seemslikeadream
05-23-2009, 08:17 AM
http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm
Time to Be Afraid
UrbanSurvival is not a site about fear-mongering - it's a site about trying to use the lessons of the last Depression (contrasted with the emerging one we're now in) to steer a smarter course through the present financial crap storm. The site doesn't offer investment advice, but I do my best to provide a better-than-average outlook on the general economic condition. That's something that I'm pleased to report has been accomplished; we've gotten thing much more 'right' than conventional financial media.
To get to the point this morning: I had a call on Thursday afternoon from a very, very worried Robin Landry, who was returning my call from earlier.
"George, you were asking about the short-term outlook? It's bad...really bad. Things that should not be happening in the market have been happening the past couple of sessions.
For instance, the Dow has been coming down, but at the same time, treasuries have been dropping, too, gold has been going up, and oil has been climbing.
So there's a possibility...and it's only a possibility that the market could go straight down from here..."
This was particularly worrisome to me, because as you know from reading this column, since last December I have been expecting a major spring rally which according to the HalfPastHuman.com linguistics work would end around May 14 (+/- a week) and that gold would soar (doubling three times is in there) along with silver and that the full-on derivatives meltdown would start around July 15th and would be emergent into a state of 'undeniability' around August 16th.
Landry's wave counts had - up until the Thursday afternoon call - offered me some hope that the predictive linguistics work would be wrong and that we'd somehow muddle through the present delevering of financial markets.
Now, Landry's worried that based on his market modeling that he's been using for nearly 30 years - and which has been good enough that as a one-man money manager he's driving 9-digits around the markets from his office up in Shawnee, Oklahoma - because of the way various wave counts are stacking up along with technical indicators.
"Robin, the way I've been hoping this would work out is that we'd still work up to the Dow 9,600 level, such that the decline from the October 2007 high (14,198 and change) would be the all-time high, which would make last year's 6,626 low the larger Wave 1 down, and that we'd last until mid-August of this year before we crash to your long term Dow 770 target in the 2010-2011 timeframe...."
"Well, that's been Bob Prechter's count too. My work says we're in a five wave decline and this week we finished four. As you know, crashed happen in the 5th waves down so if we take out 7,800 on the Dow in the next week, or so, then Katy bar the door...."
We then played with numbers for a few minutes
Time to Be Afraid
UrbanSurvival is not a site about fear-mongering - it's a site about trying to use the lessons of the last Depression (contrasted with the emerging one we're now in) to steer a smarter course through the present financial crap storm. The site doesn't offer investment advice, but I do my best to provide a better-than-average outlook on the general economic condition. That's something that I'm pleased to report has been accomplished; we've gotten thing much more 'right' than conventional financial media.
To get to the point this morning: I had a call on Thursday afternoon from a very, very worried Robin Landry, who was returning my call from earlier.
"George, you were asking about the short-term outlook? It's bad...really bad. Things that should not be happening in the market have been happening the past couple of sessions.
For instance, the Dow has been coming down, but at the same time, treasuries have been dropping, too, gold has been going up, and oil has been climbing.
So there's a possibility...and it's only a possibility that the market could go straight down from here..."
This was particularly worrisome to me, because as you know from reading this column, since last December I have been expecting a major spring rally which according to the HalfPastHuman.com linguistics work would end around May 14 (+/- a week) and that gold would soar (doubling three times is in there) along with silver and that the full-on derivatives meltdown would start around July 15th and would be emergent into a state of 'undeniability' around August 16th.
Landry's wave counts had - up until the Thursday afternoon call - offered me some hope that the predictive linguistics work would be wrong and that we'd somehow muddle through the present delevering of financial markets.
Now, Landry's worried that based on his market modeling that he's been using for nearly 30 years - and which has been good enough that as a one-man money manager he's driving 9-digits around the markets from his office up in Shawnee, Oklahoma - because of the way various wave counts are stacking up along with technical indicators.
"Robin, the way I've been hoping this would work out is that we'd still work up to the Dow 9,600 level, such that the decline from the October 2007 high (14,198 and change) would be the all-time high, which would make last year's 6,626 low the larger Wave 1 down, and that we'd last until mid-August of this year before we crash to your long term Dow 770 target in the 2010-2011 timeframe...."
"Well, that's been Bob Prechter's count too. My work says we're in a five wave decline and this week we finished four. As you know, crashed happen in the 5th waves down so if we take out 7,800 on the Dow in the next week, or so, then Katy bar the door...."
We then played with numbers for a few minutes