TruthIsAll
07-05-2010, 09:32 PM
Research 2000: A Closer Look at Volatility
http://richardcharnin.com/Research2000Volatility.htm
July 5, 2010
Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
http://richardcharnin.com/
In recent days, the methodology and polling results of Research 2000 have been questioned by Markos Moulitsas at Daily Kos and Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com.
It is ironic that both are critical of R2K, yet avoid any discussion or analysis of U.S. election fraud. Silver gives pollsters a high rank if their projections closely match the recorded vote counts, whether or not it is fraudulent. On the other hand, Nate gives low rankings to pollsters like Zogby who accurately project the True Vote - like Kerry in 2004.
Markos and Nate should take a hard look at the anomalous 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls. They should ask why ALL state and national final exit polls are forced to match the recorded vote.
The 2004 NEP forced a match to the recorded vote with a Bush/Gore 43/37% returning voter split of the 2004 electorate. In other words, the NEP required 7.4 million more returning Bush (52.6 million) than Gore (45.2) voters. This was not just implausible – it was mathematically impossible.
Here’s the proof: Bush only had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000; Gore had 51.0 million. Approximately 2.5 million Bush voters died and 2 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore, there could have been no more than 46 million returning Bush voters. Where did the 6.5 million (52.6-46) phantom Bush voters come from? In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million, but the True Vote Model indicates that Kerry won by 10 million.
http://www.richardcharnin.com/RecursiveTrueVoteModel.htm
The 2008 NEP forced a match to the recorded vote with the 46/37% split in returning Bush/Kerry voters. In other words, the NEP indicated there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. This was not just implausible – it was mathematically impossible. Most likely there were 10 million more returning Kerry than Bush voters, assuming the 2004 True Vote. Obama won the recorded vote by 9.5 million, but the True Vote Model indicates that Obama won by 22 million.
Nate and Markos should also look at the five presidential elections from 1988-2004. Of the 238 state exit polls, 65 exceeded the MoE – and 64 were in favor of the Republicans. Was it due to reluctant Republicans and chatty Democrats? No, it was due to uncounted Democrats and phantom Republicans.
Go here for the 1988-2004 state exit poll discrepancies.
http://richardcharnin.com/StateExitPollDiscrepancies.htm
It’s all in my book: Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes, and the National Exit Poll.
http://www.amazon.com/Proving-Election-Fraud-Uncounted-National/dp/144908527X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1270518788&sr=8-1
Silver suggests that the lack of volatility in the 2008 R2K tracking poll is indicative of a problem in methodology. He correctly notes that from Sept. 10, 2008 to Election Day, the maximum daily poll change in Obama’s share was 2%.
Silver is also correct in stating that the daily margin of error is 5% for a 360-370 daily sample. He concludes that the change in Obama’s share from one day to the next should have exceeded 2% many times – but did not do so even once.
R2K was a 3-day tracking poll of 1100 total respondents. It was essentially no different than standard polls that sample 360-370 voters a day but only report the total sample-size with a typical 3.0% margin of error. Most tracking polls report a continuous three-day moving average, but avoid providing the daily results. R2K provided the daily numbers. Why don’t the other pollsters do likewise?
Therefore, we can look at the R2K tracking poll as just another standard poll that provides daily and full 3-day samples. The volatility of the R2K poll is equivalent to standard polls of 1000-1200 respondents. R2K provided more information than other 2008 tracking polls that only reported the rolling 3-day average.
Table 1 displays R2K daily statistics.
The margin of error is 1.96 times the standard deviation (a measure of volatility) at the 95% confidence level.
The standard deviation of Obama’s daily poll shares was 1.83%. It was 1.59% for the 3-day moving average.
Table 2 is a comparison of Gallup vs. R2K.
Gallup was a registered voter (RV) poll. R2K was a likely voter (LV) poll.
The average shares and volatilities (standard deviation) closely match.
There was a strong 0.70 correlation between Obama’s Gallup and R2K shares.
There was a good 0.50 correlation between McCain’s Gallup and R2K shares.
http://richardcharnin.com/Research2000Volatility.htm
July 5, 2010
Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
http://richardcharnin.com/
In recent days, the methodology and polling results of Research 2000 have been questioned by Markos Moulitsas at Daily Kos and Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com.
It is ironic that both are critical of R2K, yet avoid any discussion or analysis of U.S. election fraud. Silver gives pollsters a high rank if their projections closely match the recorded vote counts, whether or not it is fraudulent. On the other hand, Nate gives low rankings to pollsters like Zogby who accurately project the True Vote - like Kerry in 2004.
Markos and Nate should take a hard look at the anomalous 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls. They should ask why ALL state and national final exit polls are forced to match the recorded vote.
The 2004 NEP forced a match to the recorded vote with a Bush/Gore 43/37% returning voter split of the 2004 electorate. In other words, the NEP required 7.4 million more returning Bush (52.6 million) than Gore (45.2) voters. This was not just implausible – it was mathematically impossible.
Here’s the proof: Bush only had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000; Gore had 51.0 million. Approximately 2.5 million Bush voters died and 2 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore, there could have been no more than 46 million returning Bush voters. Where did the 6.5 million (52.6-46) phantom Bush voters come from? In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million, but the True Vote Model indicates that Kerry won by 10 million.
http://www.richardcharnin.com/RecursiveTrueVoteModel.htm
The 2008 NEP forced a match to the recorded vote with the 46/37% split in returning Bush/Kerry voters. In other words, the NEP indicated there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. This was not just implausible – it was mathematically impossible. Most likely there were 10 million more returning Kerry than Bush voters, assuming the 2004 True Vote. Obama won the recorded vote by 9.5 million, but the True Vote Model indicates that Obama won by 22 million.
Nate and Markos should also look at the five presidential elections from 1988-2004. Of the 238 state exit polls, 65 exceeded the MoE – and 64 were in favor of the Republicans. Was it due to reluctant Republicans and chatty Democrats? No, it was due to uncounted Democrats and phantom Republicans.
Go here for the 1988-2004 state exit poll discrepancies.
http://richardcharnin.com/StateExitPollDiscrepancies.htm
It’s all in my book: Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes, and the National Exit Poll.
http://www.amazon.com/Proving-Election-Fraud-Uncounted-National/dp/144908527X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1270518788&sr=8-1
Silver suggests that the lack of volatility in the 2008 R2K tracking poll is indicative of a problem in methodology. He correctly notes that from Sept. 10, 2008 to Election Day, the maximum daily poll change in Obama’s share was 2%.
Silver is also correct in stating that the daily margin of error is 5% for a 360-370 daily sample. He concludes that the change in Obama’s share from one day to the next should have exceeded 2% many times – but did not do so even once.
R2K was a 3-day tracking poll of 1100 total respondents. It was essentially no different than standard polls that sample 360-370 voters a day but only report the total sample-size with a typical 3.0% margin of error. Most tracking polls report a continuous three-day moving average, but avoid providing the daily results. R2K provided the daily numbers. Why don’t the other pollsters do likewise?
Therefore, we can look at the R2K tracking poll as just another standard poll that provides daily and full 3-day samples. The volatility of the R2K poll is equivalent to standard polls of 1000-1200 respondents. R2K provided more information than other 2008 tracking polls that only reported the rolling 3-day average.
Table 1 displays R2K daily statistics.
The margin of error is 1.96 times the standard deviation (a measure of volatility) at the 95% confidence level.
The standard deviation of Obama’s daily poll shares was 1.83%. It was 1.59% for the 3-day moving average.
Table 2 is a comparison of Gallup vs. R2K.
Gallup was a registered voter (RV) poll. R2K was a likely voter (LV) poll.
The average shares and volatilities (standard deviation) closely match.
There was a strong 0.70 correlation between Obama’s Gallup and R2K shares.
There was a good 0.50 correlation between McCain’s Gallup and R2K shares.