TruthIsAll
02-16-2009, 10:06 PM
1988 Statistical Summary
Recorded, Uncounted, Morality, Turnout, New voters, True Vote
Swing vs. Red-shift
Exit Poll naysayers argue that Swing (Vote Share change from 2000 to 2004) should correlated with 2004 exit poll Red-shift. The premise has been proved logically false by US Count Votes.
In addition, naysayers did not consider the fact that the 2000 recorded vote is impossible on its face; there were 5.4 million uncounted votes. The naysayers may have proved that 2004 was stolen.
Based on national True vote shares, calculated Bush swing was -4.6%. In other words, Kerry's true vote margin was 4.6% higher than Gore. Based on 2000/2004 recorded vote shares, Bush swing was 3.0% with a 7.5% red-shift.
The summary tables show recorded swing vs red-shift and calculated True Vote swing vs. red-shift.
Recorded Swing:
Current recorded margin - previous recorded margin
Calculated (True) Swing:
Current calculated margin - previous calculated margin
Recorded Red-shift:
Current recorded margin - current exit poll margin
Calculated (True) Red-shift:
Current recorded margin - current calculated margin
* 2008 Uncounted vote is estimated as 3% of votes cast
Recorded Vote Prior Recorded
Total Dem Rep Other Unctd Cast Died Alive Turnout Turnout Dem Rep Other%
2008 131.37 69.46 59.94 1.98 4.06* 135.43 na na 96.8% 116.1 52.9% 45.6% 1.5%
2004 122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23 3.45 125.74 5.83 119.9 98.5% 104.1 48.3% 50.7% 1.0%
2000 105.42 51.00 50.46 3.95 5.41 110.83 5.14 105.7 95.2% 95.4 48.4% 47.9% 3.7%
1996 96.28 47.40 39.20 9.68 8.75 105.02 4.87 100.2 88.0% 95.6 49.2% 40.7% 10.1%
1992 104.42 44.91 39.11 20.41 9.45 113.88 5.28 108.6 97.9% 95.4 43.0% 37.4% 19.5%
1988 91.60 41.81 48.89 0.90 10.60 102.19 4.74 97.5 94.0% 91.6 45.6% 53.4% 1.0%
Tot/Avg 651.38 48.15% 46.00% 5.86% 6.40% 693.09 25.88 531.8 95.3% 506.6 48.1% 46.0% 5.9%
New Return Democratic Vote Shares Dem True Vote
Voters DNV% Voters DNV Dem Rep Other Return Dem Rep Other
2008 19.36 14.3% 85.7% 71% 89% 17% 66% 54.9% 57.2% 41.1% 1.7%
2004 21.63 17.2% 82.8% 57% 91% 10% 64% 52.2% 53.1% 45.6% 1.3%
2000 15.46 14.0% 86.0% 52% 82% 7% 40% 48.8% 49.2% 46.4% 4.4%
1996 9.45 9.0% 91.0% 54% 85% 13% 45% 52.0% 52.2% 39.1% 8.7%
1992 18.43 16.2% 83.8% 46% 83% 21% 50% 51.4% 50.6% 32.5% 16.9%
1988 10.83 10.6% 89.4% 47% 92% 19% 50% 50.2% 49.8% 49.1% 1.1%
Tot/Avg 13.07 13.7% 86.3% 54.5% 87.0% 14.5% 52.5% 51.6% 52.0% 42.3% 5.7%
TRUE VOTE CALCULATION
2008
Vote Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 19.4 14.3% 13.75 5.23 0.39 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 60.4 44.6% 53.72 5.43 1.21 89% 9% 2%
Bush 54.5 40.3% 9.27 44.73 0.55 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.2 0.9% 0.77 0.28 0.12 66% 24% 10%
Total 135.4 100.0% 77.51 55.67 2.26 57.2% 41.1% 1.7%
2004
Vote Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 21.6 17.2% 12.33 8.87 0.43 57% 41% 2%
Gore 51.7 41.1% 47.07 4.14 0.52 91% 8% 1%
Bush 48.5 38.6% 4.85 43.67 0.00 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.9 3.1% 2.47 0.66 0.73 64% 17% 19%
Total 125.7 100.0% 66.72 57.33 1.68 53.1% 45.6% 1.3%
2000
Vote Mix Gore Bush Other Gore Bush Other
DNV 15.5 14.0% 8.04 6.65 0.77 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 49.0 44.2% 40.18 7.35 1.47 82% 15% 3%
Dole 37.0 33.4% 2.59 33.69 0.74 7% 91% 2%
Other 9.3 8.4% 3.74 3.74 1.87 40% 40% 20%
Total 110.8 100.0% 54.55 51.43 4.85 49.2% 46.4% 4.4%
1996
Vote Mix Clinton Dole Other Clinton Dole Other
DNV 9.5 9.0% 5.10 3.21 1.13 54% 34% 12%
Clinton 43.6 41.6% 37.09 3.93 2.62 85% 9% 6%
Bush 33.6 32.0% 4.37 27.56 1.68 13% 82% 5%
Other 18.3 17.4% 8.24 6.41 3.66 45% 35% 20%
Total 105.0 100.0% 54.81 41.12 9.10 52.2% 39.1% 8.7%
1992
Vote Mix Clinton Bush Other Clinton Bush Other
DNV 18.4 16.2% 8.48 5.90 4.06 46% 32% 22%
Dukakis 46.5 40.8% 38.57 2.32 5.58 83% 5% 12%
Bush 48.1 42.3% 10.11 28.40 9.63 21% 59% 20%
Other 0.8 0.7% 0.42 0.42 0.00 50% 50% 0%
Total 113.9 100.0% 57.58 37.04 19.26 50.6% 32.5% 16.9%
1988
Vote Mix Dukakis Bush Other Dukakis Bush Other
DNV 10.8 10.6% 5.09 5.52 0.22 47% 51% 2%
Mondale 39.0 38.2% 35.88 2.73 0.39 92% 7% 1%
Reagan 52.4 51.2% 9.95 41.89 0.52 19% 80% 1%
Total 102.2 100.0% 50.92 50.14 1.13 49.8% 49.1% 1.1%
SWING VS. RED-SHIFT
(2-party vote shares)
Average 1988-2004
Swing Redshift Diff
Calculated 4.6% 2.7% 2.0%
Recorded 3.2% -5.5% 8.6%
2008 Obama McCain Margin Swing R/S Diff
Calculated 58.2% 41.8% 16.4% 8.8% na na
Recorded 53.7% 46.3% 7.4% 9.8% na na
Exit poll 53.6% 46.4% 7.2%
2004 Kerry Bush Margin Swing R/S Diff
Calculated 53.8% 46.2% 7.6% 4.6% 2.5% 2.1%
Recorded 48.8% 51.2% -2.5% -3.0% -7.5% 4.5%
Exit poll 52.5% 47.5% 5.1%
2000 Gore Bush Margin Swing R/S Diff
Calculated 51.5% 48.5% 2.9% -11.3% -0.4% -10.9%
Recorded 50.3% 49.7% 0.5% -8.9% -2.8% -6.1%
Exit poll 51.7% 48.3% 3.3%
1996 Clinton Dole Margin Swing R/S Diff
Calculated 57.1% 42.9% 14.3% -7.4% 2.3% -9.8%
Recorded 54.7% 45.3% 9.5% 2.6% -2.5% 5.0%
Exit poll 56.0% 44.0% 11.9%
1992 Clinton Bush Margin Swing R/S Diff
Calculated 60.9% 39.1% 21.7% 20.9% 8.7% 12.2%
Recorded 53.5% 46.5% 6.9% 14.7% -6.1% 20.8%
Exit poll 56.5% 43.5% 13.0%
1988 Dukakis Bush Margin Swing R/S Diff
Calculated 50.4% 49.6% 0.8% 16.4% 0.2% 16.2%
Recorded 46.1% 53.9% -7.8% 10.6% -8.4% 19.0%
Exit poll 50.3% 49.7% 0.6%
Recorded, Uncounted, Morality, Turnout, New voters, True Vote
Swing vs. Red-shift
Exit Poll naysayers argue that Swing (Vote Share change from 2000 to 2004) should correlated with 2004 exit poll Red-shift. The premise has been proved logically false by US Count Votes.
In addition, naysayers did not consider the fact that the 2000 recorded vote is impossible on its face; there were 5.4 million uncounted votes. The naysayers may have proved that 2004 was stolen.
Based on national True vote shares, calculated Bush swing was -4.6%. In other words, Kerry's true vote margin was 4.6% higher than Gore. Based on 2000/2004 recorded vote shares, Bush swing was 3.0% with a 7.5% red-shift.
The summary tables show recorded swing vs red-shift and calculated True Vote swing vs. red-shift.
Recorded Swing:
Current recorded margin - previous recorded margin
Calculated (True) Swing:
Current calculated margin - previous calculated margin
Recorded Red-shift:
Current recorded margin - current exit poll margin
Calculated (True) Red-shift:
Current recorded margin - current calculated margin
* 2008 Uncounted vote is estimated as 3% of votes cast
Recorded Vote Prior Recorded
Total Dem Rep Other Unctd Cast Died Alive Turnout Turnout Dem Rep Other%
2008 131.37 69.46 59.94 1.98 4.06* 135.43 na na 96.8% 116.1 52.9% 45.6% 1.5%
2004 122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23 3.45 125.74 5.83 119.9 98.5% 104.1 48.3% 50.7% 1.0%
2000 105.42 51.00 50.46 3.95 5.41 110.83 5.14 105.7 95.2% 95.4 48.4% 47.9% 3.7%
1996 96.28 47.40 39.20 9.68 8.75 105.02 4.87 100.2 88.0% 95.6 49.2% 40.7% 10.1%
1992 104.42 44.91 39.11 20.41 9.45 113.88 5.28 108.6 97.9% 95.4 43.0% 37.4% 19.5%
1988 91.60 41.81 48.89 0.90 10.60 102.19 4.74 97.5 94.0% 91.6 45.6% 53.4% 1.0%
Tot/Avg 651.38 48.15% 46.00% 5.86% 6.40% 693.09 25.88 531.8 95.3% 506.6 48.1% 46.0% 5.9%
New Return Democratic Vote Shares Dem True Vote
Voters DNV% Voters DNV Dem Rep Other Return Dem Rep Other
2008 19.36 14.3% 85.7% 71% 89% 17% 66% 54.9% 57.2% 41.1% 1.7%
2004 21.63 17.2% 82.8% 57% 91% 10% 64% 52.2% 53.1% 45.6% 1.3%
2000 15.46 14.0% 86.0% 52% 82% 7% 40% 48.8% 49.2% 46.4% 4.4%
1996 9.45 9.0% 91.0% 54% 85% 13% 45% 52.0% 52.2% 39.1% 8.7%
1992 18.43 16.2% 83.8% 46% 83% 21% 50% 51.4% 50.6% 32.5% 16.9%
1988 10.83 10.6% 89.4% 47% 92% 19% 50% 50.2% 49.8% 49.1% 1.1%
Tot/Avg 13.07 13.7% 86.3% 54.5% 87.0% 14.5% 52.5% 51.6% 52.0% 42.3% 5.7%
TRUE VOTE CALCULATION
2008
Vote Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 19.4 14.3% 13.75 5.23 0.39 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 60.4 44.6% 53.72 5.43 1.21 89% 9% 2%
Bush 54.5 40.3% 9.27 44.73 0.55 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.2 0.9% 0.77 0.28 0.12 66% 24% 10%
Total 135.4 100.0% 77.51 55.67 2.26 57.2% 41.1% 1.7%
2004
Vote Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 21.6 17.2% 12.33 8.87 0.43 57% 41% 2%
Gore 51.7 41.1% 47.07 4.14 0.52 91% 8% 1%
Bush 48.5 38.6% 4.85 43.67 0.00 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.9 3.1% 2.47 0.66 0.73 64% 17% 19%
Total 125.7 100.0% 66.72 57.33 1.68 53.1% 45.6% 1.3%
2000
Vote Mix Gore Bush Other Gore Bush Other
DNV 15.5 14.0% 8.04 6.65 0.77 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 49.0 44.2% 40.18 7.35 1.47 82% 15% 3%
Dole 37.0 33.4% 2.59 33.69 0.74 7% 91% 2%
Other 9.3 8.4% 3.74 3.74 1.87 40% 40% 20%
Total 110.8 100.0% 54.55 51.43 4.85 49.2% 46.4% 4.4%
1996
Vote Mix Clinton Dole Other Clinton Dole Other
DNV 9.5 9.0% 5.10 3.21 1.13 54% 34% 12%
Clinton 43.6 41.6% 37.09 3.93 2.62 85% 9% 6%
Bush 33.6 32.0% 4.37 27.56 1.68 13% 82% 5%
Other 18.3 17.4% 8.24 6.41 3.66 45% 35% 20%
Total 105.0 100.0% 54.81 41.12 9.10 52.2% 39.1% 8.7%
1992
Vote Mix Clinton Bush Other Clinton Bush Other
DNV 18.4 16.2% 8.48 5.90 4.06 46% 32% 22%
Dukakis 46.5 40.8% 38.57 2.32 5.58 83% 5% 12%
Bush 48.1 42.3% 10.11 28.40 9.63 21% 59% 20%
Other 0.8 0.7% 0.42 0.42 0.00 50% 50% 0%
Total 113.9 100.0% 57.58 37.04 19.26 50.6% 32.5% 16.9%
1988
Vote Mix Dukakis Bush Other Dukakis Bush Other
DNV 10.8 10.6% 5.09 5.52 0.22 47% 51% 2%
Mondale 39.0 38.2% 35.88 2.73 0.39 92% 7% 1%
Reagan 52.4 51.2% 9.95 41.89 0.52 19% 80% 1%
Total 102.2 100.0% 50.92 50.14 1.13 49.8% 49.1% 1.1%
SWING VS. RED-SHIFT
(2-party vote shares)
Average 1988-2004
Swing Redshift Diff
Calculated 4.6% 2.7% 2.0%
Recorded 3.2% -5.5% 8.6%
2008 Obama McCain Margin Swing R/S Diff
Calculated 58.2% 41.8% 16.4% 8.8% na na
Recorded 53.7% 46.3% 7.4% 9.8% na na
Exit poll 53.6% 46.4% 7.2%
2004 Kerry Bush Margin Swing R/S Diff
Calculated 53.8% 46.2% 7.6% 4.6% 2.5% 2.1%
Recorded 48.8% 51.2% -2.5% -3.0% -7.5% 4.5%
Exit poll 52.5% 47.5% 5.1%
2000 Gore Bush Margin Swing R/S Diff
Calculated 51.5% 48.5% 2.9% -11.3% -0.4% -10.9%
Recorded 50.3% 49.7% 0.5% -8.9% -2.8% -6.1%
Exit poll 51.7% 48.3% 3.3%
1996 Clinton Dole Margin Swing R/S Diff
Calculated 57.1% 42.9% 14.3% -7.4% 2.3% -9.8%
Recorded 54.7% 45.3% 9.5% 2.6% -2.5% 5.0%
Exit poll 56.0% 44.0% 11.9%
1992 Clinton Bush Margin Swing R/S Diff
Calculated 60.9% 39.1% 21.7% 20.9% 8.7% 12.2%
Recorded 53.5% 46.5% 6.9% 14.7% -6.1% 20.8%
Exit poll 56.5% 43.5% 13.0%
1988 Dukakis Bush Margin Swing R/S Diff
Calculated 50.4% 49.6% 0.8% 16.4% 0.2% 16.2%
Recorded 46.1% 53.9% -7.8% 10.6% -8.4% 19.0%
Exit poll 50.3% 49.7% 0.6%