blindpig
10-25-2013, 04:55 PM
Election may open door to Communists
Left-wing ČSSD expected to win but will need partners to rule
Czechs are heading to the polls Oct. 25-26 to elect a government for the first time since the previous right-wing ruling party collapsed in scandal last June. And the election is shaping up to be one of the most interesting since the fall of communism in 1989.
Taking place under a cloud of cynicism, a once easily called election is now relatively tight. In a country tired of politics and seemingly constant corruption, voting patterns are also shifting. And regardless of the outcome, analysts say the election means a monumental shift in Czech politics and the fall of the Czech right.
The Social Democrats (ČSSD) are the likely winners, but despite victory, who they will lean on for secondary support in government remains the biggest question.
ČSSD is the frontrunner going into the election with around 25 percent support in the polls. But that figure is down from a high of round 33 percent just a month ago. ČSSD is still expected to win the most votes, but the sagging numbers mean the party will not be able to form a government on its own, something the party thought possible just weeks ago.
If the party cannot garner 33 percent of the votes, it could open the door for the Communists to wield influence for the first time since 1989, a scenario made possible by an angry population and the disillusionment of former right-wing voters.
The Communists Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSČM) is currently polling in second place at 17 percent and is seen as a likely governing partner by some. In third place is the surprise dark horse party Ano started by billionaire Andrej Babiš. Ano is also an option for ČSSD, although that scenario is not as likely as a KSČM partnership.
"My prediction is a left-wing government of ČSSD and the Communist Party," said Milan Znoj, a political scientist at Charles University. He said it is a scenario that will give the Communists more influence than they have had since the 1989 revolution.
"A second possibility is ČSSD and Ano in cooperation with the Communists." Znoj said. He said neither is a scenario ČSSD really wants.
As for Ano, he called the party's success "a great surprise." The party had just 3 percent of the vote in August is now at 16 percent. Much of Ano's success is attributed to a campaign budget of close to 300 million Kč. There is also a desire by many voters to cast a vote for any party that is new and different. "They ran the most successful campaign," Znoj said.
The most interesting aspect to perhaps the most interesting election in modern Czech history is what Znoj described as the collapse of the right-wing parties. "The right wing led the transformation to democracy, and now they are fading away," he said.
Ano, for instance, was able to steal of much of the right's traditional support base. That fall from grace, Znoj said, is not just a reaction to the corruption scandal this summer that brought down the government of the Civic Democrats (ODS) and Prime Minister Petr Nečas, the cause of tomorrow's early elections.
"It is a process that has been happening for some time," he said. "People are dissatisfied. ODS is no more"
Political scientist Anna Matušková agreed that the old parties, particularly on the right, are in serious trouble, a trend that is happening across Europe. But she also cautioned against putting too much emphasis on poll numbers and said she does not rule out a surprise come Saturday, meaning Ano. "In every election since 2006 the poll numbers have been wrong," she said.
Matušková said it will be interesting to see if the Christian Democrats will make the 5 percent threshold and what will happen to ODS. She does think ČSSD will receive the most votes, but how a new government will take shape will be more about backroom deals than who came in second place.
For instance, she mentioned, ČSSD has an official policy dating back years that the party would never form a coalition with the Communists. She said it would be revolutionary if they did so now. That likely leaves Ano in a good position to form a new government, although ČSSD has also said they would not work with Ano.
"We will know on Saturday," Matušková said. "The Babis party (Ano) has been taking away votes from all sides." That means, she explained, that no one is going to publicly voice support for working with Ano. "When the campaign stops the real stuff starts," she said.
Of course, the largest influence on how the new government will be formed is President Miloš Zeman. The president will have the final say on any coalition and will ultimately pick the winners, although Zeman has said that the winning party will be asked to form a government. It is whom they want to work with that could get tricky.
The parties will have a month to conduct negotiations and establish alliances. Some pundits have already said that if the election outcome corresponds to the forecasts, another early election will follow soon.
Another factor that comes into play is the votes of Czech citizens who are temporarily or permanently living abroad, which may also impact what kind of government will be formed.
According to newspaper Lidové noviny, some 8,000 Czechs in other countries are to participate in the elections, almost 2,000 more than in the previous polls in 2010. The votes of Czech expatriates considerably influenced the results of the 2010 elections and contributed to the formation of a center-right coalition government with a comfortable majority in the Chamber of Deputies.
Election results will be available around 6 p.m. on Oct. 26, or four hours after the polling stations close. Initial results could be known within half an hour of the close of polling stations at 2 p.m.
Only after that will the country have a better idea what the next chapter holds.
http://www.praguepost.com/news/17342-election-may-open-door-to-communists.html
Tricky business, let's hope they keep their heads on straight.
Left-wing ČSSD expected to win but will need partners to rule
Czechs are heading to the polls Oct. 25-26 to elect a government for the first time since the previous right-wing ruling party collapsed in scandal last June. And the election is shaping up to be one of the most interesting since the fall of communism in 1989.
Taking place under a cloud of cynicism, a once easily called election is now relatively tight. In a country tired of politics and seemingly constant corruption, voting patterns are also shifting. And regardless of the outcome, analysts say the election means a monumental shift in Czech politics and the fall of the Czech right.
The Social Democrats (ČSSD) are the likely winners, but despite victory, who they will lean on for secondary support in government remains the biggest question.
ČSSD is the frontrunner going into the election with around 25 percent support in the polls. But that figure is down from a high of round 33 percent just a month ago. ČSSD is still expected to win the most votes, but the sagging numbers mean the party will not be able to form a government on its own, something the party thought possible just weeks ago.
If the party cannot garner 33 percent of the votes, it could open the door for the Communists to wield influence for the first time since 1989, a scenario made possible by an angry population and the disillusionment of former right-wing voters.
The Communists Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSČM) is currently polling in second place at 17 percent and is seen as a likely governing partner by some. In third place is the surprise dark horse party Ano started by billionaire Andrej Babiš. Ano is also an option for ČSSD, although that scenario is not as likely as a KSČM partnership.
"My prediction is a left-wing government of ČSSD and the Communist Party," said Milan Znoj, a political scientist at Charles University. He said it is a scenario that will give the Communists more influence than they have had since the 1989 revolution.
"A second possibility is ČSSD and Ano in cooperation with the Communists." Znoj said. He said neither is a scenario ČSSD really wants.
As for Ano, he called the party's success "a great surprise." The party had just 3 percent of the vote in August is now at 16 percent. Much of Ano's success is attributed to a campaign budget of close to 300 million Kč. There is also a desire by many voters to cast a vote for any party that is new and different. "They ran the most successful campaign," Znoj said.
The most interesting aspect to perhaps the most interesting election in modern Czech history is what Znoj described as the collapse of the right-wing parties. "The right wing led the transformation to democracy, and now they are fading away," he said.
Ano, for instance, was able to steal of much of the right's traditional support base. That fall from grace, Znoj said, is not just a reaction to the corruption scandal this summer that brought down the government of the Civic Democrats (ODS) and Prime Minister Petr Nečas, the cause of tomorrow's early elections.
"It is a process that has been happening for some time," he said. "People are dissatisfied. ODS is no more"
Political scientist Anna Matušková agreed that the old parties, particularly on the right, are in serious trouble, a trend that is happening across Europe. But she also cautioned against putting too much emphasis on poll numbers and said she does not rule out a surprise come Saturday, meaning Ano. "In every election since 2006 the poll numbers have been wrong," she said.
Matušková said it will be interesting to see if the Christian Democrats will make the 5 percent threshold and what will happen to ODS. She does think ČSSD will receive the most votes, but how a new government will take shape will be more about backroom deals than who came in second place.
For instance, she mentioned, ČSSD has an official policy dating back years that the party would never form a coalition with the Communists. She said it would be revolutionary if they did so now. That likely leaves Ano in a good position to form a new government, although ČSSD has also said they would not work with Ano.
"We will know on Saturday," Matušková said. "The Babis party (Ano) has been taking away votes from all sides." That means, she explained, that no one is going to publicly voice support for working with Ano. "When the campaign stops the real stuff starts," she said.
Of course, the largest influence on how the new government will be formed is President Miloš Zeman. The president will have the final say on any coalition and will ultimately pick the winners, although Zeman has said that the winning party will be asked to form a government. It is whom they want to work with that could get tricky.
The parties will have a month to conduct negotiations and establish alliances. Some pundits have already said that if the election outcome corresponds to the forecasts, another early election will follow soon.
Another factor that comes into play is the votes of Czech citizens who are temporarily or permanently living abroad, which may also impact what kind of government will be formed.
According to newspaper Lidové noviny, some 8,000 Czechs in other countries are to participate in the elections, almost 2,000 more than in the previous polls in 2010. The votes of Czech expatriates considerably influenced the results of the 2010 elections and contributed to the formation of a center-right coalition government with a comfortable majority in the Chamber of Deputies.
Election results will be available around 6 p.m. on Oct. 26, or four hours after the polling stations close. Initial results could be known within half an hour of the close of polling stations at 2 p.m.
Only after that will the country have a better idea what the next chapter holds.
http://www.praguepost.com/news/17342-election-may-open-door-to-communists.html
Tricky business, let's hope they keep their heads on straight.