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View Full Version : Glimmer’s of Hope, or just a cruel hoax?



Code_Name_D
04-12-2009, 09:49 AM
Having high ranking economists insist that the recovery is just around the corner is nothing new. In fact it is one of the constants of economic reporting and counseling, regardless of how bad, or even how good things are, the recovery is always just around the corner.

The past few months should have placed a cap stone on many of these economic pontificators. But instead, with each failed prediction of recovery, they instead gain prominence. And this prominence and influence has grown to the point where even Obama himself is talking about “glimmers of hope.” This before the real work of economic reform and re-regulation has even been tackled on the floor of congress.

As it turns out there is a which-craft like reasoning for this. Economist, especially those on Osama’s economic “dream team” truly argue that the best way to turn the economy around is to wish it back to health. I only wish I was kidding. But to them, the economic down turn is only the consequence of easily spooked consumers that save rather than spend.

Convince the consumer to resume their reckless spending, and the economy recovers. The sort of evince that they would point to would be the resent “recovery” (as week as it is) of Wall Street, the profitability projections of certain banks taking in tarp money (kind of hard for them not to report a profit with injections worth billions of dollars), the fact that only a few banks have failed Obama’s stress testing (which many economist argued was too lax), the rise of housing values in certain markets (ignoring the notion held by many economist that this merely re-inflates the bubble), and even small swings in polling data calling the economy less dismal than before (even as unemployment continues to rise).

Even Obama (assuming that he is not stupid), has fallen under this spell of wishful thinking and has been recruited into the act. But I am not fooled for a moment, or are the hand full of real economists out their such as Paul Krugman and Dean Baker, who see more warning signs than signs of hope.

Thanks to Obama’s home buying program, places like Wichita, who have largely been overlooked by the housing bubble, and as a result are still relatively strong spots in the economy, are being dragged into the mortgage vortex. Home prices here have surged, along with fresh housing starts. The push to brake-up farm land into new subdivisions is now more intense than ever as speculators hope to move into the next hot bubble. Much of the so called housing recovery is built upon the backs of cities like Wichita.

This means that the signs of hope Obama is pointing too, are nothing more than carefully constructed statistical illusions intended to vindicate the economic pontificators.

Virgil
04-12-2009, 10:39 AM
This is the second point in the last blog entry of The Big Picture by Barry Ritholtz at http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/bear-market-rally-4/
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2) Beware the ‘Conspiracy of Optimists’: In the run up to the top of the bull market (October 2007), there is an overly positive view of the world, a misconception amongst the broader populace as to what is actually happening. Warning signs are ignored as foolish memes are promulgated.

Recall these absurd rationales:

• Damage from Subprime mortgages was “contained”
• The US economic slowdown would “decouple” from the rest of the world;
• The conundrum of ultralow interest rates were the result of a “excess savings”

All three of these proved false. And, to the astute investor, these all contained warnings of the coming investment storm. We are currently hearing similar foolishness from the same perennial cheerleaders. (See the “Green Shoots” from a recent NYT debate).

Four recent economic data points (ISM data, New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, and Non Farm Payroll) were all spun by Wall Street as if they were positive; if you dug beneath the headlines to review the actual data, they were all terrible.

Understand the difference between an economy that is improving versus one that “getting worse more slowly.” We are experiencing the latter.

Truedelphi
05-24-2009, 03:44 PM
Support the same ol' same ol' in terms of Treasury and The Federal Reserve.

But hey, it all works out quite well for Goldman Sachs.