TruthIsAll
01-18-2009, 03:51 PM
2000-2008 Election Fraud and the Media: Omitting Facts and Promoting Myths
TruthIsAll
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/MediaElectionFraud.htm
Jan. 19, 2009
The mainstream media has been avoiding the issue of election fraud since the 2000 selection. Instead, it has promoted these myths: Bush won Florida and defeated Gore in 2000; the GOP captured the Senate in 2002; Bush defeated Kerry by 3 million votes in 2004; the Democrats won 30 GOP House seats in 2006; Obama won by 9.5 million votes in 2008. None are true. The media does not want the public to know the truth about GOP 2000-2008 election fraud. It’s understandable since the media commissioned most of the pre-election polls and the National Exit Poll. Therefore it never investigates statistical anomalies in the polls or other facts that point to massive election fraud.
The 2000 election was just the beginning. Congress supposedly passed HAVA to make the vote-counts more accurate: no more hanging chads and spoiled ballots. But instead, HAVA opened the floodgates of fraud. Georgia 2002 was a successful test case. The vote-switching code was perfected by 2004. Kerry’s 10m winning margin morphed into a 3m loss – a 13m swing. In 2006, the Democratic 40-50 House seat gain was reduced to 30. The landslide was denied. In 2008, Obama’s vote share was cut 3-5% to 52.9%. His margin was reduced by the same amount as Kerry’s in 2004. The landslide was much bigger than the public thinks it was.
The 2000 Stolen Election should have been a warning, but the media failed to investigate and reveal the full extent of the fraud in Florida. Even today, in the glow of Obama’s historic triumph, there’s no mention of the recurring statistical anomalies in the pre-election polls and the National Exit Poll. The latest myth is that since Obama won, there could not have been fraud. But the MSM made sure to discuss non-existent voter fraud and Acorn.
2008
Obama won the official popular vote by 69.5-59.9m, a 9.5m vote margin. According to the National Exit Poll, Democrats won new voters by 14% (1992-2004). Obama won by new voters by 43% in 2008. Pre-election registered voter (RV) polls sample new voters; likely voter (LV polls) don't. The final 2 RV polls had Obama leading by 53.5-41 (56.8-41.7 after UVA). The average LV Nov. poll had Obama leading by 50-43 (53.5-45.0 after UVA).
The LV polls understated Obama’s vote since they did not sample newly registered voters. The RCP site lists 2004/2008 LV polls but not Final RV polls. The polls do not allocate (UVA) undecided voters. According to pollsters Zogby, Gallup and Harris, 70-90% broke for the challengers: Obama and Kerry.
In order to match the 52.9-45.6% recorded vote share, the Final NEP had to inflate the number of returning Bush 2000 voters and indicated a 46/37% Bush/Kerry returning voter split. But that means there were 12m more returning Bush than Kerry voters – and Bush won the official vote (not the True vote) by just 3 million. Did you read about this in the NY Times or see it on MSNBC or CNN or other Political Web sites?
According to the Final NEP, 5.2m (4%) of the 2008 electorate were returning 2004 third- party voters. But there were only 1.2m third-party voters. It’s 2006 all over again – the number of third-party voters was inflated from 1% to 4%. Why did the NEP do it? We know they had to match the recorded vote – but why do it in such a ridiculous, incriminating way?
Well, they got away with inflating third-party vote in the 2006 midterms and no one questioned it then. But why take a chance that it would be noticed this time? The reason was not just because they knew it would not be questioned. They had to provide cover for the pre-election likely voter (LV) polls, so they lowered the Final NEP new voter percentage mix from 16% to 13%. Otherwise, it would indicate that there were 21m new voters, not 17m. More new voters meant a bigger Obama margin. The LV polls indicated Obama was leading by 7% before undecided voters were allocated (9% after UVA); the RV polls indicated a 13% spread (16% after UVA).
Now the MSM wants us to believe that Obama has 53% (which matches the LV polls). The MSM doesn’t mention that the RV polls that had him leading by double the LV margins. Take a look at the RealClearPolitics.com (RCP). The last RV poll listed was from Ipsos on 10/13. RCP does not list the final Nov. 2 RV tracking polls from Gallip and ABC/WP which show an Obama 13% margin – before UVA. The combination of pre-election LV polls (with UVA) and 71% of new voters (from the NEP) gives the RV 57% poll result. Did you read about this in the NY Times or see it on MSNBC or CNN or other Political Web sites?
Why did RCP fail to list these 5 RV polls?
Poll Date Obama McCain Spread
Gallup 11/02 53 40 +13
ABC/WP 11/02 54 41 +13
Pew 11/01 50 39 +11
Pew 10/26 52 36 +16
NBC 10/20 52 42 +10
Total Average 52.2 39.6 +12.6
This is why the media does not discuss RV polls and lists only LV polls:
1) The National Exit Poll must match the official recorded vote (and the LV polls) so the pollsters
2) had to reduce the percentage of new voters in the 2008 NEP because they
3) could not increase the number of returning Bush voters by 3% (it was already an impossible 46%) therefore
4) they had to raise the number of returning other third-party voters by 3%.
2008 Primaries
Clinton was expected to win the Iowa caucuses, but lost to Obama and Edwards. In NH, Obama was favored in all pre-election polls by 6-10%. He was leading in the preliminary exit polls according to MSNBC. If Hillary lost NH, she would be out of the running. But Hillary miraculously won the primary. She won machine-count districts by the same percentage that Obama did in hand-counted paper ballot districts. Approximately 80% of NH votes were machine-counted. Just before the Ohio and Texas primaries, Rush Limbaugh promoted Operation Chaos. The goal: to get Republicans to cross over and vote for Hillary and deny Obama the nomination. It almost worked. She barely won Indiana and Texas but lost the Texas caucuses. And she did better in all the state primaries than the exit polls indicated she would do. She lost all caucus states the votes were head-counted – not machine counted. Did you read about this in the NY Times or see it on MSNBC or CNN or other Political Web sites?
2006 midterms
It was a Democratic Tsunami. They swept congress, regained the Senate and winning 30 new House seats. But the landslide was denied. Once again, the Final 2006 National Exit Poll provided the “tell”. The 7pm NEP indicated that the Democrats won the Generic vote by 55-43% with a 47/45% Bush/Kerry returning voter mix. But in the Final NEP, the mix was changed to 49/43%. The Bush weights were once again implausible, if not impossible. Even if one believes the fiction that Bush won by 3% in 2004, why would returning Bush voters outnumber returning Kerry voters by 6%? And how could 4% of the electorate (3m) be returning third-party voters when just 1.2m voted in 2004? Did you read about this in the NY Times or see it on MSNBC or CNN or other Political Web sites?
2004
Bush had a 48% approval rating on Election Day. His monthly approval was highly correlated with the national pre-election polls. The pre-election polls indicated a tight race: the 18 final national RV/LV polls had Kerry winning by 47.5-47% (51-48 after UVA). Kerry led the National Exit Poll (NEP) all night by a steady 51-48%. His share of new voters was 61% at 4pm, 59% at 730pm, 57% at 12:22am and 54% in the Final. He was also leading in the Florida and Ohio exit polls. The unadjusted state exit polls released in Jan. 2005 had Kerry winning by 52-47%.
The NEP was forced to match the incoming votes – and the 51-48 lead was reversed after midnight. The Final 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix was mathematically impossible since it implied that there were 52.6m returning Bush 2000 voters, but he only had 50.5m official votes. Approximately 5% (2.5m died), so at most there could have been only 48m returning Bush voters – a full 4.5m fewer than the Final NEP indicated. The 4.5 million assumes an impossible 100% turnout of living 2000 Bush voters.
Realistically, since approximately 95% voted in 2004, about 46m voted - 6.5 million fewer than the Final NEP indicated. A True Vote analysis based on a realistic returning 2000 voter mix and preliminary exit polls indicates that Kerry won by 67-57m. So there was a 13m reversal from the 51-48m official count. The 2004 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate had Kerry leading by 52-47%. Did you read about this in the NY Times or see it on MSNBC or CNN or other Political Web sites?
2002 Midterms
The Democrats led significantly in final pre-election polling of senate races in Minnesota, Texas, Georgia and New Hampshire. All magically turned to the GOP. Georgia was the most egregious case. The incumbent senator, Viet Nam veteran and triple amputee Max Cleland, led by a significant margin in the final polls. His opponent Saxby Chambliss ran a vicious smear campaign. Now here’s the rest of the story. Georgia was the first state to install Diebold touch screens in all the precincts. At the time no one gave it much thought. Of course, by now most are familiar with the fact that touch screen votes cannot be verified and drop or switch votes – over 90% of the time to the Republican. It’s the perfect scam.
2000
Gore defeated Bush by 540,000 official recorded votes. But the media never mentioned the U.S. Census Vote Survey that determined 110.8 million votes were cast and only 105.4m recorded. There were 5.4m uncounted votes, over 50% in minority precincts. Therefore, Gore won the popular vote by approximately 3 million. Gore lost Florida by an official 537 votes when the Supreme Court stopped the recount. Even today, the media avoids discussing the fact that 175,000 Florida ballots were uncounted. They focused all attention on the 65,000 under-punched ballots - but not the other 110,000 that were over-punched. The Miami Herald did an investigation and determined that approximately 65% of the spoiled ballots were for Gore and that he won Florida by over 46,000 votes - but the mainstream media never picked it up. Did you read about this in the NY Times or see it on MSNBC or CNN or other Political Web sites?
TruthIsAll
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/MediaElectionFraud.htm
Jan. 19, 2009
The mainstream media has been avoiding the issue of election fraud since the 2000 selection. Instead, it has promoted these myths: Bush won Florida and defeated Gore in 2000; the GOP captured the Senate in 2002; Bush defeated Kerry by 3 million votes in 2004; the Democrats won 30 GOP House seats in 2006; Obama won by 9.5 million votes in 2008. None are true. The media does not want the public to know the truth about GOP 2000-2008 election fraud. It’s understandable since the media commissioned most of the pre-election polls and the National Exit Poll. Therefore it never investigates statistical anomalies in the polls or other facts that point to massive election fraud.
The 2000 election was just the beginning. Congress supposedly passed HAVA to make the vote-counts more accurate: no more hanging chads and spoiled ballots. But instead, HAVA opened the floodgates of fraud. Georgia 2002 was a successful test case. The vote-switching code was perfected by 2004. Kerry’s 10m winning margin morphed into a 3m loss – a 13m swing. In 2006, the Democratic 40-50 House seat gain was reduced to 30. The landslide was denied. In 2008, Obama’s vote share was cut 3-5% to 52.9%. His margin was reduced by the same amount as Kerry’s in 2004. The landslide was much bigger than the public thinks it was.
The 2000 Stolen Election should have been a warning, but the media failed to investigate and reveal the full extent of the fraud in Florida. Even today, in the glow of Obama’s historic triumph, there’s no mention of the recurring statistical anomalies in the pre-election polls and the National Exit Poll. The latest myth is that since Obama won, there could not have been fraud. But the MSM made sure to discuss non-existent voter fraud and Acorn.
2008
Obama won the official popular vote by 69.5-59.9m, a 9.5m vote margin. According to the National Exit Poll, Democrats won new voters by 14% (1992-2004). Obama won by new voters by 43% in 2008. Pre-election registered voter (RV) polls sample new voters; likely voter (LV polls) don't. The final 2 RV polls had Obama leading by 53.5-41 (56.8-41.7 after UVA). The average LV Nov. poll had Obama leading by 50-43 (53.5-45.0 after UVA).
The LV polls understated Obama’s vote since they did not sample newly registered voters. The RCP site lists 2004/2008 LV polls but not Final RV polls. The polls do not allocate (UVA) undecided voters. According to pollsters Zogby, Gallup and Harris, 70-90% broke for the challengers: Obama and Kerry.
In order to match the 52.9-45.6% recorded vote share, the Final NEP had to inflate the number of returning Bush 2000 voters and indicated a 46/37% Bush/Kerry returning voter split. But that means there were 12m more returning Bush than Kerry voters – and Bush won the official vote (not the True vote) by just 3 million. Did you read about this in the NY Times or see it on MSNBC or CNN or other Political Web sites?
According to the Final NEP, 5.2m (4%) of the 2008 electorate were returning 2004 third- party voters. But there were only 1.2m third-party voters. It’s 2006 all over again – the number of third-party voters was inflated from 1% to 4%. Why did the NEP do it? We know they had to match the recorded vote – but why do it in such a ridiculous, incriminating way?
Well, they got away with inflating third-party vote in the 2006 midterms and no one questioned it then. But why take a chance that it would be noticed this time? The reason was not just because they knew it would not be questioned. They had to provide cover for the pre-election likely voter (LV) polls, so they lowered the Final NEP new voter percentage mix from 16% to 13%. Otherwise, it would indicate that there were 21m new voters, not 17m. More new voters meant a bigger Obama margin. The LV polls indicated Obama was leading by 7% before undecided voters were allocated (9% after UVA); the RV polls indicated a 13% spread (16% after UVA).
Now the MSM wants us to believe that Obama has 53% (which matches the LV polls). The MSM doesn’t mention that the RV polls that had him leading by double the LV margins. Take a look at the RealClearPolitics.com (RCP). The last RV poll listed was from Ipsos on 10/13. RCP does not list the final Nov. 2 RV tracking polls from Gallip and ABC/WP which show an Obama 13% margin – before UVA. The combination of pre-election LV polls (with UVA) and 71% of new voters (from the NEP) gives the RV 57% poll result. Did you read about this in the NY Times or see it on MSNBC or CNN or other Political Web sites?
Why did RCP fail to list these 5 RV polls?
Poll Date Obama McCain Spread
Gallup 11/02 53 40 +13
ABC/WP 11/02 54 41 +13
Pew 11/01 50 39 +11
Pew 10/26 52 36 +16
NBC 10/20 52 42 +10
Total Average 52.2 39.6 +12.6
This is why the media does not discuss RV polls and lists only LV polls:
1) The National Exit Poll must match the official recorded vote (and the LV polls) so the pollsters
2) had to reduce the percentage of new voters in the 2008 NEP because they
3) could not increase the number of returning Bush voters by 3% (it was already an impossible 46%) therefore
4) they had to raise the number of returning other third-party voters by 3%.
2008 Primaries
Clinton was expected to win the Iowa caucuses, but lost to Obama and Edwards. In NH, Obama was favored in all pre-election polls by 6-10%. He was leading in the preliminary exit polls according to MSNBC. If Hillary lost NH, she would be out of the running. But Hillary miraculously won the primary. She won machine-count districts by the same percentage that Obama did in hand-counted paper ballot districts. Approximately 80% of NH votes were machine-counted. Just before the Ohio and Texas primaries, Rush Limbaugh promoted Operation Chaos. The goal: to get Republicans to cross over and vote for Hillary and deny Obama the nomination. It almost worked. She barely won Indiana and Texas but lost the Texas caucuses. And she did better in all the state primaries than the exit polls indicated she would do. She lost all caucus states the votes were head-counted – not machine counted. Did you read about this in the NY Times or see it on MSNBC or CNN or other Political Web sites?
2006 midterms
It was a Democratic Tsunami. They swept congress, regained the Senate and winning 30 new House seats. But the landslide was denied. Once again, the Final 2006 National Exit Poll provided the “tell”. The 7pm NEP indicated that the Democrats won the Generic vote by 55-43% with a 47/45% Bush/Kerry returning voter mix. But in the Final NEP, the mix was changed to 49/43%. The Bush weights were once again implausible, if not impossible. Even if one believes the fiction that Bush won by 3% in 2004, why would returning Bush voters outnumber returning Kerry voters by 6%? And how could 4% of the electorate (3m) be returning third-party voters when just 1.2m voted in 2004? Did you read about this in the NY Times or see it on MSNBC or CNN or other Political Web sites?
2004
Bush had a 48% approval rating on Election Day. His monthly approval was highly correlated with the national pre-election polls. The pre-election polls indicated a tight race: the 18 final national RV/LV polls had Kerry winning by 47.5-47% (51-48 after UVA). Kerry led the National Exit Poll (NEP) all night by a steady 51-48%. His share of new voters was 61% at 4pm, 59% at 730pm, 57% at 12:22am and 54% in the Final. He was also leading in the Florida and Ohio exit polls. The unadjusted state exit polls released in Jan. 2005 had Kerry winning by 52-47%.
The NEP was forced to match the incoming votes – and the 51-48 lead was reversed after midnight. The Final 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix was mathematically impossible since it implied that there were 52.6m returning Bush 2000 voters, but he only had 50.5m official votes. Approximately 5% (2.5m died), so at most there could have been only 48m returning Bush voters – a full 4.5m fewer than the Final NEP indicated. The 4.5 million assumes an impossible 100% turnout of living 2000 Bush voters.
Realistically, since approximately 95% voted in 2004, about 46m voted - 6.5 million fewer than the Final NEP indicated. A True Vote analysis based on a realistic returning 2000 voter mix and preliminary exit polls indicates that Kerry won by 67-57m. So there was a 13m reversal from the 51-48m official count. The 2004 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate had Kerry leading by 52-47%. Did you read about this in the NY Times or see it on MSNBC or CNN or other Political Web sites?
2002 Midterms
The Democrats led significantly in final pre-election polling of senate races in Minnesota, Texas, Georgia and New Hampshire. All magically turned to the GOP. Georgia was the most egregious case. The incumbent senator, Viet Nam veteran and triple amputee Max Cleland, led by a significant margin in the final polls. His opponent Saxby Chambliss ran a vicious smear campaign. Now here’s the rest of the story. Georgia was the first state to install Diebold touch screens in all the precincts. At the time no one gave it much thought. Of course, by now most are familiar with the fact that touch screen votes cannot be verified and drop or switch votes – over 90% of the time to the Republican. It’s the perfect scam.
2000
Gore defeated Bush by 540,000 official recorded votes. But the media never mentioned the U.S. Census Vote Survey that determined 110.8 million votes were cast and only 105.4m recorded. There were 5.4m uncounted votes, over 50% in minority precincts. Therefore, Gore won the popular vote by approximately 3 million. Gore lost Florida by an official 537 votes when the Supreme Court stopped the recount. Even today, the media avoids discussing the fact that 175,000 Florida ballots were uncounted. They focused all attention on the 65,000 under-punched ballots - but not the other 110,000 that were over-punched. The Miami Herald did an investigation and determined that approximately 65% of the spoiled ballots were for Gore and that he won Florida by over 46,000 votes - but the mainstream media never picked it up. Did you read about this in the NY Times or see it on MSNBC or CNN or other Political Web sites?