TruthIsAll
05-15-2009, 05:34 PM
True Vote Math: Was an Epic Clinton Landslide Denied in 1992?
TruthIsAll
May 17, 2009
The 1992 election was a unique three-party race. Bush I was extremely unpopular due to a stagnant economy, Iran-Contra and the S&L scandals. Clinton defeated Bush by 44.9-39.1 million. Running as an Independent, Ross Perot had 20.4million votes. A majority of Perot’s votes would have been for Bush. Clinton had 370 electoral votes. But he did much better than that.
This analysis will show that Clinton won by nearly 20 million votes with over 500 electoral votes.
Millions of votes were uncounted long before the advent of HAVA in 2004 and the installation of unverifiable touch screen voting machines. In 1988 there were 10.6 million net uncounted votes. In 1992 approximately 9.4 million ballots were never counted. The vast majority (70-80%) of uncounted votes are found in heavily Democratic minority districts. Do the math. Uncounted votes alone reduced the Democratic margin by 5 million in each election. But there also had to be significant vote-switching and ballot stuffing. And millions of disenfranchised voters, mostly Democratic, never even got to the polls.
To determine the 1992 True Vote, the first step is to estimate the number of returning 1988 voters. We need to consider total votes cast in each election. In other words, we need to add the uncounted votes to the recorded totals.
In 1988 Bush defeated Dukakis by 48.9-41.8 million. The Final 1992 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote. It indicated that returning Bush voters comprised 51% (53.3 million) of the 104.4m who voted in 1992 and Dukakis voters just 32% (33.4m). There were 16.7m new voters and others who did not vote in 1988.
But only 46.4m Bush voters were alive in 1992 and approximately 45.5m (98%) turned out to vote. Therefore, in order to force the Final 1992 NEP to match the recorded vote, there had to be an impossible 117% turnout of returning Bush voters – including 7.8 million phantoms. Since the Final was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible voter turnout, the vote count must also have been impossible.
To estimate the True Vote, we need to consider total votes cast in 1988 and 1992.
According to the Census, approximately 102.2m votes were cast in 1988 and 113.9m in 1992 (0.30% MoE). Assuming that 75% (7.5m) of 9.9m uncounted votes went to Dukakis, Bush’s true margin was approximately 1.9 million (51.2-49.3m). Given a 5% voter 4-year mortality rate and 98% turnout of 1988 voters, there were 47.9m returning Bush voters and 46.4m returning Dukakis voters. There were 18.6m new voters who did not vote in 1988.
Applying the Final National Exit Poll vote shares, Clinton won an epic landslide by more than 20 million votes, 57.6-37.0m. Clinton’s recorded margin was just 5.8 million. Since the Final NEP vote shares were used in the calculation, the difference in margin is strictly due to the revised Bush/Dukakis returning voter mix. The original 51/32% mix was shown to be mathematically impossible. The revised 42.1/40.8% mix is mathematically feasible as well as plausible since it is based on total votes cast in 1988.
The sensitivity analysis shows that even if Clinton captured just 81% of returning Dukakis voters and 44% of DNV, he wins by 18 million votes.
It shows that even in the worst-case scenario (Clinton has 17% of returning Bush voters and 44% of DNV) he wins 501 EV.
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1992 True Vote Analysis
Turnout of Uncounted share
Cast Recorded Unctd Rate Mortal Dukakis Bush Clinton Bush Other
1992 113,866 104,424 9,442 8.29% 4.88% 98.0% 98.0% 75% 24% 1%
1988 102,224 91,595 10,629 10.40%
Voted National 1992
1988 Mix Clinton Bush Other Clinton Bush Other Total
DNV 16.32% 46.00% 32.00% 22.00% 8,549 5,947 4,089 18,585
Dukakis 40.75% 83.00% 5.00% 12.00% 38,516 2,320 5,569 46,405
Bush 42.11% 21.00% 59.00% 20.00% 10,069 28,290 9,590 47,949
Other 0.82% 50.00% 50.00% 0.00% 468 468 0 937
True Vote 521EV 50.58% 32.51% 16.90% 57,603 37,026 19,247 113,876
Recorded 43.01% 37.45% 19.54% 44,910 39,105 20,410 104,424
Deviation 7.58% -4.93% -2.64% 12,693 -2,079 -1,162 9,452
Exit Poll (WPE) 45.71% 34.75% 19.54% 47,731 36,283 20,410 104,424
Deviation 4.88% -2.23% -2.64% 9,872 742 -1,162 9,452
Sensitivity Analysis
Clinton % Clinton National Vote Margin Share of Bush Dukakis Clinton Electoral Vote Bush turnout
of DNV Share of Dukakis voters 21% %Unctd Dukakis voter turnout 98%
20,577 81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 521 96% 97% 98% 99% 100%
48% 19,464 20,392 21,320 22,249 23,177 85% 521 521 521 521 521
47% 19,093 20,021 20,949 21,877 22,805 80% 521 521 521 521 521
46% 18,721 19,649 20,577 21,505 22,433 75% 521 521 521 521 521
45% 18,349 19,277 20,205 21,133 22,062 70% 521 521 521 521 521
44% 17,977 18,906 19,834 20,762 21,690 65% 518 518 521 521 521
Clinton % Clinton National Vote Share Share of Bush Clinton % Clinton Electoral Vote Share of Dukakis
of DNV Share of Dukakis voters 21% Bush Share of DNV 83%
50.58% 81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 521 44% 45% 46% 47% 48%
48% 50.1% 50.5% 50.9% 51.3% 51.7% 23% 521 521 521 521 521
47% 49.9% 50.3% 50.7% 51.2% 51.6% 22% 521 521 521 521 521
46% 49.8% 50.2% 50.6% 51.0% 51.4% 21% 521 521 521 521 521
45% 49.6% 50.0% 50.4% 50.8% 51.2% 20% 518 521 521 521 521
44% 49.4% 49.9% 50.3% 50.7% 51.1% 19% 518 518 518 521 521
Clinton % Clinton National VoteMargin Share of DNV Clinton % Clinton Electoral Vote Share of DNV
of Bush Share of Dukakis voters 46% Bush Share of Dukakis voters 46%
20,577 81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 521 81% 82% 83% 84% 85%
23% 20,639 21,567 22,495 23,423 24,351 23% 521 521 521 521 526
22% 19,680 20,608 21,536 22,464 23,392 22% 521 521 521 521 521
21% 18,721 19,649 20,577 21,505 22,433 21% 518 521 521 521 521
20% 17,762 18,690 19,618 20,546 21,474 20% 518 518 521 521 521
19% 16,803 17,731 18,659 19,587 20,515 19% 518 518 518 521 521
1992 Recorded Exit Poll True Vote Flipped to
Clinton Bush Margin EV Clinton Bush Margin EV Clinton Bush Margin EV Bush
44,910 39,105 5,805 366 52,051 39,568 12,484 432 57,524 37,105 20,419 521 14
43.01% 37.45% 5.56% 45.7% 34.7% 11.0% 50.5% 32.6% 17.9% 155 EV
AL 40.9% 47.6% -6.8% 41.5% 47.0% -5.6% 46.4% 36.0% 10.4% 9 9
AK 30.3% 39.5% -9.2% 30.3% 39.5% -9.2% 38.2% 44.3% -6.1%
AZ 36.5% 38.5% -2.0% 39.8% 35.2% 4.6% 10 43.0% 39.2% 3.8% 10 10
AR 53.2% 35.5% 17.7% 6 57.1% 31.6% 25.5% 6 55.1% 27.8% 27.2% 6
CA 46.0% 32.6% 13.4% 55 50.3% 28.4% 21.9% 55 53.3% 30.0% 23.3% 55
CO 40.1% 35.9% 4.3% 9 43.7% 32.3% 11.5% 9 48.9% 34.3% 14.6% 9
CT 42.2% 35.8% 6.4% 7 46.4% 31.6% 14.7% 7 50.8% 32.5% 18.4% 7
DE 43.5% 35.3% 8.2% 3 47.2% 31.7% 15.5% 3 49.8% 33.1% 16.7% 3
DC 84.6% 9.1% 75.5% 3 84.6% 9.1% 75.5% 3 92.0% -6.6% 98.6% 3
FL 39.0% 40.9% -1.9% 41.8% 38.1% 3.6% 27 44.5% 37.7% 6.8% 27 27
GA 43.5% 42.9% 0.6% 15 46.7% 39.6% 7.1% 15 47.8% 34.4% 13.4% 15
HI 48.1% 36.7% 11.4% 4 48.1% 36.7% 11.4% 4 57.9% 26.1% 31.8% 4
ID 28.4% 42.0% -13.6% 28.7% 41.8% -13.1% 37.3% 45.2% -7.8%
IL 48.6% 34.3% 14.2% 21 51.6% 31.3% 20.3% 21 55.2% 28.2% 27.0% 21
IN 36.8% 42.9% -6.1% 40.2% 39.5% 0.7% 11 44.5% 38.5% 6.0% 11 11
IA 43.3% 37.3% 6.0% 7 44.3% 36.3% 8.0% 7 55.2% 28.6% 26.6% 7
KS 33.7% 38.9% -5.1% 35.4% 37.2% -1.7% 43.6% 39.3% 4.4% 6 6
KY 44.6% 41.3% 3.2% 8 46.5% 39.4% 7.1% 8 50.6% 32.4% 18.2% 8
LA 45.6% 41.0% 4.6% 9 45.1% 41.5% 3.6% 9 51.6% 31.7% 19.9% 9
ME 38.8% 30.4% 8.4% 4 41.3% 27.8% 13.5% 4 46.8% 35.8% 11.0% 4
MD 49.8% 35.6% 14.2% 10 53.9% 31.6% 22.3% 10 55.6% 27.5% 28.1% 10
MA 47.5% 29.0% 18.5% 12 51.1% 25.5% 25.6% 12 57.2% 26.8% 30.4% 12
MI 43.8% 36.4% 7.4% 17 46.2% 33.9% 12.3% 17 50.9% 32.1% 18.9% 17
MN 43.5% 31.9% 11.6% 10 46.7% 28.7% 18.0% 10 54.4% 29.2% 25.2% 10
MS 40.8% 49.7% -8.9% 43.3% 47.1% -3.8% 46.5% 36.6% 9.9% 6 6
MO 44.1% 33.9% 10.2% 11 48.4% 29.6% 18.8% 11 52.1% 31.1% 21.0% 11
MT 37.6% 35.1% 2.5% 3 37.3% 35.5% 1.8% 3 48.0% 35.3% 12.7% 3
NE 29.4% 46.6% -17.2% 30.8% 45.2% -14.4% 39.8% 43.0% -3.2%
NV 37.4% 34.7% 2.6% 5 36.3% 35.8% 0.5% 5 43.0% 38.9% 4.1% 5
NH 38.9% 37.7% 1.2% 4 44.0% 32.6% 11.3% 4 43.8% 38.6% 5.1% 4
NJ 43.0% 40.6% 2.4% 15 48.6% 35.0% 13.6% 15 49.4% 33.9% 15.5% 15
NM 45.9% 37.3% 8.6% 5 49.0% 34.2% 14.9% 5 53.0% 30.4% 22.7% 5
NY 49.7% 33.9% 15.8% 31 52.0% 31.6% 20.4% 31 57.4% 26.4% 31.0% 31
NC 42.7% 43.4% -0.8% 44.8% 41.3% 3.4% 15 48.2% 34.2% 14.0% 15 15
ND 32.2% 44.2% -12.0% 34.3% 42.1% -7.8% 44.1% 39.3% 4.8% 3 3
OH 40.2% 38.3% 1.8% 20 42.4% 36.1% 6.2% 20 48.3% 34.8% 13.5% 20
OK 34.0% 42.6% -8.6% 36.4% 40.3% -3.9% 42.9% 39.7% 3.3% 7 7
OR 42.5% 32.5% 10.0% 7 49.3% 25.7% 23.6% 7 52.6% 30.6% 22.0% 7
PA 45.1% 36.1% 9.0% 21 46.1% 35.1% 11.0% 21 53.3% 30.2% 23.1% 21
RI 47.0% 29.0% 18.0% 4 51.5% 24.5% 27.0% 4 57.5% 26.2% 31.3% 4
SC 39.9% 48.0% -8.1% 40.9% 47.0% -6.1% 44.8% 37.5% 7.3% 8 8
SD 37.1% 40.7% -3.5% 35.7% 42.1% -6.3% 48.1% 35.4% 12.7% 3 3
TN 47.1% 42.4% 4.7% 11 50.5% 39.0% 11.5% 11 51.0% 31.5% 19.4% 11
TX 37.1% 40.6% -3.5% 38.5% 39.2% -0.7% 46.0% 36.9% 9.2% 34 34
UT 24.7% 43.4% -18.7% 25.8% 42.3% -16.5% 33.4% 48.9% -15.5%
VT 46.1% 30.4% 15.7% 3 50.4% 26.1% 24.3% 3 53.2% 29.8% 23.4% 3
VA 40.6% 45.0% -4.4% 42.3% 43.2% -0.9% 46.1% 36.5% 9.6% 13 13
WA 43.4% 32.0% 11.4% 11 46.2% 29.2% 16.9% 11 52.5% 30.5% 22.0% 11
WV 48.4% 35.4% 13.0% 5 50.0% 33.8% 16.2% 5 56.9% 26.9% 30.0% 5
WI 41.1% 36.8% 4.4% 10 42.4% 35.5% 6.9% 10 52.0% 31.3% 20.7% 10
WY 34.1% 39.7% -5.6% 37.0% 36.7% 0.3% 3 41.9% 40.8% 1.1% 3 3
1992 Clinton vote shares Clinton Clinton
Clinton Dukakis Bush Other DNV True Recorded Diff <3% Exit Diff <3%
Share 83% 21% 50% 46% 50.51% 43.01% 7.51% 1 45.71% -4.81% 9
Total 38,593 10,012 470 8,449 57,524 44,910 12,614 52,051 5,473
AL 82.2% 20.0% 47.5% 43.3% 46.4% 40.9% 5.5% 41.5% -4.9%
AK 78.0% 14.8% 35.2% 30.0% 38.2% 30.3% 7.9% 30.3% -7.9%
AZ 80.4% 17.8% 42.5% 37.9% 43.0% 36.5% 6.5% 39.8% -3.2%
AR 87.0% 26.0% 61.9% 58.8% 55.1% 53.2% 1.9% 1 57.1% 2.0% 1
CA 84.2% 22.5% 53.5% 49.8% 53.3% 46.0% 7.3% 50.3% -3.1%
CO 81.9% 19.6% 46.7% 42.4% 48.9% 40.1% 8.7% 43.7% -5.1%
CT 82.7% 20.6% 49.1% 45.0% 50.8% 42.2% 8.6% 46.4% -4.5%
DE 83.2% 21.3% 50.6% 46.6% 49.8% 43.5% 6.2% 47.2% -2.6% 1
DC 99.5% 41.3% 98.4% 98.3% 92.0% 84.6% 7.4% 84.6% -7.4%
FL 81.4% 19.0% 45.3% 41.0% 44.5% 39.0% 5.5% 41.8% -2.8% 1
GA 83.2% 21.2% 50.5% 46.6% 47.8% 43.5% 4.3% 46.7% -1.1% 1
HI 85.0% 23.5% 55.9% 52.4% 57.9% 48.1% 9.9% 48.1% -9.9%
ID 77.2% 13.9% 33.0% 27.7% 37.3% 28.4% 8.9% 28.7% -8.7%
IL 85.2% 23.7% 56.5% 53.0% 55.2% 48.6% 6.6% 51.6% -3.6%
IN 80.5% 18.0% 42.8% 38.2% 44.5% 36.8% 7.7% 40.2% -4.3%
IA 83.1% 21.1% 50.3% 46.3% 55.2% 43.3% 11.9% 44.3% -10.9%
KS 79.3% 16.5% 39.2% 34.4% 43.6% 33.7% 9.9% 35.4% -8.2%
KY 83.6% 21.8% 51.8% 47.9% 50.6% 44.6% 6.1% 46.5% -4.1%
LA 84.0% 22.3% 53.0% 49.2% 51.6% 45.6% 6.0% 45.1% -6.5%
ME 81.3% 18.9% 45.1% 40.7% 46.8% 38.8% 8.0% 41.3% -5.5%
MD 85.7% 24.3% 57.9% 54.5% 55.6% 49.8% 5.8% 53.9% -1.8% 1
MA 84.8% 23.2% 55.3% 51.7% 57.2% 47.5% 9.7% 51.1% -6.1%
MI 83.3% 21.4% 50.9% 47.0% 50.9% 43.8% 7.1% 46.2% -4.7%
MN 83.2% 21.2% 50.6% 46.6% 54.4% 43.5% 10.9% 46.7% -7.7%
MS 82.1% 19.9% 47.4% 43.2% 46.5% 40.8% 5.7% 43.3% -3.2%
MO 83.4% 21.5% 51.2% 47.3% 52.1% 44.1% 8.0% 48.4% -3.7%
MT 80.9% 18.4% 43.7% 39.2% 48.0% 37.6% 10.4% 37.3% -10.7%
NE 77.6% 14.4% 34.2% 28.9% 39.8% 29.4% 10.4% 30.8% -9.0%
NV 80.8% 18.2% 43.4% 38.9% 43.0% 37.4% 5.6% 36.3% -6.7%
NH 81.4% 19.0% 45.2% 40.9% 43.8% 38.9% 4.8% 44.0% 0.2% 1
NJ 83.0% 21.0% 49.9% 45.9% 49.4% 43.0% 6.4% 48.6% -0.8% 1
NM 84.1% 22.4% 53.4% 49.6% 53.0% 45.9% 7.1% 49.0% -4.0%
NY 85.7% 24.3% 57.8% 54.4% 57.4% 49.7% 7.7% 52.0% -5.4%
NC 82.9% 20.8% 49.6% 45.6% 48.2% 42.7% 5.6% 44.8% -3.5%
ND 78.7% 15.7% 37.4% 32.4% 44.1% 32.2% 11.9% 34.3% -9.8%
OH 81.9% 19.6% 46.7% 42.5% 48.3% 40.2% 8.1% 42.4% -5.9%
OK 79.4% 16.6% 39.6% 34.7% 42.9% 34.0% 8.9% 36.4% -6.6%
OR 82.8% 20.7% 49.4% 45.3% 52.6% 42.5% 10.2% 49.3% -3.4%
PA 83.8% 22.0% 52.5% 48.7% 53.3% 45.1% 8.1% 46.1% -7.1%
RI 84.6% 23.0% 54.7% 51.1% 57.5% 47.0% 10.5% 51.5% -6.0%
SC 81.8% 19.5% 46.4% 42.1% 44.8% 39.9% 4.9% 40.9% -3.9%
SD 80.7% 18.1% 43.2% 38.6% 48.1% 37.1% 10.9% 35.7% -12.3%
TN 84.6% 23.0% 54.7% 51.1% 51.0% 47.1% 3.9% 50.5% -0.5% 1
TX 80.7% 18.1% 43.1% 38.6% 46.0% 37.1% 9.0% 38.5% -7.6%
UT 75.7% 12.0% 28.7% 23.0% 33.4% 24.7% 8.8% 25.8% -7.7%
VT 84.2% 22.5% 53.6% 49.9% 53.2% 46.1% 7.1% 50.4% -2.8% 1
VA 82.0% 19.8% 47.2% 43.0% 46.1% 40.6% 5.5% 42.3% -3.8%
WA 83.2% 21.2% 50.5% 46.5% 52.5% 43.4% 9.1% 46.2% -6.4%
WV 85.1% 23.6% 56.3% 52.8% 56.9% 48.4% 8.5% 50.0% -6.9%
WI 82.3% 20.1% 47.8% 43.6% 52.0% 41.1% 10.9% 42.4% -9.7%
WY 79.5% 16.7% 39.6% 34.8% 41.9% 34.1% 7.8% 37.0% -4.9%
TruthIsAll
May 17, 2009
The 1992 election was a unique three-party race. Bush I was extremely unpopular due to a stagnant economy, Iran-Contra and the S&L scandals. Clinton defeated Bush by 44.9-39.1 million. Running as an Independent, Ross Perot had 20.4million votes. A majority of Perot’s votes would have been for Bush. Clinton had 370 electoral votes. But he did much better than that.
This analysis will show that Clinton won by nearly 20 million votes with over 500 electoral votes.
Millions of votes were uncounted long before the advent of HAVA in 2004 and the installation of unverifiable touch screen voting machines. In 1988 there were 10.6 million net uncounted votes. In 1992 approximately 9.4 million ballots were never counted. The vast majority (70-80%) of uncounted votes are found in heavily Democratic minority districts. Do the math. Uncounted votes alone reduced the Democratic margin by 5 million in each election. But there also had to be significant vote-switching and ballot stuffing. And millions of disenfranchised voters, mostly Democratic, never even got to the polls.
To determine the 1992 True Vote, the first step is to estimate the number of returning 1988 voters. We need to consider total votes cast in each election. In other words, we need to add the uncounted votes to the recorded totals.
In 1988 Bush defeated Dukakis by 48.9-41.8 million. The Final 1992 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote. It indicated that returning Bush voters comprised 51% (53.3 million) of the 104.4m who voted in 1992 and Dukakis voters just 32% (33.4m). There were 16.7m new voters and others who did not vote in 1988.
But only 46.4m Bush voters were alive in 1992 and approximately 45.5m (98%) turned out to vote. Therefore, in order to force the Final 1992 NEP to match the recorded vote, there had to be an impossible 117% turnout of returning Bush voters – including 7.8 million phantoms. Since the Final was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible voter turnout, the vote count must also have been impossible.
To estimate the True Vote, we need to consider total votes cast in 1988 and 1992.
According to the Census, approximately 102.2m votes were cast in 1988 and 113.9m in 1992 (0.30% MoE). Assuming that 75% (7.5m) of 9.9m uncounted votes went to Dukakis, Bush’s true margin was approximately 1.9 million (51.2-49.3m). Given a 5% voter 4-year mortality rate and 98% turnout of 1988 voters, there were 47.9m returning Bush voters and 46.4m returning Dukakis voters. There were 18.6m new voters who did not vote in 1988.
Applying the Final National Exit Poll vote shares, Clinton won an epic landslide by more than 20 million votes, 57.6-37.0m. Clinton’s recorded margin was just 5.8 million. Since the Final NEP vote shares were used in the calculation, the difference in margin is strictly due to the revised Bush/Dukakis returning voter mix. The original 51/32% mix was shown to be mathematically impossible. The revised 42.1/40.8% mix is mathematically feasible as well as plausible since it is based on total votes cast in 1988.
The sensitivity analysis shows that even if Clinton captured just 81% of returning Dukakis voters and 44% of DNV, he wins by 18 million votes.
It shows that even in the worst-case scenario (Clinton has 17% of returning Bush voters and 44% of DNV) he wins 501 EV.
[code]
1992 True Vote Analysis
Turnout of Uncounted share
Cast Recorded Unctd Rate Mortal Dukakis Bush Clinton Bush Other
1992 113,866 104,424 9,442 8.29% 4.88% 98.0% 98.0% 75% 24% 1%
1988 102,224 91,595 10,629 10.40%
Voted National 1992
1988 Mix Clinton Bush Other Clinton Bush Other Total
DNV 16.32% 46.00% 32.00% 22.00% 8,549 5,947 4,089 18,585
Dukakis 40.75% 83.00% 5.00% 12.00% 38,516 2,320 5,569 46,405
Bush 42.11% 21.00% 59.00% 20.00% 10,069 28,290 9,590 47,949
Other 0.82% 50.00% 50.00% 0.00% 468 468 0 937
True Vote 521EV 50.58% 32.51% 16.90% 57,603 37,026 19,247 113,876
Recorded 43.01% 37.45% 19.54% 44,910 39,105 20,410 104,424
Deviation 7.58% -4.93% -2.64% 12,693 -2,079 -1,162 9,452
Exit Poll (WPE) 45.71% 34.75% 19.54% 47,731 36,283 20,410 104,424
Deviation 4.88% -2.23% -2.64% 9,872 742 -1,162 9,452
Sensitivity Analysis
Clinton % Clinton National Vote Margin Share of Bush Dukakis Clinton Electoral Vote Bush turnout
of DNV Share of Dukakis voters 21% %Unctd Dukakis voter turnout 98%
20,577 81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 521 96% 97% 98% 99% 100%
48% 19,464 20,392 21,320 22,249 23,177 85% 521 521 521 521 521
47% 19,093 20,021 20,949 21,877 22,805 80% 521 521 521 521 521
46% 18,721 19,649 20,577 21,505 22,433 75% 521 521 521 521 521
45% 18,349 19,277 20,205 21,133 22,062 70% 521 521 521 521 521
44% 17,977 18,906 19,834 20,762 21,690 65% 518 518 521 521 521
Clinton % Clinton National Vote Share Share of Bush Clinton % Clinton Electoral Vote Share of Dukakis
of DNV Share of Dukakis voters 21% Bush Share of DNV 83%
50.58% 81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 521 44% 45% 46% 47% 48%
48% 50.1% 50.5% 50.9% 51.3% 51.7% 23% 521 521 521 521 521
47% 49.9% 50.3% 50.7% 51.2% 51.6% 22% 521 521 521 521 521
46% 49.8% 50.2% 50.6% 51.0% 51.4% 21% 521 521 521 521 521
45% 49.6% 50.0% 50.4% 50.8% 51.2% 20% 518 521 521 521 521
44% 49.4% 49.9% 50.3% 50.7% 51.1% 19% 518 518 518 521 521
Clinton % Clinton National VoteMargin Share of DNV Clinton % Clinton Electoral Vote Share of DNV
of Bush Share of Dukakis voters 46% Bush Share of Dukakis voters 46%
20,577 81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 521 81% 82% 83% 84% 85%
23% 20,639 21,567 22,495 23,423 24,351 23% 521 521 521 521 526
22% 19,680 20,608 21,536 22,464 23,392 22% 521 521 521 521 521
21% 18,721 19,649 20,577 21,505 22,433 21% 518 521 521 521 521
20% 17,762 18,690 19,618 20,546 21,474 20% 518 518 521 521 521
19% 16,803 17,731 18,659 19,587 20,515 19% 518 518 518 521 521
1992 Recorded Exit Poll True Vote Flipped to
Clinton Bush Margin EV Clinton Bush Margin EV Clinton Bush Margin EV Bush
44,910 39,105 5,805 366 52,051 39,568 12,484 432 57,524 37,105 20,419 521 14
43.01% 37.45% 5.56% 45.7% 34.7% 11.0% 50.5% 32.6% 17.9% 155 EV
AL 40.9% 47.6% -6.8% 41.5% 47.0% -5.6% 46.4% 36.0% 10.4% 9 9
AK 30.3% 39.5% -9.2% 30.3% 39.5% -9.2% 38.2% 44.3% -6.1%
AZ 36.5% 38.5% -2.0% 39.8% 35.2% 4.6% 10 43.0% 39.2% 3.8% 10 10
AR 53.2% 35.5% 17.7% 6 57.1% 31.6% 25.5% 6 55.1% 27.8% 27.2% 6
CA 46.0% 32.6% 13.4% 55 50.3% 28.4% 21.9% 55 53.3% 30.0% 23.3% 55
CO 40.1% 35.9% 4.3% 9 43.7% 32.3% 11.5% 9 48.9% 34.3% 14.6% 9
CT 42.2% 35.8% 6.4% 7 46.4% 31.6% 14.7% 7 50.8% 32.5% 18.4% 7
DE 43.5% 35.3% 8.2% 3 47.2% 31.7% 15.5% 3 49.8% 33.1% 16.7% 3
DC 84.6% 9.1% 75.5% 3 84.6% 9.1% 75.5% 3 92.0% -6.6% 98.6% 3
FL 39.0% 40.9% -1.9% 41.8% 38.1% 3.6% 27 44.5% 37.7% 6.8% 27 27
GA 43.5% 42.9% 0.6% 15 46.7% 39.6% 7.1% 15 47.8% 34.4% 13.4% 15
HI 48.1% 36.7% 11.4% 4 48.1% 36.7% 11.4% 4 57.9% 26.1% 31.8% 4
ID 28.4% 42.0% -13.6% 28.7% 41.8% -13.1% 37.3% 45.2% -7.8%
IL 48.6% 34.3% 14.2% 21 51.6% 31.3% 20.3% 21 55.2% 28.2% 27.0% 21
IN 36.8% 42.9% -6.1% 40.2% 39.5% 0.7% 11 44.5% 38.5% 6.0% 11 11
IA 43.3% 37.3% 6.0% 7 44.3% 36.3% 8.0% 7 55.2% 28.6% 26.6% 7
KS 33.7% 38.9% -5.1% 35.4% 37.2% -1.7% 43.6% 39.3% 4.4% 6 6
KY 44.6% 41.3% 3.2% 8 46.5% 39.4% 7.1% 8 50.6% 32.4% 18.2% 8
LA 45.6% 41.0% 4.6% 9 45.1% 41.5% 3.6% 9 51.6% 31.7% 19.9% 9
ME 38.8% 30.4% 8.4% 4 41.3% 27.8% 13.5% 4 46.8% 35.8% 11.0% 4
MD 49.8% 35.6% 14.2% 10 53.9% 31.6% 22.3% 10 55.6% 27.5% 28.1% 10
MA 47.5% 29.0% 18.5% 12 51.1% 25.5% 25.6% 12 57.2% 26.8% 30.4% 12
MI 43.8% 36.4% 7.4% 17 46.2% 33.9% 12.3% 17 50.9% 32.1% 18.9% 17
MN 43.5% 31.9% 11.6% 10 46.7% 28.7% 18.0% 10 54.4% 29.2% 25.2% 10
MS 40.8% 49.7% -8.9% 43.3% 47.1% -3.8% 46.5% 36.6% 9.9% 6 6
MO 44.1% 33.9% 10.2% 11 48.4% 29.6% 18.8% 11 52.1% 31.1% 21.0% 11
MT 37.6% 35.1% 2.5% 3 37.3% 35.5% 1.8% 3 48.0% 35.3% 12.7% 3
NE 29.4% 46.6% -17.2% 30.8% 45.2% -14.4% 39.8% 43.0% -3.2%
NV 37.4% 34.7% 2.6% 5 36.3% 35.8% 0.5% 5 43.0% 38.9% 4.1% 5
NH 38.9% 37.7% 1.2% 4 44.0% 32.6% 11.3% 4 43.8% 38.6% 5.1% 4
NJ 43.0% 40.6% 2.4% 15 48.6% 35.0% 13.6% 15 49.4% 33.9% 15.5% 15
NM 45.9% 37.3% 8.6% 5 49.0% 34.2% 14.9% 5 53.0% 30.4% 22.7% 5
NY 49.7% 33.9% 15.8% 31 52.0% 31.6% 20.4% 31 57.4% 26.4% 31.0% 31
NC 42.7% 43.4% -0.8% 44.8% 41.3% 3.4% 15 48.2% 34.2% 14.0% 15 15
ND 32.2% 44.2% -12.0% 34.3% 42.1% -7.8% 44.1% 39.3% 4.8% 3 3
OH 40.2% 38.3% 1.8% 20 42.4% 36.1% 6.2% 20 48.3% 34.8% 13.5% 20
OK 34.0% 42.6% -8.6% 36.4% 40.3% -3.9% 42.9% 39.7% 3.3% 7 7
OR 42.5% 32.5% 10.0% 7 49.3% 25.7% 23.6% 7 52.6% 30.6% 22.0% 7
PA 45.1% 36.1% 9.0% 21 46.1% 35.1% 11.0% 21 53.3% 30.2% 23.1% 21
RI 47.0% 29.0% 18.0% 4 51.5% 24.5% 27.0% 4 57.5% 26.2% 31.3% 4
SC 39.9% 48.0% -8.1% 40.9% 47.0% -6.1% 44.8% 37.5% 7.3% 8 8
SD 37.1% 40.7% -3.5% 35.7% 42.1% -6.3% 48.1% 35.4% 12.7% 3 3
TN 47.1% 42.4% 4.7% 11 50.5% 39.0% 11.5% 11 51.0% 31.5% 19.4% 11
TX 37.1% 40.6% -3.5% 38.5% 39.2% -0.7% 46.0% 36.9% 9.2% 34 34
UT 24.7% 43.4% -18.7% 25.8% 42.3% -16.5% 33.4% 48.9% -15.5%
VT 46.1% 30.4% 15.7% 3 50.4% 26.1% 24.3% 3 53.2% 29.8% 23.4% 3
VA 40.6% 45.0% -4.4% 42.3% 43.2% -0.9% 46.1% 36.5% 9.6% 13 13
WA 43.4% 32.0% 11.4% 11 46.2% 29.2% 16.9% 11 52.5% 30.5% 22.0% 11
WV 48.4% 35.4% 13.0% 5 50.0% 33.8% 16.2% 5 56.9% 26.9% 30.0% 5
WI 41.1% 36.8% 4.4% 10 42.4% 35.5% 6.9% 10 52.0% 31.3% 20.7% 10
WY 34.1% 39.7% -5.6% 37.0% 36.7% 0.3% 3 41.9% 40.8% 1.1% 3 3
1992 Clinton vote shares Clinton Clinton
Clinton Dukakis Bush Other DNV True Recorded Diff <3% Exit Diff <3%
Share 83% 21% 50% 46% 50.51% 43.01% 7.51% 1 45.71% -4.81% 9
Total 38,593 10,012 470 8,449 57,524 44,910 12,614 52,051 5,473
AL 82.2% 20.0% 47.5% 43.3% 46.4% 40.9% 5.5% 41.5% -4.9%
AK 78.0% 14.8% 35.2% 30.0% 38.2% 30.3% 7.9% 30.3% -7.9%
AZ 80.4% 17.8% 42.5% 37.9% 43.0% 36.5% 6.5% 39.8% -3.2%
AR 87.0% 26.0% 61.9% 58.8% 55.1% 53.2% 1.9% 1 57.1% 2.0% 1
CA 84.2% 22.5% 53.5% 49.8% 53.3% 46.0% 7.3% 50.3% -3.1%
CO 81.9% 19.6% 46.7% 42.4% 48.9% 40.1% 8.7% 43.7% -5.1%
CT 82.7% 20.6% 49.1% 45.0% 50.8% 42.2% 8.6% 46.4% -4.5%
DE 83.2% 21.3% 50.6% 46.6% 49.8% 43.5% 6.2% 47.2% -2.6% 1
DC 99.5% 41.3% 98.4% 98.3% 92.0% 84.6% 7.4% 84.6% -7.4%
FL 81.4% 19.0% 45.3% 41.0% 44.5% 39.0% 5.5% 41.8% -2.8% 1
GA 83.2% 21.2% 50.5% 46.6% 47.8% 43.5% 4.3% 46.7% -1.1% 1
HI 85.0% 23.5% 55.9% 52.4% 57.9% 48.1% 9.9% 48.1% -9.9%
ID 77.2% 13.9% 33.0% 27.7% 37.3% 28.4% 8.9% 28.7% -8.7%
IL 85.2% 23.7% 56.5% 53.0% 55.2% 48.6% 6.6% 51.6% -3.6%
IN 80.5% 18.0% 42.8% 38.2% 44.5% 36.8% 7.7% 40.2% -4.3%
IA 83.1% 21.1% 50.3% 46.3% 55.2% 43.3% 11.9% 44.3% -10.9%
KS 79.3% 16.5% 39.2% 34.4% 43.6% 33.7% 9.9% 35.4% -8.2%
KY 83.6% 21.8% 51.8% 47.9% 50.6% 44.6% 6.1% 46.5% -4.1%
LA 84.0% 22.3% 53.0% 49.2% 51.6% 45.6% 6.0% 45.1% -6.5%
ME 81.3% 18.9% 45.1% 40.7% 46.8% 38.8% 8.0% 41.3% -5.5%
MD 85.7% 24.3% 57.9% 54.5% 55.6% 49.8% 5.8% 53.9% -1.8% 1
MA 84.8% 23.2% 55.3% 51.7% 57.2% 47.5% 9.7% 51.1% -6.1%
MI 83.3% 21.4% 50.9% 47.0% 50.9% 43.8% 7.1% 46.2% -4.7%
MN 83.2% 21.2% 50.6% 46.6% 54.4% 43.5% 10.9% 46.7% -7.7%
MS 82.1% 19.9% 47.4% 43.2% 46.5% 40.8% 5.7% 43.3% -3.2%
MO 83.4% 21.5% 51.2% 47.3% 52.1% 44.1% 8.0% 48.4% -3.7%
MT 80.9% 18.4% 43.7% 39.2% 48.0% 37.6% 10.4% 37.3% -10.7%
NE 77.6% 14.4% 34.2% 28.9% 39.8% 29.4% 10.4% 30.8% -9.0%
NV 80.8% 18.2% 43.4% 38.9% 43.0% 37.4% 5.6% 36.3% -6.7%
NH 81.4% 19.0% 45.2% 40.9% 43.8% 38.9% 4.8% 44.0% 0.2% 1
NJ 83.0% 21.0% 49.9% 45.9% 49.4% 43.0% 6.4% 48.6% -0.8% 1
NM 84.1% 22.4% 53.4% 49.6% 53.0% 45.9% 7.1% 49.0% -4.0%
NY 85.7% 24.3% 57.8% 54.4% 57.4% 49.7% 7.7% 52.0% -5.4%
NC 82.9% 20.8% 49.6% 45.6% 48.2% 42.7% 5.6% 44.8% -3.5%
ND 78.7% 15.7% 37.4% 32.4% 44.1% 32.2% 11.9% 34.3% -9.8%
OH 81.9% 19.6% 46.7% 42.5% 48.3% 40.2% 8.1% 42.4% -5.9%
OK 79.4% 16.6% 39.6% 34.7% 42.9% 34.0% 8.9% 36.4% -6.6%
OR 82.8% 20.7% 49.4% 45.3% 52.6% 42.5% 10.2% 49.3% -3.4%
PA 83.8% 22.0% 52.5% 48.7% 53.3% 45.1% 8.1% 46.1% -7.1%
RI 84.6% 23.0% 54.7% 51.1% 57.5% 47.0% 10.5% 51.5% -6.0%
SC 81.8% 19.5% 46.4% 42.1% 44.8% 39.9% 4.9% 40.9% -3.9%
SD 80.7% 18.1% 43.2% 38.6% 48.1% 37.1% 10.9% 35.7% -12.3%
TN 84.6% 23.0% 54.7% 51.1% 51.0% 47.1% 3.9% 50.5% -0.5% 1
TX 80.7% 18.1% 43.1% 38.6% 46.0% 37.1% 9.0% 38.5% -7.6%
UT 75.7% 12.0% 28.7% 23.0% 33.4% 24.7% 8.8% 25.8% -7.7%
VT 84.2% 22.5% 53.6% 49.9% 53.2% 46.1% 7.1% 50.4% -2.8% 1
VA 82.0% 19.8% 47.2% 43.0% 46.1% 40.6% 5.5% 42.3% -3.8%
WA 83.2% 21.2% 50.5% 46.5% 52.5% 43.4% 9.1% 46.2% -6.4%
WV 85.1% 23.6% 56.3% 52.8% 56.9% 48.4% 8.5% 50.0% -6.9%
WI 82.3% 20.1% 47.8% 43.6% 52.0% 41.1% 10.9% 42.4% -9.7%
WY 79.5% 16.7% 39.6% 34.8% 41.9% 34.1% 7.8% 37.0% -4.9%