TruthIsAll
08-13-2008, 04:05 PM
The New York Urban Legend: a County Vote Change analysis
TruthIsAll
Some still maintain that there is no evidence to support the “Urban Legend”: Bush stole the election and padded his vote in heavily populated urban and suburban areas with implausible gains in vote shares. This analysis of changes in recorded votes in 62 NY counties shows that massive Bush vote increases in Democratic urban areas contrasted with relatively insignificant vote changes in Republican small towns and rural areas.
To put the analysis in context, we need to be aware of the following astounding anomalies:
2000 County Data
-Includes only the initial 6.27m of 6.82m total recorded votes.
-Gore won the initial 6.27m by 59.8-35.4% and the final 552,000 by 65.4-32.7 %.
But 552,000 is a full 8.8% of the total recorded vote – quite a large sample.
A typical state exit poll samples just 1500-2500 voters.
2004 County Data
-Includes only the initial 6.89m (93%) of 7.39m recorded votes.
-Kerry won the initial 6.89m votes by 57.9-40.6% and the final 499,000 votes by 64.3-33.6 %.
So how does one explain the difference between the initial 92% and the final 8% of the votes?
Is it just a coincidence that the final vote shares were virtually identical to the unadjusted exit polls?
The 62 NY counties were ranked by Bush’s increase in margin, vote percentage and net votes.
Bush’s best percentage gains were in the 10 largest NY counties.
The three largest NY counties (Brooklyn, Suffolk and Nassau) ranked 1-2-3 in Bush margin gain.
Bush Increase: Votes Margin
Brooklyn 75% 44k (14.4%)
Suffolk 35% 60k (11.2%)
Nassau 30% 71k (13.3%)
Six of the largest 10 counties were among the Top 10 in:
Bush vote percentage gain
Bush net vote gain
In the largest 10 counties:
Kerry gained 207,000 votes (up 8%)
Bush gained 390,000 votes (up 32%)
His margin increased by 7.7%
In the other 52 counties:
Kerry gained 40,000 votes (up 4%)
Bush gained 183,000 votes (up 18%)
His margin increased by 6.4%
NY Recorded votes by county in 2000 and 2004, along with absolute and percentage changes and rankings are shown here:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/NY2004UrbanLegend62Counties.htm
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/TIACountyVoteDatabase_24111_image001.png
Bush NY County Urban Legend Rankings
62 Counties
Bush Increase in
Top 10 Margin VotePct NetVotes
1 Brooklyn St Island Brooklyn Nassau
2 Suffolk Rockland Bronx Suffolk
3 Nassau Brooklyn Jefferson Brooklyn
4 Manhattan Nassau StIsland StIsland
5 Queens Montgomery Queens Queens
6 Erie Suffolk Suffolk Rockland
7 Westchester Oneida Westches Erie
8 Monroe Herkimer Greene Monroe
9 Bronx Genesee Nassau Orange
10 Onondaga Putnam Rockland Oneida
Top 10 NY Counties
(votes in thousands)
Total Votes 2000 2004
County Precincts Total Gore Bush Nader Gore Bush Nader Total Kerry Bush Nader Kerry Bush Nader
Database 15553 6270 3747 2222 300 59.8% 35.4% 4.8% 6892 3993 2796 104 57.9% 40.6% 1.5%
Recorded 15553 6822 4108 2403 311 60.2% 35.2% 4.6% 7391 4314 2963 114 58.4% 40.1% 1.5%
Difference 0 552 361 181 11 65.4% 32.7% 1.9% 499 321 167 10 64.3% 33.6% 2.1%
Brooklyn 1888 557 445 89 22 80% 16% 4% 630 469 157 5.2 74% 25% 0.8%
Suffolk 1006 536 285 224 27 53% 42% 5% 618 303 302 13.3 49% 49% 2.1%
Nassau 1070 554 319 214 21 58% 39% 4% 597 312 279 6 52% 47% 1.0%
Manhatn 1100 522 410 79 33 79% 15% 6% 572 469 95 8 82% 17% 1.4%
Queens 1470 512 380 115 17 74% 23% 3% 559 398 157 4.7 71% 28% 0.8%
Erie 1007 384 218 143 23 57% 37% 6% 411 231 171 9 56% 42% 2.2%
Westch 948 306 179 115 13 58% 37% 4% 377 218 153 5.5 58% 41% 1.5%
Monroe 792 300 153 133 15 51% 44% 5% 330 166 159 5.2 50% 48% 1.6%
Bronx 912 279 240 33 6 86% 12% 2% 318 263 53 2 83% 17% 0.6%
Onondaga 485 190 102 78 10 54% 41% 5% 199 107 88 3.5 54% 44% 1.8%
TruthIsAll
Some still maintain that there is no evidence to support the “Urban Legend”: Bush stole the election and padded his vote in heavily populated urban and suburban areas with implausible gains in vote shares. This analysis of changes in recorded votes in 62 NY counties shows that massive Bush vote increases in Democratic urban areas contrasted with relatively insignificant vote changes in Republican small towns and rural areas.
To put the analysis in context, we need to be aware of the following astounding anomalies:
2000 County Data
-Includes only the initial 6.27m of 6.82m total recorded votes.
-Gore won the initial 6.27m by 59.8-35.4% and the final 552,000 by 65.4-32.7 %.
But 552,000 is a full 8.8% of the total recorded vote – quite a large sample.
A typical state exit poll samples just 1500-2500 voters.
2004 County Data
-Includes only the initial 6.89m (93%) of 7.39m recorded votes.
-Kerry won the initial 6.89m votes by 57.9-40.6% and the final 499,000 votes by 64.3-33.6 %.
So how does one explain the difference between the initial 92% and the final 8% of the votes?
Is it just a coincidence that the final vote shares were virtually identical to the unadjusted exit polls?
The 62 NY counties were ranked by Bush’s increase in margin, vote percentage and net votes.
Bush’s best percentage gains were in the 10 largest NY counties.
The three largest NY counties (Brooklyn, Suffolk and Nassau) ranked 1-2-3 in Bush margin gain.
Bush Increase: Votes Margin
Brooklyn 75% 44k (14.4%)
Suffolk 35% 60k (11.2%)
Nassau 30% 71k (13.3%)
Six of the largest 10 counties were among the Top 10 in:
Bush vote percentage gain
Bush net vote gain
In the largest 10 counties:
Kerry gained 207,000 votes (up 8%)
Bush gained 390,000 votes (up 32%)
His margin increased by 7.7%
In the other 52 counties:
Kerry gained 40,000 votes (up 4%)
Bush gained 183,000 votes (up 18%)
His margin increased by 6.4%
NY Recorded votes by county in 2000 and 2004, along with absolute and percentage changes and rankings are shown here:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/NY2004UrbanLegend62Counties.htm
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/TIACountyVoteDatabase_24111_image001.png
Bush NY County Urban Legend Rankings
62 Counties
Bush Increase in
Top 10 Margin VotePct NetVotes
1 Brooklyn St Island Brooklyn Nassau
2 Suffolk Rockland Bronx Suffolk
3 Nassau Brooklyn Jefferson Brooklyn
4 Manhattan Nassau StIsland StIsland
5 Queens Montgomery Queens Queens
6 Erie Suffolk Suffolk Rockland
7 Westchester Oneida Westches Erie
8 Monroe Herkimer Greene Monroe
9 Bronx Genesee Nassau Orange
10 Onondaga Putnam Rockland Oneida
Top 10 NY Counties
(votes in thousands)
Total Votes 2000 2004
County Precincts Total Gore Bush Nader Gore Bush Nader Total Kerry Bush Nader Kerry Bush Nader
Database 15553 6270 3747 2222 300 59.8% 35.4% 4.8% 6892 3993 2796 104 57.9% 40.6% 1.5%
Recorded 15553 6822 4108 2403 311 60.2% 35.2% 4.6% 7391 4314 2963 114 58.4% 40.1% 1.5%
Difference 0 552 361 181 11 65.4% 32.7% 1.9% 499 321 167 10 64.3% 33.6% 2.1%
Brooklyn 1888 557 445 89 22 80% 16% 4% 630 469 157 5.2 74% 25% 0.8%
Suffolk 1006 536 285 224 27 53% 42% 5% 618 303 302 13.3 49% 49% 2.1%
Nassau 1070 554 319 214 21 58% 39% 4% 597 312 279 6 52% 47% 1.0%
Manhatn 1100 522 410 79 33 79% 15% 6% 572 469 95 8 82% 17% 1.4%
Queens 1470 512 380 115 17 74% 23% 3% 559 398 157 4.7 71% 28% 0.8%
Erie 1007 384 218 143 23 57% 37% 6% 411 231 171 9 56% 42% 2.2%
Westch 948 306 179 115 13 58% 37% 4% 377 218 153 5.5 58% 41% 1.5%
Monroe 792 300 153 133 15 51% 44% 5% 330 166 159 5.2 50% 48% 1.6%
Bronx 912 279 240 33 6 86% 12% 2% 318 263 53 2 83% 17% 0.6%
Onondaga 485 190 102 78 10 54% 41% 5% 199 107 88 3.5 54% 44% 1.8%