2004 Uncounted and stuffed votes: a state by state analysis

The 2004 Vote Census indicates that 125.736 million votes were cast but only 122.295
million were recorded. Total votes cast are given for each state. The net uncounted
vote is the difference between total votes cast and recorded. The margin of error
for the net total of 3.441 million is 0.30%. The MoE ranges from 1% (California) to
2.6% (Mississippi). In most states, there were more votes cast than recorded
indicating that votes were uncounted. In the other states, there were more votes
recorded than cast indicating ballots were “stuffed”.

If the 3.441m difference was ONLY due to uncounted votes (i.e. there were zero
stuffed ballots) then the adjusted vote shares would be based on the uncounted vote
split. But we know that some states had an excess of recorded votes over votes cast,
so the 3.44m is a NET figure. If the NET was due to EITHER uncounted OR stuffed
ballots but not both (implausible), then there were 4.174 uncounted votes and 0.733m
stuffed ballots.

Net Uncounted votes = Uncounted votes - stuffed ballots
Net = 3.441m = 4.174m - 0.733m

But the 3.441m net figure could also be obtained from 5.174m uncounted and 1.733m
stuffed ballots (or any other pair):
Net = 3.441m = 5.174m - 1.733m

Millions of ballots are uncounted and stuffed in every election although the
percentage of total votes cast has declined from 10% in 1988 to under 3% in 2004.
This analysis does not include the effects of vote switching on DREs or at the
central tabulators. The Census can't survey in cyberspace.

Most states had more votes cast than recorded – indicating uncounted votes.
California had a net 387k uncounted, Illinois 398k, New York 307k. Texas had a
whopping 539k, South Carolina 281k, Arizona 226k, Alabama 177k, Massachusetts 173k,
New Mexico 81k.

About ten states had more votes recorded than cast – indicating stuffed ballots.
Florida had a net 238k stuffed, Ohio 143k, Tennessee 118k, Virginia 64k, Connecticut
55k, Colorado 33k, Michigan 21k, Alaska 20k.

In general, it appears that ballots were mostly uncounted in heavily Democratic
areas and stuffed in Republican areas. There is no way of knowing exactly how many
ballots were uncounted or stuffed in each state.

Using the Census information, we adjust the recorded state vote by adding back
uncounted and subtracting stuffed votes. The simplifying assumption is that each
state had either uncounted or stuffed ballots – not both.

The sensitivity analysis displays Kerry’s vote share and margin over a range of
uncounted and stuffed ballot assumptions – from an implausible 50% of the uncounted
vote to 90%. The stuffed ballot allocations range from 0% to 20%. In the base case
scenario, Kerry had 80% of the uncounted vote and Bush had 95% of stuffed ballots.
Kerry won the base case scenario by 148,000 votes and a 49.57% share, taking three
battleground states that were recorded for Bush: Nevada, New Mexico and Ohio. No
surprise there.

Note that the result does not include the effects of electronic vote-switching.
Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 52-47%. A true vote analysis indicates that
he actually had 53%. Uncounted and stuffed ballots accounted for about 25% of the
overall miscounted vote disparity; touch screens and central tabulators accounted
for the other 75%.

Consider this hypothetical scenario. Given that a state has 550k Bush and 450k Kerry
recorded votes, what if 100k ballots were uncounted and 100k stuffed for Bush? The
Census would pick up the uncounted 100k but not the stuffed 100k, indicating that
1000k votes were cast. Of the 100k uncounted votes, assume that 80k were for Kerry
and 20k for Bush. Including the uncounted votes, Bush has 570k and Kerry 530k. But
100k Bush votes are phantoms, therefore his true vote is 470k; Kerry actually won
the state by 60k. Since the recorded Bush margin is 100k, there is a 160k
discrepancy between the recorded vote and the true vote.

So what’s the point? It’s that we do the best we can with reasonable assumptions
applied to available data.



[code]

Recorded Adjusted Uncounted Stuffed Unctd (net)
Kerry 59027 48.27% 62,330 49.57% 80% 3,338 5% 36 3,303
Bush 62040 50.73% 62,182 49.45% 20% 835 95% 693 142
Other 1,227 1.00% 1,224 0.97% 0 0 0 0 -2

Total 122,294 100.0% 125,737 100.0% 100% 4,173 3.32% 730 3,443


Sensitivity Analysis
Kerry vote share and margin (before vote-switching)

Base case: Kerry had 80% of uncounted votes and 5% of stuffed ballots
Kerry vote share 49.57%; margin: 148,000
Bush recorded vote margin: 3.0 million

Kerry
Share of Kerry Share of Stuffed Ballots
Uncounted 20% 15% 10% 7% 5% 0%

Kerry vote share
90% 49.82% 49.85% 49.87% 49.89% 49.90% 49.93%
85% 49.65% 49.68% 49.71% 49.73% 49.74% 49.77%

80% 49.48% 49.51% 49.54% 49.56% 49.57% 49.60%

75% 49.32% 49.35% 49.38% 49.39% 49.41% 49.44%
70% 49.15% 49.18% 49.21% 49.23% 49.24% 49.27%
65% 48.99% 49.02% 49.05% 49.06% 49.07% 49.10%
60% 48.82% 48.85% 48.88% 48.90% 48.91% 48.94%
55% 48.66% 48.68% 48.71% 48.73% 48.74% 48.77%

Kerry Margin (in thousands)
90% 764 837 910 954 983 1056
85% 347 420 493 536 566 639

80% -71 2 75 119 148 221

75% -488 -415 -342 -298 -269 -196
70% -905 -832 -759 -716 -686 -613
65% -1323 -1250 -1177 -1133 -1104 -1031
60% -1740 -1667 -1594 -1550 -1521 -1448
55% -2157 -2084 -2011 -1967 -1938 -1865




Total Kerry Bush
Cast 125.736
Record 122.295 59.027 62.040
Diff 3.441 (net uncounted)

Unctd 4.174 3.340 0.835 (80% for Kerry)
Stuffed 0.733 0.037 0.697 (95% for Bush)
Net 3.441 3.303 0.138 (net uncounted)

Unctd % 3.32% 2.66% 0.66%
Adj 125.736 62.330 62.178
49.57% 49.45%


Sensitivity Analysis
Kerry vote share over a range of uncounted votes

Given:
95.0% of stuffed ballots for Bush
3.45 million net uncounted votes (gross uncounted - stuffed)

Uncounted
% Cast 2.74% 3.32% 5.00% 7.00%
(mil.) 3.45 4.17 6.29 8.80

Kerry
%Unctd Kerry vote share
80% 49.14% 49.57% 50.83% 52.33%
75% 49.00% 49.41% 50.58% 51.98%
70% 48.86% 49.24% 50.33% 51.63%
65% 48.73% 49.07% 50.08% 51.28%
60% 48.59% 48.91% 49.83% 50.93%
55% 48.45% 48.74% 49.58% 50.58%



* Flipped to Bush based on uncounted and stuffed votes


Unctd Unctd & Unctd Stuffed Adj Unctd Stuffed Adj
State Recorded Census Net Stuffed Kerry Kerry Kerry Bush Bush Bush
122,294 125,737 3,443 4,173 3,338 36 62,330 835 693 62,182

Alabama 1883 2060 177 177 141 0 835 35 0 1212
Alaska 313 293 -20 0 0 1 110 0 19 172
Arizona 2013 2239 226 226 181 0 1075 45 0 1150
Arkansas 1055 1140 85 85 68 0 538 17 0 590
California 12420 12807 387 387 310 0 7055 77 0 5587

Colorado 2130 2097 -33 0 0 2 1000 0 32 1070
Connecticut 1579 1524 -55 0 0 3 855 0 52 642
Delaware 375 385 10 10 8 0 208 2 0 174
D. C. 228 270 42 42 34 0 237 8 0 30
Florida 7610 7372 -238 0 0 12 3572 0 226 3739

Georgia 3302 3332 30 30 24 0 1390 6 0 1920
Hawaii 429 433 4 4 3 0 235 1 0 195
Idaho 598 585 -13 0 0 1 180 0 13 396
Illinois 5274 5672 398 398 318 0 3210 80 0 2425
Indiana 2468 2598 130 130 104 0 1073 26 0 1505

Iowa 1507 1522 15 15 12 0 754 3 0 755
Kansas 1188 1188 0 0 0 0 435 0 0 737
Kentucky 1796 1930 134 134 107 0 820 27 0 1096
Louisiana 1943 2067 124 124 99 0 919 25 0 1127
Maine 741 736 -5 0 0 0 397 0 5 326

Maryland 2387 2413 26 26 21 0 1356 5 0 1030
Massachusetts 2912 3085 173 173 138 0 1942 35 0 1106
Michigan 4839 4818 -21 0 0 1 2478 0 20 2294
Minnesota 2828 2887 59 59 47 0 1492 12 0 1358
Mississippi 1152 1263 111 111 89 0 547 22 0 707

Missouri 2731 2815 84 84 67 0 1326 17 0 1472
Montana 450 482 32 32 25 0 199 6 0 272
Nebraska 778 793 15 15 12 0 266 3 0 516
Nevada * 830 871 41 41 33 0 430 8 0 427
New Hampshire 678 677 -1 0 0 0 340 0 1 331

New Jersey 3612 3693 81 81 65 0 1976 16 0 1686
New Mexico * 756 837 81 81 65 0 435 16 0 393
New York 7391 7698 307 307 246 0 4560 61 0 3024
North Carolina 3501 3639 138 138 110 0 1636 28 0 1989
North Dakota 313 330 17 17 14 0 125 3 0 200

Ohio * 5628 5485 -143 0 0 7 2734 0 136 2724
Oklahoma 1464 1541 77 77 62 0 566 15 0 975
Oregon 1837 1924 87 87 70 0 1013 17 0 884
Pennsylvania 5770 5845 75 75 60 0 2998 15 0 2809
Rhode Island 437 467 30 30 24 0 284 6 0 175

South Carolina 1618 1899 281 281 225 0 887 56 0 994
South Dakota 388 378 -10 0 0 1 149 0 10 223
Tennessee 2437 2319 -118 0 0 6 1031 0 112 1272
Texas 7411 7950 539 539 431 0 3264 108 0 4635
Utah 928 1022 94 94 75 0 317 19 0 683

Vermont 312 316 4 4 3 0 187 1 0 122
Virginia 3198 3134 -64 0 0 3 1452 0 61 1656
Washington 2859 2851 -8 0 0 0 1510 0 8 1297
West Virginia 756 798 42 42 34 0 360 8 0 432
Wisconsin 2997 3010 13 13 10 0 1500 3 0 1481
Wyoming 243 247 4 4 3 0 74 1 0 168


Recorded Exit Poll Uncounted Adjusted Recorded Kerry
State Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush WPE Kerry Bush Margin Margin Gain
48.27% 50.73% 1.0% 51.92% 47.08% -7.38% 49.6% 49.5% 0.12% -2.5% 2.6%

Alabama 36.8% 62.5% 0.7% 41.8% 57.5% -10.0% 40.5% 58.8% -18.3% -26% 7.3%
Alaska 35.5% 61.1% 3.4% 40.2% 56.4% -9.3% 37.6% 58.8% -21.2% -26% 4.3%
Arizona 44.4% 54.9% 0.7% 44.5% 54.7% -0.3% 48.0% 51.3% -3.3% -10% 7.1%
Arkansas 44.5% 54.3% 1.1% 45.2% 53.7% -1.3% 47.2% 51.7% -4.6% -10% 5.2%
California 54.3% 44.4% 1.3% 60.1% 38.6% -11.6% 55.1% 43.6% 11.5% 10% 1.5%

Colorado 47.0% 51.7% 1.3% 50.1% 48.6% -6.1% 47.7% 51.0% -3.3% -5% 1.4%
Connecticut 54.3% 43.9% 1.7% 62.3% 35.9% -16.0% 56.1% 42.1% 14.0% 10% 3.6%
Delaware 53.3% 45.8% 0.9% 61.3% 37.8% -15.9% 54.0% 45.1% 8.9% 8% 1.3%
D. C. 89.2% 9.3% 1.5% 90.6% 7.9% -2.8% 87.7% 11.0% 76.7% 80% -3.1%
Florida 47.1% 52.1% 0.8% 51.0% 48.2% -7.8% 48.4% 50.7% -2.3% -5% 2.7%

Georgia 41.4% 58.0% 0.7% 42.0% 57.3% -1.3% 41.7% 57.6% -15.9% -17% 0.7%
Hawaii 54.0% 45.3% 0.7% 58.1% 41.2% -8.2% 54.2% 45.0% 9.2% 9% 0.5%
Idaho 30.3% 68.4% 1.4% 32.3% 66.4% -4.0% 30.8% 67.8% -36.9% -38% 1.2%
Illinois 54.8% 44.5% 0.7% 56.6% 42.7% -3.5% 56.6% 42.8% 13.8% 10% 3.5%
Indiana 39.3% 59.9% 0.8% 40.4% 58.8% -2.2% 41.3% 57.9% -16.6% -21% 4.0%

Iowa 49.2% 49.9% 0.9% 50.7% 48.4% -3.0% 49.5% 49.6% -0.1% -1% 0.6%
Kansas 36.6% 62.0% 1.4% 37.2% 61.5% -1.1% 36.6% 62.0% -25.4% -25% 0.0%
Kentucky 39.7% 59.6% 0.8% 39.9% 59.4% -0.4% 42.5% 56.8% -14.3% -20% 5.6%
Louisiana 42.2% 56.7% 1.1% 43.5% 55.4% -2.6% 44.5% 54.5% -10.0% -15% 4.5%
Maine 53.6% 44.6% 1.9% 55.6% 42.6% -4.0% 53.9% 44.3% 9.6% 9% 0.6%

Maryland 55.9% 42.9% 1.2% 59.6% 39.3% -7.3% 56.2% 42.7% 13.5% 13% 0.5%
Massachusetts 61.9% 36.8% 1.3% 65.8% 32.9% -7.7% 62.9% 35.8% 27.1% 25% 1.9%
Michigan 51.2% 47.8% 1.0% 54.4% 44.6% -6.4% 51.4% 47.6% 3.8% 3% 0.4%
Minnesota 51.1% 47.6% 1.3% 55.7% 43.0% -9.2% 51.7% 47.1% 4.6% 3% 1.1%
Mississippi 39.8% 59.4% 0.8% 49.0% 50.2% -18.5% 43.3% 56.0% -12.7% -20% 7.0%

Missouri 46.1% 53.3% 0.6% 49.0% 50.4% -5.8% 47.1% 52.3% -5.2% -7% 2.0%
Montana 38.6% 59.1% 2.4% 37.3% 60.4% 2.6% 41.3% 56.5% -15.2% -21% 5.3%
Nebraska 32.7% 65.9% 1.4% 37.0% 61.5% -8.7% 33.6% 65.0% -31.5% -33% 1.7%
Nevada * 47.9% 50.5% 1.7% 52.8% 45.5% -9.9% 49.4% 49.0% 0.4% -3% 3.0%
New Hampshire 50.2% 48.9% 0.9% 57.2% 41.9% -14.0% 50.3% 48.8% 1.5% 1% 0.1%

New Jersey 52.9% 46.2% 0.8% 57.5% 41.7% -9.1% 53.5% 45.7% 7.9% 7% 1.2%
New Mexico * 49.0% 49.8% 1.1% 53.0% 45.8% -8.0% 52.0% 47.0% 5.1% -1% 5.9%
New York 58.4% 40.1% 1.5% 64.5% 34.0% -12.2% 59.2% 39.3% 20.0% 18% 1.7%
North Carolina 43.6% 56.0% 0.4% 49.5% 50.1% -11.9% 45.0% 54.7% -9.7% -12% 2.7%
North Dakota 35.5% 62.9% 1.6% 34.6% 63.7% 1.7% 37.8% 60.6% -22.8% -27% 4.5%

Ohio * 48.7% 50.8% 0.5% 54.0% 45.5% -10.6% 49.8% 49.7% 0.2% -2% 2.3%
Oklahoma 34.4% 65.6% 0.0% 33.8% 66.2% 1.2% 36.7% 63.3% -26.6% -31% 4.6%
Oregon 51.3% 47.2% 1.5% 52.2% 46.3% -1.8% 52.6% 46.0% 6.7% 4% 2.5%
Pennsylvania 50.9% 48.4% 0.7% 55.1% 44.2% -8.4% 51.3% 48.1% 3.2% 3% 0.7%
Rhode Island 59.4% 38.7% 1.9% 62.1% 36.0% -5.3% 60.7% 37.5% 23.3% 21% 2.5%

South Carolina 40.9% 58.0% 1.1% 45.8% 53.1% -9.7% 46.7% 52.4% -5.7% -17% 11.4%
South Dakota 38.4% 59.9% 1.6% 35.9% 62.5% 5.1% 39.3% 59.0% -19.6% -21% 1.9%
Tennessee 42.5% 56.8% 0.7% 43.2% 56.1% -1.3% 44.4% 54.9% -10.4% -14% 3.9%
Texas 38.2% 61.1% 0.7% 42.0% 57.3% -7.6% 41.1% 58.3% -17.2% -23% 5.6%
Utah 26.0% 71.5% 2.5% 28.1% 69.4% -4.3% 31.0% 66.8% -35.8% -46% 9.7%

Vermont 58.9% 38.8% 2.3% 66.5% 31.2% -15.2% 59.2% 38.6% 20.6% 20% 0.5%
Virginia 45.5% 53.7% 0.8% 49.8% 49.3% -8.7% 46.3% 52.8% -6.5% -8% 1.7%
Washington 52.8% 45.6% 1.5% 56.8% 41.6% -8.0% 53.0% 45.5% 7.5% 7% 0.3%
West Virginia 43.2% 56.1% 0.7% 40.2% 59.0% 5.9% 45.1% 54.2% -9.0% -13% 3.8%
Wisconsin 49.7% 49.3% 1.0% 52.1% 46.9% -4.8% 49.8% 49.2% 0.6% 0% 0.3%
Wyoming 29.1% 68.9% 2.1% 32.6% 65.4% -7.0% 29.8% 68.2% -38.3% -40% 1.4%