.5% 41.7% 41.9% 42.1%
98% 40.9% 41.3% 41.7% 42.0% 42.4% 9% 41.0% 41.1% 41.3% 41.5% 41.7%
Mondale Margin Mondale Margin
90% -16.4 -15.7 -14.9 -14.2 -13.4 13% -14.9 -14.8 -14.6 -14.4 -14.2
92% -16.8 -16.0 -15.3 -14.5 -13.7 12% -15.4 -15.2 -15.0 -14.8 -14.6
94% -17.1 -16.4 -15.6 -14.9 -14.1 11% -15.8 -15.6 -15.4 -15.2 -15.0
96% -17.5 -16.7 -16.0 -15.2 -14.4 10% -16.2 -16.0 -15.8 -15.6 -15.5
98% -17.8 -17.1 -16.3 -15.5 -14.8 9% -16.6 -16.4 -16.2 -16.0 -15.9
Reagan
Turnout Mondale Share of DNV Mortality Carter Turnout
29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 93% 94% 95% 96% 97%
Mondale Share Mondale Share
90% 42.1% 42.3% 42.5% 42.7% 42.9% 6.0% 41.6% 41.8% 42.0% 42.2% 42.4%
92% 42.0% 42.2% 42.4% 42.6% 42.7% 5.5% 41.7% 41.9% 42.1% 42.2% 42.4%
94% 41.8% 42.0% 42.2% 42.4% 42.6% 5.0% 41.7% 41.9% 42.1% 42.3% 42.5%
96% 41.7% 41.9% 42.0% 42.2% 42.4% 4.5% 41.8% 42.0% 42.2% 42.4% 42.6%
98% 41.5% 41.7% 41.9% 42.0% 42.2% 4.0% 41.9% 42.0% 42.2% 42.4% 42.6%
Mondale Margin Mondale Margin
90% -14.9 -14.7 -14.5 -14.3 -14.1 6.0% -16.4 -16.0 -15.6 -15.3 -14.9
92% -15.3 -15.1 -14.9 -14.7 -14.5 5.5% -16.3 -15.9 -15.5 -15.1 -14.8
94% -15.6 -15.4 -15.2 -15.0 -14.9 5.0% -16.2 -15.8 -15.4 -15.0 -14.6
96% -15.9 -15.8 -15.6 -15.4 -15.2 4.5% -16.1 -15.7 -15.3 -14.9 -14.5
98% -16.3 -16.1 -15.9 -15.8 -15.6 4.0% -15.9 -15.6 -15.2 -14.8 -14.4
1980
Carter wanted to do some good things: conserve energy; bring peace to the ME.
But Reagan and Poppy Bush worked out a deal with the Ayatolla to hold off the
lease of the hostages until Inauguration Day. It was an easy Reagan win.
His True margin was close to 6 million, not the official 8.5 million.
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 94%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1980 National Exit Poll Voter %
1976 1976 1976 1980 1980 Turnout Mix Carter Reagan Anderson Turnout
DNV - - - - 13.9 16% 39% 44% 17% -
Carter 50.1% 44.7 40.8 38.8 36.5 36.4 42% 71 22 7 94
Ford 48.0% 40.4 39.1 37.2 35.0 35.5 41% 11 83 6 95
Other 1.9% 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 0.9 1% 44 42 14 59
Margin
Total 86.7 81.5 77.5 72.8 86.6 Share 41.0% 50.7% 8.3% -9.7%
Vote 35.5 43.9 7.2 -8.4
Recorded Share 41.0% 50.7% 8.3% -9.7%
Vote 86.6 35.5 43.9 7.2 -8.4
Error 0.0%
Method: True Vote 95% 94%
True Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1980 Vote Share
1976 1976 1976 1980 1980 Turnout Mix% Carter Reagan Anderson Turnout
DNV - - - - 15.6 16.8% 39% 44% 17% -
Carter 53.0% 46.0 40.8 43.7 41.0 41.0 44.1 71 22 7 94%
Ford 45.2% 39.2 39.1 37.2 35.0 35.0 37.6 11 83 6 94%
Other 1.8% 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 44 42 14 94%
Total 86.7 81.5 82.4 77.4 93.1 Share 42.7% 48.9% 8.4% -6.3%
Vote 39.7 45.5 7.8 -5.8
Recorded Share 41.0% 50.7% 8.3%
Vote 86.6 35.5 43.9 7.2
Ford Carter Turnout Share of Carter Share of DNV
Turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Ford 37% 38% 39% 40% 41%
Carter Share Carter Share
90% 42.5% 42.8% 43.1% 43.4% 43.7% 13% 43.1% 43.2% 43.4% 43.6% 43.7%
92% 42.3% 42.6% 42.9% 43.2% 43.5% 12% 42.7% 42.9% 43.0% 43.2% 43.4%
94% 42.1% 42.4% 42.7% 43.0% 43.3% 11% 42.3% 42.5% 42.7% 42.8% 43.0%
96% 41.8% 42.1% 42.4% 42.7% 43.0% 10% 41.9% 42.1% 42.3% 42.4% 42.6%
98% 41.6% 41.9% 42.2% 42.5% 42.8% 9% 41.6% 41.7% 41.9% 42.1% 42.2%
Carter Margin Carter Margin
90% -5.8 -5.3 -4.8 -4.4 -3.9 13% -5.5 -5.3 -5.1 -5.0 -4.8
92% -6.3 -5.8 -5.3 -4.9 -4.4 12% -5.8 -5.6 -5.5 -5.3 -5.2
94% -6.8 -6.3 -5.8 -5.4 -4.9 11% -6.2 -6.0 -5.8 -5.7 -5.5
96% -7.3 -6.8 -6.3 -5.9 -5.4 10% -6.5 -6.3 -6.2 -6.0 -5.9
98% -7.8 -7.3 -6.8 -6.4 -5.9 9% -6.9 -6.7 -6.5 -6.4 -6.2
Ford
Turnout Carter Share of DNV Mortality Carter Turnout
37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96%
Carter Share Carter Share
90% 42.7% 42.9% 43.1% 43.3% 43.5% 6.0% 42.3% 42.5% 42.6% 42.8% 42.9%
92% 42.5% 42.7% 42.9% 43.1% 43.2% 5.5% 42.3% 42.5% 42.6% 42.8% 42.9%
94% 42.3% 42.5% 42.7% 42.8% 43.0% 5.0% 42.4% 42.5% 42.7% 42.8% 43.0%
96% 42.1% 42.3% 42.4% 42.6% 42.8% 4.5% 42.4% 42.5% 42.7% 42.8% 43.0%
98% 41.9% 42.1% 42.2% 42.4% 42.5% 4.0% 42.4% 42.5% 42.7% 42.8% 43.0%
Carter Margin Carter Margin
90% -5.2 -5.0 -4.8 -4.7 -4.5 6.0% -6.3 -6.1 -5.8 -5.6 -5.4
92% -5.7 -5.5 -5.3 -5.2 -5.0 5.5% -6.3 -6.1 -5.8 -5.6 -5.4
94% -6.2 -6.0 -5.8 -5.7 -5.5 5.0% -6.3 -6.1 -5.8 -5.6 -5.4
96% -6.6 -6.5 -6.3 -6.2 -6.0 4.5% -6.3 -6.1 -5.8 -5.6 -5.4
98% -7.1 -7.0 -6.8 -6.7 -6.6 4.0% -6.3 -6.1 -5.9 -5.6 -5.4
1976
America needed a change in the White House after the Nixon scandals.
Carter won by close to 6 million votes, although officially his margin was just under 2 million.
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 94%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1976 National Exit Poll Voter %
1972 1972 1972 1976 1976 Turnout Mix Carter Ford Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 11.8 15% 57% 40% 3% -
McGovern 36.2% 34.2 28.2 26.8 25.2 24.5 30% 92 7 1 91
Nixon 60.7% 49.1 47.2 44.8 42.1 43.2 53% 24 74 2 96
Other 3.1% 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 3% 58 39 3 89
Margin
Total 85.8 77.7 73.9 69.4 81.5 Share 50.0% 48.1% 1.9% 1.9%
Vote 40.8 39.2 1.5 1.6
Recorded Share 50.1% 48.0% 1.9% 2.1%
Vote 81.5 40.8 39.1 1.6 1.7
Error 0.1%
Method: True Vote 95% 94%
True Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1976 Vote Share
1972 1972 1972 1976 1976 Turnout Mix% Carter Ford Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 10.1 11.7 57% 40% 3% -
McGovern 0.4% 34.7 28.2 32.9 31.0 31.0 35.7 92 7 1 94%
Nixon 56.6% 48.6 47.2 46.1 43.4 43.4 50.0 24 74 2 94%
Other 2.9% 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.6 58 39 3 94%
Total 85.8 77.7 81.5 76.6 86.7 Share 53.0% 45.2% 1.8% 7.8%
Vote 46.0 39.2 1.5 6.8
Recorded Share 50.1% 48.0% 1.9%
Vote 81.5 40.8 39.1 1.6
Nixon McGovern Turnout Share of Carter Share of DNV
Turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Nixon 55% 56% 57% 58% 59%
Carter Share Carter Share
90% 53.2% 53.4% 53.7% 54.0% 54.2% 26% 53.8% 53.9% 54.0% 54.1% 54.2%
92% 52.8% 53.1% 53.4% 53.6% 53.9% 25% 53.3% 53.4% 53.5% 53.6% 53.7%
94% 52.5% 52.7% 53.0% 53.3% 53.5% 24% 52.8% 52.9% 53.0% 53.1% 53.2%
96% 52.1% 52.4% 52.7% 52.9% 53.2% 23% 52.3% 52.4% 52.5% 52.6% 52.7%
98% 51.8% 52.0% 52.3% 52.6% 52.8% 22% 51.8% 51.9% 52.0% 52.1% 52.2%
Carter Margin Carter Margin
90% 7.1 7.6 8.0 8.5 8.9 26% 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8
92% 6.5 6.9 7.4 7.8 8.3 25% 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4
94% 5.9 6.3 6.8 7.2 7.7 24% 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0
96% 5.3 5.7 6.2 6.6 7.0 23% 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5
98% 4.6 5.1 5.5 6.0 6.4 22% 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1
Nixon
Turnout Carter Share of DNV Mortality McGovern Turnout
55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96%
Carter Share Carter Share
90% 53.4% 53.6% 53.7% 53.9% 54.0% 6.0% 52.8% 52.9% 53.1% 53.2% 53.3%
92% 53.1% 53.2% 53.4% 53.5% 53.6% 5.5% 52.8% 52.9% 53.0% 53.2% 53.3%
94% 52.8% 52.9% 53.0% 53.1% 53.2% 5.0% 52.7% 52.9% 53.0% 53.1% 53.3%
96% 52.4% 52.6% 52.7% 52.8% 52.9% 4.5% 52.7% 52.9% 53.0% 53.1% 53.3%
98% 52.1% 52.2% 52.3% 52.4% 52.5% 4.0% 52.7% 52.8% 53.0% 53.1% 53.2%
Carter Margin Carter Margin
90% 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 6.0% 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.1 7.3
92% 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 5.5% 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.3
94% 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0 5.0% 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.0 7.2
96% 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.3 4.5% 6.3 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.2
98% 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.7 4.0% 6.2 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1
1972
A Nixon landslide. All those dirty tricks were unnecessary. But Rove learned from
the master Donald Segretti.
1968
The only silent majority were the 6 million net uncounted votes.
That’s why Nixon won the official vote by 0.5m.
Humphrey won the True Vote by 2 million.
1972
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 92%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1972 National Exit Poll Voter %
1968 1968 1968 1972 1972 Turnout Mix McGovern Nixon Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 8.6 11% 43% 53% 4% -
Humphrey 42.9% 35.8 31.3 29.7 27.3 27.2 35% 71 28 1 92
Nixon 43.6% 33.1 31.8 30.2 27.8 34.2 44% 6 89 5 113
Wallace 13.6% 10.1 9.9 9.4 8.7 7.8 10% 40 59 1 83
Margin
Total 79.0 73.0 69.3 63.8 77.7 Share 36.2% 60.7% 3.1% -24.5%
Vote 28.2 47.2 2.4 -19.0
Recorded Share 36.2% 60.7% 3.1% -24.4%
Vote 77.7 28.2 47.2 2.4 -19.0
Error 0.0%
Method: True Vote 95% 92%
True Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1972 Vote Share
1968 1968 1968 1972 1972 Turnout Mix% McGovern Nixon Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 16.7 19.5% 43% 53% 4% -
Humphrey 45.3% 35.8 31.3 34.0 31.3 31.3 36.5 71 28 1 92%
Nixon 41.9% 33.1 31.8 31.4 28.9 28.9 33.7 6 89 5 92%
Wallace 12.8% 10.1 9.9 9.6 8.8 8.8 10.3 40 59 1 92%
Total 79.0 73.0 75.0 69.0 85.8 Share 40.4% 56.6% 2.9% -16.2%
Vote 34.7 48.6 2.5 -13.9
Recorded Share 36.2% 60.7% 3.1%
Vote 77.7 28.2 47.2 2.4
Nixon Humphrey Turnout Share of McGovern Share of DNV
Turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Nixon 41% 42% 43% 44% 45%
McGovern Share McGovern Share
90% 40.5% 40.7% 40.9% 41.1% 41.4% 8% 40.7% 40.9% 41.1% 41.3% 41.5%
92% 40.2% 40.4% 40.6% 40.9% 41.1% 7% 40.4% 40.6% 40.8% 41.0% 41.2%
94% 39.9% 40.2% 40.4% 40.6% 40.8% 6% 40.0% 40.2% 40.4% 40.6% 40.8%
96% 39.7% 39.9% 40.1% 40.3% 40.5% 5% 39.7% 39.9% 40.1% 40.3% 40.5%
98% 39.4% 39.6% 39.8% 40.1% 40.3% 4% 39.4% 39.6% 39.8% 39.9% 40.1%
McGovern Margin McGovern Margin
90% -13.8 -13.4 -13.1 -12.7 -12.4 8% -13.7 -13.5 -13.3 -13.2 -13.0
92% -14.3 -13.9 -13.5 -13.2 -12.8 7% -14.0 -13.8 -13.6 -13.5 -13.3
94% -14.7 -14.4 -14.0 -13.6 -13.3 6% -14.2 -14.1 -13.9 -13.7 -13.6
96% -15.2 -14.8 -14.5 -14.1 -13.7 5% -14.5 -14.4 -14.2 -14.0 -13.9
98% -15.6 -15.3 -14.9 -14.6 -14.2 4% -14.8 -14.7 -14.5 -14.3 -14.2
Nixon
Turnout McGovern Share of DNV Mortality Humphrey Turnout
41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 90% 91% 92% 93% 94%
McGovern Share McGovern Share
90% 40.3% 40.5% 40.7% 40.9% 41.1% 6.0% 40.2% 40.3% 40.5% 40.6% 40.7%
92% 40.0% 40.2% 40.4% 40.6% 40.8% 5.5% 40.2% 40.3% 40.4% 40.5% 40.7%
94% 39.8% 40.0% 40.2% 40.3% 40.5% 5.0% 40.2% 40.3% 40.4% 40.5% 40.6%
96% 39.5% 39.7% 39.9% 40.1% 40.2% 4.5% 40.2% 40.3% 40.4% 40.5% 40.6%
98% 39.3% 39.4% 39.6% 39.8% 40.0% 4.0% 40.2% 40.3% 40.4% 40.5% 40.6%
McGovern Margin McGovern Margin
90% -13.8 -13.6 -13.4 -13.3 -13.1 6.0% -14.2 -14.0 -13.9 -13.7 -13.5
92% -14.2 -14.1 -13.9 -13.7 -13.6 5.5% -14.2 -14.1 -13.9 -13.7 -13.5
94% -14.7 -14.5 -14.4 -14.2 -14.0 5.0% -14.3 -14.1 -13.9 -13.7 -13.5
96% -15.1 -15.0 -14.8 -14.7 -14.5 4.5% -14.3 -14.1 -13.9 -13.8 -13.6
98% -15.6 -15.4 -15.3 -15.1 -15.0 4.0% -14.3 -14.1 -14.0 -13.8 -13.6
..........................................................................