TruthIsAll
07-26-2009, 09:07 PM
2004 State Recorded vote, Exit Poll and Bush Approval (11/17/05)
There was a strong 0.87 correlation between Bush monthly approval and his corresponding national pre-election poll average. Kerry led the final pre-election polls (after allocating undecideds) by 51-48%. Bush approval on election day was 48%.
There was also a strong 0.89 correlation between the state unadjusted exit polls and corresponding approval ratings one year after the election. Kerry won the aggregate unadjusted exit poll by 52-47%.
Since 1964, the ONLY election in which the incumbent won with approval under 50% was Bush in 2004. Another interesting statistic. The average 46.50% incumbent True Vote EXACTLY matched the average incumbent approval rating.
These are the key points:
1- Best-fit linear regressions show that WPE (the average state exit poll discrepancy) decreased going from strong Kerry to Bush states. The strategy was simple: Bush padded his popular vote in strong Kerry states (CA,NY etc); the electoral vote was padded in the battleground states.
2- Bush statewide poll and vote shares were strongly correlated to approval one year AFTER the election. There is a strong relationship between approval and election polls.
3- Bush exit poll shares were negatively correlated to WPE. The exit poll vote discrepancies were weighted heavily in favor of Bush.
It's just graphically stating the obvious:
Approval ratings are a powerful indicator of the TRUE VOTE...
National Exit Poll
The Final National Exit Poll Voted 2000 category weightings have already been proven to be mathematically impossible. Similarly, the increase from 2000 in Bush's urban/suburban vote (the Urban Legend myth) has been shown to be totally implausible.
The 2004 trend in Bush monthly approval ratings and pre-election polls provide further proof that the final exit polls were forced to match a fraudulent vote count. Analysis of the data indicates that Kerry won 53% of the vote, a full 5% over his recorded share.
1. There was a strong 0.87 correlation between the 2004 pre-election polls and Bush approval ratings.
2. The NEP and Florida exit poll approval weights did not match the actual Bush ratings on Election Day.
Bush's 11-poll average approval rating was 48.5% on Election Day. The National Exit Poll, updated at 7:33pm Nov.2, indicated 51% approval. But the Final National Exit Poll, posted at 1:25pm on Nov.3, indicated a whopping 53% rating. Corresponding Bush vote shares were also increased. The adjustments were necessary in order to FORCE a MATCH to the recorded Bush national vote share.
Florida Exit Poll
The Final Florida Exit Poll also had 53% Bush approval. Historically, Florida has closely matched the national approval rating. The 53% rating weight was necessary in order to FORCE a MATCH to the Bush RECORDED 52% Florida share. Using the 48.5% national average approval increased Kerry's Florida share slightly to 52%; his preliminary Florida exit poll was at 51%.
1) Florida Exit Poll: from 49.4% to 53.3%.
2) 733pm NEP Update: from 51.2% to 53.2%.
3) Final NEP: from 48.5% to 52.3%.
Incumbent Historical Approval Ratings
Analyzing Presidential elections since 1972 yields some interesting information.
The average True Vote was EXACTLY equal to the incumbent's approval on Election Day.
2004 was the ONLY election since 1968 in which the incumbent won with approval under 50%.
Bush pre-election approval vs. average national poll
http://richardcharnin.com/Poll2004Comparison_12443_image001.png
Bush post-election approval vs state exit poll vs. recorded vote
http://richardcharnin.com/BushRatingStates_5318_image001.gif
Bush monthly national approval trend
http://richardcharnin.com/BushRating_29028_image001.png
Incumbent approval vs. Recorded and True Vote
http://richardcharnin.com/VoteVsApprovalRegression_7284_image001.gif
[code]
Votes in millions
*** Bush 2004 was the only incumbent to win with approval under 50%
Approval Incumb Other True Incumb
Incumbent Rating Vote Vote Vote 2-pty Incumb >50% Match?
1956 Eisenhower 70 35.6 25 57% 58.7% Won Yes yes
1964 Johnson 75 43.1 27.2 60% 61.3% Won Yes yes
1972 Nixon 59 47.2 29.2 57% 61.8% Won Yes yes
1976 Ford 46 39.1 40.8 48% 48.9% Lost No yes
1980 Carter 31 36.5 43.9 44% 45.4% Lost No yes
1984 Reagan 60 54.5 37.6 58% 59.2% Won Yes yes
1992 Bush 30 39.1 44.9 31% 46.5% Lost No yes
1996 Clinton 55 47.4 39.2 53% 54.7% Won Yes yes
2004 Bush*** 48 62 59 46% 51.2% Won No No***
2008 McCain 43 59.5 69.9 41% 46.0% Lost No yes
Average 51.7 46.4 41.7 49.5% 53.4%
The last two columns show the correlation between
Bush Poll and WPE: -0.63
Bush Red-shift and Recorded Vote: -0.42
Kerry Bush 11/05 Kerry Bush BushV Approv .5*Appr
State Share Share Approv Poll Poll /Poll -Poll -Poll Redshft WPE
Average 48.3 50.7 37 52.0 47.0 107.9 -10.0 3.97 3.7 7.4
Correl -0.92 0.92 - -0.90 0.89 -0.53 -0.31 -0.53 -0.42 -0.63
RI 59.4 38.7 26 61.8 36.3 106.5 (10.3) 3.2 2.4 4.7
NY 58.4 40.1 27 64.1 34.4 116.6 (7.4) 8.3 5.7 11.4
DE 53.3 45.8 29 61.3 37.8 121.0 (8.8) 10.5 8.0 15.9
VT 58.9 38.8 29 66.4 31.3 124.0 (2.3) 12.0 7.5 15.0
NJ 52.9 46.2 30 57.8 41.4 111.7 (11.4) 5.9 4.9 9.7
IL 54.8 44.5 31 57.0 42.3 105.2 (11.3) 2.6 2.2 4.4
MA 61.9 36.8 31 64.8 33.9 108.6 (2.9) 4.3 2.9 5.8
CT 54.3 43.9 32 62.2 36.1 121.7 (4.1) 10.9 7.9 15.7
MD 55.9 42.9 32 60.0 38.9 110.4 (6.9) 5.2 4.1 8.1
MI 51.2 47.8 32 54.4 44.7 107.1 (12.7) 3.5 3.2 6.3
CA 54.3 44.4 33 59.8 38.9 114.0 (5.9) 7.0 5.5 10.9
PA 50.9 48.4 34 55.3 44.0 110.0 (10.0) 5.0 4.4 8.8
IA 49.2 49.9 35 50.7 48.4 103.1 (13.4) 1.5 1.5 3.0
ME 53.6 44.6 35 55.5 42.7 104.5 (7.7) 2.2 1.9 3.8
NH 50.2 48.9 36 57.0 42.1 116.2 (6.1) 8.1 6.8 13.6
OH 48.7 50.8 36 54.2 45.4 112.0 (9.4) 6.0 5.5 10.9
WI 49.7 49.3 36 52.0 47.0 105.0 (11.0) 2.5 2.4 4.7
FL 47.1 52.1 37 50.9 48.3 107.9 (11.3) 3.9 3.8 7.6
HI 54.0 45.3 37 56.4 42.9 105.5 (5.9) 2.7 2.4 4.7
MN 51.1 47.6 38 55.7 43.0 110.8 (5.0) 5.4 4.7 9.3
MO 46.1 53.3 38 49.0 50.4 105.8 (12.4) 2.9 2.9 5.8
NV 47.9 50.5 39 52.9 45.4 111.1 (6.4) 5.6 5.1 10.1
VA 45.5 53.7 39 49.4 49.7 107.9 (10.7) 4.0 4.0 7.9
AZ 44.4 54.9 40 46.7 52.6 104.4 (12.6) 2.2 2.3 4.6
AR 44.5 54.3 40 44.8 54.1 100.5 (14.1) 0.2 0.3 0.5
CO 47.0 51.7 40 50.1 48.6 106.3 (8.6) 3.1 3.1 6.1
NM 49.0 49.8 40 52.9 45.9 108.5 (5.9) 4.2 3.9 7.8
OR 51.3 47.2 40 51.3 47.2 100.0 (7.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0
KY 39.7 59.6 41 39.6 59.6 99.9 (18.6) 0.0 0.0 -0.1
SC 40.9 58.0 41 45.9 53.0 109.4 (12.0) 4.7 5.0 10.0
WA 52.8 45.6 41 57.0 41.4 110.1 (0.4) 5.1 4.2 8.4
NC 43.6 56.0 42 49.2 50.4 111.2 (8.4) 5.6 5.7 11.3
TN 42.5 56.8 42 42.8 56.5 100.4 (14.5) 0.2 0.3 0.5
WV 43.2 56.1 42 40.3 59.0 95.1 (17.0) -2.5 -2.9 -5.8
KS 36.6 62.0 43 37.5 61.2 101.4 (18.2) 0.7 0.9 1.7
MT 38.6 59.1 43 37.7 60.0 98.5 (17.0) -0.8 -0.9 -1.8
ND 35.5 62.9 43 32.9 65.5 96.0 (22.5) -2.0 -2.6 -5.2
TX 38.2 61.1 44 40.6 58.7 104.1 (14.7) 2.0 2.4 4.8
GA 41.4 58.0 45 42.5 56.9 101.9 (11.9) 1.0 1.1 2.2
IN 39.3 59.9 45 40.0 59.2 101.3 (14.2) 0.6 0.8 1.5
LA 42.2 56.7 45 44.1 54.8 103.5 (9.8) 1.7 1.9 3.8
SD 38.4 59.9 45 36.3 62.0 96.6 (17.0) -1.7 -2.1 -4.2
AL 36.8 62.5 46 42.5 56.8 109.9 (10.8) 5.0 5.7 11.3
AK 35.5 61.1 47 40.3 56.3 108.5 (9.3) 4.3 4.8 9.6
NE 32.7 65.9 48 36.7 61.8 106.5 (13.8) 3.3 4.1 8.1
OK 34.4 65.6 49 33.5 66.5 98.6 (17.5) -0.7 -1.0 -1.9
MS 40.2 59.0 50 45.8 53.4 110.6 (3.4) 5.3 5.7 11.3
WY 29.1 68.9 53 31.2 66.7 103.2 (13.7) 1.6 2.2 4.3
ID 30.3 68.4 59 30.8 67.9 100.7 (8.9) 0.4 0.5 1.0
UT 26.0 71.5 59 29.2 68.3 104.7 (9.3) 2.3 3.2 6.4
______________________________________________________________________________
Florida Exit Poll (n=2,409 respondents)
Bush approval: 53%
Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other
Strong 35 4 96 0
Approve 18 17 82 1
Disapprove 12 84 13 3
Strong 35 98 1 1
Total 100 48.8 50.3 0.9
Approve 53 9 91 0
Disapprove 47 95 4 1
Total 100 49.4 50.1 0.5
Bush approval: 48.5%
Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other
Strong 30.5 4 96 0
Approve 18 17 82 1
Disapprove 14 84 13 3
Strong 37.5 98 1 1
Total 100 52.8 46.2 1.0
Approve 48.5 9 91 0
Disapprove 51.5 95 4 1
Total 100 53.3 46.2 0.5
______________________________________________________________________________
7:33pm National Exit Poll (n=5,666)
Bush approval: 51%
Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other
Strong 32 7 93 0
Approve 19 17 80 3
Disapprove 12 81 16 3
Strong 37 97 2 1
Total 100 51.1 47.6 1.3
Approve 51 11 88 1
Disapprove 49 93 5 2
Total 100 51.2 47.3 1.5
Bush approval: 48.5%
Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other
Strong 30.5 7 93 0
Approve 18 17 80 3
Disapprove 14 81 16 3
Strong 37.5 97 2 1
Total 100 52.9 45.8 1.3
Approve 48.5 11 88 1
Disapprove 51.5 93 5 2
Total 100 53.2 45.3 1.5
______________________________________________________________________________
Final National Exit Poll (n=6,961)
Bush approval: 53%
Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other
Strong 33 5 94 1
Approve 20 15 83 2
Disapprove 12 80 18 2
Strong 35 97 2 1
Total 100 48.2 50.5 1.3
Approve 53 9 90 1
Disapprove 47 93 6 1
Total 100 48.5 50.5 1.00
Bush approval: 48.5%
Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other
Strong 30.5 5 94 1
Approve 18 15 83 2
Disapprove 14 80 18 2
Strong 37.5 97 2 1
Total 100 51.8 46.9 1.3
Approve 48.5 9 90 1
Disapprove 51.5 93 6 1
Total 100 52.3 46.7 1
_______________________________________________________________
There was a strong 0.87 correlation between Bush monthly approval and his corresponding national pre-election poll average. Kerry led the final pre-election polls (after allocating undecideds) by 51-48%. Bush approval on election day was 48%.
There was also a strong 0.89 correlation between the state unadjusted exit polls and corresponding approval ratings one year after the election. Kerry won the aggregate unadjusted exit poll by 52-47%.
Since 1964, the ONLY election in which the incumbent won with approval under 50% was Bush in 2004. Another interesting statistic. The average 46.50% incumbent True Vote EXACTLY matched the average incumbent approval rating.
These are the key points:
1- Best-fit linear regressions show that WPE (the average state exit poll discrepancy) decreased going from strong Kerry to Bush states. The strategy was simple: Bush padded his popular vote in strong Kerry states (CA,NY etc); the electoral vote was padded in the battleground states.
2- Bush statewide poll and vote shares were strongly correlated to approval one year AFTER the election. There is a strong relationship between approval and election polls.
3- Bush exit poll shares were negatively correlated to WPE. The exit poll vote discrepancies were weighted heavily in favor of Bush.
It's just graphically stating the obvious:
Approval ratings are a powerful indicator of the TRUE VOTE...
National Exit Poll
The Final National Exit Poll Voted 2000 category weightings have already been proven to be mathematically impossible. Similarly, the increase from 2000 in Bush's urban/suburban vote (the Urban Legend myth) has been shown to be totally implausible.
The 2004 trend in Bush monthly approval ratings and pre-election polls provide further proof that the final exit polls were forced to match a fraudulent vote count. Analysis of the data indicates that Kerry won 53% of the vote, a full 5% over his recorded share.
1. There was a strong 0.87 correlation between the 2004 pre-election polls and Bush approval ratings.
2. The NEP and Florida exit poll approval weights did not match the actual Bush ratings on Election Day.
Bush's 11-poll average approval rating was 48.5% on Election Day. The National Exit Poll, updated at 7:33pm Nov.2, indicated 51% approval. But the Final National Exit Poll, posted at 1:25pm on Nov.3, indicated a whopping 53% rating. Corresponding Bush vote shares were also increased. The adjustments were necessary in order to FORCE a MATCH to the recorded Bush national vote share.
Florida Exit Poll
The Final Florida Exit Poll also had 53% Bush approval. Historically, Florida has closely matched the national approval rating. The 53% rating weight was necessary in order to FORCE a MATCH to the Bush RECORDED 52% Florida share. Using the 48.5% national average approval increased Kerry's Florida share slightly to 52%; his preliminary Florida exit poll was at 51%.
1) Florida Exit Poll: from 49.4% to 53.3%.
2) 733pm NEP Update: from 51.2% to 53.2%.
3) Final NEP: from 48.5% to 52.3%.
Incumbent Historical Approval Ratings
Analyzing Presidential elections since 1972 yields some interesting information.
The average True Vote was EXACTLY equal to the incumbent's approval on Election Day.
2004 was the ONLY election since 1968 in which the incumbent won with approval under 50%.
Bush pre-election approval vs. average national poll
http://richardcharnin.com/Poll2004Comparison_12443_image001.png
Bush post-election approval vs state exit poll vs. recorded vote
http://richardcharnin.com/BushRatingStates_5318_image001.gif
Bush monthly national approval trend
http://richardcharnin.com/BushRating_29028_image001.png
Incumbent approval vs. Recorded and True Vote
http://richardcharnin.com/VoteVsApprovalRegression_7284_image001.gif
[code]
Votes in millions
*** Bush 2004 was the only incumbent to win with approval under 50%
Approval Incumb Other True Incumb
Incumbent Rating Vote Vote Vote 2-pty Incumb >50% Match?
1956 Eisenhower 70 35.6 25 57% 58.7% Won Yes yes
1964 Johnson 75 43.1 27.2 60% 61.3% Won Yes yes
1972 Nixon 59 47.2 29.2 57% 61.8% Won Yes yes
1976 Ford 46 39.1 40.8 48% 48.9% Lost No yes
1980 Carter 31 36.5 43.9 44% 45.4% Lost No yes
1984 Reagan 60 54.5 37.6 58% 59.2% Won Yes yes
1992 Bush 30 39.1 44.9 31% 46.5% Lost No yes
1996 Clinton 55 47.4 39.2 53% 54.7% Won Yes yes
2004 Bush*** 48 62 59 46% 51.2% Won No No***
2008 McCain 43 59.5 69.9 41% 46.0% Lost No yes
Average 51.7 46.4 41.7 49.5% 53.4%
The last two columns show the correlation between
Bush Poll and WPE: -0.63
Bush Red-shift and Recorded Vote: -0.42
Kerry Bush 11/05 Kerry Bush BushV Approv .5*Appr
State Share Share Approv Poll Poll /Poll -Poll -Poll Redshft WPE
Average 48.3 50.7 37 52.0 47.0 107.9 -10.0 3.97 3.7 7.4
Correl -0.92 0.92 - -0.90 0.89 -0.53 -0.31 -0.53 -0.42 -0.63
RI 59.4 38.7 26 61.8 36.3 106.5 (10.3) 3.2 2.4 4.7
NY 58.4 40.1 27 64.1 34.4 116.6 (7.4) 8.3 5.7 11.4
DE 53.3 45.8 29 61.3 37.8 121.0 (8.8) 10.5 8.0 15.9
VT 58.9 38.8 29 66.4 31.3 124.0 (2.3) 12.0 7.5 15.0
NJ 52.9 46.2 30 57.8 41.4 111.7 (11.4) 5.9 4.9 9.7
IL 54.8 44.5 31 57.0 42.3 105.2 (11.3) 2.6 2.2 4.4
MA 61.9 36.8 31 64.8 33.9 108.6 (2.9) 4.3 2.9 5.8
CT 54.3 43.9 32 62.2 36.1 121.7 (4.1) 10.9 7.9 15.7
MD 55.9 42.9 32 60.0 38.9 110.4 (6.9) 5.2 4.1 8.1
MI 51.2 47.8 32 54.4 44.7 107.1 (12.7) 3.5 3.2 6.3
CA 54.3 44.4 33 59.8 38.9 114.0 (5.9) 7.0 5.5 10.9
PA 50.9 48.4 34 55.3 44.0 110.0 (10.0) 5.0 4.4 8.8
IA 49.2 49.9 35 50.7 48.4 103.1 (13.4) 1.5 1.5 3.0
ME 53.6 44.6 35 55.5 42.7 104.5 (7.7) 2.2 1.9 3.8
NH 50.2 48.9 36 57.0 42.1 116.2 (6.1) 8.1 6.8 13.6
OH 48.7 50.8 36 54.2 45.4 112.0 (9.4) 6.0 5.5 10.9
WI 49.7 49.3 36 52.0 47.0 105.0 (11.0) 2.5 2.4 4.7
FL 47.1 52.1 37 50.9 48.3 107.9 (11.3) 3.9 3.8 7.6
HI 54.0 45.3 37 56.4 42.9 105.5 (5.9) 2.7 2.4 4.7
MN 51.1 47.6 38 55.7 43.0 110.8 (5.0) 5.4 4.7 9.3
MO 46.1 53.3 38 49.0 50.4 105.8 (12.4) 2.9 2.9 5.8
NV 47.9 50.5 39 52.9 45.4 111.1 (6.4) 5.6 5.1 10.1
VA 45.5 53.7 39 49.4 49.7 107.9 (10.7) 4.0 4.0 7.9
AZ 44.4 54.9 40 46.7 52.6 104.4 (12.6) 2.2 2.3 4.6
AR 44.5 54.3 40 44.8 54.1 100.5 (14.1) 0.2 0.3 0.5
CO 47.0 51.7 40 50.1 48.6 106.3 (8.6) 3.1 3.1 6.1
NM 49.0 49.8 40 52.9 45.9 108.5 (5.9) 4.2 3.9 7.8
OR 51.3 47.2 40 51.3 47.2 100.0 (7.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0
KY 39.7 59.6 41 39.6 59.6 99.9 (18.6) 0.0 0.0 -0.1
SC 40.9 58.0 41 45.9 53.0 109.4 (12.0) 4.7 5.0 10.0
WA 52.8 45.6 41 57.0 41.4 110.1 (0.4) 5.1 4.2 8.4
NC 43.6 56.0 42 49.2 50.4 111.2 (8.4) 5.6 5.7 11.3
TN 42.5 56.8 42 42.8 56.5 100.4 (14.5) 0.2 0.3 0.5
WV 43.2 56.1 42 40.3 59.0 95.1 (17.0) -2.5 -2.9 -5.8
KS 36.6 62.0 43 37.5 61.2 101.4 (18.2) 0.7 0.9 1.7
MT 38.6 59.1 43 37.7 60.0 98.5 (17.0) -0.8 -0.9 -1.8
ND 35.5 62.9 43 32.9 65.5 96.0 (22.5) -2.0 -2.6 -5.2
TX 38.2 61.1 44 40.6 58.7 104.1 (14.7) 2.0 2.4 4.8
GA 41.4 58.0 45 42.5 56.9 101.9 (11.9) 1.0 1.1 2.2
IN 39.3 59.9 45 40.0 59.2 101.3 (14.2) 0.6 0.8 1.5
LA 42.2 56.7 45 44.1 54.8 103.5 (9.8) 1.7 1.9 3.8
SD 38.4 59.9 45 36.3 62.0 96.6 (17.0) -1.7 -2.1 -4.2
AL 36.8 62.5 46 42.5 56.8 109.9 (10.8) 5.0 5.7 11.3
AK 35.5 61.1 47 40.3 56.3 108.5 (9.3) 4.3 4.8 9.6
NE 32.7 65.9 48 36.7 61.8 106.5 (13.8) 3.3 4.1 8.1
OK 34.4 65.6 49 33.5 66.5 98.6 (17.5) -0.7 -1.0 -1.9
MS 40.2 59.0 50 45.8 53.4 110.6 (3.4) 5.3 5.7 11.3
WY 29.1 68.9 53 31.2 66.7 103.2 (13.7) 1.6 2.2 4.3
ID 30.3 68.4 59 30.8 67.9 100.7 (8.9) 0.4 0.5 1.0
UT 26.0 71.5 59 29.2 68.3 104.7 (9.3) 2.3 3.2 6.4
______________________________________________________________________________
Florida Exit Poll (n=2,409 respondents)
Bush approval: 53%
Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other
Strong 35 4 96 0
Approve 18 17 82 1
Disapprove 12 84 13 3
Strong 35 98 1 1
Total 100 48.8 50.3 0.9
Approve 53 9 91 0
Disapprove 47 95 4 1
Total 100 49.4 50.1 0.5
Bush approval: 48.5%
Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other
Strong 30.5 4 96 0
Approve 18 17 82 1
Disapprove 14 84 13 3
Strong 37.5 98 1 1
Total 100 52.8 46.2 1.0
Approve 48.5 9 91 0
Disapprove 51.5 95 4 1
Total 100 53.3 46.2 0.5
______________________________________________________________________________
7:33pm National Exit Poll (n=5,666)
Bush approval: 51%
Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other
Strong 32 7 93 0
Approve 19 17 80 3
Disapprove 12 81 16 3
Strong 37 97 2 1
Total 100 51.1 47.6 1.3
Approve 51 11 88 1
Disapprove 49 93 5 2
Total 100 51.2 47.3 1.5
Bush approval: 48.5%
Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other
Strong 30.5 7 93 0
Approve 18 17 80 3
Disapprove 14 81 16 3
Strong 37.5 97 2 1
Total 100 52.9 45.8 1.3
Approve 48.5 11 88 1
Disapprove 51.5 93 5 2
Total 100 53.2 45.3 1.5
______________________________________________________________________________
Final National Exit Poll (n=6,961)
Bush approval: 53%
Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other
Strong 33 5 94 1
Approve 20 15 83 2
Disapprove 12 80 18 2
Strong 35 97 2 1
Total 100 48.2 50.5 1.3
Approve 53 9 90 1
Disapprove 47 93 6 1
Total 100 48.5 50.5 1.00
Bush approval: 48.5%
Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other
Strong 30.5 5 94 1
Approve 18 15 83 2
Disapprove 14 80 18 2
Strong 37.5 97 2 1
Total 100 51.8 46.9 1.3
Approve 48.5 9 90 1
Disapprove 51.5 93 6 1
Total 100 52.3 46.7 1
_______________________________________________________________