TruthIsAll
11-14-2009, 02:48 PM
Landslide Denied: 2008 was an exact rerun of the 2006 midterms
TruthIsAll
Nov. 14, 2009
The 2008 election was a virtual duplicate of the 2006 midterms. The unadjusted and final exit polls both showed a 9% discrepancy in margin.
In 2006, a 120-Generic Poll trend model projected that the Democrats would win 56.43% (assuming they captured 60% of the undecided vote). The unadjusted 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that they had 56.37%; the 7pm adjusted NEP had 55.2%. The Final NEP was forced to match the recorded 52.2% share. The Democratic margin was reduced from 15.1% to 6.3%. The pre-election Generic 120 poll trend matched the exit poll to within .07%!
The Final 2008 NEP indicates that Obama's true margin was also cut from 16.1% to 7.3%. As usual, the Final was forced to match the recorded vote and revealed once again that the recorded vote was bogus, just like it was in 2006 and 2004. Obama won the official, recorded vote by 52.9-45.6%.
The Election Calculator model indicates that he won by 55.4-43.0% assuming that Bush won a fraud-free 2004 election by 50.7-48.3%. Impossible.
Obama won by 57.2-41.1% assuming that Kerry won by 52-47%. Plausible.
The 2008 unadjusted state exit polls have not been released. Exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky provided 2004 data on Jan. 19, 2005 - one day before the second Bush inaugural. The unadjusted 2008 state exit poll data would show that Obama won by at least double his 9.5m vote recorded margin. But will the mainstream media (that sponsored the poll) release it?
Are you listening, Keith and Rachel?
In 2006, 120 Pre-election House Generic Polls asked the question: Which congressional candidate are you going to vote for, the Democrat or Republican?
I created a trend line model based on a simple linear ("best-fit") regression of the 120 poll shares. The model projected the Democrats would win 56.43% of the House Generic vote.
The Linear Regression Trend Model produced the following "best fit" trend lines.
Dem = 46.98 + .0419x
Rep = 38.06 + .0047x
Substituting x = 120 and allocating 60% of undecided voters (UVA) to the Democrats:
Trend + UVA = Projection
Dem = 52.01 + 4.42 = 56.43%
Rep = 38.62 + 2.95 = 41.57%
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v474/autorank/Election2006_16921_image001.png
Exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky asked 13,251 responders:
Who did you just vote for, the Democrat or Republican?
The Democrats won the poll by 56.37- 41.33%.
A little more than half (6351) were asked who they voted for in 2004.
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/exitpolls.html
The Final NEP was forced to match the 52.2-45.9% recorded margin by
1) adjusting the returning Kerry/Bush voter mix to an implausible 43/49%
2) lowering the Democratic shares of returning Kerry and Bush voters by approximately 2-3%.
In order to match the 56.37-41.33% vote split, the returning voter mix was revised:
1) the impossible 4.0% Other mix was lowered to the recorded 1.0% share.
2) the Kerry/Bush returning voter mix was changed to a plausible 48.5/46.5%.
3) Bush vote shares had to be lowered to match the unadjusted exit poll.
The Final NEP radically changed the 7pm mix and shares in order match the recorded vote. Note that even the 7pm returning voter mix was dubious since it assumed that the 2004 recorded vote was the True Vote (i.e. there was zero fraud).
In 2006, there were approximately 3.2 million uncounted votes:
The uncounted votes account for some of the discrepancy.
Switched votes and stuffed ballots account for the rest.
http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/photos/uncategorized/2007/12/11/ballots_cast_vs_ballots_counted.jpg
[code]
Comparison Summary 2006/2008
2006
Model 56.43 (Pre-election Generic 120 Poll trend line model)
National Exit Poll
NEP Dem share
Unadj. 56.37%
7pm 55.20
Final 52.19 (4.16% deviation)
2008
NEP Dem share
Final NEP 52.62%
Recorded 52.87
Election Calculator Model
Scenario 1 55.38% (returning voter mix based on recorded vote: Bush 50.7-48.3%)
Scenario 2 57.24 (returning voter mix based on unadjusted exit poll: Kerry 52-47%)
________________________________________________________________________
2006
In today's election for the U.S. House of Representatives, did you just vote for? (13,251 respondents)
Democratic candidate 7470 (56.37%)
Republican candidate 5476 (41.33%)
Other 305 (2.30%)
_____________________________________________________
True Vote match to the unadjusted exit poll
Voted04 Mix Dem Rep Other
Kerry 48.5% 93% 6% 1%
Bush 46.5% 17% 80% 3%
Other 1% 67% 13% 20%
DNV 4% 67% 27% 6%
TOTAL 100% 56.36% 41.32% 2.32%
_____________________________________________________
CNN 7:07 pm National Exit Poll (10207 respondents)
Kerry return voter mix was reduced by 3.5%:
1) 0.5% went to Bush voters
2) Impossible 3.0% went to returning third-party voters
(1% voted third-party in 2004)
Voted04 Mix Dem Rep Other
Kerry 45% 93% 6% 1%
Bush 47% 17% 82% 1%
Other 4% 67% 23% 10%
DNV 4% 67% 30% 3%
TOTAL 100% 55.20% 43.36% 1.44%
_____________________________________________________
CNN Final National Exit Poll (13251 respondents)
(matched to the recorded vote):
1) Reduce Kerry return voter mix to 43%
2) Reduce Democratic share of returning Kerry voters to 92%
3) Increase Bush return voter mix to 49%
4) Reduce Democratic share of returning Bush voters to 15%
Voted04 Mix Dem Rep Other
Kerry 43% 92% 7% 1%
Bush 49% 15% 83% 2%
Other 4% 66% 23% 11%
DNV 4% 66% 32% 2%
TOTAL 100% 52.19% 45.88% 1.93%
________________________________________________________________________
2008
Final National Exit Poll
(forced to match the recorded vote; impossible returning Bush and Other voters)
Implied 2004 Total Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
Vote DNV 17.08 13% 71% 27% 2% 12.1 4.6 0.3
42.5% Kerry 48.61 37% 89% 9% 2% 43.3 4.4 1.0
52.9% Bush 60.43 46% 17% 82% 1% 10.3 49.6 0.6
4.6% Other 5.25 4% 66% 24% 10% 3.5 1.3 0.5
114.3 Total 131.37 100% 52.62% 45.52% 1.86% 69.13 59.80 2.44
Election Calculator Model
Scenario 1 (implausible): returning voter mix based on the recorded 2004 vote (Bush 50.73-Kerry 48.27%).
Obama wins by 16.8m: 75.0-58.2 (55.4-43.0%)
2008 Calculated Vote
2004 Record Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 19.42 14.3% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 59.03 2.58 61.61 2.96 58.65 96.9% 56.85 42.0% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 62.04 0.83 62.87 3.02 59.85 96.9% 58.01 42.8% 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.23 0.03 1.26 0.06 1.20 96.9% 1.16 0.86% 66% 24% 10%
Total 122.30 3.45 125.74 6.04 119.70 116.0 135.43 100% 55.38% 42.98% 1.64%
Cast 135.43 75.01 58.20 2.22
Recorded 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%
131.37 69.46 59.94 1.98
Scenario 2 (plausible): returning voter mix based on the unadjusted 2004 exit poll (Kerry 52-Bush 47%).
Obama wins by 21.8m: 77.5-55.7 (57.2-41.1%)
2008 Calculated Vote
2004 EPoll Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 19.42 14.3% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 63.59 1.79 65.38 3.14 62.25 96.9% 60.33 44.5% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 57.47 1.62 59.09 2.84 56.26 96.9% 54.52 40.3% 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.23 0.03 1.26 0.06 1.20 96.9% 1.16 0.86% 66% 24% 10%
Total 122.30 3.45 125.74 6.04 119.70 116.0 135.43 100% 57.24% 41.10% 1.67%
Cast 135.43 77.52 55.66 2.26
Recorded 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%
131.37 69.46 59.94 1.98
TruthIsAll
Nov. 14, 2009
The 2008 election was a virtual duplicate of the 2006 midterms. The unadjusted and final exit polls both showed a 9% discrepancy in margin.
In 2006, a 120-Generic Poll trend model projected that the Democrats would win 56.43% (assuming they captured 60% of the undecided vote). The unadjusted 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that they had 56.37%; the 7pm adjusted NEP had 55.2%. The Final NEP was forced to match the recorded 52.2% share. The Democratic margin was reduced from 15.1% to 6.3%. The pre-election Generic 120 poll trend matched the exit poll to within .07%!
The Final 2008 NEP indicates that Obama's true margin was also cut from 16.1% to 7.3%. As usual, the Final was forced to match the recorded vote and revealed once again that the recorded vote was bogus, just like it was in 2006 and 2004. Obama won the official, recorded vote by 52.9-45.6%.
The Election Calculator model indicates that he won by 55.4-43.0% assuming that Bush won a fraud-free 2004 election by 50.7-48.3%. Impossible.
Obama won by 57.2-41.1% assuming that Kerry won by 52-47%. Plausible.
The 2008 unadjusted state exit polls have not been released. Exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky provided 2004 data on Jan. 19, 2005 - one day before the second Bush inaugural. The unadjusted 2008 state exit poll data would show that Obama won by at least double his 9.5m vote recorded margin. But will the mainstream media (that sponsored the poll) release it?
Are you listening, Keith and Rachel?
In 2006, 120 Pre-election House Generic Polls asked the question: Which congressional candidate are you going to vote for, the Democrat or Republican?
I created a trend line model based on a simple linear ("best-fit") regression of the 120 poll shares. The model projected the Democrats would win 56.43% of the House Generic vote.
The Linear Regression Trend Model produced the following "best fit" trend lines.
Dem = 46.98 + .0419x
Rep = 38.06 + .0047x
Substituting x = 120 and allocating 60% of undecided voters (UVA) to the Democrats:
Trend + UVA = Projection
Dem = 52.01 + 4.42 = 56.43%
Rep = 38.62 + 2.95 = 41.57%
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v474/autorank/Election2006_16921_image001.png
Exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky asked 13,251 responders:
Who did you just vote for, the Democrat or Republican?
The Democrats won the poll by 56.37- 41.33%.
A little more than half (6351) were asked who they voted for in 2004.
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/exitpolls.html
The Final NEP was forced to match the 52.2-45.9% recorded margin by
1) adjusting the returning Kerry/Bush voter mix to an implausible 43/49%
2) lowering the Democratic shares of returning Kerry and Bush voters by approximately 2-3%.
In order to match the 56.37-41.33% vote split, the returning voter mix was revised:
1) the impossible 4.0% Other mix was lowered to the recorded 1.0% share.
2) the Kerry/Bush returning voter mix was changed to a plausible 48.5/46.5%.
3) Bush vote shares had to be lowered to match the unadjusted exit poll.
The Final NEP radically changed the 7pm mix and shares in order match the recorded vote. Note that even the 7pm returning voter mix was dubious since it assumed that the 2004 recorded vote was the True Vote (i.e. there was zero fraud).
In 2006, there were approximately 3.2 million uncounted votes:
The uncounted votes account for some of the discrepancy.
Switched votes and stuffed ballots account for the rest.
http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/photos/uncategorized/2007/12/11/ballots_cast_vs_ballots_counted.jpg
[code]
Comparison Summary 2006/2008
2006
Model 56.43 (Pre-election Generic 120 Poll trend line model)
National Exit Poll
NEP Dem share
Unadj. 56.37%
7pm 55.20
Final 52.19 (4.16% deviation)
2008
NEP Dem share
Final NEP 52.62%
Recorded 52.87
Election Calculator Model
Scenario 1 55.38% (returning voter mix based on recorded vote: Bush 50.7-48.3%)
Scenario 2 57.24 (returning voter mix based on unadjusted exit poll: Kerry 52-47%)
________________________________________________________________________
2006
In today's election for the U.S. House of Representatives, did you just vote for? (13,251 respondents)
Democratic candidate 7470 (56.37%)
Republican candidate 5476 (41.33%)
Other 305 (2.30%)
_____________________________________________________
True Vote match to the unadjusted exit poll
Voted04 Mix Dem Rep Other
Kerry 48.5% 93% 6% 1%
Bush 46.5% 17% 80% 3%
Other 1% 67% 13% 20%
DNV 4% 67% 27% 6%
TOTAL 100% 56.36% 41.32% 2.32%
_____________________________________________________
CNN 7:07 pm National Exit Poll (10207 respondents)
Kerry return voter mix was reduced by 3.5%:
1) 0.5% went to Bush voters
2) Impossible 3.0% went to returning third-party voters
(1% voted third-party in 2004)
Voted04 Mix Dem Rep Other
Kerry 45% 93% 6% 1%
Bush 47% 17% 82% 1%
Other 4% 67% 23% 10%
DNV 4% 67% 30% 3%
TOTAL 100% 55.20% 43.36% 1.44%
_____________________________________________________
CNN Final National Exit Poll (13251 respondents)
(matched to the recorded vote):
1) Reduce Kerry return voter mix to 43%
2) Reduce Democratic share of returning Kerry voters to 92%
3) Increase Bush return voter mix to 49%
4) Reduce Democratic share of returning Bush voters to 15%
Voted04 Mix Dem Rep Other
Kerry 43% 92% 7% 1%
Bush 49% 15% 83% 2%
Other 4% 66% 23% 11%
DNV 4% 66% 32% 2%
TOTAL 100% 52.19% 45.88% 1.93%
________________________________________________________________________
2008
Final National Exit Poll
(forced to match the recorded vote; impossible returning Bush and Other voters)
Implied 2004 Total Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
Vote DNV 17.08 13% 71% 27% 2% 12.1 4.6 0.3
42.5% Kerry 48.61 37% 89% 9% 2% 43.3 4.4 1.0
52.9% Bush 60.43 46% 17% 82% 1% 10.3 49.6 0.6
4.6% Other 5.25 4% 66% 24% 10% 3.5 1.3 0.5
114.3 Total 131.37 100% 52.62% 45.52% 1.86% 69.13 59.80 2.44
Election Calculator Model
Scenario 1 (implausible): returning voter mix based on the recorded 2004 vote (Bush 50.73-Kerry 48.27%).
Obama wins by 16.8m: 75.0-58.2 (55.4-43.0%)
2008 Calculated Vote
2004 Record Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 19.42 14.3% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 59.03 2.58 61.61 2.96 58.65 96.9% 56.85 42.0% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 62.04 0.83 62.87 3.02 59.85 96.9% 58.01 42.8% 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.23 0.03 1.26 0.06 1.20 96.9% 1.16 0.86% 66% 24% 10%
Total 122.30 3.45 125.74 6.04 119.70 116.0 135.43 100% 55.38% 42.98% 1.64%
Cast 135.43 75.01 58.20 2.22
Recorded 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%
131.37 69.46 59.94 1.98
Scenario 2 (plausible): returning voter mix based on the unadjusted 2004 exit poll (Kerry 52-Bush 47%).
Obama wins by 21.8m: 77.5-55.7 (57.2-41.1%)
2008 Calculated Vote
2004 EPoll Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 19.42 14.3% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 63.59 1.79 65.38 3.14 62.25 96.9% 60.33 44.5% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 57.47 1.62 59.09 2.84 56.26 96.9% 54.52 40.3% 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.23 0.03 1.26 0.06 1.20 96.9% 1.16 0.86% 66% 24% 10%
Total 122.30 3.45 125.74 6.04 119.70 116.0 135.43 100% 57.24% 41.10% 1.67%
Cast 135.43 77.52 55.66 2.26
Recorded 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%
131.37 69.46 59.94 1.98