TruthIsAll
10-14-2008, 11:00 AM
2008 Election Model
A Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
Updated: Oct. 14
TruthIsAll
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm
The 2008 Election Model assumes that current polls reflect the will of the electorate and a fraud-free election is held today. Obama has a solid margin in virtually all of the battleground states. Obama won all 5000 Monte Carlo simulation election trials with an expected (average) 367-171 electoral vote margin. His median EV was 371; the mode (most frequent trial result) was 372. He has a 99% probability of winning at least 330 electoral votes.
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The DeSart and Holbrook Forecast Model results are similar to the Election Model
http://research.uvsc.edu/DeSart/forecasting/
UPDATE - The latest run (Oct. 16) of our October Rolling forecast now predicts that Barack Obama will win the election with 52.85%* of the national 2-party popular vote to to John McCain's 47.15%. The model also predicts that Obama will win the presidency with 354 electoral votes to McCain's 184. Based on these results, there is a 99.99% probability that Barack Obama will win the election.
A google search of electoral vote forecasting models:
http://www.google.com/search?num=100&hl=en&rls=GGLD%2CGGLD%3A2003-52%2CGGLD%3Aen&q=electoral+vote+forecasting+models
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View the State vs. National vote share projection Trend.
National polls are current; state poll lag by a week or more. Obama’s projected aggregate state 2-party vote (53.64%) is approaching the national average (54.56%) as the time lag between the polls decreases.
The three most critical states weighted by the electoral vote and poll spread are OH (20.9), NC (20.90) and FL (14.3). The values represent the optimal percentage of campaign resources to be allocated to these states. The percentages change when the polls are updated.
For McCain to win, he needs to switch 8% (1 in 12) Obama votes.
National Model
Obama McCain Calculation method (base case)
Tracking Poll Average
50.00 42.40 Rasmussen, Gallup, Research 2000, Hotline, Zogby
Projected Vote (2-party)
54.56 45.44 Poll average+ 60% of undecided (UVA) to Obama
Actual Projected
52.16 43.84 4% to third parties
State Model
Aggregate Poll Share
50.09 43.99 Weighted average of state polls based on 2004 recorded vote
Projected Vote (2-party)
53.64 46.36 Poll aggregate+ 60% of undecided (UVA) to Obama
Actual Projected
51.24 44.76 4% to third parties
Electoral Vote
Poll......... 372 166 Unadjusted Poll Leader
Projected....... 372 166 Poll + 60% undecided (UVA) to Obama
Expected value 367.1 170.9 EV = ∑ (Projection win probability (i) * EV(i)), i=1,51 states
Monte Carlo simulation (60% UVA to Obama, 5000 election trials)
Mean 367.2 170.8 Average Expected EV
Median 371 167 Middle value
Mode 372 166 Most frequent EV
Maximum 417 121
Minimum 299 239
Obama Electoral Vote Win Probabilities
Minimum Electoral Vote 270 310 330 350 370 390 410
Winning Trials >Min EV 5000 4996 4953 4475 2546 179 5
Probability (EV > Min) 100.% 99.9% 99.1% 89.5% 50.9% 3.6% 0.10%
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2008 Election Calculator
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionCalculator.htm
In May 2008, the Calculator projected Obama to win the True Vote by 71-59m.
The model has been updated to include new information.
Obama is now projected to win by an 80-58 million vote landslide.
Of course, the assumption is that the election will be fraud-free
1) A 20%+ increase in new registered voters, the great majority of whom are Democratic.
2) A slight increase in the estimated Obama share of returning Bush voters.
3) An increase in third party vote share to 4%.
Oct 2008
2004 Estimated vote share
Turnout Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - 29.9 20.8% 59% 35% 6%
Kerry 95% 60.6 42.2% 92% 5% 3%
Bush 95% 51.6 35.9% 11% 86% 3%
Other 95% 1.6 1.1% 64% 11% 25%
Total 113.7 143.7 100% 55.7% 40.4% 3.9%
143.7 - 80.1 58.1 5.6
May-08
2004 Estimated vote share
Turnout Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - 17.2 13.1% 59% 40% 1%
Kerry 95% 60.5 46.2% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 95% 51.6 39.4% 11% 88% 1%
Other 95% 1.6 1.2% 70% 11% 19%
Total 113.7 130.9 100% 54.1% 44.7% 1.2%
130.9 - 70.8 58.5 1.6
If Obama wins just 9% of returning Bush voters and 90% of Kerry voters, he would win by 17.5m votes (54.2-41.6%).
If he wins just 55% of new voters and 90% of Kerry voters, he would win by 17.2m votes (54-42%).
The 1988-2004 Election Calculator was developed as a response to the Final 2004 National Exit Poll.
The Final was forced to match the recorded vote using impossible weights: 43% (52.6m) were Bush 2000 voters; 37% Gore voters.
But Bush only had 50.5m votes in 2000.
Approximately 2.5m died and another 2.5m did not return to vote.
Therefore, only 45.5m Bush 2000 voters could have returned to vote in 2004.
The Final NEP overstated the Bush vote by 7 million in order to match a corrupt miscounted vote.
The 2004 True Vote calculation assumed an estimated 100.1m returning 2000 voters.
100.1m = 110.8m Votes cast in 2000 less 5.4m voter mortality times 95% turnout.
Vote shares were based on the 12:22am National Exit Poll.
The model determined that Kerry won by 66.9-57.1 million.
Kerry did slightly better (53.2%) than the unadjusted state exit poll (52.0%) aggregate.
The results indicate that 5.4m votes (8.0% of Kerry’s total) were switched from Kerry to Bush.
2000 12:22am NEP Vote shares
Turnout Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - 25.6 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 49.7 39.5% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 46.6 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 95% 3.8 3.0% 64% 17% 19%
Total 100.1 125.7 100% 53.2% 45.4% 1.4%
Votes 125.7 66.9 57.1 1.7
Recorded 48.3% 50.7% 1.0%
Vote 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2
Unadj Exit Poll - 52.0% 47.0% 1.0%
Deviation from True - -1.2% 1.6% -0.4%
A Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
Updated: Oct. 14
TruthIsAll
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm
The 2008 Election Model assumes that current polls reflect the will of the electorate and a fraud-free election is held today. Obama has a solid margin in virtually all of the battleground states. Obama won all 5000 Monte Carlo simulation election trials with an expected (average) 367-171 electoral vote margin. His median EV was 371; the mode (most frequent trial result) was 372. He has a 99% probability of winning at least 330 electoral votes.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
The DeSart and Holbrook Forecast Model results are similar to the Election Model
http://research.uvsc.edu/DeSart/forecasting/
UPDATE - The latest run (Oct. 16) of our October Rolling forecast now predicts that Barack Obama will win the election with 52.85%* of the national 2-party popular vote to to John McCain's 47.15%. The model also predicts that Obama will win the presidency with 354 electoral votes to McCain's 184. Based on these results, there is a 99.99% probability that Barack Obama will win the election.
A google search of electoral vote forecasting models:
http://www.google.com/search?num=100&hl=en&rls=GGLD%2CGGLD%3A2003-52%2CGGLD%3Aen&q=electoral+vote+forecasting+models
-------------------------------------------------------------
View the State vs. National vote share projection Trend.
National polls are current; state poll lag by a week or more. Obama’s projected aggregate state 2-party vote (53.64%) is approaching the national average (54.56%) as the time lag between the polls decreases.
The three most critical states weighted by the electoral vote and poll spread are OH (20.9), NC (20.90) and FL (14.3). The values represent the optimal percentage of campaign resources to be allocated to these states. The percentages change when the polls are updated.
For McCain to win, he needs to switch 8% (1 in 12) Obama votes.
National Model
Obama McCain Calculation method (base case)
Tracking Poll Average
50.00 42.40 Rasmussen, Gallup, Research 2000, Hotline, Zogby
Projected Vote (2-party)
54.56 45.44 Poll average+ 60% of undecided (UVA) to Obama
Actual Projected
52.16 43.84 4% to third parties
State Model
Aggregate Poll Share
50.09 43.99 Weighted average of state polls based on 2004 recorded vote
Projected Vote (2-party)
53.64 46.36 Poll aggregate+ 60% of undecided (UVA) to Obama
Actual Projected
51.24 44.76 4% to third parties
Electoral Vote
Poll......... 372 166 Unadjusted Poll Leader
Projected....... 372 166 Poll + 60% undecided (UVA) to Obama
Expected value 367.1 170.9 EV = ∑ (Projection win probability (i) * EV(i)), i=1,51 states
Monte Carlo simulation (60% UVA to Obama, 5000 election trials)
Mean 367.2 170.8 Average Expected EV
Median 371 167 Middle value
Mode 372 166 Most frequent EV
Maximum 417 121
Minimum 299 239
Obama Electoral Vote Win Probabilities
Minimum Electoral Vote 270 310 330 350 370 390 410
Winning Trials >Min EV 5000 4996 4953 4475 2546 179 5
Probability (EV > Min) 100.% 99.9% 99.1% 89.5% 50.9% 3.6% 0.10%
_______________________________________________________________________
2008 Election Calculator
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionCalculator.htm
In May 2008, the Calculator projected Obama to win the True Vote by 71-59m.
The model has been updated to include new information.
Obama is now projected to win by an 80-58 million vote landslide.
Of course, the assumption is that the election will be fraud-free
1) A 20%+ increase in new registered voters, the great majority of whom are Democratic.
2) A slight increase in the estimated Obama share of returning Bush voters.
3) An increase in third party vote share to 4%.
Oct 2008
2004 Estimated vote share
Turnout Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - 29.9 20.8% 59% 35% 6%
Kerry 95% 60.6 42.2% 92% 5% 3%
Bush 95% 51.6 35.9% 11% 86% 3%
Other 95% 1.6 1.1% 64% 11% 25%
Total 113.7 143.7 100% 55.7% 40.4% 3.9%
143.7 - 80.1 58.1 5.6
May-08
2004 Estimated vote share
Turnout Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - 17.2 13.1% 59% 40% 1%
Kerry 95% 60.5 46.2% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 95% 51.6 39.4% 11% 88% 1%
Other 95% 1.6 1.2% 70% 11% 19%
Total 113.7 130.9 100% 54.1% 44.7% 1.2%
130.9 - 70.8 58.5 1.6
If Obama wins just 9% of returning Bush voters and 90% of Kerry voters, he would win by 17.5m votes (54.2-41.6%).
If he wins just 55% of new voters and 90% of Kerry voters, he would win by 17.2m votes (54-42%).
The 1988-2004 Election Calculator was developed as a response to the Final 2004 National Exit Poll.
The Final was forced to match the recorded vote using impossible weights: 43% (52.6m) were Bush 2000 voters; 37% Gore voters.
But Bush only had 50.5m votes in 2000.
Approximately 2.5m died and another 2.5m did not return to vote.
Therefore, only 45.5m Bush 2000 voters could have returned to vote in 2004.
The Final NEP overstated the Bush vote by 7 million in order to match a corrupt miscounted vote.
The 2004 True Vote calculation assumed an estimated 100.1m returning 2000 voters.
100.1m = 110.8m Votes cast in 2000 less 5.4m voter mortality times 95% turnout.
Vote shares were based on the 12:22am National Exit Poll.
The model determined that Kerry won by 66.9-57.1 million.
Kerry did slightly better (53.2%) than the unadjusted state exit poll (52.0%) aggregate.
The results indicate that 5.4m votes (8.0% of Kerry’s total) were switched from Kerry to Bush.
2000 12:22am NEP Vote shares
Turnout Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - 25.6 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 49.7 39.5% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 46.6 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 95% 3.8 3.0% 64% 17% 19%
Total 100.1 125.7 100% 53.2% 45.4% 1.4%
Votes 125.7 66.9 57.1 1.7
Recorded 48.3% 50.7% 1.0%
Vote 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2
Unadj Exit Poll - 52.0% 47.0% 1.0%
Deviation from True - -1.2% 1.6% -0.4%