TruthIsAll
05-10-2009, 07:55 AM
Mathematical Proof Kerry won! Regardless of How the Numbers are Sliced and Diced
TruthIsAll
May 10, 2009
It is instructive to view the 2004 National Exit Poll timeline. There were three updates prior to the Final.
This analysis shows the effects on Kerry's share of voters who did not vote in 2000
(DNV) along with changes in the returning Gore/Bush mix of the 2004 electorate.
Kerry's share of the DNV group declined steadily from 62% at 4pm to 54% in the Final.
The Final was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible 43/37% Bush/Gore
returning voter mix. Bush voters could not have comprised 43% (52.6m) of the 2004
electorate since there were only 50.46 million Bush voters in 2000. Approximately
2.5m died so there were at most 48m returning Bush voters - indicating that at least
4.5m were phantoms.
Kerry led the NEP timeline up to the Final with 51-52%.
Kerry won every returning voter mix / 12:22am vote share scenario, except for the Final 43/37% and 54% DNV.
Bush needed an impossible 42% minimum returning Bush voter mix and Final NEP vote shares to win.
Assuming 12:22am vote shares and a feasible 41/39% Gore/Bush mix, Kerry won the True Vote by 8.5 million!
With Final NEP vote shares (inflated for Bush to match the vote) and a 41/39% mix, Kerry still won by 4.6 million!
But he did even better than that. We have assumed that all votes cast were counted.
In fact, 3.4 million ballots (spoiled, provisional, late) were never counted.
A large majority of them were Democratic.
This anomaly occurs in every election. The bias always favors the Republicans!
Kerry had approximately 2.5 million of the 3.4m uncounted votes. His margin was reduced by 1.6 million.
Therefore, Kerry’s True margin was approximately 10 million (67-57m)!
The detailed state analysis table indicates that he had approximately 370 EV.
[code]
Time Respondents Gore/Bush Kerry % DNV
4pm 8649 38/41% 62%
730pm 11027 39/42 59
12:22am 13047 39/41 57
Final 13660 37/43 54
2004 NEP - 12:22am 2004 NEP - Final
Voted Mix Votes Kerry Bush Other Voted Mix Votes Kerry Bush Other
2000 2000
DNV 17% 20.79m 57% 41% 2% DNV 17% 20.79m 54% 45% 1%
Gore 39 47.70 91 8 1 Gore 37 45.25 90 10 0
Bush 41 50.14 10 90 0 Bush 43 52.59 9 91 0
Other 3 3.67 64 17 19 Other 3 3.67 64 17 19
Share 51.20% 47.50% 1.30% Share 48.27% 50.99% 0.74%
Votes 122.3m 62.62m 58.09m 1.59m Votes 122.3m 59.03m 62.36m 0.91m
Margin 4.53 million Margin -3.33 million
Kerry share Kerry share
Returning Voters Returning voters
Bush Gore Kerry % DNV Bush Gore Kerry % DNV
Feasibility Mix Mix 4pm 730pm 1222am Final Mix Mix 4pm 730pm 1222am Final
62% 59% 57% 54% 62% 59% 57% 54%
Best Estimate 39% 41% 53.7% 53.2% 52.8% 52.3% 39% 41% 52.9% 52.4% 52.0% 51.5%
Possible 40 40 52.9 52.4 52.0 51.5 40 40 52.1 51.6 51.2 50.7
Implausible 41 39 52.1 51.5 51.2 50.7 41 39 51.3 50.7 50.4 49.9
Impossible 42 38 51.2 50.7 50.4 49.9 42 38 50.4 49.9 49.6 49.1
Impossible 43 37 50.4 49.9 49.6 49.1 43 37 49.6 49.1 48.8 48.3
Kerry margin Kerry margin
Returning voters Returning voters
Bush Gore Kerry % DNV Bush Gore Kerry % DNV
Mix Mix 4pm 730pm 1222am Final Mix Mix 4pm 730pm 1222am Final
62% 59% 57% 54% 62% 59% 57% 54%
Best Estimate 39% 41% 10.6m 9.3m 8.5m 7.3m 39% 41% 7.9m 6.7m 5.8m 4.6m
Plausible 40 40 8.6 7.4 6.5 5.3 40 40 5.9 4.7 3.9 2.6
Implausible 41 39 6.6 5.4 4.5 3.3 41 39 4.0 2.7 1.9 0.6
Impossible 42 38 4.6 3.4 2.5 1.3 42 38 2.0 0.7 (0.1) (1.3)
Impossible 43 37 2.6 1.4 0.5 (0.7) 43 37 0.0 (1.2) (2.1) (3.3)
True Vote Analysis
Turnout of Uncounted share
Cast Recorded Unctd Rate Mortal Gore Bush Kerry Bush Other
2004 125,737 122,294 3,443 2.74% 4.88% 98.0% 98.0% 75% 24% 1%
2000 110,825 105,421 5,404 4.88%
Voted National 2004 370 EV
2000 Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Total
DNV 17.84% 57.00% 41.00% 2.00% 12,785 9,195 449 22,429
Gore 40.82% 91.00% 8.00% 1.00% 46,706 4,106 513 51,325
Bush 38.37% 10.00% 90.00% 0.00% 4,825 43,423 0 48,247
Other 2.97% 64.00% 17.00% 19.00% 2,391 635 710 3,736
True Vote 53.05% 45.62% 1.33% 66,707 57,359 1,672 125,737
Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% 59,028 62,041 1,224 122,294
Deviation 4.78% -5.11% 0.33% 7,678 -4,682 447 3,443
Exit Poll (WPE) 51.92% 47.08% 1.00% 63,492 57,576 1,225 122,294
Deviation 1.13% -1.46% 0.33% 3,214 -218 447 3,443
Sensitivity Analysis
Kerry % Kerry National Vote Share Kerry % Kerry National Vote Share
Bush Kerry share of returning Gore voters DNV Kerry share of returning Gore voters
53.05% 87% 89% 90% 91% 92% 53.05% 87% 89% 90% 91% 92%
12% 52.2% 53.0% 53.4% 53.8% 54.2% 62% 52.3% 53.1% 53.5% 53.9% 54.4%
11% 51.8% 52.6% 53.0% 53.4% 53.8% 59% 51.8% 52.6% 53.0% 53.4% 53.8%
10% 51.4% 52.2% 52.6% 53.1% 53.5% 57% 51.4% 52.2% 52.6% 53.1% 53.5%
9% 51.0% 51.9% 52.3% 52.7% 53.1% 54% 50.9% 51.7% 52.1% 52.5% 52.9%
8% 50.7% 51.5% 51.9% 52.3% 52.7% 53% 50.7% 51.5% 51.9% 52.3% 52.7%
Kerry % Kerry Electoral Vote Kerry % Kerry Vote Margin
Incr DNV Increase in share of Gore voters DNV Kerry share of returning Gore voters
370 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 9,348 87% 89% 90% 91% 92%
6% 390 398 398 398 413 62% 7,484 9,537 10,563 11,590 12,616
4% 390 390 398 398 398 59% 6,138 8,191 9,217 10,244 11,270
2% 390 390 390 390 398 57% 5,241 7,294 8,320 9,347 10,373
1% 379 390 390 390 390 54% 3,895 5,948 6,975 8,001 9,028
0% 370 381 390 390 390 53% 3,446 5,499 6,526 7,552 8,579
Electoral Vote Analysis
2004 Recorded Exit Poll True Vote
Kerry Bush Margin EV Kerry Bush Margin EV Kerry Bush Margin EV
59,028 62,041 -3,012 252 65,280 59,198 6,082 338 66,702 57,363 9,340 370
48.27% 50.73% -2.46% 51.92% 47.08% 4.84% 53.05% 45.62% 7.43%
AL 36.8% 62.5% -25.6% 41.8% 57.5% -15.6% 46.3% 52.8% -6.54%
AK 35.5% 61.1% -25.5% 40.2% 56.4% -16.2% 36.0% 61.1% -25.12%
AZ 44.4% 54.9% -10.5% 44.5% 54.7% -10.2% 50.6% 47.9% 2.66% 10
AR 44.5% 54.3% -9.8% 45.2% 53.7% -8.5% 49.5% 49.3% 0.25% 6
CA 54.3% 44.4% 9.9% 55 60.1% 38.6% 21.5% 55 58.7% 39.8% 18.93% 55
CO 47.0% 51.7% -4.7% 50.1% 48.6% 1.4% 9 48.9% 49.3% -0.44%
CT 54.3% 43.9% 10.4% 7 62.3% 35.9% 26.4% 7 59.2% 39.0% 20.16% 7
DE 53.3% 45.8% 7.6% 3 61.3% 37.8% 23.5% 3 58.8% 39.9% 18.86% 3
DC 89.2% 9.3% 79.8% 3 90.6% 7.9% 82.6% 3 88.7% 9.5% 79.19% 3
FL 47.1% 52.1% -5.0% 51.0% 48.2% 2.8% 27 52.0% 46.8% 5.13% 27
GA 41.4% 58.0% -16.6% 42.0% 57.3% -15.3% 47.6% 51.3% -3.76%
HI 54.0% 45.3% 8.7% 4 58.1% 41.2% 16.9% 4 60.0% 38.1% 21.84% 4
ID 30.3% 68.4% -38.1% 32.3% 66.4% -34.1% 33.0% 65.6% -32.63%
IL 54.8% 44.5% 10.3% 21 56.6% 42.7% 13.8% 21 58.9% 39.9% 18.93% 21
IN 39.3% 59.9% -20.7% 40.4% 58.8% -18.5% 46.6% 52.4% -5.81%
IA 49.2% 49.9% -0.7% 50.7% 48.4% 2.3% 7 52.9% 45.9% 6.98% 7
KS 36.6% 62.0% -25.4% 37.2% 61.5% -24.3% 42.5% 56.2% -13.76%
KY 39.7% 59.6% -19.9% 39.9% 59.4% -19.5% 45.5% 53.4% -7.94%
LA 42.2% 56.7% -14.5% 43.5% 55.4% -11.9% 49.7% 49.3% 0.45% 9
ME 53.6% 44.6% 9.0% 4 55.6% 42.6% 13.0% 4 56.3% 41.9% 14.42% 4
MD 55.9% 42.9% 13.0% 10 59.6% 39.3% 20.3% 10 60.7% 38.0% 22.77% 10
MA 61.9% 36.8% 25.2% 12 65.8% 32.9% 32.9% 12 66.5% 31.4% 35.11% 12
MI 51.2% 47.8% 3.4% 17 54.4% 44.6% 9.8% 17 54.9% 43.9% 10.99% 17
MN 51.1% 47.6% 3.5% 10 55.7% 43.0% 12.7% 10 54.2% 44.0% 10.11% 10
MS 39.8% 59.4% -19.7% 49.0% 50.2% -1.2% 47.3% 51.8% -4.50%
MO 46.1% 53.3% -7.2% 49.0% 50.4% -1.4% 51.9% 47.0% 4.90% 11
MT 38.6% 59.1% -20.5% 37.3% 60.4% -23.1% 40.9% 57.2% -16.28%
NE 32.7% 65.9% -33.2% 37.0% 61.5% -24.5% 37.6% 61.1% -23.56%
NV 47.9% 50.5% -2.6% 52.8% 45.5% 7.3% 5 52.5% 45.9% 6.61% 5
NH 50.2% 48.9% 1.4% 4 57.2% 41.9% 15.4% 4 52.8% 45.6% 7.18% 4
NJ 52.9% 46.2% 6.7% 15 57.5% 41.7% 15.8% 15 59.5% 39.2% 20.25% 15
NM 49.0% 49.8% -0.8% 53.0% 45.8% 7.2% 5 54.2% 44.4% 9.77% 5
NY 58.4% 40.1% 18.3% 31 64.5% 34.0% 30.5% 31 64.1% 34.4% 29.65% 31
NC 43.6% 56.0% -12.4% 49.5% 50.1% -0.5% 47.0% 52.1% -5.15%
ND 35.5% 62.9% -27.4% 34.6% 63.7% -29.1% 40.4% 58.1% -17.73%
OH 48.7% 50.8% -2.1% 54.0% 45.5% 8.5% 20 51.5% 47.2% 4.27% 20
OK 34.4% 65.6% -31.1% 33.8% 66.2% -32.3% 43.3% 55.9% -12.65%
OR 51.3% 47.2% 4.2% 7 52.2% 46.3% 6.0% 7 54.2% 44.0% 10.12% 7
PA 50.9% 48.4% 2.5% 21 55.1% 44.2% 10.9% 21 54.6% 44.1% 10.56% 21
RI 59.4% 38.7% 20.8% 4 62.1% 36.0% 26.1% 4 66.4% 31.7% 34.73% 4
SC 40.9% 58.0% -17.1% 45.8% 53.1% -7.4% 48.5% 50.5% -1.96%
SD 38.4% 59.9% -21.5% 35.9% 62.5% -26.6% 41.2% 57.8% -16.62%
TN 42.5% 56.8% -14.3% 43.2% 56.1% -13.0% 49.4% 49.7% -0.28%
TX 38.2% 61.1% -22.9% 42.0% 57.3% -15.3% 43.6% 55.3% -11.79%
UT 26.0% 71.5% -45.5% 28.1% 69.4% -41.2% 33.5% 64.9% -31.36%
VT 58.9% 38.8% 20.1% 3 66.5% 31.2% 35.3% 3 59.3% 38.6% 20.72% 3
VA 45.5% 53.7% -8.2% 49.8% 49.3% 0.5% 13 49.5% 49.3% 0.18% 13
WA 52.8% 45.6% 7.2% 11 56.8% 41.6% 15.2% 11 55.9% 42.5% 13.31% 11
WV 43.2% 56.1% -12.9% 40.2% 59.0% -18.8% 50.2% 48.7% 1.55% 5
WI 49.7% 49.3% 0.4% 10 52.1% 46.9% 5.2% 10 53.0% 45.6% 7.42% 10
WY 29.1% 68.9% -39.8% 32.6% 65.4% -32.8% 32.3% 66.4% -34.18%
State True Vote deviations from recorded vote and unadjusted Edison-Mitofsky exit poll (WPE/ IMS method)
The True vote is within 3% of the exit poll in 31 states
2004 Kerry Vote shares Kerry
Kerry Gore Bush Other DNV True Recorded TrueDiff <3% Exit TrueDiff <3%
Share 91% 10% 64% 57% 53.05% 48.38% 4.67% 11 51.92% -1.13% 31
Total 46,789 4,715 2,431 12,766 66,702 59,028 7,674 65,280 1,423
AL 88.9% 7.6% 55.5% 46.8% 46.3% 36.8% 9.41% 41.8% -4.41%
AK 88.6% 7.4% 54.5% 45.6% 36.0% 35.5% 0.50% 1 40.2% 4.15%
AZ 90.3% 9.2% 61.1% 53.6% 50.6% 44.4% 6.19% 44.5% -6.04%
AR 90.3% 9.2% 61.2% 53.7% 49.5% 44.5% 4.96% 45.2% -4.31%
CA 92.1% 11.3% 68.5% 62.4% 58.7% 54.3% 4.39% 60.1% 1.41% 1
CO 90.8% 9.7% 63.1% 55.9% 48.9% 47.0% 1.84% 1 50.1% 1.21% 1
CT 92.1% 11.3% 68.5% 62.4% 59.2% 54.3% 4.89% 62.3% 3.11%
DE 91.9% 11.1% 67.8% 61.5% 58.8% 53.3% 5.46% 61.3% 2.49% 1
DC 98.6% 18.5% 94.5% 93.5% 88.7% 89.2% -0.46% 1 90.6% 1.86% 1
FL 90.8% 9.8% 63.1% 56.0% 52.0% 47.1% 4.88% 51.0% -0.98% 1
GA 89.7% 8.6% 58.9% 50.9% 47.6% 41.4% 6.19% 42.0% -5.54%
HI 92.1% 11.2% 68.3% 62.1% 60.0% 54.0% 5.94% 58.1% -1.84% 1
ID 87.6% 6.3% 50.6% 41.0% 33.0% 30.3% 2.72% 1 32.3% -0.72% 1
IL 92.2% 11.4% 68.9% 62.8% 58.9% 54.8% 4.03% 56.6% -2.28% 1
IN 89.3% 8.1% 57.3% 49.0% 46.6% 39.3% 7.36% 40.4% -6.26%
IA 91.2% 10.2% 64.7% 57.9% 52.9% 49.2% 3.63% 50.7% -2.13% 1
KS 88.8% 7.6% 55.3% 46.6% 42.5% 36.6% 5.84% 37.2% -5.29%
KY 89.4% 8.2% 57.6% 49.4% 45.5% 39.7% 5.81% 39.9% -5.61%
LA 89.9% 8.7% 59.5% 51.6% 49.7% 42.2% 7.50% 43.5% -6.20%
ME 92.0% 11.1% 68.0% 61.7% 56.3% 53.6% 2.73% 1 55.6% -0.73% 1
MD 92.4% 11.6% 69.7% 63.8% 60.7% 55.9% 4.82% 59.6% -1.17% 1
MA 93.5% 12.8% 74.2% 69.2% 66.5% 61.9% 4.60% 65.8% -0.75% 1
MI 91.6% 10.6% 66.2% 59.6% 54.9% 51.2% 3.68% 54.4% -0.48% 1
MN 91.5% 10.6% 66.1% 59.5% 54.2% 51.1% 3.06% 55.7% 1.54% 1
MS 89.4% 8.2% 57.7% 49.4% 47.3% 39.8% 7.55% 49.0% 1.70% 1
MO 90.6% 9.6% 62.4% 55.1% 51.9% 46.1% 5.81% 49.0% -2.91% 1
MT 89.2% 8.0% 56.8% 48.4% 40.9% 38.6% 2.34% 1 37.3% -3.64%
NE 88.1% 6.8% 52.4% 43.1% 37.6% 32.7% 4.88% 37.0% -0.53% 1
NV 90.9% 9.9% 63.7% 56.7% 52.5% 47.9% 4.67% 52.8% 0.28% 1
NH 91.4% 10.4% 65.5% 58.8% 52.8% 50.2% 2.57% 1 57.2% 4.43%
NJ 91.9% 11.0% 67.5% 61.1% 59.5% 52.9% 6.53% 57.5% -1.98% 1
NM 91.1% 10.2% 64.6% 57.7% 54.2% 49.0% 5.11% 53.0% -1.11% 1
NY 92.9% 12.1% 71.5% 66.0% 64.1% 58.4% 5.68% 64.5% 0.42% 1
NC 90.1% 9.0% 60.5% 52.8% 47.0% 43.6% 3.38% 49.5% 2.57% 1
ND 88.6% 7.4% 54.5% 45.6% 40.4% 35.5% 4.87% 34.6% -5.72%
OH 91.1% 10.1% 64.3% 57.4% 51.5% 48.7% 2.78% 1 54.0% 2.52% 1
OK 88.4% 7.1% 53.7% 44.7% 43.3% 34.4% 8.82% 33.8% -9.42%
OR 91.6% 10.6% 66.3% 59.7% 54.2% 51.3% 2.82% 1 52.2% -1.92% 1
PA 91.5% 10.6% 66.0% 59.4% 54.6% 50.9% 3.72% 55.1% 0.48% 1
RI 93.1% 12.3% 72.3% 66.9% 66.4% 59.4% 6.99% 62.1% -4.34%
SC 89.6% 8.5% 58.5% 50.4% 48.5% 40.9% 7.60% 45.8% -2.75% 1
SD 89.2% 8.0% 56.7% 48.2% 41.2% 38.4% 2.72% 1 35.9% -5.27%
TN 89.9% 8.8% 59.7% 51.9% 49.4% 42.5% 6.87% 43.2% -6.22%
TX 89.1% 7.9% 56.5% 48.1% 43.6% 38.2% 5.33% 42.0% -1.53% 1
UT 86.8% 5.4% 47.4% 37.2% 33.5% 26.0% 7.51% 28.1% -5.36%
VT 93.0% 12.2% 72.0% 66.5% 59.3% 58.9% 0.35% 1 66.5% 7.25%
VA 90.5% 9.4% 61.9% 54.5% 49.5% 45.5% 4.04% 49.8% 0.31% 1
WA 91.8% 10.9% 67.4% 61.1% 55.9% 52.8% 3.04% 56.8% 0.96% 1
WV 90.1% 9.0% 60.2% 52.5% 50.2% 43.2% 7.03% 40.2% -9.98%
WI 91.3% 10.3% 65.1% 58.3% 53.0% 49.7% 3.28% 52.1% -0.88% 1
WY 87.4% 6.0% 49.7% 39.9% 32.3% 29.1% 3.19% 32.6% 0.31% 1
TruthIsAll
May 10, 2009
It is instructive to view the 2004 National Exit Poll timeline. There were three updates prior to the Final.
This analysis shows the effects on Kerry's share of voters who did not vote in 2000
(DNV) along with changes in the returning Gore/Bush mix of the 2004 electorate.
Kerry's share of the DNV group declined steadily from 62% at 4pm to 54% in the Final.
The Final was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible 43/37% Bush/Gore
returning voter mix. Bush voters could not have comprised 43% (52.6m) of the 2004
electorate since there were only 50.46 million Bush voters in 2000. Approximately
2.5m died so there were at most 48m returning Bush voters - indicating that at least
4.5m were phantoms.
Kerry led the NEP timeline up to the Final with 51-52%.
Kerry won every returning voter mix / 12:22am vote share scenario, except for the Final 43/37% and 54% DNV.
Bush needed an impossible 42% minimum returning Bush voter mix and Final NEP vote shares to win.
Assuming 12:22am vote shares and a feasible 41/39% Gore/Bush mix, Kerry won the True Vote by 8.5 million!
With Final NEP vote shares (inflated for Bush to match the vote) and a 41/39% mix, Kerry still won by 4.6 million!
But he did even better than that. We have assumed that all votes cast were counted.
In fact, 3.4 million ballots (spoiled, provisional, late) were never counted.
A large majority of them were Democratic.
This anomaly occurs in every election. The bias always favors the Republicans!
Kerry had approximately 2.5 million of the 3.4m uncounted votes. His margin was reduced by 1.6 million.
Therefore, Kerry’s True margin was approximately 10 million (67-57m)!
The detailed state analysis table indicates that he had approximately 370 EV.
[code]
Time Respondents Gore/Bush Kerry % DNV
4pm 8649 38/41% 62%
730pm 11027 39/42 59
12:22am 13047 39/41 57
Final 13660 37/43 54
2004 NEP - 12:22am 2004 NEP - Final
Voted Mix Votes Kerry Bush Other Voted Mix Votes Kerry Bush Other
2000 2000
DNV 17% 20.79m 57% 41% 2% DNV 17% 20.79m 54% 45% 1%
Gore 39 47.70 91 8 1 Gore 37 45.25 90 10 0
Bush 41 50.14 10 90 0 Bush 43 52.59 9 91 0
Other 3 3.67 64 17 19 Other 3 3.67 64 17 19
Share 51.20% 47.50% 1.30% Share 48.27% 50.99% 0.74%
Votes 122.3m 62.62m 58.09m 1.59m Votes 122.3m 59.03m 62.36m 0.91m
Margin 4.53 million Margin -3.33 million
Kerry share Kerry share
Returning Voters Returning voters
Bush Gore Kerry % DNV Bush Gore Kerry % DNV
Feasibility Mix Mix 4pm 730pm 1222am Final Mix Mix 4pm 730pm 1222am Final
62% 59% 57% 54% 62% 59% 57% 54%
Best Estimate 39% 41% 53.7% 53.2% 52.8% 52.3% 39% 41% 52.9% 52.4% 52.0% 51.5%
Possible 40 40 52.9 52.4 52.0 51.5 40 40 52.1 51.6 51.2 50.7
Implausible 41 39 52.1 51.5 51.2 50.7 41 39 51.3 50.7 50.4 49.9
Impossible 42 38 51.2 50.7 50.4 49.9 42 38 50.4 49.9 49.6 49.1
Impossible 43 37 50.4 49.9 49.6 49.1 43 37 49.6 49.1 48.8 48.3
Kerry margin Kerry margin
Returning voters Returning voters
Bush Gore Kerry % DNV Bush Gore Kerry % DNV
Mix Mix 4pm 730pm 1222am Final Mix Mix 4pm 730pm 1222am Final
62% 59% 57% 54% 62% 59% 57% 54%
Best Estimate 39% 41% 10.6m 9.3m 8.5m 7.3m 39% 41% 7.9m 6.7m 5.8m 4.6m
Plausible 40 40 8.6 7.4 6.5 5.3 40 40 5.9 4.7 3.9 2.6
Implausible 41 39 6.6 5.4 4.5 3.3 41 39 4.0 2.7 1.9 0.6
Impossible 42 38 4.6 3.4 2.5 1.3 42 38 2.0 0.7 (0.1) (1.3)
Impossible 43 37 2.6 1.4 0.5 (0.7) 43 37 0.0 (1.2) (2.1) (3.3)
True Vote Analysis
Turnout of Uncounted share
Cast Recorded Unctd Rate Mortal Gore Bush Kerry Bush Other
2004 125,737 122,294 3,443 2.74% 4.88% 98.0% 98.0% 75% 24% 1%
2000 110,825 105,421 5,404 4.88%
Voted National 2004 370 EV
2000 Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Total
DNV 17.84% 57.00% 41.00% 2.00% 12,785 9,195 449 22,429
Gore 40.82% 91.00% 8.00% 1.00% 46,706 4,106 513 51,325
Bush 38.37% 10.00% 90.00% 0.00% 4,825 43,423 0 48,247
Other 2.97% 64.00% 17.00% 19.00% 2,391 635 710 3,736
True Vote 53.05% 45.62% 1.33% 66,707 57,359 1,672 125,737
Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% 59,028 62,041 1,224 122,294
Deviation 4.78% -5.11% 0.33% 7,678 -4,682 447 3,443
Exit Poll (WPE) 51.92% 47.08% 1.00% 63,492 57,576 1,225 122,294
Deviation 1.13% -1.46% 0.33% 3,214 -218 447 3,443
Sensitivity Analysis
Kerry % Kerry National Vote Share Kerry % Kerry National Vote Share
Bush Kerry share of returning Gore voters DNV Kerry share of returning Gore voters
53.05% 87% 89% 90% 91% 92% 53.05% 87% 89% 90% 91% 92%
12% 52.2% 53.0% 53.4% 53.8% 54.2% 62% 52.3% 53.1% 53.5% 53.9% 54.4%
11% 51.8% 52.6% 53.0% 53.4% 53.8% 59% 51.8% 52.6% 53.0% 53.4% 53.8%
10% 51.4% 52.2% 52.6% 53.1% 53.5% 57% 51.4% 52.2% 52.6% 53.1% 53.5%
9% 51.0% 51.9% 52.3% 52.7% 53.1% 54% 50.9% 51.7% 52.1% 52.5% 52.9%
8% 50.7% 51.5% 51.9% 52.3% 52.7% 53% 50.7% 51.5% 51.9% 52.3% 52.7%
Kerry % Kerry Electoral Vote Kerry % Kerry Vote Margin
Incr DNV Increase in share of Gore voters DNV Kerry share of returning Gore voters
370 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 9,348 87% 89% 90% 91% 92%
6% 390 398 398 398 413 62% 7,484 9,537 10,563 11,590 12,616
4% 390 390 398 398 398 59% 6,138 8,191 9,217 10,244 11,270
2% 390 390 390 390 398 57% 5,241 7,294 8,320 9,347 10,373
1% 379 390 390 390 390 54% 3,895 5,948 6,975 8,001 9,028
0% 370 381 390 390 390 53% 3,446 5,499 6,526 7,552 8,579
Electoral Vote Analysis
2004 Recorded Exit Poll True Vote
Kerry Bush Margin EV Kerry Bush Margin EV Kerry Bush Margin EV
59,028 62,041 -3,012 252 65,280 59,198 6,082 338 66,702 57,363 9,340 370
48.27% 50.73% -2.46% 51.92% 47.08% 4.84% 53.05% 45.62% 7.43%
AL 36.8% 62.5% -25.6% 41.8% 57.5% -15.6% 46.3% 52.8% -6.54%
AK 35.5% 61.1% -25.5% 40.2% 56.4% -16.2% 36.0% 61.1% -25.12%
AZ 44.4% 54.9% -10.5% 44.5% 54.7% -10.2% 50.6% 47.9% 2.66% 10
AR 44.5% 54.3% -9.8% 45.2% 53.7% -8.5% 49.5% 49.3% 0.25% 6
CA 54.3% 44.4% 9.9% 55 60.1% 38.6% 21.5% 55 58.7% 39.8% 18.93% 55
CO 47.0% 51.7% -4.7% 50.1% 48.6% 1.4% 9 48.9% 49.3% -0.44%
CT 54.3% 43.9% 10.4% 7 62.3% 35.9% 26.4% 7 59.2% 39.0% 20.16% 7
DE 53.3% 45.8% 7.6% 3 61.3% 37.8% 23.5% 3 58.8% 39.9% 18.86% 3
DC 89.2% 9.3% 79.8% 3 90.6% 7.9% 82.6% 3 88.7% 9.5% 79.19% 3
FL 47.1% 52.1% -5.0% 51.0% 48.2% 2.8% 27 52.0% 46.8% 5.13% 27
GA 41.4% 58.0% -16.6% 42.0% 57.3% -15.3% 47.6% 51.3% -3.76%
HI 54.0% 45.3% 8.7% 4 58.1% 41.2% 16.9% 4 60.0% 38.1% 21.84% 4
ID 30.3% 68.4% -38.1% 32.3% 66.4% -34.1% 33.0% 65.6% -32.63%
IL 54.8% 44.5% 10.3% 21 56.6% 42.7% 13.8% 21 58.9% 39.9% 18.93% 21
IN 39.3% 59.9% -20.7% 40.4% 58.8% -18.5% 46.6% 52.4% -5.81%
IA 49.2% 49.9% -0.7% 50.7% 48.4% 2.3% 7 52.9% 45.9% 6.98% 7
KS 36.6% 62.0% -25.4% 37.2% 61.5% -24.3% 42.5% 56.2% -13.76%
KY 39.7% 59.6% -19.9% 39.9% 59.4% -19.5% 45.5% 53.4% -7.94%
LA 42.2% 56.7% -14.5% 43.5% 55.4% -11.9% 49.7% 49.3% 0.45% 9
ME 53.6% 44.6% 9.0% 4 55.6% 42.6% 13.0% 4 56.3% 41.9% 14.42% 4
MD 55.9% 42.9% 13.0% 10 59.6% 39.3% 20.3% 10 60.7% 38.0% 22.77% 10
MA 61.9% 36.8% 25.2% 12 65.8% 32.9% 32.9% 12 66.5% 31.4% 35.11% 12
MI 51.2% 47.8% 3.4% 17 54.4% 44.6% 9.8% 17 54.9% 43.9% 10.99% 17
MN 51.1% 47.6% 3.5% 10 55.7% 43.0% 12.7% 10 54.2% 44.0% 10.11% 10
MS 39.8% 59.4% -19.7% 49.0% 50.2% -1.2% 47.3% 51.8% -4.50%
MO 46.1% 53.3% -7.2% 49.0% 50.4% -1.4% 51.9% 47.0% 4.90% 11
MT 38.6% 59.1% -20.5% 37.3% 60.4% -23.1% 40.9% 57.2% -16.28%
NE 32.7% 65.9% -33.2% 37.0% 61.5% -24.5% 37.6% 61.1% -23.56%
NV 47.9% 50.5% -2.6% 52.8% 45.5% 7.3% 5 52.5% 45.9% 6.61% 5
NH 50.2% 48.9% 1.4% 4 57.2% 41.9% 15.4% 4 52.8% 45.6% 7.18% 4
NJ 52.9% 46.2% 6.7% 15 57.5% 41.7% 15.8% 15 59.5% 39.2% 20.25% 15
NM 49.0% 49.8% -0.8% 53.0% 45.8% 7.2% 5 54.2% 44.4% 9.77% 5
NY 58.4% 40.1% 18.3% 31 64.5% 34.0% 30.5% 31 64.1% 34.4% 29.65% 31
NC 43.6% 56.0% -12.4% 49.5% 50.1% -0.5% 47.0% 52.1% -5.15%
ND 35.5% 62.9% -27.4% 34.6% 63.7% -29.1% 40.4% 58.1% -17.73%
OH 48.7% 50.8% -2.1% 54.0% 45.5% 8.5% 20 51.5% 47.2% 4.27% 20
OK 34.4% 65.6% -31.1% 33.8% 66.2% -32.3% 43.3% 55.9% -12.65%
OR 51.3% 47.2% 4.2% 7 52.2% 46.3% 6.0% 7 54.2% 44.0% 10.12% 7
PA 50.9% 48.4% 2.5% 21 55.1% 44.2% 10.9% 21 54.6% 44.1% 10.56% 21
RI 59.4% 38.7% 20.8% 4 62.1% 36.0% 26.1% 4 66.4% 31.7% 34.73% 4
SC 40.9% 58.0% -17.1% 45.8% 53.1% -7.4% 48.5% 50.5% -1.96%
SD 38.4% 59.9% -21.5% 35.9% 62.5% -26.6% 41.2% 57.8% -16.62%
TN 42.5% 56.8% -14.3% 43.2% 56.1% -13.0% 49.4% 49.7% -0.28%
TX 38.2% 61.1% -22.9% 42.0% 57.3% -15.3% 43.6% 55.3% -11.79%
UT 26.0% 71.5% -45.5% 28.1% 69.4% -41.2% 33.5% 64.9% -31.36%
VT 58.9% 38.8% 20.1% 3 66.5% 31.2% 35.3% 3 59.3% 38.6% 20.72% 3
VA 45.5% 53.7% -8.2% 49.8% 49.3% 0.5% 13 49.5% 49.3% 0.18% 13
WA 52.8% 45.6% 7.2% 11 56.8% 41.6% 15.2% 11 55.9% 42.5% 13.31% 11
WV 43.2% 56.1% -12.9% 40.2% 59.0% -18.8% 50.2% 48.7% 1.55% 5
WI 49.7% 49.3% 0.4% 10 52.1% 46.9% 5.2% 10 53.0% 45.6% 7.42% 10
WY 29.1% 68.9% -39.8% 32.6% 65.4% -32.8% 32.3% 66.4% -34.18%
State True Vote deviations from recorded vote and unadjusted Edison-Mitofsky exit poll (WPE/ IMS method)
The True vote is within 3% of the exit poll in 31 states
2004 Kerry Vote shares Kerry
Kerry Gore Bush Other DNV True Recorded TrueDiff <3% Exit TrueDiff <3%
Share 91% 10% 64% 57% 53.05% 48.38% 4.67% 11 51.92% -1.13% 31
Total 46,789 4,715 2,431 12,766 66,702 59,028 7,674 65,280 1,423
AL 88.9% 7.6% 55.5% 46.8% 46.3% 36.8% 9.41% 41.8% -4.41%
AK 88.6% 7.4% 54.5% 45.6% 36.0% 35.5% 0.50% 1 40.2% 4.15%
AZ 90.3% 9.2% 61.1% 53.6% 50.6% 44.4% 6.19% 44.5% -6.04%
AR 90.3% 9.2% 61.2% 53.7% 49.5% 44.5% 4.96% 45.2% -4.31%
CA 92.1% 11.3% 68.5% 62.4% 58.7% 54.3% 4.39% 60.1% 1.41% 1
CO 90.8% 9.7% 63.1% 55.9% 48.9% 47.0% 1.84% 1 50.1% 1.21% 1
CT 92.1% 11.3% 68.5% 62.4% 59.2% 54.3% 4.89% 62.3% 3.11%
DE 91.9% 11.1% 67.8% 61.5% 58.8% 53.3% 5.46% 61.3% 2.49% 1
DC 98.6% 18.5% 94.5% 93.5% 88.7% 89.2% -0.46% 1 90.6% 1.86% 1
FL 90.8% 9.8% 63.1% 56.0% 52.0% 47.1% 4.88% 51.0% -0.98% 1
GA 89.7% 8.6% 58.9% 50.9% 47.6% 41.4% 6.19% 42.0% -5.54%
HI 92.1% 11.2% 68.3% 62.1% 60.0% 54.0% 5.94% 58.1% -1.84% 1
ID 87.6% 6.3% 50.6% 41.0% 33.0% 30.3% 2.72% 1 32.3% -0.72% 1
IL 92.2% 11.4% 68.9% 62.8% 58.9% 54.8% 4.03% 56.6% -2.28% 1
IN 89.3% 8.1% 57.3% 49.0% 46.6% 39.3% 7.36% 40.4% -6.26%
IA 91.2% 10.2% 64.7% 57.9% 52.9% 49.2% 3.63% 50.7% -2.13% 1
KS 88.8% 7.6% 55.3% 46.6% 42.5% 36.6% 5.84% 37.2% -5.29%
KY 89.4% 8.2% 57.6% 49.4% 45.5% 39.7% 5.81% 39.9% -5.61%
LA 89.9% 8.7% 59.5% 51.6% 49.7% 42.2% 7.50% 43.5% -6.20%
ME 92.0% 11.1% 68.0% 61.7% 56.3% 53.6% 2.73% 1 55.6% -0.73% 1
MD 92.4% 11.6% 69.7% 63.8% 60.7% 55.9% 4.82% 59.6% -1.17% 1
MA 93.5% 12.8% 74.2% 69.2% 66.5% 61.9% 4.60% 65.8% -0.75% 1
MI 91.6% 10.6% 66.2% 59.6% 54.9% 51.2% 3.68% 54.4% -0.48% 1
MN 91.5% 10.6% 66.1% 59.5% 54.2% 51.1% 3.06% 55.7% 1.54% 1
MS 89.4% 8.2% 57.7% 49.4% 47.3% 39.8% 7.55% 49.0% 1.70% 1
MO 90.6% 9.6% 62.4% 55.1% 51.9% 46.1% 5.81% 49.0% -2.91% 1
MT 89.2% 8.0% 56.8% 48.4% 40.9% 38.6% 2.34% 1 37.3% -3.64%
NE 88.1% 6.8% 52.4% 43.1% 37.6% 32.7% 4.88% 37.0% -0.53% 1
NV 90.9% 9.9% 63.7% 56.7% 52.5% 47.9% 4.67% 52.8% 0.28% 1
NH 91.4% 10.4% 65.5% 58.8% 52.8% 50.2% 2.57% 1 57.2% 4.43%
NJ 91.9% 11.0% 67.5% 61.1% 59.5% 52.9% 6.53% 57.5% -1.98% 1
NM 91.1% 10.2% 64.6% 57.7% 54.2% 49.0% 5.11% 53.0% -1.11% 1
NY 92.9% 12.1% 71.5% 66.0% 64.1% 58.4% 5.68% 64.5% 0.42% 1
NC 90.1% 9.0% 60.5% 52.8% 47.0% 43.6% 3.38% 49.5% 2.57% 1
ND 88.6% 7.4% 54.5% 45.6% 40.4% 35.5% 4.87% 34.6% -5.72%
OH 91.1% 10.1% 64.3% 57.4% 51.5% 48.7% 2.78% 1 54.0% 2.52% 1
OK 88.4% 7.1% 53.7% 44.7% 43.3% 34.4% 8.82% 33.8% -9.42%
OR 91.6% 10.6% 66.3% 59.7% 54.2% 51.3% 2.82% 1 52.2% -1.92% 1
PA 91.5% 10.6% 66.0% 59.4% 54.6% 50.9% 3.72% 55.1% 0.48% 1
RI 93.1% 12.3% 72.3% 66.9% 66.4% 59.4% 6.99% 62.1% -4.34%
SC 89.6% 8.5% 58.5% 50.4% 48.5% 40.9% 7.60% 45.8% -2.75% 1
SD 89.2% 8.0% 56.7% 48.2% 41.2% 38.4% 2.72% 1 35.9% -5.27%
TN 89.9% 8.8% 59.7% 51.9% 49.4% 42.5% 6.87% 43.2% -6.22%
TX 89.1% 7.9% 56.5% 48.1% 43.6% 38.2% 5.33% 42.0% -1.53% 1
UT 86.8% 5.4% 47.4% 37.2% 33.5% 26.0% 7.51% 28.1% -5.36%
VT 93.0% 12.2% 72.0% 66.5% 59.3% 58.9% 0.35% 1 66.5% 7.25%
VA 90.5% 9.4% 61.9% 54.5% 49.5% 45.5% 4.04% 49.8% 0.31% 1
WA 91.8% 10.9% 67.4% 61.1% 55.9% 52.8% 3.04% 56.8% 0.96% 1
WV 90.1% 9.0% 60.2% 52.5% 50.2% 43.2% 7.03% 40.2% -9.98%
WI 91.3% 10.3% 65.1% 58.3% 53.0% 49.7% 3.28% 52.1% -0.88% 1
WY 87.4% 6.0% 49.7% 39.9% 32.3% 29.1% 3.19% 32.6% 0.31% 1