TruthIsAll
10-24-2009, 07:06 AM
Paid to project the Recorded Vote - not the True Vote
TruthIsAll
http://www.RichardCharnin.com/RecursiveTrueVoteModel.htm
Only some are aware that Final National Exit Poll (NEP) has always been forced to match the recorded vote. In several elections, forcing the match has required that there be more returning Republican voters from the previous election than were alive to vote - a key indicator of a fraudulent recorded vote. Yet forecasters, pollsters and media pundits always assume that the official vote count and final exit poll demographics represent the truth.
It’s ironic that a pollster who has correctly projected the True Vote (as opposed to the official, fraudulent recorded vote) is considered to be a failure while another who correctly predicted the recorded vote is considered to be an expert.
Pollsters, media pundits and political scientists must be well aware of the endemic fraud but they are paid to project the winner of the recorded vote, regardless of whether or not it is legitimate. They claim that final pre-election polls are correct when they match the official vote but are wrong if they don’t.
They get it “right” by disregarding important forecast indicators, such as the results of registered voter polls,undecided voters and approval ratings. And they compound the duplicity after the fact by avoiding a thorough analysis of exit poll anomalies that clearly point to fraud. Instead they blame the exit polls for “behaving badly”, as one writer once put it immediately after the 2004 election..
The media pundits never consider that votes may have been miscounted. They accept the official vote on “faith” without doing the proper analysis; looking for the True Vote could be a career-breaker. They claim the unadjusted, and preliminary exit polls have a Democratic bias (which they attribute to a higher response rate), but they fail to consider uncounted votes and voter turnout.
Two simple facts prove that official vote counts have been compromised in every election. The first is voter mortality. Obviously, there must be fewer returning voters from the previous election than actually voted. Approximately 5% of voters pass on during the four-year period between elections. Of those still living, 88% to 98% turn out to vote. Yet in a number of elections, the FINAL NATIONAL EXIT POLL indicated that Republican voter turnout exceeded 100% - an obvious impossibility.
The second is uncounted votes. According to government statistics and Census voting data, millions of votes are never counted in every election - a combination of absentee, provisional, late and spoiled ballots. The vast majority (70-80%) are Democratic.
Voter mortality and uncounted votes must be considered in analyzing pre-election and exit polls but media pundits and political scientists fail to do so. Why? Perhaps it’s because a rational analysis would prove that the recorded vote was BOGUS.
If they REALLY wanted to find the True Vote, they would make the appropriate adjustments for uncounted votes, voter mortality and turnout to calculate a FEASIBLE return voter mix. Then, and only then, should they apply the NEP vote shares to determine the True Vote.
The Recursive True Vote Model calculates the True Vote for all elections since 1968. Data input consists of recorded and total votes cast, Final National Exit Poll (1988-2008) and estimated vote shares (1968-1984) voter mortality and an estimate of previous election LIVING voter turnout in the current election. The returning voter mix can be calculated using the following methods -depending on the objective:
Method 1: The objective is to match the recorded vote. The Final NEP always adjusts the returning voter mix and/or vote shares to force a match to the recorded vote. This is standard operating procedure which requires the implicit assumption that the elections are fraud-free. Forcing a match to the official vote required millions of phantom Bush voters in 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 (turnout exceeded 100%). Therefore the official vote counts could not have been correct.
Method 2: The objective is to use a return voter mix based on the prior election RECORDED vote, disregarding millions of uncounted votes. It gets us closer to the True Vote.
Method 3: The objective is to determine theTrue Vote based on total votes CAST in the previous and current election. The cumulative effect of earlier elections is not taken into account.
Method 4: The Recursive True Vote eliminates the problem of the Final National Exit Poll perpetuating fraud by using an implausible or impossible returning voter mix to match a bogus vote count.
Starting with the 1968 election, the model sequentially derives a feasible returning vote mix based on True Vote shares cast in the previous election. The previous True Vote is the basis for calculating the return voter mix by applying voter mortality and LIVING VOTER TURNOUT in the current election. New voters are easily calculated as the difference between total votes cast in the current election and returning voters from the previous election.
The model used Final National Exit Poll vote shares in every election except 2004, when the 12:22am shares (13047 respondents) were radically changed to force the Final (13660) to match the recorded vote. The more trustworthy 12:22am vote shares were used to calculate the True Vote.
The model indicates that two elections were definitely stolen (2000 and 2004) and probably two others (1968 and 1988) as well. In order to match the official vote, there had to be an average 94% turnout of returning Democrats and 106% of Republicans.
The average Republican turnout was 114% when Nixon and Bush were the incumbents; it was 98% otherwise. The average True Vote discrepancy was 10.3% when Nixon and Bush were incumbents; it was 3.6% otherwise.
In 1968, Nixon defeated Humphrey by 500,000 votes.
There were 6 million uncounted.
Humphrey won the True Vote by 2 million.
In 1972, Nixon defeated McGovern by 17 million votes.
There were 9.5 million uncounted votes.
In 1976, Carter defeated Ford by 1.7 million votes.
There were 6.7 million uncounted.
Carter won the True Vote by 4.5 million.
In 1980, Reagan defeated Carter by 8 million votes.
There were 6.3 million uncounted.
In 1984, Reagan defeated Mondale by 17 million votes.
There were 9.2 million uncounted.
In 1988, Bush won the official vote by 7.0 million.
There were 10.6 million uncounted.
Dukakis may have won a squeaker.
In 1992, Clinton defeated Dole by 6million.
There were 9.5 million uncounted.
Independent candidate Ross Perot had 19% of the recorded vote.
Clinton won the True Vote by over 20 million.
In 1996, Clinton won the official vote by 8m.
There were 8.7 million uncounted.
Independent candidate Ross Perot had 10% of the vote.
Clinton won the True Vote by 16 million.
In 2000, Gore won the official vote by 0.54 million.
There were 5.4 million uncounted.
But he lost by 5-4 in the Supreme Court.
Gore won the True Vote by 4 million.
In 2004, Bush won the official vote by 3.0 million.
The Final National Exit Poll forced a match to the recorded vote.
It had an impossible 43/37% Bush/Gore returning voter split.
There were 3.4 million net uncounted.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million.
In 2008, Obama won the official vote by 9.5 million.
The Final NEP showed a 46/37% Bush/Kerry returning voter mix.
That means there were 12m more returning Bush than Kerry voters!
But Bush won the rigged recorded vote by just 3 million!
The Final NEP indicated there were 5 million (4%) returning third-party voters.
But there were only 1.2m third-party voters in 2004!
Obama won the True Vote by 22 million.
In mathematical terms,
i = election (1=1968 to 11=2008)
j = new and returning voters (1= new, 2=Dem, 3=Rep, 4=Other)
k = share of new and returning voters (1=Dem, 2=Rep, 3=Other)
MIX(i,j)= new and returning voter percentage (j) of election (i) total votes cast
NEP(i,j,k)= National Exit Poll shares of new and returning voters
Calculate True Vote shares for election (i)
TV (i,k) = sum(MIX(i,j)* NEP(i,j,k)), j=1,4; k=1,3
http://www.RichardCharnin.com/RecursiveTrueVoteModel6808_12627_image001.gif
http://www.RichardCharnin.com/RecursiveTrueVoteModel6808_8143_image001.gif
TruthIsAll
http://www.RichardCharnin.com/RecursiveTrueVoteModel.htm
Only some are aware that Final National Exit Poll (NEP) has always been forced to match the recorded vote. In several elections, forcing the match has required that there be more returning Republican voters from the previous election than were alive to vote - a key indicator of a fraudulent recorded vote. Yet forecasters, pollsters and media pundits always assume that the official vote count and final exit poll demographics represent the truth.
It’s ironic that a pollster who has correctly projected the True Vote (as opposed to the official, fraudulent recorded vote) is considered to be a failure while another who correctly predicted the recorded vote is considered to be an expert.
Pollsters, media pundits and political scientists must be well aware of the endemic fraud but they are paid to project the winner of the recorded vote, regardless of whether or not it is legitimate. They claim that final pre-election polls are correct when they match the official vote but are wrong if they don’t.
They get it “right” by disregarding important forecast indicators, such as the results of registered voter polls,undecided voters and approval ratings. And they compound the duplicity after the fact by avoiding a thorough analysis of exit poll anomalies that clearly point to fraud. Instead they blame the exit polls for “behaving badly”, as one writer once put it immediately after the 2004 election..
The media pundits never consider that votes may have been miscounted. They accept the official vote on “faith” without doing the proper analysis; looking for the True Vote could be a career-breaker. They claim the unadjusted, and preliminary exit polls have a Democratic bias (which they attribute to a higher response rate), but they fail to consider uncounted votes and voter turnout.
Two simple facts prove that official vote counts have been compromised in every election. The first is voter mortality. Obviously, there must be fewer returning voters from the previous election than actually voted. Approximately 5% of voters pass on during the four-year period between elections. Of those still living, 88% to 98% turn out to vote. Yet in a number of elections, the FINAL NATIONAL EXIT POLL indicated that Republican voter turnout exceeded 100% - an obvious impossibility.
The second is uncounted votes. According to government statistics and Census voting data, millions of votes are never counted in every election - a combination of absentee, provisional, late and spoiled ballots. The vast majority (70-80%) are Democratic.
Voter mortality and uncounted votes must be considered in analyzing pre-election and exit polls but media pundits and political scientists fail to do so. Why? Perhaps it’s because a rational analysis would prove that the recorded vote was BOGUS.
If they REALLY wanted to find the True Vote, they would make the appropriate adjustments for uncounted votes, voter mortality and turnout to calculate a FEASIBLE return voter mix. Then, and only then, should they apply the NEP vote shares to determine the True Vote.
The Recursive True Vote Model calculates the True Vote for all elections since 1968. Data input consists of recorded and total votes cast, Final National Exit Poll (1988-2008) and estimated vote shares (1968-1984) voter mortality and an estimate of previous election LIVING voter turnout in the current election. The returning voter mix can be calculated using the following methods -depending on the objective:
Method 1: The objective is to match the recorded vote. The Final NEP always adjusts the returning voter mix and/or vote shares to force a match to the recorded vote. This is standard operating procedure which requires the implicit assumption that the elections are fraud-free. Forcing a match to the official vote required millions of phantom Bush voters in 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 (turnout exceeded 100%). Therefore the official vote counts could not have been correct.
Method 2: The objective is to use a return voter mix based on the prior election RECORDED vote, disregarding millions of uncounted votes. It gets us closer to the True Vote.
Method 3: The objective is to determine theTrue Vote based on total votes CAST in the previous and current election. The cumulative effect of earlier elections is not taken into account.
Method 4: The Recursive True Vote eliminates the problem of the Final National Exit Poll perpetuating fraud by using an implausible or impossible returning voter mix to match a bogus vote count.
Starting with the 1968 election, the model sequentially derives a feasible returning vote mix based on True Vote shares cast in the previous election. The previous True Vote is the basis for calculating the return voter mix by applying voter mortality and LIVING VOTER TURNOUT in the current election. New voters are easily calculated as the difference between total votes cast in the current election and returning voters from the previous election.
The model used Final National Exit Poll vote shares in every election except 2004, when the 12:22am shares (13047 respondents) were radically changed to force the Final (13660) to match the recorded vote. The more trustworthy 12:22am vote shares were used to calculate the True Vote.
The model indicates that two elections were definitely stolen (2000 and 2004) and probably two others (1968 and 1988) as well. In order to match the official vote, there had to be an average 94% turnout of returning Democrats and 106% of Republicans.
The average Republican turnout was 114% when Nixon and Bush were the incumbents; it was 98% otherwise. The average True Vote discrepancy was 10.3% when Nixon and Bush were incumbents; it was 3.6% otherwise.
In 1968, Nixon defeated Humphrey by 500,000 votes.
There were 6 million uncounted.
Humphrey won the True Vote by 2 million.
In 1972, Nixon defeated McGovern by 17 million votes.
There were 9.5 million uncounted votes.
In 1976, Carter defeated Ford by 1.7 million votes.
There were 6.7 million uncounted.
Carter won the True Vote by 4.5 million.
In 1980, Reagan defeated Carter by 8 million votes.
There were 6.3 million uncounted.
In 1984, Reagan defeated Mondale by 17 million votes.
There were 9.2 million uncounted.
In 1988, Bush won the official vote by 7.0 million.
There were 10.6 million uncounted.
Dukakis may have won a squeaker.
In 1992, Clinton defeated Dole by 6million.
There were 9.5 million uncounted.
Independent candidate Ross Perot had 19% of the recorded vote.
Clinton won the True Vote by over 20 million.
In 1996, Clinton won the official vote by 8m.
There were 8.7 million uncounted.
Independent candidate Ross Perot had 10% of the vote.
Clinton won the True Vote by 16 million.
In 2000, Gore won the official vote by 0.54 million.
There were 5.4 million uncounted.
But he lost by 5-4 in the Supreme Court.
Gore won the True Vote by 4 million.
In 2004, Bush won the official vote by 3.0 million.
The Final National Exit Poll forced a match to the recorded vote.
It had an impossible 43/37% Bush/Gore returning voter split.
There were 3.4 million net uncounted.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million.
In 2008, Obama won the official vote by 9.5 million.
The Final NEP showed a 46/37% Bush/Kerry returning voter mix.
That means there were 12m more returning Bush than Kerry voters!
But Bush won the rigged recorded vote by just 3 million!
The Final NEP indicated there were 5 million (4%) returning third-party voters.
But there were only 1.2m third-party voters in 2004!
Obama won the True Vote by 22 million.
In mathematical terms,
i = election (1=1968 to 11=2008)
j = new and returning voters (1= new, 2=Dem, 3=Rep, 4=Other)
k = share of new and returning voters (1=Dem, 2=Rep, 3=Other)
MIX(i,j)= new and returning voter percentage (j) of election (i) total votes cast
NEP(i,j,k)= National Exit Poll shares of new and returning voters
Calculate True Vote shares for election (i)
TV (i,k) = sum(MIX(i,j)* NEP(i,j,k)), j=1,4; k=1,3
http://www.RichardCharnin.com/RecursiveTrueVoteModel6808_12627_image001.gif
http://www.RichardCharnin.com/RecursiveTrueVoteModel6808_8143_image001.gif