TruthIsAll
11-18-2008, 05:26 PM
The 2008 Final NEP finally puts the 2004 Gote voter "false recall" canard to rest.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Final2008NEPScenarios.htm
The Gore voter "false recall" fallacy, designed to explain the impossible 2004 Final National Exit Poll "Voted 2000" weightings, has been on life support for four years.
Until now. This analysis will show that the 2008 Final NEP, which is also bogus with implausible weights, just gave the "false recall" canard the last rites.
Several prominent exit poll naysayers have consistently claimed that the impossible 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix in the Final 2004 National Exit Poll was due to returning Gore voters who misspoke to the exit pollsters about their vote in 2000. The rationale was that Gore voters told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush because they wanted to be associated with an incumbent war-time president (even though Gore won the popular vote and Bush had a 48% approval rating).
The implausible 46/37 returning Bush/Kerry voter mix in the Final 2008 NEP should finally put that canard to rest; that is, unless they want to make the same argument: that returning Kerry voters also lied about their 2004 vote because they wanted to be associated with Bush and his 22% approval rating.
On the Other Hand, all the other faith-based, mind-bogging, insults to our intelligence which tried to debunk the preliminary 2004 National Exit Poll and unadjusted "raw" state exit polls died a long time ago. What excuse will the naysayers think up this time to explain away the 2004 and 2008 Final NEP fictional weightings conjured up to force a match to corrupted vote counts?
In 2008, if you still believe the 2004 recorded vote, there was a nearly impossible 99.2% turnout (58.5m) of 59m living Bush 2004 voters (62 million recorded less 3 million who died). Yet the pundits claim that turnout was flat because Bush voters stayed home. Go figure.
Since the True Bush vote was actually close to 57m (see the 2004 Election Calculator model), only about 54m were still alive in 2008. Therefore, the 4.5m (58.5-54) returning Bush voters had to be the phantoms who mysteriously voted for him in 2004.
Forcing the Final National Exit Poll to match the miscounted recorded vote is an ongoing media scam. The exit poll consortium (NY Times, Washington Post, CNN, etc), pollsters and the media pundits should finally come clean. Their see-no-evil, hear-no-evil, head-in-the-sand "match the Final Exit Poll to the recorded vote" policy has been misleading at best and treasonous at worst.
The only difference between 2004 and 2008 is that the election was stolen in 2004 and in 2008, the Landslide was denied, just like it was in 2006.
Yes, Virginia. Kerry won in 2004. And the 67 million who voted for him all lost when he conceded without doing the math.
Exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky reported in Jan. 2005 that the average WPE (error in precinct margin) was 6.5% and that the exit poll discrepancy exceeded the MoE in 29 states in favor of Bush. It would be a sick joke if it were not so sad. Does anyone have any idea as to the odds of this occurrence?
Let's calculate the odds once again:
The probability that the exit poll discrepancy would exceed the MoE for a given candidate in a state is 2.5%. The probability that the discrepancy would exceed the MoE in N states is calculated using the Excel binomial distribution function:
Probability = 1-BINOMDIST(N-1,50,0.025,TRUE)
The function returns a ONE IN 257 TRILLION probability that that the exit poll discrepancy would exceed the MoE in at least N=17 states. Excel can't compute the probability for 18 or more states.
But we can approximate the probability for 29 states: ONE IN SEXTILLION. That's close to the probability that at least 86 of 88 touch screens would switch votes from Kerry to Bush - which is exactly what happened according to the 2004 Election Incident Reporting System (EIRS).
Here are some BIG numbers:
One Million is 10^6 = 1,000,000
One Billion is 10^9 = 1,000,000,000
One Trillion is 10^12 = 1,000,000,000,000
One Sextillion is 10^21 = 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
One Nonillion is 10^30 = 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
The table gives the probability of the exit poll discrepancy exceeding the MoE in N states, where N=1,17. The first column is the probability in scientific notation, the second is the probability expressed as 1/x. The third column is the probability expressed as a percentage for N=1,6.
>N SciProb 1 in PctProb
1 7.18E-01 1.4 71.8%
2 3.56E-01 2.8 35.6%
3 1.29E-01 7.7 12.9%
4 3.62E-02 28 3.6%
5 8.13E-03 123 0.8%
6 1.51E-03 662 0.15%
7 2.37E-04 4,214
8 3.21E-05 31,188
9 3.78E-06 264,775
10 3.92E-07 2,551,003
11 3.62E-08 27,650,776
12 2.99E-09 334,778,890
13 2.22E-10 4,500,703,425
14 1.50E-11 66,847,251,840
15 9.17E-13 1,090,988,281,824
16 5.24E-14 19,083,049,268,519
17 3.89E-15 257,348,550,135,457
...
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Final2008NEPScenarios.htm
The Gore voter "false recall" fallacy, designed to explain the impossible 2004 Final National Exit Poll "Voted 2000" weightings, has been on life support for four years.
Until now. This analysis will show that the 2008 Final NEP, which is also bogus with implausible weights, just gave the "false recall" canard the last rites.
Several prominent exit poll naysayers have consistently claimed that the impossible 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix in the Final 2004 National Exit Poll was due to returning Gore voters who misspoke to the exit pollsters about their vote in 2000. The rationale was that Gore voters told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush because they wanted to be associated with an incumbent war-time president (even though Gore won the popular vote and Bush had a 48% approval rating).
The implausible 46/37 returning Bush/Kerry voter mix in the Final 2008 NEP should finally put that canard to rest; that is, unless they want to make the same argument: that returning Kerry voters also lied about their 2004 vote because they wanted to be associated with Bush and his 22% approval rating.
On the Other Hand, all the other faith-based, mind-bogging, insults to our intelligence which tried to debunk the preliminary 2004 National Exit Poll and unadjusted "raw" state exit polls died a long time ago. What excuse will the naysayers think up this time to explain away the 2004 and 2008 Final NEP fictional weightings conjured up to force a match to corrupted vote counts?
In 2008, if you still believe the 2004 recorded vote, there was a nearly impossible 99.2% turnout (58.5m) of 59m living Bush 2004 voters (62 million recorded less 3 million who died). Yet the pundits claim that turnout was flat because Bush voters stayed home. Go figure.
Since the True Bush vote was actually close to 57m (see the 2004 Election Calculator model), only about 54m were still alive in 2008. Therefore, the 4.5m (58.5-54) returning Bush voters had to be the phantoms who mysteriously voted for him in 2004.
Forcing the Final National Exit Poll to match the miscounted recorded vote is an ongoing media scam. The exit poll consortium (NY Times, Washington Post, CNN, etc), pollsters and the media pundits should finally come clean. Their see-no-evil, hear-no-evil, head-in-the-sand "match the Final Exit Poll to the recorded vote" policy has been misleading at best and treasonous at worst.
The only difference between 2004 and 2008 is that the election was stolen in 2004 and in 2008, the Landslide was denied, just like it was in 2006.
Yes, Virginia. Kerry won in 2004. And the 67 million who voted for him all lost when he conceded without doing the math.
Exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky reported in Jan. 2005 that the average WPE (error in precinct margin) was 6.5% and that the exit poll discrepancy exceeded the MoE in 29 states in favor of Bush. It would be a sick joke if it were not so sad. Does anyone have any idea as to the odds of this occurrence?
Let's calculate the odds once again:
The probability that the exit poll discrepancy would exceed the MoE for a given candidate in a state is 2.5%. The probability that the discrepancy would exceed the MoE in N states is calculated using the Excel binomial distribution function:
Probability = 1-BINOMDIST(N-1,50,0.025,TRUE)
The function returns a ONE IN 257 TRILLION probability that that the exit poll discrepancy would exceed the MoE in at least N=17 states. Excel can't compute the probability for 18 or more states.
But we can approximate the probability for 29 states: ONE IN SEXTILLION. That's close to the probability that at least 86 of 88 touch screens would switch votes from Kerry to Bush - which is exactly what happened according to the 2004 Election Incident Reporting System (EIRS).
Here are some BIG numbers:
One Million is 10^6 = 1,000,000
One Billion is 10^9 = 1,000,000,000
One Trillion is 10^12 = 1,000,000,000,000
One Sextillion is 10^21 = 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
One Nonillion is 10^30 = 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
The table gives the probability of the exit poll discrepancy exceeding the MoE in N states, where N=1,17. The first column is the probability in scientific notation, the second is the probability expressed as 1/x. The third column is the probability expressed as a percentage for N=1,6.
>N SciProb 1 in PctProb
1 7.18E-01 1.4 71.8%
2 3.56E-01 2.8 35.6%
3 1.29E-01 7.7 12.9%
4 3.62E-02 28 3.6%
5 8.13E-03 123 0.8%
6 1.51E-03 662 0.15%
7 2.37E-04 4,214
8 3.21E-05 31,188
9 3.78E-06 264,775
10 3.92E-07 2,551,003
11 3.62E-08 27,650,776
12 2.99E-09 334,778,890
13 2.22E-10 4,500,703,425
14 1.50E-11 66,847,251,840
15 9.17E-13 1,090,988,281,824
16 5.24E-14 19,083,049,268,519
17 3.89E-15 257,348,550,135,457
...