Oregon Mail-in Ballots vs. New York Levers: 2000-2008

TruthIsAll

April 11, 2010

As a battleground state, one can expect that Oregon would closely match the will of the national electorate. Since Oregon votes 100% by mail and paper ballot precincts had the lowest (2%) discrepancies from the recorded vote, we can hypothesize that Oregon closely approximates the True National Vote share. In fact, Oregon's recorded vote share closely approximated the True National Vote in 2000, 2004 and 2008. But unlike the other battleground and strong Democratic states which saw Bush increase his recorded vote share from 2000, Bush lost share in Oregon.

In 1992 Oregon had a 13.6% exit poll discrepancy. In 1996, it had a 10% uncounted vote rate. These anomalies may have had something to do with the 1998 decision to switch to all mail-in ballots.

In 2000, Gore won Oregon by 47.0-46.5%. He won by 48.4-47.9% nationwide. According to the 2000 Census, there were 5.4 million net uncounted votes. The majority (70-80% ) of uncounted votes are Democratic.

If Gore had 75% (4.0 million) of the uncounted votes, his True Vote margin (based on total votes cast) was 55.0-51.9 million (49.6-46.8%) - a virtual match to his 49.4-46.9% aggregate state exit poll margin.

Do you agree that these results indicate that Oregon closely reflects the national electorate?

In 2004, Kerry won Oregon by 51.4-47.2%. Bush won the national recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%.
Oregon voters were surveyed by telephone. The discrepancy from the recorded vote was 1.8%.
In the other 14 battleground states, the average exit poll discrepancy (WPD) was a whopping 7.5%.

Is it just a coincidence that Bush’s 2004 Oregon mail-in ballot vote share (with its mandated random audit) declined from his 2000 share while his vote shares increased in Democratic and battleground states with unverifiable DRE and mechanical vote counts and no mandated audit of optical scan ballots?

Regarding the 2004 election, which do you believe?
a) Oregon’s vote share confirms the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (Kerry 52.0-Bush 47.0%) or
b) The recorded national share (Bush by 50.7- 48.3%) accurately reflected the True share (i.e. there was little or no fraud).
If you believe a), then you must also believe that Kerry must have done better than Gore nationwide and easily won the election.

One would logically expect Kerryto do better than Gore in highly Democratic New York State. But that was not the case.
Kerry won NY by 18% (58-40%). Gore won by 25% (60-35%).
But Kerry won the NY exit poll by 30% (64-34%).

Do you believe the NY recorded vote or the exit poll?

Considering the results from 2000 and 2004, do you believe that Obama’s 56.7% recorded Oregon share was a close match to his national
a) True Vote Model 58.0% share or
b) recorded 52.9% share?

If you believe a) then you must also believe that massive fraud cut Obama’s margin by 13.0 million votes (from 22.5 to 9.5).

Consider the following facts:

1. In 2000, Gore won Oregon by 47.0-46.5%, matching his 48.4-47.9% national (51.0-50.456 million) vote margin. The national aggregate of the unadjusted state exit polls indicated that Gore won by 49.4-46.9% (52.6-49.4 million). View the Election Calculator HistWPE worksheet.
2. In 2004, Kerry exceeded Gore’s margin in Oregon by 3.7% (51.4-47.2%), closely matching the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (52.0-47%).
3. Kerry won the exit pollster’s Oregon telephone survey by 52.3-46.3%, a slight 1.8% discrepancy from the state recorded vote.

4. Kerry won the national aggregate unadjusted state exit polls by 52.0-47.0%, a 1.0% margin discrepancy from the telephone survey.
5. In 14 battleground states, the average WPD was a whopping 7.5%. In Oregon, the survey equivalent was just 1.8%.
6. According to the 7:33pm National Exit Poll, Kerry won returning Nader 2000 voters 65-13% over Bush. After allocation of the Nader 2000 share, Gore’s margin becomes 50.6-48.4%, compared to Kerry’s 52.0-47.0% unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (national) margin.

7. In 2008, Obama won Oregon by 56.7-40.4%. The True Vote model indicated he had 57.1% - a virtual match. Obama’s National True share was 58.0%, but his recorded share was just 52.9%. One would expect that Obama’s recorded Oregon share would closely match his national share.

To summarize, Oregon matched the 2000 national recorded vote and within 2% of the aggregate exit poll. It closely matched the 2004 national exit poll but was far from the recorded vote. In 2008, Oregon closely matched the True Vote model, but the unadjusted state exit polls have not been released by the MSM.

Now let’s consider New York.

In 2000, Gore won the state by 25% (60.2-35.2%). In 2004, Kerry’s recorded margin declined to 18.3% (58.4-40.1%). But Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 64.5-34.0%, a 12.2% WPD. Why the sharp reversal of fortune?

Consider the largest counties in Oregon and New York, Multnomah (OR) and Kings (NY):
Gore won Multnomah by 63.5-28.2%. Kerry won it by 71.6-27.4%, an 8.9% HIGHER margin.
Gore won Kings County (Brooklyn) by 74.7-15.0%. Kerry won it by 74.2-22.8%, an 8.6% LOWER margin.

It’s an Urban Legend: Bush recorded vote share increased sharply from 2000 to 2004 in heavily Democratic urban areas but declined in rural locations, except for Oregon (the only 100% mail-in paper ballot state).

Consider that …
1) Oregon votes by mail and NY by lever machines.
2) In the last three elections, late NY Democratic (paper) vote shares were 7% higher than Election Day (lever) shares.
3) In 2004, the average paper ballot precinct WPD was 2% and 12% for levers.

4) Kerry’s margin was 3.7% higher than Gore’s in Oregon (a battleground state), but 6.7% lower in New York (a strong Democratic state).
5) Kerry exceeded Gore’s margin by 8.9% in Oregon’s largest county (Multnomah) but Gore exceeded Kerry by 8.6% in New York’s largest (Kings).

6) Oregon’s 1.8% vote discrepancy in the telephone survey was far less than the other 14 battleground states average 7.5% WPD.
7) Oregon closely matched the 2004 aggregate exit poll after allocating returning Nader voters to Kerry and Bush.

8) Oregon paper ballots are available for hand recounts (see 254.525, 258.211, comments).
New York votes are cast on levers, but counted on computers; there is no way to verify them.

9) Gore won NY by 60.2-35.2%. Allocating the 4.6% Nader/other vote, Kerry wins by 63-36% - assuming equal Gore/Bush defection.
10) According to the Preliminary National Exit Poll, before it was forced to match the vote count, 10% of returning Bush and 8% of returning Gore voters. defected. Assuming these rates, Kerry’s NY margin increased 2% to 64-35%, matching the unadjusted NY State Exit Poll.
11) Gore did slightly better than his 60.2% NY recorded share after allocating 180,000 net uncounted votes.

12) In the two elections in which Clinton was the incumbent, the NY exit polls had an average 0.6 WPD .
13) In the three elections in which a Bush was the incumbent, NY exit polls had an average 8.0 WPD.

14) Oregon voters don’t worry about insufficient precinct levers, machine failures, vote counts terminating at 99, stuck levers, long lines, intimidation by poll workers, and unverifiable vote counts.

If one ignores all of the above, there is every reason for New Yorkers to “love those levers” – except for this: Even if everyone who came to the polls voted and all the lever machines performed perfectly, the fact remains that votes are counted by proprietary computer software, not open source, which can easily be programmed to switch votes that may or may not have been entered accurately. Ay, there’s the rub.

In 2004, the exit pollsters reported that lever voting machine precincts had a 12% error (WPD) rate. Optical scanners and touch screens were 7%. Paper ballot precincts had the lowest (2%). Is the fog lifting? What happened in 2004 should be very clear by now.

In the 2008 NY primary, zero votes were originally reported for Obama in nearly eighty minority precincts. Many New Yorkers love the levers. They have been led to believe that because levers are not computers, they are not subject to vote-switching and therefore essentially fraud-free. But lever precinct totals are tabulated on central computers which can be programmed to switch votes. And there are no paper ballots to verify the count – except for late provisional and absentee ballots which comprise about 7% of votes cast.

It is interesting to note that in NY since 2000, the Democrats have done 7% better in late (paper) voting than on Election Day (levers). It is also remarkable that Kerry’s late NY vote share was within 0.2% of the unadjusted exit poll. Uncounted votes declined from 700,000 in 1988 to fewer than 200,000 in 2000 – but the trend reversed to over 300,000 in 2004.

In Oregon, the ballots are separated from the return envelope before they are inspected. This process ensures confidentiality. The votes are counted on Election Day. A record is kept showing each voter whose ballot has been returned. No expensive voting machines, no corrupted election officials, no long lines, no machine breakdowns. In 1996, over 10% of votes cast were uncounted, but the rate has declined sharply since the switch to mail in 1998.

Oregon mail-in ballots are counted electronically, but there is a paper trail if a hand recount is necessary. In New York, computers also do the counting based on reported Lever totals– but there are no paper ballots to check the count. Levers are used to cast, but not count votes. Lever advocates don’t want to talk about that.

No wonder Oregonians are happy with their voting system. Why don't the other 49 states follow suit? They should HAVA look at how Oregon saves a ton of money and how real democracy works.

Let's look at the recorded vote changes in the largest OR and NY counties.

OREGON
In Multnomah county:
Gore won by 63.5-28.2% (35.3%)
Kerry won by 71.6-27.4% (44.2% margin).
Kerry's margin exceeded Gore’s by 8.9%.

http://www.co.multnomah.or.us/dbcs/elections/election_information/voting_in_oregon.shtml

NEW YORK
Kings County (Brooklyn):
Gore won by 74.7-15.0% (59.7%)
Kerry won by 72.2-22.8% (49.6%).
Kerry's margin was 10.1% less than Gore’s.

Considering Multnomah, does this make sense?

NEW YORK
2000 Gore: 25% margin (60.2-35.2%)
2004 Kerry: 18.3% margin (58.4-40.1%)
Kerry's recorded margin DECLINED by 6.7%.

In 2004, there was a 12.2% Within Precinct Discrepancy between the unadjusted NY exit poll and the recorded vote:
Exit Poll: Kerry 64.5- Bush 34.0 (30.5% margin)
Recorded: Kerry 58.4- Bush 40.1 (18.3% margin)

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Oregon
(1) 2008 calculated True Vote in lieu of telephone survey
(2) 2004 WPD from telephone survey.
(3) Note that the OR margin matched the national recorded margin to within 0.1% in 1996, 2000 (Democratic incumbent) but deviated by an average of 8.4% in 1988, 1992, 2004, 2008 (Republican incumbent).

In 1996, 10.2% of votes cast were uncounted. The rate has declined sharply since the switch to mail ballots in 1998.

Votes Net OR Recorded 75/25% Adjusted Uncounted OR Unadj ExitP National Record OR-Nat
Cast Recorded Unctd Dem Rep Unctd Dem Rep WPD Dem Rep Dem Rep Margin(3)

2008 1845 1828 17 56.7% 40.4% 0.9% 56.9% 40.3% na 57.1% 40.4%(1)52.9% 45.6% 9.0%
2004 1924 1837 87 51.4 47.2 4.5 52.3 46.3 (1.8) 52.2 46.3(2) 48.3 50.7 6.6
2000 1529 1534 (5) 47.0 46.5 -0.3 47.1 46.3 na na na 48.4 47.9 0.0
1996 1534 1378 156 47.2 39.1 10.2 50.0 37.6 (2.4) 48.4 37.9 47.4 39.2 0.1
1992 1525 1463 62 42.5 32.5 4.1 43.8 32.2 (13.6) 49.3 25.7 43.0 37.4 4.4
1988 1293 1202 92 51.3 46.6 7.1 53.0 45.1 (7.4) 55.0 42.9 45.7 54.4 13.4


New York
Note: The declining trend in net uncounted votes was reversed in 2004.
The lowest WPDs were in 1996 and 2000 when Clinton was president.
The highest WPDs were in 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 when Bush was president.

Net Recorded Vote 75/25% Adjusted Unctd Unadjusted Exit Poll
Cast Record Unctd Dem Rep Unctd Dem Rep WPD Dem Rep

2008 7722 7595 127 62.8% 36.1% 1.6% 63.0% 35.9% na 67.4% 31.8% (True Vote)
2004 7698 7391 307 58.4% 40.1% 4.0% 59.0% 39.5% (12.2) 64.5% 34.0%
2000 7004 6823 181 60.2% 35.2% 2.6% 60.6% 35.0% (3.3) 61.9% 33.6%
1996 6823 6316 507 59.5% 30.6% 7.4% 60.6% 30.2% 2.1 58.4% 31.7%
1992 7613 6927 686 49.7% 33.9% 9.0% 52.0% 33.1% (4.6) 52.0% 31.6%
1988 7174 6486 688 51.6% 47.5% 9.6% 53.9% 45.4% (7.2) 55.2% 43.9%



Oregon vs. New York

National Oregon New York
2000 Gore Bush Margin Gore Bush Margin Gore Bush Margin
Record 48.4 47.9 0.5 47.0 46.5 0.5 60.2 35.2 25.0
ExitP 49.4 46.9 2.5 na na na 61.9 33.6 28.3
Rec+Nader 50.6 48.4 2.2 51.0 47.5 3.5 63.2 36.0 27.2

2004 Kerry Bush Margin Kerry Bush Margin Kerry Bush Margin
Record 48.3 50.7 -2.4 51.4 47.2 4.2 58.4 40.1 18.3
ExitP 52.0 47.0 5.0 52.3 46.3 6.0 64.5 34.0 30.5

2008 Obama McCain Margin Obama McCain Margin Obama McCain Margin
Record 52.9 45.6 7.3 56.8 40.4 16.4 62.8 36.1 26.7
True 58.0 40.3 17.7 57.1 40.7 16.4 67.4 31.8 35.6


New York Late (paper ballot) vs. Election Day (Lever) Vote
* 2008 True vote calculated, exit poll not released

Election Day (lever) Late (paper)
Vote Dem Share Vote Dem Share Exit Poll
2000 6,270 3,747 59.8% 552 361 65.4% 61.9%
2004 6,892 3,993 57.9% 499 321 64.3% 64.5%
2008* 7,011 4,360 62.2% 584 412 70.7% 67.4%*

Total 20,174 12,100 60.0% 1,635 1,094 66.9% 64.6%


Oregon
Multnomah County
2004 Total Kerry Bush Other Undervotes Over-votes
Votes 362,694 259,585 99,439 3,670 1,831 1,005
Share 71.57% 27.42% 1.01% 64.56% 35.44%

2000 Total Gore Bush Other Undervotes Over-votes
Votes 296,685 188,441 83,677 24,567 1,658 1,433
Share - 63.52% 28.20% 8.28% 53.64% 46.36%

Diff 66,009 71,144 15,762 -20,897
Share - 81.86% 18.14%

Initial 291.9 187.6 83.4 20.92 64.3% 28.6%
Final 296.7 188.4 83.7 24.6 63.5% 28.2%
Late 4.7 0.8 0.3 3.6 16.8% 6.2%


2004 Brooklyn

Final Kerry Bush Other
693,703 514,973 158,149 20,581
Share 74.24% 22.80% 2.97%

Initial Kerry Bush Other
630,323 468,495 156,612 5,216
Share 74.33% 24.85% 0.83%

Late
63,380 46,478 1,537 15,365
Share 73.33% 2.43% 24.24%


2000 Brooklyn

Final Gore Bush Other
642,563 480,135 96,609 65,819
Share 74.72% 15.03% 10.24%

Initial Gore Bush Nader
556,802 445,196 89,377 22,229
Share 79.96% 16.05% 3.99%

Late
85,761 34,939 7,232 43,590
Share 40.74% 8.43% 50.83%

Change from 2000 to 2004
51,140 34,838 61,540 -45,238
Share 36.15% 63.85%




2004 Oregon True Vote

National
2000 Turnout in 2004 Unctd / stuffed
Cast Recorded Unctd Alive Cast Recorded Unctd Mort Gore Bush Gore Bush Other
110.8 105.4 5.4 105.3 125.7 122.3 3.4 6.1 98% 98% 50% 49% 1%
- 95.1% 4.9% 95.0% - 97.3% 2.7% 5.0% - - 0% 100% -


OR Vote (mil) Pct Share (%) Vote (mil)
MoE 2000 Cast Recorded Alive Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Total
0.02 DNV - - - 0.41 22.25 59.75 37.35 2.90 0.24 0.15 0.01 0.41
0.01 Gore 0.72 0.72 0.68 0.67 36.51 91.57 6.97 1.45 0.61 0.05 0.01 0.67
0.01 Bush 0.71 0.71 0.68 0.66 36.17 10.64 89.36 0.00 0.07 0.59 0.00 0.66
0.02 Other 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 5.07 64.00 8.40 27.60 0.06 0.01 0.03 0.09

True 1.53 1.53 1.46 1.84 53.82 43.60 2.58 0.99 0.80 0.05 1.84

2000 Bush Gore Other Recorded 51.35 47.19 1.46 0.94 0.87 0.03 1.84
Recorded 46.52 46.96 6.52 Diff 2.47 -3.59 1.12 0.05 -0.07 0.02 0.00
ExitP 46.52 46.96 6.52 Exit Poll 52.25 46.29 1.46 0.96 0.85 0.03 1.84
Cast 46.34 47.11 6.54 Diff 1.57 -2.69 1.12 0.03 -0.05 0.02 0.00



Bush Gore voter turnout Share of Kerry Share of DNV
turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Bush 55% 56% 57% 58% 59%
Kerry Share (%) Kerry Share (%)
90% 54.3 54.5 54.8 55.0 55.3 12% 53.3 53.5 53.7 53.9 54.1
92% 53.9 54.2 54.4 54.7 54.9 11% 52.9 53.1 53.3 53.6 53.8
94% 53.6 53.8 54.1 54.3 54.5 10% 52.5 52.8 53.0 53.2 53.4
96% 53.2 53.5 53.7 53.9 54.2 9% 52.2 52.4 52.6 52.8 53.1
98% 52.9 53.1 53.3 53.6 53.8 8% 51.8 52.0 52.3 52.5 52.7

Kerry Margin (mil.) Kerry Margin (mil.)
90% 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.24 12% 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.20
92% 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 11% 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.19
94% 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.21 10% 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.17
96% 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.20 9% 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.16
98% 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.19 8% 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.15



2008 Oregon True Vote

OR Vote (mil) Pct Share (%) Vote (mil)
2004 Cast Recorded Alive Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other Total
DNV - - - 0.07 3.92 74.98 25.02 0.00 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.07
Kerry 1.01 0.94 0.96 0.93 50.20 89.81 8.30 1.89 0.83 0.08 0.02 0.93
Bush 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 44.48 18.25 79.86 1.89 0.15 0.66 0.02 0.82
Other 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 1.40 66.00 1.82 32.18 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.03

True 1.92 1.84 1.83 1.85 57.06 40.69 2.24 1.05 0.75 0.04 1.85

2004 Bush Kerry Other Recorded 56.75 40.40 2.85 1.04 0.74 0.05 1.83
Recorded 47.19 51.35 1.46 Diff 0.31 0.29 -0.61 0.02 0.01 -0.01 0.02
ExitP 46.29 52.25 1.46
Cast 47.27 51.29 1.44

Bush Kerry voter turnout Share of Obama Share of DNV
turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Bush 71% 72% 73% 74% 75%
Obama Share (%) Obama Share (%)
90% 58.4 58.5 58.7 58.8 59.0 19% 57.2 57.3 57.3 57.4 57.4
92% 57.8 58.0 58.1 58.3 58.4 18% 56.8 56.8 56.9 56.9 57.0
94% 57.3 57.5 57.6 57.8 57.9 17% 56.4 56.4 56.4 56.5 56.5
96% 56.8 56.9 57.1 57.2 57.4 16% 55.9 55.9 56.0 56.0 56.1
98% 56.3 56.4 56.6 56.7 56.9 15% 55.5 55.5 55.5 55.6 55.6

Obama Margin (mil.) Obama Margin (mil.)
90% 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 19% 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31
92% 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.35 18% 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.30
94% 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 17% 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28
96% 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 16% 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.27
98% 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.30 15% 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25



2004 New York True Vote

2000 National 2004 Turnout in 2004 Unctd / stuffed
Cast Official Unctd Alive Cast Official Unctd Mortality Gore Bush Gore Bush Other
110.8 105.4 5.4 105.3 125.7 122.3 3.4 6.1 98% 98% 75% 24% 1%
- 95.1% 4.9% 95.0% - 97.3% 2.7% 5.0% - - 0% 100% -

NY New York Vote (mil) Pct Share (%) Vote (mil)
2000 Cast Recorded Alive Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Total
DNV - - - 1.2 15.3 66.0 30.9 3.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.2
Gore 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 51.3 92.9 5.6 1.5 3.7 0.2 0.1 4.0
Bush 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 29.6 12.1 87.9 0.0 0.3 2.0 0.0 2.3
Other 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 3.8 64.0 6.8 29.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3

True 7.0 6.8 6.7 7.7 63.8 33.9 2.4 4.9 2.6 0.2 7.7

2000 Bush Gore Other Recorded 58.4 40.1 1.5 4.3 3.0 0.1 7.4
Recorded 35.2 60.2 4.6 Diff 5.4 -6.2 0.8 0.6 -0.4 0.1 0.3
ExitP 33.6 61.9 4.6 Exit Poll 64.5 34.0 1.5 4.8 2.5 0.1 7.4
Cast 34.9 60.6 4.5 Diff -0.7 -0.1 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3

2004 NY 2004 NY
Bush Gore voter turnout Share of Kerry Share of DNV
turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Bush 57% 61% 65% 66% 67%
Kerry Share (%) Kerry Share (%)
90% 64.0 64.2 64.5 64.8 65.1 12% 62.4 63.0 63.6 63.7 63.9
92% 63.6 63.9 64.2 64.5 64.8 11% 62.1 62.7 63.3 63.4 63.6
94% 63.3 63.6 63.9 64.1 64.4 10% 61.8 62.4 63.0 63.2 63.3
96% 63.0 63.3 63.5 63.8 64.1 9% 61.5 62.1 62.7 62.9 63.0
98% 62.6 62.9 63.2 63.5 63.8 8% 61.2 61.8 62.4 62.6 62.7

Kerry Margin (mil.) Kerry Margin (mil.)
90% 2.33 2.38 2.42 2.46 2.50 12% 2.09 2.18 2.27 2.30 2.32
92% 2.28 2.33 2.37 2.41 2.45 11% 2.04 2.13 2.23 2.25 2.28
94% 2.23 2.28 2.32 2.36 2.40 10% 2.00 2.09 2.18 2.21 2.23
96% 2.18 2.23 2.27 2.31 2.35 9% 1.95 2.04 2.14 2.16 2.18
98% 2.13 2.18 2.22 2.26 2.30 8% 1.90 2.00 2.09 2.12 2.14


2008 New York True Vote

2004 National 2008 Turnout in 2008 Unctd / stuffed
Cast Official Unctd Alive Cast Official Unctd Mortality Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Other
125.7 122.3 3.4 119.4 132.6 131.4 1.2 6.6 97% 97% 75% 24% 1%
- 97.3% 2.7% 95.0% - 99.1% 0.9% 5.0% - - 0% 100% -


NY Vote (mil) Pct Share (%) Vote (mil)
2004 Cast Recorded Alive Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other Total
DNV - - - 0.6 8.1 78.1 21.9 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.6
Kerry 4.9 4.3 4.7 4.5 58.9 91.1 8.2 0.7 4.1 0.4 0.0 4.5
Bush 2.6 3.0 2.5 2.4 31.6 20.2 79.1 0.7 0.5 1.9 0.0 2.4
Other 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4 66.0 21.7 12.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1

True 7.7 7.4 7.3 7.7 67.4 31.8 0.8 5.2 2.5 0.1 7.7

2004 Bush Kerry Other Recorded 62.8 36.1 1.1 4.8 2.7 0.1 7.6
Recorded 40.1 58.4 1.5 Diff 4.5 -4.2 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.1
ExitP 34.0 64.5 1.5
Cast 39.4 59.0 1.5


Bush Kerry voter turnout Share of Obama Share of DNV
turnout 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Bush 76% 77% 78% 79% 80%
Obama Share (%) Obama Share (%)
90% 68.1 68.2 68.4 68.5 68.7 19% 66.7 66.8 66.9 67.0 67.1
92% 67.7 67.8 68.0 68.2 68.3 18% 66.4 66.5 66.6 66.7 66.8
94% 67.3 67.5 67.6 67.8 67.9 17% 66.1 66.2 66.3 66.4 66.4
96% 66.9 67.1 67.2 67.4 67.6 16% 65.8 65.9 66.0 66.0 66.1
98% 66.5 66.7 66.9 67.0 67.2 15% 65.5 65.6 65.6 65.7 65.8

Obama Margin (mil.) Obama Margin (mil.)
90% 2.85 2.87 2.90 2.93 2.95 19% 2.65 2.66 2.68 2.69 2.70
92% 2.79 2.82 2.84 2.87 2.89 18% 2.60 2.61 2.63 2.64 2.65
94% 2.73 2.76 2.78 2.81 2.83 17% 2.55 2.57 2.58 2.59 2.60
96% 2.68 2.70 2.73 2.75 2.78 16% 2.50 2.52 2.53 2.54 2.55
98% 2.62 2.64 2.67 2.69 2.72 15% 2.46 2.47 2.48 2.49 2.51

[div align="left"style="width:65em;font-family:Times New Roman,Arial;font-size:16px;line-height:1.25"]
[div style="font-family:Arial,'Times New Roman';font-size:24px;font-style: normal;font-weight:bold"]Oregon Mail-in Ballots & Hand-Recount Systemvs.New York Lever System: 2000-2008[/quote]
[link:richardcharnin.com/|TruthIsAll]source: [link:richardcharnin.com/OregonVsNYVoting.htm|richardcharnin.com/OregonVsNYVoting.htm]

April 11, 2010

As a battleground state, one can expect that Oregon would closely match the will of the national electorate. Since Oregon votes 100% by mail and paper ballot precincts had the lowest (2%) discrepancies from the recorded vote, we can hypothesize that Oregon closely approximates the national [link:tinyurl.com/y8fztuz|True Vote] share. In fact, [link:tinyurl.com/yjz893t|Oregon’s] recorded vote-count [link:tinyurl.com/yb5z2zg|share] closely approximated the True National Vote in 2000, [link:tinyurl.com/yasdj88|2004 and 2008]. But unlike the other battleground and strong Democratic states which saw Bush increase his recorded vote share from 2000, Bush lost share in Oregon (i.e., vis-à-vis 'Other'-allocated share, see below).

In 1992 Oregon had a 13.6% [link:tinyurl.com/yfc9per|exit poll discrepancy]. In 1996, it had a 10% [link:tinyurl.com/y8cuv6f|uncounted vote rate]. These anomalies may have had something to do with the 1998 switch to [link:tinyurl.com/ya95bs7|mail-in ballots].
[/quote][div style="clear:left;float:left;font-family:Arial,Verdana,TImes;font-size:12px;width:111em"][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;font-family:Arial,Verdana,TImes;font-size:12px;width:3.5em"]




2004


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[/quote]2004
[div style="clear:left;line-height:1.0"]
[/quote]2000

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[/quote]2004
[/quote][div style="float:left;width:26.7em;font-family:Arial,Verdana,TImes;font-size:11px"]
[div align="center"style="clear:left;width:26.3em;border:solid;border-width:2px 2px 0px 2px"]'Battleground state' [link:tinyurl.com/yjz893t|OREGON][/quote]
[div align="left"style="clear:left;width:21em"]OR PHONE SURVEY Share (±3.2% MoE)[/quote][div align="center"style="clear:left;float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:1px 0px 1px 2px"]Kerry
52.2[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:1px 0px 1px 0px"]Bush
46.3[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:1px 1px 1px 0px"]
[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:1px 2px 1px 0px"]Margin
+5.9[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em"]
[/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height:1.5"]
[/quote][div align="left"style="clear:left;width:25.4em"]OR VOTE-COUNT [link:tinyurl.com/yb5z2zg|Share] (%)[/quote][div align="center"style="clear:left;float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:1px 0px 0px 2px"]Kerry
51.35[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:1px 0px 0px 0px"]Bush
47.19[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:1px 1px 0px 0px"]
[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:1px 2px 0px 0px"]Margin
+4.16[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:1px 2px 0px 0px"]Swing
[/quote][div align="center"style="clear:left;float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:0px 0px 1px 2px"]Gore
46.96[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:0px 0px 1px 0px"]Bush
46.52[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:0px 1px 1px 0px"]Nader
5.04[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:0px 2px 1px 0px"]
+0.44[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:0px 2px 1px 0px"]+3.7%
[/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height:2.5"]
[/quote][div style="width:23em"][div align="left"style="clear:left;float:left;width:15.6em;border:solid;border-width:1px 1px 0px 2px"]DISCREPANCY (%)[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:1px 2px 0px 0px"]Margin Δ[/quote][div align="center"style="clear:left;float:left;width:15.6em;border:solid;border-width:0px 1px 0px 2px"]PhoneSurvey - VoteCount
[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:0px 2px 0px 0px"]+1.74%[/quote][div align="center"style="clear:left;float:left;width:15.6em;border:solid;border-width:0px 1px 2px 2px"]'+' = share-margin shift to Bush[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;color:black;border:solid;border-width:0px 2px 2px 0px"]< MoE[/quote][div style="clear:left;width:29.3em;font-family:Arial,verdana;font-size:10px;border:solid 0px blue"]
Oregon Voting System Advantages
[div align="left"style="clear:left;float:left;font-size:11px;width:1.4em"]&bull;
&bull;

&bull;
&bull;


[/quote][div style="float:left;width:25.2em;font-size:11px;font-family:Arial,verdana;"]Vote exclusively by mail-in ballots: '04=86.5% '08=85.7%
Each general election: post-election handcount of random-selected precincts
Partial/full hand-recounts check optical scanner tallies
"No recount conducted in Oregon has ever turned up evidence that a tally machine failed to correctly count votes. A full recount is the ultimate test and with each election we always have at least one or two."[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;font-size:12px"]Oregon Facts:[/quote][div style="clear:left;float:left;font-size:11px;width:1.4em"]&bull;

&bull;



&bull;[/quote][div style="float:left;width:25.2em;font-size:11px;font-family:Arial,verdana"]Gore 2000:
.44% OR VoteCount margin VERY NEAR .52% National
Kerry 2004:
4.2% OR VoteCount margin was a NEAR MATCH to 5% unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate. Compare to Kerry-2.5% National Recorded Vote-Count margin deficit
Obama 2008:
56.7% OR VoteCount share a NEAR MATCH to 57.1% OR TrueVote model. Compare 52.9% National Recorded share vs his 58.0% National TrueVote model[/quote][/quote][/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:27.7em;font-family:Arial,Verdana,TImes;font-size:11px;border:solid 0px green"]
[div align="center"style="clear:left;width:26.3em;border:solid;border-width:2px 2px 0px 2px"]Solid 'Democratic state' [link:tinyurl.com/chj65b|NEW YORK][/quote]
[div align="left"style="clear:left;width:20em"]NY EXIT POLL Share (± 2-3% MoE)[/quote][div align="center"style="clear:left;float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:1px 0px 1px 2px"]Kerry
64.5[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:1px 0px 1px 0px"]Bush
34.0[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:1px 1px 1px 0px"]
[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:1px 2px 1px 0px"]Margin
+30.5[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em"]
[/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height:1.5"]
[/quote][div align="left"style="clear:left;width:25.2em"]NY VOTE-COUNT [link:tinyurl.com/yaz4geo|Share] (%)[/quote][div align="center"style="clear:left;float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid maroon;border-width:1px 0px 0px 2px"]Kerry
58.37[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid maroon;border-width:1px 0px 0px 0px"]Bush
40.08[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid maroon;border-width:1px 1px 0px 0px"]Nader
1.35[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid maroon;border-width:1px 2px 0px 0px"]Margin
+18.29[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid maroon;border-width:1px 2px 0px 0px"]Swing
[/quote][div align="center"style="clear:left;float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:0px 0px 1px 2px"]Gore
60.21[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:0px 0px 1px 0px"]Bush
35.23[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:0px 1px 1px 0px"]Nader
3.58[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:0px 2px 1px 0px"]
+24.98[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:0px 2px 1px 0px"]-6.7%
[/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height:2.5"]
[/quote][div style="width:23em"][div align="left"style="clear:left;float:left;width:15.6em;border:solid;border-width:1px 1px 0px 2px"]DISCREPANCY ( [link:tinyurl.com/yfc9per|WPD] ) (%)[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:1px 2px 0px 0px"]Margin Δ[/quote][div align="center"style="clear:left;float:left;width:15.6em;border:solid;border-width:0px 1px 0px 2px"]ExitPoll - VoteCount
[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:0px 2px 0px 0px"]+12.2 %[/quote][div align="center"style="clear:left;float:left;width:15.6em;border:solid;border-width:0px 1px 2px 2px"]'+' = share-margin shift to Bush[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:0px 2px 2px 0px"]>2 x MoE[/quote][div style="clear:left;width:30em;font-family:Arial,verdana;font-size:10px;border:solid 0px blue"]
New York Voting System Vulnerabilities:
[div align="left"style="clear:left;float:left;font-size:11px;width:1.4em"]&bull;

&bull;
&bull;
&bull;

&bull;
&bull;[/quote][div style="float:left;width:25.2em;font-size:11px;font-family:Arial,verdana;"]Defective levers in the most democratic precincts – undercount votes
Too few levers in Democratic precincts – long lines
Pre-set levers stuck on Bush – discourage voters
Late provisional and absentee paper ballots not counted on Election Day
Lever totals input to PROGRAMMABLE central tabulators
No hand recounts – there are no paper ballots to count (except for late votes)[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;font-size:12px"]New York Facts:[/quote][div style="clear:left;float:left;font-size:11px;width:1.4em"]&bull;


&bull;

&bull;

&bull;[/quote][div style="float:left;width:25.8em;font-size:11px;font-family:Arial,verdana;"]2000-2008:
Democratic late (paper ballot) vote-share 7% higher than E-Day (lever) and matched the unadjusted exit polls
Gore 2000:
25% recorded marg (60-35%)–2% exitpoll discrepancy
Kerry 2004:
18% recorded marg (58-40%)–12% exitpoll discrepancy
Obama 2008:
27% recorded marg (63-36%)–exitpoll withheld by MSM[/quote][/quote][/quote]
[/quote][div style="float:left;width:3.5em;border:solid 0px blue"][/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:55.8em;font-family:Arial,Verdana,TImes;font-size:11px;border:solid 0px green"]
[div style="clear:left;width:53.5em;max-width:53.9em;border:solid;border-width:2px 2px 0px 2px;text-align:center"]NATIONAL Exit Polls&Recorded Vote-Counts –Prelim NEPs[link:tinyurl.com/5vg6ss|vs]Final NEPs[/quote]
[div style="float:left;width:23.7em;font-family:Arial,Verdana,TImes;font-size:11px;border:solid 0px purple"][div align="left"style="clear:left;float:left;width:23.6em"]PRELIM NEP,13K Random Selection[link:tinyurl.com/6bxpqm|.86% MoE][/quote]
[div align="center"style="clear:left;float:left;width:5.5em;border:solid;border-width:1px 0px 1px 2px"]Kerry
50.8[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.5em;border:solid;border-width:1px 0px 1px 0px"]Bush
48.2[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:6.1em;border:solid;border-width:1px 1px 1px 0px"]Nader
1.0[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.7em;border:solid;border-width:1px 2px 1px 0px"]Margin
+2.6[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:1.5em;border:solid 0px black"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:28.8em;max-width:29em;font-family:Arial,Verdana,TImes;font-size:11px;border:solid 0px orange"][div align="left"style="clear:left;float:left;width:26.2em;max-width:26.6em"]Final NEP–[link:tinyurl.com/ybj6d5x|IMPOSSIBLE][link:tinyurl.com/4r5p22|forced] match of VoteCount[/quote][div align="center"style="clear:left;float:left;width:5.5em;border:solid maroon;border-width:1px 0px 1px 2px"]Kerry
48[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.5em;border:solid maroon;border-width:1px 0px 1px 0px"]Bush
51[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:6.1em;border:solid maroon;border-width:1px 1px 1px 0px"]
[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.8em;border:solid maroon;border-width:1px 2px 1px 0px"]Margin
-3.0[/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height:1.5"]
[/quote][div align="left"style="clear:left;width:22.7em"]Recorded VOTE-COUNT [link:tinyurl.com/yeyak7z|Share] (%)[/quote][div align="center"style="clear:left;float:left;width:5.5em;border:solid maroon;border-width:1px 0px 0px 2px"]Kerry
48.27[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.5em;border:solid maroon;border-width:1px 0px 0px 0px"]Bush
50.73[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:6.1em;border:solid maroon;border-width:1px 1px 0px 0px"]Nader
0.38[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.8em;border:solid maroon;border-width:1px 2px 0px 0px"]Margin
-2.46[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid maroon;border-width:1px 2px 0px 0px"]Swing
[/quote][div align="center"style="clear:left;float:left;width:5.5em;border:solid;border-width:0px 0px 1px 2px"]Gore
48.38[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.5em;border:solid;border-width:0px 0px 1px 0px"]Bush
47.87[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:6.1em;border:solid;border-width:0px 1px 1px 0px"]Nader
2.73[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.8em;border:solid;border-width:0px 2px 1px 0px"]
+0.52[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.2em;border:solid;border-width:0px 2px 1px 0px"]-3.0%
[/quote][/quote][div align="right"style="clear:left;line-height:2.3"]
[/quote][div style="font-family:Arial;font-size:11px"][div style="clear:left;float:left;width:15em;text-align:center"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:17.1em;border:solid;border-width:1px 1px 0px 2px;text-align:left"]DISCREPANCY (%)[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.7em;border:solid;border-width:1px 2px 0px 0px"]Margin Δ[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:15em;text-align:center"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:17.1em;border:solid;border-width:0px 1px 0px 2px"]12:22a Prelim NEP - VoteCount
[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.7em;border:solid;border-width:0px 2px 0px 0px"]+5.1 %[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:15em;text-align:center"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:17.1em;border:solid;border-width:0px 1px 2px 2px"]'+' = share-margin shift to Bush[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.7em;border:solid;border-width:0px 2px 2px 0px"]3 x MoE[/quote]
[div align="left"style="margin-top:2.5em;float:right;width:45.3em;max-width:46.3em;font-family:Verdana;font-size:11px"][div style="background: #E5E5E5;border-top: 0px solid;border-right: 2px solid;margin-right: 2.0em"]&bull; If Final NEP weightings indicate a mathematically impossible number ofreturning voters, then simple logic dictates the weightings are impossible.
&bull; Since impossible weightings were necessary to match to the official vote count, then the official national [b style="color:maroon"]Recorded VOTE-COUNT must also be impossible.
&bull; Since the vote count is impossible, then all demographic category cross tabs must use [b]incorrect [b style="color:maroon"]weights and/or vote shares to match the count.[/quote][/quote]
[/quote][/quote][div align="left"style="clear:left;width:66em;font-family:Times New Roman,Arial;font-size:16px;line-height:1.25"]
Consider the following facts:

[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:1.8em"]1)[/quote][div style="float:left;width:62em"]In 2000, Gore won Oregon by 47.0 – 46.5%, matching his 48.4 – 47.9% national 0.5% vote margin (51.0 – 50.456 million)[/quote]

[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:62em;margin-left:1.8em"]The 'national' aggregate of 2000 unadjusted State Exit Polls ([link:tinyurl.com/yzunors|Election Calculator/HistWPE]) indicated that Gore won by 49.4 – 46.9%, a 3.2 million vote margin (52.6 – 49.4 million — 2.66 million more than his official recorded margin).[/quote]


[div style="clear:left;float:left;margin-left:1.8em"]&bull;[/quote][div style="float:left;width:62em"]According to the 2000 Census, there were 5.4 million [link:tinyurl.com/yc6w6mo|net uncounted] votes. The majority ([link:tinyurl.com/cd6kfw|70-80%]) of uncounted votes are Democratic. If Gore had 75% (4.0 million) of the uncounted votes, his national True Vote margin (based on total votes cast) was 49.6–46.8% (55.0–51.9 million) — a virtual match to his 49.4–46.9% aggregate state exit poll margin.

According to the 'un-forced' (see above) 2004 PRELIM National Exit Poll, Kerry won returning Nader/Other voters by [link:tinyurl.com/yk2h3vd|65%-13%-...] over Bush et al. Allocating the uncounted-adjusted national True Vote (49.6–46.8%) 'Other' share (3.6%), the 2000 National True Vote projects to 51.9–47.3%.
Allocating the state exit poll aggregate (49.4–46.9%) 'Other' share (3.7%), the 2000 Aggregate of State Exit Polls projects to 51.8–47.4%.
Allocating (likewise) the Oregon 'Nader/Other' share (6.5%), the 2000 Oregon Vote-Count share (47.0–46.5%) projects to 51.2–47.4%.
The projections match near-exactly and approach – share and margin – Kerry’s [link:tinyurl.com/yzunors|unadjusted state exit poll aggregate], 52–47%.

Do you agree that these results indicate that Oregon closely reflects the national electorate?[/quote]

[div style="clear:left;line-height:1.0"][/quote]2)In 2004, Kerry exceeded Gore’s margin in Oregon by 3.7% (51.4 – 47.2%), closely matching the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (52–47%).
3)Kerry won the pollster’s phone survey of Oregon voters by 52.3–46.3%, a slight 1.7% discrepancy from state recorded vote-count.
4)Kerry's 'national' win of the aggregate of unadjusted state exit polls by 52–47%, a 1% margin-discrepany from the Oregon phone survey.
5)In 14 [link:tinyurl.com/yfc9per|battleground states], the average exitpoll/votecount WPD was a whopping 7.5%. In Oregon, the telephone survey equivalent was just 1.7%.

[div style="clear:left;float:left;margin-left:1.8em"]&bull;[/quote][div style="float:left;width:62em"]Is it just a coincidence that in Oregon, with its mandated random audit, Bush’s 2004 mail-in ballot 47.2% vote share declined from his 47.4% 2000 share ('Nader/Other'-allocated, per above), while his vote shares increased in Democratic (12 of 15) [link:tinyurl.com/yfc9per|and] battleground (13 of 15) states with unverifiable DRE and mechanical vote counts and no mandated audit of optical scan ballots? ([link:uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html|source], by st/yr, 2000 'Other' allocated 13% Bush)

Kerry won Oregon by 51.4 – 47.2%. Bush won the national recorded vote-count by 50.7 – 48.3%.
Oregon voters were surveyed by telephone. The discrepancy from the Oregon recorded vote-count was 1.7%.
(In the other 14 battleground states, the average exitpoll/vote-count discrepancy was a whopping 7.5%.)[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote][div style="clear:left;width:59em;margin-left:1.8em"]&bull;Regarding the 2004 election, which do you believe?[/quote][div align="right"style="clear:left;float:left;width:4.5em"]a)
b)[/quote][div style="float:left;width:59.6em;line-height:1.25"]Oregon's vote share reflects and confirms the 'national' aggregate of unadjusted state exit polls (Kerry 52.0 – Bush 47.0%) or
The national [span style="color:maroon"]recorded vote-count share (Bush by 50.7 – 48.3% and basis for the impossible Final NEP) accurately reflected the True share (i.e. there was little or no fraud).

If you believe a), then you must also believe that Kerry must have done better than Gore nationwide and easily won the 2004 election.

One would logically expect that Kerry would have done better than Gore in highly Democratic New York State.

But that was not the case:Gore won NY by 25% (60 – 35%)Kerry won NY by only 18% (58 – 40%)

[div style="margin-left: 6em"]Not logical, especially since Kerry won the NY exit poll by 30% (64 – 34%).

The exit poll makes sense; Kerry had a [link:tinyurl.com/yk2h3vd|5-1] edge in returning Nader 2000 voters.[/quote]
Do you believe the NY recorded [link:tinyurl.com/chj65b|vote-count] or the exit poll of NY voters?[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height:1.0"][/quote][div style="clear:left;float:left;width:1.8em"]6)[/quote][div style="float:left;width:62em"]In [link:tinyurl.com/yb5z2zg|2008], Obama won Oregon by 56.7–40.4%. The True Vote model for OR (below) indicated he had 57.1% — a virtual match. Obama’s True national share was 58.0%, but his recorded share was just 52.9%. One would expect that Obama’s recorded Oregon share would closely match his national True share.[/quote]


[div style="clear:left;width:59em;margin-left:1.8em"]&bull;Do you believe that Obama’s 56.7% Oregon share reflected his[/quote][div align="right"style="clear:left;float:left;width:4.5em"]a)
b)[/quote][div style="float:left;width:59.6em"]True national 58.0% share,or
the national recorded vote-count 52.9% share?

If you believe a) then you must also believe that fraud cut [link:tinyurl.com/ya5ctzs|Obama’s margin] by 13.0 million (from 22.5 to 9.5 million).[/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height:.1"][/quote]
To summarize, Oregon matched the 2000 national recorded vote-count share and was within 2% of the 2000 aggregate state exit poll. It closely matched the 2004 Prelim National Exit Poll but was far from the 2004 national recorded vote-count share. In 2008, Oregon vote-count closely matched both the state and national True Vote models, but the 2008 unadjusted state exit polls [link:tinyurl.com/mecpzo|have not been released by the MSM].

Now consider New York.

In 2000, Gore won the state by 25% (60.2–35.2%). In 2004, Kerry’s recorded vote-count margin declined to 18.3% (58.4–40.1%). But Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 64.5–34.0%, a 12.2% WPD. Why the sharp reversal of fortune?

Consider the largest counties in Oregon and New York, Multnomah (OR) and Kings (NY):
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:15em"]Gore won Kings Cty (Brooklyn)
Gore won Multnomah[/quote][div style="float:left"] by 74.7–15.0%.Kerry won it by 74.2–22.8%, an8.3% LOWER margin.
by 63.5–28.2%.Kerry won it by 71.6–27.4%, an8.9% HIGHER margin.[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height:1.0"][/quote]It’s an [link:tinyurl.com/2kp9ce|Urban Legend]: Bush recorded vote share increased sharply from 2000 to 2004 in heavily Democratic urban areas but declined in rural locations. Except for Oregon — the ONLY 100% mail-in paper ballot and hand-recount state.

Consider that …
[div align="right"style="clear:left;float:left;width:1.3em;margin-right: 10px"]1)
2)
3)
4)
5)

6)
7)
8)

9)
10)


11)
12)
13)
14)[/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:62em"]Oregon votes by mail and NY by lever machines.
In the last three elections, the late NY Democratic (paper) vote shares were 7% higher than Election Day (lever) share.
In 2004, the average paper ballot precinct WPD was 2% and 12% for levers.
Kerry’s margin was 3.7% higher than Gore’s in Oregon (a battleground state), but 6.7% lower in New York (a strong Democratic state).
Kerry exceeded Gore’s margin by 8.9% in Oregon’s largest urban county (Multnomah) but Gore exceeded Kerry by 8.3% in New York’s largest (Kings).

Oregon's 1.7% vote discrepancy in the telephone survey was far less than the [link:tinyurl.com/yfc9per|other 14 battleground states] average 7.5% WPD..
Oregon closely matched the 2004 aggregate exit poll after allocating returning Nader voters to Kerry and Bush.
Oregon paper ballots are available for hand recounts (see [link:tinyurl.com/y998k6z|254.525], [link:tinyurl.com/ybh2wlj|258.211], [link:tinyurl.com/ylxm5ku|comments]).
New York votes are cast on levers, but counted on computers; there is no way to verify them.
Gore won NY by 60.2–35.2%. Allocating the 4.6% Nader/other vote, Kerry wins by 63-36% – assuming equal Gore/Bush defection.
According to the [link:tinyurl.com/6bxpqm|Preliminary] National Exit Poll (before it was 'forced' to match the vote count) 10% of returning Bush and 8% of returning Gore voters defected. Assuming these defection rates, Kerry’s NY margin increased 2% to 64-35%, matching the unadjusted [link:tinyurl.com/yce8mug|NY-State Exit Poll].

Gore did slightly better than his 60.2% NY recorded share after allocating 180,000 [link:tinyurl.com/y8cuv6f|net uncounted] votes.
In the two elections in which Clinton was the incumbent, the New York exit polls had an average 0.6 [link:tinyurl.com/yfc9per|WPD].
In the three elections in which a Bush was the incumbent, the NewYork exit polls had an average 8.0 WPD.
Oregon voters don’t worry about insufficient precinct levers, machine failures, vote counts terminating at 99, stuck levers, long lines, intimidation by poll workers, and unverifiable vote counts.[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height:1.0"][/quote]If one ignores all of the above, there is every reason for New Yorkers to “love those levers” – except for this: Even if everyone who came to the polls voted and all the lever machines performed perfectly, the fact remains that votes are counted by proprietary computer software, not open source, which can easily be programmed to switch votes that may or may not have been entered accurately. Ay, there’s the rub.

In 2004, the exit pollsters reported that lever voting machine precincts had a 12% error (WPD) rate. Optical scanners and touch screens were 7%. Paper ballot precincts had the lowest (2%). Is the fog lifting? What happened in 2004 should be very clear by now.

In the 2008 NY primary, zero votes were originally reported for Obama in nearly eighty minority precincts. Many New Yorkers love the levers. They have been led to believe that because levers are not computers, they are not subject to vote-switching and therefore essentially fraud-free. But lever precinct totals are tabulated on central computers which can be programmed to switch votes. And there are no paper ballots to verify the count – except for late provisional and absentee ballots which comprise about 7% of votes cast. It is interesting to note that since 2000, the Democrats have done 7% better in late (paper) voting than on Election Day (levers). It is also remarkable that Kerry’s late NY vote share was within 0.2% of the unadjusted exit poll. Uncounted votes declined from 700,000 in 1988 to fewer than 200,000 in 2000 — but the trend reversed to over 300,000 in 2004.

In Oregon, the ballots are separated from the return envelope before they are inspected. This process ensures confidentiality. The votes are counted on Election Day. A record is kept showing each voter whose ballot has been returned. No expensive voting machines, no corrupted election officials, no long lines, no machine breakdowns. In 1996, over 10% of votes cast were uncounted, but the rate has declined sharply since the switch to mail in 1998.

Oregon mail-in ballots are counted electronically, but there is a paper trail if a hand recount is necessary. In New York, computers also do the counting based on reported Lever totals– but there are no paper ballots to check the count. Levers are used to cast, but not count votes. Lever advocates don’t want to talk about that.

No wonder Oregonians are happy with their voting system. Why don't the other 49 states follow suit? They should HAVA look at how Oregon saves a ton of money and how real democracy works.
[/quote][/quote][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;font-family:Arial,Verdana;font-size:16px;font-weight:bold"]Oregon vs. New York[/quote][div style="clear:left;width:94em;font-family:Arial,Verdana;font-size:11px;line-height:1.25"][div style="clear:left;float:left;width:8em"]
2000
Recorded
Exit Poll
Rec+Nader

2004
Recorded
Exit Poll

2008
Recorded
TRUE[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]National
Gore
48.4
49.4
50.6

Kerry
48.3
52

Obama
52.9
58[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]
Bush
47.9
46.9
48.4

Bush
50.7
47

McCain
45.6
40.3[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]
Margin
0.5
2.5
2.2

Margin
-2.4
5

Margin
7.3
17.7[/quote][div style="float:left;width:1.5em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Oregon
Gore
47
na
51

Kerry
51.4
52.3

Obama
56.8
57.1[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]
Bush
46.5
na
47.5

Bush
47.2
46.3

McCain
40.4
40.7[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]
Margin
0.5
na
3.5

Margin
4.2
6

Margin
16.4
16.4[/quote][div style="float:left;width:1.5em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5.5em"]New York
Gore
60.2
61.9
63.2

Kerry
58.4
64.5

Obama
62.8
67.4[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]
Bush
35.2
33.6
36

Bush
40.1
34

McCain
36.1
31.8[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]
Margin
25
28.3
27.2

Margin
18.3
30.5

Margin
26.7
35.6[/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height:1.0"][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;font-family:Arial,Verdana;font-size:16px;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.0"]New York Votes:Late(Paper Ballot)vs.Election Day(Lever)[/quote]
* 2008 Calculated True vote (exit poll not released)
[div style="margin-top:1em;font-family:Arial,Verdana;font-size:11px;line-height:1.25"][div align="center"style="clear:left;float:left;width:5.8em;font-weight:bold"]A

2000
2004
2008

Total[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:15.2em;min-width:15.2em;border-top:solid 1px"]Election Day(Lever)
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"]Vote
6,270
6,892
7,011

20,174[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Dem
3,747
3,993
4,360

12,100[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Share
59.8%
57.9%
62.2%

60.0%[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:3em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:15.2em;min-width:15.2em;border-top:solid 1px"]Late Vote Count(Paper)
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"]Vote
552
499
584

1,635[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Dem
361
321
412

1,094[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Share
65.4%
64.3%
70.7%

66.9%[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:3em"][/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:5.5em;text-align:left"][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5.45em;min-width:5.5em;border-top:solid 1px"]Exit Poll
Share[/quote]
[div style="width:4.2em;text-align:right"]61.9%
64.5%
* 67.4%

64.6%[/quote][/quote][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height:1.0"][/quote]
Oregon — Multnomah County
[link:tinyurl.com/4pgdo|source]
[div align="center"style="margin-top:0em;width:55em;font-family:Arial,Verdana;font-size:11px;line-height:1.25"][div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5.5em;text-align:left"]2004
Votes
Share

2000
Votes
Share

Change


Share Δ[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5.5em"]Total
362,694
100%

Total
296,685
100%

66,009
100%

[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5.5em"]Kerry
259,585
71.6%

Gore
188,441
63.5%

71,144
81.9%

+ 8.1 %[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5.5em"]Bush
99,439
27.4%

Bush
83,677
28.2%

15,762
18.1%

- .8 %[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5.5em"]Other
3,670
1.0%

Other
24,567
8.3%

-20,897


- 7.3 %[/quote][div style="float:left;width:7em"]Undervote
1,831
64.6%

Undervote
1,658
53.6%


[/quote][div style="float:left;width:7em"]Overvote
1,005
35.4%

Overvote
1,433
46.4%


[/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height:1.0"][/quote]New York — Kings County (Brooklyn)
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5.5em;text-align:left"]2004
Votes
Share

2000
Votes
Share

Change


Share Δ[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5.5em"]Total
693,703
100%

Total
642,563
100%

51,140
100%

[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5.5em"]Kerry
514,973
74.2%

Gore
480,135
74.7%

34,838
36.2%

- .5 %[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5.5em"]Bush
158,149
22.8%

Bush
96,609
15.0%

61,540
63.9%

+ 7.8 %[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5.5em"]Other
20,581
3.0%

Other
65,819
10.2%

-45,238


- 7.2 %[/quote][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height:1.0"][/quote]
Oregon
(1) 2008 calculated True Vote in lieu of telephone survey (A) (pollster's '08 election report w data not released by MSM)
(2) 2004 WPD from telephone survey.
(3) Net Uncounted allocated 75/25% to OR Vote-Count
(4) Note that the OR margin matched the national recorded margin to within 0.1% in 1996, 2000 (Democratic incumbent)
but deviated by an average of 8.4% in 1988, 1992, 2004, 2008 (Republican incumbent).

*'+' indicates a margin-shift or difference in the vote-count(s) in favor of the Republican'&minus;' in favor of the Democrat

In 1996, 10.2% of votes cast were uncounted. The rate has declined sharply since the switch to mail ballots in 1998.
[div align="left"style="margin-top:2em;width:99em;font-family:Arial,Verdana;font-size:11px;line-height:1.2"][div style="clear:left;float:left;width:4em;font-weight:bold"]


2008
2004
2000
1996
1992
1988[/quote][div style="float:left;width:3.5em;text-align:center"]Votes
Cast

1845
1924
1529
1534
1525
1293[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;text-align:center"]
Recorded

1828
1837
1534
1378
1463
1202[/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:3.5em;text-align:left"][div style="width:3.45em;text-align:center"]Net
Unctd[/quote]
[div style="width:2.4em;text-align:right"]17
87
-5
156
62
92[/quote][/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:5em;text-align:left"][div style="width:4.95em;text-align:center"]%
Unctd[/quote]
[div style="width:3.3em;text-align:right"]0.9
4.5
-0.3
10.2
4.1
7.1[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:2.0em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:12em;border-top:solid 1px;text-align:center"]OR Unadj Exit Poll % (A)[div style="float:left;width:1.3em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:2.5em;text-align:center"]Dem

57.1
52.2
na
48.4
49.3
55.0[/quote][div style="float:left;width:2.5em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:2.5em;text-align:center"]Rep

40.4
46.3
na
37.9
25.7
42.9[/quote][div style="float:left;width:1.7em;text-align:center"]

(1)
(2)



[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:.7em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:10.6em;border-top:solid 1px;text-align:center"]OR Vote-Count % (B)[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"]Dem

56.7
51.4
47.0
47.2
42.5
51.3[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Rep

40.4
47.2
46.5
39.1
32.5
46.6[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:0.7em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:12.5em;border-top:solid 1px;text-align:center"]OR Vote-Count Adj % (3)[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em;text-align:center"]Dem

56.9
52.3
47.1
50.0
43.8
53.0[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Rep

40.3
46.3
46.3
37.6
32.2
45.1[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:13em;border-top:solid 1px;text-align:center"]Natl Recorded Count % (C)[div style="float:left;width:1em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Dem

52.9
48.3
48.4
47.4
43.0
45.7[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Rep

45.6
50.7
47.9
39.2
37.4
54.4[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:3em"][/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:6em;border-top:solid 1px;text-align:left"][div style="width:5.95em;text-align:center"](A - B)* OR
WPD %[/quote]
[div style="float:left;width:3.4em;text-align:right"]+0.4
+1.7
na
+2.4
+13.6
+7.4[/quote][div style="float:left;width:1.7em;text-align:right"](1)
(2)



[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:11.5em;border-top:solid 1px"][div style="width:11.45em;text-align:center"](B &minus; C)* OR-National
Margin Δ % (4)[/quote]
[div style="width:5.4em;text-align:right"]+9.0
+6.6
0.0
&minus;0.1
+4.4
+13.4[/quote][/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height:1.0"][/quote][div align="center"style="clear:left;font-family:Arial,Verdana;width:87em;font-size:10px"]National Data
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Cast 2000
110.8
-


[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Recorded
105.4
95.10%


[/quote][div style="float:left;width:4em"]Unctd
5.4
4.90%


[/quote][div style="float:left;width:7em"]'00 Alive '04
105.3
95.00%
'04 Alive '08
119.4
95.00%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5.5em"]Cast 2004
125.7
100%
Cast 2008
132.6
100%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5.5em"]Recorded
122.3
97.30%

131.4
99.10%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:4em"]Unctd
3.4
2.70%

1.2
0.90%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Mortality
6.3
5.00%

6.6
5.00%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:4.5em"][div align="right"style="width:4.45em"]Turnout[/quote]Gore
98%[div align="right"style="width:4.45em"]Turnout[/quote]Kerry
97%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:4.5em"][div align="left"style="width:4.45em"]in '04[/quote]Bush
98%
[div align="left"style="width:4.45em"]in '08[/quote]Bush
97%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:12em"]Uncounted / stuffed[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:4em"]Gore
50%

Kerry
75%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:4.0em"]Bush
49%

Bush
24%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:3.95em"]Other
1%

Other
1%[/quote][/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height:0.5"][/quote]
[div align="center"style="clear:left;font-family:Arial,Verdana;width:87em;font-size:10px"]2004 Oregon True Vote
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:2 0 0 2"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:2 1 0 2"]OR[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:15em;border:solid;border-width:2 2 0 0"]Vote (mil)[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]2004[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:2 1 0 2"]Pct[/quote][div style="float:left;width:15em;border:solid;border-width:2 1 0 0"]Share %[/quote][div style="float:left;width:20.0em;min-width:20.1em;border:solid;border-width:2 2 0 0"]TrueVote (mil)[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 2"]MoE[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 1 2"]2000[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Cast[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Recorded[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 2 1 0"]Alive[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em"]Turnout[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 1 2"]Mix[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Kerry[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Bush[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 1 0"]Other[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Kerry[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Bush[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Other[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5.0em;min-width:5.1em;border:solid;border-width:0 2 1 0"]Total[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 2 2"]0.02
0.01
0.01
0.02[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 2 2"]DNV
Gore
Bush
Other




2000
Recorded
ExitP
Cast[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"]-
0.72
0.71
0.10

1.53


Gore
46.96
46.96
47.11[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"] -
0.72
0.71
0.10

1.53


Bush
46.52
46.52
46.34[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 2 2 0"] -
0.68
0.68
0.10

1.46


Other
6.52
6.52
6.54[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"][div align="right"style="width:3em"]0.41
0.67
0.66
0.09

1.84





[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 2 2"]22.25
36.51
36.17
5.07

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]True Vote
[/quote]
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]Recorded[/quote]Diff
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]Exit Poll[/quote]Diff[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"]59.75
91.57
10.64
64

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]53.82[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]51.35[/quote]2.47
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]52.25[/quote]1.57[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"]37.35
6.97
89.36
8.4

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]43.60[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]47.19[/quote]-3.59
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]46.29[/quote]-2.69[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 2 0"]2.90
1.45
0
27.6

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]2.58[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]1.46[/quote]1.12
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]1.46[/quote]1.12[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"]0.24
0.61
0.07
0.06

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]0.99[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]0.94[/quote]0.05
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]0.96[/quote]0.03[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"]0.15
0.05
0.59
0.01

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]0.80[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]0.87[/quote]-0.07
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]0.85[/quote]-0.05[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 2 0"]0.01
0.01
0
0.03

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]0.05[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]0.03[/quote]0.02
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]0.03[/quote]0.02[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 2 2 0"]0.41
0.67
0.66
0.09

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]1.84[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]1.84[/quote]0
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]1.84[/quote]0[/quote][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height:1.5"][/quote][div align="center"style="clear:left;font-family:Arial,Verdana;width:87em;font-size:10px"]2008 Oregon True Vote
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:2 1 0 2"]OR[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:15em;border:solid;border-width:2 2 0 0"]Vote (mil)[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]2008[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:2 1 0 2"]Pct[/quote][div style="float:left;width:15em;border:solid;border-width:2 1 0 0"]Share %[/quote][div style="float:left;width:20.0em;min-width:20.1em;border:solid;border-width:2 2 0 0"]TrueVote (mil)[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 1 2"]2004[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Cast[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Recorded[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 2 1 0"]Alive[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em"]Turnout[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 1 2"]Mix[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Obama[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]McCain[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 1 0"]Other[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Obama[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]McCain[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Other[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5.0em;min-width:5.1em;border:solid;border-width:0 2 1 0"]Total[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"]



[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 2 2"]DNV
Kerry
Bush
Other



2004
Recorded
ExitP
Cast
TRUE[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"] -
1.01
0.89
0.03

1.92

Kerry
51.35
51.25
51.29
53.82[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"] -
0.94
0.87
0.03

1.84

Bush
47.19
46.29
47.27
43.6[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 2 2 0"] -
0.96
0.85
0.03

1.83

Other
1.46
1.46
1.44
2.58[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"][div align="right"style="width:3em"]0.07
0.93
0.82
0.03

1.85





[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 2 2"]3.9
50.2
44.5
1.4

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]True Vote
[/quote]
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]Recorded[/quote]Diff
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]Exit Poll[/quote]Diff[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"]75
89.8
18.3
66

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]57.1[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]56.75[/quote]0.31
[div align="right"style="border-top:solid 1px"]data still[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"]25
8.3
79.9
1.8

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]40.7[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]40.4[/quote]0.3
[div align="center"style="border-top:solid 1px"]withheld[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 2 0"]0
1.9
1.9
32.1

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]2.24[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]2.85[/quote]-0.61
[div align="left"style="border-top:solid 1px"]by MSM[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"]0.05
0.83
0.15
0.02

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]1.05[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]1.04[/quote]0.02
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"][/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"]0.02
0.08
0.66
0.00

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]0.75[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]0.74[/quote]0.01
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"][/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 2 0"]0
0.02
0.02
0.01

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]0.04[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]0.05[/quote]-0.01
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"][/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 2 2 0"]0.07
0.93
0.82
0.03

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]1.85[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]1.83[/quote]0.02
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"][/quote][/quote][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;margin-left: 4em;line-height:2.0"]See source for Sensitivity Analyses[/quote]

New York
[span style="font-family:Arial,Courier New;font-size:12px;font-weight:normal"](1) True Vote substituted for (A) ('08 state exit poll data yet to be released by MSM)
(2) Net Uncounted allocated 75/25% to NY Vote-Count
Note: The declining trend in net uncounted votes was reversed in 2004.
The lowest WPDs were in 1996 and 2000 when Clinton was president.
The highest WPDs were in 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 when Bush was president.

*'+' indicates a margin-shift in the vote-count in favor of the Republican'&minus;' in favor of the Democrat
[div align="center"style="margin-top:2em;width:94em;font-family:Arial,Verdana;font-size:11px;line-height:1.2"][div style="clear:left;float:left;width:4em;font-weight:bold;text-align:left"]


2008
2004
2000
1996
1992
1988[/quote][div style="float:left;width:3.5em"]Votes
Cast

7722
7698
7004
6823
7613
7174[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]
Recorded

7595
7391
6823
6316
6927
6486[/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:3.5em;text-align:left"][div style="width:3.45em;text-align:center"]Net
Unctd[/quote]
[div style="width:2.4em;text-align:right"]127
307
181
507
686
688[/quote][/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:5em;text-align:left"][div style="width:4.95em;text-align:center"]%
Unctd[/quote]
[div style="width:3.3em;text-align:right"]1.6
4.0
2.6
7.4
9.0
9.6[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:2.0em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:12em;border-top:solid 1px;text-align:center"]NY Unadj Exit Poll % (A)[div style="float:left;width:1.3em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:2.5em;text-align:center"]Dem

67.4
64.5
61.9
58.4
52.0
55.2[/quote][div style="float:left;width:2.5em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:2.5em;text-align:center"]Rep

31.8
34.0
33.6
31.7
31.6
43.9[/quote][div style="float:left;width:1.7em;text-align:center"]

(1)




[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:.7em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:10.6em;border-top:solid 1px;text-align:center"]NY Vote-Count % (B)[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"]Dem

62.8
58.4
60.2
59.5
49.7
51.6[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Rep

36.1
40.1
35.2
30.6
33.9
47.5[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:0.7em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:12.5em;border-top:solid 1px;text-align:center"]NY Vote-Count Adj % (2)[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em;text-align:center"]Dem

63.0
59.0
60.6
60.6
52.0
53.9[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Rep

35.9
39.5
35.0
30.2
33.1
45.4[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:3em"][/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:5.7em;border-top:solid 1px;text-align:left"][div style="width:5.45em;text-align:center"](A - B)* NY
WPD %[/quote]
[div style="float:left;width:3.4em;text-align:right"]+8.9
+12.2
+3.3
-2.1
+4.6
+7.2[/quote][div style="float:left;width:1.7em;text-align:right"](1)




[/quote][/quote][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height:1.0"][/quote]
[div align="center"style="clear:left;font-family:Arial,Verdana;width:87em;font-size:10px"]2004 New York True Vote
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em;margin-left:5em;border:solid;border-width:2 1 0 2"]NY[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:15em;border:solid;border-width:2 2 0 0"]Vote (mil)[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]2004[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:2 1 0 2"]Pct[/quote][div style="float:left;width:15em;border:solid;border-width:2 1 0 0"]Share %[/quote][div style="float:left;width:20.0em;min-width:20.1em;border:solid;border-width:2 2 0 0"]TrueVote (mil)[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;margin-left:5em;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 1 2"]2000[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Cast[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Recorded[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 2 1 0"]Alive[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em"]Turnout[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 1 2"]Mix[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Kerry[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Bush[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 1 0"]Other[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Kerry[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Bush[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Other[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5.0em;min-width:5.1em;border:solid;border-width:0 2 1 0"]Total[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;margin-left:5em;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 2 2"]DNV
Gore
Bush
Other



2000
Recorded
ExitP
Cast
True[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"] -
4.2
2.4
0.3

7

Gore
60.2
61.9
60.6
61.1[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"] -
4.1
2.4
0.3

6.8

Bush
35.2
33.6
34.9
34.4[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 2 2 0"] -
4
2.3
0.3

6.7

Other
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.5[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"][div align="right"style="width:3em"]1.2
4.0
2.3
0.3

7.7[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 2 2"]15.3
51.3
29.6
3.8

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]True Vote
[/quote]
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]Recorded[/quote]Diff
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]Exit Poll[/quote]Diff[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"]66
92.9
12.1
64

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]63.8[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]58.4[/quote]5.4
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]64.5[/quote]-0.7[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"]30.9
5.6
87.9
6.8

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]33.9[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]40.1[/quote]-6.2
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]34.0[/quote]-0.1[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 2 0"]3.1
1.5
0
29.2

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]3.4[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]1.5[/quote]0.8
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]1.5[/quote]0.8[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"]0.8
3.7
0.3
0.2

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]4.9[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]4.3[/quote]0.6
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]4.8[/quote]0.1[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"]0.4
0.2
2.0
0.0

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]2.6[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]3.0[/quote]-0.4
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]2.5[/quote]0.1[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 2 0"]0
0.1
0
0.1

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]0.2[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]0.1[/quote]0.1
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]0.1[/quote]0.1[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 2 2 0"]1.2
4.0
2.3
0.3

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]7.7[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]7.4[/quote]0.3
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]7.4[/quote]0.3[/quote][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height:1.0"][/quote]
[div align="center"style="clear:left;font-family:Arial,Verdana;width:87em;font-size:10px"]2008 New York True Vote
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em;margin-left:5em;border:solid;border-width:2 1 0 2"]NY[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:15em;border:solid;border-width:2 2 0 0"]Vote (mil)[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]2008[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:2 1 0 2"]Pct[/quote][div style="float:left;width:15em;border:solid;border-width:2 1 0 0"]Share %[/quote][div style="float:left;width:20.0em;min-width:20.1em;border:solid;border-width:2 2 0 0"]TrueVote (mil)[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;margin-left:5em;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 1 2"]2004[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Cast[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Recorded[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 2 1 0"]Alive[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em"]Turnout[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 1 2"]Mix[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Obama[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]McCain[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 1 0"]Other[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Obama[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]McCain[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 0 1 0"]Other[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5.0em;min-width:5.1em;border:solid;border-width:0 2 1 0"]Total[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;margin-left:5em;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 2 2"]DNV
Kerry
Bush
Other

TRUE

2004
Recorded
ExitP
Cast
TRUE[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"] -
4.9
2.6
0.1

7.7

Kerry
58.4
64.5
59
64.1[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"] -
4.3
3
0.1

7.4

Bush
40.1
34
39.4
34.4[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 2 2 0"] -
4.7
2.5
0.1

7.3

Other
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"][div align="right"style="width:3em"]0.6
4.5
2.4
0.1

7.7[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 2 2"]8.1
58.9
31.6
1.4

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]True Vote
[/quote]
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]Recorded[/quote]Diff
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]Exit Poll[/quote]Diff[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"]78.1
91.1
20.2
66.0

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]67.3[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]62.8[/quote]4.5
[div align="right"style="border-top:solid 1px"]data still[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"]21.9
8.2
79.1
21.7

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]31.9[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]36.1[/quote]-4.2
[div align="center"style="border-top:solid 1px"]withheld[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border:solid;border-width:0 1 2 0"]0.0
0.7
0.7
12.3

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]0.8[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]1.1[/quote]-0.3
[div align="left"style="border-top:solid 1px"]by MSM[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"]0.5
4.1
0.5
0.1

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]5.2[/quote]

[div style="border-top:solid 1px"]4.8[/quote]0.4
[div style="border-top:solid 1px"][/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-bottom:solid 2px"]0.1
0.4
1.9

Oregon vs. New York Voting Systems

New York Voting System Vulnerabilities:
- Defective levers in the most democratic precincts – undercount votes
- Too few levers in Democratic precincts – long lines
- Pre-set levers stuck on Bush – discourage voters
- Late provisional and absentee paper ballots not counted on Election Day
- Lever totals input to PROGRAMMABLE central tabulators
- No hand recounts – there are no paper ballots to count (except for late votes)


New York Facts:

2000-2008:
Democratic late (paper ballot) vote share 7% higher than Election Day (lever) but matched the unadjusted exit polls

Gore 2000:
25% recorded margin (60-35%) - 2% exit poll discrepancy

Kerry 2004:
18% recorded margin (58-40%) - 12% exit poll discrepancy

Obama 2008:
27% recorded margin (63-36%) – exit polls not released


Oregon Voting System Advantages
- Vote exclusively by mail-in ballots (80% turnout)
- Count votes in selected locations by optical scanners
- Mandate random hand-recounts to prevent hacking of optical scanners

OR Facts:
Gore 2000:
Recorded 0.5% margin was an exact match to National

Kerry 2004:
Recorded 4.2% margin was near match to 5% aggregate unadjusted state exit polls
Compare to Kerry’s -2.4% recorded National margin deficit

Obama 2008:
Recorded 56.7% OR share near match to 57.1% True Vote model
Compare his 52.9% recorded National share vs.58.0% National True Vote model