TruthIsAll

Mar. 30, 2009

In analyzing historical election data, an ongoing pattern of statistical anomalies leads to two conclusions: the recorded vote does not reflect the True Vote and the pattern always favors the Republicans. This brief summary of recurring anomalies since the 2000 Selection is powerful evidence that the 2000 and 2004 elections were stolen and that landslides were denied in the 2006 midterms and 2008 presidential elections. The analysis does not include millions of potential Democrats who were disenfranchised and never even got to vote.

Uncounted Votes
There are millions of uncounted votes in every election. The majority (70-80%) are Democratic.

Late Votes
The Democratic late vote exceeded the Election Day share by 7% in each of the last three presidential elections.

Undecided voters
Historically, undecided voters break (60-90%) for the challenger.
Pre-election polls in general do not allocate undecided voters.
The undecided vote was strongly Democratic in the last three elections.

Pre-election Polls
Registered voter (RV) polls include all registered new voters; likely-voter (LV) polls are a subset of RV polls and exclude many newly registered.
In general, only LV polls are posted during the final two weeks before the election.
LV polls are a subset of the total (RV) sample and have consistently understated the Democratic vote.
The RV samples are more accurate, especially when there is a heavy turnout of new voters – as in 2004, 2006 and 2008.
The Census reported that 88.5% of registered voters turned out on 2004.
The average projected turnout of 5 final pre-election RV/LV polls was 82.8%.
A regression analysis of Kerry’s vote share vs. registered voter turnout indicated he had a 52.6% share (assuming a 75% UVA).
Assuming the two-party vote, Kerry had a 51.3% share.
There was a strong 0.89 correlation ratio between Kerry’s LV poll share and LV/RV turnout.
In other words, the pre-election polls underestimated voter turnout by 6%. Newly registered Democrats came out in force.

New Voters
According to the 1988-2004 National Exit Polls, the Democrats won new voters by an average 14% margin.
In 2008, Obama won new voters by approximately 71-27%; in 2004, Kerry won new voters by approximately 57-41%.

The calculations below confirm that new voters comprise the difference (RV – LV) between registered (RV) and likely voter (LV) sample-size.
The Obama / McCain share of the difference was 73.3-26.7%, closely matching the 71-27% NEP new voter share.
The Kerry / Bush share of the difference was 57.8-42.2%, closely matching the 57-41% NEP new voter share.

The number of new voters is a function of voter mortality and turnout. It is estimated by the simple formula:
New voters = current election voters– (prior election recorded vote – voter mortality) * prior voter turnout

Applying the new voter formula based on the 2008 recorded vote (131.37m) and the 2004 vote (122.3m),
Given 1.2% annual voter mortality (5.9 million over 4 years) and an estimated 97% turnout of 2004 election voters in 2008:
New 2008 voters = 18.5 million = 131.37 – (122.3 – 5.9)* 0.97 = 131.37 –116.4*.97= 131.37- 112.91
According to the Final 2008 NEP, there were 17.1m new voters (13% of 131.37).

Applying the new voter formula based on 2004 votes cast (125.7m) and 2000 votes cast (110.8m),
New 2004 voters = 23.5 million = 125.7 – (110.8 – 5.4)* 0.97 = 125.74 –105.4*.97= 125.74- 102.24

There were approximately 3.8 million returning Nader voters. Kerry won 2.4 million (64%); Bush had 0.7 million (17%)
According to the 1222am National Exit Poll, Kerry won 13.4 million (57%) new voters; Bush had 9.4 million (41%).
Of the 27.3 million new and returning Nader voters, Kerry won 15.8m and Bush 10.1m – a 5.7 million Kerry margin.
Since Bush won the official recorded vote by 3 million, then 8.7 million more returning Gore voters defected than Bush voters.
But the 1222am National Exit Poll indicated that 10% of returning Bush voters defected to Kerry and 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush.

Final National Exit Poll
The Final NEP is always forced to match the recorded vote count.
In 2004, the returning Bush/Gore 43/37% voter mix was impossible.
In 2006, the returning 49/43% Bush/Kerry voter mix was implausible.
In 2008, the returning 46/37% Bush/Kerry voter mix was impossible.

2000
Gore won by 51.0-50.46m (48.38-47.87%).
The Census reported 110.8 million votes cast, but just 105.4m were recorded.
The Final 2000 NEP was forced to match the recorded vote.
Approximately 4 million of the 5.4 million uncounted votes were for Gore.
Therefore he won the True Vote by 55-52m.
The election was stolen.

2004
Bush won the recorded vote by 62.0-59.0m (50.73-48.27%)
Kerry won the unadjusted state exit polls by 52-47%.
He led the preliminary NEP (12:22am, 13047 respondents) by 51-48%.
He led despite the implausible NEP 41/39% returning Bush/Gore voter mix.

The Final NEP (13660 sample) was forced to match the 50.7-48.3% Bush recorded margin.
To force the match in the Final NEP:
a) Bush shares of returning and new voters were increased,
b) The returning Bush/Gore voter mix was changed to an impossible 43/37%.
The mix indicates an impossible 52.6m (43% of 122.3) returning Bush 2000 voters.

Bush only had 50.46 million recorded votes in 2000.
Approximately 2.5m died and 2.5m did not vote in 2004.
So there were at most 45.5 million returning Bush voters.
The Final overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 7 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 8-10 million.
The election was stolen.


2006 Midterms
Democrats won all 120 pre-election Generic polls.
The final trend line projection showed a 56.43-41.57% Democratic landslide.
At 7pm, the NEP indicated a 55-43% landslide.
The returning Bush/Kerry voter mix was 47/45%.

The Final was forced to match the 52-46% recorded vote.
To force the match:
a) the Bush share of returning and new voters were increased,
b) the returning voter mix was changed to an impossible 49/43%.
The Democratic margin was cut in half.
The landslide was denied.

2008
Obama won the recorded vote by 69.4-59.9m (52.9-45.6%)
Obama led the final pre-election registered voter polls by 52-39%.
The Final 2008 NEP was forced to match the recorded vote.

The Final indicated that an impossible 5.2 million (4% of 131.37m) were returning third-party voters.
There were only 1.2 million third-party voters in 2004.

To force the match, the Final indicated an impossible 46/37% Bush/Kerry returning voter mix.
The Final indicated there were 60.4 million (46% of 131.37m) returning Bush voters.
Bush only had 62.0 million votes in 2004 (assuming no fraud).
Approximately 3 million died and another 3 million did not vote in 2008.

The mix overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 4 million - assuming zero fraud in 2004.
It overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 9 million - assuming the unadjusted 2004 state aggregate exit poll (Kerry by 52-47%).
Obama's True Vote margin was cut in half.
The landslide was denied.

In summary:
If Final NEP weightings indicate a mathematically impossible number of returning voters, then simple logic dictates that the weightings are impossible.
Since impossible weightings were necessary to match to the official vote count, then the official vote count must also be impossible.
Since the vote count is impossible, then all demographic category cross tabs must use incorrect weights and/or vote shares to match the count.




Presidential elections 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Registered Voters 116.11 118.59 126.58 127.66 129.55 142.07
Change from prior year 11.07 2.48 7.99 1.08 1.89 12.52
4-year mortality 6.04 6.07 6.38 6.33 6.32 6.82
New Registered Voters 16.62 8.52 14.06 7.46 8.22 18.84

Total votes cast 101.88 102.22 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74
Change from prior 8.81 0.35 11.64 -8.85 5.81 14.91
4-year mortality 5.30 5.23 5.74 5.21 5.41 6.04
Incr votes cast 8.81 0.35 11.64 -8.85 5.81 14.91
Incr votes cast 13.73 5.64 16.88 -3.11 11.02 20.32

Percent
Voting age 59.94 57.40 61.32 54.23 54.70 63.83
Registered 87.75 86.20 89.96 82.26 85.55 88.51
Change from prior 9.47 0.34 11.39 -7.77 5.53 13.46

Total Recorded Votes 92.03 91.60 103.75 91.27 105.42 122.30
Democrat 37.58 41.81 44.91 45.59 51.00 59.03
Republican 54.46 48.89 39.10 37.82 50.46 62.04
Other 3rd party 0.00 0.90 19.74 7.87 3.28 1.23

Uncounted 9.85 10.63 10.12 13.74 5.41 3.44
Democrat 7.38 7.97 7.59 10.31 4.06 2.58
Republican 2.46 2.66 2.53 3.44 1.35 0.86
Net Democrat 4.92 5.31 5.06 6.87 2.70 1.72

Uncounted 9.66 10.40 8.88 13.09 4.88 2.74



UNCOUNTED VOTES

Recorded Cast(census) Uncounted
2008 131.37 na na
2004 122.30 125.74 3.44
2000 105.4 110.8 5.4


LATE VOTES

2008 Total Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
Election Day 121.21 63.45 56.13 1.64 52.34% 46.31% 1.35%
Late 10.16 6.01 3.81 0.34 59.16% 37.48% 3.36%
Total 131.37 69.46 59.94 1.98 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%

2004 Total Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
Election Day 116.7 56.4 59.8 0.40 48.32% 51.24% 0.44%
Late 5.6 2.6 2.2 0.80 46.90% 39.40% 13.70%
Total 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.20 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%


2000 Total Gore Bush Other Gore Bush Other
Election Day 102.6 49.5 49.3 3.8 48.25% 48.05% 3.7%
Late 2.8 1.5 1.2 0.1 53.6% 42.9% 3.5%
Total 105.4 51.00 50.46 3.95 48.38% 47.87% 3.75%




2000 Voter Mortality

Mortality Table NEP Annual Voter Votes Final 2000 NEP Total Voter Deaths
Age AnnualRate Age Rate Mort. Cast Mix Gore Bush Other Gore Bush Other

15-24 0.09% 18-29 0.10% 0.019 18.84 17% 48% 46% 6% 0.036 0.035 0.005
25-45 0.18% 30-44 0.20% 0.064 32.13 29% 48% 49% 3% 0.123 0.126 0.008
45-64 0.71% 45-59 0.60% 0.199 33.24 30% 48% 49% 3% 0.383 0.391 0.024
65+ 5.07% 60+ 4.00% 1.064 26.59 24% 51% 47% 2% 2.170 2.000 0.085

Total 1.22% 1.346 110.8 100% 48.72% 48.01% 3.27% 2.712 2.551 0.121
Total 53.98 53.20 3.62 5.02% 4.80% 3.35%


Mort. Total Gore Bush Other

Deaths 5.38 2.71 2.55 0.121
4 year 4.88% 50.37% 47.38% 2.25%
Annual 1.22% 1.26% 1.20% 0.84%


2008 Undecided Voter Allocation

Pre-election Poll Undecided Voters Allocated
2008 Obama McCain Spread Obama McCain Spread
Gallup 53 42 11 55 44 11
IBD 47.3 42.8 4.5 51.5 44.3 7.2
Zogby 51 44 7 54.1 42.7 11.4
Dem Corp 51 44 7 53 44 9
Ipsos 50 42 8 53 46 7
Pew 49 42 7 52 46 6

Average 50.22 42.80 7.42 53.10 44.50 8.60
50.22 42.80 7.42
Change UVA 2.88 1.70 1.18
Average 62.9% 37.1% 25.8%



Gallup, IBD, Zogby, Dem Corp
Proj 53.4 43.8 9.7
Poll 50.6 43.2 7.2
UVA 2.8 0.5 2.4
Average 83.7% 16.3% 67.4%

Ipsos, Pew
Proj 52.5 46.0 6.5
Poll 49.5 42.0 7.3
UVA 3.0 4.0 -0.8
Average 42.9% 57.1% -14.2%



PRE-ELECTION RV AND LV POLLS

2008 Final Pre-election Polls

The Obama / McCain RV-LV share was 73.3-26.7%, closely matching the NEP new voter share (71-27%).

The 1052 difference between the RV samples (8581) and the LV subsets (7529)
comprised 12.3% of the total RV sample.
There were approximately 20.8 million newly registered voters and other voters who
did not vote in 2008, comprising 15.8% of the total 131.37m vote count.

Of the 20.8 million, 14.5m (11% of 131.37) were first-time voters.
Obama won 69% of first-timers.

RV Sample Obama McCain Spread
Gallup 2824 53 40 13
ABC 2762 54 41 13
Pew 2995 50 39 11

Total 8581 52.27 39.97 12.30


LV Sample Obama McCain Spread
Gallup 2472 53 42 11
ABC 2470 53 44 9
Pew 2587 49 42 7

Total 7529 51.63 42.66 9.0


RV and LV Samples

Total 7916 RV 7099 LV
Obama McCain Obama McCain
Gallup 1497 1130 1310 1038
ABC 1491 1132 1309 1087
Pew 1498 1168 1268 1087

Total 4486 3430 3887 3212
Share 52.3% 40.0% 51.6% 42.7%


RV-LV Obama McCain Obama McCain Spread
Gallup 278 187 91 67.1% 32.9% 34.3%
ABC 228 182 46 80.0% 20.0% 60.0%
Pew 311 230 82 73.8% 26.2% 47.6%

Total 817 599 218 73.3% 26.7% 46.6%
Final NEP new voters 71% 27%


RV Sample Obama McCain Spread
Gallup 2824 53 40 13
ABC 2762 54 41 13
Pew 2995 50 39 11

Total 8581 52.3 40.0 12.3


2004

The Kerry/Bush vote split of the difference (1335) in sample between the RV and LV
subset (57.8–42.2%) matched the 12:22am Preliminary National Exit Poll 'New Voter'
shares: 57–41–2%. The 1769 difference — i.e. 5-poll RV samples (10310) exclusive of
their LV subsets (8541) — comprised 17.2% of the RV total sample.

In 2004, there were approximately 21.4 million newly registered and other new voters
(i.e., 'DNV' 2000) — 17% of the 125.74m total votes cast. Of the 21.4 million, 13.8m
(11% of 125.74) were first-time voters. Kerry won 55% of first-timers.

The average pre-election poll projected turnout of registered voters was 82.8%
(117m of 142m registered). The census reported an 88.5% voter turnout (125.7m).
There were 122.3m votes recorded.

75% UVA 25%
RV Poll Sample Kerry Bush Spread Kerry Bush Spread
11/1 CBS 1125 46 47 -1 50.50 48.50 2.0
10/31 Fox 1400 48 45 3 52.50 46.50 6.0
10/31 Gallup 1866 48 46 2 51.75 47.25 4.5
10/31 ABC 3511 48 47 1 51.00 48.00 3.0
10/30 Pew 2408 46 45 1 52.00 47.00 5.0

Average 2062 47.2 46 1.2 51.55 47.45 4.1

LV Poll Sample Kerry Bush Spread Kerry Bush Spread Projected Turnout
11/1 CBS 939 47 49 -2 49.25 49.75 -0.5 83.5%
10/31 Fox 1200 48 46 2 51.75 47.25 4.5 85.7%
10/31 Gallup 1573 49 49 0 49.75 49.25 0.5 84.3%
10/31 ABC 2904 48 49 -1 49.50 49.50 0.0 82.7%
10/30 Pew 1925 48 51 -3 48.00 51.00 -3.0 79.9%

Average 1708 48 48.8 -0.8 49.65 49.35 0.3 82.8%


Regression analysis: Kerry Vote share vs. Registered Voter Turnout

Two-party 75% UVA
y=.15+.41x y=.012+.581x
Kerry Turnout Kerry Turnout
48.6% 82% 48.8% 82%
49.0% 83% 49.4% 83% 5-pre-election polls est. turnout
49.4% 84% 50.0% 84%
49.9% 85% 50.6% 85%
50.3% 86% 51.2% 86%
50.7% 87% 51.7% 87%
51.1% 88% 52.3% 88%
51.3% 88.5% 52.6% 88.5% Census Turnout
51.5% 89% 52.9% 89%
51.9% 90% 53.5% 90%



2000
60% UVA 40%
Date RV Poll Gore Bush Spread Gore Bush Spread
11/2 Newsweek 44 41 3 52.40 46.60 5.80
11/5 Pew 45 41 4 52.80 46.20 6.60
11/5 Gallup 46 44 2 51.40 47.60 3.80

Total 45 42 3 52.20 46.80 5.40

Date LV Poll Gore Bush Spread Gore Bush Spread
11/2 Newsweek 43 45 -2 49.60 49.40 0.20
11/5 Pew 43 45 -2 49.60 49.40 0.20
11/5 Gallup 45 47 -2 49.20 49.80 -0.60

Total 43.67 45.67 -2 49.47 49.53 -0.07


RV Polls LV Polls
Dem Rep Spread Dem Rep Spread
2000 45.00 42.00 3.00 43.67 45.67 -2.00
2004 47.20 46.00 1.80 47.20 47.00 0.20
2008 52.33 40.00 12.33 52.00 43.00 9.00

UVA Projected
2000 52.20 46.80 5.40 49.47 49.53 -0.07
2004 51.55 47.45 4.10 49.65 49.35 0.30
2008 56.96 41.54 15.42 54.63 43.88 10.75

Recorded
2000 48.87 48.38 0.49 48.87 48.38 0.49
2004 48.27 50.73 -2.46 48.27 50.73 -2.46
2008 52.87 45.62 7.25 52.87 45.62 7.25

Diff: Proj-Recd
2000 3.33 -1.58 4.91 0.60 1.15 -0.56
2004 3.28 -3.28 6.56 1.38 -1.38 2.76
2008 4.09 -4.08 8.17 1.76 -1.75 3.50


NATIONAL EXIT POLL

2004 PRELIMINARY 2004 FINAL 2008 FINAL
12:22am (13047) 2pm (13660)

Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Voted Obama McCain Other 2000 2004
DNV 17% 57% 41% 2% 17% 54% 45% 1% DNV 13% 71% 27% 2%
Gore 39% 91% 8% 1% 37% 90% 10% 0% Kerry 37% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 41% 10% 90% 0% 43% 9% 91% 0% Bush 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 3% 64% 17% 19% 3% 71% 21% 8% Other 4% 66% 24% 10%

Share 100% 51.20% 47.50% 1.30% 100% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 100% 52.62% 45.94% 1.44%
Votes 122.30 62.62 58.09 1.59 122.30 59.29 62.50 0.50 131.37 69.13 60.35 1.89



2006 MIDTERMS

National Exit Poll
Source Dem Rep Other
CNN-7pm 55.2% 43.4% 1.5%
CNN-Final 52.2% 45.9% 2.5%
NYT 53.1% 44.9% 2.0%

Reported National Vote
Wikipedia 57.7% 41.8% 0.5%
CBS- Nat 52.7% 45.1% 2.2%
CBS-State 51.3% 46.4% 2.3%


120 Generic Poll Linear Regression Trend
Dem = 46.98 + .0419x
Rep = 38.06 + .0047x

Substituting x = 120 and allocating 60% of the undecided vote (UVA) to the Democrats:
Trend + UVA = Projection
Dem = 52.01 + 4.42 = 56.43%
Rep = 38.62 + 2.95 = 41.57%


Generic Pre-election Poll Trend vs. the 7:07pm and Final National Exit Poll


VOTED 2004
--------- 7:07pm ----------- --------- 1pm Final --------- ----- True Generic Vote -----
Mix Dem Rep Other Mix Dem Rep Other Mix Dem Rep Other
Kerry 45% 93% 6% 1% 43% 92% 7% 1% 49% 93% 6% 1%
Bush 47% 17% 82% 1% 49% 15% 83% 2% 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 4% 67% 23% 10% 4% 66% 23% 11% 1% 67% 23% 10%
DNV 4% 67% 30% 3% 4% 66% 32% 2% 4% 67% 30% 3%

TOTAL 100% 55.2% 43.4% 1.4% 100% 52.2% 45.9% 1.9% 100% 56.7% 42.1% 1.2%



TRUE VOTE CALCULATION

2008
Vote Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 21.7 16.0% 15.42 5.86 0.43 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 59.1 43.7% 52.63 5.32 1.18 89% 9% 2%
Bush 53.4 39.5% 9.09 43.82 0.53 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.1 0.8% 0.75 0.27 0.11 66% 24% 10%

Total 135.4 100.0% 77.88 55.28 2.27 57.5% 40.8% 1.7%
Recorded 131.37 69.5 59.9 2.0 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%


2004
Vote Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 25.6 20.4% 14.60 10.50 0.51 57% 41% 2%
Gore 49.7 39.6% 45.26 3.98 0.50 91% 8% 1%
Bush 46.7 37.1% 4.67 42.00 0.0 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.7 3.0% 2.38 0.63 0.71 64% 17% 19%

Total 125.7 100.0% 66.91 57.11 1.72 53.2% 45.4% 1.4%
Recorded 122.30 59.0 62.0 1.2 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%

2000
Vote Mix Gore Bush Other Gore Bush Other
DNV 16.0 14.4% 8.32 6.88 0.80 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 48.7 44.0% 41.89 4.38 2.44 86% 9% 5%
Dole 37.0 33.4% 2.59 33.27 1.11 7% 90% 3%
Other 9.1 8.2% 2.47 6.48 0.18 27% 71% 2%

Total 110.8 100.0% 55.26 51.02 4.53 49.9% 46.0% 4.1%
Recorded 105.42 51.0 50.5 4.0 48.38% 47.87% 3.75%


2004 PRELIMINARY 2004 FINAL 2008 FINAL
12:22am, 13047 respondents 2:04pm, 13660 respondents

CATEGORY Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Obama McCain Other
Average 50.85% 47.88% 1.27% 47.95% 51.08% 0.97% 52.69% 45.57% 1.74%
Total Votes 62.19 58.55 1.55 58.64 62.47 1.19 69.22 59.86 2.29

Max 51.63% 48.51% 1.85% 48.62% 51.62% 1.46% 53.13% 46.14% 2.24%
Min 50.08% 47.24% 0.69% 47.29% 50.54% 0.48% 52.25% 44.99% 1.25%


Gender 50.78% 48.22% 1.00% 47.78% 51.22% 1.00% 52.71% 45.35% 1.94%
Party-ID 51.07% 47.85% 1.08% 47.89% 51.22% 0.89% 52.67% 45.14% 2.19%
Voted 2000 51.20% 47.50% 1.30% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 52.62% 45.94% 1.44%
Region 50.53% 47.95% 1.52% 48.24% 51.08% 0.68% 52.76% 45.56% 1.68%
Education 50.43% 48.18% 1.39% 47.82% 51.24% 0.94% 52.31% 45.93% 1.76%

Race 50.98% 47.61% 1.41% 47.81% 50.99% 1.20% 52.82% 45.57% 1.61%
Age 50.26% 47.69% 2.05% 47.96% 51.28% 0.76% 52.29% 45.71% 2.00%
Income 51.07% 47.75% 1.18% 48.13% 51.02% 0.85% 52.96% 44.99% 2.05%
Ideology 50.18% 48.60% 1.22% 47.25% 51.54% 1.21% 52.56% 45.88% 1.56%
Religion 50.78% 48.01% 1.21% 47.99% 50.94% 1.07% 53.07% 45.58% 1.35%

Military 51.20% 47.62% 1.18% 48.38% 50.44% 1.18% 52.65% 45.50% 1.85%
Decided 51.23% 47.93% 0.84% 47.50% 51.22% 1.28% 52.67% 45.81% 1.52%
Location 51.40% 47.47% 1.13% 48.14% 50.73% 1.13% 52.88% 45.41% 1.71%



GENDER
Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other
Male 46.0% 47% 52% 1% 46% 44% 55% 1% 46% 49% 48% 3%
Fem 54.0% 54% 45% 1% 54% 51% 48% 1% 54% 56% 43% 1%

Share 100% 50.78% 48.22% 1.00% 100% 47.78% 51.22% 1.00% 100% 52.71% 45.35% 1.94%
Votes 122.30 62.10 58.97 1.22 122.30 58.43 62.64 1.22 131.37 69.25 59.58 2.55


Dem -1%; Rep +2%; Ind -1%
PARTY ID
Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other

Dem 38% 91% 9% 0% 37% 89% 11% 0% 39% 89% 10% 1%
Rep 35% 7% 93% 0% 37% 6% 93% 1% 31% 9% 89% 2%
Ind 27% 52% 44% 4% 26% 49% 49% 2% 30% 52% 44% 4%

Share 100% 51.07% 47.85% 1.08% 100% 47.89% 51.22% 0.89% 100% 52.67% 45.14% 2.19%
Votes 122.30 62.46 58.52 1.32 122.30 58.57 62.64 1.09 131.37 69.19 59.30 2.88




VOTED IN 2000 Gore -2%+ Bush +2%
Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other

DNV 17% 57% 41% 2% 17% 54% 45% 1% DNV 13% 71% 27% 2%
Gore 39% 91% 8% 1% 37% 90% 10% 0% Kerry 37% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 41% 10% 90% 0% 43% 9% 91% 0% Bush 49% 17% 82% 1%
Other 3% 64% 17% 19% 3% 71% 21% 8% Other 4% 66% 24% 10%

Share 100% 51.20% 47.50% 1.30% 100% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 100.0% 52.62% 45.94% 1.44%
Votes 122.30 62.62 58.09 1.59 122.30 59.29 62.50 0.50 131.37 69.13 60.35 1.89


South +1%; West -1%
REGION
Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other

East 22% 58% 41% 1% 22% 56% 43% 1% 22% 59% 40% 1%
Midw 26% 50% 49% 1% 26% 48% 51% 1% 24% 54% 44% 2%
South 31% 44% 54% 2% 32% 42% 58% 0% 32% 46% 53% 1%
West 21% 53% 45% 2% 20% 50% 49% 1% 22% 55% 42% 3%

Share 100% 50.53% 47.95% 1.52% 100% 48.24% 51.08% 0.68% 100% 52.76% 45.56% 1.68%
Votes 122.30 61.80 58.64 1.86 122.30 59.00 62.47 0.83 131.37 69.31 59.85 2.21


Some college+1%; Post Grad -1%
EDUCATION
Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other

NoHS 4% 53% 46% 1% 4% 50% 49% 1% 4% 63% 36% 1%
HSG 22% 50% 48% 2% 22% 47% 52% 1% 20% 52% 47% 1%
College 31% 48% 51% 1% 32% 46% 54% 0% 31% 51% 47% 2%
ColG 26% 49% 50% 1% 26% 46% 52% 2% 28% 49% 49% 2%
PostG 17% 57% 41% 2% 16% 55% 44% 1% 17% 58% 40% 2%

Share 100% 50.43% 48.18% 1.39% 100% 47.82% 51.24% 0.94% 100% 52.31% 45.93% 1.76%
Votes 122.30 61.67 58.92 1.70 122.30 58.48 62.66 1.15 131.37 68.72 60.34 2.31



RACE AND GENDER

Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other
WMale 36% 40% 59% 1% 36% 37% 62% 1% 36% 41% 57% 2%
WFem 41% 47% 51% 2% 41% 44% 55% 1% 39% 46% 53% 1%
NwMale 10% 73% 26% 1% 10% 67% 30% 3% 11% 76% 22% 2%
NwFem 13% 77% 22% 1% 13% 75% 24% 1% 14% 84% 14% 2%

Share 100% 50.98% 47.61% 1.41% 100% 47.81% 50.99% 1.20% 100% 52.82% 45.57% 1.61%
Votes 122.30 62.35 58.22 1.72 122.30 58.47 62.36 1.47 131.37 69.39 59.87 2.12



AGE

Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other
18-29 17% 56% 42% 2% 17% 54% 45% 1% 18% 66% 32% 2%
30-44 29% 48% 49% 3% 29% 46% 53% 1% 29% 52% 46% 2%
45-59 30% 51% 47% 2% 30% 48% 51% 1% 37% 49% 49% 2%
60+ 24% 48% 51% 1% 24% 46% 54% 0% 16% 45% 53% 2%

Share 100% 50.26% 47.69% 2.05% 100% 47.96% 51.28% 0.76% 100% 52.29% 45.71% 2.00%
Votes 122.30 61.47 58.32 2.51 122.30 58.65 62.71 0.93 131.37 68.69 60.05 2.63


0-15 -1%; 75-100 +1%
INCOME

Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other
0-15K 9% 65% 34% 1% 8% 63% 36% 1% 6% 73% 25% 2%
15-30 15% 60% 39% 1% 15% 57% 42% 1% 12% 60% 37% 3%
30-50 22% 53% 46% 1% 22% 50% 49% 1% 19% 55% 43% 2%
50-75 23% 46% 53% 1% 23% 43% 56% 1% 22% 48% 49% 3%
75-100 13% 48% 51% 1% 14% 45% 55% 0% 15% 51% 48% 1%
100-150 11% 43% 55% 2% 11% 42% 57% 1% 14% 48% 51% 1%
150-200 4% 43% 55% 2% 4% 42% 58% 0% 6% 48% 50% 2%
200+ 3% 43% 55% 2% 3% 35% 63% 2% 6% 52% 46% 2%

Share 100% 51.07% 47.75% 1.18% 100% 48.13% 51.02% 0.85% 100% 52.96% 44.99% 2.05%
Votes 122.30 62.46 58.40 1.44 122.30 58.86 62.39 1.04 131.37 69.57 59.10 2.69


Lib -1%; Con +1%
IDEOLOGY

Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other
Lib 22% 86% 12% 2% 21% 85% 13% 2% 22% 88% 10% 2%
Mod 45% 57% 42% 1% 45% 54% 45% 1% 44% 60% 39% 1%
Con 33% 17% 82% 1% 34% 15% 84% 1% 34% 20% 78% 2%

Share 100% 50.18% 48.60% 1.22% 100% 47.25% 51.54% 1.21% 100% 52.56% 45.88% 1.56%
Votes 122.30 61.37 59.44 1.49 122.30 57.78 63.03 1.48 131.37 69.05 60.27 2.05



RELIGION

Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other
Prot 53% 43% 56% 1% 53% 40% 59% 1% 54% 45% 54% 1%
Cath 27% 50% 49% 1% 27% 47% 52% 1% 27% 54% 45% 1%
Jewish 3% 78% 22% 0% 3% 74% 25% 1% 2% 78% 21% 1%
Other 7% 75% 22% 3% 7% 74% 24% 2% 6% 73% 22% 5%
None 10% 69% 29% 2% 10% 67% 32% 1% 11% 75% 23% 2%

Share 100% 50.78% 48.01% 1.21% Total 47.99% 50.94% 1.07% 100% 53.07% 45.58% 1.35%
Votes 122.30 62.10 58.71 1.48 122.30 58.69 62.30 1.31 131.37 69.72 59.88 1.77



MILITARY

Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other
Yes 18% 43% 55% 2% 18% 41% 57% 2% 18% 45% 54% 1%
No 82% 53% 46% 1% 82% 50% 49% 1% 82% 54% 44% 2%

Share 100% 51.20% 47.62% 1.18% 100% 48.38% 50.44% 1.18% 100% 52.65% 45.50% 1.85%
Votes 122.30 62.62 58.24 1.44 122.30 59.17 61.69 1.44 131.37 69.17 59.77 2.43



Today -1%; Last3 +1%
WHEN DECIDED

Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other
Today 6% 53% 40% 7% 5% 52% 45% 3% 4% 50% 45% 5%
3days 3% 53% 41% 6% 4% 55% 42% 3% 3% 46% 52% 2%
7days 2% 48% 50% 2% 2% 48% 51% 1% 3% 48% 50% 2%
30days 10% 60% 38% 2% 10% 54% 44% 2% 15% 54% 43% 3%
Over30 79% 50% 50% 0% 79% 46% 53% 1% 75% 53% 46% 1%

Share 100% 51.23% 47.93% 0.84% 100% 47.50% 51.22% 1.28% 100% 52.67% 45.81% 1.52%
Votes 122.30 62.65 58.62 1.03 122.30 58.09 62.64 1.57 131.37 69.19 60.18 2.00

COMMUNITY

Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other
BigCity 13% 64% 36% 0% 13% 61% 39% 0% 12% 64% 35% 1%
SmCity 18% 53% 45% 2% 18% 49% 49% 2% 18% 63% 35% 2%
Suburbs 45% 50% 49% 1% 45% 47% 52% 1% 50% 50% 48% 2%
SmTowns 8% 52% 46% 2% 8% 48% 50% 2% 8% 50% 48% 2%
Rural 16% 43% 56% 1% 16% 40% 59% 1% 12% 42% 57% 1%

Share 100% 51.40% 47.47% 1.13% 100% 48.14% 50.73% 1.13% 100% 52.88% 45.41% 1.71%
Votes 122.30 58.87 62.04 1.38 131.37 69.47 59.66 2.25




http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_30624_image001.gif

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionCalculator_21811_image001.gif

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionCalculator_23895_image001.gif


http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/InteractiveElectionSimulation_12255_image001.png


http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Election2006_16921_image001.png

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Election2006_22243_image001.png

[div align="left"style="font-family: Times New Roman,Arial;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.3"]
[div style="font-family: Arial,'Times New Roman';font-size: 24px;font-style: italic;font-weight:bold"]The True MATH: Confirming Election Fraud 2000-2008[/quote]
[link:www.truthisall.net/|TruthIsAll]source: [link:www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ConfirmationofPollingElectionFraud.htm|http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ConfirmationofPollingElectionFraud.htm]

Mar 30, 2009

In analyzing historical election data, an ongoing pattern of statistical anomalies leads to two conclusions: the [link:tinyurl.com/ckdknc|recorded vote] does not reflect the [link:tinyurl.com/634fjr|True Vote], and the pattern always favors the Republicans. This brief summary of recurring anomalies since the 2000 Selection is powerful evidence that the 2000 and 2004 elections were stolen and that landslides were denied in the 2006 midterms and 2008 presidential elections. The analysis does not include millions of potential Democrats who were disenfranchised and never even got to vote.

Uncounted Votes
There are millions of [link:tinyurl.com/d7nltv|uncounted] votes in every election. The majority ([link:tinyurl.com/cd6kfw|70-80%]) are Democratic.

Late Votes
The Democratic late vote exceeded the Election Day share by 7% in each of the last three presidential elections.

Undecided voters
Historically, [link:tinyurl.com/6g25xp|undecided voters] break (60-90%) for the challenger.
Pre-election polls in general do not allocate undecided voters.
The undecided vote was strongly Democratic in the last three elections,.

Pre-election Polls
Registered voter (RV) polls include all registered new voters; likely-voter (LV) polls are a subset of RV polls and exclude many newly registered.
In general, only LV polls are posted during the [link:tinyurl.com/brjytb|final two weeks] before the election.
LV polls are a subset of the total (RV) sample and have consistently understated the Democratic vote.
The RV samples are more accurate, especially when there is a heavy turnout of new voters — as in 2004, 2006 and 2008.
The Census reported that [link:tinyurl.com/cq9j7j|88.5%] of registered voters turned out on 2004.
The average projected turnout of 5 final pre-election RV/LV polls was 82.8%.
A regression analysis of Kerry’s vote share vs. registered voter turnout indicated he had a 52.6% share (assuming a 75% UVA).
Assuming the two-party vote, Kerry had a 51.3% share.
There was a strong 0.89 correlation ratio between Kerry’s LV poll share and LV/RV turnout.
In other words, the pre-election polls underestimated voter turnout by 6%. Newly registered Democrats came out in force.

New Voters
According to the 1988-2004 National Exit Polls, the Democrats won new voters by an average 14% margin.
In [link:www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=108&topic_id=134587&mesg_id=134587|2008], Obama won new voters by approximately 71-27%; in 2004, Kerry won new voters by approximately 57-41%.

The calculations below confirm that new voters comprise the difference (RV – LV) between registered (RV) and likely voter (LV) sample-size.
The Obama / McCain share of the difference was 73.3-26.7%, closely matching the 71-27% Final NEP new voter share.
The Kerry / Bush share of the difference was 57.8-42.2%, closely matching the 57-41% Prelim NEP new voter share.

The number of new voters is a function of voter mortality and turnout. It is estimated by the simple formula:
New voters = current election votes cast – (prior election votes cast – voter mortality) * prior-voter turnout

Applying the new voter formula based on 2008 votes cast (135.43m, estimate) and the 2004 votes cast (125.74m),
Given ~1.16% annual voter mortality (~5.83m over 4 years) and an approximate [link:tinyurl.com/b6v5sj|98% turnout] of 2004 election voters in 2008:
New 2008 voters ~= 17.9 million = (135.43 – (125.74 – 5.83)* 0.98) = (135.43 –119.91*.98)
New Voters recorded ~= 17.4m = 17.9 * (131.37/135.43) (based on total recorded vote).
According to the Final 2008 NEP, there were 17.1m new voters (13% of 131.37).

Applying the new voter formula based on 2004 votes cast (125.736m) and 2000 votes cast (110.826m), given ~1.19% average annual voter mortality
New 2004 voters ('DNV' 2000) = 22.3 million = 125.736 – (110.826 – 5.28)* 0.98 = 125.74 – 105.55*.98 = 125.74 - 103.44

There were approximately 3.8 million returning Nader voters. Kerry won 2.4 million (64%); Bush had 0.7 million (17%).
According to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, Kerry won 13.4 million new voters (57% of 'DNV'); Bush had 9.6 million (41%).
Of the 26.1 million new and returning Nader voters, Kerry won 15.8m and Bush 10.1m — a 5.7 million Kerry margin.
Since Bush won the official recorded vote by 3 million, almost 8.7 million more returning-Gore voters than Bush voters had to have defected.
But the 12:22am National Exit Poll indicated that 10% of returning Bush voters defected to Kerry, and 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush.

Final National Exit Poll
The Final NEP is always forced to match the recorded vote count.
In 2004, the returning Bush/Gore [link:tinyurl.com/642yxd|43/37%] voter mix was impossible.
In 2006, the returning [link:tinyurl.com/ceb4ur|49/43%] Bush/Kerry voter mix was implausible.
In 2008, the returning [link:tinyurl.com/6uy8nc|46/37%] Bush/Kerry voter mix was impossible.

2000
Gore won by [link:tinyurl.com/ckdknc|51.0–50.46m] (48.38–47.87%).
The Census reported [link:tinyurl.com/5krbvx|110.8] million votes cast, but just 105.4m were recorded.
The Final 2000 NEP was forced to match the recorded vote.
Approximately [link:tinyurl.com/brec5n|4 million] of the 5.4 million uncounted votes were for Gore.
Therefore he won the [link:tinyurl.com/b2epyd|True Vote] by 55–52m.
The election was stolen.

2004
Bush won the [link:tinyurl.com/ckdknc|recorded vote] by 62.0–59.0m (50.73-48.27%)
Kerry won the [link:tinyurl.com/5vg6ss|unadjusted] (WPE) state exit poll aggregate by 52-47%.
He led the preliminary NEP (12:22am, [link:tinyurl.com/5lsx6e|13047] respondents) by 51-48%.
He led despite the implausible NEP 41/39% returning Bush/Gore voter mix.

The Final NEP ([link:tinyurl.com/5lsx6e|13660] sample) was '[link:tinyurl.com/6ebjo8|forced] to match' the 50.7–48.3% Bush [link:tinyurl.com/ckdknc|recorded margin].
To force the match in the Final NEP:
a) Bush shares of returning and new voters were increased,
b) The returning Bush/Gore voter mix was changed to an [link:tinyurl.com/5lsx6e|impossible] 43/37%.
The mix indicates an impossible 52.6m (43% of 122.3) returning Bush 2000 voters.

Bush only had 50.46 million recorded votes in 2000.
Approximately 2.5m died and 2.5m did not vote in 2004.
So there were at most 45.5 million returning Bush voters.
The Final overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 7 million.
Kerry won the [link:tinyurl.com/b2epyd|True Vote] by 8–10 million.
The election was stolen.

2006 Midterms
Democrats won all 120 pre-election Generic polls.
The final trend line [link:tinyurl.com/y4a76k|projection] was a 56.43–41.67 Democratic landslide.
At 7pm, the NEP indicated a [link:tinyurl.com/aq23m3|55]–43% landslide.
The returning Bush/Kerry voter mix was [link:tinyurl.com/ahy5p8|47/45%].

The Final was forced to match the [link:tinyurl.com/b4yaua|52]–46% recorded vote.
To force the match:
a) the Bush share of returning and new voters were increased,
b) the returning voter mix was changed to an implausible [link:tinyurl.com/ceb4ur|49/43%].
The Democratic margin was cut in half.
The [link:tinyurl.com/44txsx|landslide was denied].

2008
Obama won the recorded vote by 69.4–59.9m (52.9–45.6%)
Obama led the final pre-election [link:tinyurl.com/cbzayo|registered voter] polls by 52–39%.
The Final 2008 NEP was forced to match the recorded vote.

To force the match, the Final indicated an [link:tinyurl.com/6uy8nc|impossible] 46/37% Bush/Kerry returning voter mix.
The mix overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 4 million — assuming zero fraud in 2004.
It overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 9 million — assuming the [link:tinyurl.com/5vg6ss|unadjusted] (WPE) 2004 state exit poll aggregate (Kerry by 52–47%).

The Final indicated that an impossible 5.2 million (4% of 131.37m) were returning third-party voters.
There were [link:tinyurl.com/ckdknc|only 1.2 million] third-party voters in 2004.

The Final indicated there were 60.4 million (46% of 131.37m) returning Bush voters.
Bush only had 62.0 million votes in 2004 (assuming no fraud).
Approximately 3 million died and another 3 million did not vote in 2008.
Therefore there were approximately 56 million returning Bush voters.
Assuming no fraud in 2004, the Final NEP mix overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 4 million.
On the other hand, assuming that Kerry won by 52–47%, the Final NEP mix overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 9 million.
Obama's True Vote margin was cut in half.
The [link:tinyurl.com/6p3kkx|landslide was denied].

In summary:

[div style="width: 61.25em; max-width: 60.25em;border: 3px solid; font-style: italic;line-height: 1.6;padding: .85em 1.0em"]If Final NEP weightings indicate a mathematically impossible number of returning voters, then simple logic dictates the weightings are impossible.
Since impossible weightings were necessary to match to the official vote count, then the official vote count must also be impossible.
Since the vote count is impossible, then all demographic category cross tabs must use incorrect weights and/or vote shares to match the count.[/quote]

Census Voting Statistics(in millions)
[div align="right"style="clear:left;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.5"][div style="clear:left;float:left;width:14em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]1984[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]1988[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]1992[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]1996[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]2000[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]2004[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.5"][/quote]
[div align="left"style="clear:left;float:left;width:14em"]Total Recorded Votes
Dem
Rep
Other

Registered Voters
Change from prior year
4-year mortality
New Registered

Total votes cast
Change from prior year
4-year mortality
Percentages
Voting age, 18+
Registered voters
Change from prior year

Uncounted — % of Cast
Uncounted Votes
–Democrat (75%)
–Republican (25%)
–Net Democratic[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]92.03
37.58
54.46
0.00

116.11
11.07
6.04
16.62

101.88
8.81
5.30

59.94
87.75
9.47

9.66
9.85
7.38
2.46
4.92[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]91.60
41.81
48.89
0.90

118.59
2.48
6.07
8.52

102.22
0.35
5.23

57.40
86.20
0.34

10.40
10.63
7.97
2.66
5.31[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]103.75
44.91
39.10
19.74

126.58
7.99
6.38
14.06

113.87
11.64
5.74

61.32
89.96
11.39

8.88
10.12
7.59
2.53
5.06[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]91.27
45.59
37.82
7.87

127.66
1.08
6.33
7.46

105.02
-8.85
5.21

54.23
82.26
-7.77

13.09
13.74
10.31
3.44
6.87[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]105.42
51.00
50.46
3.28

129.55
1.89
6.32
8.22

110.83
5.81
5.41

54.70
85.55
5.53

4.88
5.41
4.06
1.35
2.70[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]122.30
59.03
62.04
1.23

142.07
12.52
6.82
18.84

125.74
14.91
6.04

58.30
88.51
13.46

2.74
3.44
2.58
0.86
1.72[/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 2.0"][/quote]

Uncounted Votes
[div align="center"style="clear:left;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.5"]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:8em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:10em"]Census-Reported[link:tinyurl.com/cq9j7j|Votes Cast][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:1em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:10em"]States-Recorded[b][link:tinyurl.com/ckdknc|Votes Counted][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:1em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:10em"]Votes[br]Uncounted[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:8em"]2008
2004
2000[/quote][div style="float:left;width:10em"]na
125.74
110.83[/quote][div style="float:left;width:1em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:10em"]131.37
122.29
105.42[/quote][div style="float:left;width:1em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:10em"]na
3.45
5.41[/quote]
[/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
Late Votes
[div align="right"style="clear:left;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.6"]
[div align="left"style="clear:left;float:left;width:8em"]2008
Election Day
Late
Total

2004
Election Day
Late
Total

2000
Election Day
Late
Total[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Total
121.21
10.16
131.37

Total
116.7
5.6
122.3

Total
102.6
2.8
105.4[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Obama
63.4
6.01
69.46

Kerry
56.4
2.6
59.0

Gore
49.5
1.5
51.00[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]McCain
56.1
3.81
59.94

Bush
59.8
2.2
62.0

Bush
49.3
1.2
50.46[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Other
1.64
0.34
1.98

Other
0.40
0.80
1.20

Other
3.8
0.1
3.95[/quote][div style="float:left;width:7em"]Obama
[div style="width:3.7em"]52.3%
59.2%[/quote]52.87%

Kerry
[div style="width:3.7em"]48.3%
46.9%[/quote]48.27%

Gore
[div style="width:3.7em"]48.2%
53.6%[/quote]48.38%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]McCain
46.3%
37.5%
45.62%

Bush
51.3%
39.4%
50.73%

Bush
48.1%
42.9%
47.87%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Other
1.4%
3.3%
1.51%

Other
0.4%
13.7%
1.00%

Other
3.7%
3.5%
3.75%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:3em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:7em"]Dem Margin
+6.0
+21.7



–3.0
+ 7.5



+0.1
+10.7
[/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
2000 Voter Mortality
[div align="center"style="clear:left;width:78em;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.3"]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:10.5em;font-weight:bold;color:blue;border-bottom: 1px solid"]Mortality TableAgeAnnualRate[/quote][div style="float:left;width:3em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;font-weight:bold;color:blue"]NEP[br]Age[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;font-weight:bold;color:blue"]Annual[br]Rate[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;font-weight:bold;color:blue"]Voter[br]Mort.[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;font-weight:bold;color:blue"]Votes[br]Cast[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;font-weight:bold;color:blue;border-bottom: 1px solid"][br]Mix[/quote][div style="float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:15em;font-weight:bold;color:blue;border-bottom: 1px solid"]Final 2000 NEP[br][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Gore[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Bush[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Other[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:15em;font-weight:bold;color:blue;border-bottom: 1px solid"]Total Voter Deaths[br][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Gore[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Bush[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Other[/quote][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:4em"]
15-24
25-45
45-64
65+ [/quote][div style="float:left;width:6.5em"]
0.09%
0.18%
0.71%
5.07%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:3em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]
18-29
30-44
45-59
60+ 

Total



Mort.

Deaths
4-year
Annual[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]
0.10%
0.20%
0.60%
4.00%

1.22%



Total

5.38
4.88%
1.22%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]
0.019
0.064
0.199
1.064

1.346



Gore

2.71
50.37%
1.26%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]
18.84
32.13
33.24
26.59

110.8



Bush

2.55
47.38%
1.20%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]
17%
29%
30%
24%

100%
Total


Other

0.121
2.25%
0.84%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]
48%
48%
48%
51%

48.72%
53.98[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]
46%
49%
49%
47%

48.01%
53.20[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]
6%
3%
3%
2%

3.27%
3.62[/quote][div style="float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]
0.036
0.123
0.383
2.170

2.712
5.02%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]
0.035
0.126
0.391
2.000

2.551
4.80%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]
0.005
0.008
0.024
0.085

0.121
3.35%[/quote]
[/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 2.0"][/quote]
2008Final Pre-election Polls — RV and LV
[div style="clear:left;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.5"]The Obama:McCain'[b style="background: #FFEC8B"]RV minus LV'shares are 73.3–26.7%, closely matching post-election, Final exit poll'New Voter'shares, [link:tinyurl.com/6uy8nc|71–27%].

The 1052 difference — i.e. the 3-poll RV samples (8581) exclusive their LV subsets (7529) — comprised [b style="background: #FFEC8B"]12.3% of the total RV sample.
Assuming 3% uncounted votes, there were approximately 17.6m newly-registered and other new voters (i.e., 'DNV' 2004) — 13% of 135.43m.

[div align="center"style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"][div align="left"style="float:left"]RV
[link:tinyurl.com/5zhf42|Gallup]
[link:tinyurl.com/c26g6o|ABC]
[link:tinyurl.com/crwm6v|Pew]

Total


LV
Gallup
ABC
Pew

Total[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Sample
2824
2762
2995

8581


Subset
2472
2470
2587

7529[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Date
[link:tinyurl.com/5gsmbf|11/02]
11/02
11/01

100.0%


Date
11/02
11/02
11/01

100.0%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Obama
53
54
50

52.27%


Obama
53
53
49

51.63%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]McCain
40
41
39

39.97%


McCain
42
44
42

42.66%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Spread
13
13
11

12.3%


Spread
11
9
7

9.0%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Other




[link:tinyurl.com/ckdknc|1.51]%


Other




[link:tinyurl.com/ckdknc|1.51]%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Undecided




6.06%


Undecided




4.79%[/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.5"][/quote]Pre-Election Final RV and LV Polls
[div align="center"style="clear:left;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.5"]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:15em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]Registered Voters (RV)[/quote][div style="float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:15em;;border-bottom: 1px solid"]Likely Voters (LV subset)[/quote]
[div align="left"style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"]
Gallup
ABC
Pew

Total
Share[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Total
2627
2623
2666

7916
92.3%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Obama
1497
1491
1498

4486
52.3%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]McCain
1130
1132
1168

3430
40.0%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Total
2348
2396
2355

7099
94.3%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Obama
1310
1309
1268

3887
51.6%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]McCain
1038
1087
1087

3212
42.7%[/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
[div align="center"style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:15em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]RV–LV[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:9em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:15em;;border-bottom: 1px solid;color:blue;font-weight: bold"]"RV minus LV" Voters[/quote]
[div align="left"style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"]
Gallup
ABC
Pew

Total[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Total
278
228
311

817[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Obama
187
182
230

599[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]McCain
91
46
82

218[/quote][div style="float:left;width:9em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Obama
67.1%
80.0%
73.8%

[div style="width:5em;background:#FFEC8B"]73.3%[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]McCain
32.9%
20.0%
26.2%

[div style="width:5em;background:#FFEC8B"]26.7%[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Spread
34.3%
60.0%
47.6%

46.6%[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.5"][/quote]
[div align="left"style="clear:left;float:left;width:18.5em;font-size: 12px;font-weight: bold"]Post-Election Preliminary NEP[/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:9.0em;font-weight: bold;color:blue"]‘DNV’ Voters[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em;font-weight: bold;background:#BEFFFF"]?[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em;font-weight: bold;background:#BEFFFF"]?[/quote][div style="float:left;width:6.5em"][/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:37.5em"][/quote]
[div align="left"style="clear:left;float:left;width:18.5em;font-size: 12px;font-weight: bold"]Post-Election2:34pFinal NEP[/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:9.5em;font-weight: bold"][link:tinyurl.com/6uy8nc|‘DNV’ Voters][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em"]71%[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em;"]27%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:6.5em"][/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:37.5em"][/quote]
[/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 2.0"][/quote]
2008 Undecided Voter Allocation
[div style="clear:left;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.5"]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:10em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:15em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]Pre-election Poll (%)[/quote][div style="float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:7em"][/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:15em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]Undecided Voters Allocated[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:10em"]2008
Gallup
IBD
Zogby
Dem Corp
Ipsos
Pew

Average


[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Obama
53
47.3
51
51
50
49

50.22


[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]McCain
42
42.8
44
44
42
42

42.8


[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Spread
11
4.5
7
7
8
7

7.42


[/quote][div style="float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em"]








Polls Avg
Diff
UVA[/quote][div style="float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Obama
55
51.5
54.1
53
53
52

53.10
50.22
2.88
62.9%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]McCain
44
44.3
42.7
44
46
46

44.50
42.80
1.70
37.1%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Spread
11
7.2
11.4
9
7
6

8.60
7.42
1.18
25.8%[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;font-family:Verdana,Times New Roman;Verdana;font-size:12px;font-weight:bold"]UVA 83.7% to Obama[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:10em"]Gallup
IBD
Zogby
DemCorp[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]50.6[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]43.2[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]7.2[/quote][div style="float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em"]
Polls Avg
Diff
UVA[/quote][div style="float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]53.4
50.6
2.8
83.7%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]43.8
43.2
0.5
16.3%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]9.7
7.2
2.4
67.4%[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;font-family:Verdana,Times New Roman;Verdana;font-size:12px;font-weight:bold"]UVA 57.1% to McCain[/quote]
[div align="left"style="clear:left;float:left;width:10em"]Ipsos
Pew

[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]49.5[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]42.0[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]7.3[/quote][div style="float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em"]
Polls Avg
Diff
UVA[/quote][div style="float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]52.5
49.5
3.0
42.9%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]46.0
42.0
4.0
57.1%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]6.5
7.3
-0.8
-14.2%[/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 2.0"][/quote]
2004 Final Pre-election Polls
[br][b]The Kerry/Bush vote split of the difference (1335) in sample between the RV and LV subset ([b style="background: #FFEC8B"]57.8–42.2%)
matched the [link:tinyurl.com/642yxd|12:22am Preliminary] National Exit Poll'New Voter'shares: 57–41–2%.

The 1769 difference — i.e. 5-poll RV samples (10310) exclusive their LV subsets (8541) — comprised 17.2% of the total (RV) sample.
In 2004, there were approximately 21.4 million newly registered and other new voters (i.e., 'DNV' 2000) — 17% of 125.7m votes cast.
Of the 21.4 million, approximately 13.8m (11% of 125.74) were first-time voters. Kerry won 55% of first-timers.
The average pre-election poll projected turnout of registered voters was 82.8% (117m of 142m registered).
The census reported an [link:tinyurl.com/cq9j7j|88.5%] voter turnout (125.7m of 142.1m registered).
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.4"][/quote][div align="center"style="clear:left;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.3"][div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"][br][/quote][div style="float:left;width:20em;border-bottom: 1px solid"][br]Actual Poll (%)[/quote][div style="float:left;width:2em"][br][/quote][div style="float:left;width:15em;border-bottom: 1px solid"][div style="float:left;width:5em"]0.75[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]0.25[/quote][div style="clear:left"]Undecided Voters Allocated[/quote][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"]RV
1-Nov
31-Oct
31-Oct
31-Oct
30-Oct




LV
1-Nov
31-Oct
31-Oct
31-Oct
30-Oct[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Poll
CBS
Fox
Gallup
ABC
Pew

Total
Average

Poll
CBS
Fox
Gallup
ABC
Pew

Total
Average[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Sample
1125
1400
1866
3511
2408

10310
2062

Sample
939
1200
1573
2904
1925

8541
1708[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Kerry
46
48
48
48
46


47.2

Kerry
47
48
49
48
48


48[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Bush
47
45
46
47
45


46

Bush
49
46
49
49
51


48.8[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em;max-width:4.25em;padding-right: 0.75em"]Spread
-1
3
2
1
1


1.2

Spread
-2
2
0
-1
-3


-0.8[/quote][div style="float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Kerry
50.50
52.50
51.75
51.00
52.00


51.55

Kerry
49.25
51.75
49.75
49.50
48.00


49.65[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Bush
48.50
46.50
47.25
48.00
47.00


47.45

Bush
49.75
47.25
49.25
49.50
51.00


49.35[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em;max-width:4.5em;padding-right: 0.5em"]Spread
2.0
6.0
4.5
3.0
5.0


4.1

Spread
-0.5
4.5
0.5
0.0
-3.0


0.3[/quote][div style="float:left;width:10em"]








Projected
Turnout
83.5%
85.7%
84.3%
82.7%
79.9%


82.8%[/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
[div align="left"style="font-family:Verdana,Arial;font-size:12px;font-weight:bold"][b style="background: #FFEC8B"]Pre-election Polls Final RV and LV Samples[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:15em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]Registered Voters (RV)[/quote][div style="float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:15em;;border-bottom: 1px solid"]Likely Voters (LV subset)[/quote]
[div align="left"style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"]
CBS
Fox
Gallup
ABC
Pew

Total
[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Total
1047
1302
1754
3335
2192

9629
93.4%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Kerry
518
672
896
1685
1108

4878
47.3%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Bush
529
630
858
1650
1084

4751
46.1%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:2em;"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;"]Total
901
1128
1542
2817
1906

8294
97.1%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;"]Kerry
441
576
771
1394
924

4106
48.1%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;"]Bush
460
552
771
1423
982

4188
49.0%[/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote][div style="line-height: 1.4"]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:15em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]RV – LV[Less Likely Voters][/quote][div style="float:left;width:9em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:14em;;border-bottom: 1px solid;color:blue;font-weight: bold"]"RV minus LV" Voters[/quote]
[div align="left"style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"]
CBS
Fox
Gallup
ABC
Pew

Total[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Total
145
174
213
519
286

1335[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Kerry
76
96
125
291
184

772[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Bush
69
78
88
227
102

563[/quote][div style="float:left;width:9em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Kerry
52.6%
55.2%
58.8%
56.2%
64.3%

[div style="width:5em;background: #FFEC8B"][b]57.8%[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Bush
47.4%
44.8%
41.2%
43.8%
35.7%

[div style="width:5em;background: #FFEC8B"]42.2%[/quote][/quote][div align="lrft"style="float:left;width:4em"]Spread
5.2%
10.3%
17.6%
12.4%
28.7%

15.6%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:1.5em"][/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:44em;max-width:45em;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 11px"][div style="background: #E5E5E5;border-top: 1px solid;border-right: 1px solid;padding-left: 1.0em"]• If Final NEP weightings indicate a [link:tinyurl.com/642yxd|mathematically impossible] number ofreturning voters, then simple logic dictates the [b style="color:maroon"]weightings are impossible.
• Since impossible weightings were necessary to match to the official vote count, then the official [b style="color:maroon"]vote count must also be impossible.
• Since the vote count is impossible, then all demographic category cross tabs must use [b]incorrect [b style="color:maroon"]weights and/or vote shares to match the count.[/quote]
Polled Pre Vote: 10,310. 'RV-LV' sample: CBS + Gallup + ABC + FOX + Pew[/quote][div style="clear:left;width:86em;line-height: 0.5"][/quote]
[div align="left"style="clear:left;float:left;width:18.5em;font-size: 12px;font-weight: bold"]Post-Election 12:22a Prelim NEP[/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:9.0em;font-weight: bold"][link:tinyurl.com/6bxpqm|‘DNV’ Voters][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em;font-weight: bold;background:#BEFFFF"]57%[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em;font-weight: bold;background:#BEFFFF"]41%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5.25em"][/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:44em;max-width:45em"]Polled Exit Vote: 13,046. Shares = 3.4m Dem margin(17% DNV == 21.4m)[/quote]
[div align="left"style="clear:left;float:left;width:18.5em;font-size: 12px;font-weight: bold"]Post-Election1:25pFinal NEP[/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:9.0em;font-weight: bold"][link:tinyurl.com/642yxd|‘DNV’ Voters][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em;font-weight: bold;color:maroon"]54%[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em;font-weight: bold;color:maroon"]45%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5.25em"][/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:44.5em;max-width:45.5em"]'[link:tinyurl.com/5vg6ss|Forced]' to [link:tinyurl.com/bcxp99|match] the vote-count = Dem margin dis-count,1.5m votes  [link:tinyurl.com/chj65b|1] [link:tinyurl.com/d92bob|2] [/quote]
[/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.3"][/quote]NATIONAL EXIT POLL
[div align="right"style="clear:left;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.3"][div style="float:left;width:11em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:41em;border-bottom: 2px solid"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:10em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:19em;border-bottom: 2px solid"][/quote]
[div align="left"style="clear:left;float:left;width:10em"]CATEGORY

Average
Total Votes

Max
Min

Gender
Party-ID
Vote Prev Electn
Region
Education

Race
Age
Income
Ideology
Religion

Military
Decided
Location[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Kerry

50.85%
62.19

51.63%
50.08%

50.78%
51.07%
51.20%
50.53%
50.43%

50.98%
50.26%
51.07%
50.18%
50.78%

51.20%
51.23%
51.40%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Bush

47.88%
58.55

48.51%
47.24%

48.22%
47.85%
47.50%
47.95%
48.18%

47.61%
47.69%
47.75%
48.60%
48.01%

47.62%
47.93%
47.47%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Other

1.27%
1.55

1.85%
0.69%

1.00%
1.08%
1.30%
1.52%
1.39%

1.41%
2.05%
1.18%
1.22%
1.21%

1.18%
0.84%
1.13%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:7em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Kerry

47.95%
58.64

48.62%
47.29%

47.78%
47.89%
48.48%
48.24%
47.82%

47.81%
47.96%
48.13%
47.25%
47.99%

48.38%
47.50%
48.14%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Bush

51.08%
62.47

51.62%
50.54%

51.22%
51.22%
51.11%
51.08%
51.24%

50.99%
51.28%
51.02%
51.54%
50.94%

50.44%
51.22%
50.73%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Other

0.97%
1.19

1.46%
0.48%

1.00%
0.89%
0.41%
0.68%
0.94%

1.20%
0.76%
0.85%
1.21%
1.07%

1.18%
1.28%
1.13%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:14em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Obama

52.69%
69.22

53.13%
52.25%

52.71%
52.67%
52.62%
52.76%
52.31%

52.82%
52.29%
52.96%
52.56%
53.07%

52.65%
52.67%
52.88%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]McCain

45.57%
59.86

46.14%
44.99%

45.35%
45.14%
45.94%
45.56%
45.93%

45.57%
45.71%
44.99%
45.88%
45.58%

45.50%
45.81%
45.41%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Other

1.74%
2.29

2.24%
1.25%

1.94%
2.19%
1.44%
1.68%
1.76%

1.61%
2.00%
2.05%
1.56%
1.35%

1.85%
1.52%
1.71%[/quote]
[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.5"]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:11em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:4em"][br][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:15em"][b]2004 [b style="color:blue"]PRELIMINARY NEP1% Margin of Error[/quote][div style="float:left;width:7em"][br][br][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:15em"][b]2004 [b style="color:maroon"]FINAL EXIT POLL'forced' to match the count[/quote][div style="float:left;width:14em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:15em"][b]2008 [b style="color:maroon"]FINAL EXIT POLL'forced' to match the count[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:10em"][b]Vote Prev Electn[/quote][div style="float:left;width:1em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:4em;border-bottom: 1px solid"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:15em;font-size:11px;border-bottom: 1px solid"]12:22am ( [link:tinyurl.com/6ebjo8|13,047] )[/quote][div style="float:left;width:3em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:4em;border-bottom: 1px solid"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:15em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]1:25pm ( [link:tinyurl.com/642yxd|13,660] )[/quote][div style="float:left;width:3em"][/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:7em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:4em;border-bottom: 1px solid"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:15em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]( [link:tinyurl.com/6uy8nc|17,836] )[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"]Voted
'00
DNV
Gore
Bush
Other

Share
[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Votes
'04
20.79
47.70
50.14
3.67

[/quote][div style="float:left;width:1em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:4em"]Weight

17%
39%
41%
3%

100%[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]Kerry

57%
91%
10%
64%

51.20%[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]Bush

41%
8%
90%
17%

47.50%[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]Other

2%
1%
0%
19%

1.30%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:3em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:4em"]Weight

17%
[b style="color:Maroon"]37%
43%
3%

100%[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]Kerry

54%
90%
9%
71%

48.48%[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]Bush

45%
10%
91%
21%

51.11%[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]Other

1%
0%
0%
8%

0.41%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Voted
'04
DNV
Kerry
Bush
Other[/quote][div style="float:left;width:4em"]Weight

13%
37%
46%
4%

100%[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]Obama

71%
89%
17%
66%

52.62%[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]McCain

27%
10%
82%
24%

45.94%[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]Other

2%
1%
1%
10%

1.44%[/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]2004 TRUE VOTE
[div align="right"style="clear:left;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.5"][div align="left"style="float:left;width:5em"]Voted[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:6.5em"]2000[/quote][div style="float:left;width:16.0em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Alive[/quote][div style="float:left;width:12em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:1em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:21em;color: blue;font-weight: bold;border-bottom: 1px solid"]Calculated 2004 True Vote[/quote]
[div align="left"style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"]'00
DNV
Gore
Bush
Other

Total[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:6.5em"][link:tinyurl.com/ckdknc|Recorded]

51.00
50.46
3.95

105.42[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:6em"][link:tinyurl.com/cd6kfw|Uncounted]

4.04
1.18
0.16

5.38[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em"]Cast

55.04
51.64
4.11

110.8[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Deaths

2.69
2.52
0.2

5.41[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]'04

52.36
49.12
3.91

105.39[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Turnout

97%
97%
97%

100.1[/quote][div style="float:left;width:7em"]Voted
23.48
50.80
47.66
3.80

125.74
Cast

2004 OfficialVote Count[/quote][div style="float:left;width:1em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:6em"]Weight
18.70%
40.40%
37.90%
3.02%

100%
125.74

122.3
[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em"]Kerry
57%
91%
10%
64%

53.14%
66.81

59.03
48.27%[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em"]Bush
41%
8%
90%
17%

45.51%
57.23

62.04
50.73%[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em"]Other
2%
1%
0%
19%

1.35%
1.70

1.23
1.00%[/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]2008 TRUE VOTE
[div align="right"style="clear:left;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.5"][div align="left"style="float:left;width:5em"]Voted[/quote][div style="float:left;width:6.5em"]Unadjusted[/quote][div style="float:left;width:16em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Alive[/quote][div style="float:left;width:12em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:1em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:21em;color: blue;font-weight: bold;border-bottom: 1px solid"]Calculated 2008 True Vote[/quote]
[div align="left"style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"]'04
DNV
Kerry
Bush
Other

Total[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:6.5em"]'[link:tinyurl.com/5vg6ss|04 Exit Poll]

63.59
57.47
1.23

122.30[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:6em"]Uncounted

1.79
1.62
0.03

3.45[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em"]Cast

65.38
59.09
1.26

125.74[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Deaths

3.14
2.84
0.06

6.04[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]'08

62.25
56.26
1.2

119.7[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Turnout

97%
97%
97%

113.7[/quote][div style="float:left;width:7em"]Voted
19.32
60.38
54.57
1.17

135.43
Cast

2008 Official[br]Vote Count[/quote][div style="float:left;width:1em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:6em"]Weight
14.30%
44.60%
40.30%
0.86%

100%
135.43

131.37[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em"]Obama
71%
89%
17%
66%

57.22%
77.50

69.46
52.87%[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em"]McCain
27%
9%
82%
24%

41.11%
55.68

59.94
45.62%[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em"]Other
2%
2%
1%
10%

1.67%
2.26

1.98
1.51%[/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.1"][/quote]
1988-2008 SUMMARY
[div align="center"style="clear:left;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.5"]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"]'88-'08[/quote][div style="float:left;width:1.5em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:14em"]Calculated True Vote[br][div align="left"style="float:left;width:4.5em;border-top: 1px solid"]Dem[/quote][div style="float:left;width:4.5em;border-top: 1px solid"]Rep[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:4.5em;border-top: 1px solid"][b]Margin[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:3em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:14em"]Recorded Vote-Count[div align="left"style="float:left;width:4.5em;border-top: 1px solid"]Dem[/quote][div style="float:left;width:4.5em;border-top: 1px solid"]Rep[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:4.5em;border-top: 1px solid"][b]Margin[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:3em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:15em"]Unadj State Exit Poll Aggreg[div align="left"style="float:left;width:5em;border-top: 1px solid"]Dem[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em;border-top: 1px solid"]Rep[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em;border-top: 1px solid"][b]Margin[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:4.0em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:7em;max-width:7em"][link:tinyurl.com/bxdw6k|WPE][div style="float:left;width:7em;max-width:7em;border-top: 1px solid"]Recorded-EP[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:1em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:7em;max-width:7em"]Margins Diff[br][div style="float:left;width:7em;max-width:7em;border-top: 1px solid"]TrueVote-EP[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width:3em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:7em"]True Vote[br][div style="float:left;width:7em;border-top: 1px solid"]Margin (mil)[/quote][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"]
Avg-'08
Avg-'04

2008
2004
2000

1996
1992
1988[/quote][div style="float:left;width:1.5em"][/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:4.5em"]
51.82%
50.69%

57.5%
53.2%
49.4%

51.9%
48.0%
50.7%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:4.5em"]
42.54%
42.88%

40.8%
45.4%
46.0%

39.3%
35.0%
48.1%[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:4.5em"]
9.29%
7.87%

16.7%
7.8%
3.3%

12.6%
13.0%
2.6%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:3.5em"][/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:4.5em"]
47.90%
46.91%

52.9%
48.3%
48.4%

49.2%
43.0%
45.6%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:4.5em"]
45.96%
46.03%

45.6%
50.7%
47.9%

40.7%
37.4%
53.4%[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:4.5em"]
1.94%
0.88%

7.2%
-2.5%
0.5%

8.5%
5.6%
-7.7%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:3.5em"][/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:5em"]

48.82%

na
52.0%
49.4%

50.2%
45.7%
46.8%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]

44.12%

na
47.0%
46.9%

39.8%
34.7%
52.2%[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]

4.70%


4.9%
2.5%

10.4%
11.0%
-5.3%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:4.5em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:7em;max-width:7em"]

-3.82%


-7.4%
-2.0%

-1.9%
-5.4%
-2.4%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:1em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:7em;max-width:5.0em;padding-right: 2.0em"]

3.17%


2.9%
0.8%

2.2%
2.0%
8.0%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:3em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;max-width:5.75em;width:7.0em;padding-right: 1.25em"]
11.11 (D)
8.81 (D)

22.60 (D)
9.79 (D)
4.24 (D)

10.50 (D)
14.82 (D)
2.67 (D)[/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 2.0"][/quote]
TRUE VOTE CALCULATION
[div align="left"style="clear:left;margin-left: 4em;margin-top: 1em;width:44em;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 16px;font-weight: normal"][b][link:tinyurl.com/69lz6m|Election Calculator] — 1988 – 2008
[div align="left"style="clear:left;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.4"]
True Vote Calculations: 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008 — incl Sensitivity Analyses: Turnout, Mortality, Uncounted
Introduction
Summary Statistics, 1988 - 2008
OH, CT, NY, PA, CA, NJ, FL
Graphs
2004 Pre-election polls, Exit polls and the True Vote
States 2008
2008 Final National Exit Poll - 35 categoories
2004 Edison-Mitofsky Exit Poll Estimates: WPE, Best Geo, Composite
2004 The Final 5.6 Million Recorded Votes
Historical Final National Exit Poll — Demographic Trend and Correlation Analysis
1988-2004 Recorded State Vote and Exit Poll Shares
U.S. Census: Reported Voting in Presidential Election Years by Region, Race, Hispanic Origin, Sex, and Age – 1964 - 2004
Links: Polling Analysis, Census Data, 2000/2004 County Vote Database, National Exit Poll Timeline,Edison-Mitofsky 2004 Report, State Exit Polls (GEO Best Estimate), Election Incident Reporting Systsem (EIRS)
[/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 2.0"][/quote]
[div align="left"style="font-family:Courier New,Verdana;font-size:18px;font-weight:bold"]REGRESSION ANALYSIS: Kerry Vote share vs. Registered Voter Turnout[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.4"][div style="float:left;width:8em"][b]Two-party
y=.15+.41x
Kerry
47.8%
48.2%
48.6%
48.9%
49.0%
49.4%
49.9%
50.3%
50.7%
51.1%
51.3%
51.5%
51.9%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:8em"]

Turnout
80%
81%
82%
82.8%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
88.5%
89%
90%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:6em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:8em"]75% UVA
y=.012+.581x
Kerry
47.7%
48.3%
48.8%
49.3%
49.4%
50.0%
50.6%
51.2%
51.7%
52.3%
52.6%
52.9%
53.5%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]

Turnout
80%
81%
82%
82.8%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
88.5%
89%
90%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div align="left"style="float:left;width:30em"]





Pre-election (5-LV poll) projected turnout






Post-election Census-[link:tinyurl.com/cq9j7j|reported] turnout

[/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 2.0"][/quote]
2000 Final Pre-election Polls
[div style="clear:left;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.5"]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:6.5em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:15em;border-bottom: 1px solid"][br]Actual Poll (%)[/quote][div style="float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:15em;border-bottom: 1px solid"][div style="float:left;width:5em"]0.60[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]0.40[/quote][br]Undecided Voters Allocated[/quote]
[div align="center"style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"]RV
11/2
11/5
11/5




LV
11/2
11/5
11/5[/quote][div style="float:left;width:6.5em"]Poll
Newsweek
Pew
Gallup

Total


Poll
Newsweek
Pew
Gallup

Total[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em"]Gore
44
45
46

45


Gore
43
43
45

43.67[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em"]Bush
41
41
44

42


Bush
45
45
47

45.67[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em"]Spread
3
4
2

3


Spread
-2
-2
-2

-2[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em"]Gore
52.4
52.8
51.4

52.2


Gore
49.6
49.6
49.2

49.47[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em"]Bush
46.6
46.2
47.6

46.8


Bush
49.4
49.4
49.8

49.53[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:5em"]Spread
5.8
6.6
3.8

5.4


Spread
0.2
0.2
-0.6

-0.07[/quote]
[/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 2.0"][/quote]
2000-2008 Final Pre-election Poll Summary
[div align="right"style="clear:left;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.5"]
[div align="right"style="clear:left;float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:7em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:13em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]RV Polls[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:13em;border-bottom: 1px solid"]LV Polls[/quote]
[div align="right"style="clear:left;float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]
2000
2004
2008[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]Dem
45.00
47.20
52.33[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]Rep
42.00
46.00
40.00[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]Spread
3.00
1.80
12.33[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:3em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]Dem
43.67
47.20
52.00[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]Rep
45.67
47.00
43.00[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]Spread
-2.00
0.20
9.00[/quote][div align="right"style="clear:left;line-height: 0.5"][/quote]
[div align="right"style="clear:left;float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:10em"]UVA Projected[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:3em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:10em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"][/quote]
[div align="right"style="clear:left;float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]2000
2004
2008[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]52.20
51.55
56.96[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]46.80
47.45
41.54[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]5.40
4.10
15.42[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:3em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]49.47
49.65
54.63[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]49.53
49.35
43.88[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]-0.07
0.30
10.75[/quote][div align="right"style="clear:left;line-height: 0.5"][/quote]
[div align="right"style="clear:left;float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:10em"]Recorded[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:3em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:10em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"][/quote]
[div align="right"style="clear:left;float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]2000
2004
2008[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]48.87
48.27
52.87[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]48.38
50.73
45.62[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]0.49
-2.46
7.25[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:3em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]48.87
48.27
52.87[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]48.38
50.73
45.62[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]0.49
-2.46
7.25[/quote][div align="right"style="clear:left;line-height: 0.5"][/quote]
[div align="right"style="clear:left;float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:10em"]Diff: Proj-Recd[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:3em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:10em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"][/quote]
[div align="right"style="clear:left;float:left;width:2em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]2000
2004
2008[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]3.33
3.28
4.09[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]-1.58
-3.28
-4.08[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]4.91
6.56
8.17[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:3em"][/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]0.60
1.38
1.76[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]1.15
-1.38
-1.75[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:5em"]-0.56
2.76
3.50[/quote]
[/quote][div align="right"style="clear:left;line-height: 2.0"][/quote]
2006 National Exit Poll Timeline vs. the True Vote (Generic Poll Trend)
[div style="clear:left;font-family: Verdana;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.5"]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:7em"]VOTED[/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:17em;border-top: 1px solid gray;background: #E5E5E5"][b][link:tinyurl.com/ahy5p8|7:07p] Preliminary Exit Poll[/quote][div style="float:left;width:3em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:17em;;background: #E5E5E5;border-top: 1px solid gray"][b][link:tinyurl.com/d2ucy8|1pm] Final Exit Poll[/quote][div style="float:left;width:6em"][/quote][div align="center"style="float:left;width:17em;background: #C6E2FF;border-top: 1px solid gray"]True Generic Vote[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:7em"]'04
Kerry
Bush
Other
DNV

TOTAL[/quote][div style="float:left;width:3.5em"]Mix
45%
47%
4%
4%

100%[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:4.5em"]Dem
93%
17%
67%
67%

55.2%[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:4.4em"]Rep
6%
82%
23%
30%

43.4%[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:4.4em"]Other
1%
1%
10%
3%

1.4%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:3em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:3.5em"]Mix
43%
49%
4%
4%

100%[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:4.5em"]Dem
92%
15%
66%
66%

52.2%[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:4.5em"]Rep
7%
83%
23%
32%

45.9%[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:4.5em"]Other
1%
2%
11%
2%

1.9%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:6em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width:3.5em"]Mix
49%
46%
1%
4%

100%[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:4.5em"]Dem
93%
17%
67%
67%

56.7%[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:4.5em"]Rep
6%
82%
23%
30%

42.1%[/quote][div align="right"style="float:left;width:4.5em"]Other
1%
1%
10%
3%

1.2%[/quote]
[/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.5"][/quote]
2006 Generic Pre-election Poll Trend vs. the 7:07pm and Final National Exit Poll
[div style="clear:left;font-family: Courier New,Verdana;font-size: 11px;line-height: 1.5"]
National Exit Poll
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:8em"]Source
Unadj NEP
CNN-7pm
CNN-Final
NYT[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Dem
56.37%
55.20%
52.20%
53.10%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Rep
41.33%
43.40%
45.90%
44.90%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:5em"]Other
2.30%
1.50%
2.50%
2.00%[/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.1"][/quote]
Reported National Vote
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:8em"]Wikipedia
CBS-Nat
CBS-State[/quote][div style="float:left;width:6em"]57.70%
52.70%
51.30%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:6em"]41.80%
45.10%
46.40%[/quote][div style="float:left;width:6em"]0.50%
2.20%
2.30%[/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.1"][/quote]
120 Generic Poll Linear Regression Trend
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width:5em"]Dem=
Rep=[/quote][div style="float:left;width:15em"]46.98 + .0419x
38.06 + .0047x[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.1"][/quote]
Substituting x = 120 and allocating 60% of the undecided vote (UVA) to the Democrats:
[div style="clear:l