TruthIsAll
07-19-2008, 05:49 AM
2008 Election Model
A Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
TruthIsAll
Updated: July 18
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm
There is a famous street card game scam called Three-Card Monte in which
the victim, or mark, is tricked into betting a sum of money if he can find
the money card among three face-down cards. Our elections are the equivalent
of Three-Card Monte. What you see is not what you get. In this democracy game
the voter is the mark. The Election Model is doomed to fail in a Three-Card
Monte election.
Based on the latest state polls, projections and win probabilities, the
5000-election trial Monte Carlo simulation indicates that Obama will win 53.73%
of the two-party vote and 370 electoral votes - if the election is fraud-free
and held today. But assuming the base case scenario that he will win 60% of
the undecided votes (UVA), he will have 54.68% with 404 electoral votes.
The national average 5-poll projection is that he will win 53.60% (60% UVA).
Since Obama won all 5000 Monte Carlo (MC) simulation election trials, his
electoral vote win probability is 100%. The win probability is calculated for
both the electoral and popular vote –and they match which confirms the methods
and makes sense intuitively. The calculations are based on a Monte Carlo
simulation (electoral vote) and normal distribution (popular vote).
“What are you smoking? Nothing is 100%”. Well, based on the results of 5000 MC
simulation trials, the win probability is 100%. The methods are described below.
There are a number of election forecasting sites on the Internet which give
McCain more than a 3% chance of winning the election. This is a mathematical
impossibility(see below) since Obama is leading by over 6% nationally.
Whether or not the inflated McCain win probabilities are due to mathematical
error, the sites are providing potential cover for another stolen election.
A popular vote margin of 6% will result in an electoral vote win 99.98% of the time.
Some sites base their probabilities on the election voting markets which currently
give McCain a 30-40% chance of winning. Unless the market participants have
foreknowledge that the election will once again be stolen, the inflated McCain
prices (probabilities) only reflect the “horserace” propaganda that is fed to
them by the media.
Fifty state polls (zogby.com and electoral-vote.com) and 5 national polls
(realclearpolitics.com) confirm that Obama is leading by 54-46%. And his lead
has been increasing over the past six weeks. The Law of Large Numbers (LLN) is
in effect. The more polls, the more samples, the greater the confidence that
the sample mean vote is close to the True Vote. The LLN confirms that with 54%
of the two-party vote, Obama has a 100% probability of winning the Electoral Vote.
Monte Carlo determined this relationship between Obama’s aggregate average
2-party vote share and the electoral vote:
Vote Share 50.0 50.5 51.0 51.5 52.0 52.5 53.0 53.7 54.7
Average EV 263 276 289 301 315 329 346 370 404
Win Prob 39.1 64.5 83.8 94.9 98.8 99.9 99.98 100 100
This is why Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is used to calculate the electoral vote
win probability and expected (mean) EV:
1) Academic models attempt to forecast vote share months in advance of the
election using a regression analysis of economic and political time-series.
The Election Model calculates the probability of winning the electoral vote
based on the latest polls right up to the election.
2) MC uses individual state win probabilities, as opposed to simple
win-lose scenarios in media-created election models.
3) MC is a powerful tool for analyzing risk-based systems (i.e. electoral
vote models) when deriving an analytical solution is impractical or impossible.
2008 Election Calculator
This model uses prior election votes cast, mortality and estimated voter turnout to calculate the True Vote.
It was originally developed to determine the 2004 True vote after the fact.
It does not calculate the corresponding Electoral vote.
But we can estimate the Electoral vote and win probability from the popular vote
National Exit Poll vote shares of returning voters were key inputs.
As of today, the 2008 projection confirms the Election Model: Obama has 54.1%.
The model projects that Obama will win the True Vote by 71-59m.
Input consists of the 2004 recorded vote, mortality, uncounted votes and estimated 2004 voter turnout in 2008.
The vote shares are similar to the 2004 National Exit Poll shares of returning and new voters.
These graphs display the effects of uncounted and switched votes on Obama's projected EV and 2-party vote share.
Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the projected vote share
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_31043_image001.png
Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the electoral vote
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_28660_image001.png
The complete state and national polls and projections are shown below.
These graphs display the trend:
Aggregate state poll trend
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_12777_image001.png
National 5-poll moving average projection
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_5555_image001.png
Aggregate State vs. National projection trend
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_23916_image001.png
Battleground state polls and projections
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_411_image001.png
Battleground state win probabilities
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_1404_image001.png
Electoral vote and win probability trend
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_29371_image001.png
Electoral vote and projected vote share trend
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_30624_image001.png
Undecided voter allocation impact on win probability
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_32191_image001.png
Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_30550_image001.png
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_3523_image001.png
Calculation of Win Probabilities
In each election trial, the winner is determined by a random process based on
state win probabilities which are in turn determined by the latest poll.
For example, assume that Obama is projected to win Florida’s 27 EV with 51%
of the popular vote (based on the latest polls). Many electoral vote
calculators would simply add the 27 EV to the Obama column to determine
his projected electoral vote total or just say it’s the too-close to call.
But that is an over-simplification; based on his projected share, Obama
has a 69% probability of winning Florida; McCain has a 31% chance%.
Obama’s 69% FL win probability is compared to a random number (RND) between
zero and one. If the RND is less or equal to 0.69, Obama wins Florida’s 27 EV;
otherwise McCain wins. In each election trial, the RND/ win probability
comparison is applied to each state. The winner of the election trial is
the candidate who has at least 270 EV. The electoral vote win probability is
simply the number of winning election trials divided by 5000. Since Obama won
all 5000 election trials, his win probability is 100%.
The Popular Vote win probability (for a state and the national aggregate) is
calculated using the Excel normal distribution function. Obama’s popular vote
win probability closely matches his Monte Carlo EV win probability. Obama’s
projected two-party vote share and the polling MoE/1.96 (Stdev) are the only
required inputs to the function.
Obama’s projected base case (60% UVA) vote share is V=54.68%.
Assuming a 2.0% polling MoE, his popular vote win probability is 100%.
100.0% = NORMDIST (54.68%, 50%, 2.0%/1.96, true)
Assuming a 3.0% MoE, the probability is 99.89%
For the 50% UVA scenario, V=53.17%; the win probability is 99.90% (2.0% MoE).
Assuming a 3.0% MoE, the probability is 98.07%
Obama’s win probability in each state is also calculated by the normal distribution.
The probabilities assume a 4% margin of error.
For example, assume that Obama is tied with McCain in the latest polls at 45%.
With 60% of the undecided vote, he is projected to win the 2-party vote by 51-49%.
His probability of winning is 69%: =NORMDIST (.51, .50, .04/1.96, TRUE).
The National Model calculates the moving average projection based on 5 national
polls. The base case 60% UVA scenario is assumed. The model provides a further
confirmation of the State Model probabilities. The normal distribution function
calculates win probabilities for all the moving averages using the MoE of the
latest poll. For example, the latest Rasmussen poll (3000 sample) has a 1.79% MoE.
Based on the 53.60% moving average projection, there is a 99.996% probability that
Obama will win the popular vote: 99.996% = NORMDIST (53.60%, 50%, 1.91% /1.96, true)
In a true democracy, this would be a slam dunk for Obama.
McCain supports the most unpopular president in history with 25% approval.
2008 Election Calculator
Basic input consists of the 2004 recorded vote, mortality, uncounted votes and
2004 voter turnout in 2008.The True Vote is calculated by applying vote shares
to returning 2004 and new voters.The model determined that Obama will win the
True Vote by 71-59m with 54% of the vote.
2008 Election Fraud Scenario Analysis
But there’s a catch: It’s called Election Fraud.
The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.
A massive voter registration and GOTV effort is required to overcome the fraud.
Approximately 3-4 million of Obama’s votes will be uncounted.
Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes conventional wisdom.
But that’s to be expected. Although the media commissioned the exit polls which
indicated that Kerry won by 5%, they don’t question the mathematically impossible
Final Exit Poll which was forced to match a corrupt vote count. Bush won the
corrupt Recorded vote but lost the True vote.
Past is Prologue. It would be foolish to assume a fraud-free election.
That’s why the Election Model now includes a fraud scenario analysis.
Even assuming that 4% of total votes cast will be uncounted, McCain would need
8% of Obama’s votes switched to his column to win. In 2004 approximately 3% of
all votes cast were uncounted. Bush stole 8.0% of Kerry’s votes (analysis below)
to obtain his 3.0 million vote “mandate”.
Zogby was correct in 2004 when he projected that Kerry would win. Unfortunately,
Bush won a rigged recorded vote. Kerry won the True Vote, but like Three-Card
Monte, what you see is not what you get. Election forecasters and complicit media
pundits who projected a Bush win avoid discussing the overwhelming evidence that
the election was stolen. On the contrary, a complicit media relentlessly promotes
the fictional propaganda that Bush won TWO elections.
The Election Model has been updated to include two key fraud variable factors:
uncounted votes (net of votes padded) and switched votes. Historical evidence
shows that over 75% of uncounted ballots are found in heavily Democratic minority
precincts.
These critical factors are never included in election forecasting models
which permeate the media and the internet. In fact, there is no mention of
fraud from professional pollsters, political forecasters in academia, media
pundits or liberal bloggers on their web sites. But it’s understandable.
No one wants to bite the hand that feeds them. Why should any of these
interested parties discuss fraud when Democratic politicians won’t?
Unlike impeachment, the dirty little secret of election fraud has always
been off the table in Congress.
The base case projection assumes zero fraud. But if 4% of total votes cast
are uncounted, McCain would need 8% of Obama’s votes switched to his column
in order to win. This could be done by rigging strategically selected
touch screens, optical scanners, punched cards, levers and central tabulators.
Is it just a coincidence that Karl Rove is advising McCain?
The Election Model calculates projected vote shares and the electoral vote over
a range of 36 uncounted and switched vote scenarios. The scenarios range from
the True Vote (zero votes uncounted, zero switched) to Massive Fraud (5%, 10%).
For simplicity, the model assumes that the scenarios apply equally in each state
-admittedly an unrealistic assumption. But it provides a good approximation of
the impact on the projected electoral vote and popular vote share.
2004 Election Model Review
On Election Day 2004, Bush had a 48% approval rating.
He won the official vote by 62.0 – 59.0m (122.3m total recorded).
But according to the 2004 Census, 125.7m total votes were cast.
Therefore, approximately 3.4m votes (2.74%) were uncounted.
The majority (70-80%) of uncounted ballots are in Democratic minority precincts.
Including uncounted votes, the adjusted count becomes 62.9 - 61.5m.
The Final 2004 Election Model projected that Kerry would win 337-201 EV with 51.8%.
Preliminary State and National exit polls also indicated that Kerry won.
Bush was the official winner by 50.7- 48.3% with 286 EV.
The Final National Exit poll was forced to match the fraudulent recorded vote.
The Election Model produced a startling confirmation of the state and national projections.
In the base case scenario, Kerry was assumed to win 75% of the undecided vote.
The Monte Carlo simulation determined that he would win 337 electoral votes.
Both models projected Kerry the winner with 51.8% of the two-party vote.
The final 5 national poll average projection was 51.8%.
The final 18national poll average projection was 51.6%.
Kerry’s projected vote share was within 2.0% of his exit poll share in 23 states.
The 12:22am Preliminary National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry won by 51 – 48%.
Exit Pollsters Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan. 2005.
E-M discussed polling methodology and provided summary statistics by state, region and voting method.
Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the average deviation between unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote.
It is more appropriate to call the difference a Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD).
Kerry won the unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit poll by 52.0-47.0% (average of three measures).
The WPD exceeded 6% in 25 states for Bush. It exceeded 4% in 34 states for Bush and just 2 for Kerry.
The WPD was less than 2% in 8 heavily Republican states (AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, MT, OK and TN) and
Democratic Oregon, the only state in which voting is 100% by mail-in paper ballots.
The 1:25pm FINAL National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry lost by 48 - 51%.
All FINAL National Exit Polls are 'forced' to match the Recorded Vote.
The 'forcing' of the 2004 Exit Poll numbers resulted in IMPOSSIBLE demographics.
2004 Registered Voter (RV) vs. Likely Voter (LV) Polls
The national pre-election RV polls were closer to the True Vote than likely voter LV polls.
The LV polls, after adjustments, matched the RVs – and the unadjusted exit polls.
The Election Calculator Model determined that Kerry won by 66.9-57.1 million.
Simple arithmetic shows that approximately 5.4m votes (8.0%) were switched from Kerry to Bush.
In most states, votes cast exceeded votes recorded – the net uncounted vote.
In Florida, Ohio and other states, votes recorded exceeded votes cast - the net padded vote.
.
A Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
TruthIsAll
Updated: July 18
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm
There is a famous street card game scam called Three-Card Monte in which
the victim, or mark, is tricked into betting a sum of money if he can find
the money card among three face-down cards. Our elections are the equivalent
of Three-Card Monte. What you see is not what you get. In this democracy game
the voter is the mark. The Election Model is doomed to fail in a Three-Card
Monte election.
Based on the latest state polls, projections and win probabilities, the
5000-election trial Monte Carlo simulation indicates that Obama will win 53.73%
of the two-party vote and 370 electoral votes - if the election is fraud-free
and held today. But assuming the base case scenario that he will win 60% of
the undecided votes (UVA), he will have 54.68% with 404 electoral votes.
The national average 5-poll projection is that he will win 53.60% (60% UVA).
Since Obama won all 5000 Monte Carlo (MC) simulation election trials, his
electoral vote win probability is 100%. The win probability is calculated for
both the electoral and popular vote –and they match which confirms the methods
and makes sense intuitively. The calculations are based on a Monte Carlo
simulation (electoral vote) and normal distribution (popular vote).
“What are you smoking? Nothing is 100%”. Well, based on the results of 5000 MC
simulation trials, the win probability is 100%. The methods are described below.
There are a number of election forecasting sites on the Internet which give
McCain more than a 3% chance of winning the election. This is a mathematical
impossibility(see below) since Obama is leading by over 6% nationally.
Whether or not the inflated McCain win probabilities are due to mathematical
error, the sites are providing potential cover for another stolen election.
A popular vote margin of 6% will result in an electoral vote win 99.98% of the time.
Some sites base their probabilities on the election voting markets which currently
give McCain a 30-40% chance of winning. Unless the market participants have
foreknowledge that the election will once again be stolen, the inflated McCain
prices (probabilities) only reflect the “horserace” propaganda that is fed to
them by the media.
Fifty state polls (zogby.com and electoral-vote.com) and 5 national polls
(realclearpolitics.com) confirm that Obama is leading by 54-46%. And his lead
has been increasing over the past six weeks. The Law of Large Numbers (LLN) is
in effect. The more polls, the more samples, the greater the confidence that
the sample mean vote is close to the True Vote. The LLN confirms that with 54%
of the two-party vote, Obama has a 100% probability of winning the Electoral Vote.
Monte Carlo determined this relationship between Obama’s aggregate average
2-party vote share and the electoral vote:
Vote Share 50.0 50.5 51.0 51.5 52.0 52.5 53.0 53.7 54.7
Average EV 263 276 289 301 315 329 346 370 404
Win Prob 39.1 64.5 83.8 94.9 98.8 99.9 99.98 100 100
This is why Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is used to calculate the electoral vote
win probability and expected (mean) EV:
1) Academic models attempt to forecast vote share months in advance of the
election using a regression analysis of economic and political time-series.
The Election Model calculates the probability of winning the electoral vote
based on the latest polls right up to the election.
2) MC uses individual state win probabilities, as opposed to simple
win-lose scenarios in media-created election models.
3) MC is a powerful tool for analyzing risk-based systems (i.e. electoral
vote models) when deriving an analytical solution is impractical or impossible.
2008 Election Calculator
This model uses prior election votes cast, mortality and estimated voter turnout to calculate the True Vote.
It was originally developed to determine the 2004 True vote after the fact.
It does not calculate the corresponding Electoral vote.
But we can estimate the Electoral vote and win probability from the popular vote
National Exit Poll vote shares of returning voters were key inputs.
As of today, the 2008 projection confirms the Election Model: Obama has 54.1%.
The model projects that Obama will win the True Vote by 71-59m.
Input consists of the 2004 recorded vote, mortality, uncounted votes and estimated 2004 voter turnout in 2008.
The vote shares are similar to the 2004 National Exit Poll shares of returning and new voters.
These graphs display the effects of uncounted and switched votes on Obama's projected EV and 2-party vote share.
Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the projected vote share
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_31043_image001.png
Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the electoral vote
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_28660_image001.png
The complete state and national polls and projections are shown below.
These graphs display the trend:
Aggregate state poll trend
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_12777_image001.png
National 5-poll moving average projection
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_5555_image001.png
Aggregate State vs. National projection trend
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_23916_image001.png
Battleground state polls and projections
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_411_image001.png
Battleground state win probabilities
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_1404_image001.png
Electoral vote and win probability trend
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_29371_image001.png
Electoral vote and projected vote share trend
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_30624_image001.png
Undecided voter allocation impact on win probability
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_32191_image001.png
Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_30550_image001.png
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_3523_image001.png
Calculation of Win Probabilities
In each election trial, the winner is determined by a random process based on
state win probabilities which are in turn determined by the latest poll.
For example, assume that Obama is projected to win Florida’s 27 EV with 51%
of the popular vote (based on the latest polls). Many electoral vote
calculators would simply add the 27 EV to the Obama column to determine
his projected electoral vote total or just say it’s the too-close to call.
But that is an over-simplification; based on his projected share, Obama
has a 69% probability of winning Florida; McCain has a 31% chance%.
Obama’s 69% FL win probability is compared to a random number (RND) between
zero and one. If the RND is less or equal to 0.69, Obama wins Florida’s 27 EV;
otherwise McCain wins. In each election trial, the RND/ win probability
comparison is applied to each state. The winner of the election trial is
the candidate who has at least 270 EV. The electoral vote win probability is
simply the number of winning election trials divided by 5000. Since Obama won
all 5000 election trials, his win probability is 100%.
The Popular Vote win probability (for a state and the national aggregate) is
calculated using the Excel normal distribution function. Obama’s popular vote
win probability closely matches his Monte Carlo EV win probability. Obama’s
projected two-party vote share and the polling MoE/1.96 (Stdev) are the only
required inputs to the function.
Obama’s projected base case (60% UVA) vote share is V=54.68%.
Assuming a 2.0% polling MoE, his popular vote win probability is 100%.
100.0% = NORMDIST (54.68%, 50%, 2.0%/1.96, true)
Assuming a 3.0% MoE, the probability is 99.89%
For the 50% UVA scenario, V=53.17%; the win probability is 99.90% (2.0% MoE).
Assuming a 3.0% MoE, the probability is 98.07%
Obama’s win probability in each state is also calculated by the normal distribution.
The probabilities assume a 4% margin of error.
For example, assume that Obama is tied with McCain in the latest polls at 45%.
With 60% of the undecided vote, he is projected to win the 2-party vote by 51-49%.
His probability of winning is 69%: =NORMDIST (.51, .50, .04/1.96, TRUE).
The National Model calculates the moving average projection based on 5 national
polls. The base case 60% UVA scenario is assumed. The model provides a further
confirmation of the State Model probabilities. The normal distribution function
calculates win probabilities for all the moving averages using the MoE of the
latest poll. For example, the latest Rasmussen poll (3000 sample) has a 1.79% MoE.
Based on the 53.60% moving average projection, there is a 99.996% probability that
Obama will win the popular vote: 99.996% = NORMDIST (53.60%, 50%, 1.91% /1.96, true)
In a true democracy, this would be a slam dunk for Obama.
McCain supports the most unpopular president in history with 25% approval.
2008 Election Calculator
Basic input consists of the 2004 recorded vote, mortality, uncounted votes and
2004 voter turnout in 2008.The True Vote is calculated by applying vote shares
to returning 2004 and new voters.The model determined that Obama will win the
True Vote by 71-59m with 54% of the vote.
2008 Election Fraud Scenario Analysis
But there’s a catch: It’s called Election Fraud.
The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.
A massive voter registration and GOTV effort is required to overcome the fraud.
Approximately 3-4 million of Obama’s votes will be uncounted.
Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes conventional wisdom.
But that’s to be expected. Although the media commissioned the exit polls which
indicated that Kerry won by 5%, they don’t question the mathematically impossible
Final Exit Poll which was forced to match a corrupt vote count. Bush won the
corrupt Recorded vote but lost the True vote.
Past is Prologue. It would be foolish to assume a fraud-free election.
That’s why the Election Model now includes a fraud scenario analysis.
Even assuming that 4% of total votes cast will be uncounted, McCain would need
8% of Obama’s votes switched to his column to win. In 2004 approximately 3% of
all votes cast were uncounted. Bush stole 8.0% of Kerry’s votes (analysis below)
to obtain his 3.0 million vote “mandate”.
Zogby was correct in 2004 when he projected that Kerry would win. Unfortunately,
Bush won a rigged recorded vote. Kerry won the True Vote, but like Three-Card
Monte, what you see is not what you get. Election forecasters and complicit media
pundits who projected a Bush win avoid discussing the overwhelming evidence that
the election was stolen. On the contrary, a complicit media relentlessly promotes
the fictional propaganda that Bush won TWO elections.
The Election Model has been updated to include two key fraud variable factors:
uncounted votes (net of votes padded) and switched votes. Historical evidence
shows that over 75% of uncounted ballots are found in heavily Democratic minority
precincts.
These critical factors are never included in election forecasting models
which permeate the media and the internet. In fact, there is no mention of
fraud from professional pollsters, political forecasters in academia, media
pundits or liberal bloggers on their web sites. But it’s understandable.
No one wants to bite the hand that feeds them. Why should any of these
interested parties discuss fraud when Democratic politicians won’t?
Unlike impeachment, the dirty little secret of election fraud has always
been off the table in Congress.
The base case projection assumes zero fraud. But if 4% of total votes cast
are uncounted, McCain would need 8% of Obama’s votes switched to his column
in order to win. This could be done by rigging strategically selected
touch screens, optical scanners, punched cards, levers and central tabulators.
Is it just a coincidence that Karl Rove is advising McCain?
The Election Model calculates projected vote shares and the electoral vote over
a range of 36 uncounted and switched vote scenarios. The scenarios range from
the True Vote (zero votes uncounted, zero switched) to Massive Fraud (5%, 10%).
For simplicity, the model assumes that the scenarios apply equally in each state
-admittedly an unrealistic assumption. But it provides a good approximation of
the impact on the projected electoral vote and popular vote share.
2004 Election Model Review
On Election Day 2004, Bush had a 48% approval rating.
He won the official vote by 62.0 – 59.0m (122.3m total recorded).
But according to the 2004 Census, 125.7m total votes were cast.
Therefore, approximately 3.4m votes (2.74%) were uncounted.
The majority (70-80%) of uncounted ballots are in Democratic minority precincts.
Including uncounted votes, the adjusted count becomes 62.9 - 61.5m.
The Final 2004 Election Model projected that Kerry would win 337-201 EV with 51.8%.
Preliminary State and National exit polls also indicated that Kerry won.
Bush was the official winner by 50.7- 48.3% with 286 EV.
The Final National Exit poll was forced to match the fraudulent recorded vote.
The Election Model produced a startling confirmation of the state and national projections.
In the base case scenario, Kerry was assumed to win 75% of the undecided vote.
The Monte Carlo simulation determined that he would win 337 electoral votes.
Both models projected Kerry the winner with 51.8% of the two-party vote.
The final 5 national poll average projection was 51.8%.
The final 18national poll average projection was 51.6%.
Kerry’s projected vote share was within 2.0% of his exit poll share in 23 states.
The 12:22am Preliminary National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry won by 51 – 48%.
Exit Pollsters Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan. 2005.
E-M discussed polling methodology and provided summary statistics by state, region and voting method.
Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the average deviation between unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote.
It is more appropriate to call the difference a Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD).
Kerry won the unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit poll by 52.0-47.0% (average of three measures).
The WPD exceeded 6% in 25 states for Bush. It exceeded 4% in 34 states for Bush and just 2 for Kerry.
The WPD was less than 2% in 8 heavily Republican states (AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, MT, OK and TN) and
Democratic Oregon, the only state in which voting is 100% by mail-in paper ballots.
The 1:25pm FINAL National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry lost by 48 - 51%.
All FINAL National Exit Polls are 'forced' to match the Recorded Vote.
The 'forcing' of the 2004 Exit Poll numbers resulted in IMPOSSIBLE demographics.
2004 Registered Voter (RV) vs. Likely Voter (LV) Polls
The national pre-election RV polls were closer to the True Vote than likely voter LV polls.
The LV polls, after adjustments, matched the RVs – and the unadjusted exit polls.
The Election Calculator Model determined that Kerry won by 66.9-57.1 million.
Simple arithmetic shows that approximately 5.4m votes (8.0%) were switched from Kerry to Bush.
In most states, votes cast exceeded votes recorded – the net uncounted vote.
In Florida, Ohio and other states, votes recorded exceeded votes cast - the net padded vote.
.