TruthIsAll
01-25-2009, 11:45 PM
The National Exit Poll must match the official vote count - come hell or high water
TruthIsAll
Jan. 3, 2009
Assume you had the full set of the preliminary National Exit Poll results that
showed Obama winning with a 57.8% vote share. As you suspected, more Kerry voters
returned than did Bush voters. The results differ sharply from the official vote
count that has Obama winning 52.34%. But the National Exit Poll must match the
official vote count - come hell or high water. It’s standard operating procedure:
pollsters alter exit poll data to be the same as the election results. How would you
go about it?
2008 National Exit Poll (unadjusted)
There are two possibilities: you can adjust the returning voter mix and/or the
individual vote shares.
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 19.2 72.0% 26.0% 2% 13.79 4.98 0.38
Kerry 42.9% 52.0 89.8% 8.2% 2% 46.66 4.29 1.04
Bush 40.4% 49.0 18.2% 80.8% 1% 8.93 39.61 0.49
Other 0.85% 1.0 66.0% 24.0% 10% 0.68 0.25 0.10
Total 100% 121.21 57.80% 40.53% 1.66% 70.06 49.12 2.02
You load the Excel Solver add-in program. It will determine the returning voter mix
that will force the cross tab to match the recorded vote share - or at least get
very close to it. It will find the required mix using a sophisticated goal-seeking
algorithm. It’s just trial and error on steroids.
Solver needs the ranges for the return voter percentage mix and the corresponding
vote shares to adjust until it matches the target (recorded) Obama vote share. It
also needs to know the numerical constraints; the mix and share percentages must all
be greater than zero and sum to 100%.
Now that Solver knows the target vote share and the range of percentages to adjust
subject to the constraints, it can begin the search for the required mix and vote
shares. Within seconds, it indicates that it has found the values needed to match
the recorded 52.34% share.
2008 National Exit Poll (matched to the recorded vote)
1. Target the Obama vote share at 52.34%
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 19.2 71.0% 27.0% 2% 13.61 5.17 0.38
Kerry 38.5% 46.6 87.1% 10.9% 2% 40.62 5.08 0.93
Bush 44.9% 54.4 15.7% 83.3% 1% 8.54 45.30 0.54
Other 0.85% 1.0 66.0% 24.0% 10% 0.68 0.25 0.10
Total 100% 121.21 52.34% 46.03% 1.62% 63.44 55.79 1.96
Solver has determined that to match the recorded vote, the returning voter mix from
the initial exit poll must be radically adjusted: an increase of 5.4 million more
Bush voters and corresponding decrease in Kerry voters.
Solver also reduced the Obama share of new voters (1%), returning Kerry voters
(2.8%) and returning Bush voters (2.5%).
Since the exit poll margin of error is 1.5%, the Obama shares of Kerry and Bush
voters must be re-adjusted to fall within the MoE of the original poll results.
2. Adjust the Obama share of Kerry voters to 89% and Bush voters to 17%
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 19.2 71% 27% 2% 13.61 5.17 0.38
Kerry 36.7% 44.4 89% 9% 2% 39.54 4.00 0.89
Bush 46.7% 56.6 17% 82% 1% 9.62 46.40 0.57
Other 0.85% 1.0 66% 24% 10% 0.68 0.25 0.10
Total 100% 121.21 52.34% 46.05% 1.60% 63.44 55.82 1.94
The spread between returning Kerry and Bush voters has widened from 6.4% to 10.0%
(7.8m to 12.2m votes).
But 19.2m new voters is too high (need to conform to pre-election LV polls)
Decrease the percentage of new voters to 13.0%.
Increase returning third-party voters to 4.0% of 121m (4.8m).
In 2004, there were only 1.2m third-party voters.
Third-party voters can not exceed 0.85%.
Even though 4% impossible, no one will notice.
Target Obama again at 52.34%
3. Decrease new voters to 13%; increase returning third-party voters to 4%
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 13.00% 15.8 71% 27% 2% 11.19 4.25 0.32
Kerry 36.62% 44.4 89% 9% 2% 39.50 3.99 0.89
Bush 46.38% 56.2 17% 82% 1% 9.56 46.10 0.56
Other 4.00% 4.8 66% 24% 10% 3.20 1.16 0.48
Total 100% 121.21 52.34% 45.79% 1.86% 63.44 55.51 2.25
Done. But…10.16 million late votes have been recorded since Election Day; the vote
count is 131.37 million. Obama has won 59% of the late votes, increasing his vote
share to 52.87%. Recalculate the mix.
4. The updated Final NEP (12/25/08):
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 13.00% 17.1 71% 27% 2% 12.13 4.61 0.34
Kerry 37.34% 49.1 89% 9% 2% 43.66 4.42 0.98
Bush 45.66% 60.0 17% 82% 1% 10.20 49.19 0.60
Other 4.00% 5.3 66% 24% 10% 3.47 1.26 0.53
Total 100% 131.37 52.87% 45.27% 1.86% 69.46 59.47 2.45
The Final is not feasible. The returning voter mix required to match
the recorded vote is mathematically impossible.
5. Calculate the returning voter mix is based on the recorded 2004 vote.
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.85% 20.8 71% 27% 2% 14.79 5.62 0.42
Kerry 40.40% 53.1 89% 9% 2% 47.24 4.78 1.06
Bush 42.90% 56.4 17% 82% 1% 9.58 46.21 0.56
Other 0.85% 1.1 66% 24% 10% 0.74 0.27 0.11
Total 100% 131.37 55.07% 43.30% 1.64% 72.34 56.88 2.15
But it's not plausible. It assumes zero fraud in 2004.
6. Calculate a returning voter mix based on the unadjusted 2004 state
exit poll aggregate to get the True Vote:
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.85% 20.8 71% 27% 2% 14.79 5.62 0.42
Kerry 44.00% 57.8 89% 9% 2% 51.44 5.20 1.16
Bush 39.30% 51.6 17% 82% 1% 8.78 42.34 0.52
Other 0.85% 1.1 66% 24% 10% 0.74 0.27 0.11
Total 100% 131.37 57.66% 40.67% 1.68% 75.75 53.42 2.20
To summarize:
-The Final NEP indicates that returning 2004 third-party voters comprised 4% (5.3m)
of the 131.37 million who voted in 2008.
But there were only 1.2m third-party voters in 2004.
-Bush won by an official 62-59 million votes.
But returning Bush voters comprised 46% (60.0m) and Kerry voters just 37%
(49.1m)– a 10.9 million spread.
- According to voter mortality tables, approximately 3 million Bush voters died
prior to the 2008 election. But even assuming 100% Bush voter turnout in 2008, at
most 59 million could have voted. Realistically, approximately 95% (56m) voted.
The Final NEP overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 4 million.
But that’s conservative; it assumes zero fraud on 2004.
-According to the unadjusted 2004 state exit poll aggregate, Kerry won by 52-47%
(63.6-57.5m). If the aggregate reflected the True vote, then the 2008 NEP overstated
the number of returning Bush voters by 9 million.
The Final National Exit Poll anomalies should have been reported by the media.
But the NY Times, CNN, ABC, the Washington Post commissioned the NEP. The
impossible results will remain official. Otherwise, the public would know that
Obama really won by more than 20 million votes. That’s too big a mandate; he would
be compelled to enact a progressive agenda. More important, the Corporate Media does
not want the public to know that Bushco stole both elections and that the same Final
NEP anomalies existed in 2004.
TruthIsAll
Jan. 3, 2009
Assume you had the full set of the preliminary National Exit Poll results that
showed Obama winning with a 57.8% vote share. As you suspected, more Kerry voters
returned than did Bush voters. The results differ sharply from the official vote
count that has Obama winning 52.34%. But the National Exit Poll must match the
official vote count - come hell or high water. It’s standard operating procedure:
pollsters alter exit poll data to be the same as the election results. How would you
go about it?
2008 National Exit Poll (unadjusted)
There are two possibilities: you can adjust the returning voter mix and/or the
individual vote shares.
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 19.2 72.0% 26.0% 2% 13.79 4.98 0.38
Kerry 42.9% 52.0 89.8% 8.2% 2% 46.66 4.29 1.04
Bush 40.4% 49.0 18.2% 80.8% 1% 8.93 39.61 0.49
Other 0.85% 1.0 66.0% 24.0% 10% 0.68 0.25 0.10
Total 100% 121.21 57.80% 40.53% 1.66% 70.06 49.12 2.02
You load the Excel Solver add-in program. It will determine the returning voter mix
that will force the cross tab to match the recorded vote share - or at least get
very close to it. It will find the required mix using a sophisticated goal-seeking
algorithm. It’s just trial and error on steroids.
Solver needs the ranges for the return voter percentage mix and the corresponding
vote shares to adjust until it matches the target (recorded) Obama vote share. It
also needs to know the numerical constraints; the mix and share percentages must all
be greater than zero and sum to 100%.
Now that Solver knows the target vote share and the range of percentages to adjust
subject to the constraints, it can begin the search for the required mix and vote
shares. Within seconds, it indicates that it has found the values needed to match
the recorded 52.34% share.
2008 National Exit Poll (matched to the recorded vote)
1. Target the Obama vote share at 52.34%
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 19.2 71.0% 27.0% 2% 13.61 5.17 0.38
Kerry 38.5% 46.6 87.1% 10.9% 2% 40.62 5.08 0.93
Bush 44.9% 54.4 15.7% 83.3% 1% 8.54 45.30 0.54
Other 0.85% 1.0 66.0% 24.0% 10% 0.68 0.25 0.10
Total 100% 121.21 52.34% 46.03% 1.62% 63.44 55.79 1.96
Solver has determined that to match the recorded vote, the returning voter mix from
the initial exit poll must be radically adjusted: an increase of 5.4 million more
Bush voters and corresponding decrease in Kerry voters.
Solver also reduced the Obama share of new voters (1%), returning Kerry voters
(2.8%) and returning Bush voters (2.5%).
Since the exit poll margin of error is 1.5%, the Obama shares of Kerry and Bush
voters must be re-adjusted to fall within the MoE of the original poll results.
2. Adjust the Obama share of Kerry voters to 89% and Bush voters to 17%
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 19.2 71% 27% 2% 13.61 5.17 0.38
Kerry 36.7% 44.4 89% 9% 2% 39.54 4.00 0.89
Bush 46.7% 56.6 17% 82% 1% 9.62 46.40 0.57
Other 0.85% 1.0 66% 24% 10% 0.68 0.25 0.10
Total 100% 121.21 52.34% 46.05% 1.60% 63.44 55.82 1.94
The spread between returning Kerry and Bush voters has widened from 6.4% to 10.0%
(7.8m to 12.2m votes).
But 19.2m new voters is too high (need to conform to pre-election LV polls)
Decrease the percentage of new voters to 13.0%.
Increase returning third-party voters to 4.0% of 121m (4.8m).
In 2004, there were only 1.2m third-party voters.
Third-party voters can not exceed 0.85%.
Even though 4% impossible, no one will notice.
Target Obama again at 52.34%
3. Decrease new voters to 13%; increase returning third-party voters to 4%
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 13.00% 15.8 71% 27% 2% 11.19 4.25 0.32
Kerry 36.62% 44.4 89% 9% 2% 39.50 3.99 0.89
Bush 46.38% 56.2 17% 82% 1% 9.56 46.10 0.56
Other 4.00% 4.8 66% 24% 10% 3.20 1.16 0.48
Total 100% 121.21 52.34% 45.79% 1.86% 63.44 55.51 2.25
Done. But…10.16 million late votes have been recorded since Election Day; the vote
count is 131.37 million. Obama has won 59% of the late votes, increasing his vote
share to 52.87%. Recalculate the mix.
4. The updated Final NEP (12/25/08):
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 13.00% 17.1 71% 27% 2% 12.13 4.61 0.34
Kerry 37.34% 49.1 89% 9% 2% 43.66 4.42 0.98
Bush 45.66% 60.0 17% 82% 1% 10.20 49.19 0.60
Other 4.00% 5.3 66% 24% 10% 3.47 1.26 0.53
Total 100% 131.37 52.87% 45.27% 1.86% 69.46 59.47 2.45
The Final is not feasible. The returning voter mix required to match
the recorded vote is mathematically impossible.
5. Calculate the returning voter mix is based on the recorded 2004 vote.
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.85% 20.8 71% 27% 2% 14.79 5.62 0.42
Kerry 40.40% 53.1 89% 9% 2% 47.24 4.78 1.06
Bush 42.90% 56.4 17% 82% 1% 9.58 46.21 0.56
Other 0.85% 1.1 66% 24% 10% 0.74 0.27 0.11
Total 100% 131.37 55.07% 43.30% 1.64% 72.34 56.88 2.15
But it's not plausible. It assumes zero fraud in 2004.
6. Calculate a returning voter mix based on the unadjusted 2004 state
exit poll aggregate to get the True Vote:
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.85% 20.8 71% 27% 2% 14.79 5.62 0.42
Kerry 44.00% 57.8 89% 9% 2% 51.44 5.20 1.16
Bush 39.30% 51.6 17% 82% 1% 8.78 42.34 0.52
Other 0.85% 1.1 66% 24% 10% 0.74 0.27 0.11
Total 100% 131.37 57.66% 40.67% 1.68% 75.75 53.42 2.20
To summarize:
-The Final NEP indicates that returning 2004 third-party voters comprised 4% (5.3m)
of the 131.37 million who voted in 2008.
But there were only 1.2m third-party voters in 2004.
-Bush won by an official 62-59 million votes.
But returning Bush voters comprised 46% (60.0m) and Kerry voters just 37%
(49.1m)– a 10.9 million spread.
- According to voter mortality tables, approximately 3 million Bush voters died
prior to the 2008 election. But even assuming 100% Bush voter turnout in 2008, at
most 59 million could have voted. Realistically, approximately 95% (56m) voted.
The Final NEP overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 4 million.
But that’s conservative; it assumes zero fraud on 2004.
-According to the unadjusted 2004 state exit poll aggregate, Kerry won by 52-47%
(63.6-57.5m). If the aggregate reflected the True vote, then the 2008 NEP overstated
the number of returning Bush voters by 9 million.
The Final National Exit Poll anomalies should have been reported by the media.
But the NY Times, CNN, ABC, the Washington Post commissioned the NEP. The
impossible results will remain official. Otherwise, the public would know that
Obama really won by more than 20 million votes. That’s too big a mandate; he would
be compelled to enact a progressive agenda. More important, the Corporate Media does
not want the public to know that Bushco stole both elections and that the same Final
NEP anomalies existed in 2004.