TruthIsAll
04-04-2009, 07:20 AM
The Quick Election Calculator
TruthIsAll
April 4, 2009
The Quick Election Calculator (QEC) is an Excel model for calculating the True Vote.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/QuickElectionCalculator.htm
The QEC is a compact version of the full 1988-2008 Election Calculator. It determines the number of prior election returning voters based on current and prior election total votes cast (recorded plus uncounted), voter mortality and turnout shares. The number of new voters in the current election is the difference between total votes cast and prior election returning voters.
The model calculates a feasible returning voter mix, but to determine the True Vote, it needs a plausible set of corresponding vote shares. An input code (1-5) selects vote shares from the National Exit Poll timeline or from user estimates. The QEC is an unbiased number-cruncher which calculates vote shares over a range of scenarios ("sensitivity analysis").
Some argue that the exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote cannot prove if an election was stolen. But that’s not a valid criticism. The question should be: Do the exit polls, in conjunction with the pre-election and approval polls, indicate that fraud was likely? In 2004, pre-election and exit polls (state and national) closely matched Bush’s 48% job approval. The QEC determined that Kerry’s True Vote share was 53% (the unadjusted exit poll had him at 52%).
Democrats do better in unadjusted and preliminary exit polls than in the recorded vote. The Final National Exit Poll is always matched to the recorded vote count. But what if the count is corrupted? We know that millions of votes are uncounted in every election - and 70-80% are Democratic. From 1988-2008, uncounted votes accounted for 30% of the discrepancy between the preliminary and final exit polls (i.e. the recorded vote). In 2004, 125.74 million votes were cast and 122.3 recorded.
In 2000, 110.83 million were cast and 105.42 recorded, so Gore must have won by at least 3 million votes (his official margin was 540,000). In 1992, Clinton won by almost 6.0 million recorded votes, but since approximately 9.5million were uncounted, his True margin was at least 11 million. These are conservative estimates; they assume no ballot stuffing or vote-switching.
In 2004, Kerry led the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-47%. The exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 29 states in favor of Bush – an impossible occurrence. The preliminary National Exit Poll had a 1.1% MoE with Kerry winning by 51-48%. The probabilities are a compelling circumstantial case for fraud and were confirmed by the overwhelming documented evidence of corrupted vote counts in Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, etc. See 2004-2006 Election Fraud Analytics for details.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ElectionCalculator_19882004_image001.gif
_________________________________________________________________________
TruthIsAll
4/6/2009
Input data in blue cells
Prior Cast Record Gore Bush Other Margin
2000 110.83 105.42 51.004 50.456 3.960 0.548
48.38% 47.86% 3.76% 0.52%
Current Cast Record Kerry Bush Other Margin
2004 125.736 122.294 59.027 62.040 1.227 -3.01
48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
4 yr voter mortality 4.80%
2004 Final National Exit Poll - forced to match the recorded vote
Vote shares Votes
Voted Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.79 17% 54% 45% 1% 11.23 9.36 0.21
Gore 45.25 37% 90% 10% 0% 40.72 4.52 0.00
Bush 52.59 43% 9% 91% 0% 4.73 47.85 0.00
Other 3.67 3% 71% 21% 8% 2.60 0.77 0.29
Total 122.29 100.00% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 59.29 62.50 0.50
Margin -3.22
Code: Enter 1 to input estimates or 2,3,4,5 to choose from National Exit Poll (NEP) timeline
Kerry NEP share of new and returning 2000 voters
Code Est. 4pm 730pm 1222am Final
4 1 2 3 4 5
DNV 60% 62% 59% 57% 54%
Gore 90% 91% 91% 91% 90%
Bush 10% 10% 10% 10% 9%
Other 70% 64% 64% 64% 64%
True Vote
2000 2004
Record Votes Unctd% Unctd Total Died Alive Turnout Voted
Gore 51.00 75% 4.06 55.06 2.64 52.42 98% 51.37
Bush 50.46 20% 1.08 51.54 2.47 49.06 98% 48.08
Other 3.96 5% 0.27 4.23 0.20 4.03 98% 3.95
Total 105.42 100.00% 5.41 110.83 5.32 105.51 98.0% 103.40
NEP
1222am Vote shares Votes
Voted Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 22.34 17.76% 57% 41% 2% 12.73 9.16 0.45
Gore 51.37 40.86% 91% 8% 1% 46.75 4.11 0.51
Bush 48.08 38.24% 10% 90% 0% 4.81 43.27 0.00
Other 3.95 3.14% 64% 17% 19% 2.53 0.67 0.75
Total 125.736 100.00% 53.14% 45.50% 1.36% 66.81 57.21 1.71
Margin 9.60
Record 122.294 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% 59.027 62.040 1.227
Margin -3.01
Sensitivity Analysis 1
Kerry Kerry Vote Share
% of
Bush Kerry % of Gore
53.14% 81% 83% 85% 87% 89% 91%
10.0% 49.1% 49.9% 50.7% 51.5% 52.3% 53.1%
9.0% 48.7% 49.5% 50.3% 51.1% 51.9% 52.8%
8.0% 48.3% 49.1% 49.9% 50.7% 51.6% 52.4%
7.0% 47.9% 48.7% 49.5% 50.4% 51.2% 52.0%
6.0% 47.5% 48.3% 49.2% 50.0% 50.8% 51.6%
Kerry Vote Margin
10.0% (0.67) 1.38 3.44 5.49 7.54 9.60
9.0% (1.64) 0.42 2.47 4.53 6.58 8.64
8.0% (2.60) (0.54) 1.51 3.57 5.62 7.68
7.0% (3.56) (1.50) 0.55 2.61 4.66 6.71
6.0% (4.52) (2.47) (0.41) 1.64 3.70 5.75
Sensitivity Analysis 2
Returning Kerry Vote Share
Bush
Turnout Returning Gore Voter Turnout
53.14% 88.0% 90.0% 92.0% 94.0% 96.0% 98.0%
88.0% 53.6% 53.8% 54.1% 54.4% 54.7% 55.0%
90.0% 53.2% 53.5% 53.8% 54.0% 54.3% 54.6%
92.0% 52.8% 53.1% 53.4% 53.7% 54.0% 54.2%
94.0% 52.5% 52.7% 53.0% 53.3% 53.6% 53.9%
96.0% 52.1% 52.4% 52.7% 52.9% 53.2% 53.5%
98.0% 51.7% 52.0% 52.3% 52.6% 52.9% 53.1%
Kerry Vote Margin
88.0% 10.80 11.50 12.20 12.91 13.61 14.31
90.0% 9.86 10.56 11.26 11.96 12.67 13.37
92.0% 8.91 9.62 10.32 11.02 11.72 12.43
94.0% 7.97 8.67 9.38 10.08 10.78 11.48
96.0% 7.03 7.73 8.43 9.14 9.84 10.54
98.0% 6.09 6.79 7.49 8.19 8.90 9.60
Sensitivity Analysis 3
Kerry Vote Share
Kerry
% Unctd Kerry Share of DNV
53.1% 53.0% 55.0% 57.0% 59.0% 61.0% 63.0%
75.0% 52.43% 52.78% 53.14% 53.49% 53.85% 54.20%
70.0% 52.37% 52.73% 53.08% 53.44% 53.79% 54.15%
65.0% 52.32% 52.67% 53.03% 53.38% 53.74% 54.09%
60.0% 52.26% 52.62% 52.97% 53.33% 53.69% 54.04%
55.0% 52.21% 52.57% 52.92% 53.28% 53.63% 53.99%
Kerry Vote Margin
75.0% 7.81 8.71 9.60 10.49 11.39 12.28
70.0% 7.72 8.62 9.51 10.40 11.30 12.19
65.0% 7.63 8.52 9.42 10.31 11.20 12.10
60.0% 7.54 8.43 9.33 10.22 11.11 12.01
55.0% 7.45 8.34 9.24 10.13 11.02 11.92
_________________________________________________________________________
2008 True Vote
Prior Cast Record Kerry Bush Other Margin
2004 125.736 122.294 64.000 57.000 1.294 7.000
52.33% 46.61% 1.06% 5.72%
Current Cast Record Obama McCain Other Margin
2008 135 131.37 69.460 59.920 1.990 9.54
52.87% 45.61% 1.51%
4 yr voter mortality 4.80%
2008 Final National Exit Poll - forced to match the recorded vote
Vote shares Votes
Voted Votes Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 17.08 13% 71% 27% 2% 12.13 4.61 0.34
Kerry 48.61 37% 89% 10% 1% 43.26 4.86 0.49
Bush 60.43 46% 17% 82% 1% 10.27 49.55 0.60
Other 5.25 4% 64% 26% 10% 3.36 1.37 0.53
Total 131.37 100.00% 52.54% 45.97% 1.49% 69.02 60.39 1.96
Margin 8.63
Obama NEP share of new and returning 2004 voters
Code Est. 4pm 730pm 1222am Final
1 1 2 3 4 5
DNV 71% 62% 59% 57% 54%
Kerry 89% 91% 91% 91% 90%
Bush 17% 10% 10% 10% 9%
Other 64% 64% 64% 64% 64%
_______________________________________________________________________________
2008 True Vote
2004 2008
Record Votes Unctd% Unctd Total Died Alive Turnout Voted
Kerry 64.00 75% 2.58 66.58 3.20 63.39 98% 62.12
Bush 57.00 25% 0.86 57.86 2.78 55.08 98% 53.98
Other 1.29 0% 0.00 1.29 0.06 1.23 98% 1.21
Total 122.29 100.00% 3.44 125.74 6.04 119.70 98.0% 117.31
NEP
Estimate Vote shares Votes
Voted Votes Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 17.69 13.11% 71% 27% 2% 12.56 4.78 0.35
Kerry 62.12 46.01% 89% 10% 1% 55.28 6.21 0.62
Bush 53.98 39.99% 17% 82% 1% 9.18 44.26 0.54
Other 1.21 0.89% 64% 26% 10% 0.77 0.31 0.12
Total 135.000 100.00% 57.63% 41.16% 1.21% 77.80 55.57 1.64
Margin 22.23
Record 131.37 52.87% 45.61% 1.51% 69.460 59.920 1.990
Margin 9.54
_______________________________________________________________________________
Sensitivity Analysis 1
Obama Obama Vote Share
% of
Bush Obama % of Kerry
57.63% 79% 81% 83% 85% 87% 89%
17% 53.0% 53.9% 54.9% 55.8% 56.7% 57.6%
16% 52.6% 53.5% 54.5% 55.4% 56.3% 57.2%
15% 52.2% 53.1% 54.1% 55.0% 55.9% 56.8%
14% 51.8% 52.7% 53.7% 54.6% 55.5% 56.4%
13% 51.4% 52.3% 53.3% 54.2% 55.1% 56.0%
Obama Vote Margin
17% 9.81 12.29 14.77 17.26 19.74 22.23
16% 8.73 11.21 13.70 16.18 18.66 21.15
15% 7.65 10.13 12.62 15.10 17.58 20.07
14% 6.57 9.05 11.54 14.02 16.51 18.99
13% 5.49 7.97 10.46 12.94 15.43 17.91
Sensitivity Analysis 2
Returning Obama Vote Share
Bush
Turnout Returning Kerry Voter Turnout
57.63% 88.0% 90.0% 92.0% 94.0% 96.0% 98.0%
88.0% 59.0% 59.2% 59.3% 59.5% 59.7% 59.8%
90.0% 58.5% 58.7% 58.9% 59.1% 59.2% 59.4%
92.0% 58.1% 58.3% 58.4% 58.6% 58.8% 58.9%
94.0% 57.7% 57.8% 58.0% 58.2% 58.3% 58.5%
96.0% 57.2% 57.4% 57.6% 57.7% 57.9% 58.1%
98.0% 56.8% 57.0% 57.1% 57.3% 57.5% 57.6%
Obama Vote Margin
88.0% 26.01 26.46 26.90 27.35 27.79 28.23
90.0% 24.81 25.26 25.70 26.14 26.59 27.03
92.0% 23.61 24.06 24.50 24.94 25.39 25.83
94.0% 22.41 22.86 23.30 23.74 24.19 24.63
96.0% 21.21 21.65 22.10 22.54 22.99 23.43
98.0% 20.01 20.45 20.90 21.34 21.79 22.23
Sensitivity Analysis 3
Obama Vote Share
Obama
% Unctd Obama Share of DNV
57.6% 61.0% 63.0% 65.0% 67.0% 69.0% 71.0%
75.0% 56.32% 56.58% 56.84% 57.10% 57.37% 57.63%
70.0% 56.29% 56.55% 56.81% 57.07% 57.34% 57.60%
65.0% 56.26% 56.52% 56.78% 57.04% 57.31% 57.57%
60.0% 56.23% 56.49% 56.75% 57.01% 57.28% 57.54%
55.0% 56.20% 56.46% 56.72% 56.98% 57.25% 57.51%
Obama Vote Margin
75.0% 18.69 19.40 20.11 20.81 21.52 22.23
70.0% 18.62 19.33 20.04 20.75 21.46 22.16
65.0% 18.56 19.27 19.97 20.68 21.39 22.10
60.0% 18.49 19.20 19.91 20.62 21.32 22.03
55.0% 18.43 19.13 19.84 20.55 21.26 21.97
TruthIsAll
April 4, 2009
The Quick Election Calculator (QEC) is an Excel model for calculating the True Vote.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/QuickElectionCalculator.htm
The QEC is a compact version of the full 1988-2008 Election Calculator. It determines the number of prior election returning voters based on current and prior election total votes cast (recorded plus uncounted), voter mortality and turnout shares. The number of new voters in the current election is the difference between total votes cast and prior election returning voters.
The model calculates a feasible returning voter mix, but to determine the True Vote, it needs a plausible set of corresponding vote shares. An input code (1-5) selects vote shares from the National Exit Poll timeline or from user estimates. The QEC is an unbiased number-cruncher which calculates vote shares over a range of scenarios ("sensitivity analysis").
Some argue that the exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote cannot prove if an election was stolen. But that’s not a valid criticism. The question should be: Do the exit polls, in conjunction with the pre-election and approval polls, indicate that fraud was likely? In 2004, pre-election and exit polls (state and national) closely matched Bush’s 48% job approval. The QEC determined that Kerry’s True Vote share was 53% (the unadjusted exit poll had him at 52%).
Democrats do better in unadjusted and preliminary exit polls than in the recorded vote. The Final National Exit Poll is always matched to the recorded vote count. But what if the count is corrupted? We know that millions of votes are uncounted in every election - and 70-80% are Democratic. From 1988-2008, uncounted votes accounted for 30% of the discrepancy between the preliminary and final exit polls (i.e. the recorded vote). In 2004, 125.74 million votes were cast and 122.3 recorded.
In 2000, 110.83 million were cast and 105.42 recorded, so Gore must have won by at least 3 million votes (his official margin was 540,000). In 1992, Clinton won by almost 6.0 million recorded votes, but since approximately 9.5million were uncounted, his True margin was at least 11 million. These are conservative estimates; they assume no ballot stuffing or vote-switching.
In 2004, Kerry led the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-47%. The exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 29 states in favor of Bush – an impossible occurrence. The preliminary National Exit Poll had a 1.1% MoE with Kerry winning by 51-48%. The probabilities are a compelling circumstantial case for fraud and were confirmed by the overwhelming documented evidence of corrupted vote counts in Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, etc. See 2004-2006 Election Fraud Analytics for details.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ElectionCalculator_19882004_image001.gif
_________________________________________________________________________
TruthIsAll
4/6/2009
Input data in blue cells
Prior Cast Record Gore Bush Other Margin
2000 110.83 105.42 51.004 50.456 3.960 0.548
48.38% 47.86% 3.76% 0.52%
Current Cast Record Kerry Bush Other Margin
2004 125.736 122.294 59.027 62.040 1.227 -3.01
48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
4 yr voter mortality 4.80%
2004 Final National Exit Poll - forced to match the recorded vote
Vote shares Votes
Voted Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.79 17% 54% 45% 1% 11.23 9.36 0.21
Gore 45.25 37% 90% 10% 0% 40.72 4.52 0.00
Bush 52.59 43% 9% 91% 0% 4.73 47.85 0.00
Other 3.67 3% 71% 21% 8% 2.60 0.77 0.29
Total 122.29 100.00% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 59.29 62.50 0.50
Margin -3.22
Code: Enter 1 to input estimates or 2,3,4,5 to choose from National Exit Poll (NEP) timeline
Kerry NEP share of new and returning 2000 voters
Code Est. 4pm 730pm 1222am Final
4 1 2 3 4 5
DNV 60% 62% 59% 57% 54%
Gore 90% 91% 91% 91% 90%
Bush 10% 10% 10% 10% 9%
Other 70% 64% 64% 64% 64%
True Vote
2000 2004
Record Votes Unctd% Unctd Total Died Alive Turnout Voted
Gore 51.00 75% 4.06 55.06 2.64 52.42 98% 51.37
Bush 50.46 20% 1.08 51.54 2.47 49.06 98% 48.08
Other 3.96 5% 0.27 4.23 0.20 4.03 98% 3.95
Total 105.42 100.00% 5.41 110.83 5.32 105.51 98.0% 103.40
NEP
1222am Vote shares Votes
Voted Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 22.34 17.76% 57% 41% 2% 12.73 9.16 0.45
Gore 51.37 40.86% 91% 8% 1% 46.75 4.11 0.51
Bush 48.08 38.24% 10% 90% 0% 4.81 43.27 0.00
Other 3.95 3.14% 64% 17% 19% 2.53 0.67 0.75
Total 125.736 100.00% 53.14% 45.50% 1.36% 66.81 57.21 1.71
Margin 9.60
Record 122.294 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% 59.027 62.040 1.227
Margin -3.01
Sensitivity Analysis 1
Kerry Kerry Vote Share
% of
Bush Kerry % of Gore
53.14% 81% 83% 85% 87% 89% 91%
10.0% 49.1% 49.9% 50.7% 51.5% 52.3% 53.1%
9.0% 48.7% 49.5% 50.3% 51.1% 51.9% 52.8%
8.0% 48.3% 49.1% 49.9% 50.7% 51.6% 52.4%
7.0% 47.9% 48.7% 49.5% 50.4% 51.2% 52.0%
6.0% 47.5% 48.3% 49.2% 50.0% 50.8% 51.6%
Kerry Vote Margin
10.0% (0.67) 1.38 3.44 5.49 7.54 9.60
9.0% (1.64) 0.42 2.47 4.53 6.58 8.64
8.0% (2.60) (0.54) 1.51 3.57 5.62 7.68
7.0% (3.56) (1.50) 0.55 2.61 4.66 6.71
6.0% (4.52) (2.47) (0.41) 1.64 3.70 5.75
Sensitivity Analysis 2
Returning Kerry Vote Share
Bush
Turnout Returning Gore Voter Turnout
53.14% 88.0% 90.0% 92.0% 94.0% 96.0% 98.0%
88.0% 53.6% 53.8% 54.1% 54.4% 54.7% 55.0%
90.0% 53.2% 53.5% 53.8% 54.0% 54.3% 54.6%
92.0% 52.8% 53.1% 53.4% 53.7% 54.0% 54.2%
94.0% 52.5% 52.7% 53.0% 53.3% 53.6% 53.9%
96.0% 52.1% 52.4% 52.7% 52.9% 53.2% 53.5%
98.0% 51.7% 52.0% 52.3% 52.6% 52.9% 53.1%
Kerry Vote Margin
88.0% 10.80 11.50 12.20 12.91 13.61 14.31
90.0% 9.86 10.56 11.26 11.96 12.67 13.37
92.0% 8.91 9.62 10.32 11.02 11.72 12.43
94.0% 7.97 8.67 9.38 10.08 10.78 11.48
96.0% 7.03 7.73 8.43 9.14 9.84 10.54
98.0% 6.09 6.79 7.49 8.19 8.90 9.60
Sensitivity Analysis 3
Kerry Vote Share
Kerry
% Unctd Kerry Share of DNV
53.1% 53.0% 55.0% 57.0% 59.0% 61.0% 63.0%
75.0% 52.43% 52.78% 53.14% 53.49% 53.85% 54.20%
70.0% 52.37% 52.73% 53.08% 53.44% 53.79% 54.15%
65.0% 52.32% 52.67% 53.03% 53.38% 53.74% 54.09%
60.0% 52.26% 52.62% 52.97% 53.33% 53.69% 54.04%
55.0% 52.21% 52.57% 52.92% 53.28% 53.63% 53.99%
Kerry Vote Margin
75.0% 7.81 8.71 9.60 10.49 11.39 12.28
70.0% 7.72 8.62 9.51 10.40 11.30 12.19
65.0% 7.63 8.52 9.42 10.31 11.20 12.10
60.0% 7.54 8.43 9.33 10.22 11.11 12.01
55.0% 7.45 8.34 9.24 10.13 11.02 11.92
_________________________________________________________________________
2008 True Vote
Prior Cast Record Kerry Bush Other Margin
2004 125.736 122.294 64.000 57.000 1.294 7.000
52.33% 46.61% 1.06% 5.72%
Current Cast Record Obama McCain Other Margin
2008 135 131.37 69.460 59.920 1.990 9.54
52.87% 45.61% 1.51%
4 yr voter mortality 4.80%
2008 Final National Exit Poll - forced to match the recorded vote
Vote shares Votes
Voted Votes Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 17.08 13% 71% 27% 2% 12.13 4.61 0.34
Kerry 48.61 37% 89% 10% 1% 43.26 4.86 0.49
Bush 60.43 46% 17% 82% 1% 10.27 49.55 0.60
Other 5.25 4% 64% 26% 10% 3.36 1.37 0.53
Total 131.37 100.00% 52.54% 45.97% 1.49% 69.02 60.39 1.96
Margin 8.63
Obama NEP share of new and returning 2004 voters
Code Est. 4pm 730pm 1222am Final
1 1 2 3 4 5
DNV 71% 62% 59% 57% 54%
Kerry 89% 91% 91% 91% 90%
Bush 17% 10% 10% 10% 9%
Other 64% 64% 64% 64% 64%
_______________________________________________________________________________
2008 True Vote
2004 2008
Record Votes Unctd% Unctd Total Died Alive Turnout Voted
Kerry 64.00 75% 2.58 66.58 3.20 63.39 98% 62.12
Bush 57.00 25% 0.86 57.86 2.78 55.08 98% 53.98
Other 1.29 0% 0.00 1.29 0.06 1.23 98% 1.21
Total 122.29 100.00% 3.44 125.74 6.04 119.70 98.0% 117.31
NEP
Estimate Vote shares Votes
Voted Votes Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 17.69 13.11% 71% 27% 2% 12.56 4.78 0.35
Kerry 62.12 46.01% 89% 10% 1% 55.28 6.21 0.62
Bush 53.98 39.99% 17% 82% 1% 9.18 44.26 0.54
Other 1.21 0.89% 64% 26% 10% 0.77 0.31 0.12
Total 135.000 100.00% 57.63% 41.16% 1.21% 77.80 55.57 1.64
Margin 22.23
Record 131.37 52.87% 45.61% 1.51% 69.460 59.920 1.990
Margin 9.54
_______________________________________________________________________________
Sensitivity Analysis 1
Obama Obama Vote Share
% of
Bush Obama % of Kerry
57.63% 79% 81% 83% 85% 87% 89%
17% 53.0% 53.9% 54.9% 55.8% 56.7% 57.6%
16% 52.6% 53.5% 54.5% 55.4% 56.3% 57.2%
15% 52.2% 53.1% 54.1% 55.0% 55.9% 56.8%
14% 51.8% 52.7% 53.7% 54.6% 55.5% 56.4%
13% 51.4% 52.3% 53.3% 54.2% 55.1% 56.0%
Obama Vote Margin
17% 9.81 12.29 14.77 17.26 19.74 22.23
16% 8.73 11.21 13.70 16.18 18.66 21.15
15% 7.65 10.13 12.62 15.10 17.58 20.07
14% 6.57 9.05 11.54 14.02 16.51 18.99
13% 5.49 7.97 10.46 12.94 15.43 17.91
Sensitivity Analysis 2
Returning Obama Vote Share
Bush
Turnout Returning Kerry Voter Turnout
57.63% 88.0% 90.0% 92.0% 94.0% 96.0% 98.0%
88.0% 59.0% 59.2% 59.3% 59.5% 59.7% 59.8%
90.0% 58.5% 58.7% 58.9% 59.1% 59.2% 59.4%
92.0% 58.1% 58.3% 58.4% 58.6% 58.8% 58.9%
94.0% 57.7% 57.8% 58.0% 58.2% 58.3% 58.5%
96.0% 57.2% 57.4% 57.6% 57.7% 57.9% 58.1%
98.0% 56.8% 57.0% 57.1% 57.3% 57.5% 57.6%
Obama Vote Margin
88.0% 26.01 26.46 26.90 27.35 27.79 28.23
90.0% 24.81 25.26 25.70 26.14 26.59 27.03
92.0% 23.61 24.06 24.50 24.94 25.39 25.83
94.0% 22.41 22.86 23.30 23.74 24.19 24.63
96.0% 21.21 21.65 22.10 22.54 22.99 23.43
98.0% 20.01 20.45 20.90 21.34 21.79 22.23
Sensitivity Analysis 3
Obama Vote Share
Obama
% Unctd Obama Share of DNV
57.6% 61.0% 63.0% 65.0% 67.0% 69.0% 71.0%
75.0% 56.32% 56.58% 56.84% 57.10% 57.37% 57.63%
70.0% 56.29% 56.55% 56.81% 57.07% 57.34% 57.60%
65.0% 56.26% 56.52% 56.78% 57.04% 57.31% 57.57%
60.0% 56.23% 56.49% 56.75% 57.01% 57.28% 57.54%
55.0% 56.20% 56.46% 56.72% 56.98% 57.25% 57.51%
Obama Vote Margin
75.0% 18.69 19.40 20.11 20.81 21.52 22.23
70.0% 18.62 19.33 20.04 20.75 21.46 22.16
65.0% 18.56 19.27 19.97 20.68 21.39 22.10
60.0% 18.49 19.20 19.91 20.62 21.32 22.03
55.0% 18.43 19.13 19.84 20.55 21.26 21.97