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TruthIsAll
03-06-2009, 08:28 AM
Unadjusted state exit polls reveal 2004 election theft strategy

TruthIsAll

March 7, 2009

A close look at the unadjusted state exit poll deviations from the recorded vote shows a clear strategy of how the 2004 election was stolen. The state exit poll timeline shows the process of how the pristine unadjusted exit polls were changed in the GEO and Composite updates in matching the recorded vote.

The populous Democratic and Battleground states were targeted for election theft. It was not necessary to steal the relatively small number of Democratic votes in the other Republican states. It was a very logical, yet transparent strategy.

1) Flip the close Battleground states: FL, OH, NV, IA, VA, NM, CO, MO, WI
Kerry would have won the election if he had either FL or OH (or a combination of the others).
2) Pad the popular vote in Democratic states, as evidenced by high WPE (over 6.4%): NY, CT, MA, PA, MD, MI, MN, CA, WA
3) Pad the popular votes in Republican states with large (Democratic) minorities: MS, NC, AL, SC, NC, TX
4) Ignore solid Republican states, as evidenced by low WPE (under 2.6%): LA, IN, AR, GA, TN, KS, KY, AZ, OK, ND, MT, SD, WV

There was a massive red-shift to Bush from the exit poll to the recorded vote.
Thirty-four (34) states had a WPE greater than 4.0% - all in favor of Bush.
Although Kerry won 19 of the 34 states, the 2% margin of error was exceeded in all 34 states.
The probability of this occurrence is absolute ZERO!
Kerry won just 2 of the 16 states with WPE less than 4.0% (IL and OR, the only state which votes 100% by paper ballots).

Twenty-seven (27) of the highest 36 WPE states are solidly Democratic or Battleground states. Of the lowest 14 WPE states, 13 are solidly Republican. The other is the Battleground state of Oregon – which votes 100% by mail-in paper ballots.

The discrepancies were particularly high in NY and CA, which indicates massive vote padding. According to exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky, the CA 2004 unadjusted exit poll indicated an 11.6% average Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPE). Kerry's margin was reduced 11.6% from the exit poll (21.5%) to the recorded vote (9.9%). Kerry won the exit poll by 2.652 million and the official recorded vote by 1.235m. That’s a 1.417 million discrepancy.

The NY 2004 unadjusted exit poll indicated a 12.2% average WPE. Kerry's margin was reduced by 12.2% from the exit poll (30.5%) to the recorded vote (18.3%). Kerry won the poll by 2.254 million and the recorded vote by 1.351m. That’s a 0.903 million discrepancy.

To put this all in perspective, Bush's total recorded vote margin was 3.0 million. But since California and New York were landslides, the massive vote thefts went unnoticed. Pundits never considered that election fraud in these two states alone would account for 2.32m (77%) of the Bush 3.0m vote "mandate".


CA 2004 Recorded Vote: 12.420m
Kerry won by 1.235 million
Kerry 6.745 (54.3%)
Bush 5.510 (44.4%)
Other 0.165 (1.3%)

CA Unadjusted Exit Poll (11.6% WPE)
Kerry won by 2.65 million, a 1.417 million discrepancy.
Kerry 7.356 (60.1%)
Bush 4.704 (38.6%)
Other 0.360 (1.3%)

NY 2004 Recorded Vote: 7.391m
Kerry won by 1.351 million
Kerry 4.314 (58.4%)
Bush 2.963 (40.1%)
Other 0.114 (1.5%)

NY Unadjusted exit poll (12.2% WPE/IMS)
Kerry won by 2.254 million, a 0.903 million discrepancy.
Kerry 4.767 (64.5%)
Bush 2.513 (34.0%)
Other 0.114 (1.1%)

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/EvaluationEMElectionSystem2004.htm

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2004ElectionCalculator_2846_image001.gif




Edison-Mitofsky Exit Poll Estimates



UNADJUSTED EXIT POLL
RECORDED VOTE WPE/IMS BEST GEO COMPOSITE

Kerry Bush Margin EV Kerry Bush Margin WPE EV Kerry Bush Margin Error EV Kerry Bush Margin Error EV
Total 48.27 50.73 (2.46) 251 51.98 47.04 4.9 7.39 337 51.04 48.49 2.56 5.01 301 50.26 49.11 1.15 3.60 288

AL 36.8 62.5 (25.6) 41.8 57.5 (15.6) 10.0 42.0 57.5 (15.5) 10.1 40.6 58.7 (18.1) 7.5
AK 35.5 61.1 (25.5) 40.2 56.4 (16.2) 9.3 41.2 57.4 (16.2) 9.3 39.0 58.8 (19.8) 5.7
AZ 44.4 54.9 (10.5) 44.5 54.7 (10.2) 0.3 46.5 53.5 (7.0) 3.5 46.8 53.2 (6.4) 4.1
AR 44.5 54.3 (9.8) 45.2 53.7 (8.5) 1.3 46.8 52.4 (5.6) 4.2 47.0 52.2 (5.2) 4.6
CA 54.3 44.4 9.9 55 60.1 38.6 21.5 11.6 55 56.5 43.5 13.0 3.1 55 56.5 43.5 13.0 3.1 55

CO 47.0 51.7 (4.7) 50.1 48.6 1.4 6.1 9 47.0 52.5 (5.5) (0.8) 47.7 51.4 (3.7) 1.0
CT 54.3 43.9 10.4 7 62.3 35.9 26.4 16.0 7 59.3 39.6 19.7 9.3 7 58.1 40.5 17.6 7.2 7
DE 53.3 45.8 7.6 3 61.3 37.8 23.5 15.9 3 61.5 37.9 23.6 16.0 3 57.7 41.2 16.5 8.9 3
DC 89.2 9.3 79.8 3 90.6 7.9 82.6 2.8 3 91.1 8.1 83.0 3.2 3 90.2 8.4 81.8 2.0 3
FL 47.1 52.1 (5.0) 51.0 48.2 2.8 7.8 27 49.2 50.3 (1.1) 3.9 49.3 50.1 (0.8) 4.2

GA 41.4 58.0 (16.6) 42.0 57.3 (15.3) 1.3 43.5 56.5 (13.0) 3.6 43.0 57.1 (14.1) 2.5
HI 54.0 45.3 8.7 4 58.1 41.2 16.9 8.2 4 56.5 43.4 13.1 4.4 4 53.6 46.4 7.2 (1.5) 4
ID 30.3 68.4 (38.1) 32.3 66.4 (34.1) 4.0 30.9 69.1 (38.2) (0.1) 31.6 68.3 (36.7) 1.4
IL 54.8 44.5 10.3 21 56.6 42.7 13.8 3.5 21 57.5 42.6 14.9 4.6 21 57.0 42.9 14.1 3.8 21
IN 39.3 59.9 (20.7) 40.4 58.8 (18.5) 2.2 40.5 59.6 (19.1) 1.6 41.3 58.8 (17.5) 3.2

IA 49.2 49.9 (0.7) 50.7 48.4 2.3 3.0 7 50.0 49.0 1.0 1.7 7 50.0 49.0 1.0 1.7 7
KS 36.6 62.0 (25.4) 37.2 61.5 (24.3) 1.1 36.6 62.8 (26.2) (0.8) 34.4 64.6 (30.2) (4.8)
KY 39.7 59.6 (19.9) 39.9 59.4 (19.5) 0.4 40.6 58.6 (18.0) 1.9 40.9 58.3 (17.4) 2.5
LA 42.2 56.7 (14.5) 43.5 55.4 (11.9) 2.6 43.2 56.3 (13.1) 1.4 44.3 54.8 (10.5) 4.0
ME 53.6 44.6 9.0 4 55.6 42.6 13.0 4.0 4 54.3 44.6 9.7 0.7 4 53.9 44.4 9.5 0.5 4

MD 55.9 42.9 13.0 10 59.6 39.3 20.3 7.3 10 59.4 39.7 19.7 6.7 10 56.6 42.5 14.1 1.1 10
MA 61.9 36.8 25.2 12 65.8 32.9 32.9 7.7 12 66.3 33.6 32.7 7.5 12 65.7 34.2 31.5 6.3 12
MI 51.2 47.8 3.4 17 54.4 44.6 9.8 6.4 17 51.8 47.3 4.5 1.1 17 51.9 47.1 4.8 1.4 17
MN 51.1 47.6 3.5 9 55.7 43.0 12.7 9.2 9 56.7 42.4 14.3 10.8 9 53.7 44.9 8.8 5.3 9
MS 40.2 59.0 (18.9) 49.4 49.8 (0.4) 18.5 46.2 53.2 (7.0) 11.9 43.4 56.0 (12.6) 6.3

MO 46.1 53.3 (7.2) 49.0 50.4 (1.4) 5.8 47.8 52.2 (4.4) 2.8 47.8 52.1 (4.3) 2.9
MT 38.6 59.1 (20.5) 37.3 60.4 (23.1) (2.6) 37.8 59.9 (22.1) (1.6) 37.2 60.0 (22.8) (2.3)
NE 32.7 65.9 (33.2) 37.0 61.5 (24.5) 8.7 37.5 61.7 (24.2) 9.0 36.1 62.6 (26.5) 6.7
NV 47.9 50.5 (2.6) 52.8 45.5 7.3 9.9 5 49.3 47.9 1.4 4.0 5 48.9 48.3 0.6 3.2 5
NH 50.2 48.9 1.4 4 57.2 41.9 15.4 14.0 4 57.1 42.1 15.0 13.6 4 55.1 43.9 11.2 9.8 4

NJ 52.9 46.2 6.7 15 57.5 41.7 15.8 9.1 15 58.4 40.2 18.2 11.5 15 55.3 42.8 12.5 5.8 15
NM 49.0 49.8 (0.8) 53.0 45.8 7.2 8.0 5 51.7 47.5 4.2 5.0 5 50.8 48.0 2.8 3.6 5
NY 58.4 40.1 18.3 31 64.5 34.0 30.5 12.2 31 65.1 33.8 31.3 13.0 31 63.1 35.5 27.6 9.3 31
NC 43.6 56.0 (12.4) 49.5 50.1 (0.5) 11.9 48.2 51.8 (3.6) 8.8 48.1 51.9 (3.8) 8.6
ND 35.5 62.9 (27.4) 34.6 63.7 (29.1) (1.7) 32.3 66.7 (34.4) (7.0) 33.3 64.9 (31.6) (4.2)

OH 48.7 50.8 (2.1) 54.0 45.5 8.5 10.6 20 53.2 46.7 6.5 8.6 20 51.7 48.3 3.4 5.5 20
OK 34.4 65.6 (31.1) 33.8 66.2 (32.3) (1.2) 34.1 65.8 (31.7) (0.6) 34.6 65.4 (30.8) 0.3
OR 51.3 47.2 4.2 7 53.0 47.0 6.0 1.8 7 53.0 47.0 6.0 1.8 7 50.3 47.9 2.4 (1.8) 7
PA 50.9 48.4 2.5 21 55.1 44.2 10.9 8.4 21 56.9 43.1 13.8 11.3 21 54.2 45.7 8.5 6.0 21
RI 59.4 38.7 20.8 4 62.1 36.0 26.1 5.3 4 62.4 36.3 26.1 5.3 4 63.2 34.9 28.3 7.5 4

SC 40.9 58.0 (17.1) 45.8 53.1 (7.4) 9.7 46.4 52.4 (6.0) 11.1 45.1 53.8 (8.7) 8.4
SD 38.4 59.9 (21.5) 35.9 62.5 (26.6) (5.1) 34.9 63.2 (28.3) (6.8) 36.8 61.5 (24.7) (3.2)
TN 42.5 56.8 (14.3) 43.2 56.1 (13.0) 1.3 40.3 58.5 (18.2) (3.9) 41.3 57.6 (16.3) (2.0)
TX 38.2 61.1 (22.9) 42.0 57.3 (15.3) 7.6 36.5 63.5 (27.0) (4.1) 37.1 62.9 (25.8) (2.9)
UT 26.0 71.5 (45.5) 28.1 69.4 (41.2) 4.3 29.9 69.2 (39.3) 6.2 29.9 68.3 (38.4) 7.1

VT 58.9 38.8 20.1 3 66.5 31.2 35.3 15.2 3 67.0 30.4 36.6 16.5 3 64.5 32.8 31.7 11.6 3
VA 45.5 53.7 (8.2) 49.8 49.3 0.5 8.7 13 50.2 49.7 0.5 8.7 13 48.0 51.9 (3.9) 4.3
WA 52.8 45.6 7.2 11 56.8 41.6 15.2 8.0 11 54.9 44.2 10.7 3.5 11 54.1 44.6 9.5 2.3 11
WV 43.2 56.1 (12.9) 40.2 59.0 (18.8) (5.9) 41.6 57.4 (15.8) (2.9) 44.9 54.2 (9.3) 3.6
WI 49.7 49.3 0.4 10 52.1 46.9 5.2 4.8 10 52.5 46.8 5.7 5.3 10 49.6 49.2 0.4 0.0 10
WY 29.1 68.9 (39.8) 32.6 65.4 (32.8) 7.0 34.5 63.6 (29.1) 10.7 31.6 66.4 (34.8) 5.0