The Allocation True Vote (ATV) model is a simple method for approximating the True Vote in the 1968-2008 elections. It is instructive to compare the results to the Recursive True Vote (RTV) model.

The RTV model utilizes a feasible mix of returning voters from the prior election based on voter mortality and estimated turnout. The True Vote is then calculated for the current election using National Exit Poll vote shares of returning and new voters.

Unlike RTV, ATV does NOT utilize PRIOR election voter turnout, mortality or current election NEP vote shares. It calculates an approximation to the True Vote based on CURRENT election Total Votes Cast. Uncounted and third-party votes are allocated to the Democrat and Republican. As in RTV, the ATV assumes that 75% of uncounted votes are Democratic.

In the ATV, third-party votes are allocated based on a best case estimate: Nixon was given 70% of Wallace votes in 1968, Bush 70% of Perot in 1992 and Dole 70% of Perot in 1996.

In 2000, 2004 and 2008, 75% of Third-party votes were allocated to Gore, Kerry and Obama.

In 1968-1984, the average deviation between the 2-party ATV vote share and the corresponding RTV share was a very slim -0.5%.

In 1988-2008, the average deviation was a much larger 3.4%. There is a reason for this. HAVA guess.

The 1992, 2004 and 2008 elections had the largest deviations between the RTV and ATV 2-party shares (5.7%, 4.6% and 5.0%, respectively). A Bush's was the incumbent in each. The True Vote deviations were primarily due to a combination of electronic VOTE-SWITCHING and BALLOT-STUFFING.

The the primary cause of the deviations in the 1968-2000 elections were the AVERAGE 8.2 MILLION NET UNCOUNTED VOTES. THE ACTUAL NUMBER OF UNCOUNTED VOTES EXCEEDS NET UNCOUNTED BY THE NUMBER OF STUFFED BALLOTS.

NET UNCOUNTED = GROSS UNCOUNTED - STUFFED

Therefore, the Democrats did even better than the models indicate.

1968-2008
Republicans led in Recorded vote share: 48.6-45.9%
Democrats led in Total Votes Cast: 47.9-46.9%.

ALLOCATION TRUE VOTE MODEL (2-party)
1968-2008: Republicans led 50.1-49.9%.
1968-1984: Republicans led 52.9-47.1%.
1988-2008: Democrats led 51.8-48.2%.

RECURSIVE TRUE VOTE MODEL
1968-2008: Democrats led 49.6-44.8%.
1968-1984: Republicans led 50.4-44.6%.
1988-2008: Democrats led 52.8-41.2%.

Table 3 displays the discrepancy between the Recursive True Vote and the adjusted vote shares (75% uncounted to the Dem). The close match in margin (except for the Bush years) is a confirmation of the RTV model input factors (i.e. votes cast, mortality, turnout and NEP vote shares).


Table 1: Votes in millions
Recorded 0.75 Unctd..Allocated..3rd-party 3rd-pty to
Votes Dem Rep Other Unctd Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem
1968 73.0 31.3 31.8 9.9 6.00 35.8 33.3 38.7 40.2 0.30
1972 77.7 29.2 47.2 1.4 9.43 36.2 49.5 36.9 50.2 0.50
1976 81.5 40.8 39.1 1.6 6.72 45.9 40.8 46.6 41.6 0.50
1980 86.6 35.5 43.9 7.2 7.96 41.5 45.9 45.0 49.5 0.50
1984 92.7 37.6 54.5 0.6 9.85 45.0 56.9 45.1 57.4 0.30

1988 91.6 41.8 48.9 0.9 10.63 49.8 51.5 50.2 52.0 0.50
1992 104.4 44.9 39.1 20.4 9.45 52.0 41.5 58.1 55.7 0.30
1996 96.3 47.4 39.2 9.7 8.74 54.0 41.4 56.9 48.2 0.30
2000 105.4 51.0 50.5 4.0 5.41 55.1 51.8 58.0 52.8 0.75
2004 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2 3.44 61.6 62.9 62.5 63.2 0.75
2008 131.5 69.5 60.0 2.0 0.85 70.1 60.2 71.6 60.7 0.75

Total 1062.9 488.0 516.1 58.8 78.5 546.8 535.7 569.9 571.5
Share 45.9% 48.6% 5.5% 6.9% 47.9% 46.9% 49.9% 50.1%

Table 2: Vote shares
Votes Recorded Votes Cast Adj 2-party True Dem True Adj
Cast Dem Rep Other Unctd Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem 2-party Diff
1968 78.96 42.9% 43.6% 13.6% 7.6% 45.3% 42.2% 49.1% 50.9% 45.3% 49.4% 0.3%
1972 87.17 37.5% 60.7% 1.8% 10.8% 41.6% 56.8% 42.4% 57.6% 40.4% 41.3% -1.1%
1976 88.25 50.1% 48.0% 1.9% 7.6% 52.0% 46.3% 52.9% 47.1% 53.0% 54.0% 1.1%
1980 94.53 41.0% 50.7% 8.3% 8.4% 43.9% 48.5% 47.7% 52.3% 42.7% 46.8% -0.8%
1984 102.50 40.6% 58.8% 0.7% 9.6% 43.9% 55.5% 44.0% 56.0% 42.1% 42.3% -1.7%

1988 102.22 45.6% 53.4% 1.0% 10.4% 48.7% 50.4% 49.1% 50.9% 49.6% 50.1% 1.0%
1992 113.87 43.0% 37.4% 19.5% 8.3% 45.7% 36.4% 51.0% 49.0% 50.9% 56.8% 5.7%
1996 105.02 49.2% 40.7% 10.1% 8.3% 51.4% 39.4% 54.1% 45.9% 53.4% 56.4% 2.3%
2000 110.83 48.4% 47.9% 3.7% 4.9% 49.7% 46.8% 52.4% 47.6% 50.3% 53.2% 0.8%
2004 125.74 48.3% 50.7% 1.0% 2.7% 49.0% 50.0% 49.7% 50.3% 53.5% 54.3% 4.6%
2008 132.31 52.9% 45.6% 1.5% 0.6% 53.0% 45.5% 54.1% 45.9% 58.0% 59.2% 5.0%

Total 1141.40
1968-2008 45.8% 48.6% 5.6% 6.9% 47.9% 46.9% 49.9% 50.1% 49.6% 51.8% 1.8%

1968-1984 42.3% 52.7% 5.0% 8.8% 45.3% 50.2% 47.1% 52.9% 44.6% 46.6% -0.5%
1988-2008 48.1% 46.0% 6.0% 5.6% 49.6% 44.8% 51.8% 48.2% 52.8% 55.2% 3.4%


Table 3: Recursive True vote vs. Adjusted (uncounted vote allocation) share

Votes Recorded Vote Net Votes Cast True Vote Margin
Cast Dem Rep Other Unctd Dem Rep Dem Rep Diff
1968 78.96 42.9% 43.6% 13.6% 7.6% 45.3% 42.2% 45.3% 41.9% 0.3%
1972 87.17 37.5% 60.7% 1.8% 10.8% 41.6% 56.8% 40.4% 56.6% -1.0%
1976 88.25 50.1% 48.0% 1.9% 7.6% 52.0% 46.3% 53.0% 45.2% 2.1%
1980 94.53 41.0% 50.7% 8.3% 8.4% 43.9% 48.5% 42.7% 48.9% -1.6%
1984 102.50 40.6% 58.8% 0.7% 9.6% 43.9% 55.5% 42.1% 57.2% -3.5%

1988 102.22 45.6% 53.4% 1.0% 10.4% 48.7% 50.4% 49.6% 49.3% 2.1%
1992 113.87 43.0% 37.4% 19.5% 8.3% 45.7% 36.4% 50.9% 30.8% 10.9%
1996 105.02 49.2% 40.7% 10.1% 8.3% 51.4% 39.4% 53.4% 37.1% 4.3%
2000 110.83 48.4% 47.9% 3.7% 4.9% 49.7% 46.8% 50.3% 46.0% 1.5%
2004 125.74 48.3% 50.7% 1.0% 2.7% 49.0% 50.0% 53.5% 45.1% 9.4%
2008 132.31 52.9% 45.6% 1.5% 0.6% 53.0% 45.5% 58.0% 40.3% 10.2%

Total 1141.40
Average 103.8 45.4% 48.9% 5.7% 6.9% 47.6% 47.1% 49.0% 45.3% 3.2%
1968-2008 45.8% 48.6% 5.6% 6.9% 47.9% 46.9% 49.6% 44.9% 3.7%

1968-1984 42.3% 52.7% 5.0% 8.8% 45.3% 50.2% 44.6% 50.3% -0.8%
1988-2008 48.1% 46.0% 6.0% 5.6% 49.6% 44.8% 52.8% 41.3% 6.7%