TruthIsAll
12-12-2009, 12:55 PM
Previous Election Returning Voter Turnout Required to Match the Recorded Vote
Final National Exit Poll (1972-2008)
TruthIsAll
[code]
Do the exit poll naysayers know any members of the "Dead Bush Voter Society"?
Apparently there are millions of them.
If so, they might want to contact Robin Williams. He knows his math and is very familiar with the Dead Poet Society.
Let's review the National Exit Poll voter turnout percentages since 1972.
It is important to keep in mind that the Final NEP is
***********ALWAYS FORCED TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE*************.
So what do these impossible turnout percentages tell us about the RECORDED VOTE?
The corporate media would have us believe that:
In 2008, 103% of living Bush 2004 voters returned to vote (60.5 of 58.9m).
But only 87% of living Kerry voters returned (48.6 of 56.1).
In 2004, 110% of living Bush 2000 voters returned to vote (52.6 of 47.9m).
But only 93% of living Gore voters returned (45.2 of 48.5).
You ain't seen nuthin' yet. Hold on to your seat.
In 1992, 119% of living Bush 1988 voters returned to vote (55.3 of 46.4m).
But only 74% of living Dukakis voters returned (29.2 of 39.7m).
In 1988, 103% of living Reagan/Bush 1984 voters returned to vote (53.1 of 51.7).
But only 85% of living Mondale voters returned (30.2 of 35.7).
But its not just Bush voters...
In 1972, 113% of living Nixon 1968 voters returned to vote (34.2 of 30.2).
But only 92% of living Humphrey voters returned (27.2 of 29.7m).
Notice a pattern?
Nah, nothing to see here; move right along.
Percentage of Living Voters from the Previous Election Required to Vote in the
Current Election in order to Match the Recorded Vote based on Final National Exit Polls
* indicates incumbent
Percentage of Previous Election Voters
Year Democrat Republican Incumbent (advantage)
2008 87 103* Bush +16
2004 93 110* Bush +17
2000 96* 93 Clinton +3
1996 86* 80 Clinton +6
1992 74 119* Bush +45
1988 85 103* Reagan/Bush +18
1984 93 98* Reagan +5
1980 94* 95 Carter -1
1976 91 96* Ford +5
1972 92 113* Nixon +21
2008
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 97%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 2008 National Exit Poll Voter %
2004 2004 2004 2008 2008 Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 17.1 13% 71% 27% 2% -
Kerry 48.3% 62.2 59.0 56.1 54.4 48.6 37% 89 9 2 87
Bush 50.7% 63.1 62.0 58.9 57.2 60.5 46% 17 82 1 103
Other 1.0% 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 5.3 4% 66 26 8 451
Margin
Total 126.5 122.3 116.2 112.7 131.5 Share 52.6% 45.6% 1.8% 7.0%
Vote 69.2 59.9 2.3 9.2
Recorded Share 52.9% 45.6% 1.5% 7.3%
Vote 131.5 69.5 60.0 2.0 9.6
Diff Error 0.2%
2004
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 98%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 2004 National Exit Poll Voter %
2000 2000 2000 2004 2004 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 20.8 17% 54% 45% 1% -
Gore 48.4% 55.3 51.0 48.5 47.5 45.2 37% 90 10 0 93
Bush 47.9% 51.8 50.5 47.9 47.0 52.6 43% 9 91 0 110
Other 3.8% 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.7 3% 71 21 8 98
Margin
Total 111.2 105.4 100.1 98.1 122.3 Share 48.5% 51.1% 0.4% -2.6%
Vote 59.3 62.5 0.5 -3.2
Recorded Share 48.3% 50.7% 1.0% -2.5%
Vote 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2 -3.0
Error 0.2%
2000
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 96%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 2000 National Exit Poll Voter %
1996 1996 1996 2000 2000 Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 19.0 18% 52% 43% 5% -
Clinton 49.2% 54.0 47.4 45.0 43.2 43.2 41% 82 15 3 96
Dole 40.7% 41.2 39.2 37.2 35.7 34.8 33% 7 91 2 93
Perot 10.1% 9.9 9.7 9.2 8.8 8.4 8% 39 49 12 92
Margin
Total 105.0 96.3 91.5 87.8 105.4 Share 48.4% 47.8% 3.8% 0.6%
Vote 51.0 50.4 4.0 0.6
Recorded Share 48.4% 47.9% 3.8% 0.5%
Vote 105.4 51.0 50.5 4.0 0.5
Error -0.1%
1996
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 88%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1996 National Exit Poll Voter %
1992 1992 1992 1996 1996 Turnout Mix Clinton Dole Perot Turnout
DNV - - - - DNV 12.5 13% 55% 33% 12% -
Clinton 43.0% 52.0 44.9 42.7 37.5 Clinton 36.6 38 85 9 6 86
Bush 37.4% 41.0 39.1 37.1 32.7 Bush 29.8 31 15 82 3 80
Perot 19.5% 20.9 20.4 19.4 17.1 Perot 17.3 18 29 42 29 89
Margin
Total 113.9 104.4 99.2 87.3 Total 96.281 Share 49.3% 40.7% 10.0% 8.6%
Vote 47.5 39.2 9.6 8.3
RecordedShare 49.2% 40.7% 10.1% 8.5%
Vote 96.3 47.4 39.2 9.7 8.2
1992
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 98%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1992 National Exit Poll Voter %
1988 1988 1988 1992 1992 Turnout Mix Clinton Bush Perot Turnout
DNV - - - - 19.1 18% 46% 25% 29% -
Dukakis 45.6% 49.8 41.8 39.7 38.9 29.2 28% 83 5 12 74
Bush 53.4% 51.5 48.9 46.4 45.5 55.3 53% 21 59 20 119
Other 1.0% 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 1% 32 30 38 85
Margin
Total 102.3 91.6 87.0 85.3 104.4 Share 43.0% 37.5% 19.5% 5.6%
Vote 44.9 39.1 20.4 5.8
Recorded Share 43.0% 37.4% 19.5% 5.6%
Vote 104.4 44.9 39.1 20.4 5.8
Error 0.0%
1988
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 94%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1988 National Exit Poll Voter %
1984 1984 1984 1988 1988 Turnout Mix Dukakis Bush Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 7.7 8% 47% 51% 2% -
Mondale 40.6% 44.5 37.6 35.7 33.6 30.2 33% 92 7 1 85
Reagan 58.8% 56.7 54.5 51.7 48.6 53.1 58% 19 80 1 103
Other 0.7% 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 1% 49 50 1 93
Margin
Total 101.9 92.7 88.0 82.7 91.6 Share 45.6% 53.3% 1.1% -7.7%
Vote 41.8 48.8 1.0 -7.0
Recorded Share 45.6% 53.4% 1.0% -7.7%
Vote 91.6 41.8 48.9 0.9 -7.1
Error -0.1%
1984
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 95%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1984 National Exit Poll Voter %
1980 1980 1980 1984 1984 Turnout Mix Mondale Reagan Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 14.8 16% 31% 68% 1% -
Carter 41.0% 40.4 35.5 33.7 32.0 31.5 34% 82 18 0 93
Reagan 50.7% 45.4 43.9 41.7 39.6 40.8 44% 11 88 1 98
Anderson 8.3% 7.3 7.2 6.8 6.5 5.6 6% 49 50 1 81
Margin
Total 93.1 86.6 82.2 78.1 92.7 Share 40.6% 58.7% 0.7% -18.1%
Vote 37.6 54.4 0.6 -16.8
Recorded Share 40.6% 58.8% 0.7% -18.2%
Vote 92.7 37.6 54.5 0.6 -16.9
Error -0.1%
1980
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 94%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1980 National Exit Poll Voter %
1976 1976 1976 1980 1980 Turnout Mix Carter Reagan Anderson Turnout
DNV - - - - 13.9 16% 39% 44% 17% -
Carter 50.1% 44.7 40.8 38.8 36.5 36.4 42% 71 22 7 94
Ford 48.0% 40.4 39.1 37.2 35.0 35.5 41% 11 83 6 95
Other 1.9% 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 0.9 1% 44 42 14 59
Margin
Total 86.7 81.5 77.5 72.8 86.6 Share 41.0% 50.7% 8.3% -9.7%
Vote 35.5 43.9 7.2 -8.4
Recorded Share 41.0% 50.7% 8.3% -9.7%
Vote 86.6 35.5 43.9 7.2 -8.4
Error 0.0%
1976
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 94%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1976 National Exit Poll Voter %
1972 1972 1972 1976 1976 Turnout Mix Carter Ford Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 11.8 15% 57% 40% 3% -
McGovern 36.2% 34.2 28.2 26.8 25.2 24.5 30% 92 7 1 91
Nixon 60.7% 49.1 47.2 44.8 42.1 43.2 53% 24 74 2 96
Other 3.1% 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 3% 58 39 3 89
Margin
Total 85.8 77.7 73.9 69.4 81.5 Share 50.0% 48.1% 1.9% 1.9%
Vote 40.8 39.2 1.5 1.6
Recorded Share 50.1% 48.0% 1.9% 2.1%
Vote 81.5 40.8 39.1 1.6 1.7
Error 0.1%
1972
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 92%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1972 National Exit Poll Voter %
1968 1968 1968 1972 1972 Turnout Mix McGovern Nixon Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 8.6 11% 43% 53% 4% -
Humphrey 42.9% 35.8 31.3 29.7 27.3 27.2 35% 71 28 1 92
Nixon 43.6% 33.1 31.8 30.2 27.8 34.2 44% 6 89 5 113
Wallace 13.6% 10.1 9.9 9.4 8.7 7.8 10% 40 59 1 83
Margin
Total 79.0 73.0 69.3 63.8 77.7 Share 36.2% 60.7% 3.1% -24.5%
Vote 28.2 47.2 2.4 -19.0
Recorded Share 36.2% 60.7% 3.1% -24.4%
Vote 77.7 28.2 47.2 2.4 -19.0
Error 0.0%
Final National Exit Poll (1972-2008)
TruthIsAll
[code]
Do the exit poll naysayers know any members of the "Dead Bush Voter Society"?
Apparently there are millions of them.
If so, they might want to contact Robin Williams. He knows his math and is very familiar with the Dead Poet Society.
Let's review the National Exit Poll voter turnout percentages since 1972.
It is important to keep in mind that the Final NEP is
***********ALWAYS FORCED TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE*************.
So what do these impossible turnout percentages tell us about the RECORDED VOTE?
The corporate media would have us believe that:
In 2008, 103% of living Bush 2004 voters returned to vote (60.5 of 58.9m).
But only 87% of living Kerry voters returned (48.6 of 56.1).
In 2004, 110% of living Bush 2000 voters returned to vote (52.6 of 47.9m).
But only 93% of living Gore voters returned (45.2 of 48.5).
You ain't seen nuthin' yet. Hold on to your seat.
In 1992, 119% of living Bush 1988 voters returned to vote (55.3 of 46.4m).
But only 74% of living Dukakis voters returned (29.2 of 39.7m).
In 1988, 103% of living Reagan/Bush 1984 voters returned to vote (53.1 of 51.7).
But only 85% of living Mondale voters returned (30.2 of 35.7).
But its not just Bush voters...
In 1972, 113% of living Nixon 1968 voters returned to vote (34.2 of 30.2).
But only 92% of living Humphrey voters returned (27.2 of 29.7m).
Notice a pattern?
Nah, nothing to see here; move right along.
Percentage of Living Voters from the Previous Election Required to Vote in the
Current Election in order to Match the Recorded Vote based on Final National Exit Polls
* indicates incumbent
Percentage of Previous Election Voters
Year Democrat Republican Incumbent (advantage)
2008 87 103* Bush +16
2004 93 110* Bush +17
2000 96* 93 Clinton +3
1996 86* 80 Clinton +6
1992 74 119* Bush +45
1988 85 103* Reagan/Bush +18
1984 93 98* Reagan +5
1980 94* 95 Carter -1
1976 91 96* Ford +5
1972 92 113* Nixon +21
2008
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 97%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 2008 National Exit Poll Voter %
2004 2004 2004 2008 2008 Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 17.1 13% 71% 27% 2% -
Kerry 48.3% 62.2 59.0 56.1 54.4 48.6 37% 89 9 2 87
Bush 50.7% 63.1 62.0 58.9 57.2 60.5 46% 17 82 1 103
Other 1.0% 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 5.3 4% 66 26 8 451
Margin
Total 126.5 122.3 116.2 112.7 131.5 Share 52.6% 45.6% 1.8% 7.0%
Vote 69.2 59.9 2.3 9.2
Recorded Share 52.9% 45.6% 1.5% 7.3%
Vote 131.5 69.5 60.0 2.0 9.6
Diff Error 0.2%
2004
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 98%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 2004 National Exit Poll Voter %
2000 2000 2000 2004 2004 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 20.8 17% 54% 45% 1% -
Gore 48.4% 55.3 51.0 48.5 47.5 45.2 37% 90 10 0 93
Bush 47.9% 51.8 50.5 47.9 47.0 52.6 43% 9 91 0 110
Other 3.8% 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.7 3% 71 21 8 98
Margin
Total 111.2 105.4 100.1 98.1 122.3 Share 48.5% 51.1% 0.4% -2.6%
Vote 59.3 62.5 0.5 -3.2
Recorded Share 48.3% 50.7% 1.0% -2.5%
Vote 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2 -3.0
Error 0.2%
2000
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 96%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 2000 National Exit Poll Voter %
1996 1996 1996 2000 2000 Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 19.0 18% 52% 43% 5% -
Clinton 49.2% 54.0 47.4 45.0 43.2 43.2 41% 82 15 3 96
Dole 40.7% 41.2 39.2 37.2 35.7 34.8 33% 7 91 2 93
Perot 10.1% 9.9 9.7 9.2 8.8 8.4 8% 39 49 12 92
Margin
Total 105.0 96.3 91.5 87.8 105.4 Share 48.4% 47.8% 3.8% 0.6%
Vote 51.0 50.4 4.0 0.6
Recorded Share 48.4% 47.9% 3.8% 0.5%
Vote 105.4 51.0 50.5 4.0 0.5
Error -0.1%
1996
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 88%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1996 National Exit Poll Voter %
1992 1992 1992 1996 1996 Turnout Mix Clinton Dole Perot Turnout
DNV - - - - DNV 12.5 13% 55% 33% 12% -
Clinton 43.0% 52.0 44.9 42.7 37.5 Clinton 36.6 38 85 9 6 86
Bush 37.4% 41.0 39.1 37.1 32.7 Bush 29.8 31 15 82 3 80
Perot 19.5% 20.9 20.4 19.4 17.1 Perot 17.3 18 29 42 29 89
Margin
Total 113.9 104.4 99.2 87.3 Total 96.281 Share 49.3% 40.7% 10.0% 8.6%
Vote 47.5 39.2 9.6 8.3
RecordedShare 49.2% 40.7% 10.1% 8.5%
Vote 96.3 47.4 39.2 9.7 8.2
1992
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 98%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1992 National Exit Poll Voter %
1988 1988 1988 1992 1992 Turnout Mix Clinton Bush Perot Turnout
DNV - - - - 19.1 18% 46% 25% 29% -
Dukakis 45.6% 49.8 41.8 39.7 38.9 29.2 28% 83 5 12 74
Bush 53.4% 51.5 48.9 46.4 45.5 55.3 53% 21 59 20 119
Other 1.0% 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 1% 32 30 38 85
Margin
Total 102.3 91.6 87.0 85.3 104.4 Share 43.0% 37.5% 19.5% 5.6%
Vote 44.9 39.1 20.4 5.8
Recorded Share 43.0% 37.4% 19.5% 5.6%
Vote 104.4 44.9 39.1 20.4 5.8
Error 0.0%
1988
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 94%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1988 National Exit Poll Voter %
1984 1984 1984 1988 1988 Turnout Mix Dukakis Bush Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 7.7 8% 47% 51% 2% -
Mondale 40.6% 44.5 37.6 35.7 33.6 30.2 33% 92 7 1 85
Reagan 58.8% 56.7 54.5 51.7 48.6 53.1 58% 19 80 1 103
Other 0.7% 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 1% 49 50 1 93
Margin
Total 101.9 92.7 88.0 82.7 91.6 Share 45.6% 53.3% 1.1% -7.7%
Vote 41.8 48.8 1.0 -7.0
Recorded Share 45.6% 53.4% 1.0% -7.7%
Vote 91.6 41.8 48.9 0.9 -7.1
Error -0.1%
1984
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 95%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1984 National Exit Poll Voter %
1980 1980 1980 1984 1984 Turnout Mix Mondale Reagan Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 14.8 16% 31% 68% 1% -
Carter 41.0% 40.4 35.5 33.7 32.0 31.5 34% 82 18 0 93
Reagan 50.7% 45.4 43.9 41.7 39.6 40.8 44% 11 88 1 98
Anderson 8.3% 7.3 7.2 6.8 6.5 5.6 6% 49 50 1 81
Margin
Total 93.1 86.6 82.2 78.1 92.7 Share 40.6% 58.7% 0.7% -18.1%
Vote 37.6 54.4 0.6 -16.8
Recorded Share 40.6% 58.8% 0.7% -18.2%
Vote 92.7 37.6 54.5 0.6 -16.9
Error -0.1%
1980
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 94%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1980 National Exit Poll Voter %
1976 1976 1976 1980 1980 Turnout Mix Carter Reagan Anderson Turnout
DNV - - - - 13.9 16% 39% 44% 17% -
Carter 50.1% 44.7 40.8 38.8 36.5 36.4 42% 71 22 7 94
Ford 48.0% 40.4 39.1 37.2 35.0 35.5 41% 11 83 6 95
Other 1.9% 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 0.9 1% 44 42 14 59
Margin
Total 86.7 81.5 77.5 72.8 86.6 Share 41.0% 50.7% 8.3% -9.7%
Vote 35.5 43.9 7.2 -8.4
Recorded Share 41.0% 50.7% 8.3% -9.7%
Vote 86.6 35.5 43.9 7.2 -8.4
Error 0.0%
1976
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 94%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1976 National Exit Poll Voter %
1972 1972 1972 1976 1976 Turnout Mix Carter Ford Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 11.8 15% 57% 40% 3% -
McGovern 36.2% 34.2 28.2 26.8 25.2 24.5 30% 92 7 1 91
Nixon 60.7% 49.1 47.2 44.8 42.1 43.2 53% 24 74 2 96
Other 3.1% 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 3% 58 39 3 89
Margin
Total 85.8 77.7 73.9 69.4 81.5 Share 50.0% 48.1% 1.9% 1.9%
Vote 40.8 39.2 1.5 1.6
Recorded Share 50.1% 48.0% 1.9% 2.1%
Vote 81.5 40.8 39.1 1.6 1.7
Error 0.1%
1972
Method: Final NEP Forced to Match
95% 92%
Recorded Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter 1972 National Exit Poll Voter %
1968 1968 1968 1972 1972 Turnout Mix McGovern Nixon Other Turnout
DNV - - - - 8.6 11% 43% 53% 4% -
Humphrey 42.9% 35.8 31.3 29.7 27.3 27.2 35% 71 28 1 92
Nixon 43.6% 33.1 31.8 30.2 27.8 34.2 44% 6 89 5 113
Wallace 13.6% 10.1 9.9 9.4 8.7 7.8 10% 40 59 1 83
Margin
Total 79.0 73.0 69.3 63.8 77.7 Share 36.2% 60.7% 3.1% -24.5%
Vote 28.2 47.2 2.4 -19.0
Recorded Share 36.2% 60.7% 3.1% -24.4%
Vote 77.7 28.2 47.2 2.4 -19.0
Error 0.0%