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TruthIsAll
02-19-2009, 06:34 PM
The Great Election Fraud Cover-up: pre-election polls, reluctant Bush responders, "false recall" and the National Exit Poll

TruthIsAll

Mar. 1, 2009

Professional election fraud naysayers are relentless; they will say anything on behalf of the media to discredit the work of serious election analysts who have determined that massive election fraud is an ongoing fact of life. Their goal is to keep the public ignorant. But they are not alone. Democrats in Congress have avoided mentioning, much less investigating fraud, even though it cost them two elections (2000, 2004) and cut their landslide in half in two others (2006, 2008). Election fraud is pervasive.

The latest naysayer fog concerns the polling of newly registered voters. Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of Registered Voter (RV) polls. That new voters essentially comprise the difference between RV and LV poll samples should be obvious by definition. But as soon as a rational polling analysis is presented which indicates election fraud, they quickly respond by disparaging the work and repeating their debunked, faith-based “false recall” argument (see below). In both 2004 and 2008 an analysis of new voters, RV and LV pre-election polls and the Final National Exit Poll (NEP) provides confirmation of election fraud. This analysis will show that the numerical difference between the RV sample and LV subset is in fact due to newly registered voters who are not considered to be likely voters. In other words, we will show that New voters = RV - LV.

The Obama / McCain RV-LV share was 73.3-26.7%, closely matching the corresponding 71-27% NEP shares of new voters.
The Kerry / Bush RV-LV share was 57.8-42.2%; Kerry led the NEP shares of new voters by 57-41%.

Registered voter (RV) polls include all registered new voters; likely-voter (LV) polls are a subset of RV polls and exclude many newly registered. In general, only LV polls are posted during the final two weeks before the election. LV polls are a subset of the total (RV) sample and have consistently understated the Democratic vote. The RV samples are more accurate, especially when there is a heavy turnout of new voters – as in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

The Census reported that 88.5% of registered voters turned out on 2004. The average projected turnout of 5 final pre-election RV/LV polls was 82.8%. A regression analysis of Kerry’s vote share vs. registered voter turnout indicated he had a 52.6% share (assuming a 75% UVA). Assuming the two-party vote, Kerry had a 51.3% share. There was a strong 0.89 correlation ratio between Kerry’s LV poll share and LV/RV turnout. In other words, the pre-election polls underestimated voter turnout by 6%. Newly registered Democrats came out in force.

The Kerry/Bush vote split of the difference (1335) in sample between the RV and LV subset (57.8-42.2%)
matched the 12:22am National Exit Poll new voter share: 57-41-2%.

The 1769 difference between the RV samples (10310) and their LV subsets (8541) comprised 17.2% of the total (RV) sample.
There were approximately 27 million newly registered and other voters who did not vote in 2000, comprising 22% of the total 122.3m vote count.
Of the 27 million, 17m (14% of 122.3) were first-time voters. Kerry won 55% of first-timers.


In 2008, the final RV polls had Obama winning by 13% while the corresponding final LV polls and the Final National Exit Poll (NEP) had him winning by just 7%. Of course, the Final is always forced to match the recorded vote - even if it is fraudulent. The final pre-election LV polls are misleading since they ignore new, mostly Democratic voters; the Final NEP is misleading because it is forced to match a fraudulent recorded vote.

On the other hand, the 2004 pre-election RV polls (after undecided voters were allocated) matched the National Exit Poll (adjusted for a feasible returning voter mix) as well as the pristine unadjusted state exit poll aggregate. So all final pre-election and post election state and national polls were in confirmation. In 2008, the pre-election RV polls (adjusted for undecided voters) matched the Final Exit Poll (57.5%), assuming Kerry was the winner in 2004. Assuming 2004 was fraud-free, Obama was a 55.2% winner. The unadjusted state exit polls have not yet been released.

Pre-election RV polls (after allocating undecided voters) and unadjusted exit polls are a close approximation to the True Vote. In 2004, Kerry was the winner by 52-47%. The RV polls, which included newly registered voters, were close to the True Vote; on the other hand, the LV poll subsets were close to the returning, likely voter shares which represent a subset of the electorate.

Critics originally came up with "false recall" after exit pollsters Edison/Mitofsky used the "reluctant Bush responder" (rBr) hypothesis to explain the 6.5% difference between the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate and the recorded vote. But the rBr conjecture was debunked by the pollsters themselves.They reported a 43/37% returning Bush/Gore voter mix that was immediately proven to be mathematically impossible. So they needed another explanation - and "false recall" was born. In the process, they had to thrash the accuracy of exit polls by claiming that U.S. exit polls were not designed to detect fraud. In fact, the Final Exit Poll is designed to conceal fraud by using impossible weightings and revised vote shares. And the exit pollsters have never been able to give a rational explanation of why they do it.

What else is new? When have the polling naysayers ever agreed with the many independent election research analysts who have come to the same conclusion: the 2004 election was stolen. The pre-election and unadjusted exit polls proved it to a near 100% certainty. And the Final NEP is the ultimate proof. It is always forced to match a miscounted recorded vote by using an impossible returning voter mix and implausible vote shares. The statistical evidence of election fraud is compelling.

False recall was laid to rest in the 2006 midterms. The Bush/Kerry returning voter mix was changed from 47/45 at 7pm to an implausible 49/43 in the Final NEP. And once again, in 2008, the Final NEP shows an impossible 46/37 mix. Well, they say, it’s standard operating procedure. Even if it means matching to fraudulent vote counts. It is so obvious to anyone who looks at the numbers. But all the public sees are the Final National Exit Polls, posted on CNN and printed by the Washington Post and New York Times. And the public also only hears the media sycophants (even the liberals) who know the truth about election fraud but dare not talk about it. After all, they make millions. They have to listen to their bosses: they cannot discuss election fraud.

And yet even today the naysayers are still pushing "false recall": voters who were exit polled misstate whom they voted for in the prior election. They expect us to believe that returning Kerry voters misrepresented their vote to the exit pollsters - and that it was due to “a slow drifting fog”. But they cannot explain why only returning Gore and Kerry voters misstate and not Bush voters. And they don’t respond when they are confronted with the fact that only 25% of exit poll respondents are asked the question “how did you vote in the last election”. And they ignore the fact that it is meaningless to make the “false recall” argument since the Final NEP is always forced to match the recorded vote regardless of what the respondents actually said. The numbers are literally pulled out of thin air to match the vote. The Final NEP was proven to be mathematically impossible in both 2004 and 2008.

Professional misinformationists will surely use the same, lame argument in 2010: that the respondents "misstated" their vote for Obama and told the exit pollsters they voted for McCain. Look for it. And also look for the media to continue to perpetuate the LIE that is the Final National Exit Poll.



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2008 Final Pre-election Polls

RV Sample Obama McCain Spread
Gallup 2847 53 40 13
ABC 2762 54 41 13
Pew 2995 50 39 11

Total 8604 52.33 40.00 12.3


LV Sample Obama McCain Spread
Gallup 2472 53 42 11
ABC 2470 53 44 9
Pew 2587 49 42 7

Total 7529 51.67 42.67 9.0

RV and LV Samples

Total 7937 RV 7098 LV
Obama McCain Obama McCain
Gallup 1509 1139 1310 1038
ABC 1491 1132 1309 1087
Pew 1498 1168 1268 1087

Total 4498 3439 3887 3212
Share 52.3% 40.0% 51.6% 42.7%


RV-LV Obama McCain Obama McCain Spread
Gallup 299 199 101 66.4% 33.6% 32.8%
ABC 228 182 46 80.0% 20.0% 60.0%
Pew 311 230 82 73.8% 26.2% 47.6%

Total 839 611 228 72.9% 27.1% 45.7%
NEP new voters 71% 27% 44%

______________________________________________________________________

2008 Pollster allocations of undecided voters
Note: In allocating a majority of undecideds to McCain, pollsters Ipsos and Pew differed sharply from the others

Undecided Voter Allocation
2008 Obama McCain Spread Obama McCain Spread
Gallup 53 42 11 55 44 11
IBD 47.3 42.8 4.5 51.5 44.3 7.2
Zogby 51 44 7 54.1 42.7 11.4
DemCorp 51 44 7 53 44 9
Ipsos 50 42 8 53 46 7
Pew 49 42 7 52 46 6

Average 50.22 42.80 7.42 53.10 44.50 8.60
50.22 42.80 7.42
Change 2.88 1.70 1.18
UVA 62.9% 37.1% 25.8%


UVA 83.7% to Obama: Gallup, IBD, Zogby, Dem Corp

Obama McCain Margin
UVAProj 53.4 43.8 9.6
Poll 50.6 43.2 7.4
Diff 2.8 0.5 2.3
UVA 83.7% 16.3% 67.4%


UVA 57.1% to McCain: Ipsos, Pew

Obama McCain Margin
UVAProj 52.5 46.0 6.5
Poll 49.5 42.0 7.5
Diff 3.0 4.0 -1.0
UVA 42.9% 57.1% -14.2

______________________________________________________________________


2004 Final Pre-election Polls
0.75 0.25
Actual Poll Undecided voters allocated
RV Poll Sample Kerry Bush Spread Kerry Bush Spread
11/1 CBS 1125 46 47 -1 50.50 48.50 2.0
10/31 Fox 1400 48 45 3 52.50 46.50 6.0
10/31 Gallup 1866 48 46 2 51.75 47.25 4.5
10/31 ABC 3511 48 47 1 51.00 48.00 3.0
10/30 Pew 2408 46 45 1 52.00 47.00 5.0

Average 2062 47.2 46.0 1.2 51.55 47.45 4.1

LV Poll Sample Kerry Bush Spread Kerry Bush Spread Proj.Turnout
11/1 CBS 939 47 49 -2 49.25 49.75 -0.5 83.5%
10/31 Fox 1200 48 46 2 51.75 47.25 4.5 85.7%
10/31 Gallup 1573 49 49 0 49.75 49.25 0.5 84.3%
10/31 ABC 2904 48 49 -1 49.50 49.50 0.0 82.7%
10/30 Pew 1925 48 51 -3 48.00 51.00 -3.0 79.9%

Average 1708 48 48.8 -0.8 49.65 49.35 0.3 82.8%


RV and LV Samples

9629 RV 8294 LV
Kerry Bush Kerry Bush
CBS 518 529 441 460
Fox 672 630 576 552
Gallup 896 858 771 771
ABC 1685 1650 1394 1423
Pew 1108 1084 924 982

Total 4878 4751 4106 4188
47.3% 46.1% 48.1% 49.0%

RV-LV Kerry Bush Kerry% Bush% Spread
CBS 145 76 69 52.6% 47.4% 5.2%
Fox 174 96 78 55.2% 44.8% 10.3%
Gallup 213 125 88 58.8% 41.2% 17.6%
ABC 519 291 227 56.2% 43.8% 12.4%
Pew 286 184 102 64.3% 35.7% 28.7%

Total 1335 772 563 57.8% 42.2% 15.6%
NEP 12:22am new 57% 41%



Regression analysis:
Kerry Vote share vs. Registered Voter Turnout

Reg voter turnout = LV/RV

Two-party
Kerry/(Kerry+Bush) = 0.15+.41*turnout
y=.15+.41x

75% UVA
Kerry =.012+.581*turnout
y=.012+.581x

Kerry Kerry Reg Voter
2-pty 75%UVA Turnout
47.8% 47.7% 80%
48.2% 48.3% 81%
48.6% 48.8% 82%
49.0% 49.4% 83% Pre-election (5-poll) projected turnout
49.4% 50.0% 84%
49.9% 50.6% 85%
50.3% 51.2% 86%
50.7% 51.7% 87%
51.1% 52.3% 88%
51.3% 52.6% 88.5% Census post-election turnout
51.5% 52.9% 89%
51.9% 53.5% 90%

______________________________________________________________________

2004 National Exit Poll Timeline
Returning Gore/Bush voter mix; Kerry/Bush share of New voters

4pm: 39/42%; 62-37%
730pm: 38/41%; 59-39%
1222am: 39/41%; 57-41%
Final: 37/43%; 54-45% (the Final is always forced to match th recorded vote)

-----Returning and New Voter Mix---- -----------Kerry Vote share-----------
NEP Update 3:59pm 7:33pm 12:22am Final 3:59pm 7:33pm 12:22am Final
Respondents 8349 11027 13047 13660 8349 11027 13047 13660
Voted 2000 1916 2545 3100 3168 1916 2545 3100 3168

Did Not Vote 15 17 17 17 62 59 57 54 -3
Gore 39 38 39 37 -2 91 91 91 90 -1
Bush 42 41 41 43 +2 9 9 10 9 -1
Other 4 4 3 3 61 65 64 71 +7

Vote share 100 100 100 100 51.01 50.9 51.41 48.48
Votes (mil) 62.36 62.23 62.85 59.27