Campaign Funding Allocation Model

The objective of this model is to determine an optimal allocation for Obama campaign funding in competitive states so as to maximize his electoral vote. Competitive states are defined as those in which the current polling spread is within the 4% margin of error.

The model uses a weighting method based on the poll spread combined with the electoral vote factor in order to determine the optimal allocation. States in which Obama and McCain are most competitive (tied) have the highest weight (9); states in which the spread is equal to 8% (at the MoE limit) have the lowest weight (1).

The results indicate that as of 7/27, Obama should spend 53% of his funds in the following five states in order to maximize his prospective electoral vote: FL (16.1%), OH (12.0%), VA (8.9%), MO (8.5%), IN (7.5%).

That these states are critical is by no means a revelation. But the model provides further insight by effectively ranking them in importance by deriving the optimal funding allocation.

The 2008 Election Model is updated frequently for latest state and national polls. It projects aggregate state and national vote shares, the expected electoral vote and state and national win probabilities (popular and EV).

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm

Optimal Obama Funds Allocation for Competitive states
(weighted by 7/27 poll spread and electoral vote)



EV Obama McCain Diff wt ev*wt Pct
AK 3 41 48 (7) 2 6 0.5%
AZ 10 42 39 3 6 60 5.1%
CO 9 47 45 2 7 63 5.4%
FL 27 49 47 2 7 189 16.1%
IN 11 48 47 1 8 88 7.5%

IA 7 50 42 8 1 7 0.6%
KY 8 39 44 (5) 4 32 2.7%
MI 17 46 42 4 5 85 7.3%
MN 10 49 41 8 1 10 0.9%
MO 11 45 45 0 9 99 8.5%

MT 3 48 43 5 4 12 1.0%
NV 5 47 45 2 7 35 3.0%
NH 4 47 43 4 5 20 1.7%
NM 5 49 43 6 3 15 1.3%
NC 15 43 47 (4) 5 75 6.4%

ND 3 42 45 (3) 6 18 1.5%
OH 20 47 45 2 7 140 12.0%
OK 7 37 42 (5) 4 28 2.4%
PA 21 49 41 8 1 21 1.8%
SD 3 43 47 (4) 5 15 1.3%

TN 11 36 41 (5) 4 44 3.8%
VA 13 47 46 1 8 104 8.9%
WV 5 37 45 (8) 1 5 0.4%