TruthIsAll
06-14-2009, 08:43 AM
Approximating the 2004 True Popular and Electoral vote in 3 steps
1) Calculate total votes cast in each state for 2000:
Add 75% of uncounted ballots to Gore's recorded vote; 25% to Bush.
Deduct net stuffed ballots from the Bush total.
2) Determine 2000 voter turnout in 2004. Assume 5% mortality and 95% turnout.
Calculate Kerry, Bush, Other shares of new and returning voters for each state based
on the 12:22am National Exit Poll(before it was forced to match the recorded vote in the Final).
Note: According to the 12:22am NEP, Kerry won 57% of new voters (DNV 2000).
Returning voters: assumed equal to the 12:22am National Exit Poll shares.
New (DNV) voters: State DNV share = 57% + State share - National share
For example, Kerry's share of new voters in NY: 67% = 57%+ 58%- 48%
3) Calculate the TRUE popular and electoral vote by aggregating the adjusted state totals.
Let's first examine a few scenarios.
Sensitivity Analysis
1) Base case: 12:22am NEP shares
Gore 75% of uncounted; Kerry: 57% of DNV; 91% of Gore; 10% of returning Bush voters.
Result: Kerry 53.4%, 10 million vote margin; 398 EV.
Change to:
Gore: 55% of uncounted votes
Result: Kerry 52.6%; 8m margin; 363 EV
2) Worst case: Final NEP shares (fixed to match the vote).
Kerry: 54% of DNV; 90% of Gore; 8% of returning Bush voters.
Result: Kerry 52.1%; 6.7m margin; 360 EV
[code]
Share Kerry share Kerry share
of Kerry share of DNV Turnout Gore share of Uncounted
Bush 54% 57% 62% 55% 65% 75%
10% 52.8% 53.4% 54.5% 90% 53.0% 53.3% 53.6%
9% 52.5% 53.1% 54.1% 95% 52.8% 53.1% 53.4%
8% 52.1% 52.7% 53.7% 98% 52.6% 53.0% 53.3%
Margin Margin
10% 8,533 10,068 12,627 90% 8,985 9,788 10,592
9% 7,603 9,138 11,697 95% 8,371 9,220 10,068
8% 6,672 8,208 10,767 98% 8,004 8,879 9,754
Electoral vote Electoral Vote
10% 384 398 413 90% 368 390 398
9% 360 390 398 95% 368 390 398
8% 360 377 398 98% 363 390 398
2004 Vote
Recorded Kerry Bush Other Kerry Cast
122,294 59,028 62,041 1,224 48.27% 125,737
AL 1,883 694 1,176 13 36.8% 2,060
AK 313 111 191 11 35.5% 293
AZ 2,013 894 1,104 15 44.4% 2,239
AR 1,055 470 573 12 44.5% 1,140
CA 12,420 6,745 5,510 165 54.3% 12,807
CO 2,130 1,002 1,101 27 47.0% 2,097
CT 1,579 857 694 27 54.3% 1,524
DE 375 200 172 3 53.3% 385
DC 228 203 21 3 89.2% 270
FL 7,610 3,584 3,965 62 47.1% 7,372
GA 3,302 1,366 1,914 21 41.4% 3,332
HI 429 232 194 3 54.0% 433
ID 598 181 409 8 30.3% 585
IL 5,274 2,892 2,346 37 54.8% 5,672
IN 2,468 969 1,479 20 39.3% 2,598
IA 1,507 742 752 13 49.2% 1,522
KS 1,188 435 736 16 36.6% 1,188
KY 1,796 713 1,069 14 39.7% 1,930
LA 1,943 820 1,102 21 42.2% 2,067
ME 741 397 330 14 53.6% 736
MD 2,387 1,334 1,025 27 55.9% 2,413
MA 2,912 1,804 1,071 37 61.9% 3,085
MI 4,839 2,479 2,314 46 51.2% 4,818
MN 2,828 1,445 1,347 37 51.1% 2,887
MS 1,152 458 685 9 39.8% 1,263
MO 2,731 1,259 1,456 16 46.1% 2,815
MT 450 174 266 11 38.6% 482
NE 778 254 513 11 32.7% 793
NV 830 397 419 14 47.9% 871
NH 678 341 331 6 50.2% 677
NJ 3,612 1,911 1,670 30 52.9% 3,693
NM 756 371 377 8 49.0% 837
NY 7,391 4,314 2,963 114 58.4% 7,698
NC 3,501 1,526 1,961 14 43.6% 3,639
ND 313 111 197 5 35.5% 330
OH 5,628 2,741 2,860 27 48.7% 5,485
OK 1,464 504 960 0 34.4% 1,541
OR 1,837 943 867 27 51.3% 1,924
PA 5,770 2,938 2,794 38 50.9% 5,845
RI 437 260 169 8 59.4% 467
SC 1,618 662 938 18 40.9% 1,899
SD 388 149 233 6 38.4% 378
TN 2,437 1,036 1,384 16 42.5% 2,319
TX 7,411 2,833 4,527 51 38.2% 7,950
UT 928 241 664 23 26.0% 1,022
VT 312 184 121 7 58.9% 316
VA 3,198 1,455 1,717 27 45.5% 3,134
WA 2,859 1,510 1,305 44 52.8% 2,851
WV 756 327 424 6 43.2% 798
WI 2,997 1,490 1,478 29 49.7% 3,010
WY 243 71 168 5 29.1% 247
2000 adjusted vote
1) Add back 75% of uncounted ballots to Gore; 25% to Bush
Deduct 100% of net stuffed ballots (negative) from Bush
2000 Uncounted Recorded Adjusted
Recorded Cast 0.75 0.25 Gore Bush Other Gore Bush Other
105,417 110,825 Gore Bush 51,004 50,460 3,953 55,330 51,542 3,953
AL 1,673 1953 210 70 696 944 33 906 1,015 33
AK 286 270 (16) 79 167 39 79 152 39
AZ 1,534 1644 82 27 685 782 67 768 809 67
AR 922 936 11 4 423 473 26 433 476 26
CA 10,966 11489 392 131 5,861 4,567 537 6,254 4,698 537
CO 1,741 1633 (108) 738 884 119 738 775 119
CT 1,460 1332 (128) 816 561 82 816 434 82
DE 328 352 18 6 180 137 10 198 143 10
DC 202 267 49 16 172 18 12 221 34 12
FL 5,963 6006 32 11 2,912 2,913 138 2,944 2,924 138
GA 2,597 2827 173 58 1,116 1,420 61 1,289 1,477 61
HI 368 340 (28) 205 138 25 205 110 25
ID 502 500 (2) 139 337 26 139 335 26
IL 4,742 5030 216 72 2,589 2,019 134 2,805 2,091 134
IN 2,199 2564 274 91 902 1,246 51 1,176 1,337 51
IA 1,316 1353 28 9 639 634 43 667 644 43
KS 1,072 1148 57 19 399 622 51 456 641 51
KY 1,544 1645 76 25 639 872 33 715 898 33
LA 1,766 2030 198 66 792 928 45 991 994 45
ME 652 677 19 6 320 287 45 339 293 45
MD 2,025 2178 114 38 1,146 814 66 1,260 852 66
MA 2,703 2772 52 17 1,616 879 208 1,668 896 208
MI 4,233 4343 83 28 2,170 1,953 109 2,253 1,981 109
MN 2,439 2376 (63) 1,168 1,110 161 1,168 1,047 161
MS 995 1213 164 55 405 573 17 569 628 17
MO 2,360 2659 224 75 1,111 1,190 59 1,335 1,265 59
MT 411 409 (2) 137 240 34 137 238 34
NE 697 710 10 3 232 434 31 242 437 31
NV 609 641 24 8 280 302 27 304 310 27
NH 569 571 1 0 266 274 29 268 274 29
NJ 3,187 3374 140 47 1,789 1,284 114 1,929 1,331 114
NM 599 647 36 12 287 286 25 323 299 25
NY 6,823 7004 136 45 4,108 2,403 311 4,244 2,449 311
NC 2,911 2995 63 21 1,258 1,631 22 1,320 1,652 22
ND 288 313 19 6 95 175 18 114 181 18
OH 4,705 4823 88 29 2,186 2,351 168 2,274 2,381 168
OK 1,234 1431 148 49 474 744 16 622 794 16
OR 1,534 1529 (5) 720 714 100 720 709 100
PA 4,913 4988 56 19 2,486 2,281 146 2,542 2,300 146
RI 409 438 22 7 250 131 29 271 138 29
SC 1,384 1725 256 85 566 786 31 822 872 31
SD 316 311 (5) 119 191 7 119 185 7
TN 2,076 2183 80 27 982 1,062 33 1,062 1,089 33
TX 6,408 7005 448 149 2,434 3,800 174 2,882 3,949 174
UT 771 829 44 15 203 515 53 247 530 53
VT 294 290 (4) 149 120 26 149 115 26
VA 2,739 2962 167 56 1,217 1,437 85 1,384 1,493 85
WA 2,489 2527 29 10 1,248 1,109 132 1,276 1,118 132
WV 648 732 63 21 295 336 16 358 357 16
WI 2,599 2632 25 8 1,243 1,237 118 1,268 1,246 118
WY 218 219 0 0 60 148 10 61 148 10
2) Calculate 2000 voter turnout in 2004.
Assume 5% mortality and 95% turnout
Calculate Kerry, Bush and Other shares of new (DNV 2000) and returning voters based
on the 12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares.
95.0% 95% Kerry share 14565
Alive Return Gore Bush Other New Kerry Gore Bush Other New Total
105,417 100,146 49,935 46,516 3,568 25,591 56.9% 91.0% 10.0% 71.0% 57.0% 67,191
45,441 4,652 2,533 14,565 67,191
AL 1,858 1,765 818 916 29 295 45.6% 744 92 21 135 991
AK 257 244 71 137 35 49 44.2% 65 14 25 22 125
AZ 1,564 1,486 693 730 61 753 53.1% 631 73 43 400 1147
AR 890 846 391 430 24 294 53.3% 356 43 17 157 572
CA 10,928 10,382 5,644 4,240 485 2,425 63.0% 5136 424 344 1529 7433
CO 1,553 1,476 666 700 108 621 55.8% 606 70 77 346 1099
CT 1,267 1,204 736 391 74 320 63.0% 670 39 53 202 964
DE 335 318 179 129 9 67 62.1% 163 13 7 42 224
DC 254 241 199 31 11 29 97.9% 181 3 8 28 220
FL 5,713 5,427 2,657 2,638 125 1,945 55.8% 2418 264 88 1086 3856
GA 2,689 2,555 1,163 1,333 55 777 50.1% 1059 133 39 390 1620
HI 323 307 185 99 22 126 62.7% 169 10 16 79 273
ID 476 452 125 303 24 133 39.0% 114 30 17 52 213
IL 4,785 4,545 2,531 1,887 121 1,127 63.6% 2304 189 86 716 3294
IN 2,439 2,317 1,061 1,207 46 281 48.0% 965 121 33 135 1254
IA 1,287 1,223 602 581 39 299 58.0% 547 58 27 174 806
KS 1,092 1,037 412 579 46 151 45.4% 375 58 32 68 533
KY 1,565 1,486 645 810 30 444 48.4% 587 81 21 215 904
LA 1,931 1,834 894 897 41 233 50.9% 814 90 29 119 1051
ME 644 612 306 264 41 124 62.3% 278 26 29 77 411
MD 2,072 1,968 1,137 769 59 445 64.6% 1035 77 42 288 1442
MA 2,637 2,505 1,506 808 188 580 70.7% 1370 81 133 410 1994
MI 4,131 3,925 2,033 1,788 99 893 60.0% 1850 179 70 536 2635
MN 2,260 2,147 1,054 945 145 740 59.8% 959 94 103 443 1600
MS 1,154 1,096 513 567 15 167 48.5% 467 57 11 81 615
MO 2,529 2,403 1,205 1,141 53 412 54.8% 1097 114 38 226 1475
MT 389 370 124 215 30 112 47.3% 113 21 22 53 209
NE 675 642 218 394 28 151 41.4% 198 39 20 63 321
NV 610 579 274 279 25 292 56.6% 250 28 18 165 460
NH 543 516 242 247 26 161 59.0% 220 25 19 95 358
NJ 3,209 3,049 1,741 1,201 103 644 61.7% 1584 120 73 397 2175
NM 615 585 292 269 23 252 57.8% 265 27 16 146 454
NY 6,662 6,329 3,830 2,210 281 1,369 67.1% 3485 221 200 919 4825
NC 2,849 2,706 1,192 1,491 20 933 52.3% 1084 149 14 488 1736
ND 298 283 103 163 16 47 44.2% 93 16 12 21 142
OH 4,588 4,358 2,053 2,148 152 1,127 57.4% 1868 215 108 647 2838
OK 1,361 1,293 561 716 14 248 43.2% 511 72 10 107 699
OR 1,454 1,382 650 640 90 542 60.1% 592 64 64 326 1045
PA 4,745 4,507 2,294 2,076 132 1,338 59.7% 2088 208 94 798 3187
RI 417 396 245 124 26 71 68.2% 223 12 19 49 302
SC 1,641 1,559 742 787 28 340 49.6% 675 79 20 169 943
SD 296 281 107 167 6 97 47.2% 98 17 4 46 164
TN 2,076 1,973 958 983 29 346 51.3% 872 98 21 178 1169
TX 6,663 6,330 2,601 3,564 157 1,620 47.0% 2367 356 112 761 3595
UT 789 749 223 478 47 273 34.7% 203 48 34 95 379
VT 276 262 134 104 23 54 67.7% 122 10 16 37 186
VA 2,817 2,677 1,249 1,348 76 457 54.2% 1137 135 54 248 1574
WA 2,404 2,283 1,152 1,009 119 568 61.6% 1048 101 85 349 1583
WV 696 661 323 323 15 137 51.9% 294 32 10 71 408
WI 2,504 2,378 1,144 1,124 107 632 58.4% 1041 112 76 369 1599
WY 208 198 55 134 9 49 37.8% 50 13 6 19 88
Bush Share Other Share
Gore Bush Other New Total Gore Bush Other New Total
8.0% 90.0% 21.0% 41.0% 57,123 1.0% 0.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1,297
3,995 41,865 749 10,514 57,123 499 0 285 512 1,297
AL 65 824 6 155 1050 8 0 2 6 16
AK 6 123 7 26 163 1 0 3 1 5
AZ 55 657 13 338 1063 7 0 5 15 27
AR 31 387 5 132 555 4 0 2 6 12
CA 452 3816 102 848 5217 56 0 39 49 144
CO 53 630 23 262 968 7 0 9 12 28
CT 59 352 16 112 539 7 0 6 6 20
DE 14 116 2 24 157 2 0 1 1 4
DC 16 28 2 0 46 2 0 1 1 3
FL 213 2375 26 820 3434 27 0 10 39 75
GA 93 1200 12 372 1677 12 0 4 16 32
HI 15 89 5 44 153 2 0 2 3 6
ID 10 272 5 79 366 1 0 2 3 6
IL 203 1699 25 388 2315 25 0 10 23 57
IN 85 1086 10 141 1321 11 0 4 6 20
IA 48 523 8 120 699 6 0 3 6 15
KS 33 521 10 79 643 4 0 4 3 11
KY 52 729 6 220 1007 6 0 2 9 18
LA 72 807 9 109 997 9 0 3 5 17
ME 24 238 9 44 315 3 0 3 2 9
MD 91 692 12 148 944 11 0 5 9 25
MA 120 728 39 159 1046 15 0 15 12 42
MI 163 1609 21 340 2132 20 0 8 18 46
MN 84 850 30 282 1248 11 0 12 15 37
MS 41 510 3 83 637 5 0 1 3 10
MO 96 1027 11 178 1313 12 0 4 8 25
MT 10 193 6 57 267 1 0 2 2 6
NE 17 355 6 86 464 2 0 2 3 7
NV 22 251 5 121 399 3 0 2 6 11
NH 19 223 6 63 310 2 0 2 3 8
NJ 139 1081 22 234 1476 17 0 8 13 39
NM 23 242 5 101 372 3 0 2 5 10
NY 306 1989 59 423 2777 38 0 22 27 88
NC 95 1342 4 426 1868 12 0 2 19 32
ND 8 147 3 25 184 1 0 1 1 3
OH 164 1934 32 457 2587 21 0 12 23 55
OK 45 645 3 136 828 6 0 1 5 12
OR 52 576 19 206 852 7 0 7 11 25
PA 184 1868 28 513 2592 23 0 11 27 60
RI 20 112 6 21 158 2 0 2 1 6
SC 59 708 6 165 938 7 0 2 7 16
SD 9 151 1 49 210 1 0 0 2 3
TN 77 884 6 162 1129 10 0 2 7 19
TX 208 3208 33 827 4276 26 0 13 32 71
UT 18 430 10 173 631 2 0 4 5 11
VT 11 94 5 16 126 1 0 2 1 4
VA 100 1213 16 200 1529 12 0 6 9 28
WA 92 908 25 207 1232 12 0 10 11 32
WV 26 290 3 63 382 3 0 1 3 7
WI 92 1012 22 250 1376 11 0 9 13 33
WY 4 120 2 30 156 1 0 1 1 2
3) Calculate the True popular and electoral vote by summation of the state shares of new and returning voters.
14 True Vote Unadjusted Exit Poll 7 True Vote
Flip EV Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush WPE and Exit Poll
to Bush 398 53.44% 45.43% 1.03% 52.0% 47.0% 7.4% Flip to Bush
67,191 57,123 1.297 65,384 59,098
AL 0 48.1% 51.0% 0.8% 41.8 57.5 10.0
AK 0 42.8% 55.6% 1.5% 40.2 56.4 9.3
AZ 1 10 51.2% 47.5% 1.2% 44.5 54.7 0.3
AR 1 6 50.2% 48.7% 1.0% 45.2 53.7 1.3
CA 0 55 58.0% 40.7% 1.1% 60.1 38.6 11.6
CO 1 9 52.4% 46.2% 1.3% 50.1 48.6 6.1 Yes
CT 0 7 63.3% 35.3% 1.3% 62.3 35.9 16.0
DE 0 3 58.2% 40.7% 1.0% 61.3 37.8 15.9
DC 0 3 81.5% 17.1% 1.3% 90.6 7.9 2.8
FL 1 27 52.3% 46.6% 1.0% 51.0 48.2 7.8 Yes
GA 0 48.6% 50.3% 0.9% 42.0 57.3 1.3
HI 0 4 63.1% 35.4% 1.4% 58.1 41.2 8.2
ID 0 36.4% 62.5% 1.0% 32.3 66.4 4.0
IL 0 21 58.1% 40.8% 1.0% 56.6 42.7 3.5
IN 0 48.3% 50.9% 0.8% 40.4 58.8 2.2
IA 1 7 53.0% 45.9% 1.0% 50.7 48.4 3.0 Yes
KS 0 44.9% 54.1% 0.9% 37.2 61.5 1.1
KY 0 46.8% 52.2% 0.9% 39.9 59.4 0.4
LA 1 9 50.8% 48.2% 0.8% 43.5 55.4 2.6
ME 0 4 55.9% 42.8% 1.2% 55.6 42.6 4.0
MD 0 10 59.7% 39.1% 1.0% 59.6 39.3 7.3
MA 0 12 64.6% 33.9% 1.4% 65.8 32.9 7.7
MI 0 17 54.7% 44.3% 1.0% 54.4 44.6 6.4
MN 0 10 55.4% 43.2% 1.3% 55.7 43.0 9.2
MS 0 48.7% 50.4% 0.8% 49.4 49.8 18.5
MO 1 11 52.4% 46.6% 0.9% 49.0 50.4 5.8
MT 0 43.3% 55.3% 1.2% 37.3 60.4 (2.6)
NE 0 40.4% 58.5% 0.9% 37.0 61.5 8.7
NV 1 5 52.9% 45.9% 1.2% 52.8 45.5 9.9 Yes
NH 0 4 52.9% 45.8% 1.1% 57.2 41.9 14.0
NJ 0 15 58.9% 40.0% 1.0% 57.5 41.7 9.1
NM 1 5 54.3% 44.5% 1.2% 53.0 45.8 8.0 Yes
NY 0 31 62.7% 36.1% 1.1% 64.5 34.0 12.2
NC 0 47.7% 51.3% 0.9% 49.5 50.1 11.9
ND 0 43.1% 55.8% 1.0% 34.6 63.7 (1.7)
OH 1 20 51.7% 47.2% 1.0% 54.0 45.5 10.6 Yes
OK 0 45.4% 53.8% 0.8% 33.8 66.2 (1.2)
OR 0 7 54.3% 44.3% 1.3% 53.0 47.0 1.8
PA 0 21 54.5% 44.3% 1.0% 55.1 44.2 8.4
RI 0 4 64.7% 33.9% 1.3% 62.1 36.0 5.3
SC 1 8 49.6% 49.4% 0.9% 45.8 53.1 9.7
SD 0 43.5% 55.5% 0.9% 35.9 62.5 (5.1)
TN 1 11 50.4% 48.7% 0.8% 43.2 56.1 1.3
TX 0 45.2% 53.8% 0.9% 42.0 57.3 7.6
UT 0 37.1% 61.7% 1.1% 28.1 69.4 4.3
VT 0 3 58.8% 39.8% 1.3% 66.5 31.2 15.2
VA 1 13 50.2% 48.8% 0.9% 49.8 49.3 8.7 Yes
WA 0 11 55.5% 43.2% 1.1% 56.8 41.6 8.0
WV 1 5 51.1% 47.9% 0.9% 40.2 59.0 (5.9)
WI 0 10 53.1% 45.7% 1.1% 52.1 46.9 4.8
WY 0 35.8% 63.2% 0.9% 32.6 65.4 7.0
1) Calculate total votes cast in each state for 2000:
Add 75% of uncounted ballots to Gore's recorded vote; 25% to Bush.
Deduct net stuffed ballots from the Bush total.
2) Determine 2000 voter turnout in 2004. Assume 5% mortality and 95% turnout.
Calculate Kerry, Bush, Other shares of new and returning voters for each state based
on the 12:22am National Exit Poll(before it was forced to match the recorded vote in the Final).
Note: According to the 12:22am NEP, Kerry won 57% of new voters (DNV 2000).
Returning voters: assumed equal to the 12:22am National Exit Poll shares.
New (DNV) voters: State DNV share = 57% + State share - National share
For example, Kerry's share of new voters in NY: 67% = 57%+ 58%- 48%
3) Calculate the TRUE popular and electoral vote by aggregating the adjusted state totals.
Let's first examine a few scenarios.
Sensitivity Analysis
1) Base case: 12:22am NEP shares
Gore 75% of uncounted; Kerry: 57% of DNV; 91% of Gore; 10% of returning Bush voters.
Result: Kerry 53.4%, 10 million vote margin; 398 EV.
Change to:
Gore: 55% of uncounted votes
Result: Kerry 52.6%; 8m margin; 363 EV
2) Worst case: Final NEP shares (fixed to match the vote).
Kerry: 54% of DNV; 90% of Gore; 8% of returning Bush voters.
Result: Kerry 52.1%; 6.7m margin; 360 EV
[code]
Share Kerry share Kerry share
of Kerry share of DNV Turnout Gore share of Uncounted
Bush 54% 57% 62% 55% 65% 75%
10% 52.8% 53.4% 54.5% 90% 53.0% 53.3% 53.6%
9% 52.5% 53.1% 54.1% 95% 52.8% 53.1% 53.4%
8% 52.1% 52.7% 53.7% 98% 52.6% 53.0% 53.3%
Margin Margin
10% 8,533 10,068 12,627 90% 8,985 9,788 10,592
9% 7,603 9,138 11,697 95% 8,371 9,220 10,068
8% 6,672 8,208 10,767 98% 8,004 8,879 9,754
Electoral vote Electoral Vote
10% 384 398 413 90% 368 390 398
9% 360 390 398 95% 368 390 398
8% 360 377 398 98% 363 390 398
2004 Vote
Recorded Kerry Bush Other Kerry Cast
122,294 59,028 62,041 1,224 48.27% 125,737
AL 1,883 694 1,176 13 36.8% 2,060
AK 313 111 191 11 35.5% 293
AZ 2,013 894 1,104 15 44.4% 2,239
AR 1,055 470 573 12 44.5% 1,140
CA 12,420 6,745 5,510 165 54.3% 12,807
CO 2,130 1,002 1,101 27 47.0% 2,097
CT 1,579 857 694 27 54.3% 1,524
DE 375 200 172 3 53.3% 385
DC 228 203 21 3 89.2% 270
FL 7,610 3,584 3,965 62 47.1% 7,372
GA 3,302 1,366 1,914 21 41.4% 3,332
HI 429 232 194 3 54.0% 433
ID 598 181 409 8 30.3% 585
IL 5,274 2,892 2,346 37 54.8% 5,672
IN 2,468 969 1,479 20 39.3% 2,598
IA 1,507 742 752 13 49.2% 1,522
KS 1,188 435 736 16 36.6% 1,188
KY 1,796 713 1,069 14 39.7% 1,930
LA 1,943 820 1,102 21 42.2% 2,067
ME 741 397 330 14 53.6% 736
MD 2,387 1,334 1,025 27 55.9% 2,413
MA 2,912 1,804 1,071 37 61.9% 3,085
MI 4,839 2,479 2,314 46 51.2% 4,818
MN 2,828 1,445 1,347 37 51.1% 2,887
MS 1,152 458 685 9 39.8% 1,263
MO 2,731 1,259 1,456 16 46.1% 2,815
MT 450 174 266 11 38.6% 482
NE 778 254 513 11 32.7% 793
NV 830 397 419 14 47.9% 871
NH 678 341 331 6 50.2% 677
NJ 3,612 1,911 1,670 30 52.9% 3,693
NM 756 371 377 8 49.0% 837
NY 7,391 4,314 2,963 114 58.4% 7,698
NC 3,501 1,526 1,961 14 43.6% 3,639
ND 313 111 197 5 35.5% 330
OH 5,628 2,741 2,860 27 48.7% 5,485
OK 1,464 504 960 0 34.4% 1,541
OR 1,837 943 867 27 51.3% 1,924
PA 5,770 2,938 2,794 38 50.9% 5,845
RI 437 260 169 8 59.4% 467
SC 1,618 662 938 18 40.9% 1,899
SD 388 149 233 6 38.4% 378
TN 2,437 1,036 1,384 16 42.5% 2,319
TX 7,411 2,833 4,527 51 38.2% 7,950
UT 928 241 664 23 26.0% 1,022
VT 312 184 121 7 58.9% 316
VA 3,198 1,455 1,717 27 45.5% 3,134
WA 2,859 1,510 1,305 44 52.8% 2,851
WV 756 327 424 6 43.2% 798
WI 2,997 1,490 1,478 29 49.7% 3,010
WY 243 71 168 5 29.1% 247
2000 adjusted vote
1) Add back 75% of uncounted ballots to Gore; 25% to Bush
Deduct 100% of net stuffed ballots (negative) from Bush
2000 Uncounted Recorded Adjusted
Recorded Cast 0.75 0.25 Gore Bush Other Gore Bush Other
105,417 110,825 Gore Bush 51,004 50,460 3,953 55,330 51,542 3,953
AL 1,673 1953 210 70 696 944 33 906 1,015 33
AK 286 270 (16) 79 167 39 79 152 39
AZ 1,534 1644 82 27 685 782 67 768 809 67
AR 922 936 11 4 423 473 26 433 476 26
CA 10,966 11489 392 131 5,861 4,567 537 6,254 4,698 537
CO 1,741 1633 (108) 738 884 119 738 775 119
CT 1,460 1332 (128) 816 561 82 816 434 82
DE 328 352 18 6 180 137 10 198 143 10
DC 202 267 49 16 172 18 12 221 34 12
FL 5,963 6006 32 11 2,912 2,913 138 2,944 2,924 138
GA 2,597 2827 173 58 1,116 1,420 61 1,289 1,477 61
HI 368 340 (28) 205 138 25 205 110 25
ID 502 500 (2) 139 337 26 139 335 26
IL 4,742 5030 216 72 2,589 2,019 134 2,805 2,091 134
IN 2,199 2564 274 91 902 1,246 51 1,176 1,337 51
IA 1,316 1353 28 9 639 634 43 667 644 43
KS 1,072 1148 57 19 399 622 51 456 641 51
KY 1,544 1645 76 25 639 872 33 715 898 33
LA 1,766 2030 198 66 792 928 45 991 994 45
ME 652 677 19 6 320 287 45 339 293 45
MD 2,025 2178 114 38 1,146 814 66 1,260 852 66
MA 2,703 2772 52 17 1,616 879 208 1,668 896 208
MI 4,233 4343 83 28 2,170 1,953 109 2,253 1,981 109
MN 2,439 2376 (63) 1,168 1,110 161 1,168 1,047 161
MS 995 1213 164 55 405 573 17 569 628 17
MO 2,360 2659 224 75 1,111 1,190 59 1,335 1,265 59
MT 411 409 (2) 137 240 34 137 238 34
NE 697 710 10 3 232 434 31 242 437 31
NV 609 641 24 8 280 302 27 304 310 27
NH 569 571 1 0 266 274 29 268 274 29
NJ 3,187 3374 140 47 1,789 1,284 114 1,929 1,331 114
NM 599 647 36 12 287 286 25 323 299 25
NY 6,823 7004 136 45 4,108 2,403 311 4,244 2,449 311
NC 2,911 2995 63 21 1,258 1,631 22 1,320 1,652 22
ND 288 313 19 6 95 175 18 114 181 18
OH 4,705 4823 88 29 2,186 2,351 168 2,274 2,381 168
OK 1,234 1431 148 49 474 744 16 622 794 16
OR 1,534 1529 (5) 720 714 100 720 709 100
PA 4,913 4988 56 19 2,486 2,281 146 2,542 2,300 146
RI 409 438 22 7 250 131 29 271 138 29
SC 1,384 1725 256 85 566 786 31 822 872 31
SD 316 311 (5) 119 191 7 119 185 7
TN 2,076 2183 80 27 982 1,062 33 1,062 1,089 33
TX 6,408 7005 448 149 2,434 3,800 174 2,882 3,949 174
UT 771 829 44 15 203 515 53 247 530 53
VT 294 290 (4) 149 120 26 149 115 26
VA 2,739 2962 167 56 1,217 1,437 85 1,384 1,493 85
WA 2,489 2527 29 10 1,248 1,109 132 1,276 1,118 132
WV 648 732 63 21 295 336 16 358 357 16
WI 2,599 2632 25 8 1,243 1,237 118 1,268 1,246 118
WY 218 219 0 0 60 148 10 61 148 10
2) Calculate 2000 voter turnout in 2004.
Assume 5% mortality and 95% turnout
Calculate Kerry, Bush and Other shares of new (DNV 2000) and returning voters based
on the 12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares.
95.0% 95% Kerry share 14565
Alive Return Gore Bush Other New Kerry Gore Bush Other New Total
105,417 100,146 49,935 46,516 3,568 25,591 56.9% 91.0% 10.0% 71.0% 57.0% 67,191
45,441 4,652 2,533 14,565 67,191
AL 1,858 1,765 818 916 29 295 45.6% 744 92 21 135 991
AK 257 244 71 137 35 49 44.2% 65 14 25 22 125
AZ 1,564 1,486 693 730 61 753 53.1% 631 73 43 400 1147
AR 890 846 391 430 24 294 53.3% 356 43 17 157 572
CA 10,928 10,382 5,644 4,240 485 2,425 63.0% 5136 424 344 1529 7433
CO 1,553 1,476 666 700 108 621 55.8% 606 70 77 346 1099
CT 1,267 1,204 736 391 74 320 63.0% 670 39 53 202 964
DE 335 318 179 129 9 67 62.1% 163 13 7 42 224
DC 254 241 199 31 11 29 97.9% 181 3 8 28 220
FL 5,713 5,427 2,657 2,638 125 1,945 55.8% 2418 264 88 1086 3856
GA 2,689 2,555 1,163 1,333 55 777 50.1% 1059 133 39 390 1620
HI 323 307 185 99 22 126 62.7% 169 10 16 79 273
ID 476 452 125 303 24 133 39.0% 114 30 17 52 213
IL 4,785 4,545 2,531 1,887 121 1,127 63.6% 2304 189 86 716 3294
IN 2,439 2,317 1,061 1,207 46 281 48.0% 965 121 33 135 1254
IA 1,287 1,223 602 581 39 299 58.0% 547 58 27 174 806
KS 1,092 1,037 412 579 46 151 45.4% 375 58 32 68 533
KY 1,565 1,486 645 810 30 444 48.4% 587 81 21 215 904
LA 1,931 1,834 894 897 41 233 50.9% 814 90 29 119 1051
ME 644 612 306 264 41 124 62.3% 278 26 29 77 411
MD 2,072 1,968 1,137 769 59 445 64.6% 1035 77 42 288 1442
MA 2,637 2,505 1,506 808 188 580 70.7% 1370 81 133 410 1994
MI 4,131 3,925 2,033 1,788 99 893 60.0% 1850 179 70 536 2635
MN 2,260 2,147 1,054 945 145 740 59.8% 959 94 103 443 1600
MS 1,154 1,096 513 567 15 167 48.5% 467 57 11 81 615
MO 2,529 2,403 1,205 1,141 53 412 54.8% 1097 114 38 226 1475
MT 389 370 124 215 30 112 47.3% 113 21 22 53 209
NE 675 642 218 394 28 151 41.4% 198 39 20 63 321
NV 610 579 274 279 25 292 56.6% 250 28 18 165 460
NH 543 516 242 247 26 161 59.0% 220 25 19 95 358
NJ 3,209 3,049 1,741 1,201 103 644 61.7% 1584 120 73 397 2175
NM 615 585 292 269 23 252 57.8% 265 27 16 146 454
NY 6,662 6,329 3,830 2,210 281 1,369 67.1% 3485 221 200 919 4825
NC 2,849 2,706 1,192 1,491 20 933 52.3% 1084 149 14 488 1736
ND 298 283 103 163 16 47 44.2% 93 16 12 21 142
OH 4,588 4,358 2,053 2,148 152 1,127 57.4% 1868 215 108 647 2838
OK 1,361 1,293 561 716 14 248 43.2% 511 72 10 107 699
OR 1,454 1,382 650 640 90 542 60.1% 592 64 64 326 1045
PA 4,745 4,507 2,294 2,076 132 1,338 59.7% 2088 208 94 798 3187
RI 417 396 245 124 26 71 68.2% 223 12 19 49 302
SC 1,641 1,559 742 787 28 340 49.6% 675 79 20 169 943
SD 296 281 107 167 6 97 47.2% 98 17 4 46 164
TN 2,076 1,973 958 983 29 346 51.3% 872 98 21 178 1169
TX 6,663 6,330 2,601 3,564 157 1,620 47.0% 2367 356 112 761 3595
UT 789 749 223 478 47 273 34.7% 203 48 34 95 379
VT 276 262 134 104 23 54 67.7% 122 10 16 37 186
VA 2,817 2,677 1,249 1,348 76 457 54.2% 1137 135 54 248 1574
WA 2,404 2,283 1,152 1,009 119 568 61.6% 1048 101 85 349 1583
WV 696 661 323 323 15 137 51.9% 294 32 10 71 408
WI 2,504 2,378 1,144 1,124 107 632 58.4% 1041 112 76 369 1599
WY 208 198 55 134 9 49 37.8% 50 13 6 19 88
Bush Share Other Share
Gore Bush Other New Total Gore Bush Other New Total
8.0% 90.0% 21.0% 41.0% 57,123 1.0% 0.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1,297
3,995 41,865 749 10,514 57,123 499 0 285 512 1,297
AL 65 824 6 155 1050 8 0 2 6 16
AK 6 123 7 26 163 1 0 3 1 5
AZ 55 657 13 338 1063 7 0 5 15 27
AR 31 387 5 132 555 4 0 2 6 12
CA 452 3816 102 848 5217 56 0 39 49 144
CO 53 630 23 262 968 7 0 9 12 28
CT 59 352 16 112 539 7 0 6 6 20
DE 14 116 2 24 157 2 0 1 1 4
DC 16 28 2 0 46 2 0 1 1 3
FL 213 2375 26 820 3434 27 0 10 39 75
GA 93 1200 12 372 1677 12 0 4 16 32
HI 15 89 5 44 153 2 0 2 3 6
ID 10 272 5 79 366 1 0 2 3 6
IL 203 1699 25 388 2315 25 0 10 23 57
IN 85 1086 10 141 1321 11 0 4 6 20
IA 48 523 8 120 699 6 0 3 6 15
KS 33 521 10 79 643 4 0 4 3 11
KY 52 729 6 220 1007 6 0 2 9 18
LA 72 807 9 109 997 9 0 3 5 17
ME 24 238 9 44 315 3 0 3 2 9
MD 91 692 12 148 944 11 0 5 9 25
MA 120 728 39 159 1046 15 0 15 12 42
MI 163 1609 21 340 2132 20 0 8 18 46
MN 84 850 30 282 1248 11 0 12 15 37
MS 41 510 3 83 637 5 0 1 3 10
MO 96 1027 11 178 1313 12 0 4 8 25
MT 10 193 6 57 267 1 0 2 2 6
NE 17 355 6 86 464 2 0 2 3 7
NV 22 251 5 121 399 3 0 2 6 11
NH 19 223 6 63 310 2 0 2 3 8
NJ 139 1081 22 234 1476 17 0 8 13 39
NM 23 242 5 101 372 3 0 2 5 10
NY 306 1989 59 423 2777 38 0 22 27 88
NC 95 1342 4 426 1868 12 0 2 19 32
ND 8 147 3 25 184 1 0 1 1 3
OH 164 1934 32 457 2587 21 0 12 23 55
OK 45 645 3 136 828 6 0 1 5 12
OR 52 576 19 206 852 7 0 7 11 25
PA 184 1868 28 513 2592 23 0 11 27 60
RI 20 112 6 21 158 2 0 2 1 6
SC 59 708 6 165 938 7 0 2 7 16
SD 9 151 1 49 210 1 0 0 2 3
TN 77 884 6 162 1129 10 0 2 7 19
TX 208 3208 33 827 4276 26 0 13 32 71
UT 18 430 10 173 631 2 0 4 5 11
VT 11 94 5 16 126 1 0 2 1 4
VA 100 1213 16 200 1529 12 0 6 9 28
WA 92 908 25 207 1232 12 0 10 11 32
WV 26 290 3 63 382 3 0 1 3 7
WI 92 1012 22 250 1376 11 0 9 13 33
WY 4 120 2 30 156 1 0 1 1 2
3) Calculate the True popular and electoral vote by summation of the state shares of new and returning voters.
14 True Vote Unadjusted Exit Poll 7 True Vote
Flip EV Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush WPE and Exit Poll
to Bush 398 53.44% 45.43% 1.03% 52.0% 47.0% 7.4% Flip to Bush
67,191 57,123 1.297 65,384 59,098
AL 0 48.1% 51.0% 0.8% 41.8 57.5 10.0
AK 0 42.8% 55.6% 1.5% 40.2 56.4 9.3
AZ 1 10 51.2% 47.5% 1.2% 44.5 54.7 0.3
AR 1 6 50.2% 48.7% 1.0% 45.2 53.7 1.3
CA 0 55 58.0% 40.7% 1.1% 60.1 38.6 11.6
CO 1 9 52.4% 46.2% 1.3% 50.1 48.6 6.1 Yes
CT 0 7 63.3% 35.3% 1.3% 62.3 35.9 16.0
DE 0 3 58.2% 40.7% 1.0% 61.3 37.8 15.9
DC 0 3 81.5% 17.1% 1.3% 90.6 7.9 2.8
FL 1 27 52.3% 46.6% 1.0% 51.0 48.2 7.8 Yes
GA 0 48.6% 50.3% 0.9% 42.0 57.3 1.3
HI 0 4 63.1% 35.4% 1.4% 58.1 41.2 8.2
ID 0 36.4% 62.5% 1.0% 32.3 66.4 4.0
IL 0 21 58.1% 40.8% 1.0% 56.6 42.7 3.5
IN 0 48.3% 50.9% 0.8% 40.4 58.8 2.2
IA 1 7 53.0% 45.9% 1.0% 50.7 48.4 3.0 Yes
KS 0 44.9% 54.1% 0.9% 37.2 61.5 1.1
KY 0 46.8% 52.2% 0.9% 39.9 59.4 0.4
LA 1 9 50.8% 48.2% 0.8% 43.5 55.4 2.6
ME 0 4 55.9% 42.8% 1.2% 55.6 42.6 4.0
MD 0 10 59.7% 39.1% 1.0% 59.6 39.3 7.3
MA 0 12 64.6% 33.9% 1.4% 65.8 32.9 7.7
MI 0 17 54.7% 44.3% 1.0% 54.4 44.6 6.4
MN 0 10 55.4% 43.2% 1.3% 55.7 43.0 9.2
MS 0 48.7% 50.4% 0.8% 49.4 49.8 18.5
MO 1 11 52.4% 46.6% 0.9% 49.0 50.4 5.8
MT 0 43.3% 55.3% 1.2% 37.3 60.4 (2.6)
NE 0 40.4% 58.5% 0.9% 37.0 61.5 8.7
NV 1 5 52.9% 45.9% 1.2% 52.8 45.5 9.9 Yes
NH 0 4 52.9% 45.8% 1.1% 57.2 41.9 14.0
NJ 0 15 58.9% 40.0% 1.0% 57.5 41.7 9.1
NM 1 5 54.3% 44.5% 1.2% 53.0 45.8 8.0 Yes
NY 0 31 62.7% 36.1% 1.1% 64.5 34.0 12.2
NC 0 47.7% 51.3% 0.9% 49.5 50.1 11.9
ND 0 43.1% 55.8% 1.0% 34.6 63.7 (1.7)
OH 1 20 51.7% 47.2% 1.0% 54.0 45.5 10.6 Yes
OK 0 45.4% 53.8% 0.8% 33.8 66.2 (1.2)
OR 0 7 54.3% 44.3% 1.3% 53.0 47.0 1.8
PA 0 21 54.5% 44.3% 1.0% 55.1 44.2 8.4
RI 0 4 64.7% 33.9% 1.3% 62.1 36.0 5.3
SC 1 8 49.6% 49.4% 0.9% 45.8 53.1 9.7
SD 0 43.5% 55.5% 0.9% 35.9 62.5 (5.1)
TN 1 11 50.4% 48.7% 0.8% 43.2 56.1 1.3
TX 0 45.2% 53.8% 0.9% 42.0 57.3 7.6
UT 0 37.1% 61.7% 1.1% 28.1 69.4 4.3
VT 0 3 58.8% 39.8% 1.3% 66.5 31.2 15.2
VA 1 13 50.2% 48.8% 0.9% 49.8 49.3 8.7 Yes
WA 0 11 55.5% 43.2% 1.1% 56.8 41.6 8.0
WV 1 5 51.1% 47.9% 0.9% 40.2 59.0 (5.9)
WI 0 10 53.1% 45.7% 1.1% 52.1 46.9 4.8
WY 0 35.8% 63.2% 0.9% 32.6 65.4 7.0