TruthIsAll
11-09-2008, 04:18 AM
2008 Election Model Predicted RECORDED Electoral(365)and popular vote (53%)- but NOT the TRUE VOTE
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Final2008ElectionModel365EV.htm
TruthIsAll
Nov. 11, 2008
The Final 2008 Election Model (EM) exactly matched the Recorded electoral and popular vote - but not the True Vote. It projected that Obama would receive 365.3 expected electoral votes and a 53.1- 44.9% True Vote share. Obama won by 365-173 EV and a 65.3 - 57.4m recorded vote margin (53 - 46%). The expected EV is the average of a 5000 trial Monte Carlo simulation using projections based on the final state polls.
The EM projected that Obama would win the True Vote by 75.9-64.2m out of 143m total votes cast and capture 60% of undecided voters (the base case UVA scenario). The 75% UVA scenario gave him 53.9% (or 55.0% of the two-party vote) and 379.5 EV.
The 2008 Election Calculator (EC)is a complementary True Vote model based on an estimated, feasible 2004 returning voter mix and vote shares. It projected that Obama would win the True Vote with a 54.5-44.4% share (78.3-63.8m). It also projected that he would win the Recorded Vote with a 52.2-46.8% share (72.8-65.2m). The Recorded share assumed 3% of votes cast would be uncounted and 3% switched to McCain.
But the landslide was denied. Obama did better than the EM and recorded vote indicates. Only 124m votes have been counted so far (122m were recorded in 2004 and 105m in 2000). Democrats traditionally win 75% of uncounted votes.
Right wing pundits are claiming that Obama does not have a mandate. Since when is an 8 million margin not a mandate? But Obama won by more than 8 million votes. The True Vote will only be revealed if there is a real investigation by congress and/or the media.
The EM also projected a scenario in which that 3% of total votes cast would be uncounted and 3% switched to McCain. The projected recorded vote was 72.7-63.2m (52.4-45.5%).
The 2008 Election Calculator (EC) is a complementary model that is based on an estimated, feasible 2004 returning voter mix and estimated vote shares. It projected Obama to win by 54.5-44.4%.
2004/2008 Election Model and Election Calculator
(input assumptions and base case scenario results)
2008
EM - Obama 53.1%; 365.3 expected EV; 60% UVA.
EC - Obama 54.5%; feasible mix of returning 2004 voters and 12:22am NEP vote shares.
2004
EM - Kerry 51.3%; 337 expected EV; 75% UVA; unadjusted state aggregate exit poll: 52-47%.
EC - Kerry 53.2%; feasible mix of returning 2000 voters and 12:22am NEP vote shares.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Final2008ElectionModel365EV.htm
TruthIsAll
Nov. 11, 2008
The Final 2008 Election Model (EM) exactly matched the Recorded electoral and popular vote - but not the True Vote. It projected that Obama would receive 365.3 expected electoral votes and a 53.1- 44.9% True Vote share. Obama won by 365-173 EV and a 65.3 - 57.4m recorded vote margin (53 - 46%). The expected EV is the average of a 5000 trial Monte Carlo simulation using projections based on the final state polls.
The EM projected that Obama would win the True Vote by 75.9-64.2m out of 143m total votes cast and capture 60% of undecided voters (the base case UVA scenario). The 75% UVA scenario gave him 53.9% (or 55.0% of the two-party vote) and 379.5 EV.
The 2008 Election Calculator (EC)is a complementary True Vote model based on an estimated, feasible 2004 returning voter mix and vote shares. It projected that Obama would win the True Vote with a 54.5-44.4% share (78.3-63.8m). It also projected that he would win the Recorded Vote with a 52.2-46.8% share (72.8-65.2m). The Recorded share assumed 3% of votes cast would be uncounted and 3% switched to McCain.
But the landslide was denied. Obama did better than the EM and recorded vote indicates. Only 124m votes have been counted so far (122m were recorded in 2004 and 105m in 2000). Democrats traditionally win 75% of uncounted votes.
Right wing pundits are claiming that Obama does not have a mandate. Since when is an 8 million margin not a mandate? But Obama won by more than 8 million votes. The True Vote will only be revealed if there is a real investigation by congress and/or the media.
The EM also projected a scenario in which that 3% of total votes cast would be uncounted and 3% switched to McCain. The projected recorded vote was 72.7-63.2m (52.4-45.5%).
The 2008 Election Calculator (EC) is a complementary model that is based on an estimated, feasible 2004 returning voter mix and estimated vote shares. It projected Obama to win by 54.5-44.4%.
2004/2008 Election Model and Election Calculator
(input assumptions and base case scenario results)
2008
EM - Obama 53.1%; 365.3 expected EV; 60% UVA.
EC - Obama 54.5%; feasible mix of returning 2004 voters and 12:22am NEP vote shares.
2004
EM - Kerry 51.3%; 337 expected EV; 75% UVA; unadjusted state aggregate exit poll: 52-47%.
EC - Kerry 53.2%; feasible mix of returning 2000 voters and 12:22am NEP vote shares.