TruthIsAll
08-10-2008, 08:14 AM
Implausible Kerry/Bush vote shares required to match the NY/CT recorded vote
This comprehensive statistical analysis shows that the 2004 New York and Connecticut recorded votes were virtually impossible. Hundreds of vote share scenarios were applied to realistic estimates of new and returning 2000 voters. They determined that implausible vote shares were required to obtain the final recorded vote; while realistic vote shares matched the exit polls. The recorded vote cannot be explained by anything other than massive vote miscounts.
In 2004, New York and Connecticut were the only states to exclusively use lever voting machines. Lever advocates need to appreciate the overwhelming statistical evidence that the vote count was rigged. The evidence should be viewed from an unbiased mathematical standpoint.All of the statistical tables should be reviewed and clearly understood.
The following facts are the basis for the tables:
1) In 2000, 6.82m votes were recorded in NY.
2) Recorded vote shares: Gore 60.2%, Bush 35.2%, Nader/other 4.6%
3) Of the 6.82m, approximately 5% died and 95% voted in 2004.
4) Approximately 6.16m Election 2000 voters returned to vote in 2004.
5) In 2004, a total of 7.39m votes were recorded.
6) Recorded vote shares: Kerry 58.5%, Bush 40.2%, Nader/other 1.3%
7) Approximately 1.23m voters were newly registered or did not vote in 2000.
8) In 2004, the vast majority of newly registered voters were Democrats.
9) Kerry’s recorded NY vote share (58.5%) far exceeded his national share (48.4%).
10) Kerry won a solid majority of new voters and returning Nader/other voters.
11) Kerry won 65.8% of 500,000 late votes (absentee, provisional, etc.)
Based on an analysis of the above, one must conclude that Bush’s recorded NY vote share was virtually impossible.
In spite of facts 8-11, Bush’s vote gains in the 15 largest NY counties exceeded those of Kerry.
Scenarios I, II and IV (below) indicate that implausible vote shares are required to match the recorded NY vote.
On the contrary, Scenario III shows that plausible vote shares cause a match to the three NY exit poll measures:
Unadjusted WPE (64.1%), Best GEO (65.1%) and the 12:40am Composite (63.1%)
NY Pre-election and Exit Polls
New York Kerry Bush Nader
Recorded vote 58.5% 40.2% 1.3%
Final pre-election poll 57 39 1
Projection 59 40 1
Edison-Mitofsky Exit Poll Measures
WPE (11.4) 64.1% 34.4% 1.5%
Best Estimate 65.1 33.8 1.1
Composite 63.1 35.5 1.4
Connecticut
A similar analysis shows that Connecticut was miscounted as well.
The WPE was a whopping (15.7%), compared to NY (11.4%)
1) In 2000, 1.46m votes were recorded in CT.
2) Recorded vote shares: Gore 55.9%, Bush 38.4%, Nader/other 5.7%
3) Of the 1.46m, approximately 5% died and 95% voted in 2004.
4) Approximately 1.32 Election 2000 voters returned to vote in 2004.
5) In 2004, a total of 1.58m votes were recorded.
6) Recorded vote shares: Kerry 54.3%, Bush 44.0%, Nader/other 1.7%
7) Approximately 0.26m voters were newly registered or did not vote in 2000.
8) The vast majority of newly registered voters were Democrats.
9) Kerry’s recorded CT vote share (54.3%) far exceeded his national share (48.4%).
10) Kerry won a solid majority of new voters and returning Nader/other voters.
11) Kerry won the exit poll with 62.2%
Kerry’s recorded margin was 160,000 votes, but his True margin was 400,000 votes.
CT Pre-election Kerry Bush Nader
Poll 52 42 6
Projection 55.8 43.2 1.0
Recorded vote 54.3% 43.9% 1.9%
CT Exit Poll Timeline
WPE (15.7) 62.2% 36.1% 1.7%
GEO Best Estimate 59.3 39.6 1.1
Composite (12:40am) 58.1 40.5 1.6
Approximately 1.0 million of the 3.0 million Bush 2004 margin was due to vote miscounts in NY and CT.
NY added 750,000 votes; CT added 240,000.
__________________________________________________________________________
Unadjusted (WPE) 51-State Exit Poll National Aggregate:
Method Kerry Avg WPE Wtd Avg Description
VNS 51.81% 5.95% 7.09% VNS: 4 outliers removed from average
DSS 52.15% 6.73% 7.77% Decision Summary Screen: 4 outliers removed
IMS 51.91% 6.29% 7.37% Input Mgt Screen: no outliers removed
_______________________________________________________________________
2004 New York Election Calculator
Scenario I:
Implausible Shares of New (DNV) voters required to match the NY recorded vote
To match the NY recorded vote Bush needed 689,000 (56%) of new voters.
Therefore, Kerry had 516,000 (42%) - an implausible scenario:
a)Kerry won new voters nationally with 57-62%(see the National Exit Poll timeline).
b)Kerry's recorded 58.5% vote share in NY exceeded his 48.4% national share.
c)Kerry’s 64% NY Exit Poll exceeded his 52% aggregate state exit poll.
Conclusion:
It is reasonable to assume that Kerry won new voters in NY by 66-33%.
Bush’s 40.2% recorded NY vote share is virtually impossible (see below).
2000 2004 Required Vote Shares
Recorded Died Alive Voted Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV (adj) - - - - 1.23 16.7% 42% 56% 2%
Gore 4.11 0.20 3.91 95% 3.71 50.2% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 2.40 0.12 2.29 95% 2.17 29.3% 10% 90% 0%
Other 0.31 0.01 0.30 95% 0.28 3.8% 71% 21% 8%
Total 6.82 0.33 6.49 6.16 7.39 100% 58.3% 40.6% 1.1%
Total 7.39 4.31 3.00 0.08
Scenario II:
Implausible Shares of Gore, Bush and New (DNV) voters required to match the NY recorded vote
Kerry’s Final NEP national vote shares had to be reduced in NY in order to match the recorded vote.
Kerry's recorded 58.5% NY vote share far exceeded his 48.4% national share.
Kerry’s NY vote shares were obviously higher than the corresponding NEP shares.
Conclusion:
Bush’s 40.2% recorded NY vote share is virtually impossible (see below).
2000 2004 Required Vote Shares
Recorded Died Alive Voted Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - - - - 1.23 16.7% 53% 45% 2%
Gore 4.11 0.20 3.91 95% 3.71 50.2% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 2.40 0.12 2.29 95% 2.17 29.3% 8% 92% 0%
Other 0.31 0.01 0.30 95% 0.28 3.8% 71% 21% 8%
Total 6.82 0.33 6.49 6.16 7.39 100% 58.6% 40.3% 1.1%
Total 7.39 4.33 2.98 0.08
Scenario III:
Plausible Shares of Gore, Bush and New (DNV) voters required to match the NY exit poll
Kerry’s NEP vote shares had to be increased to match the NY exit poll (see below).
Kerry's recorded 58.5% NY vote share far exceeded his 48.3% national share.
Therefore, Kerry’s NY vote shares were higher than the corresponding NEP shares.
Conclusion:
Kerry’s recorded 1.35m vote margin (Kerry 58.5-Bush 40.2%) was 750,000 too low.
Kerry won by 64-35% (approximate), a 2.1 million vote margin.
2000 2004 Required Vote Shares
Recorded Died Alive Voted Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - - - - 1.23 16.7% 66% 32% 2%
Gore 4.11 0.20 3.91 95% 3.71 50.2% 93% 6% 1%
Bush 2.40 0.12 2.29 95% 2.17 29.3% 12% 88% 0%
Other 0.31 0.01 0.30 95% 0.28 3.8% 75% 17% 8%
Total 6.82 0.33 6.49 6.16 7.39 100% 64.1% 34.8% 1.1%
Total 7.39 4.73 2.57 0.08
Scenario IV:
Impossible Shares of new (DNV) voters required to match the NY recorded vote
This scenario assumes Scenario III vote shares.
Bush needed 66% of new voters in order to match the recorded vote.
This is not implausible; it is impossible.
Scenario III indicates he had 32%.
Conclusion:
Kerry’s recorded 1.35m vote margin (Kerry 58.5-Bush 40.2%) was 750,000 too low.
Kerry won by 64-35% (approximate), a 2.1 million vote margin.
2000 2004 Required Vote Shares
Recorded Died Alive Voted Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - - - - 1.23 16.7% 32% 66% 2%
Gore 4.11 0.20 3.91 95% 3.71 50.2% 93% 6% 1%
Bush 2.40 0.12 2.29 95% 2.17 29.3% 12% 88% 0%
Other 0.31 0.01 0.30 95% 0.28 3.8% 75% 17% 8%
Total 6.82 0.33 6.49 6.16 7.39 100% 58.4% 40.5% 1.1%
Total 7.39 4.31 2.99 0.08
Sensitivity Analysis
25 scenario combinations of Kerry's share of New and Gore 2000 voters
Note the scenario which matches the recorded vote share (58.4-40.2%):
Bush needed 50% of new voters and 13% of Kerry voters.
But in the Final NEP, Bush had 45% of new voters and 10% of Kerry voters.
How could he have done 3-5% better in NY than he did nationally?
His national share was 10% higher than his NY share.
Conclusion:
He could not have won 40.2% of the New York vote.
Share
of Gore Share of New voters (DNV)
Voters 50% 54% 58% 62% 66%
Kerry NY Vote Share
95% 62.4% 63.0% 63.7% 64.4% 65.1%
93% 61.4% 62.0% 62.7% 63.4% 64.0%
91% 60.4% 61.0% 61.7% 62.4% 63.0%
89% 59.4% 60.0% 60.7% 61.4% 62.0%
87% 58.4% 59.0% 59.7% 60.4% 61.0%
Kerry Margin
95% 1.91 2.01 2.11 2.21 2.31
93% 1.77 1.86 1.96 2.06 2.16
91% 1.62 1.72 1.82 1.91 2.01
89% 1.47 1.57 1.67 1.77 1.86
87% 1.32 1.42 1.52 1.62 1.72
_________________________________________________________________
Sensitivity Analysis
105 Kerry Vote Share Scenarios
Kerry vote share scenario ranges:
of Bush: 9-11%
of Gore:86-94%
of New: 30-70%
Implausible scenarios:
Kerry share equal to Recorded vote:58.4%
Plausible scenarios:
Kerry share equal to Exit Poll:64.1%
Kerry Share of New Voters
Implausible Plausible
Gore 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%
Kerry share of Bush:11%
94.0% 58.1% 59.8% 61.4% 63.1% 64.8% plausible
92.0% 57.1% 58.8% 60.4% 62.1% 63.8%
90.0% 56.1% 57.8% 59.4% 61.1% 62.8%
88.0% 55.1% 56.8% 58.4% 60.1% 61.8% implausible
86.0% 54.1% 55.7% 57.4% 59.1% 60.8%
85.0% 53.1% 54.7% 56.4% 58.1% 59.8%
84.0% 52.1% 53.7% 55.4% 57.1% 58.8%
Kerry share of Bush:10%
94.0% 57.8% 59.5% 61.1% 62.8% 64.5% plausible
92.0% 56.8% 58.5% 60.1% 61.8% 63.5%
90.0% 55.8% 57.5% 59.1% 60.8% 62.5%
88.0% 54.8% 56.5% 58.1% 59.8% 61.5% implausible
86.0% 53.8% 55.5% 57.1% 58.8% 60.5%
85.0% 52.8% 54.5% 56.1% 57.8% 59.5%
84.0% 51.8% 53.5% 55.1% 56.8% 58.5%
Kerry share of Bush:9%
94.0% 57.5% 59.2% 60.8% 62.5% 64.2% plausible
92.0% 56.5% 58.2% 59.8% 61.5% 63.2%
90.0% 55.5% 57.2% 58.8% 60.5% 62.2%
88.0% 54.5% 56.2% 57.8% 59.5% 61.2% implausible
86.0% 53.5% 55.2% 56.8% 58.5% 60.2%
85.0% 52.5% 54.2% 55.8% 57.5% 59.2%
84.0% 51.5% 53.2% 54.8% 56.5% 58.2%
_________________________________________________________________
Connecticut
2000 recorded
Gore Bush Other Total
0.816 0.561 0.082 1.460
55.9% 38.4% 5.6%
2004 recorded
Kerry Bush Other Total
0.857 0.694 0.027 1.579
54.3% 44.0% 1.7%
2004 Exit Poll
62.2% 36.1% 1.7%
Kerry’s recorded margin was 160,000 votes.
The following scenarios indicate that his True margin was 400,000 votes.
Scenario I:
Implausible Shares of Gore, Bush and New (DNV) voters required to match the recorded vote
Kerry’s Final NEP vote shares had to be decreased to match the CT recorded vote.
This is logical and expected: Kerry's recorded 54.3% CT vote share far exceeded his 48.3% national share.
Therefore, Kerry’s CT vote shares were obviously higher than the corresponding NEP shares.
2000 2004 Required Vote Shares
Recorded Died Alive Voted Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - - - - 0.26 16.6% 52% 46% 2%
Gore 0.82 0.04 0.78 95% 0.73 46.5% 86% 14% 1%
Bush 0.56 0.03 0.51 95% 0.51 32.3% 8% 92% 0%
Other 0.08 0.00 0.08 95% 0.07 4.7% 65% 27% 8%
Total 1.46 0.07 1.39 1.32 1.58 100% 54.2% 44.6% 1.2%
Total 1.58 0.86 0.70 0.02
Scenario II:
Plausible Shares of Gore, Bush and New (DNV) voters required to match the exit poll
Conclusion: Kerry’s recorded 160k margin (Kerry 54.3-Bush 44.0%) was too low.
Kerry won by approximately 62-37%, a 400k vote margin.
2000 2004 Required Vote Shares
Recorded Died Alive Voted Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - - - - 0.26 16.6% 66% 32% 2%
Gore 0.82 0.04 0.78 95% 0.73 46.5% 94% 5% 1%
Bush 0.56 0.03 0.51 95% 0.51 32.3% 12% 88% 0%
Other 0.08 0.00 0.08 95% 0.07 4.7% 75% 17% 8%
Total 1.46 0.07 1.39 1.32 1.58 100% 62.0% 36.8% 1.2%
Total 1.58 0.98 0.58 0.02
This comprehensive statistical analysis shows that the 2004 New York and Connecticut recorded votes were virtually impossible. Hundreds of vote share scenarios were applied to realistic estimates of new and returning 2000 voters. They determined that implausible vote shares were required to obtain the final recorded vote; while realistic vote shares matched the exit polls. The recorded vote cannot be explained by anything other than massive vote miscounts.
In 2004, New York and Connecticut were the only states to exclusively use lever voting machines. Lever advocates need to appreciate the overwhelming statistical evidence that the vote count was rigged. The evidence should be viewed from an unbiased mathematical standpoint.All of the statistical tables should be reviewed and clearly understood.
The following facts are the basis for the tables:
1) In 2000, 6.82m votes were recorded in NY.
2) Recorded vote shares: Gore 60.2%, Bush 35.2%, Nader/other 4.6%
3) Of the 6.82m, approximately 5% died and 95% voted in 2004.
4) Approximately 6.16m Election 2000 voters returned to vote in 2004.
5) In 2004, a total of 7.39m votes were recorded.
6) Recorded vote shares: Kerry 58.5%, Bush 40.2%, Nader/other 1.3%
7) Approximately 1.23m voters were newly registered or did not vote in 2000.
8) In 2004, the vast majority of newly registered voters were Democrats.
9) Kerry’s recorded NY vote share (58.5%) far exceeded his national share (48.4%).
10) Kerry won a solid majority of new voters and returning Nader/other voters.
11) Kerry won 65.8% of 500,000 late votes (absentee, provisional, etc.)
Based on an analysis of the above, one must conclude that Bush’s recorded NY vote share was virtually impossible.
In spite of facts 8-11, Bush’s vote gains in the 15 largest NY counties exceeded those of Kerry.
Scenarios I, II and IV (below) indicate that implausible vote shares are required to match the recorded NY vote.
On the contrary, Scenario III shows that plausible vote shares cause a match to the three NY exit poll measures:
Unadjusted WPE (64.1%), Best GEO (65.1%) and the 12:40am Composite (63.1%)
NY Pre-election and Exit Polls
New York Kerry Bush Nader
Recorded vote 58.5% 40.2% 1.3%
Final pre-election poll 57 39 1
Projection 59 40 1
Edison-Mitofsky Exit Poll Measures
WPE (11.4) 64.1% 34.4% 1.5%
Best Estimate 65.1 33.8 1.1
Composite 63.1 35.5 1.4
Connecticut
A similar analysis shows that Connecticut was miscounted as well.
The WPE was a whopping (15.7%), compared to NY (11.4%)
1) In 2000, 1.46m votes were recorded in CT.
2) Recorded vote shares: Gore 55.9%, Bush 38.4%, Nader/other 5.7%
3) Of the 1.46m, approximately 5% died and 95% voted in 2004.
4) Approximately 1.32 Election 2000 voters returned to vote in 2004.
5) In 2004, a total of 1.58m votes were recorded.
6) Recorded vote shares: Kerry 54.3%, Bush 44.0%, Nader/other 1.7%
7) Approximately 0.26m voters were newly registered or did not vote in 2000.
8) The vast majority of newly registered voters were Democrats.
9) Kerry’s recorded CT vote share (54.3%) far exceeded his national share (48.4%).
10) Kerry won a solid majority of new voters and returning Nader/other voters.
11) Kerry won the exit poll with 62.2%
Kerry’s recorded margin was 160,000 votes, but his True margin was 400,000 votes.
CT Pre-election Kerry Bush Nader
Poll 52 42 6
Projection 55.8 43.2 1.0
Recorded vote 54.3% 43.9% 1.9%
CT Exit Poll Timeline
WPE (15.7) 62.2% 36.1% 1.7%
GEO Best Estimate 59.3 39.6 1.1
Composite (12:40am) 58.1 40.5 1.6
Approximately 1.0 million of the 3.0 million Bush 2004 margin was due to vote miscounts in NY and CT.
NY added 750,000 votes; CT added 240,000.
__________________________________________________________________________
Unadjusted (WPE) 51-State Exit Poll National Aggregate:
Method Kerry Avg WPE Wtd Avg Description
VNS 51.81% 5.95% 7.09% VNS: 4 outliers removed from average
DSS 52.15% 6.73% 7.77% Decision Summary Screen: 4 outliers removed
IMS 51.91% 6.29% 7.37% Input Mgt Screen: no outliers removed
_______________________________________________________________________
2004 New York Election Calculator
Scenario I:
Implausible Shares of New (DNV) voters required to match the NY recorded vote
To match the NY recorded vote Bush needed 689,000 (56%) of new voters.
Therefore, Kerry had 516,000 (42%) - an implausible scenario:
a)Kerry won new voters nationally with 57-62%(see the National Exit Poll timeline).
b)Kerry's recorded 58.5% vote share in NY exceeded his 48.4% national share.
c)Kerry’s 64% NY Exit Poll exceeded his 52% aggregate state exit poll.
Conclusion:
It is reasonable to assume that Kerry won new voters in NY by 66-33%.
Bush’s 40.2% recorded NY vote share is virtually impossible (see below).
2000 2004 Required Vote Shares
Recorded Died Alive Voted Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV (adj) - - - - 1.23 16.7% 42% 56% 2%
Gore 4.11 0.20 3.91 95% 3.71 50.2% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 2.40 0.12 2.29 95% 2.17 29.3% 10% 90% 0%
Other 0.31 0.01 0.30 95% 0.28 3.8% 71% 21% 8%
Total 6.82 0.33 6.49 6.16 7.39 100% 58.3% 40.6% 1.1%
Total 7.39 4.31 3.00 0.08
Scenario II:
Implausible Shares of Gore, Bush and New (DNV) voters required to match the NY recorded vote
Kerry’s Final NEP national vote shares had to be reduced in NY in order to match the recorded vote.
Kerry's recorded 58.5% NY vote share far exceeded his 48.4% national share.
Kerry’s NY vote shares were obviously higher than the corresponding NEP shares.
Conclusion:
Bush’s 40.2% recorded NY vote share is virtually impossible (see below).
2000 2004 Required Vote Shares
Recorded Died Alive Voted Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - - - - 1.23 16.7% 53% 45% 2%
Gore 4.11 0.20 3.91 95% 3.71 50.2% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 2.40 0.12 2.29 95% 2.17 29.3% 8% 92% 0%
Other 0.31 0.01 0.30 95% 0.28 3.8% 71% 21% 8%
Total 6.82 0.33 6.49 6.16 7.39 100% 58.6% 40.3% 1.1%
Total 7.39 4.33 2.98 0.08
Scenario III:
Plausible Shares of Gore, Bush and New (DNV) voters required to match the NY exit poll
Kerry’s NEP vote shares had to be increased to match the NY exit poll (see below).
Kerry's recorded 58.5% NY vote share far exceeded his 48.3% national share.
Therefore, Kerry’s NY vote shares were higher than the corresponding NEP shares.
Conclusion:
Kerry’s recorded 1.35m vote margin (Kerry 58.5-Bush 40.2%) was 750,000 too low.
Kerry won by 64-35% (approximate), a 2.1 million vote margin.
2000 2004 Required Vote Shares
Recorded Died Alive Voted Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - - - - 1.23 16.7% 66% 32% 2%
Gore 4.11 0.20 3.91 95% 3.71 50.2% 93% 6% 1%
Bush 2.40 0.12 2.29 95% 2.17 29.3% 12% 88% 0%
Other 0.31 0.01 0.30 95% 0.28 3.8% 75% 17% 8%
Total 6.82 0.33 6.49 6.16 7.39 100% 64.1% 34.8% 1.1%
Total 7.39 4.73 2.57 0.08
Scenario IV:
Impossible Shares of new (DNV) voters required to match the NY recorded vote
This scenario assumes Scenario III vote shares.
Bush needed 66% of new voters in order to match the recorded vote.
This is not implausible; it is impossible.
Scenario III indicates he had 32%.
Conclusion:
Kerry’s recorded 1.35m vote margin (Kerry 58.5-Bush 40.2%) was 750,000 too low.
Kerry won by 64-35% (approximate), a 2.1 million vote margin.
2000 2004 Required Vote Shares
Recorded Died Alive Voted Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - - - - 1.23 16.7% 32% 66% 2%
Gore 4.11 0.20 3.91 95% 3.71 50.2% 93% 6% 1%
Bush 2.40 0.12 2.29 95% 2.17 29.3% 12% 88% 0%
Other 0.31 0.01 0.30 95% 0.28 3.8% 75% 17% 8%
Total 6.82 0.33 6.49 6.16 7.39 100% 58.4% 40.5% 1.1%
Total 7.39 4.31 2.99 0.08
Sensitivity Analysis
25 scenario combinations of Kerry's share of New and Gore 2000 voters
Note the scenario which matches the recorded vote share (58.4-40.2%):
Bush needed 50% of new voters and 13% of Kerry voters.
But in the Final NEP, Bush had 45% of new voters and 10% of Kerry voters.
How could he have done 3-5% better in NY than he did nationally?
His national share was 10% higher than his NY share.
Conclusion:
He could not have won 40.2% of the New York vote.
Share
of Gore Share of New voters (DNV)
Voters 50% 54% 58% 62% 66%
Kerry NY Vote Share
95% 62.4% 63.0% 63.7% 64.4% 65.1%
93% 61.4% 62.0% 62.7% 63.4% 64.0%
91% 60.4% 61.0% 61.7% 62.4% 63.0%
89% 59.4% 60.0% 60.7% 61.4% 62.0%
87% 58.4% 59.0% 59.7% 60.4% 61.0%
Kerry Margin
95% 1.91 2.01 2.11 2.21 2.31
93% 1.77 1.86 1.96 2.06 2.16
91% 1.62 1.72 1.82 1.91 2.01
89% 1.47 1.57 1.67 1.77 1.86
87% 1.32 1.42 1.52 1.62 1.72
_________________________________________________________________
Sensitivity Analysis
105 Kerry Vote Share Scenarios
Kerry vote share scenario ranges:
of Bush: 9-11%
of Gore:86-94%
of New: 30-70%
Implausible scenarios:
Kerry share equal to Recorded vote:58.4%
Plausible scenarios:
Kerry share equal to Exit Poll:64.1%
Kerry Share of New Voters
Implausible Plausible
Gore 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%
Kerry share of Bush:11%
94.0% 58.1% 59.8% 61.4% 63.1% 64.8% plausible
92.0% 57.1% 58.8% 60.4% 62.1% 63.8%
90.0% 56.1% 57.8% 59.4% 61.1% 62.8%
88.0% 55.1% 56.8% 58.4% 60.1% 61.8% implausible
86.0% 54.1% 55.7% 57.4% 59.1% 60.8%
85.0% 53.1% 54.7% 56.4% 58.1% 59.8%
84.0% 52.1% 53.7% 55.4% 57.1% 58.8%
Kerry share of Bush:10%
94.0% 57.8% 59.5% 61.1% 62.8% 64.5% plausible
92.0% 56.8% 58.5% 60.1% 61.8% 63.5%
90.0% 55.8% 57.5% 59.1% 60.8% 62.5%
88.0% 54.8% 56.5% 58.1% 59.8% 61.5% implausible
86.0% 53.8% 55.5% 57.1% 58.8% 60.5%
85.0% 52.8% 54.5% 56.1% 57.8% 59.5%
84.0% 51.8% 53.5% 55.1% 56.8% 58.5%
Kerry share of Bush:9%
94.0% 57.5% 59.2% 60.8% 62.5% 64.2% plausible
92.0% 56.5% 58.2% 59.8% 61.5% 63.2%
90.0% 55.5% 57.2% 58.8% 60.5% 62.2%
88.0% 54.5% 56.2% 57.8% 59.5% 61.2% implausible
86.0% 53.5% 55.2% 56.8% 58.5% 60.2%
85.0% 52.5% 54.2% 55.8% 57.5% 59.2%
84.0% 51.5% 53.2% 54.8% 56.5% 58.2%
_________________________________________________________________
Connecticut
2000 recorded
Gore Bush Other Total
0.816 0.561 0.082 1.460
55.9% 38.4% 5.6%
2004 recorded
Kerry Bush Other Total
0.857 0.694 0.027 1.579
54.3% 44.0% 1.7%
2004 Exit Poll
62.2% 36.1% 1.7%
Kerry’s recorded margin was 160,000 votes.
The following scenarios indicate that his True margin was 400,000 votes.
Scenario I:
Implausible Shares of Gore, Bush and New (DNV) voters required to match the recorded vote
Kerry’s Final NEP vote shares had to be decreased to match the CT recorded vote.
This is logical and expected: Kerry's recorded 54.3% CT vote share far exceeded his 48.3% national share.
Therefore, Kerry’s CT vote shares were obviously higher than the corresponding NEP shares.
2000 2004 Required Vote Shares
Recorded Died Alive Voted Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - - - - 0.26 16.6% 52% 46% 2%
Gore 0.82 0.04 0.78 95% 0.73 46.5% 86% 14% 1%
Bush 0.56 0.03 0.51 95% 0.51 32.3% 8% 92% 0%
Other 0.08 0.00 0.08 95% 0.07 4.7% 65% 27% 8%
Total 1.46 0.07 1.39 1.32 1.58 100% 54.2% 44.6% 1.2%
Total 1.58 0.86 0.70 0.02
Scenario II:
Plausible Shares of Gore, Bush and New (DNV) voters required to match the exit poll
Conclusion: Kerry’s recorded 160k margin (Kerry 54.3-Bush 44.0%) was too low.
Kerry won by approximately 62-37%, a 400k vote margin.
2000 2004 Required Vote Shares
Recorded Died Alive Voted Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - - - - 0.26 16.6% 66% 32% 2%
Gore 0.82 0.04 0.78 95% 0.73 46.5% 94% 5% 1%
Bush 0.56 0.03 0.51 95% 0.51 32.3% 12% 88% 0%
Other 0.08 0.00 0.08 95% 0.07 4.7% 75% 17% 8%
Total 1.46 0.07 1.39 1.32 1.58 100% 62.0% 36.8% 1.2%
Total 1.58 0.98 0.58 0.02