Proving that Obama and Kerry did much better than the official recorded vote is really a simple exercise in logic.

The key is prior election voter turnout. In both 2004 and 2008, the number of returning voters required to obtain the current election recorded vote was not just implausible - it was impossible. This statement is based on an analysis assuming the following:

1) Official recorded vote in 2000,2004 and 2008.
2) 1.2% annual mortality rate.
3) National Exit Poll vote shares of returning voters.

When reasonable, plausible estimates are made for returning voters, the resulting vote shares for Obama and Kerry are dramatically higher.

As a base case, we will assume equal 95% voter turnout for returning Bush and Kerry returning voters in 2008 as well as for returning Bush and Gore voters in 2004.
But because 95% is just a base case estimate, we will try a combination of other turnout percentages to see the effects on Obama and Kerry vote shares.

Let's begin with 2008.



2008 National Exit Poll (forced to match the official recorded vote)

Turnout 2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
- New 13% 17.08 71% 27% 2% 12.13 4.61 0.34
86.5% Kerry 37% 48.61 89% 9% 2% 43.26 4.37 0.97
102.3% Bush 46% 60.43 17% 82% 1% 10.27 49.55 0.60
451.3% Other 4% 5.25 66% 24% 10% 3.47 1.26 0.53

Total 100% 131.37 52.62% 45.52% 1.86% 69.13 59.80 2.44

Key anomalous result: Bush and Other third-party voter turnout is impossible.

Calculate a plausible returning voter mix based on the 2004 recorded vote
(assume a 4.8% mortality rate and equal 95% turnout)

2004 Recorded Est. Vote Died Alive Turnout Voted 2008
Kerry 48.27% 48.27% 59.03 2.83 56.20 95% 53.37
Bush 50.73% 50.73% 62.04 2.98 59.06 95% 56.09
Other 1.00% 1.00% 1.22 0.06 1.16 95% 1.11

Total 100.0% 100% 122.30 5.87 116.43 94.96% 110.56


Turnout 2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 20.76 71% 27% 2% 14.74 5.61 0.42
95.0% Kerry 40.6% 53.39 89% 9% 2% 47.52 4.81 1.07
95.0% Bush 42.7% 56.11 17% 82% 1% 9.54 46.01 0.56
95.0% Other 0.8% 1.11 66% 24% 10% 0.73 0.27 0.11

Total 100% 131.37 55.21% 43.15% 1.64% 72.53 56.69 2.15
Margin 15.84


Sensitivity of Obama Vote share to Kerry vote share and Bush voter turnout in 2008:
Obama's share is 55.21% based on the official Kerry 48.27% share.
Obama's share is 57.47% based on the 52% unadjusted exit poll Kerry share.

Obama Vote Share
(assume 95.0% turnout of Kerry voters)

Bush voter
Turnout Kerry share NEP UnadjEP True Vote
48.27% 49.00% 50.00% 51.00% 52.00% 53.26%
85% 57.6% 58.0% 58.6% 59.2% 59.7% 60.4%
90% 56.4% 56.8% 57.4% 58.0% 58.6% 59.3%

95% 55.21% 55.7% 56.3% 56.9% 57.47% 58.2%

100% 54.0% 54.5% 55.1% 55.7% 56.3% 57.1%
105% 52.8% 53.3% 53.9% 54.6% 55.2% 56.0%
110% 51.6% 52.1% 52.7% 53.4% 54.1% 54.9%

Obama Margin

85% 22.3 23.4 24.8 26.3 27.8 29.6
90% 19.1 20.2 21.7 23.3 24.8 26.7

95% 15.8 17.0 18.6 20.2 21.8 23.8

100% 12.6 13.8 15.5 17.2 18.8 20.9
105% 9.4 10.7 12.4 14.1 15.9 18.0
110% 6.2 7.5 9.3 11.1 12.9 15.1


Sensitivity of Obama Vote Share to Kerry and Bush voter turnout in 2008

Obama's share is 55.21% based on the official Kerry 48.27% share.


Obama Vote Share
(assume 48.27% Kerry vote share)

Bush voter
Turnout Kerry voter Turnout
85% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110%

85% 56.9% 57.3% 57.6% 58.0% 58.4% 58.8%
90% 55.7% 56.0% 56.4% 56.8% 57.2% 57.6%

95% 54.44% 54.8% 55.21% 55.6% 55.98% 56.4%

100% 53.2% 53.6% 54.0% 54.4% 54.8% 55.1%
105% 52.0% 52.4% 52.8% 53.2% 53.6% 53.9%
110% 50.8% 51.2% 51.6% 52.0% 52.3% 52.7%

Obama Margin

85% 20.25 21.27 22.28 23.29 24.30 25.31
90% 17.04 18.05 19.06 20.07 21.08 22.09
95% 13.82 14.83 15.84 16.85 17.86 18.87
100% 10.60 11.61 12.62 13.63 14.64 15.66
105% 7.38 8.39 9.40 10.41 11.42 12.44
110% 4.16 5.17 6.18 7.19 8.21 9.22