TruthIsAll
01-29-2009, 10:36 AM
2008 Landslide Denied: A Trifecta of National Exit Poll Anomalies
TruthIsAll
Jan. 29, 2009
Apparently, adjusting the returning Bush/Kerry voter mix to an impossible 46/37% was
not enough to force the 2008 National Exit Poll (NEP) to match the recorded vote.
Exit pollsters also had to adjust Obama's share of new voters (first-timers and
others who did not vote in 2004) from 73% to 71%. Add this anomaly to the impossible
mix of returning Bush and third-party voters and we have hit the 2008 Election Fraud
Trifecta. The Obama True Vote Landslide was denied.
It makes sense to adjust the returning voter mix AND the vote shares to get the
match. Adjusting the mix or the shares (but not both) would have been too obvious;
that would force exit poll deniers to jump through even smaller hoops to explain
the numbers. On the other hand, a combination of changes to the returning voter
mix as well as the vote shares minimizes the radical surgery required to force
the National Exit Poll to match to the recorded vote.
This sleight of hand also occurred in 2004. The Final 2004 NEP had to change
the 12:22am Bush/Gore returning voter mix from 41/39% to an impossible 43/37%
while reducing Kerry's share of new voters from 57% to 54%.
According to the 2008 National Exit Poll (Table 1):
1) 13% (17m) of the 131.37m recorded did not vote (DNV) in 2004.
2) Of the 13%, 11% were first-time voters and 2% voted prior to 2004.
3) Obama won DNV by 71-27%.
4) Obama won first-time voters by 69-30% (Table 2).
5) A simple calculation indicates that he won the other 2% by 82-13% (Table 3).
But there had to be more than 17m DNV in 2004. Here's why:
In 2004, there were 122.3 million recorded votes.
Approximately 6 million died (1.2% annual voter mortality.
Approximately 95% (110m) of the 116m still living returned to vote in 2008.
Therefore, 21m (16%) of the 131.37m recorded were new voters (DNV in 2004).
Assume that the 11% first-time voter stat (14.5m) is correct.
Then the remaining 6.5m (5%) were prior voters who did not vote in 2004.
Applying vote shares to the 21m (11% first-time and 4.8% prior) voters (Table 4):
Obama's share of DNV is 73%, not the 71% reported in the NEP.
Apparently, in order to match the recorded vote, the NEP adjusted Obama's
share of DNV along with the returning voter mix.
Note the following returning voter anomalies in the 2008 NEP:
1) The 46% (60.4m) returning Bush voter share is impossible.
Let’s do the math:
In 2004, Bush had 62.0 million votes (assuming zero election fraud).
Approximately 3m died (1.2% annual mortality) and 56m (95%) of 59m living turned out in 2008.
But what if Kerry in 2004 won by 52-47% (the unadjusted exit poll) and Bush had 57.5m votes?
Then approximately 51m (living) Bush voters returned to vote in 2008.
The 2008 NEP inflated the number of returning Bush voters by approximately 9 million.
2) The 4% (5.2m) third-party 2004 returning voter share is absolutely impossible.
This one is easy. No math required.
There were only 1.2m third-party voters in 2004.
The 4 million phantom returning third-party voters appear to be the 4m missing DNV voters (see above).
Tables 5-8 summarize the True Vote calculations.
Table 5: Final November Pre-election LV and RV poll averages before and after undecided voter allocation (UVA).
Table 6: Obama’s 56.2% (18.3m margin) is the sum of his DNV and LV shares (50% UVA) of returning 2004 voters.
Table 7: Obama’s 57.0% (20.5m margin) is the sum of his DNV and LV shares (75% UVA) of returning 2004 voters.
Table 8: Election Calculator True Vote based on 2008 National Exit Poll vote shares and 95% turnout of returning 2004 election voters.
Scenario 1. Obama’s 55.2% (15.8m.margin) is based on the recorded vote (Bush 50.7-Kerry 48.3%).
Scenario 2. Obama’s 57.5% (21.8m margin) is based on the unadjusted exit poll (Kerry 52.0-Bush 47.0%).
Note:
1. Obama’s pre-election registered voter (RV) share was 57.0% (75% UVA), exactly matching the sum of his DNV and LV shares (75% UVA).
2. In 2000, there were 5.4 million uncounted ballots; 3.4 million in 2004. Since 70-80% are Democratic, Obama’s share is 1-2% higher.
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Table 1
2008 National Exit Poll
2004 Mix Voted Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 13% 17.08 71% 27% 2% 12.13 4.61 0.34
Kerry 37% 48.61 89% 9% 2% 43.26 4.37 0.97
Bush 46% 60.43 17% 82% 1% 10.27 49.55 0.60
Other 4% 5.25 66% 24% 10% 3.47 1.26 0.53
Total 100% 131.37 52.6% 45.5% 1.9% 69.13 59.80 2.44
Margin 9.33
Table 2
NEP First time voted?
Voted Mix Obama McCain Other
Yes 14.45 11% 69% 30% 1%
No 116.92 89% 50% 48% 2%
Total 131.37 100% 52.1% 46.0% 1.9%
Table 3
National Exit Poll DNV (13.0%) shares
Share Votes DNV Mix Obama McCain Other
11% 14.45 New 84.6% 69% 30% 1%
2% 2.63 Prior 15.4% 82% 13% 5%
13% 17.08 Total 100% 71.0% 27.4% 1.6%
Table 4
Calculated DNV (15.8%) shares
Share Votes DNV Mix Obama McCain Other
11.0% 14.45 New 69.6% 69% 30% 1%
4.80% 6.31 Prior 30.4% 82% 13% 5%
15.8% 20.76 Total 100% 73.0% 24.8% 2.2%
Table 5
Final November Pre-election Polls
Poll Obama McCain Other Undecided
LV (9) 51.00% 43.56% 1.50% 3.94%
RV (3) 52.33% 40.00% 1.50% 6.17%
Allocate undecided voters
Poll Obama McCain Other
LV 53.96% 44.55% 1.50%
RV 56.96% 41.55% 1.50%
Table 6
True Vote based on Obama’s 73% share of DNV and 54% share of returning (LV) voters.
2004 Mix Voted Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 15.80% 20.76 72.95% 24.83% 2.22% 15.14 5.15 0.46
Return 84.20% 110.61 54.00% 44.50% 1.50% 59.73 49.22 1.66
True Vote 100% 131.37 56.99% 41.39% 1.61% 74.87 54.38 2.12
Margin 20.50
Table 7
Calculate a plausible returning voter mix assuming 4.8% mortality and 95% turnout.
Scenario 1: Returning voters based on 2004 recorded vote
2004 Actual ExitP Voted Died Alive Turnout Voted08 NEP/Vote NEP/Alive
Kerry 48.27% 52.0% 59.03 2.83 56.20 95% 53.39 91.0% 86.5%
Bush 50.73% 47.0 62.04 2.98 59.06 95% 56.11 107.7% 102.3%
Other 1.00% 1.0% 1.22 0.06 1.16 95% 1.11 475.1% 451.3%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 122.30 5.87 116.43 95% 110.61 118.8% 112.8%
Turnout 2004 Mix Voted Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 20.76 71% 27% 2% 14.74 5.61 0.42
95% Kerry 40.6% 53.39 89% 9% 2% 47.52 4.81 1.07
95% Bush 42.7% 56.11 17% 82% 1% 9.54 46.01 0.56
95% Other 0.8% 1.11 66% 24% 10% 0.73 0.27 0.11
Total 100.0% 131.37 55.21% 43.15% 1.64% 72.53 56.69 2.15
Margin 15.84
Scenario 2: Returning voters based on 2004 unadjusted exit poll
2004 Actual ExitP Voted Died Alive Turnout Voted08 NEP/Vote NEP/Alive
Kerry 48.27% 52.0% 63.60 3.05 60.54 95% 57.52 84.5% 80.3%
Bush 50.73% 47.0% 57.48 2.76 54.72 95% 51.99 116.2% 110.4%
Other 1.00% 1.0% 1.22 0.06 1.16 95% 1.11 475.1% 451.3%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 122.30 5.87 116.43 95% 110.61 118.8% 112.8%
Turnout 2004 Mix Voted Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 20.76 71% 27% 2% 14.74 5.61 0.42
95% Kerry 43.8% 57.52 89% 9% 2% 51.19 5.18 1.15
95% Bush 39.6% 51.99 17% 82% 1% 8.84 42.63 0.52
95% Other 0.8% 1.11 66% 24% 10% 0.73 0.27 0.11
Total 100.0% 131.37 57.47% 40.86% 1.67% 75.50 53.68 2.20
Margin 21.82
TruthIsAll
Jan. 29, 2009
Apparently, adjusting the returning Bush/Kerry voter mix to an impossible 46/37% was
not enough to force the 2008 National Exit Poll (NEP) to match the recorded vote.
Exit pollsters also had to adjust Obama's share of new voters (first-timers and
others who did not vote in 2004) from 73% to 71%. Add this anomaly to the impossible
mix of returning Bush and third-party voters and we have hit the 2008 Election Fraud
Trifecta. The Obama True Vote Landslide was denied.
It makes sense to adjust the returning voter mix AND the vote shares to get the
match. Adjusting the mix or the shares (but not both) would have been too obvious;
that would force exit poll deniers to jump through even smaller hoops to explain
the numbers. On the other hand, a combination of changes to the returning voter
mix as well as the vote shares minimizes the radical surgery required to force
the National Exit Poll to match to the recorded vote.
This sleight of hand also occurred in 2004. The Final 2004 NEP had to change
the 12:22am Bush/Gore returning voter mix from 41/39% to an impossible 43/37%
while reducing Kerry's share of new voters from 57% to 54%.
According to the 2008 National Exit Poll (Table 1):
1) 13% (17m) of the 131.37m recorded did not vote (DNV) in 2004.
2) Of the 13%, 11% were first-time voters and 2% voted prior to 2004.
3) Obama won DNV by 71-27%.
4) Obama won first-time voters by 69-30% (Table 2).
5) A simple calculation indicates that he won the other 2% by 82-13% (Table 3).
But there had to be more than 17m DNV in 2004. Here's why:
In 2004, there were 122.3 million recorded votes.
Approximately 6 million died (1.2% annual voter mortality.
Approximately 95% (110m) of the 116m still living returned to vote in 2008.
Therefore, 21m (16%) of the 131.37m recorded were new voters (DNV in 2004).
Assume that the 11% first-time voter stat (14.5m) is correct.
Then the remaining 6.5m (5%) were prior voters who did not vote in 2004.
Applying vote shares to the 21m (11% first-time and 4.8% prior) voters (Table 4):
Obama's share of DNV is 73%, not the 71% reported in the NEP.
Apparently, in order to match the recorded vote, the NEP adjusted Obama's
share of DNV along with the returning voter mix.
Note the following returning voter anomalies in the 2008 NEP:
1) The 46% (60.4m) returning Bush voter share is impossible.
Let’s do the math:
In 2004, Bush had 62.0 million votes (assuming zero election fraud).
Approximately 3m died (1.2% annual mortality) and 56m (95%) of 59m living turned out in 2008.
But what if Kerry in 2004 won by 52-47% (the unadjusted exit poll) and Bush had 57.5m votes?
Then approximately 51m (living) Bush voters returned to vote in 2008.
The 2008 NEP inflated the number of returning Bush voters by approximately 9 million.
2) The 4% (5.2m) third-party 2004 returning voter share is absolutely impossible.
This one is easy. No math required.
There were only 1.2m third-party voters in 2004.
The 4 million phantom returning third-party voters appear to be the 4m missing DNV voters (see above).
Tables 5-8 summarize the True Vote calculations.
Table 5: Final November Pre-election LV and RV poll averages before and after undecided voter allocation (UVA).
Table 6: Obama’s 56.2% (18.3m margin) is the sum of his DNV and LV shares (50% UVA) of returning 2004 voters.
Table 7: Obama’s 57.0% (20.5m margin) is the sum of his DNV and LV shares (75% UVA) of returning 2004 voters.
Table 8: Election Calculator True Vote based on 2008 National Exit Poll vote shares and 95% turnout of returning 2004 election voters.
Scenario 1. Obama’s 55.2% (15.8m.margin) is based on the recorded vote (Bush 50.7-Kerry 48.3%).
Scenario 2. Obama’s 57.5% (21.8m margin) is based on the unadjusted exit poll (Kerry 52.0-Bush 47.0%).
Note:
1. Obama’s pre-election registered voter (RV) share was 57.0% (75% UVA), exactly matching the sum of his DNV and LV shares (75% UVA).
2. In 2000, there were 5.4 million uncounted ballots; 3.4 million in 2004. Since 70-80% are Democratic, Obama’s share is 1-2% higher.
[code]
Table 1
2008 National Exit Poll
2004 Mix Voted Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 13% 17.08 71% 27% 2% 12.13 4.61 0.34
Kerry 37% 48.61 89% 9% 2% 43.26 4.37 0.97
Bush 46% 60.43 17% 82% 1% 10.27 49.55 0.60
Other 4% 5.25 66% 24% 10% 3.47 1.26 0.53
Total 100% 131.37 52.6% 45.5% 1.9% 69.13 59.80 2.44
Margin 9.33
Table 2
NEP First time voted?
Voted Mix Obama McCain Other
Yes 14.45 11% 69% 30% 1%
No 116.92 89% 50% 48% 2%
Total 131.37 100% 52.1% 46.0% 1.9%
Table 3
National Exit Poll DNV (13.0%) shares
Share Votes DNV Mix Obama McCain Other
11% 14.45 New 84.6% 69% 30% 1%
2% 2.63 Prior 15.4% 82% 13% 5%
13% 17.08 Total 100% 71.0% 27.4% 1.6%
Table 4
Calculated DNV (15.8%) shares
Share Votes DNV Mix Obama McCain Other
11.0% 14.45 New 69.6% 69% 30% 1%
4.80% 6.31 Prior 30.4% 82% 13% 5%
15.8% 20.76 Total 100% 73.0% 24.8% 2.2%
Table 5
Final November Pre-election Polls
Poll Obama McCain Other Undecided
LV (9) 51.00% 43.56% 1.50% 3.94%
RV (3) 52.33% 40.00% 1.50% 6.17%
Allocate undecided voters
Poll Obama McCain Other
LV 53.96% 44.55% 1.50%
RV 56.96% 41.55% 1.50%
Table 6
True Vote based on Obama’s 73% share of DNV and 54% share of returning (LV) voters.
2004 Mix Voted Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 15.80% 20.76 72.95% 24.83% 2.22% 15.14 5.15 0.46
Return 84.20% 110.61 54.00% 44.50% 1.50% 59.73 49.22 1.66
True Vote 100% 131.37 56.99% 41.39% 1.61% 74.87 54.38 2.12
Margin 20.50
Table 7
Calculate a plausible returning voter mix assuming 4.8% mortality and 95% turnout.
Scenario 1: Returning voters based on 2004 recorded vote
2004 Actual ExitP Voted Died Alive Turnout Voted08 NEP/Vote NEP/Alive
Kerry 48.27% 52.0% 59.03 2.83 56.20 95% 53.39 91.0% 86.5%
Bush 50.73% 47.0 62.04 2.98 59.06 95% 56.11 107.7% 102.3%
Other 1.00% 1.0% 1.22 0.06 1.16 95% 1.11 475.1% 451.3%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 122.30 5.87 116.43 95% 110.61 118.8% 112.8%
Turnout 2004 Mix Voted Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 20.76 71% 27% 2% 14.74 5.61 0.42
95% Kerry 40.6% 53.39 89% 9% 2% 47.52 4.81 1.07
95% Bush 42.7% 56.11 17% 82% 1% 9.54 46.01 0.56
95% Other 0.8% 1.11 66% 24% 10% 0.73 0.27 0.11
Total 100.0% 131.37 55.21% 43.15% 1.64% 72.53 56.69 2.15
Margin 15.84
Scenario 2: Returning voters based on 2004 unadjusted exit poll
2004 Actual ExitP Voted Died Alive Turnout Voted08 NEP/Vote NEP/Alive
Kerry 48.27% 52.0% 63.60 3.05 60.54 95% 57.52 84.5% 80.3%
Bush 50.73% 47.0% 57.48 2.76 54.72 95% 51.99 116.2% 110.4%
Other 1.00% 1.0% 1.22 0.06 1.16 95% 1.11 475.1% 451.3%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 122.30 5.87 116.43 95% 110.61 118.8% 112.8%
Turnout 2004 Mix Voted Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 20.76 71% 27% 2% 14.74 5.61 0.42
95% Kerry 43.8% 57.52 89% 9% 2% 51.19 5.18 1.15
95% Bush 39.6% 51.99 17% 82% 1% 8.84 42.63 0.52
95% Other 0.8% 1.11 66% 24% 10% 0.73 0.27 0.11
Total 100.0% 131.37 57.47% 40.86% 1.67% 75.50 53.68 2.20
Margin 21.82