2008 Election Fraud Analytics

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionAnalysisLinks.htm

TruthIsAll

Jan. 13, 2009


Popular and Electoral Vote Projections

The Election Calculator

The preliminary May 2008 model projection indicated that Obama would win by 12 million votes: 71-59m (54.1-44.7%). The number of returning 2004 voters and vote shares was determined by adjusted the 2004 recorded vote for a 4.8% voter mortality rate and 3.45 million uncounted votes. An estimated 95% of these voters turned out in 2008. The projected Obama and McCain vote shares of returning and new voters were close to the preliminary, unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll estimates for Kerry and Bush, respectively.

The Election Model

The Monte Carlo simulation projected Obama would win 365.3 expected electoral votes and a 53.1-44.9% share. He won by 365-173 EV with a 69.5-59.9m popular vote margin (52.87-45.62%). The base case assumption was that he would win 60% of late undecided voters. A 75% undecided voter allocation produced a 53.8% share and 379.5 expected EV. Pollsters typically allocate 70-90% of the late undecided vote to the challenger depending on the incumbent’s performance. McCain was the de facto incumbent; Bush approval was 22%.

The Election Model projected 365.3 expected electoral votes - but not the True Vote

The model exactly matched the electoral vote and was within 0.2% of the popular vote share. But a post- election sensitivity analysis using Final 2008 NEP vote shares with a plausible returning voter mix indicated that Obama’s True vote share was 2-4% higher than the recorded share.


Post-election Analysis

A Conversation about the 2008 election

A one on one discussion highlights the statistical anomalies. The Final 2008 National Exit Poll, like the 2004 NEP, provides the primary “tell”. It’s standard procedure for the Final NEP to “adjust” demographic weights and vote shares and force a match to the recorded vote. But an impossible mix of returning voters was necessary in order to force the match – just as it was in 2004.

Is the Media cherry-picking LV polls and ignoring the RV polls?

According to the National Exit Poll (NEP), new voters comprised13% of the 2008 electorate and Obama won them by 71-27%. From 1992-2004, the Democrat won new voters by an average 14% margin. Registered voter (RV) polls include new voters – mostly young Democrats. Likely voter (LV) polls do not include new voters. Obama led the RV polls with a projected 56.8-41.7% share – a 15.1% margin. Using the LV polls, he led by 53.5-45.0% - an 8.5% margin. And that’s why RV polls are superior to LV polls: they include an important share of the electorate – the new voter.

The Final RV and LV Polls Both Confirm an Obama 20m Landslide

This analysis shows that the final pre-election likely voter (LV) and registered voter (RV) polls were both correct even though there was a 3% difference in their projected shares. The LV polls were correct in predicting the likely (returning) voter shares. But since the LV polls only sampled a subset of all voters by excluding new voters, they understated Obama’s vote share. According to the Final National Exit Poll, Obama won 71% of approximately 20m new voters. The RV polls sampled the total vote share of returning and newly registered voters. After allocating undecided voters, the average RV poll indicated a 56.5% share and 20 a million landslide for Obama. The RV projected share was confirmed by the Election Calculator model, which used the National Exit Poll vote shares and an adjusted, feasible returning voter mix.

Landslide Denied

The tremendous Obama GOTV and new voter registration effort did not produce the expected numbers of votes. The nine million net increase in the 2008 recorded vote was dwarfed by the 17 million in 2004. An analysis of uncounted votes and exit poll discrepancies in the 1988-2004 presidential elections revealed some very interesting information. In the 4 elections from 1988 to 2000, the average unadjusted state exit poll aggregate was within 1% of the recorded vote - after the uncounted votes were included. But 2004 was different in kind and scope: including the uncounted votes did not make up the difference. HAVA (Help America Vote Act) was passed during the first Bush term.

2008 National Exit Poll Does Not Compute

The National Exit Poll “Voted in 2004” returning voter mix (46 Bush / 37 Kerry / 4 Other) implies that Bush voters comprised 46% (60.3m) of the 131.37 recorded 2008 vote. If the election was fraud-free, Bush had 62.0 million recorded votes. Approximately 3.0m died, so at most only 59.0m could have voted in 2008. Assuming that 95% turned out, about 56m voted. Where did the 4.3m Bush voters come from? If the 2004 exit poll reflected the True vote (Kerry by 52-47%), then Bush only had 57m votes and about 51m returned to vote – a 9m discrepancy. The NEP also implies that 5.2m (4%) were returning third-party voters, but there were only 1.2m third-party votes in 2004. Where did the extra 4m third-party voters come from? One can only conclude that since an impossible Final 2008 NEP was forced to match the recorded vote, the recorded vote was also impossible.

Statistical Anomalies

The 2008 Election Calculator model determines the True vote based on the number of returning 2004 voters and Final 2008 National Exit Poll vote shares. It indicates that Obama’s True Vote was more than double his recorded 9.5m vote margin. Anomalies abound in the state and national pre-election polls, exit polls and late vote shares. The number of uncounted votes is still unknown.

Matching to the 2008 Recorded Vote

The 2008 National Exit Poll Bush/Kerry (46/37) returning voter mix, like the 2004 Bush/Gore (43/37) mix, was mathematically impossible. In order to match the recorded vote, both required more returning Bush voters than were still living. The 2008 return voter mix anomaly is further confirmation that Kerry won. An impossible high returning Bush voter turnout and low Kerry turnout were required to match the 2008 recorded vote. Like Gore and Kerry, Obama’s True vote far exceeded his recorded vote.

In order to force a match to the recorded 2008 vote, the 2008 NEP implied that Bush won in 2004 by 53-43%. He won the official vote by 50.7-48.3% (62-59m). Because the NEP returning voter mix was mathematically impossible, the 2008 Election Calculator revised the mix assuming two scenarios: the recorded vote and the unadjusted exit poll. It determined that the vote shares required to match the 2008 recorded vote were implausible in both scenarios. Furthermore, the returning 2004 voter mix required to match the vote was impossible.

Using Excel Solver to Calculate the Required Vote Mix

The National Exit Poll asked respondents whom they voted for in 2004 as well as in 2008. Respondent vote shares, in combination with a feasible returning voter mix, did not match the official count. But the Final NEP must always match the official vote count- come hell or high water. How do the pollsters adjust (force) the mix and/or the vote shares to achieve the match? The Excel Solver program used a “goal-seeking” search algorithm to automatically adjust the returning voter mix and vote shares to match the official count. But the mix was impossible: it required more returning Bush voters than actually were recorded for him.

Obama Landslide in 3D

Obama’s vote was a function of his share of returning Kerry, Bush and new voters. The Final NEP vote shares were 89%, 17% and 71%, respectively. Due to the margin of error, it is instructive to view the effects of incremental changes in these shares on the total vote. The Election Calculator sensitivity analysis showed that Obama did much better than the recorded margin indicates and may have won by as many as 23m votes. In order to derive a plausible returning voter mix, two scenarios were analyzed: a) the recorded 2004 vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%) and b) the unadjusted 2004 exit poll (Kerry 52-47%). The mix was calculated for both scenarios using identical voter mortality, uncounted votes and turnout rates. Obama won the recorded vote (unlikely) scenario by 17.6 million: 75.4-57.8m (55.7-42.7%). He won the exit poll (most-likely) scenario by 22.6m: 77.9-55.3m (57.5-40.8%).

Election Calculator Sensitivity Analysis

All models consist of recorded data, assumptions (parameters) and calculations. Given that the Election Calculator (EC) model computations are correct, the only uncertainties are the input base case assumptions. These are estimated from voter mortality tables, historical returning voter turnout percentages, Census votes cast, and 2008 National Exit Poll vote shares. Due to the margin of error inherent in these estimates, the model examines the effects of changes in the base case assumptions via a comprehensive set of sensitivity analysis tables. Each table consists of 25 combinations (scenarios) of two input variables. The purpose is to gauge the impact of each combination on Obama’s vote share and margin. A very close approximation to the True Vote is somewhere in the table; the most likely, base case estimate is the central cell. The range of plausible vote shares can be narrowed from 25 to 9 by focusing on the combinations that lie within the margin of error.

The 10 million Late Vote Anomaly

How does one explain the discrepancy in the Democratic vote share between the initial votes recorded on Election Day and the millions of votes recorded later? On Election Day, 121.21m votes were recorded and Obama led by 63.4-56.1m (52.3-46.3%). As of Jan. 5, 131.37m votes have been recorded. Obama leads by 69.5-59.9m (52.87-45.62%). He has a 59.2-37.5% share of the 10.16m votes recorded since Election Day, a 7% increase in vote share and 15% increase in margin. Gore and Kerry also had late vote margins that far exceeded their Election Day margins. In the last 3 elections, the average Democratic late vote share was 7% higher than the initial share.


Forecasting Methodology

Projecting the Electoral Vote and Win Probability

Most election forecasters, media pundits and academics fail to apply basic probability, statistics and simulation methodology in forecasting the electoral vote and corresponding win probability. A meta-analysis or simulation is not required to calculate the expected electoral vote. Regardless of the particular method used to forecast the winner of each state, the corresponding state win probabilities are necessary in order to calculate the expected EV and win probability.

Election Model: Monte Carlo Simulation

The expected state EV is the win probability times the electoral vote. If the probability is 50% and the state has 20 EV, then each candidate gets 10 electoral votes. The Total Expected EV is the sum of the products for all the states. The math is exceedingly simple. The tough part is accurately projecting state vote shares. The Election Model uses the latest state poll average and allocates undecided voters to derive the projected 2-party vote. The state win probabilities are used in a 5000 election-trial Monte Carlo simulation. The probability that a candidate will win the EV is the number of winning election trials/5000.

Election Forecasting Models

Includes the following:
. Time-series regression models vs. Monte Carlo polling simulation
. Final 2004 state and national projections confirmed by the exit polls
. Analysis of 2004 registered voter (RV) and likely voter (LV) polls
. Basic Polling Mathematics
. Overview of Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation

2008 Primaries: Footprints of Election Fraud

Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide

2004-2006 Election Fraud Analytics

2004 Election Model

[div style="width: 890px;font-family: Times New Roman,Arial;font-size: 16.0px;line-height: 1.25;"]
[div style="font-size: 22px;font-style: italic;font-weight:bold;"]The National Exit Poll must match the official vote count — come hell or high water[/quote]
[link:www.truthisall.net/|TruthIsAll]source: [link:www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008NEPSolver.htm|http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008NEPSolver.htm]

Jan. 3, 2008

Assume you had the full set of the Preliminary National Exit Poll results that showed Obama winning with a 57.8% vote share.As you suspected, more Kerry voters returned than did Bush voters.The poll results differ sharply from the official vote count that has Obama winning 52.34%.But the National Exit Poll Final results must match the official vote count — come hell or high water.It’s standard operating procedure: [link:www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Presidential-Election-2004.pdf#page=2|pollsters alter exit poll data to be the same as the election results].How would you go about it?


Preliminary Unadjusted 2008 National Exit Poll(assumed values)
There are two possibilities: you can adjust the Mix of returning '04-voters and/or the individual candidate Vote Shares (4195 Respondents, 1.5% MoE).

[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]Votedin 2004[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 3.0em;padding-right: 4px"]2008Mix[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px;color:maroon;font-weight:bold"]VoterCount[/quote] [div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.75em;padding-right: 4px"]Obama[br]Share[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][br][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 3.25em"]McCain[br]Share[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 1.75em"][br][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 3.25em"]Other[br]Share[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]Obama[br]Votes[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]McCain[br]Votes[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]Other[br]Votes[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em;padding-top: 4px"]DNV (New in '08)[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.0em;border: 1px solid;border-bottom: 0px;padding-right: 4px"]15.8%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px"]19.2[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid;border-top: 1px solid"]72.0%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em;border-top: 1px solid;border-bottom: 0px"]26.0%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;border-top: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid;padding-right: 4px"]2%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]13.79[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]4.98[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]0.38[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em"]Kerry[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.0em;border-left: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid;;border-right: 1px solid"]42.9%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px"]52.0[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid"]89.8%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em"]8.2%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 1px solid"]2%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]46.66[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]4.29[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]1.04[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em"]Bush[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.0em;border-left: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid;;border-right: 1px solid"]40.4%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px"]49.0[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid"]18.2%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em"]80.8%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 1px solid"]1%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]8.93[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]39.61[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]0.49[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em"]Other[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.0em;border: 1px solid;border-top: 0px;padding-right: 4px;border: 1px solid;;border-top: 0px"]0.85%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 0px solid "]1.0[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid;border-bottom: 1px solid"]66.0%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]24.0%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-bottom: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid"]10%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]0.68[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]0.25[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]0.10[/quote]

[b][div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 11.0em;;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid white;border-right: 0px"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 0px"][b]121.21[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.75em;border: 0px solid black;border-right: 0px"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em;border-top: 0px solid black;border-bottom: 0px solid black"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.25em;;font-weight:normal;border-top: 0px solid black;border-bottom: 0px solid black"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 0px solid black;border-left: 0px;padding-right: 4px"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.75em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon"]70.06[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon"]49.12[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon"]2.02[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 7.75em;"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.0em;;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid white;border-right: 0px solid "]100%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 24.75em;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 0px solid "][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 1px solid;border-right: 1px"]57.80%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em;border-top: 1px solid;border-bottom: 1px solid"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.25em;;font-weight:normal;border-top: 1px solid;border-bottom: 1px solid"]40.53%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 1px solid;border-left: 0px;padding-right: 4px"]1.66%[/quote]


You load the Excel Solver add-in program. It will determine the returning voter mix that will force the cross tab to match the recorded vote share — or at least get very close to it. It will find the required mix using a sophisticated goal-seeking algorithm. It’s just trial and error on steroids.

Solver needs the ranges for the return voter percentage mix and the corresponding vote shares to adjust, until it matches the target ([b style="color:maroon"]recorded) Obama vote share. It also needs to know the numerical constraints; the mix and share percentages must all be greater than zero and sum to 100%.

Now that Solver knows the target vote share and the range of percentages to adjust subject to the constraints, it can begin the search for the required mix and vote shares. Within seconds, it indicates that it has found the values needed to match the recorded 52.34% share.

2008 National Exit Poll('forcing' a match to the [link:uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/compare.php?type=national&year=2008&f=1&off=0&elect=0|Recorded Vote])

1. Target the Obama vote share at 52.34%

[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]Votedin 2004[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 3.75em;padding-right: 4px"]2008Mix[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px;color:maroon;font-weight:bold"]Voter[br]Count[/quote] [div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.75em;padding-right: 4px"]Obama[br]Share[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][br][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 3.25em"]McCain[br]Share[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 1.75em"][br][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 3.25em"]Other[br]Share[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]Obama[br]Votes[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]McCain[br]Votes[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]Other[br]Votes[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em;padding-top: 4px"]DNV (New in '08)[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border: 1px solid;border-bottom: 0px;padding-right: 4px"]15.8%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px"]19.2[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid;border-top: 1px solid"][b style="color:white;background:blue"]71.0%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em;border-top: 1px solid;border-bottom: 0px"]27.00%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;border-top: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid;padding-right: 4px"]2%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]13.61[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]5.17[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em" ]0.38[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em"]Kerry[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border-left: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid;;border-right: 1px solid"]38.5%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px"]46.6[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid"]87.1%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em"]10.90%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 1px solid"]2%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]40.62[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]5.08[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em" ]0.93[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em"]Bush[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border-left: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid;;border-right: 1px solid"]44.9%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px"]54.4[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid"]15.7%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em"]83.30%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 1px solid"]1%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]8.54 [/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]45.30[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]0.54[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em"]Other[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border: 1px solid;border-top: 0px;padding-right: 4px;border: 1px solid;;border-top: 0px"]0.85%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 0px solid "]1.0[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid;border-bottom: 1px solid"]66.0%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]24.00%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-bottom: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid"]10%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:5.5em"]0.68 [/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]0.25[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em" ]0.10[/quote]

[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 11.75em;;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid white;border-right: 0px"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 0px solid "][b]121.21[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 0px solid black;border-right: 0px"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em;border-top: 0px solid black;border-bottom: 0px sol46.03%id black"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.25em;;font-weight:normal;border-top: 0px solid black;border-bottom: 0px solid black"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 0px solid black;border-left: 0px;padding-right: 4px"][/quote][div align="rig 55.79ht" style="float:left;width: 0.75em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon"]63.44[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon"]55.79[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon"]1.96[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 8.0em;"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.75em;;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid white;border-right: 0px solid "]100%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 24.75em;color: maroon;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 0px solid "][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 1px solid;border-right: 1px"]52.34%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em;border-top: 1px solid;border-bottom: 1px solid"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.25em;;font-weight:normal;border-top: 1px solid;border-bottom: 1px solid"]46.03%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 1px solid;border-left: 0px;padding-right: 4px"]1.62%[/quote]

Solver has determined that to match the recorded vote, the returning voter mix from the initial Preliminary exit poll must be radically adjusted: an increase of 5.4 million more returning-Bush voters and corresponding decrease in Kerry voters. Solver also reduced the Obama share of new voters (1%), returning Kerry voters (2.8%) and returning Bush voters (2.5%).

But since the exit poll margin of error is 1.5%, the Obama shares of Kerry and Bush voters must be re-adjusted to fall within the MoE based on the original poll results.


2. Adjust the Obama share of Kerry voters to 89% and Bush voters to 17%

[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]Votedin 2004[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 3.75em;padding-right: 4px"]2008Mix[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px;color:maroon;font-weight:bold"]Voter[br]Count[/quote] [div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.75em;padding-right: 4px"]Obama[br]Share[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][br][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 3.25em"]McCain[br]Share[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 1.75em"][br][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 3.25em"]Other[br]Share[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]Obama[br]Votes[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]McCain[br]Votes[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]Other[br]Votes[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em;padding-top: 4px"]DNV (New in '08)[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border: 1px solid;border-bottom: 0px;padding-right: 4px"]15.8%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px"]19.2[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid;border-top: 1px solid"]71%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em;border-top: 1px solid;border-bottom: 0px"]27%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;border-top: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid;padding-right: 4px"]2%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]13.61[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]5.17[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em" ]0.38[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em"]Kerry[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border-left: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid;;border-right: 1px solid"][b style="color:white;background:maroon"]36.7%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px"]44.4[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid"]89%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em"]9% [/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 1px solid"]2%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]39.54[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]4.00[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em" ]0.89[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em"]Bush[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border-left: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid;;border-right: 1px solid"]46.7%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px"]56.6[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid"]17%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em"]82%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 1px solid"]1%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]9.62[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]46.40[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]0.57[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em"]Other[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border: 1px solid;border-top: 0px;padding-right: 4px;border: 1px solid;;border-top: 0px"]0.85%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 0px solid "]1.0[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid;border-bottom: 1px solid"]66%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]24%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-bottom: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid"]10%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:5.5em"]0.68[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]0.25[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em" ]0.10[/quote]

[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 11.75em;;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid white;border-right: 0px"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 0px solid "][b]121.21[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 0px solid black;border-right: 0px"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em;border-top: 0px solid black;border-bottom: 0px sol46.03%id black"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.25em;;font-weight:normal;border-top: 0px solid black;border-bottom: 0px solid black"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 0px solid black;border-left: 0px;padding-right: 4px"][/quote][div align="rig 55.79ht" style="float:left;width: 0.75em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon"]63.44[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon"]55.82[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon"]1.94[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 8.0em;"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.75em;;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid white;border-right: 0px solid "]100%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 24.75em;color: maroon;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 0px solid "][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 1px solid;border-right: 1px"]52.34%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em;border-top: 1px solid;border-bottom: 1px solid"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.25em;;font-weight:normal;border-top: 1px solid;border-bottom: 1px solid"]46.05%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 1px solid;border-left: 0px;padding-right: 4px"]1.60%[/quote]

But the required spread in the mix between returning Kerry and Bush voters has widened from 6.4% to 10.0% (7.8m to 12.2m votes).
Decrease the percentage of new voters to 13.0%. Increase the percentage of returning third-party voters to 4.0%. Adjust the returning-Bush count accordingly.


3. Decrease the new vote mix to 13% and increase the mix of returning third-party voters to 4%

[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]Votedin 2004[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 3.75em;padding-right: 4px"]2008Mix[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px;color:maroon;font-weight:bold"]Voter[br]Count[/quote] [div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.75em;padding-right: 4px"]Obama[br]Share[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][br][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 3.25em"]McCain[br]Share[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 1.75em"][br][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 3.25em"]Other[br]Share[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]Obama[br]Votes[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]McCain[br]Votes[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]Other[br]Votes[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em;padding-top: 4px"]DNV (New in '08)[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border: 1px solid;border-bottom: 0px;padding-right: 4px"][b style="color:white;background:maroon"]13.00%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px"]15.8[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid;border-top: 1px solid"]71%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em;border-top: 1px solid;border-bottom: 0px"]27%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;border-top: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid;padding-right: 4px"]2%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]11.19[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]4.25[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em" ]0.32[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em"]Kerry[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border-left: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid;;border-right: 1px solid"]36.62%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px"]44.4[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid"]89%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em"]9% [/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 1px solid"]2%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]39.50[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]3.99[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em" ]0.89[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em"]Bush[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border-left: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid;;border-right: 1px solid" ]46.38%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px"]56.2[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid"]17%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em"]82%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 1px solid"]1%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]9.56[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]46.10[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]0.56[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em"]Other[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border: 1px solid;border-top: 0px;padding-right: 4px"]4.00%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 0px solid "] 4.8[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid;border-bottom: 1px solid"]66%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]24%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-bottom: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid"]10%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:5.5em"]3.20[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]1.16[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em" ]0.48[/quote]

[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 11.75em;;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid white;border-right: 0px"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 0px solid "][b]121.21[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 0px solid black;border-right: 0px"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em;border-top: 0px solid black;border-bottom: 0px sol46.03%id black"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.25em;;font-weight:normal;border-top: 0px solid black;border-bottom: 0px solid black"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 0px solid black;border-left: 0px;padding-right: 4px"][/quote][div align="rig 55.79ht" style="float:left;width: 0.75em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon"]63.44[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon"]55.51[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon"]2.25[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 8.0em;"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.75em;;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid white;border-right: 0px solid "]100%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 24.75em;color: maroon;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 0px solid "][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 1px solid;border-right: 1px"]52.34%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em;border-top: 1px solid;border-bottom: 1px solid"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.25em;;font-weight:normal;border-top: 1px solid;border-bottom: 1px solid"]45.79%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 1px solid;border-left: 0px;padding-right: 4px"]1.86%[/quote]

Done. But…10.16 million late votes have been recorded since Election Day; the vote count is 131.37 million.
Obama has won 59% of the late votes, increasing his vote share to 52.87%. Recalculate the mix.


4. The updated [link:www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p3|Final NEP] Mix and Vote Shares (12/25/08):

[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]Votedin 2004[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 3.75em;padding-right: 4px"]2008Mix[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px;color:maroon;font-weight:bold"]Voter[br]Count[/quote] [div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.75em;padding-right: 4px"]Obama[br]Share[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][br][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 3.25em"]McCain[br]Share[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 1.75em"][br][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 3.25em"]Other[br]Share[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]Obama[br]Votes[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]McCain[br]Votes[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]Other[br]Votes[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em;padding-top: 4px"]DNV (New in '08)[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border: 1px solid;border-bottom: 0px;padding-right: 4px"]13.00%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px"]17.1[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid;border-top: 1px solid"]71%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em;border-top: 1px solid;border-bottom: 0px"]27%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;border-top: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid;padding-right: 4px"]2%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]12.13[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"] 4.61[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em" ]0.34[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em"]Kerry[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border-left: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid;;border-right: 1px solid"][b style="color:white;background:maroon"]37.34%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px"]49.1[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid"]89%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em"]9% [/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 1px solid"]2%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]43.66[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"] 4.42[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em" ]0.98[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em"]Bush[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border-left: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid;;border-right: 1px solid" ]45.66%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px"]60.0[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid"]17%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em"]82%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 1px solid"]1%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]10.20[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]49.19[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]0.60[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em"]Other[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border: 1px solid;border-top: 0px;padding-right: 4px;border: 1px solid;;border-top: 0px"] 4.00%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 0px solid "]5.3[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid;border-bottom: 1px solid"]66%[/quote] [div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]24%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-bottom: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid"]10%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:5.5em"]3.47[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]1.26[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em" ]0.53[/quote]

[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 11.75em;;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid white;border-right: 0px"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 0px solid "][b style="background:yellow"]131.37[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 0px solid black;border-right: 0px"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em;border-top: 0px solid black;border-bottom: 0px sol46.03%id black"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.25em;;font-weight:normal;border-top: 0px solid black;border-bottom: 0px solid black"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 0px solid black;border-left: 0px;padding-right: 4px"][/quote][div align="rig 55.79ht" style="float:left;width: 0.75em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon"]69.46[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon"]59.47[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon"]2.45[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 8.0em;"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.75em;;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid white;border-right: 0px solid "]100%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 24.75em;color: maroon;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 0px solid "][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 1px solid;border-right: 1px"]52.87%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em;border-top: 1px solid;border-bottom: 1px solid"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.25em;;font-weight:normal;border-top: 1px solid;border-bottom: 1px solid"]45.27%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 1px solid;border-left: 0px;padding-right: 4px"]1.86%[/quote]

But the Final NEP is not feasible. The returning voter mix required to match the recorded vote is [link:www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=108x134587|mathematically impossible].


5. The following result is feasible. But the returning voter mix is based on an implausible recorded 2004 vote:

[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]Votedin 2004[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 3.75em;padding-right: 4px"]2008Mix[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px;color:maroon;font-weight:bold"]Voter[br]Count[/quote] [div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.75em;padding-right: 4px"]Obama[br]Share[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][br][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 3.25em"]McCain[br]Share[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 1.75em"][br][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 3.25em"]Other[br]Share[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]Obama[br]Votes[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]McCain[br]Votes[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]Other[br]Votes[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em;padding-top: 4px"]DNV (New in '08)[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border: 1px solid;border-bottom: 0px;padding-right: 4px"]15.85%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px"]20.8[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid;border-top: 1px solid"]71%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em;border-top: 1px solid;border-bottom: 0px"]27%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;border-top: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid;padding-right: 4px"]2%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]14.79[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"] 5.62[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em" ]0.42[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em"]Kerry[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border-left: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid;;border-right: 1px solid;color:maroon"][b]40.40%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px"]53.1[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid"]89%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em"]9% [/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 1px solid"]2%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]47.24[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"] 4.78[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em" ]1.06[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em"]Bush[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border-left: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid;;border-right: 1px solid;color:maroon" ]42.90%[/u][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px"]56.4[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid"]17%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em"]82%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 1px solid"]1%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]9.58 [/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]46.21[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]0.56[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em"]Other[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border: 1px solid;border-top: 0px;padding-right: 4px;border: 1px solid;;border-top: 0px"] 0.85%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 0px solid "] 1.1[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid;border-bottom: 1px solid"]66%[/quote] [div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]24%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-bottom: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid"]10%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:5.5em"]0.74[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]0.27[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em" ]0.11[/quote]

[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 11.75em;;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid white;border-right: 0px"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 0px solid "][b]131.37[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 0px solid black;border-right: 0px"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em;border-top: 0px solid black;border-bottom: 0px sol46.03%id black"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.25em;;font-weight:normal;border-top: 0px solid black;border-bottom: 0px solid black"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 0px solid black;border-left: 0px;padding-right: 4px"][/quote][div align="rig 55.79ht" style="float:left;width: 0.75em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon"]72.34[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon"]56.88[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon"]2.15[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 8.0em;"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.75em;;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid white;border-right: 0px solid "]100%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 24.75em;color: maroon;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 0px solid "][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 1px solid;border-right: 1px"]55.07%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em;border-top: 1px solid;border-bottom: 1px solid"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.25em;;font-weight:normal;border-top: 1px solid;border-bottom: 1px solid"]43.30%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 1px solid;border-left: 0px;padding-right: 4px"]1.64%[/quote]


6. This result is more likely. The returning voter mix is based on the unadjusted [link:www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=494796|2004 State Exit Poll Aggregate] (WPE):

[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]Votedin 2004[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 3.75em;padding-right: 4px"]2008[br]Mix[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px;color:maroon;font-weight:bold"]Voter[br]Count[/quote] [div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.75em;padding-right: 4px"]Obama[br]Share[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][br][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 3.25em"]McCain[br]Share[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 1.75em"][br][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 3.25em"]Other[br]Share[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]Obama[br]Votes[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]McCain[br]Votes[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]Other[br]Votes[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em;padding-top: 4px"]DNV (New in '08)[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border: 1px solid;border-bottom: 0px;padding-right: 4px"]15.85%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px"]20.8[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid;border-top: 1px solid"]71%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em;border-top: 1px solid;border-bottom: 0px"]27%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;border-top: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid;padding-right: 4px"]2%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]14.79[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"] 5.62[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em" ]0.42[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em"]Kerry[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border-left: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid;;border-right: 1px solid"]44.00%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px"]57.8[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid"]89%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em"] 9%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 1px solid"]2%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]51.44[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:5.5em"] 5.20[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em" ]1.16[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em"]Bush[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border-left: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid;;border-right: 1px solid" ]39.30%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px"]51.6[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid"]17%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em"]82%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 1px solid"]1%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]8.78[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]42.34[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"]0.52[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 6.0em"]Other[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background:#FFC1C1;float:left;width: 3.75em;border: 1px solid;border-top: 0px;padding-right: 4px;border: 1px solid;;border-top: 0px"] 0.85%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 0px solid "] 1.1[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 3.5em;border-left: 1px solid;border-bottom: 1px solid"]66%[/quote] [div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 5.5em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]24%[/quote][div align="right" style="background: #E0FFFF;float:left;width: 4.5em;padding-right: 4px;border-bottom: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid"]10%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width:5.5em"]0.74[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em"] 0.27[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em" ]0.11[/quote]

[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 11.75em;;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid white;border-right: 0px"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: maroon;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 0px solid "][b]131.37[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 0px solid black;border-right: 0px"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.25em;border-top: 0px solid black;border-bottom: 0px sol46.03%id black"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.25em;;font-weight:normal;border-top: 0px solid black;border-bottom: 0px solid black"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 0px solid black;border-left: 0px;padding-right: 4px"][/quote][div align="rig 55.79ht" style="float:left;width: 0.75em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: blue"]75.75[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: blue"]53.42[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;color: blue"]2.20[/quote]
[div align="center" style="clear: left;float:left;width: 8.0em;"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.75em;;padding-right: 4px;border-left: 1px solid white;border-right: 0px solid "]100%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 24.75em;color: maroon;padding-right: 4px;border-right: 0px solid "][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 1px solid;border-right: 1px"]57.66%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 2.0em;border-top: 1px solid;border-bottom: 1px solid"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3.25em;;font-weight:normal;border-top: 1px solid;border-bottom: 1px solid"]40.67%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5.5em;;font-weight:normal;border: 1px solid;border-left: 0px;padding-right: 4px"]1.68%[/quote]


The [link:www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p3|Final NEP] indicates that 2004 third-party voters comprised 4% (5.3m) of the 131.37 million who voted in 2008. But there were only 1.2m third-party voters in [link:uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/compare.php?type=national&year=2008&f=1&off=0&elect=0|2004].

[div style="margin-left: 2em"]• Bush won by an official 62–59 million votes — a 3 million margin in 2004.But returning Bush voters comprised 46% (60.0m) and Kerry voters just 37% (49.1m) — a 10.9 million spread.[/quote]
[div style="margin-left: 2em"]• According to voter mortality tables, approximately 3 million Bush voters died prior to the 2008 election. But even assuming 100% Bush voter turnout in 2008, at most 59 million could have returned to vote.Realistically, approximately 95% (56m) voted. Therefore, the Final NEP overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 4 million. And that’s a conservative number, since it assumes that the recorded vote was equal to the True vote.[/quote]

According to the unadjusted [link:www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=494796|2004 State Exit Poll Aggregate], Kerry won by 52–47% (63.6–57.5m).If the aggregate reflected the True vote, then the 2008 NEP overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 9 million.


The Final National Exit Poll anomalies should have been reported by the media. But the NY Times, CNN, ABC, the Washington Post commissioned the NEP.The impossible results will remain official.Otherwise, the public would know that Obama really won by more than 20 million votes.That’s too big a mandate; he would be compelled to enact a progressive agenda.More important, the Corporate Media does not want the public to know that Bushco stole both elections, and that the same Final NEP anomalies existed in 2004.

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