TruthIsAll
12-30-2008, 05:42 PM
2004-2008 National Exit Poll: Preliminary, Final and the True Vote
The tables below show weights and vote shares for the 2004 Preliminary and Final National Exit Poll for major demographic categories. The returning voter mix for the Voted 2000 category the was impossible. In all the other categories, the weights and/or the vote shares also had to be "adjusted" to to force a match to the recorded vote.
The Election Calculator model determined the 2004 True Vote based on the preliminary 2004 NEP vote shares and a plausible returning mix. Kerry's 53.2% True Vote share is 4.9% higher than his recorded 48.3% share.
In 2008, only the Final is available. The True Vote was calculated using the Final vote shares and a plausible returning voter mix. Obama's 57.5% True Vote share is 4.6% higher than his recorded 52.9% share. It is likely that the unadjusted 2008 exit poll will also show a 3-5%% increase in Obama's vote share.
NATIONAL EXIT POLL
2004 PRELIMINARY 2004 FINAL 2008 FINAL
12:22am (13047) 2pm (13660 resp)
VOTED PRIOR ELECTION
Gore -2%; Bush +2%
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
DNV 20.79 17% 57% 41% 2% 17% 54% 45% 1% DNV 13% 71% 27% 2%
Gore 47.70 39% 91% 8% 1% 37% 90% 10% 0% Kerry 37% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 50.14 41% 10% 90% 0% 43% 9% 91% 0% Bush 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 3.67 3% 64% 17% 19% 3% 71% 21% 8% Other 4% 66% 24% 10%
Share 100% 51.20% 47.50% 1.30% 100% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 100.0% 52.62% 45.94% 1.44%
Votes 122.30 122.30 62.62 58.09 1.59 122.30 59.29 62.50 0.50 131.37 69.13 60.35 1.89
2004 TRUE VOTE
2004 Calculated Vote
2000 Recorded Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Weight Kerry Bush Other
DNV 25.62 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 51.00 4.04 55.04 2.69 52.36 95% 49.74 39.6% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 50.46 1.18 51.64 2.52 49.12 95% 46.67 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.95 0.16 4.11 0.20 3.91 95% 3.72 2.96% 64% 17% 19%
Total 105.42 5.38 110.80 5.41 105.39 100.1 125.74 100% 53.21% 45.42% 1.36%
Cast 125.74 66.91 57.11 1.72
Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23
2008 TRUE VOTE
2008 Calculated Vote
2004 ExitP Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Weight Obama McCain Other
DNV 21.71 16.0% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 63.59 1.79 65.38 3.14 62.25 95% 59.13 43.7% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 57.47 1.62 59.09 2.84 56.26 95% 53.44 39.5% 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.23 0.03 1.26 0.06 1.20 95% 1.14 0.84% 66% 24% 10%
Total 122.30 3.45 125.74 6.04 119.70 113.7 135.43 100% 57.51% 40.82% 1.67%
Cast 135.43 77.88 55.28 2.27
Recorded 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%
131.37 69.46 59.93 1.98
2004 PRELIMINARY 2004 FINAL 2008 FINAL
12:22am (13047) 2pm (13660 resp)
CATEGORY Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Obama McCain Other
Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00 48.27% 50.73% 1.0% 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%
Votes 59.03 62.04 1.22 59.03 62.04 1.22 69.46 59.93 1.98
Exit Poll Avg 50.85% 47.88% 1.27% 47.95% 51.08% 0.97% 52.69% 45.57% 1.74%
Votes 62.19 58.55 1.55 58.64 62.47 1.19 69.22 59.86 2.29
Gender 50.78% 48.22% 1.00% 47.78% 51.22% 1.00% 52.71% 45.35% 1.94%
Party-ID 51.07% 47.85% 1.08% 47.89% 51.22% 0.89% 52.67% 45.14% 2.19%
Voted Prior 51.20% 47.50% 1.30% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 52.62% 45.94% 1.44%
Region 50.53% 47.95% 1.52% 48.24% 51.08% 0.68% 52.76% 45.56% 1.68%
Education 50.43% 48.18% 1.39% 47.82% 51.24% 0.94% 52.31% 45.93% 1.76%
Race 50.98% 47.61% 1.41% 47.81% 50.99% 1.20% 52.82% 45.57% 1.61%
Age 50.26% 47.69% 2.05% 47.96% 51.28% 0.76% 52.29% 45.71% 2.00%
Income 51.07% 47.75% 1.18% 48.13% 51.02% 0.85% 52.96% 44.99% 2.05%
Ideology 50.18% 48.60% 1.22% 47.25% 51.54% 1.21% 52.56% 45.88% 1.56%
Religion 50.78% 48.01% 1.21% 47.99% 50.94% 1.07% 53.07% 45.58% 1.35%
Military 51.20% 47.62% 1.18% 48.38% 50.44% 1.18% 52.65% 45.50% 1.85%
Decided 51.23% 47.93% 0.84% 47.50% 51.22% 1.28% 52.67% 45.81% 1.52%
Location 51.40% 47.47% 1.13% 48.14% 50.73% 1.13% 52.88% 45.41% 1.71%
2004 PRELIMINARY 2004 FINAL 2008 FINAL
12:22am (13047) 2pm (13660 resp)
GENDER
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
Male 56.26 46.0% 47% 52% 1% 46% 44% 55% 1% 46% 49% 48% 3%
Fem 66.04 54.0% 54% 45% 1% 54% 51% 48% 1% 54% 56% 43% 1%
Share 100% 50.78% 48.22% 1.00% 100% 47.78% 51.22% 1.00% 100% 52.71% 45.35% 1.94%
Votes 122.30 62.10 58.97 1.22 122.30 58.43 62.64 1.22 131.37 69.25 59.58 2.55
Dem -1%; Rep +2%; Ind -1%
PARTY ID
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
Dem 46.47 38% 91% 9% 0% 37% 89% 11% 0% 39% 89% 10% 1%
Rep 42.80 35% 7% 93% 0% 37% 6% 93% 1% 31% 9% 89% 2%
Ind 33.02 27% 52% 44% 4% 26% 49% 49% 2% 30% 52% 44% 4%
Share 100% 51.07% 47.85% 1.08% 100% 47.89% 51.22% 0.89% 100% 52.67% 45.14% 2.19%
Votes 122.30 62.46 58.52 1.32 122.30 58.57 62.64 1.09 131.37 69.19 59.30 2.88
South +1%; West -1%
REGION
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
East 26.90 22% 58% 41% 1% 22% 56% 43% 1% 22% 59% 40% 1%
Midw 31.80 26% 50% 49% 1% 26% 48% 51% 1% 24% 54% 44% 2%
South 37.91 31% 44% 54% 2% 32% 42% 58% 0% 32% 46% 53% 1%
West 25.68 21% 53% 45% 2% 20% 50% 49% 1% 22% 55% 42% 3%
Share Total 100% 50.53% 47.95% 1.52% 100% 48.24% 51.08% 0.68% 100% 52.76% 45.56% 1.68%
Votes 122.30 61.80 58.64 1.86 122.30 59.00 62.47 0.83 131.37 69.31 59.85 2.21
Some college+1%; Post Grad -1%
EDUCATION
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
NoHS 4.89 4% 53% 46% 1% 4% 50% 49% 1% 4% 63% 36% 1%
HSGrad 26.90 22% 50% 48% 2% 22% 47% 52% 1% 20% 52% 47% 1%
College 37.91 31% 48% 51% 1% 32% 46% 54% 0% 31% 51% 47% 2%
ColGrad 31.80 26% 49% 50% 1% 26% 46% 52% 2% 28% 49% 49% 2%
PostG 20.79 17% 57% 41% 2% 16% 55% 44% 1% 17% 58% 40% 2%
Share 100% 50.43% 48.18% 1.39% 100% 47.82% 51.24% 0.94% 100% 52.31% 45.93% 1.76%
Votes 122.30 61.67 58.92 1.70 122.30 58.48 62.66 1.15 131.37 68.72 60.34 2.31
2004 PRELIMINARY 2004 FINAL 2008 FINAL
12:22am (13047) 2pm (13660 resp)
RACE AND GENDER
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
WMale 44.03 36% 40% 59% 1% 36% 37% 62% 1% 36% 41% 57% 2%
WFem 50.14 41% 47% 51% 2% 41% 44% 55% 1% 39% 46% 53% 1%
NwMale 12.23 10% 73% 26% 1% 10% 67% 30% 3% 11% 76% 22% 2%
NwFem 15.90 13% 77% 22% 1% 13% 75% 24% 1% 14% 84% 14% 2%
Share 100% 50.98% 47.61% 1.41% 100% 47.81% 50.99% 1.20% 100% 52.82% 45.57% 1.61%
Votes 122.30 62.35 58.22 1.72 122.30 58.47 62.36 1.47 131.37 69.39 59.87 2.12
AGE
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
18-29 20.79 17% 56% 42% 2% 17% 54% 45% 1% 18% 66% 32% 2%
30-44 35.47 29% 48% 49% 3% 29% 46% 53% 1% 29% 52% 46% 2%
45-59 36.69 30% 51% 47% 2% 30% 48% 51% 1% 37% 49% 49% 2%
60+ 29.35 24% 48% 51% 1% 24% 46% 54% 0% 16% 45% 53% 2%
Share 100% 50.26% 47.69% 2.05% 100% 47.96% 51.28% 0.76% 100% 52.29% 45.71% 2.00%
Votes 122.30 61.47 58.32 2.51 122.30 58.65 62.71 0.93 131.37 68.69 60.05 2.63
0-15 -1%; 75-100 +1%
INCOME
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
0-15K 11.01 9% 65% 34% 1% 8% 63% 36% 1% 6% 73% 25% 2%
15-30 18.34 15% 60% 39% 1% 15% 57% 42% 1% 12% 60% 37% 3%
30-50 26.90 22% 53% 46% 1% 22% 50% 49% 1% 19% 55% 43% 2%
50-75 28.13 23% 46% 53% 1% 23% 43% 56% 1% 22% 48% 49% 3%
75-100 15.90 13% 48% 51% 1% 14% 45% 55% 0% 15% 51% 48% 1%
100-150 13.45 11% 43% 55% 2% 11% 42% 57% 1% 14% 48% 51% 1%
150-200 4.89 4% 43% 55% 2% 4% 42% 58% 0% 6% 48% 50% 2%
200+ 3.67 3% 43% 55% 2% 3% 35% 63% 2% 6% 52% 46% 2%
Share 100% 51.07% 47.75% 1.18% 100% 48.13% 51.02% 0.85% 100% 52.96% 44.99% 2.05%
Votes 122.30 62.46 58.40 1.44 122.30 58.86 62.39 1.04 131.37 69.57 59.10 2.69
Lib -1%; Con+1%
IDEOLOGY
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
Lib 26.90 22% 86% 12% 2% 21% 85% 13% 2% 22% 88% 10% 2%
Mod 55.03 45% 57% 42% 1% 45% 54% 45% 1% 44% 60% 39% 1%
Con 40.36 33% 17% 82% 1% 34% 15% 84% 1% 34% 20% 78% 2%
Share 100% 50.18% 48.60% 1.22% 100% 47.25% 51.54% 1.21% 100% 52.56% 45.88% 1.56%
Votes 122.30 61.37 59.44 1.49 122.30 57.78 63.03 1.48 131.37 69.05 60.27 2.05
2004 PRELIMINARY 2004 FINAL 2008 FINAL
12:22am (13047) 2pm (13660 resp)
RELIGION
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
Prot 64.82 53% 43% 56% 1% 53% 40% 59% 1% 54% 45% 54% 1%
Cath 33.02 27% 50% 49% 1% 27% 47% 52% 1% 27% 54% 45% 1%
Jewish 3.67 3% 78% 22% 0% 3% 74% 25% 1% 2% 78% 21% 1%
Other 8.56 7% 75% 22% 3% 7% 74% 24% 2% 6% 73% 22% 5%
None 12.23 10% 69% 29% 2% 10% 67% 32% 1% 11% 75% 23% 2%
Share 100% 50.78% 48.01% 1.21% Total 47.99% 50.94% 1.07% 100% 53.07% 45.58% 1.35%
Votes 122.30 62.10 58.71 1.48 122.30 58.69 62.30 1.31 131.37 69.72 59.88 1.77
MILITARY
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
Yes 22.01 18% 43% 55% 2% 18% 41% 57% 2% 18% 45% 54% 1%
No 100.28 82% 53% 46% 1% 82% 50% 49% 1% 82% 54% 44% 2%
Share 100% 51.20% 47.62% 1.18% 100% 48.38% 50.44% 1.18% 100% 52.65% 45.50% 1.85%
Votes 122.30 62.62 58.24 1.44 122.30 59.17 61.69 1.44 131.37 69.17 59.77 2.43
Today -1%; Last3 +1%
WHEN DECIDED
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
Today 7.34 6% 53% 40% 7% 5% 52% 45% 3% 4% 50% 45% 5%
3days 3.67 3% 53% 41% 6% 4% 55% 42% 3% 3% 46% 52% 2%
7days 2.45 2% 48% 50% 2% 2% 48% 51% 1% 3% 48% 50% 2%
30days 12.23 10% 60% 38% 2% 10% 54% 44% 2% 15% 54% 43% 3%
Over30 96.59 79% 50% 50% 0% 79% 46% 53% 1% 75% 53% 46% 1%
Share 100% 51.23% 47.93% 0.84% 100% 47.50% 51.22% 1.28% 100% 52.67% 45.81% 1.52%
Votes 122.30 62.65 58.62 1.03 122.30 58.09 62.64 1.57 131.37 69.19 60.18 2.00
LOCATION
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
BigCity 15.90 13% 64% 36% 0% 13% 61% 39% 0% 12% 64% 35% 1%
SmCity 22.01 18% 53% 45% 2% 18% 49% 49% 2% 18% 63% 35% 2%
Suburbs 55.04 45% 50% 49% 1% 45% 47% 52% 1% 50% 50% 48% 2%
SmTowns 9.78 8% 52% 46% 2% 8% 48% 50% 2% 8% 50% 48% 2%
Rural 19.57 16% 43% 56% 1% 16% 40% 59% 1% 12% 42% 57% 1%
Share 100% 51.40% 47.47% 1.13% 100% 48.14% 50.73% 1.13% 100% 52.88 45.41% 1.71%
Votes 122.30 62.86 58.06 1.38 122.30 58.87 62.04 1.38 131.37 69.47 59.66 2.25
The tables below show weights and vote shares for the 2004 Preliminary and Final National Exit Poll for major demographic categories. The returning voter mix for the Voted 2000 category the was impossible. In all the other categories, the weights and/or the vote shares also had to be "adjusted" to to force a match to the recorded vote.
The Election Calculator model determined the 2004 True Vote based on the preliminary 2004 NEP vote shares and a plausible returning mix. Kerry's 53.2% True Vote share is 4.9% higher than his recorded 48.3% share.
In 2008, only the Final is available. The True Vote was calculated using the Final vote shares and a plausible returning voter mix. Obama's 57.5% True Vote share is 4.6% higher than his recorded 52.9% share. It is likely that the unadjusted 2008 exit poll will also show a 3-5%% increase in Obama's vote share.
NATIONAL EXIT POLL
2004 PRELIMINARY 2004 FINAL 2008 FINAL
12:22am (13047) 2pm (13660 resp)
VOTED PRIOR ELECTION
Gore -2%; Bush +2%
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
DNV 20.79 17% 57% 41% 2% 17% 54% 45% 1% DNV 13% 71% 27% 2%
Gore 47.70 39% 91% 8% 1% 37% 90% 10% 0% Kerry 37% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 50.14 41% 10% 90% 0% 43% 9% 91% 0% Bush 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 3.67 3% 64% 17% 19% 3% 71% 21% 8% Other 4% 66% 24% 10%
Share 100% 51.20% 47.50% 1.30% 100% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 100.0% 52.62% 45.94% 1.44%
Votes 122.30 122.30 62.62 58.09 1.59 122.30 59.29 62.50 0.50 131.37 69.13 60.35 1.89
2004 TRUE VOTE
2004 Calculated Vote
2000 Recorded Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Weight Kerry Bush Other
DNV 25.62 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 51.00 4.04 55.04 2.69 52.36 95% 49.74 39.6% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 50.46 1.18 51.64 2.52 49.12 95% 46.67 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.95 0.16 4.11 0.20 3.91 95% 3.72 2.96% 64% 17% 19%
Total 105.42 5.38 110.80 5.41 105.39 100.1 125.74 100% 53.21% 45.42% 1.36%
Cast 125.74 66.91 57.11 1.72
Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23
2008 TRUE VOTE
2008 Calculated Vote
2004 ExitP Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Weight Obama McCain Other
DNV 21.71 16.0% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 63.59 1.79 65.38 3.14 62.25 95% 59.13 43.7% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 57.47 1.62 59.09 2.84 56.26 95% 53.44 39.5% 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.23 0.03 1.26 0.06 1.20 95% 1.14 0.84% 66% 24% 10%
Total 122.30 3.45 125.74 6.04 119.70 113.7 135.43 100% 57.51% 40.82% 1.67%
Cast 135.43 77.88 55.28 2.27
Recorded 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%
131.37 69.46 59.93 1.98
2004 PRELIMINARY 2004 FINAL 2008 FINAL
12:22am (13047) 2pm (13660 resp)
CATEGORY Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Obama McCain Other
Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00 48.27% 50.73% 1.0% 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%
Votes 59.03 62.04 1.22 59.03 62.04 1.22 69.46 59.93 1.98
Exit Poll Avg 50.85% 47.88% 1.27% 47.95% 51.08% 0.97% 52.69% 45.57% 1.74%
Votes 62.19 58.55 1.55 58.64 62.47 1.19 69.22 59.86 2.29
Gender 50.78% 48.22% 1.00% 47.78% 51.22% 1.00% 52.71% 45.35% 1.94%
Party-ID 51.07% 47.85% 1.08% 47.89% 51.22% 0.89% 52.67% 45.14% 2.19%
Voted Prior 51.20% 47.50% 1.30% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 52.62% 45.94% 1.44%
Region 50.53% 47.95% 1.52% 48.24% 51.08% 0.68% 52.76% 45.56% 1.68%
Education 50.43% 48.18% 1.39% 47.82% 51.24% 0.94% 52.31% 45.93% 1.76%
Race 50.98% 47.61% 1.41% 47.81% 50.99% 1.20% 52.82% 45.57% 1.61%
Age 50.26% 47.69% 2.05% 47.96% 51.28% 0.76% 52.29% 45.71% 2.00%
Income 51.07% 47.75% 1.18% 48.13% 51.02% 0.85% 52.96% 44.99% 2.05%
Ideology 50.18% 48.60% 1.22% 47.25% 51.54% 1.21% 52.56% 45.88% 1.56%
Religion 50.78% 48.01% 1.21% 47.99% 50.94% 1.07% 53.07% 45.58% 1.35%
Military 51.20% 47.62% 1.18% 48.38% 50.44% 1.18% 52.65% 45.50% 1.85%
Decided 51.23% 47.93% 0.84% 47.50% 51.22% 1.28% 52.67% 45.81% 1.52%
Location 51.40% 47.47% 1.13% 48.14% 50.73% 1.13% 52.88% 45.41% 1.71%
2004 PRELIMINARY 2004 FINAL 2008 FINAL
12:22am (13047) 2pm (13660 resp)
GENDER
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
Male 56.26 46.0% 47% 52% 1% 46% 44% 55% 1% 46% 49% 48% 3%
Fem 66.04 54.0% 54% 45% 1% 54% 51% 48% 1% 54% 56% 43% 1%
Share 100% 50.78% 48.22% 1.00% 100% 47.78% 51.22% 1.00% 100% 52.71% 45.35% 1.94%
Votes 122.30 62.10 58.97 1.22 122.30 58.43 62.64 1.22 131.37 69.25 59.58 2.55
Dem -1%; Rep +2%; Ind -1%
PARTY ID
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
Dem 46.47 38% 91% 9% 0% 37% 89% 11% 0% 39% 89% 10% 1%
Rep 42.80 35% 7% 93% 0% 37% 6% 93% 1% 31% 9% 89% 2%
Ind 33.02 27% 52% 44% 4% 26% 49% 49% 2% 30% 52% 44% 4%
Share 100% 51.07% 47.85% 1.08% 100% 47.89% 51.22% 0.89% 100% 52.67% 45.14% 2.19%
Votes 122.30 62.46 58.52 1.32 122.30 58.57 62.64 1.09 131.37 69.19 59.30 2.88
South +1%; West -1%
REGION
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
East 26.90 22% 58% 41% 1% 22% 56% 43% 1% 22% 59% 40% 1%
Midw 31.80 26% 50% 49% 1% 26% 48% 51% 1% 24% 54% 44% 2%
South 37.91 31% 44% 54% 2% 32% 42% 58% 0% 32% 46% 53% 1%
West 25.68 21% 53% 45% 2% 20% 50% 49% 1% 22% 55% 42% 3%
Share Total 100% 50.53% 47.95% 1.52% 100% 48.24% 51.08% 0.68% 100% 52.76% 45.56% 1.68%
Votes 122.30 61.80 58.64 1.86 122.30 59.00 62.47 0.83 131.37 69.31 59.85 2.21
Some college+1%; Post Grad -1%
EDUCATION
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
NoHS 4.89 4% 53% 46% 1% 4% 50% 49% 1% 4% 63% 36% 1%
HSGrad 26.90 22% 50% 48% 2% 22% 47% 52% 1% 20% 52% 47% 1%
College 37.91 31% 48% 51% 1% 32% 46% 54% 0% 31% 51% 47% 2%
ColGrad 31.80 26% 49% 50% 1% 26% 46% 52% 2% 28% 49% 49% 2%
PostG 20.79 17% 57% 41% 2% 16% 55% 44% 1% 17% 58% 40% 2%
Share 100% 50.43% 48.18% 1.39% 100% 47.82% 51.24% 0.94% 100% 52.31% 45.93% 1.76%
Votes 122.30 61.67 58.92 1.70 122.30 58.48 62.66 1.15 131.37 68.72 60.34 2.31
2004 PRELIMINARY 2004 FINAL 2008 FINAL
12:22am (13047) 2pm (13660 resp)
RACE AND GENDER
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
WMale 44.03 36% 40% 59% 1% 36% 37% 62% 1% 36% 41% 57% 2%
WFem 50.14 41% 47% 51% 2% 41% 44% 55% 1% 39% 46% 53% 1%
NwMale 12.23 10% 73% 26% 1% 10% 67% 30% 3% 11% 76% 22% 2%
NwFem 15.90 13% 77% 22% 1% 13% 75% 24% 1% 14% 84% 14% 2%
Share 100% 50.98% 47.61% 1.41% 100% 47.81% 50.99% 1.20% 100% 52.82% 45.57% 1.61%
Votes 122.30 62.35 58.22 1.72 122.30 58.47 62.36 1.47 131.37 69.39 59.87 2.12
AGE
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
18-29 20.79 17% 56% 42% 2% 17% 54% 45% 1% 18% 66% 32% 2%
30-44 35.47 29% 48% 49% 3% 29% 46% 53% 1% 29% 52% 46% 2%
45-59 36.69 30% 51% 47% 2% 30% 48% 51% 1% 37% 49% 49% 2%
60+ 29.35 24% 48% 51% 1% 24% 46% 54% 0% 16% 45% 53% 2%
Share 100% 50.26% 47.69% 2.05% 100% 47.96% 51.28% 0.76% 100% 52.29% 45.71% 2.00%
Votes 122.30 61.47 58.32 2.51 122.30 58.65 62.71 0.93 131.37 68.69 60.05 2.63
0-15 -1%; 75-100 +1%
INCOME
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
0-15K 11.01 9% 65% 34% 1% 8% 63% 36% 1% 6% 73% 25% 2%
15-30 18.34 15% 60% 39% 1% 15% 57% 42% 1% 12% 60% 37% 3%
30-50 26.90 22% 53% 46% 1% 22% 50% 49% 1% 19% 55% 43% 2%
50-75 28.13 23% 46% 53% 1% 23% 43% 56% 1% 22% 48% 49% 3%
75-100 15.90 13% 48% 51% 1% 14% 45% 55% 0% 15% 51% 48% 1%
100-150 13.45 11% 43% 55% 2% 11% 42% 57% 1% 14% 48% 51% 1%
150-200 4.89 4% 43% 55% 2% 4% 42% 58% 0% 6% 48% 50% 2%
200+ 3.67 3% 43% 55% 2% 3% 35% 63% 2% 6% 52% 46% 2%
Share 100% 51.07% 47.75% 1.18% 100% 48.13% 51.02% 0.85% 100% 52.96% 44.99% 2.05%
Votes 122.30 62.46 58.40 1.44 122.30 58.86 62.39 1.04 131.37 69.57 59.10 2.69
Lib -1%; Con+1%
IDEOLOGY
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
Lib 26.90 22% 86% 12% 2% 21% 85% 13% 2% 22% 88% 10% 2%
Mod 55.03 45% 57% 42% 1% 45% 54% 45% 1% 44% 60% 39% 1%
Con 40.36 33% 17% 82% 1% 34% 15% 84% 1% 34% 20% 78% 2%
Share 100% 50.18% 48.60% 1.22% 100% 47.25% 51.54% 1.21% 100% 52.56% 45.88% 1.56%
Votes 122.30 61.37 59.44 1.49 122.30 57.78 63.03 1.48 131.37 69.05 60.27 2.05
2004 PRELIMINARY 2004 FINAL 2008 FINAL
12:22am (13047) 2pm (13660 resp)
RELIGION
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
Prot 64.82 53% 43% 56% 1% 53% 40% 59% 1% 54% 45% 54% 1%
Cath 33.02 27% 50% 49% 1% 27% 47% 52% 1% 27% 54% 45% 1%
Jewish 3.67 3% 78% 22% 0% 3% 74% 25% 1% 2% 78% 21% 1%
Other 8.56 7% 75% 22% 3% 7% 74% 24% 2% 6% 73% 22% 5%
None 12.23 10% 69% 29% 2% 10% 67% 32% 1% 11% 75% 23% 2%
Share 100% 50.78% 48.01% 1.21% Total 47.99% 50.94% 1.07% 100% 53.07% 45.58% 1.35%
Votes 122.30 62.10 58.71 1.48 122.30 58.69 62.30 1.31 131.37 69.72 59.88 1.77
MILITARY
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
Yes 22.01 18% 43% 55% 2% 18% 41% 57% 2% 18% 45% 54% 1%
No 100.28 82% 53% 46% 1% 82% 50% 49% 1% 82% 54% 44% 2%
Share 100% 51.20% 47.62% 1.18% 100% 48.38% 50.44% 1.18% 100% 52.65% 45.50% 1.85%
Votes 122.30 62.62 58.24 1.44 122.30 59.17 61.69 1.44 131.37 69.17 59.77 2.43
Today -1%; Last3 +1%
WHEN DECIDED
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
Today 7.34 6% 53% 40% 7% 5% 52% 45% 3% 4% 50% 45% 5%
3days 3.67 3% 53% 41% 6% 4% 55% 42% 3% 3% 46% 52% 2%
7days 2.45 2% 48% 50% 2% 2% 48% 51% 1% 3% 48% 50% 2%
30days 12.23 10% 60% 38% 2% 10% 54% 44% 2% 15% 54% 43% 3%
Over30 96.59 79% 50% 50% 0% 79% 46% 53% 1% 75% 53% 46% 1%
Share 100% 51.23% 47.93% 0.84% 100% 47.50% 51.22% 1.28% 100% 52.67% 45.81% 1.52%
Votes 122.30 62.65 58.62 1.03 122.30 58.09 62.64 1.57 131.37 69.19 60.18 2.00
LOCATION
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Obama McCain Other
BigCity 15.90 13% 64% 36% 0% 13% 61% 39% 0% 12% 64% 35% 1%
SmCity 22.01 18% 53% 45% 2% 18% 49% 49% 2% 18% 63% 35% 2%
Suburbs 55.04 45% 50% 49% 1% 45% 47% 52% 1% 50% 50% 48% 2%
SmTowns 9.78 8% 52% 46% 2% 8% 48% 50% 2% 8% 50% 48% 2%
Rural 19.57 16% 43% 56% 1% 16% 40% 59% 1% 12% 42% 57% 1%
Share 100% 51.40% 47.47% 1.13% 100% 48.14% 50.73% 1.13% 100% 52.88 45.41% 1.71%
Votes 122.30 62.86 58.06 1.38 122.30 58.87 62.04 1.38 131.37 69.47 59.66 2.25