TruthIsAll
12-01-2009, 07:13 PM
The Final Exit Poll Timeline Exposes the "False Recall" Canard
TruthIsAll
Dec. 9, 2009
The purpose of this post is to lay out the evidence which disproves “false recall”, the final argument that has been promoted to cast doubt on the preliminary 2004 National Exit Poll (NEP) in which Kerry was a 51-48% winner. The unadjusted aggregate state exit polls had Kerry winning by 52-47%
The premise of false recall is that the mathematically impossible 43/37% returning Bush/Gore voter share in the Final 2004 National Exit Poll was due to returning Gore voters misstating their past vote. The Final NEP was forced to match the 51-48% recorded Bush win.
The Final NEP is mathematically impossible since the number of returning Bush voters implied by the 43% weighting is 52.6 million (122.3 million votes were recorded in 2004). Bush only had 50.46 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died, therefore the number of returning Bush voters must have been less than 48 million. Assuming 98% turnout, there were 47 million returning Bush voters, 5.6 million fewer than implied by the Final NEP.
Based on 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry wins by 10m votes with 53.2% - assuming equal 98% turnout of returning Bush and Gore voters. He wins by 7 million given 98/90% Bush/Gore turnout. Total votes cast in 2000 and 2004 are used to calculate returning and new voters.
Only 1368 respondents were asked their PAST 2000 vote but ALL exit poll respondents were asked whom the JUST voted for in 2004. The Kerry trend was consistent at the 7:33pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047) time lines. Kerry gained 1085 votes and Bush 1025 from 7:33 to 12:22/ Third-parties declined by 90 due to the 4% to 3% change in share of the electorate.
False recall is disproved in a number of ways.
1. False recall is based on a subset (3168) of the Final NEP 13660 respondents who were asked how they voted in 2000. But all 13660 were asked whom they JUST voted for in 2004.
2. The Preliminary 12:22am NEP consisted of 3025 of the total 3168 respondents who were asked how they voted in 2000. The weighted result indicated that returning Bush voters comprised 41% (50.1m) of the electorate. The Final NEP "Voted in 2000" crosstab (as well as all other crosstabs) was forced to match the recorded vote. To do this required that 43% (52.6m) of the electorate be returning Bush voters. The change from 41% to 43% was based on just 143 additional respondents (from 3025 to 3168).
a) There was an impossible late switch in respondent totals. Between 7:33pm and 12:22am, the trend was consistent: Kerry gained 254 votes, Bush 239. Third-parties declined by 13. But between 12:22am and the Final, Kerry's total declined by 13, Bush gained 182 and third party lost 26.
b) It was also impossible that returning Bush voters would increase from 41% to 43% (122) and returning Gore voters would decline from 39% to 37% (8). Regardless, the Final 43/37% split was mathematically impossible. It implied there were 5.6 million more returning Bush voters than could have voted, assuming that 47 (98%) of the 48 million who were alive turned out.
c) The increase in Bush's share of new voters from 41% to 45% (+31) was impossible; there were just 24 additional new voters. Kerry lost 2.
d) The changes in the Gender demographic were impossible. The Kerry trend was consistent at the 11027 and 13047 respondent time lines. Kerry gained 1085 and Bush 1025. Third-parties declined by 90.
e) There was an impossible shift to Bush among the final 613 respondents (from 13047 to 13660). Kerry’s total declined by 99, while Bush gained 706. Third-parties gained 6. That could not have happened unless weights and vote shares were adjusted by a human. In other words, it could not have been the result of an actual sample.
3. False recall assumes that 43/37% was a sampled result. But we have just shown that it is mathematically impossible because a) it implies there were 5.6 million more returning Bush voters than could have voted in 2004 and b) the 41/39% split at 12:22am could not have changed to 43/37% in the Final with just 143 additional respondents in the "Voted 2000" category.
4. The exit pollsters claim that it is standard operating procedure to force the exit poll to match the recorded vote. The Final was forced to match the recorded vote by a) adjusting the returning Bush/Gore voter mix to an impossible 43/37% and b)simultaneously increasing the Bush shares of returning Bush, Gore and new voters to implausible levels using impossible adjustments.
5. Just reviewing the time line, it is obvious that the exit pollsters do in fact adjust weights and vote shares to force a match the recorded vote. It's SOP. But it immediately invalidates the naysayer claim that the 43/37 split was due to Gore voter false recall. No, it was due to exit poll data manipulation.
6. Which is more believable: a) that the exit pollsters followed the standard procedure of forcing the poll to match the vote, or b) that at least 8% more returning Gore voters claimed they voted for Bush in 2000 than returning Bush voters claimed they voted for Gore?
7. As indicated above, there was a maximum number of returning Bush 2000 voters who could have voted in 2004: the ones who were still living. So the 43/37% split is not only impossible, it is also irrelevant. It doesn’t matter what the returning voters said regarding their 2000 vote. We already know the four-year voter mortality rate (5%) and maximum LIVING voter turnout (98%).
8. False recall assumes that the returning voter mix is a sampled result. But the 4% increase in differential between returning Bush and Gore voters (from 2% to 6%) is impossible since the total number of respondents increased by just 143 (from 3025 to 3168).
9. The false recall claim is based on NES surveys of 500-600 respondents that indicate voters misstate past votes. But the reported deviations are based on the prior recorded vote – not the True Vote. There have been an average of 7 million net uncounted votes in each of the last eleven elections. The majority (70-80%) were Democratic. In 2000, there were 5.4 million. When measured against the True Vote (whi is based on total votes cast, reduced by mortality and voter turnout), the average deviations are near zero. Therefore, the NES respondents told the truth about their past vote.
10. The 2006 and 2008 Final National Exit Polls were forced to match the recorded vote with impossible 49/43% and 46/37% returning Bush/Kerry voter percentages. The 2008 Final required 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. These anomalies are just additional proof that false recall is totally bogus – a final “Hail Mary” pass to divert, confuse and cover-up the truth. The exit pollsters just did what they are paid to do:
FORCE THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE EVEN IF THE CHANGES ARE IMPLAUSIBLE OR MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE.
Note:
All demographic category cross tabs required changes to the weights and/or the vote shares in order to force a match to the recorded vote. Categories which required changes to weights AND vote shares include: Party-ID, Voted 2000, Bush Approval, Region, Education, Income, Ideology, When Decided.
The following categories required changes ONLY to the vote shares: Gender, Race and Gender, Age, Military Service, Community Size,
The Final NEP vote shares and/or weights for Party-ID, Voted 2000, Bush Approval and When Decided do not agree with other data sources:
-Bush approval: was 48% based on the average of 11 final pre-election polls. With 48% Bush approval and preliminary vote shares, Kerry has a 53.6% total share.
-Party-ID: was 39/35% Dem/Rep based on other studies.
-Voted 2000: The 43/37% Bush/Gore weighting mix was mathematically impossible.
-When Decided: Kerry and Bush were tied in the polls one month prior to the election. The Final indicates that Bush led by 7 points.
2004 National Exit Poll
Voted in 2000
7:33pm 2545 respondents 80.3% of 3168
Voted in Respondents Share Respondents Vote
MoE 2000 Mix Total Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
1.9% DNV 17% 433 - 59% 39% 2% 255 169 9
1.1% Gore 38% 967 - 91% 8% 1% 880 77 10
1.1% Bush 41% 1043 - 9% 90% 1% 94 939 10
1.9% Other 4% 102 - 65% 13% 22% 66 13 22
1.9% Total 2545 - 50.90% 47.09% 2.01% 1295 1198 51
12:22am 3025 respondents 95.5% of 3168
MoE Voted Mix Total Change Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
1.8% DNV 17% 514 82 57% 41% 2% 293 211 10
1.0% Gore 39% 1180 213 91% 8% 1% 1074 94 12
1.1% Bush 41% 1240 197 10% 90% 0% 124 1116 0
1.7% Other 3% 91 -11 64% 17% 19% 58 15 17
1.8% Total 3025 480 51.20% 47.50% 1.30% 1549 1437 39
Change from 7:33pm 480 52.79% 49.67% -2.46% 254 239 -12
Final 3168 respondents (forced to match the recorded vote)
Mix Total Change Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 17% 539 24 54% 45% 1% 291 242 5
Gore 37% 1172 -8 90% 10% 0% 1055 117 0
Bush 43% 1362 122 9% 91% 0% 123 1240 0
Other 3% 95 4 71% 21% 8% 67 20 8
Total 3168 143 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 1536 1619 13
Change from 12:22am 143 -9.1% 127.5% -18.4% -13 182 -26
Change from 7:33pm 623 38.6% 67.5% -6.1% 240 421 -38
The Gender Demographic
2004 National Exit Poll
7:33pm 11027 respondents (80.7%)
MoE 11027 Mix Total Change Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
0.93% Female 54% 5955 - 53% 45% 2% 3156 2680 119
0.93% Male 46% 5072 - 47% 51% 2% 2384 2587 101
Total 11027 - 50.24% 47.76% 2.00% 5540 5266 221
12:22am 13047 respondents (95.5%)
MoE Gender Mix Total Change Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
0.86% Female 54% 7045 1091 54% 45% 1% 3805 3170 70
0.86% Male 46% 6002 929 47% 52% 1% 2821 3121 60
Total 13047 2020 50.78% 48.22% 1.00% 6626 6291 130
Change from 7:33pm 2020 53.73% 50.73% -4.46% 1086 1025 -90
Final 13660 respondents
MoE Gender Mix Total Change Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
0.84% Female 54% 7376 331 51% 48% 1% 3762 3541 74
0.83% Male 46% 6284 282 44% 55% 1% 2765 3456 63
Total 13660 613 47.78% 51.22% 1.0% 6527 6997 137
Change from 12:22am 613 -16.1% 115.1% 1.0% -99 706 7
Change from 7:33pm 2633 37.5% 65.7% -3.2% 987 1731 -84
Recursive True Vote Model
True Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 2004 Vote Share
2000 2000 2000 2004 2004 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - - - - 22.6 17.9 57 41 2
Gore 50.5% 56.0 51.0 53.2 52.1 52.1 41.5 91 8 1
Bush 45.8% 50.8 50.5 48.2 47.3 47.3 37.6 10 90 0
Other 3.7% 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.0 64 17 19
Total 110.8 105.4 105.3 103.2 125.7 Share 53.6 45.0 1.3
Vote 67.4 56.6 1.7
Recorded Share 48.3 50.7 1.0
Vote 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2
PRELIMINARY FINAL TRUE VOTE
Nov. 3, 12:22am, 13047 respondents Nov. 3, 2:04pm, 13660 respondents
Forced to match recorded vote
48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
CATEGORY Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
Average 50.83% 47.92% 1.25% 47.94% 51.11% 0.96% 53.41% 45.56% 1.03%
Total Votes 62.16 58.60 1.53 58.62 62.50 1.17 67.15 57.30 1.29
Gender 50.78% 48.22% 1.00% 47.78% 51.22% 1.00% 53.24% 45.76% 1.00%
Party-ID 51.07% 47.85% 1.08% 47.89% 51.22% 0.89% 53.34% 45.66% 1.00%
Voted 2000 51.43% 47.60% 0.97% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 53.33% 45.35% 1.32%
Region 50.53% 47.95% 1.52% 48.24% 51.08% 0.68% 53.43% 45.57% 1.00%
Education 50.43% 48.18% 1.39% 47.82% 51.24% 0.94% 53.53% 45.47% 1.00%
Race 50.98% 47.61% 1.41% 47.81% 50.99% 1.20% 53.34% 45.66% 1.00%
Age 50.26% 47.69% 2.05% 47.96% 51.28% 0.76% 53.36% 45.64% 1.00%
Income 51.07% 47.75% 1.18% 48.13% 51.02% 0.85% 53.45% 45.55% 1.00%
Ideology 50.18% 48.60% 1.22% 47.25% 51.54% 1.21% 53.51% 45.49% 1.00%
Religion 50.78% 48.01% 1.21% 47.99% 50.94% 1.07% 53.39% 45.61% 1.00%
Military 51.20% 47.62% 1.18% 48.38% 50.44% 1.18% 53.56% 45.44% 1.00%
Decided 51.23% 47.93% 0.84% 47.50% 51.22% 1.28% 53.40% 45.60% 1.00%
Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other
GENDER
Male 46.0% 47% 52% 1% 46% 44% 55% 1% 46.0% 50.0% 49.0% 1.0%
Fem 54.0% 54% 45% 1% 54% 51% 48% 1% 54.0% 56.0% 43.0% 1.0%
Share 100% 50.78% 48.22% 1.00% 100% 47.78% 51.22% 1.00% 100% 53.24% 45.76% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 62.10 58.97 1.22 122.30 58.43 62.64 1.22 125.74 66.94 57.54 1.26
PARTY ID
Dem 38% 91% 9% 0% 37%* 89% 11% 0% 38% 92% 7% 1%
Rep 35% 7% 93% 0% 37%* 6% 93% 1% 35% 7% 92% 1%
Ind 27% 52% 44% 4% 26% 49% 49% 2% 27% 59% 40% 1%
Share 100% 51.07% 47.85% 1.08% 100% 47.89% 51.22% 0.89% 100% 53.34% 45.66% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 62.46 58.52 1.32 122.30 58.57 62.64 1.09 125.74 67.07 57.41 1.26
VOTED IN 2000
New 11% 55% 43% 2%
DNV 6% 61% 37% 2% 17% 54% 45% 1% 17% 60% 38% 2%
Gore 39% 91% 8% 1% 37%* 90% 10% 0% 41% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 41% 10% 90% 0% 43%* 9% 91% 0% 39% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3% 71% 21% 8% 3% 71% 21% 8% 3% 64% 17% 19%
Share 100% 51.43% 47.60% 0.97% 100% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 100% 53.33% 45.35% 1.32%
Votes 122.30 62.90 58.21 1.19 122.30 59.29 62.50 0.50 125.74 67.06 57.02 1.66
REGION
East 22% 58% 41% 1% 22% 56% 43% 1% 22% 61% 38% 1%
Midw 26% 50% 49% 1% 26% 48% 51% 1% 26% 53% 46% 1%
South 31% 44% 54% 2% 32%* 42% 58% 0% 31% 46% 53% 1%
West 21% 53% 45% 2% 20%* 50% 49% 1% 21% 57% 42% 1%
Share 100% 50.53% 47.95% 1.52% 100% 48.24% 51.08% 0.68% 100% 53.43% 45.57% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 61.80 58.64 1.86 122.30 59.00 62.47 0.83 125.74 67.18 57.30 1.26
EDUCATION
Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other
oHS 4% 53% 46% 1% 4% 50% 49% 1% 4% 53% 46% 1%
HSG 22% 50% 48% 2% 22% 47% 52% 1% 22% 54% 45% 1%
College 31% 48% 51% 1% 32%* 46% 54% 0% 31% 51% 48% 1%
ColGrd 26% 49% 50% 1% 26% 46% 52% 2% 26% 52% 47% 1%
PostGrd 17% 57% 41% 2% 16%* 55% 44% 1% 17% 60% 39% 1%
Share 100% 50.43% 48.18% 1.39% 100% 47.82% 51.24% 0.94% 100% 53.53% 45.47% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 61.67 58.92 1.70 122.30 58.48 62.66 1.15 125.74 67.31 57.17 1.26
RACE AND GENDER
WMale 36% 40% 59% 1% 36% 37% 62% 1% 36% 43% 56% 1%
WFem 41% 47% 51% 2% 41% 44% 55% 1% 41% 49% 50% 1%
NwMale 10% 73% 26% 1% 10% 67% 30% 3% 10% 75% 24% 1%
NwFem 13% 77% 22% 1% 13% 75% 24% 1% 13% 79% 20% 1%
Share 100% 50.98% 47.61% 1.41% 100% 47.81% 50.99% 1.20% 100% 53.34% 45.66% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 62.35 58.22 1.72 122.30 58.47 62.36 1.47 125.74 67.07 57.41 1.26
AGE
18-29 17% 56% 42% 2% 17% 54% 45% 1% 17% 61% 38% 1%
30-44 29% 48% 49% 3% 29% 46% 53% 1% 29% 51% 48% 1%
45-59 30% 51% 47% 2% 30% 48% 51% 1% 30% 54% 45% 1%
60+ 24% 48% 51% 1% 24% 46% 54% 0% 24% 50% 49% 1%
Share 100% 50.26% 47.69% 2.05% 100% 47.96% 51.28% 0.76% 100% 53.36% 45.64% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 61.47 58.32 2.51 122.30 58.65 62.71 0.93 125.74 67.09 57.39 1.26
INCOME
0-15K 9% 65% 34% 1% 8%* 63% 36% 1% 9% 69% 30% 1%
15-30 15% 60% 39% 1% 15% 57% 42% 1% 15% 63% 36% 1%
30-50 22% 53% 46% 1% 22% 50% 49% 1% 22% 55% 44% 1%
50-75 23% 46% 53% 1% 23% 43% 56% 1% 23% 48% 51% 1%
75-100 13% 48% 51% 1% 14%* 45% 55% 0% 13% 49% 50% 1%
100-150 11% 43% 55% 2% 11% 42% 57% 1% 11% 48% 51% 1%
150-200 4% 43% 55% 2% 4% 42% 58% 0% 4% 45% 54% 1%
200+ 3% 43% 55% 2% 3% 35% 63% 2% 3% 40% 59% 1%
Share 100% 51.07% 47.75% 1.18% 100% 48.13% 51.02% 0.85% 100% 53.45% 45.55% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 62.46 58.40 1.44 122.30 58.86 62.39 1.04 125.74 67.21 57.27 1.26
IDEOLOGY
Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other
Lib 22% 86% 12% 2% 21%* 85% 13% 2% 22% 92% 7% 1%
Mod 45% 57% 42% 1% 45% 54% 45% 1% 45% 60% 39% 1%
Con 33% 17% 82% 1% 34%* 15% 84% 1% 33% 19% 80% 1%
Share 100% 50.18% 48.60% 1.22% 100% 47.25% 51.54% 1.21% 100% 53.51% 45.49% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 61.37 59.44 1.49 122.30 57.78 63.03 1.48 125.74 67.28 57.20 1.26
RELIGION
Prot 53% 43% 56% 1% 53% 40% 59% 1% 53% 45% 54% 1%
Cath 27% 50% 49% 1% 27% 47% 52% 1% 27% 53% 46% 1%
Jewish 3% 78% 22% 0% 3% 74% 25% 1% 3% 79% 20% 1%
Other 7% 75% 22% 3% 7% 74% 24% 2% 7% 78% 21% 1%
None 10% 69% 29% 2% 10% 67% 32% 1% 10% 74% 25% 1%
Share 100% 50.78% 48.01% 1.21% 100% 47.99% 50.94% 1.07% 100% 53.39% 45.61% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 62.10 58.71 1.48 122.30 58.69 62.30 1.31 125.74 67.13 57.35 1.26
MILITARY
Yes 18% 43% 55% 2% 18% 41% 57% 2% 18% 47% 52% 1%
No 82% 53% 46% 1% 82% 50% 49% 1% 82% 55% 44% 1%
Share 100% 51.20% 47.62% 1.18% 100% 48.38% 50.44% 1.18% 100% 53.56% 45.44% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 62.62 58.24 1.44 122.30 59.17 61.69 1.44 125.74 67.35 57.14 1.26
WHEN DECIDED
Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other
Today 6% 53% 40% 7% 5%* 52% 45% 3% 6% 75% 24% 1%
3days 3% 53% 41% 6% 4%* 55% 42% 3% 3% 72% 27% 1%
7days 2% 48% 50% 2% 2% 48% 51% 1% 2% 57% 42% 1%
30days 10% 60% 38% 2% 10% 54% 44% 2% 10% 61% 38% 1%
Over30 79% 50% 50% 0% 79% 46% 53% 1% 79% 50% 49% 1%
Share 100% 51.23% 47.93% 0.84% 100% 47.50% 51.22% 1.28% 100% 53.40% 45.60% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 62.65 58.62 1.03 122.30 58.09 62.64 1.57 125.74 67.15 57.34 1.26
COMMUNITY
BigCity 13% 64% 36% 0% 13% 61% 39% 0% 13% 72% 27% 1%
SmalCty 18% 52% 46% 2% 18% 49% 49% 2% 18% 56% 43% 1%
Suburbs 45% 49% 49% 2% 45% 47% 52% 1% 45% 51% 48% 1%
SmalTwn 8% 51% 47% 2% 8% 48% 50% 2% 8% 52% 47% 1%
Rural 16% 42% 57% 1% 16% 40% 59% 1% 16% 43% 56% 1%
Share 100% 50.53% 47.89% 1.58% 100% 48.14% 50.73% 1.13% 100% 53.43% 45.57% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 61.80 58.57 1.93 122.30 58.87 62.04 1.38 125.74 67.18 57.30 1.26
COMMUNITY
Urban 31% 59% 40% 1% 31% 54% 45% 1% 31% 62% 37% 1%
Suburbs 45% 50% 49% 1% 45% 47% 52% 1% 45% 51% 48% 1%
Sm/Rural24% 45% 54% 1% 24% 42% 57% 1% 24% 47% 52% 1%
Share 100% 51.59% 47.41% 1.00% 100% 47.97% 51.03% 1.00% 100% 53.45% 45.55% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 63.09 57.98 1.22 122.30 58.66 62.41 1.22 125.74 67.21 57.27 1.26
BUSH APPROVAL
Approve 51% 11% 88% 1% 53%* 9% 90% 1% 48% 11% 88% 1%
Dissapr 49% 93% 5% 2% 47%* 93% 6% 1% 52% 93% 5% 2%
Share 100% 51.18% 47.33% 1.49% 100% 48.48% 50.52% 1.00% 100% 53.64% 44.84% 1.52%
Votes 122.3 62.59 57.88 1.82 122.3 59.29 61.78 1.22 125.74 67.45 56.38 1.91
TruthIsAll
Dec. 9, 2009
The purpose of this post is to lay out the evidence which disproves “false recall”, the final argument that has been promoted to cast doubt on the preliminary 2004 National Exit Poll (NEP) in which Kerry was a 51-48% winner. The unadjusted aggregate state exit polls had Kerry winning by 52-47%
The premise of false recall is that the mathematically impossible 43/37% returning Bush/Gore voter share in the Final 2004 National Exit Poll was due to returning Gore voters misstating their past vote. The Final NEP was forced to match the 51-48% recorded Bush win.
The Final NEP is mathematically impossible since the number of returning Bush voters implied by the 43% weighting is 52.6 million (122.3 million votes were recorded in 2004). Bush only had 50.46 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died, therefore the number of returning Bush voters must have been less than 48 million. Assuming 98% turnout, there were 47 million returning Bush voters, 5.6 million fewer than implied by the Final NEP.
Based on 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry wins by 10m votes with 53.2% - assuming equal 98% turnout of returning Bush and Gore voters. He wins by 7 million given 98/90% Bush/Gore turnout. Total votes cast in 2000 and 2004 are used to calculate returning and new voters.
Only 1368 respondents were asked their PAST 2000 vote but ALL exit poll respondents were asked whom the JUST voted for in 2004. The Kerry trend was consistent at the 7:33pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047) time lines. Kerry gained 1085 votes and Bush 1025 from 7:33 to 12:22/ Third-parties declined by 90 due to the 4% to 3% change in share of the electorate.
False recall is disproved in a number of ways.
1. False recall is based on a subset (3168) of the Final NEP 13660 respondents who were asked how they voted in 2000. But all 13660 were asked whom they JUST voted for in 2004.
2. The Preliminary 12:22am NEP consisted of 3025 of the total 3168 respondents who were asked how they voted in 2000. The weighted result indicated that returning Bush voters comprised 41% (50.1m) of the electorate. The Final NEP "Voted in 2000" crosstab (as well as all other crosstabs) was forced to match the recorded vote. To do this required that 43% (52.6m) of the electorate be returning Bush voters. The change from 41% to 43% was based on just 143 additional respondents (from 3025 to 3168).
a) There was an impossible late switch in respondent totals. Between 7:33pm and 12:22am, the trend was consistent: Kerry gained 254 votes, Bush 239. Third-parties declined by 13. But between 12:22am and the Final, Kerry's total declined by 13, Bush gained 182 and third party lost 26.
b) It was also impossible that returning Bush voters would increase from 41% to 43% (122) and returning Gore voters would decline from 39% to 37% (8). Regardless, the Final 43/37% split was mathematically impossible. It implied there were 5.6 million more returning Bush voters than could have voted, assuming that 47 (98%) of the 48 million who were alive turned out.
c) The increase in Bush's share of new voters from 41% to 45% (+31) was impossible; there were just 24 additional new voters. Kerry lost 2.
d) The changes in the Gender demographic were impossible. The Kerry trend was consistent at the 11027 and 13047 respondent time lines. Kerry gained 1085 and Bush 1025. Third-parties declined by 90.
e) There was an impossible shift to Bush among the final 613 respondents (from 13047 to 13660). Kerry’s total declined by 99, while Bush gained 706. Third-parties gained 6. That could not have happened unless weights and vote shares were adjusted by a human. In other words, it could not have been the result of an actual sample.
3. False recall assumes that 43/37% was a sampled result. But we have just shown that it is mathematically impossible because a) it implies there were 5.6 million more returning Bush voters than could have voted in 2004 and b) the 41/39% split at 12:22am could not have changed to 43/37% in the Final with just 143 additional respondents in the "Voted 2000" category.
4. The exit pollsters claim that it is standard operating procedure to force the exit poll to match the recorded vote. The Final was forced to match the recorded vote by a) adjusting the returning Bush/Gore voter mix to an impossible 43/37% and b)simultaneously increasing the Bush shares of returning Bush, Gore and new voters to implausible levels using impossible adjustments.
5. Just reviewing the time line, it is obvious that the exit pollsters do in fact adjust weights and vote shares to force a match the recorded vote. It's SOP. But it immediately invalidates the naysayer claim that the 43/37 split was due to Gore voter false recall. No, it was due to exit poll data manipulation.
6. Which is more believable: a) that the exit pollsters followed the standard procedure of forcing the poll to match the vote, or b) that at least 8% more returning Gore voters claimed they voted for Bush in 2000 than returning Bush voters claimed they voted for Gore?
7. As indicated above, there was a maximum number of returning Bush 2000 voters who could have voted in 2004: the ones who were still living. So the 43/37% split is not only impossible, it is also irrelevant. It doesn’t matter what the returning voters said regarding their 2000 vote. We already know the four-year voter mortality rate (5%) and maximum LIVING voter turnout (98%).
8. False recall assumes that the returning voter mix is a sampled result. But the 4% increase in differential between returning Bush and Gore voters (from 2% to 6%) is impossible since the total number of respondents increased by just 143 (from 3025 to 3168).
9. The false recall claim is based on NES surveys of 500-600 respondents that indicate voters misstate past votes. But the reported deviations are based on the prior recorded vote – not the True Vote. There have been an average of 7 million net uncounted votes in each of the last eleven elections. The majority (70-80%) were Democratic. In 2000, there were 5.4 million. When measured against the True Vote (whi is based on total votes cast, reduced by mortality and voter turnout), the average deviations are near zero. Therefore, the NES respondents told the truth about their past vote.
10. The 2006 and 2008 Final National Exit Polls were forced to match the recorded vote with impossible 49/43% and 46/37% returning Bush/Kerry voter percentages. The 2008 Final required 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. These anomalies are just additional proof that false recall is totally bogus – a final “Hail Mary” pass to divert, confuse and cover-up the truth. The exit pollsters just did what they are paid to do:
FORCE THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE EVEN IF THE CHANGES ARE IMPLAUSIBLE OR MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE.
Note:
All demographic category cross tabs required changes to the weights and/or the vote shares in order to force a match to the recorded vote. Categories which required changes to weights AND vote shares include: Party-ID, Voted 2000, Bush Approval, Region, Education, Income, Ideology, When Decided.
The following categories required changes ONLY to the vote shares: Gender, Race and Gender, Age, Military Service, Community Size,
The Final NEP vote shares and/or weights for Party-ID, Voted 2000, Bush Approval and When Decided do not agree with other data sources:
-Bush approval: was 48% based on the average of 11 final pre-election polls. With 48% Bush approval and preliminary vote shares, Kerry has a 53.6% total share.
-Party-ID: was 39/35% Dem/Rep based on other studies.
-Voted 2000: The 43/37% Bush/Gore weighting mix was mathematically impossible.
-When Decided: Kerry and Bush were tied in the polls one month prior to the election. The Final indicates that Bush led by 7 points.
2004 National Exit Poll
Voted in 2000
7:33pm 2545 respondents 80.3% of 3168
Voted in Respondents Share Respondents Vote
MoE 2000 Mix Total Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
1.9% DNV 17% 433 - 59% 39% 2% 255 169 9
1.1% Gore 38% 967 - 91% 8% 1% 880 77 10
1.1% Bush 41% 1043 - 9% 90% 1% 94 939 10
1.9% Other 4% 102 - 65% 13% 22% 66 13 22
1.9% Total 2545 - 50.90% 47.09% 2.01% 1295 1198 51
12:22am 3025 respondents 95.5% of 3168
MoE Voted Mix Total Change Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
1.8% DNV 17% 514 82 57% 41% 2% 293 211 10
1.0% Gore 39% 1180 213 91% 8% 1% 1074 94 12
1.1% Bush 41% 1240 197 10% 90% 0% 124 1116 0
1.7% Other 3% 91 -11 64% 17% 19% 58 15 17
1.8% Total 3025 480 51.20% 47.50% 1.30% 1549 1437 39
Change from 7:33pm 480 52.79% 49.67% -2.46% 254 239 -12
Final 3168 respondents (forced to match the recorded vote)
Mix Total Change Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 17% 539 24 54% 45% 1% 291 242 5
Gore 37% 1172 -8 90% 10% 0% 1055 117 0
Bush 43% 1362 122 9% 91% 0% 123 1240 0
Other 3% 95 4 71% 21% 8% 67 20 8
Total 3168 143 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 1536 1619 13
Change from 12:22am 143 -9.1% 127.5% -18.4% -13 182 -26
Change from 7:33pm 623 38.6% 67.5% -6.1% 240 421 -38
The Gender Demographic
2004 National Exit Poll
7:33pm 11027 respondents (80.7%)
MoE 11027 Mix Total Change Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
0.93% Female 54% 5955 - 53% 45% 2% 3156 2680 119
0.93% Male 46% 5072 - 47% 51% 2% 2384 2587 101
Total 11027 - 50.24% 47.76% 2.00% 5540 5266 221
12:22am 13047 respondents (95.5%)
MoE Gender Mix Total Change Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
0.86% Female 54% 7045 1091 54% 45% 1% 3805 3170 70
0.86% Male 46% 6002 929 47% 52% 1% 2821 3121 60
Total 13047 2020 50.78% 48.22% 1.00% 6626 6291 130
Change from 7:33pm 2020 53.73% 50.73% -4.46% 1086 1025 -90
Final 13660 respondents
MoE Gender Mix Total Change Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
0.84% Female 54% 7376 331 51% 48% 1% 3762 3541 74
0.83% Male 46% 6284 282 44% 55% 1% 2765 3456 63
Total 13660 613 47.78% 51.22% 1.0% 6527 6997 137
Change from 12:22am 613 -16.1% 115.1% 1.0% -99 706 7
Change from 7:33pm 2633 37.5% 65.7% -3.2% 987 1731 -84
Recursive True Vote Model
True Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 2004 Vote Share
2000 2000 2000 2004 2004 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - - - - 22.6 17.9 57 41 2
Gore 50.5% 56.0 51.0 53.2 52.1 52.1 41.5 91 8 1
Bush 45.8% 50.8 50.5 48.2 47.3 47.3 37.6 10 90 0
Other 3.7% 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.0 64 17 19
Total 110.8 105.4 105.3 103.2 125.7 Share 53.6 45.0 1.3
Vote 67.4 56.6 1.7
Recorded Share 48.3 50.7 1.0
Vote 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2
PRELIMINARY FINAL TRUE VOTE
Nov. 3, 12:22am, 13047 respondents Nov. 3, 2:04pm, 13660 respondents
Forced to match recorded vote
48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
CATEGORY Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
Average 50.83% 47.92% 1.25% 47.94% 51.11% 0.96% 53.41% 45.56% 1.03%
Total Votes 62.16 58.60 1.53 58.62 62.50 1.17 67.15 57.30 1.29
Gender 50.78% 48.22% 1.00% 47.78% 51.22% 1.00% 53.24% 45.76% 1.00%
Party-ID 51.07% 47.85% 1.08% 47.89% 51.22% 0.89% 53.34% 45.66% 1.00%
Voted 2000 51.43% 47.60% 0.97% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 53.33% 45.35% 1.32%
Region 50.53% 47.95% 1.52% 48.24% 51.08% 0.68% 53.43% 45.57% 1.00%
Education 50.43% 48.18% 1.39% 47.82% 51.24% 0.94% 53.53% 45.47% 1.00%
Race 50.98% 47.61% 1.41% 47.81% 50.99% 1.20% 53.34% 45.66% 1.00%
Age 50.26% 47.69% 2.05% 47.96% 51.28% 0.76% 53.36% 45.64% 1.00%
Income 51.07% 47.75% 1.18% 48.13% 51.02% 0.85% 53.45% 45.55% 1.00%
Ideology 50.18% 48.60% 1.22% 47.25% 51.54% 1.21% 53.51% 45.49% 1.00%
Religion 50.78% 48.01% 1.21% 47.99% 50.94% 1.07% 53.39% 45.61% 1.00%
Military 51.20% 47.62% 1.18% 48.38% 50.44% 1.18% 53.56% 45.44% 1.00%
Decided 51.23% 47.93% 0.84% 47.50% 51.22% 1.28% 53.40% 45.60% 1.00%
Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other
GENDER
Male 46.0% 47% 52% 1% 46% 44% 55% 1% 46.0% 50.0% 49.0% 1.0%
Fem 54.0% 54% 45% 1% 54% 51% 48% 1% 54.0% 56.0% 43.0% 1.0%
Share 100% 50.78% 48.22% 1.00% 100% 47.78% 51.22% 1.00% 100% 53.24% 45.76% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 62.10 58.97 1.22 122.30 58.43 62.64 1.22 125.74 66.94 57.54 1.26
PARTY ID
Dem 38% 91% 9% 0% 37%* 89% 11% 0% 38% 92% 7% 1%
Rep 35% 7% 93% 0% 37%* 6% 93% 1% 35% 7% 92% 1%
Ind 27% 52% 44% 4% 26% 49% 49% 2% 27% 59% 40% 1%
Share 100% 51.07% 47.85% 1.08% 100% 47.89% 51.22% 0.89% 100% 53.34% 45.66% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 62.46 58.52 1.32 122.30 58.57 62.64 1.09 125.74 67.07 57.41 1.26
VOTED IN 2000
New 11% 55% 43% 2%
DNV 6% 61% 37% 2% 17% 54% 45% 1% 17% 60% 38% 2%
Gore 39% 91% 8% 1% 37%* 90% 10% 0% 41% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 41% 10% 90% 0% 43%* 9% 91% 0% 39% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3% 71% 21% 8% 3% 71% 21% 8% 3% 64% 17% 19%
Share 100% 51.43% 47.60% 0.97% 100% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 100% 53.33% 45.35% 1.32%
Votes 122.30 62.90 58.21 1.19 122.30 59.29 62.50 0.50 125.74 67.06 57.02 1.66
REGION
East 22% 58% 41% 1% 22% 56% 43% 1% 22% 61% 38% 1%
Midw 26% 50% 49% 1% 26% 48% 51% 1% 26% 53% 46% 1%
South 31% 44% 54% 2% 32%* 42% 58% 0% 31% 46% 53% 1%
West 21% 53% 45% 2% 20%* 50% 49% 1% 21% 57% 42% 1%
Share 100% 50.53% 47.95% 1.52% 100% 48.24% 51.08% 0.68% 100% 53.43% 45.57% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 61.80 58.64 1.86 122.30 59.00 62.47 0.83 125.74 67.18 57.30 1.26
EDUCATION
Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other
oHS 4% 53% 46% 1% 4% 50% 49% 1% 4% 53% 46% 1%
HSG 22% 50% 48% 2% 22% 47% 52% 1% 22% 54% 45% 1%
College 31% 48% 51% 1% 32%* 46% 54% 0% 31% 51% 48% 1%
ColGrd 26% 49% 50% 1% 26% 46% 52% 2% 26% 52% 47% 1%
PostGrd 17% 57% 41% 2% 16%* 55% 44% 1% 17% 60% 39% 1%
Share 100% 50.43% 48.18% 1.39% 100% 47.82% 51.24% 0.94% 100% 53.53% 45.47% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 61.67 58.92 1.70 122.30 58.48 62.66 1.15 125.74 67.31 57.17 1.26
RACE AND GENDER
WMale 36% 40% 59% 1% 36% 37% 62% 1% 36% 43% 56% 1%
WFem 41% 47% 51% 2% 41% 44% 55% 1% 41% 49% 50% 1%
NwMale 10% 73% 26% 1% 10% 67% 30% 3% 10% 75% 24% 1%
NwFem 13% 77% 22% 1% 13% 75% 24% 1% 13% 79% 20% 1%
Share 100% 50.98% 47.61% 1.41% 100% 47.81% 50.99% 1.20% 100% 53.34% 45.66% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 62.35 58.22 1.72 122.30 58.47 62.36 1.47 125.74 67.07 57.41 1.26
AGE
18-29 17% 56% 42% 2% 17% 54% 45% 1% 17% 61% 38% 1%
30-44 29% 48% 49% 3% 29% 46% 53% 1% 29% 51% 48% 1%
45-59 30% 51% 47% 2% 30% 48% 51% 1% 30% 54% 45% 1%
60+ 24% 48% 51% 1% 24% 46% 54% 0% 24% 50% 49% 1%
Share 100% 50.26% 47.69% 2.05% 100% 47.96% 51.28% 0.76% 100% 53.36% 45.64% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 61.47 58.32 2.51 122.30 58.65 62.71 0.93 125.74 67.09 57.39 1.26
INCOME
0-15K 9% 65% 34% 1% 8%* 63% 36% 1% 9% 69% 30% 1%
15-30 15% 60% 39% 1% 15% 57% 42% 1% 15% 63% 36% 1%
30-50 22% 53% 46% 1% 22% 50% 49% 1% 22% 55% 44% 1%
50-75 23% 46% 53% 1% 23% 43% 56% 1% 23% 48% 51% 1%
75-100 13% 48% 51% 1% 14%* 45% 55% 0% 13% 49% 50% 1%
100-150 11% 43% 55% 2% 11% 42% 57% 1% 11% 48% 51% 1%
150-200 4% 43% 55% 2% 4% 42% 58% 0% 4% 45% 54% 1%
200+ 3% 43% 55% 2% 3% 35% 63% 2% 3% 40% 59% 1%
Share 100% 51.07% 47.75% 1.18% 100% 48.13% 51.02% 0.85% 100% 53.45% 45.55% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 62.46 58.40 1.44 122.30 58.86 62.39 1.04 125.74 67.21 57.27 1.26
IDEOLOGY
Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other
Lib 22% 86% 12% 2% 21%* 85% 13% 2% 22% 92% 7% 1%
Mod 45% 57% 42% 1% 45% 54% 45% 1% 45% 60% 39% 1%
Con 33% 17% 82% 1% 34%* 15% 84% 1% 33% 19% 80% 1%
Share 100% 50.18% 48.60% 1.22% 100% 47.25% 51.54% 1.21% 100% 53.51% 45.49% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 61.37 59.44 1.49 122.30 57.78 63.03 1.48 125.74 67.28 57.20 1.26
RELIGION
Prot 53% 43% 56% 1% 53% 40% 59% 1% 53% 45% 54% 1%
Cath 27% 50% 49% 1% 27% 47% 52% 1% 27% 53% 46% 1%
Jewish 3% 78% 22% 0% 3% 74% 25% 1% 3% 79% 20% 1%
Other 7% 75% 22% 3% 7% 74% 24% 2% 7% 78% 21% 1%
None 10% 69% 29% 2% 10% 67% 32% 1% 10% 74% 25% 1%
Share 100% 50.78% 48.01% 1.21% 100% 47.99% 50.94% 1.07% 100% 53.39% 45.61% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 62.10 58.71 1.48 122.30 58.69 62.30 1.31 125.74 67.13 57.35 1.26
MILITARY
Yes 18% 43% 55% 2% 18% 41% 57% 2% 18% 47% 52% 1%
No 82% 53% 46% 1% 82% 50% 49% 1% 82% 55% 44% 1%
Share 100% 51.20% 47.62% 1.18% 100% 48.38% 50.44% 1.18% 100% 53.56% 45.44% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 62.62 58.24 1.44 122.30 59.17 61.69 1.44 125.74 67.35 57.14 1.26
WHEN DECIDED
Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other
Today 6% 53% 40% 7% 5%* 52% 45% 3% 6% 75% 24% 1%
3days 3% 53% 41% 6% 4%* 55% 42% 3% 3% 72% 27% 1%
7days 2% 48% 50% 2% 2% 48% 51% 1% 2% 57% 42% 1%
30days 10% 60% 38% 2% 10% 54% 44% 2% 10% 61% 38% 1%
Over30 79% 50% 50% 0% 79% 46% 53% 1% 79% 50% 49% 1%
Share 100% 51.23% 47.93% 0.84% 100% 47.50% 51.22% 1.28% 100% 53.40% 45.60% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 62.65 58.62 1.03 122.30 58.09 62.64 1.57 125.74 67.15 57.34 1.26
COMMUNITY
BigCity 13% 64% 36% 0% 13% 61% 39% 0% 13% 72% 27% 1%
SmalCty 18% 52% 46% 2% 18% 49% 49% 2% 18% 56% 43% 1%
Suburbs 45% 49% 49% 2% 45% 47% 52% 1% 45% 51% 48% 1%
SmalTwn 8% 51% 47% 2% 8% 48% 50% 2% 8% 52% 47% 1%
Rural 16% 42% 57% 1% 16% 40% 59% 1% 16% 43% 56% 1%
Share 100% 50.53% 47.89% 1.58% 100% 48.14% 50.73% 1.13% 100% 53.43% 45.57% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 61.80 58.57 1.93 122.30 58.87 62.04 1.38 125.74 67.18 57.30 1.26
COMMUNITY
Urban 31% 59% 40% 1% 31% 54% 45% 1% 31% 62% 37% 1%
Suburbs 45% 50% 49% 1% 45% 47% 52% 1% 45% 51% 48% 1%
Sm/Rural24% 45% 54% 1% 24% 42% 57% 1% 24% 47% 52% 1%
Share 100% 51.59% 47.41% 1.00% 100% 47.97% 51.03% 1.00% 100% 53.45% 45.55% 1.00%
Votes 122.30 63.09 57.98 1.22 122.30 58.66 62.41 1.22 125.74 67.21 57.27 1.26
BUSH APPROVAL
Approve 51% 11% 88% 1% 53%* 9% 90% 1% 48% 11% 88% 1%
Dissapr 49% 93% 5% 2% 47%* 93% 6% 1% 52% 93% 5% 2%
Share 100% 51.18% 47.33% 1.49% 100% 48.48% 50.52% 1.00% 100% 53.64% 44.84% 1.52%
Votes 122.3 62.59 57.88 1.82 122.3 59.29 61.78 1.22 125.74 67.45 56.38 1.91