This simplified analysis shows that by considering just the preliminary 12:22am National Exit Poll (NEP) "Voted 2000" shares of returning third-party voters, Kerry won by 50.6-48.7% share. This closely matched the 12:22am NEP Gender crosstab (50.8-48.2) and the 12:40am State EP Composite (50.3-49.1) shares. The NEP and Composite updates each adjusted the raw precinct polling data to match pre-election polls.

In this analysis, Kerry and Bush were assumed to have had equal shares of new, uncounted and returning Gore/Bush voters. The fact that Kerry still won, despite not including these voting blocs which he also won easily, is a graphic illustration that the election was obviously stolen.

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The 2000 election must be considered as the basis for analyzing the 2004 theft.

In 2000, 105.4m votes were recorded.
Gore won by an official 540,000 margin (51.0-50.45m).
But the U.S. Census determined that 110.8m votes were cast (5.4m uncounted).
Approximately 4.0m (75%) were Gore votes.
Therefore, Gore's True Vote margin was at least 3.2m (55-51.8).

Nader and other third parties had 3.95m votes.

Of the 105.4m voters in 2000:
5.0m died; 5.0m did not vote.
and so 95.4m returned to vote in 2004.

There were 122.3m votes recorded in 2004.
Therefore, 26.9m (122.3-95.4) were new voters.
We assume that they were equally split at 13.4m between Kerry and Bush

Assuming zero defections:
46.2m Gore voters voted for Kerry.
45.6m Bush voters voted for Bush.

Returning Nader/other 2000 voters:
Approximately 3.6 of 3.95m returned to vote in 2004.
The NEP indicates Kerry won this group by 64-17%, a 1.7m margin.
2.3m voted for Kerry (64%)
0.6m voted for Bush (17%)
0.7m to third parties (19%)

Based on the above assumptions:
Kerry = 61.9m = 46.2 + 2.3 +13.4 (50.6%)
Bush = 59.6m = 45.6 + 0.6 +13.4 (48.7%)
(exact match to the 12:22am NEP Gender demographic)

These Bush states were actually won by Kerry (39 electoral votes):
FL (27), IA (7), NM (5)

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Assumptions(3-5) favored Bush:

1- Equal Gore/Bush voter mortality
2- Equal Gore/Bush voter turnout in 2004

3- Zero uncounted votes:
In 2004, 122.3m votes were recorded.
The U.S. Census reported 125.7m votes were cast.
Kerry won 70-80% of 3.4m uncounted votes.

4- Equal Kerry/Bush new voter split:
The 12:22am NEP indicates Kerry won new voters by 57-41%.

5- Equal Gore/Bush 2000 voter defection:
The NEP indicates that 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush and 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry.

Even though Kerry led the 12:22am NEP, it understated his True Vote share.
Edison-Mitofsky adjusted the preliminary polls as evidenced by
1)the 12:40am Composite state exit polls and
2)the 39/Gore 41 Bush "Voted in 2000" weights.

Bush had 50.5m votes in 2000.
Approximately 2.5m Bush voters died and 2.5m did not vote in 2004.
Therefore, a maximum of 45.5m former Bush voters came to the polls in 2004.
But according to the 12:22am NEP, he had 41% (50.1m) of 122.3m votes.

The 12:22am NEP inflated the number of Bush 2000 voters by 4.6m (50.1-45.5).
Even so, Kerry won the 12:22am NEP "How Voted" survey by 51.4-47.6%.

The Final NEP (13660) was FORCED to match the recorded vote: Bush 50.7-48.3%.

Let's look at this another way:
According to the 12:22am NEP, 4.5m (10%) of returning Bush voters voted for Kerry.
Therefore only 41.0 former Bush voters returned to vote for Bush.
Since he had 62.0m recorded votes in 2004, he had to find 21.0m new voters.
They had to be a combination of three groups: returning Gore, Nader and new voters.
According to the NEP, he won 3.7m Gore voters and 0.6m Nader voters.
That means he needed 16.7m (55.1%) of 30.3m new voters.
But according to the NEP, he had just 41% (12.3m)
So his total vote was 57.6m = 41.0+ 3.7 +0.6 +12.3

******************************************************

NOW LET'S CALCULATE THE TRUE VOTE

30m New Voters:
Kerry won 57%, a 4.8m margin (17.1-12.3m).

Defectors:
-Kerry won 10% (4.6m) of returning Bush voters.
-Bush won 8% (3.7m) of Gore voters.
(net 0.9m Kerry margin).

Uncounted votes:
Kerry won 2.0 of 2.7m (1.3m margin).

The True Vote: Kerry wins by 10.2m
Kerry: 68.5m = 46.2 Gore +4.6 Bush-3.7 defectors+17.1 new+2.3 other+2.0 uncounted
Bush : 58.3m = 45.6 Bush +3.7 Gore-4.6 defectors+12.3 new+0.6 other+0.7 uncounted


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The 2004 vote adjusted for returning Nader/other 3rd party voters

[code]
2000 Recorded 2004 Recorded 2004 Adjusted
State Gore Bush Nader Other Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Flipped
Total 48.38% 47.87% 2.73% 1.02% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% 50.78% 48.50% 0.71% to Bush

AL 41.6% 56.5% 1.1% 0.8% 36.8% 62.5% 0.7% 42.8% 56.8% 0.37%
AK 27.7% 58.6% 10.1% 3.6% 35.5% 61.1% 3.4% 36.4% 61.0% 2.61%
AZ 44.7% 51.0% 3.0% 1.4% 44.4% 54.9% 0.7% 47.5% 51.7% 0.83%
AR 45.9% 51.3% 1.5% 1.4% 44.5% 54.3% 1.1% 47.7% 51.8% 0.54%
CA 53.4% 41.7% 3.8% 1.1% 54.3% 44.4% 1.3% 56.6% 42.5% 0.93%

CO 42.4% 50.8% 5.3% 1.6% 47.0% 51.7% 1.3% 46.8% 51.9% 1.30%
CT 55.9% 38.4% 4.4% 1.2% 54.3% 43.9% 1.7% 59.5% 39.4% 1.07%
DE 55.0% 41.9% 2.5% 0.6% 53.3% 45.8% 0.9% 57.0% 42.4% 0.60%
DC 85.2% 9.0% 5.2% 0.7% 89.2% 9.3% 1.5% 88.9% 10.0% 1.12%
FL 48.8% 48.8% 1.6% 0.7% 47.1% 52.1% 0.8% 50.3% 49.2% 0.44% flip

GA 43.0% 54.7% 0.5% 1.8% 41.4% 58.0% 0.7% 44.5% 55.1% 0.45%
HI 55.8% 37.5% 5.9% 0.9% 54.0% 45.3% 0.7% 60.1% 38.6% 1.28%
ID 27.6% 67.2% 2.5% 2.7% 30.3% 68.4% 1.4% 31.0% 68.1% 0.99%
IL 54.6% 42.6% 2.2% 0.6% 54.8% 44.5% 0.7% 56.4% 43.1% 0.54%
IN 41.0% 56.6% 0.8% 1.5% 39.3% 59.9% 0.8% 42.5% 57.0% 0.44%

IA 48.5% 48.2% 2.2% 1.0% 49.2% 49.9% 0.9% 50.6% 48.8% 0.62% flip
KS 37.2% 58.0% 3.4% 1.4% 36.6% 62.0% 1.4% 40.3% 58.8% 0.90%
KY 41.4% 56.5% 1.5% 0.6% 39.7% 59.6% 0.8% 42.7% 56.9% 0.40%
LA 44.9% 52.6% 1.2% 1.4% 42.2% 56.7% 1.1% 46.5% 53.0% 0.49%
ME 49.1% 44.0% 5.7% 1.2% 53.6% 44.6% 1.9% 53.5% 45.2% 1.32%

MD 56.6% 40.2% 2.7% 0.6% 55.9% 42.9% 1.2% 58.7% 40.7% 0.62%
MA 59.8% 32.5% 6.4% 1.3% 61.9% 36.8% 1.3% 64.7% 33.8% 1.46%
MI 51.3% 46.1% 2.0% 0.6% 51.2% 47.8% 1.0% 52.9% 46.6% 0.49%
MN 47.9% 45.5% 5.2% 1.4% 51.1% 47.6% 1.3% 52.1% 46.6% 1.25%
MS 40.7% 57.6% 0.8% 0.9% 39.8% 59.4% 0.8% 41.8% 57.9% 0.32%

MO 47.1% 50.4% 1.6% 0.9% 46.1% 53.3% 0.6% 48.7% 50.8% 0.47%
MT 33.4% 58.4% 5.9% 2.3% 38.6% 59.1% 2.4% 38.6% 59.8% 1.56%
NE 33.3% 62.2% 3.5% 1.0% 32.7% 65.9% 1.4% 36.1% 63.0% 0.86%
NV 46.0% 49.5% 2.5% 2.0% 47.9% 50.5% 1.7% 48.9% 50.3% 0.86%
NH 46.8% 48.1% 3.9% 1.2% 50.2% 48.9% 0.9% 50.1% 48.9% 0.97%

NJ 56.1% 40.3% 3.0% 0.6% 52.9% 46.2% 0.8% 58.4% 40.9% 0.68%
NM 47.9% 47.8% 3.6% 0.7% 49.0% 49.8% 1.1% 50.6% 48.6% 0.81% flip
NY 60.2% 35.2% 3.6% 1.0% 58.4% 40.1% 1.5% 63.1% 36.0% 0.87%
NC 43.2% 56.0% 0.0% 0.8% 43.6% 56.0% 0.4% 43.7% 56.2% 0.15%
ND 33.1% 60.7% 3.3% 3.0% 35.5% 62.9% 1.6% 37.1% 61.7% 1.20%

OH 46.5% 50.0% 2.5% 1.1% 48.7% 50.8% 0.5% 48.7% 50.6% 0.68%
OK 38.4% 60.3% 0.0% 1.3% 34.4% 65.6% 0.0% 39.2% 60.5% 0.24%
OR 47.0% 46.5% 5.0% 1.5% 51.3% 47.2% 1.5% 51.1% 47.6% 1.24%
PA 50.6% 46.4% 2.1% 0.9% 50.9% 48.4% 0.7% 52.5% 46.9% 0.56%
RI 61.0% 31.9% 6.1% 1.0% 59.4% 38.7% 1.9% 65.5% 33.1% 1.35%

SC 40.9% 56.8% 1.5% 0.8% 40.9% 58.0% 1.1% 42.4% 57.2% 0.43%
SD 37.6% 60.3% 0.0% 2.1% 38.4% 59.9% 1.6% 38.9% 60.7% 0.41%
TN 47.3% 51.1% 1.0% 0.6% 42.5% 56.8% 0.7% 48.3% 51.4% 0.30%
TX 38.0% 59.3% 2.2% 0.6% 38.2% 61.1% 0.7% 39.7% 59.8% 0.52%
UT 26.3% 66.8% 4.7% 2.2% 26.0% 71.5% 2.5% 30.7% 68.0% 1.30%

VT 50.6% 40.7% 6.9% 1.7% 58.9% 38.8% 2.3% 56.2% 42.2% 1.65%
VA 44.4% 52.5% 2.2% 0.9% 45.5% 53.7% 0.8% 46.4% 53.0% 0.59%
WA 50.1% 44.6% 4.1% 1.2% 52.8% 45.6% 1.5% 53.5% 45.5% 1.01%
WV 45.6% 51.9% 1.6% 0.8% 43.2% 56.1% 0.7% 47.2% 52.3% 0.47%
WI 47.8% 47.6% 3.6% 0.9% 49.7% 49.3% 1.0% 50.7% 48.4% 0.87%
WY 27.7% 67.8% 2.1% 2.4% 29.1% 68.9% 2.1% 30.6% 68.5% 0.86%