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View Full Version : Election Model FINAL: Obama 53.1-44.9%; EV: 365.3 (expected); Monte Carlo: 365.8 (mean), 367 (median)


TruthIsAll
11-03-2008, 12:56 PM
2008 Election Model
A Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation

Updated: Nov. 3, 2008

TruthIsAll

FINAL PROJECTION: Obama wins by 76-64m votes; Monte Carlo EV mean:365.8, median:367, expected (theoretical):365.3; 53-45% margin.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm

The Election Model (EM) assumes that a fraud-free election is held today – and that current polls reflect the true vote. The model projects that Obama will win the Electoral vote by 367-171 and the True Vote by 76-64m. The final projected vote share is Obama 53.1- McCain 44.9%- Other 2.0%.

The Monte Carlo Simulation average EV (365.8) matched the theoretical expected EV (365.3), thus illustrating the Law of Large Numbers (LLN): 5000 simulated election trials were required for the MEAN EV to CONVERGE to the THEORETICAL EV (the simulation is in the “long run”). It is computational overkill to perform a meta analysis requiring the calculation of millions of EV combination scenarios in order to calculate the win probabilities.

The state poll aggregate vote share matched the national average tracking poll to within 0.2%.

In May, the 2008 Election Calculator model (see below) projected that Obama would win 54.1%. This model is based on returning 2004 voters and estimated vote shares. It confirms the Election Model (and vice-versa).

The average of recent state polls is entered in the database. The model base case assumes that 60% of the undecided voters will break to Obama. The undecided vote allocation (UVA) is based on the assumption that Obama is the challenger and McCain is running for Bush’s third term (GWB is not the most popular of incumbents).

The EM base case allocates a conservative 60% of the undecided vote to Obama; most pollsters typically use 70-90%, depending on the incumbent’s approval rating. Bush is at 22% and McCain 45%.

The model projects five vote share scenarios of undecided voter allocations (UVA) ranging from 40-90%. Obama won the base case scenario with an average 365.8 EV. The median and mode were 367. Even in the worst-case 40% UVA scenario Obama won all 5000 election trials.

Obama exceeded 360 EV in 3333 of 5000 Monte Carlo election trial simulations, so he has a 66.7% probability of winning at least 360 EV. The Monte Carlo simulation is displayed in this Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency chart. Note that ALL 5000
election trials are to the right of the 270 mark; therefore Obama’s win probability is 100%.

The 2008 Election Calculator Model confirms the 2004 and 2008 Election Model(and vice-versa). In May 2008, the 2008 Election Calculator projected that Obama would win the True Vote by 71-59m.

On Nov.3, 2008 the following test was performed:
The 12:22am 2004 NEP vote shares were input to the 2008 EC. In the 2008 EM, 75% UVA and 3rd party 1% share were input to match 2004 EC assumptions.

The resulting 2008 EC projection matched the 2008 Election Model (to within 0.3%). Therefore, the EC 2004 vote shares and weighting mix must be fairly accurate.

Given a 75% UVA and 1% to Other, the EC projects Obama will win by 78.3-63.8m, assuming a fraud-free election. Note that the base case EM is 60% UVA and 2% Other.




Estimated vote share
2004Turnout Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - 17.2 13.1% 59% 40% 1%
Kerry 95% 60.5 46.2% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 95% 51.6 39.4% 11% 88% 1%
Other 95% 1.6 1.2% 70% 11% 19%

Total 113.7 130.9 100% 54.1% 44.7% 1.2%
130.9 70.8 58.5 1.6


2008 Election Calculator

12:22am NEP vote share
2004Turnout Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - 29.9 20.8% 57% 41% 2%
Kerry 95% 60.6 42.2% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 51.6 35.9% 10% 90% 0%
Other 95% 1.6 1.1% 64% 17% 19%

Total 113.7 143.7 100% 54.5% 44.4% 1.1%
75% UVA 143.7 78.3 63.8 1.5


2008 Election Model (75% UVA)
54.3% 44.7% 1.0%
78.0 64.3 1.4

2008 Election Model (60% UVA)
53.1% 44.9% 2.0%
143.7 75.9 64.2 2.9





Projected Vote Shares, Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities

There are many electoral vote forecasting models.
The following Monte Carlo models gave a 100% Obama win probability.

DeSart and Holbrook
The Oct. 16 model run projected that Obama would win 52.85% of the national
2-party vote, 354-184 EV with a 99.99% win probability.

University of Illinois
http://election08.cs.uiuc.edu/
The simulation model was developed by computer science and political science
students.

270towin
An interactive model of 1000 Monte Carlo election trials.
http://www.270towin.com/simulation/

Franklin & Marshall College
Calculates a 99.98% probability that Sen. Barack Obama will win.
But executing 50 million election trials is extreme overkill.
Only 5000 are necessary.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/31/simulation_shows_obama_will_win.html

Electoral-vote.com and RealClearPolitics assign the full electoral vote to
the state poll leader regardless of the spread; they avoid using state win
probabilities in calculating the EV and do not allocate undecided voters.
Therefore, if the polls are tied or McCain slightly ahead in swing states,
their EV totals understate the EM electotoral vote projection for Obama.
The discrepancy in win probabilities between the Election Model (EM)
and fivethirtyeight.com (538) is due to differences in methodology.

1) 538 attempts to forecasts the Election Day result;
EM assumes the election is held today.
2) 538 weights state poll projections based on pollster rankings and many other factors;
EM does not rank pollsters.

Ranking pollsters based on prior performance is not just overkill; it introduces
a built-in, counter-intuitive bias. For example, the final Rasmussen 2004 poll
was quite accurate in projecting the recorded vote. But since the election
was rigged and the recorded vote was not the true vote, should he get a
high rating? If Rasmussen had included a fraud component in his polling model,
he would have been correct. On the other hand, Zogby projected that Kerry would
win - and he won the True Vote. But because the election was stolen, Zogby gets
a bad rap. Go figure. In 2000 (before rigged machines were institutionalized by
HAVA) Zogby correctly called the recorded vote while Rasmussen was way off.

The 538 site is very well done with lots of polling information. But it is my
firm belief that their model suffers from complexity overkill and feature
creep. The First Law of Analytical Model Building is KISS: Keep It Simple
Stupid. My opinion is based on 30 years experience as a quantitative analyst
and model builder/programmer involved scientific, engineering and financial
applications with several advanced math degrees.


Aggregate state poll trend
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_12777_image001.gif

National 5-poll moving average projection
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_30415_image001.gif

Aggregate State vs. National projection trend
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_37_image001.gif

Battleground state polls and projections
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_411_image001.gif

Battleground state win probabilities
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_1404_image001.gif

Electoral vote and win probability trend
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_29371_image001.gif

Electoral vote and projected vote share trend
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_30624_image001.gif

Undecided voter allocation impact on win probability
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_32191_image001.gif

Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_30550_image001.gif

Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_3523_image001.gif
TruthIsAll
11-03-2008, 10:17 PM
[!-- 11/03 FINAL ELECTION MODEL (TIA): OBAMA 367 EV; State-54.3% Natl-54.1%; MAY EC MODEL PROJECTED 54.1% --]
[div style="width: 110em;max-width: 114em"]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;padding-left:15px;width: 32.5em;max-width: 32.5em;font-weight:bold;border-top: 7pt solid black"]
[link:tinyurl.com/3twe4v|2008 ELECTION MODEL]
AMonte CarloElectoralVoteSimulation
[!- -]
[!- -]
[div style="font-family: Arial,Tahoma,Trebuchet MS;font-size:14.0pt"][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;font-family: Arial, Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif';font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.0;font-weight:500;font-style:italic"]Updated: Octmber 3
[/quote][div style="clear:left;margin-left: 1.5em;font-size: 10px;color:gray"]Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update[/quote][div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 32.5em;max-width: 32.5em;font-family: Arial,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif';font-size:13px;font-weight:600;line-height:1.51;border-right: 1px solid gray"]
[li style="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,font-size:13px"][link:tinyurl.com/6225jb|Chart]State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend
[li style="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,font-size:13px"][link:tinyurl.com/5cwkmz|Chart]National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection
[li style="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,font-size:13px"][link:tinyurl.com/5t5vdq|Chart]State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends
[li style="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,font-size:13px"][link:tinyurl.com/57degm|Chart]Battleground-State Polls
[li style="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,font-size:13px"][link:tinyurl.com/5vdj63|Chart]Battleground-State Win Probability
[li style="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,font-size:13px"][link:tinyurl.com/64p9t4|Chart]Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency
[li style="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,font-size:13px"][link:tinyurl.com/594llh|Chart]Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend
[li style="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,font-size:13px"][link:tinyurl.com/5el3zg|Chart]Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend
[li style="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,font-size:13px"][link:tinyurl.com/64zu8b|Chart]Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability
[li style="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,font-size:13px"][link:tinyurl.com/5kz7rx|Chart]Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials[div align="center" style="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,Trebuchet MS,Tahoma;font-size:13px;font-style:normal"]2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer[/quote][li atyle="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,Trebuchet MS,Tahoma;font-size:13px;font-style:normal;font-size: 13px"][link:tinyurl.com/6ppqzm|Uncounted&Switched Votes]
[li style="margin-left: 16px;list-style-position: outside;list-style-type: none;font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,Trebuchet MS,Tahoma;font-size:13px;font-style:normal"][link:tinyurl.com/6xuzcb|Chart]Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share
[li style="margin-left: 16px;list-style-position: outside;list-style-type: none;font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,Trebuchet MS,Tahoma;font-size:13px;font-style:normal"][link:tinyurl.com/5tpard|Chart]Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote[div style="clear:left;padding-line-height: 1.0em"][/quote][div align="center" style="padding-top:3px;padding-bottom: 3px"][link:tinyurl.com/6ax55w|“I’m glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list.”]—Sancho[/quote][/quote][/quote][div style="margin: 0em"][div style="float:left;width: 20px;border-top: 7pt solid black"][/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;margin-left: 0px;width: 63em;max-width: 63em;border-top: 7pt solid black;border-right: 1px solid black"][div align="left" style="margin-left: 0em;color:black; font-size:18px;font-family: Arial,Trebuchet MS,Microsoft Sans Serif,Tahoma"][div style="font-style:normal;font-family: Arial,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.5"][div align="left" style="font-family: Arial,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.3;padding-top: 16px;margin-top: -16px"][div style="width: 88px;min-width: 88px;float:left;padding-left: 0px" align="left"]This[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left;padding-left: 0px; margin-left: 0px" align="center"]State[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]National[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]State[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]National[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left;background:#BEFFFF;padding-right: 1px" align="right"]Monte Carlo[/quote][div style="width: 6.0em;float:left;background:#BEFFFF;padding-left: 6px" align="left"]Simulation[/quote][/span]
[div style="width: 88px;clear:left;float:left;padding-left:0px" align="left"]Update[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]Poll[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]5-Poll[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]2-party[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]2-party[/quote][div style="width: 14em;float:left" align="center"]Expected[/quote]
[div style="width: 88px;clear:left;float:left;padding-left:0px" align="left"]11/03/2008[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]Aggregate[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]Average[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]Projection[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]Projection[/quote][div style="width: 14em;float:left" align="center"]Electoral Vote[/quote][/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 88px;max-width: 88px;margin-left: 0em;padding-left: 0px;border-top: 1px black solid"]Obama
McCain[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"]51.3 (53.94)
43.8 (46.06)[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"]51.1 (53.79)
43.9 (46.21)[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"]54.28
45.7[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"]54.14
45.9[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 14em;border: 1px solid black;border-left: 0px solid red"] 365.3
172.7 [/quote][/quote]
[/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;margin-top: 1.5em;width: 73em;mix-width: 73em;font-family: Arial,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif';font-size:11px;font-weight:bold"][div align="center" style="clear:left;font-size: 15px"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-top: 2px solid black"]15-Poll[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;border-top: 2px solid black"]End[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4.5em;border-top: 2px solid black"]Sample[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;border-top: 2px solid black"]Poll[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 15.9em;max-width:15.6em;background:#E2DDB5;border: 2px solid black"]NATIONAL MODEL[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 1.0em;max-width: 1.0em;color:blue;border-top: 2px black solid"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 17.0em;background:#BEFFFF;border-top: 2px solid black"]PreUndecided Voter Allocation[br]5-Poll Mov Avg[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 1em;color:blue;border-top: 2px black solid"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 17em;background:#BEFFFF;border-top: 2px solid black"]2-Party Projection(60% UVA)[br]5-Poll Mov Avg[/quote][div style="line-height: 1.57"]
[div align="center" style="margin: 0em;clear:left;float:left;width: 8em"]Trend

Research2k
Gallup
Zogby
Hotline/FD
Rasmussen

ABC/WP
Battleground
NBC/WSJ
CNN
Pew

CBS
Marist
FOX News
Ipsos
Pew

Registered V
vsLikely V
Poll Averages

[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em"]Date

11/02
11/02
11/02
11/02
11/02

11/02
10/30
11/02
11/01
11/01

10/31
10/29
10/29
10/27
10/26

[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4.5em"]Size

1100 LV
2847 RV
1201 LV
882 LV
3000 LV

2446 RV
1000 LV
1011 LV
1017 LV
2587 RV

1005 LV
543 LV
924 LV
831 LV
1325 RV
[b]
RV avg
LV avg
Total
2-party
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em"]MoE

2.95%
1.84%
2.83%
3.30%
1.79%

1.98%
3.10%
3.08%
3.07%
1.93%

3.09%
4.21%
3.22%
3.40%
2.69%
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;color:blue"]Obama

51
52
51
50
51

54
49
51
51
49

54
50
47
50
52

51.75
50.45
50.80
54.20
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;color:maroon; "]McCain

44
41
44
45
46

42
45
43
43
42

41
43
44
45
36

40.25
43.91
42.93
45.80
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;color:black; "]Other

5
7
5
5
3

4
6
6
6
9

5
7
9
5
12

8.00
5.64
6.27
0.00
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em"]Spread

7
11
7
5
5

12
4
8
8
7

13
7
3
5
16

11.50
6.55
7.87
8.39
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 1em;color:blue"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;color:blue"]Obama

51.1
51.1
51.0
50.7
51.3

51.1
50.1
50.3
50.4
50.7

51.1
50.4
50.9
51.3
51.6
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;color:maroon"]McCain

43.9
43.7
44.0
43.7
43.1

42.7
43.0
43.0
42.0
41.7

41.3
41.1
40.6
40.3
39.9
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em"]Spread

7.3
7.4
7.0
7.0
8.1

8.4
7.1
7.3
8.4
9.0

9.9
9.3
10.3
11.0
11.7[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]Win Prob

100.0
100.0
100.0
99.8
99.2

100.0
96.6
100.0
99.9
100.0

99.9
92.6
98.6
100.0
100.0
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 1em;color:black"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;color:blue"]Obama

54.1
54.2
54.0
54.1
54.6

54.8
54.3
54.3
55.0
55.3

55.7
55.5
56.0
56.3
56.7
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;color:maroon"]McCain

45.9
45.8
46.0
45.9
45.4

45.2
45.7
45.7
45.0
44.7

44.3
44.5
44.0
43.7
43.3
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;color:black;border-left: 0px gray dotted"]Spread

8.3
8.5
8.0
8.1
9.3

9.7
8.5
8.6
9.9
10.5

11.4
11.0
12.0
12.7
13.4
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]Win Prob

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
99.7

100.0
99.1
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
99.0
99.6
100.0
100.0
[/quote][/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;float:left;line-height: 0.45"][/quote]
[/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote][div style="clear:left;padding-left:15px;width: 860px;font-size:16px;line-height:1.6;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;font-family: Times New Roman,Arial,Trebuchet MS"][b style="color:blue"]FINAL PROJECTION:Obama wins by76–64 million votes367–171 EV53–45% vote share margin.

The 2008 Election Model (EM) assumes as a base case that a fraud-free election is held today — and that current polls reflect the true vote. The state model projects Obama will win the Electoral Vote by 367–171. The final projected vote share is Obama-53.1 McCain-44.9% Other-2.0%. The state poll aggregate vote share matched the national average tracking poll to within 0.2%.

In May, the 2008 Election Calculator (EC) projected that Obama would win the True Vote by [link:tinyurl.com/68aefl|71–59m](54.1–44.7%).

For the 2008 EC to match the EM, its estimate of returning 60.5m-Kerry and 51.6m-Bush voters had to be accurate.
The EC used 12:22am 2004 NEP vote shares to calculate the projections.
In other words, the 2008 EC and EM confirmed that Kerry won a landslide (see below).

These graphs display the trend from May 29–Nov 3: [link:tinyurl.com/5el3zg|Electoral vote and projected vote share trend] and [link:tinyurl.com/5t5vdq|State vs. National vote share projection Trend]

The average of recent state polls is entered in the database. The EM assumes EM assumes that 60% of the undecided voters will break to Obama (base case). The [link:tinyurl.com/6g25xp|undecided vote allocation] (UVA) is based on the assumption that Obama is the challenger and McCain is running for Bush’s third term (GWB is [link:field.com/fieldpoll/presidents.html|not the most popular] of incumbents). The EM base case allocates a conservative 60% of the undecided vote to Obama; most pollsters typically use 70–90%, depending on the incumbent’s approval rating. Bush is at 22% and McCain 45%.

The model projects five vote share scenarios of undecided voter allocations (UVA) ranging from 40–90%. Obama won the base case scenario with an average 365.8 EV. The median and mode were 367. Even in the worst-case 40% UVA scenario, Obama won all 5000 election trials.

The Monte Carlo mean EV (365.8) matched the theoretical expected EV (365.3), illustrating the Law of Large Numbers (LLN): 5000 simulated election trials were required for the MEAN EV to CONVERGE to the THEORETICAL EV (the simulation is in the “longrun”). It is computational overkill to perform a [link:election.princeton.edu/|meta analysis] requiring the calculation of millions of EV combination scenarios in order to calculate the win probabilities.

Obama exceeded 360 EV in 3333 of 5000 Monte Carlo election trial simulations, so he has a 66.7% probability of winning at least 360 EV. The Monte Carlo simulation is displayed in this [link:tinyurl.com/64p9t4|Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency] chart. Note that ALL 5000 election trials are to the right of the 270 mark; therefore Obama’s win probability is 100%.

Polling data source:
[link:electoral-vote.com|Electoral-vote.com]
[link:tinyurl.com/4salnr|RealClearPolitics.com]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
THE 2008 ELECTION MODEL
Final Monte Carlo Simulation
[div style="margin-left: 2em;width: 70em;font-size: 14px; font-style: normal;font-weight: bold;line-height: 1.35"]
Assumptions[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 3em;color:blue;padding-right: 5px;"]143.0
3.0%
3.0%[/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width: 6em;padding-left: 3px;color:black;"]votes Cast
Uncounted
3rd Party[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em;padding-right: 5px;color:blue;"]138.7
4.3
2.9[/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width: 20em;padding-left: 3px;"]votes Recorded(in millions)
75% to Obama
Nader, Barr, McKinney et al[/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left"]60%Undecided Voters Allocated (UVA) to Obama[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 14em;color:black"]National Model
Tracking Poll Avg (%)
Projected True Vote %
Projected True Vote (mil)
Proj. Recorded Vote %
Proj. Recorded Vote (mil)
Proj. 2-party True Vote %

State Model
Aggregate Poll Avg (%)
Projected True Vote %
Projected True Vote (mil)
Proj. Recorded Vote %
Proj. Recorded Vote (mil)
Proj. 2-party True Vote %[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:blue"]Obama
51.1
52.9
75.7
52.3
72.5
54.1


51.3
53.1
75.9
52.4
72.7
54.3[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:maroon"]McCain
43.9
45.1
64.4
45.7
63.4
45.9


43.8
44.9
64.2
45.5
63.2
45.7[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]Oth/UV
5.0
2.0
2.9
2.1
2.9
0.0


4.9
2.0
2.9
2.1
2.9
0.0[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 4em;color:black"]Margin
7.3
7.9
11.3
6.6
9.1
8.3


7.6
8.2
11.7
6.9
9.5
8.6[/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width: 18em;color:black"]



(True Vote less Uncounted)







(True Vote less Uncounted)

[/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 14em;color:black"]Electoral Vote Snapshot
Poll Leader
Projected Leader
Expected EV[/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width: 5em;color:blue"]
367
370
365.29[/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width: 5em;color:maroon"]
171
168
172.71[/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width: 34em;color:black"]
Before UVA
After UVA
EV = ∑ (Win probability (i) * EV(i)), i=1,51 states[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation (5000 election trials)
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 14em;color:black"]Mean
Median
Mode
Maximum
Minimum[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:blue"]365.81
367
367
414
294[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:maroon"]172.19
171
171
124
244[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 30em;color:black"]Average
Middle value
Most frequent


[/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
Obama Electoral Vote Win Probabilities
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 14em;color:black"]Electoral Vote
Trial Wins > EV
Change in Trial Wins
Prob. Trial Wins > EV[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]320
4969
31
99.38%[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]330
4832
137
96.64%[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]340
4668
164
93.4%[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]350
4218
450
84.4%[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]360
3333
885
66.7%[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]370
2270
1063
45.4%[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]380
1072
1198
21.4%[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]390
380
692
7.6%[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]400
50
330
1.00%[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]410
3
47
0.06%[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]420
0
3
0.00%[/quote][/quote][/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]

[div style="font-family: Arial,Times New Roman,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.5"][div align="left" style="margin-left: 0em;padding-left:5px;font-weight:bold"][div style="line-height:1.3"]
[div style="font-family: Arial,Times New Roman,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.5"][div align="left" style="font-family: Arial,Times New Roman,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.3;padding-top: 16px;margin-top: -16px"][pre][div style="font-family: Arial, Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.5"][div align="left" style="padding-left:5px;font-family: Arial,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.3;padding-top: 16px;margin-top: -16px"][div style="width: 6.37em;float:left;padding-left:5px" align="left"][/quote][div style="width: 28em;float:left;background:#E2DDB5" align="center"]S T A T EM O D E L[/quote][div style="width: 2.0em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 28em;float:left;background:#E2DDB5" align="center"]N A T I O N A LM O D E L[/quote][div style="width: 2.0em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7.2em;float:left;background:#BEFFFF;padding-right: 1px" align="right"]MONTE CARLO[/quote][div style="width: 6.1em;float:left;background:#BEFFFF;padding-left: 6px" align="left"]SIMULATION[/quote][/span]
[div style="width: 6.37em;clear:left;float:left;padding-left:5px" align="left"][/quote][div style="width: 28em;float:left" align="center"]L A T E S TS T A T E–P O L LA V E R A G E[/quote][div style="width: 2.0em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 28em;float:left" align="center"]L A T E S TP O L L SM O V–A V E R A G E[/quote][div style="width: 2.0em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 14em;float:left" align="center"]EXPECTED[/quote]
[div style="width: 6.37em;clear:left;float:left;padding-left:5px" align="left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]Weighted[br]Aggregate[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]2-party[br]Current[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]2-party[br]Projection[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]Actual[br]Projection[/quote][div style="width: 2.0em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"][br]5-Poll[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]5-Poll 2-party[br]Current[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]2-party[br]Projection[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]Actual[br]Projection[/quote][div style="width: 2.0em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 14em;float:left" align="center"]ELECTORAL VOTE[/quote]
[div style="width: 6.37em;clear:left;float:left;padding-left:5px" align="left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]60% UVA[/quote][div style="width: 2.0em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]60% UVA[/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 6.37em;padding-left: 5px;border: 1px black solid;border-right: 0px"]11/03/2008[br][b style="color:blue"]Obama
McCain[b][div align="left"][link:www.electoral-vote.com/|EV Map][/quote][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"]51.3
43.8[br][b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]54.0
46.0[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]54.28
45.7[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]53.08
44.9[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 2em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]
[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][br]51.1
43.9[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]53.8
46.2[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]54.14
45.9[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]52.94
45.1[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 2em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]
[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 14em;border: 1px solid black;border-left: 0px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]365.3
172.7[b][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0"] [/quote]
[div style="width: 20.37em;clear:left;float:left;padding-left:5px" align="left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]75% UVA[/quote][div style="width: 2.0em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]75% UVA[/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 6.37em;padding-left: 5px;border: 1px black solid;border-right: 0px"]11/01/2004[b style="color:blue"]Kerry
Bush[b][div align="left"][link:www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Nov01.html|EV Map][/quote][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]47.88
46.89[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]50.52
49.48[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]51.80
48.20[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]51.05
47.95[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 2em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]
[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]47.80
46.60[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]50.64
49.36[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]51.77
48.23[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]51.25
47.75[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 2em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]
[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 14em;border: 1px solid black;border-left: 0px solid black"][b style="color:blue"] 337
201 [b][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0"] [/quote]
[div style="clear:left;margin-top: -4px;font-size: 11px;font-family: Arial,Times New Roman,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma;line-height: 1.5"]
[div style="width: 41em;clear:left;float:left;padding-left:5px;font-size:13px" align="left"]Sensitivity Analysis — Impact of Uncounted and Switched Votes on Obama[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;width: 7.75em;float:left;border: 1px solid black" align="center"]Uncounted[/quote][div style="width: 7.75em;float:left;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black" align="right"]1%[/quote][div style="width: 6.5em;float:left;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black;border-right: 1px solid black"][/quote][div style="width: 7.75em;float:left;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black" align="right"]2%[/quote][div style="width: 6.5em;float:left;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black;border-right: 1px solid black"][/quote][div style="width: 7.75em;float:left;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black" align="right"]3%[/quote][div style="width: 6.5em;float:left;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black;border-right: 1px solid black"][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;width: 7.75em;float:left;border: 1px solid black;border-top: 0px" align="center"]Switched
4%
8%
10%[/quote][div style="width: 7.75em;float:left;border-bottom: 1px solid black;border-right: 0px solid white;color:blue" align="center"]Vote%
52.0
49.8
48.7[/quote][div style="width: 6.5em;float:left;border-bottom: 1px solid black;border-right: 1px solid black;color:blue" align="center"]EV
311
276
251[/quote][div style="width: 7.75em;float:left;border-bottom: 1px solid black;color:blue" align="center"]Vote%
51.8
49.6
48.5[/quote][div style="width: 6.5em;float:left;border-bottom: 1px solid black;border-right: 1px solid black;color:blue" align="center"]EV
305
272
247[/quote][div style="width: 7.75em;float:left;border-bottom: 1px solid black;color:blue" align="center"]Vote%
51.6
49.4
48.3[/quote][div style="width: 6.5em;float:left;border-bottom: 1px solid black;border-right: 1px solid black;color:blue" align="center"]EV
319
266
242[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.5"] [/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;margin-top: 1.0em;width: 50em;padding-left: 5px;font-size:13px" align="left"]Sensitivity Analysis — Impact of Aggregate State Projected Vote Share[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 50.6em;max-width: 49.9em;padding: 10px 5px;border: 1px solid black"][div align="left" style="float:left;width: 16.1em;padding-left: 5px" align="left"]Undecided Voter Allocation[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]Current[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]Base Case[/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 8em;padding-left: 5px"]Obama[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em;color:black;background:#BEFFFF"]40%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em;;color:black;background:#BEFFFF"]54.0%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em;color:black;background:#BEFFFF"]60%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em;;color:black;background:#BEFFFF"]75%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em;;color:black;background:#BEFFFF"]90%[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.5"] [/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 24em;padding-left:5px" align="left"]Projected 2-Party Vote Share[/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 8em;padding-left: 5px"]Obama
McCain[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]53.3
46.7[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]54.0
46.0[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]54.3
45.7[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]55.0
45.0[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]55.7
44.3[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.5"] [/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 8em;padding-left:5px" align="left"]MoE[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 40.5em"]Popular Vote – Obama Win Probability (Normdist)[/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 8em;padding-left: 5px"]1.0 %
2.0 %
3.0 %[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]100.0
99.9
98.4[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"][b style="padding: 0px 7px;border: 1px solid black"]100.0
100.0
99.5[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]100.0
100.0
99.7[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]100.0
100.0
99.9[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]100.0
100.0
100.0[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.5"] [/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 48.5em;padding-left:5px" align="left"]Electoral Vote – Obama(Monte Carlo Simulation:based on state win-probabilities)[/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 8em;padding-left: 5px"]Mean
Median[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]345.0
347[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]359.0
362[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]365.8
367[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]379.5
381[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]393.8
396[/quote][div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 8em;padding-left: 5px"]Mode
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]367
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]367
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]367
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]381
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]396
[/quote][div align="left" style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote][div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 8em;padding-left: 5px"]Maximum
Minimum[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]395
289[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]406
294[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]414
294[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]421
317[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]445
333[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.5"] [/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 32.2em;padding-left:5px" align="left"]Electoral Vote – Obama Win Probability[/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 8em;padding-left: 5px"]Trial Wins
Probability[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]5000
100.0[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]5000
100.0[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]5000
100.0[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]5000
100.0[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]5000
100.0[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.5"] [/quote]
[div style="clear:left;width: 32.2em;padding-left:5px" align="left"]95% EV Confidence Interval[/quote][div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 8em;padding-left: 5px"]Upper
Lower[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]381
309[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]394
324[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]399
333[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]409
350[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]421
367[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.5"] [/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;width: 8em;padding-left: 5px"]States Won[/quote][div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 8em;padding-left: 5px"]Obama
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]28
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]30
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]31
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]32
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]33[/quote][/quote][/quote]
[/quote][/quote][/quote][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
2008 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS

National Model — see atop
State Model

[div style="font-family: Arial, Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.3"][div style="margin-left:0em;font-weight:bold"][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em"] [/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 10em"] [/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;font-size: 12px;width: 15em;background:#E2DDB5"]L A T E S TS T A T EP O L L [/quote][div style="float:left;width: 13.5em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 9em;font-size: 12px;background:#E2DDB5;letter-spacing: 2px"]KEY STATES(within MoE)[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 4.8em;max-width: 4.1em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 26.1em;font-size: 12px;background:#E2DDB5;letter-spacing: 2px"]2004RECORDED VOTE–COUNTvsKERRYEMVOTE–PROJECTION&WPEEXIT POLL[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 4.15em;max-width: 4.125em"][/quote][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 11.4em;margin-left: -0.32em;font-size: 12px;background:#E2DDB5;letter-spacing: 2px"]2008vs2004[br]PROJECTEDVOTE[/quote]

[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.7"][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;font-family: Arial, Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.3"][div style="margin-left:0em;width: 120em;font-weight:bold"][div style="float:left;width: 5em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 10em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 16em;background:#BEFFFF"]Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6.8em;background:#BEFFFF"]60% UVA[br]Projection[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5.3em"]MC Exp EV[br]Win Prob[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 10.5em"][br]ResourceAllocation[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 4em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6.8em;background:#BEFFFF;border-left: 0px solid black"]Vote[br]Projected[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em;border-right: 0px solid black"][b style="background:#B4EEB4"]WPE (IM)[br]Exit Poll[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5em;border-right: 0px solid black;background:#FFC1C1"]VoteCounted[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.7em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 9.7em;background:#FFC1C1;border-right: 0px solid black"]Vote Counted[br][div style="width: 9.7em;background:white"]deviation[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 4em"][br][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6.9em;background:#BEFFFF"]2008 Obama[br][div style="width: 6.9em;background: white"]diff[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: .5em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5em"]StatesEV[br]Flip To(*)[/quote][/quote][div align="center" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 5em;color:black;font-weight:bold"]



AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA

CO
CT
DC
DE
FL

GA
HI
ID
IL
IN

IA
KS
KY
LA
ME

MD
MA
MI
MN
MS

MO
MT
NE
NV
NH

NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND

OH
OK
OR
PA
RI

SC
SD
TN
TX
UT

VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em"][b]Last
Poll
Date

10/28
10/30
10/30
10/31
10/31

10/30
10/22
9/13
10/28
11/2

10/30
9/20
9/17
11/1
11/2

11/1
10/28
11/1
10/29
11/1

9/20
10/28
11/1
11/2
10/29

11/2
11/2
9/30
11/2
10/30

10/30
10/31
10/28
11/2
10/29

11/2
10/29
10/30
11/2
10/1

10/29
10/31
10/22
10/21
10/30

10/26
11/2
10/31
10/26
10/29
10/29
[/quote] [div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em"]VoteShare
Popular
Electoral

9
3
10
6
55

9
7
3
3
27

15
4
4
21
11

7
6
8
9
4

10
12
17
10
6

11
3
5
5
4

15
5
31
15
3

20
7
7
21
4

8
3
11
34
5

3
13
11
5
10
3
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em;color:blue"]Obama
51.34 %
367

36
40
46
44
60

51
56
90
63
49

46
68
33
60
46

54
39
41
40
56

57
55
53
53
42

47
48
37
51
53

55
53
64
49
46

51
34
56
52
58

43
44
40
44
32

60
51
54
42
54
35
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5.0em;color:maroon"]McCain
43.77 %
171

61
58
50
51
36

45
35
9
33
47

49
27
62
37
48

39
56
55
50
43

38
37
38
43
53

46
47
56
44
42

38
45
31
48
47

45
63
39
43
39

53
53
54
54
56

36
46
39
50
40
58
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 1.0em;color:black"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;color:black"]Spread
7.57 %
196

-25
-18
-4
-7
24

6
21
81
30
2

-3
41
-29
23
-2

15
-17
-14
-10
13

19
18
15
10
-11

1
1
-19
7
11

17
8
33
1
-1

6
-29
17
9
19

-10
-9
-14
-10
-24

24
5
15
-8
14
-23
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;color:blue"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6.8em;color:blue"]Obama
54.28 %
370

37.8
41.2
48.4
47.0
62.4

53.4
61.4
90.6
65.4
51.4

49.0
71.0
36.0
61.8
49.6

58.2
42.0
43.4
46.0
56.6

60.0
59.8
58.4
55.4
45.0

51.2
51.0
41.2
54.0
56.0

59.2
54.2
67.0
50.8
50.2

53.4
35.8
59.0
55.0
59.8

45.4
45.8
43.6
45.2
39.2

62.4
52.8
58.2
46.8
57.6
39.2 [/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;color:blue"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5.3em;color:black;border-right: 0px black solid"]Obama
100.0 %
[b style="color:blue"]365.3

0.0
0.0
14.8
2.5
100.0

98.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
82.0

25.7
100.0
0.0
100.0
39.7

100.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.1

78.3
74.3
0.0
99.6
100.0

100.0
99.7
100.0
69.9
55.2

98.7
0.0
100.0
99.9
100.0

0.1
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.0

100.0
96.6
100.0
1.8
100.0
0.0 [/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;color:blue"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black;border-right: 0px black solid"]Percent





6.0
1.4


3.2



22.7

10.8



9.2













10.6
2.9

1.2



0.6

14.4
2.9

7.2












6.2

0.6

[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;color:blue"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black;border-right: 0px black solid"]Rank





8
12


9



1

3



5













4
10

13



14

2
10

6












7

14

[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 4em;color:blue"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6.8em;color:blue"]FinalKerry
51.02 %
337

41.3
39.0
48.0
49.8
55.0

50.0
55.8
85.5
57.0
51.5

45.8
51.8
37.5
56.3
40.5

53.8
38.5
42.0
48.3
57.5

55.5
70.0
53.5
54.3
46.5

49.3
40.5
36.5
49.8
50.8

55.3
49.8
59.3
48.5
41.8

51.5
35.5
53.8
53.0
61.3

43.5
45.8
48.5
39.3
28.5

57.5
47.8
54.3
48.8
54.0
32.8
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em;color:black"]JK Unadj
51.98 %
337

41.8
40.2
44.5
45.2
60.1

50.1
62.3
90.6
61.3
51.0

42.0
58.1
32.3
56.6
40.4

50.7
37.2
39.9
43.5
55.6

59.6
65.8
54.4
55.7
49.4

49.0
37.3
37.0
52.8
57.2

57.5
53.0
64.5
49.5
34.6

54.0
33.8
53.0
55.1
62.1

45.8
35.9
43.2
42.0
28.1

66.5
49.8
56.8
40.2
52.1
32.6[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]Kerry
48.27 %
252

36.8
35.5
44.4
44.5
54.3

47.0
54.3
89.2
53.3
47.1

41.4
54.0
30.3
54.8
39.3

49.2
36.6
39.7
42.2
53.6

55.9
61.9
51.2
51.1
39.8

46.1
38.6
32.7
47.9
50.2

52.9
49.0
58.4
43.6
35.5

48.7
34.4
51.3
50.9
59.4

40.9
38.4
42.5
38.2
26.0

58.9
45.5
52.8
43.2
49.7
29.1
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.7em;color:black"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5em;margin-left: 0em;color:black"]Projected
-2.75 %
-85

-4.4
-3.5
-3.6
-5.2
-0.7

-3.0
-1.4
3.7
-3.7
-4.4

-4.4
2.3
-7.2
-1.4
-1.2

-4.5
-1.9
-2.3
-6.0
-3.9

0.4
-8.1
-2.3
-3.2
-6.3

-3.1
-1.9
-3.8
-1.9
-0.5

-2.3
-0.7
-0.9
-4.9
-6.3

-2.8
-1.1
-2.4
-2.1
-1.8

-2.6
-7.3
-6.0
-1.0
-2.5

1.4
-2.3
-1.4
-5.6
-4.3
-3.7
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;color:black"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4.5em;color:black;border-right: 0px solid black"]Polled
- 3.71 %
-85

-5.0
-4.7
-0.1
-0.6
-5.8

-3.1
-8.0
-1.4
-8.0
-3.9

-0.6
-4.1
-2.0
-1.8
-1.1

-1.5
-0.5
-0.2
-1.3
-2.0

-3.7
-3.9
-3.2
-4.6
-9.3

-2.9
1.3
-4.4
-5.0
-7.0

-4.6
-4.0
-6.1
-6.0
0.9

-5.3
0.6
-1.7
-4.2
-2.7

-4.9
2.6
-0.6
-3.8
-2.2

-7.6
-4.4
-4.0
3.0
-2.4
-3.5[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 4.0em;color:black"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6.9em;margin-left: -0.2em;color:black"]FinalKerry
2.76 %
33

-4.0
1.7
-0.1
-3.3
6.9

2.9
5.2
4.6
7.9
-0.6

2.8
18.8
-2.0
5.1
8.6

4.0
3.0
0.9
-2.8
-1.4

4.0
-10.7
4.4
0.7
-2.0

1.5
10.0
4.2
3.8
4.8

3.5
4.0
7.3
1.8
8.0

1.4
-0.2
4.8
1.5
-2.0

1.4
-0.5
-5.4
5.5
10.2

4.4
4.6
3.5
-2.5
3.1
6.0
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black;border-right: 0px solid black"]Obama
12
128

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA

CO*
CT
DC
DE
FL*

GA
HI
ID
IL
IN

IA*
KS
KY
LA
ME

MD
MA
MI
MN
MS

MO*
MT*
NE
NV*
NH

NJ
NM*
NY
NC*
ND*

OH*
OK
OR
PA
RI

SC
SD
TN
TX
UT

VT
VA*
WA
WV
WI*
WY
[/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.4;width: 840px;font-size: 16px;font-weight:normal;font-family: Times New Roman,Arial,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif';font-style:normal"]
[div style="clear:left;line-height:1.0"][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;font-style: italic;color:blue;font-weight:600;font-family: Arial,Trebuchet MS;font-size: 18px"]The 2008 Election Calculator Model confirms the 2004 and 2008 Election Model (and vice-versa)[/quote]
In May 2008, the [link:tinyurl.com/6p3kkx|2008 Election Calculator] projected that Obama would win the True Vote by [link:tinyurl.com/68aefl|71–59m] (54.1–44.7%).

Checking the 2004 Election Calculator (EC) True Vote and the 2008 Election Model (EM) Projections
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]On Nov.3, 2008 the following test was performed:

The 12:22am 2004 NEP vote shares were input to the 2008 EC.
In the 2008 EM, 75% UVA and 3rd party 1% share were input to match 2004 EC assumptions.
The resulting 2008 EC projection closely matched the EM (to within 0.2%).
Therefore, the EC 2004 vote shares and weighting mix are also confirmed and therefore must be fairly accurate.
The 2008 EC could only be accurate (and match the EM), if the input estimate of returning 2004 Bush and Kerry voters was also accurate.
The model estimates 60m returning Kerry voters and 51.6m returning Bush voters.
Given a 75% UVA and 1% to Other, the EC projects Obama will win by 78.3–63.8 million votes, assuming a fraud-free election.
Note that the base case EM is 60% UVA and 2% Other

[div style="margin-left:1em;font-size: 14px;font-family:Arial;Courier New,Arial;line-height: 1.2"]
[link:www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionCalculator.htm|2008 Election Calculator] (EC)

[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 11em;border-bottom: 1px solid black;font-weight:bold;font-style:normal"]2004-VotersReturnin 2008— Estimate[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 9em;font-family:Arial;Courier New,Arial;background:#BEFFFF;font-weight:bold"][b style="color:black"]True 'Voted 2004'Mix[link:www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionCalculator.htm|Calculated][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 17em;font-family:Arial,Courier New,Arial;font-weight:bold"][link:tinyurl.com/5lsx6e|12:22am NEP] Shares ('[b style="color:maroon"]13047')[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 4em"]In 2004

Kerry
Bush
Other

[link:tinyurl.com/bpkr5|125.7][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em"]Turnout '08
DNV
95%
95%
95%

113.7[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4em;font-weight:bold"]Votes
29.9
60.6
51.6
1.6

143.7[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em;font-weight:bold"]Mix
20.8%
42.2%
35.9%
1.1%

100.0%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em"]Obama
57%
91%
10%
64%

54.5%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]McCain
41%
8%
90%
11%

44.4%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]Other
6%
3%
3%
25%

1.1%[/quote]
[div style="color:blue;font-weight:bold;font-family:Arial;font-size: 14px;"]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 18em;color:black"]75% UVA[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em"]143.7[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em"]78.3[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]63.8[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]1.5[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.5"][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.5"][/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 23em;color:black"]2008 Election Model (75% UVA) (EM)[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em"]54.3%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]44.7%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]1.0%[/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 18em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em"]143.7[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em"]78.0[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]64.3[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]1.4[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 23em;color:black"]2008 Election Model (60% UVA) (EM)[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em"]53.1%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]44.9%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]2.0%[/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 18em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em"]143.7[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em"]75.9[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]64.2[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]2.9[/quote][/quote]

[div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0px"][/quote]
Refer to source for the following Topics:
[div style="clear:left;font-style: italic;color:blue;font-weight:600;font-family: Arial,Trebuchet MS;font-size: 18px"]
Projected Vote Shares, Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities

The 1988-2004 Election Calculator (formatted presentation [link:www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=7647439|here])

Why Election Model projections differ from the Media, Academia and the Bloggers

Fixing the polls: Party ID, Voted in 2000, RV vs. LV

The Great Election Fraud Lockdown: Uncounted, Stuffed and Switched Votes

Election Model Calculations

Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote and Win Probability[/quote]

[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0px"][/quote]
[div style="font-weight:bold;line-height:1.4"]Other links:
[link:tinyurl.com/65pn8f|2004 Election Model Summary, Polling Analysis, National & State Model tables]
[link:tinyurl.com/5zjqsz|Confirmation of
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