A preview of Obama's landslide:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

These are the latest RCP pre-election poll averages as of May 23.
Note: Obama's lead is beyond the 4% margin of error in 6 of the 19 states

On an EV-weighted average basis, Obama leads by 46.5-42.8%
Converting to a 2-party equivalent, Obama leads by 52.1-47.9%

From these polls, we can gauge which states are likely to be targeted (and flipped)by the GOP: OH, FL, MI, NH, NM, VA, NC

Sound familiar?


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Poll EV Exceed
EV McCain Obama McCain Obama Margin 4% MoE?
Avg 277 43.3 45.8 63 214 -2.5 6

OH 20 42.7 44.0 0 20 -1.3
PA 21 40.5 46.3 0 21 -5.8
FL 27 44.7 46.3 0 27 -1.6
WI 10 41.7 47.3 0 10 -5.6
IA 7 41.7 47.3 0 7 -5.6

MN 10 39.7 50.7 0 10 -11.0 yes
MO 11 48.0 45.0 11 0 3.0
NM 5 44.0 44.0 0 5 0.0
NV 5 46.0 40.0 5 0 6.0
CO 9 42.0 48.0 0 9 -6.0

MI 17 43.7 44.3 0 17 -0.6
NH 4 44.7 43.3 4 0 1.4
NJ 15 40.0 49.3 0 15 -9.3 yes
VA 13 44.3 43.0 13 0 1.3
NC 15 48.0 42.3 15 0 5.7

GA 15 53.7 40.0 15 0 13.7 yes
OR 7 39.3 49.7 0 7 -10.4 yes
WA 11 39.7 49.7 0 11 -10.0 yes
CA 55 39.0 50.5 0 55 -11.5 yes