TruthIsAll
04-04-2008, 10:15 AM
Why Obama Should Win in PA
April 22, 2008
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/FatLadyClearing.htm
It’s PA primary day. Obama is leading the RCP national poll average, 50-40. He’s taken back the lead in the Gallup (50-40) and Rasmussen (49-41) tracking polls. Last month, at the height of the Wright flap, Clinton led in PA by 53-36. She now leads the PA 5-poll moving average by 49.0-43.4.
Assuming that 75% of the undecided voters break for Obama, Clinton’s lead in the adjusted PA 5-poll average is a razor-thin 50.9-49.1. But this is a conservative estimate. Over 300,000 newly registered democrats have not been polled and at least 60% say they will vote for Obama. In addition, cell-phone users (mostly young Obama supporters) have also not been polled. Obama could very well carry PA - but only if the votes are fairly counted. View the full set of national and PA polls at Real Clear Politics.
Clinton has been in the public arena since 1992. Obama became a national figure in 2004 when he gave the Democratic convention keynote speech a few months before being elected to the Senate. For this reason, Clinton can be considered as the pseudo-incumbent. Historically, challengers have won 75% or more of the undecided vote, especially when the incumbent was unpopular. Clinton’s negatives are much higher than Obama’s. In the final 2004 Gallup poll, 90% of undecided voters were allocated to Kerry. Zogby and Harris estimated that 67-80% would break for Kerry.
The Excel Delegate Calculator projects final pledged and super delegates. Obama currently leads Clinton by 1415-1253 in pledged delegates. For Clinton to catch Obama, she needs 64% of the vote in the remaining primaries. The super delegate trend is clearly in Obama’s favor. On Feb. 20, Clinton led Obama by 81 super delegates (246-165). She now leads by just 27 (259-232). If Obama wins 50% of the remaining pledged delegates, he will need just 92 (30%) of the 303 uncommitted super delegates to clinch the nomination.
The Obama speech defused the Wright controversy. Hillary decided to promote the fiction of ducking Bosnia sniper fire – which backfired when photos proved it was all a sham. Then Senator Casey came out for Obama. So did the well-respected Bill Richardson, who was promptly called a “Judas” by James Carville, a Clinton DLC hack. Finally, Clinton’s campaign advisor Mark Penn was found lobbying in Columbia for free trade, contra to Clinton’s stated position. But who still believes her? After all, Bill Clinton has also lobbied (very lucratively) for free trade with Columbia. When Hillary was asked about this, she had no rational response – just her trademark cackle. It has not been a good month for Clinton.
Obama has a chance of winning the PA primary based on the following:
1) his steady increase in national and PA polling,
2) the majority of the 10-12% undecided voters should break for Obama,
3) the large increase in Democratic urban voter registration is not reflected in the polls,
4) Casey (D-PA) and Rooney (Steelers president) endorsements,
5) his big edge in advertising cash,
6) Teamsters and other union endorsements
There are some who criticize Zogby’s polling record. They assume that the recorded vote is the true vote - which implies zero fraud. But we know that elections are stolen. Zogby was correct in 2004; his final polling indicated that Kerry would win 311 electoral votes and the popular vote by 51-48. How was he to know that 3 million ballots would go uncounted or that 4 million votes would be switched electronically from Kerry to Bush? How was he to know about the shenanigans in Ohio, Florida and the other battleground states, along with the Bush vote padding in strong Kerry states such as NY, CA, IL?
Pollsters who predicted Bush would win are lauded. But they matched to a fraudulent recorded vote. The pre-election polls which indicated that Kerry would win were correct and confirmed by the unadjusted state and national exit polls: Kerry was a 52-47 winner and won by 8 million votes.
As for the 2008 primaries, consider these facts: 1) the New Hampshire fiasco: every pre-election poll had Obama winning by an average of 8 points. The early NH exit poll confirmed that he won – before the final exit poll was matched to the recorded vote; 2) 90,000 LA ballots were never counted, disenfranchising independent voters; 3) Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” convinced Republicans to cross over and vote for Hillary in Texas, Ohio and Mississippi; 4) there were ZERO votes recorded for Obama in New York City Harlem districts.
The media won't talk about these footprints of primary election fraud.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008PrimariesLinks.htm
Pennsylvania
Polling data from RCP
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html
5-poll moving average
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/GallupTracking_30004_image001.png
Super Delegate Trend
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator_14412_image001.png
National Trend
Gallup Daily Tracking Poll
http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/042208DailyUpdateGraph1_ysiel5l.gif
Gallup Tracking Poll
Event 1-day 3-day MA
BO HRC BO HRC
3/8 49 44 49 44
47 46 48 45
45 45 47 45
52 47 48 46
53 40 50 44
Wright flap
3/14 42 51 49 46
49 44 48 45
44 46 45 47
39 51 44 47
43 50 42 49
Obama speech
3/19 47 43 43 48
45 48 45 47
52 44 48 45
44 46 47 46
45 45 47 45
SniperGate
3/25 52 47 47 46
47 40 48 44
51 39 50 42
51 49 50 43
Casey endorsement
54 38 52 42
3/30 48 42 51 43
45 55 49 45
54 41 49 46
48 42 49 46
45 49 49 44
PennGate
4/4 54 41 49 44
48 48 49 46
54 40 52 43
51 41 51 43
48 42 51 41
51 43 50 42
54 41 51 42
42 42 49 42
The Bitter Truth
CackleGate
4/12 54 40 50 41
4/13 54 38 50 40
4/14 45 42 51 40
4/15 51 46 50 42
4/16 51 38 49 42
ABCLapelGate
4/17 39 48 47 44
4/18 45 52 45 46
4/19 57 35 47 45
4/20 45 39 49 42
April 22, 2008
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/FatLadyClearing.htm
It’s PA primary day. Obama is leading the RCP national poll average, 50-40. He’s taken back the lead in the Gallup (50-40) and Rasmussen (49-41) tracking polls. Last month, at the height of the Wright flap, Clinton led in PA by 53-36. She now leads the PA 5-poll moving average by 49.0-43.4.
Assuming that 75% of the undecided voters break for Obama, Clinton’s lead in the adjusted PA 5-poll average is a razor-thin 50.9-49.1. But this is a conservative estimate. Over 300,000 newly registered democrats have not been polled and at least 60% say they will vote for Obama. In addition, cell-phone users (mostly young Obama supporters) have also not been polled. Obama could very well carry PA - but only if the votes are fairly counted. View the full set of national and PA polls at Real Clear Politics.
Clinton has been in the public arena since 1992. Obama became a national figure in 2004 when he gave the Democratic convention keynote speech a few months before being elected to the Senate. For this reason, Clinton can be considered as the pseudo-incumbent. Historically, challengers have won 75% or more of the undecided vote, especially when the incumbent was unpopular. Clinton’s negatives are much higher than Obama’s. In the final 2004 Gallup poll, 90% of undecided voters were allocated to Kerry. Zogby and Harris estimated that 67-80% would break for Kerry.
The Excel Delegate Calculator projects final pledged and super delegates. Obama currently leads Clinton by 1415-1253 in pledged delegates. For Clinton to catch Obama, she needs 64% of the vote in the remaining primaries. The super delegate trend is clearly in Obama’s favor. On Feb. 20, Clinton led Obama by 81 super delegates (246-165). She now leads by just 27 (259-232). If Obama wins 50% of the remaining pledged delegates, he will need just 92 (30%) of the 303 uncommitted super delegates to clinch the nomination.
The Obama speech defused the Wright controversy. Hillary decided to promote the fiction of ducking Bosnia sniper fire – which backfired when photos proved it was all a sham. Then Senator Casey came out for Obama. So did the well-respected Bill Richardson, who was promptly called a “Judas” by James Carville, a Clinton DLC hack. Finally, Clinton’s campaign advisor Mark Penn was found lobbying in Columbia for free trade, contra to Clinton’s stated position. But who still believes her? After all, Bill Clinton has also lobbied (very lucratively) for free trade with Columbia. When Hillary was asked about this, she had no rational response – just her trademark cackle. It has not been a good month for Clinton.
Obama has a chance of winning the PA primary based on the following:
1) his steady increase in national and PA polling,
2) the majority of the 10-12% undecided voters should break for Obama,
3) the large increase in Democratic urban voter registration is not reflected in the polls,
4) Casey (D-PA) and Rooney (Steelers president) endorsements,
5) his big edge in advertising cash,
6) Teamsters and other union endorsements
There are some who criticize Zogby’s polling record. They assume that the recorded vote is the true vote - which implies zero fraud. But we know that elections are stolen. Zogby was correct in 2004; his final polling indicated that Kerry would win 311 electoral votes and the popular vote by 51-48. How was he to know that 3 million ballots would go uncounted or that 4 million votes would be switched electronically from Kerry to Bush? How was he to know about the shenanigans in Ohio, Florida and the other battleground states, along with the Bush vote padding in strong Kerry states such as NY, CA, IL?
Pollsters who predicted Bush would win are lauded. But they matched to a fraudulent recorded vote. The pre-election polls which indicated that Kerry would win were correct and confirmed by the unadjusted state and national exit polls: Kerry was a 52-47 winner and won by 8 million votes.
As for the 2008 primaries, consider these facts: 1) the New Hampshire fiasco: every pre-election poll had Obama winning by an average of 8 points. The early NH exit poll confirmed that he won – before the final exit poll was matched to the recorded vote; 2) 90,000 LA ballots were never counted, disenfranchising independent voters; 3) Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” convinced Republicans to cross over and vote for Hillary in Texas, Ohio and Mississippi; 4) there were ZERO votes recorded for Obama in New York City Harlem districts.
The media won't talk about these footprints of primary election fraud.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008PrimariesLinks.htm
Pennsylvania
Polling data from RCP
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html
5-poll moving average
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/GallupTracking_30004_image001.png
Super Delegate Trend
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator_14412_image001.png
National Trend
Gallup Daily Tracking Poll
http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/042208DailyUpdateGraph1_ysiel5l.gif
Gallup Tracking Poll
Event 1-day 3-day MA
BO HRC BO HRC
3/8 49 44 49 44
47 46 48 45
45 45 47 45
52 47 48 46
53 40 50 44
Wright flap
3/14 42 51 49 46
49 44 48 45
44 46 45 47
39 51 44 47
43 50 42 49
Obama speech
3/19 47 43 43 48
45 48 45 47
52 44 48 45
44 46 47 46
45 45 47 45
SniperGate
3/25 52 47 47 46
47 40 48 44
51 39 50 42
51 49 50 43
Casey endorsement
54 38 52 42
3/30 48 42 51 43
45 55 49 45
54 41 49 46
48 42 49 46
45 49 49 44
PennGate
4/4 54 41 49 44
48 48 49 46
54 40 52 43
51 41 51 43
48 42 51 41
51 43 50 42
54 41 51 42
42 42 49 42
The Bitter Truth
CackleGate
4/12 54 40 50 41
4/13 54 38 50 40
4/14 45 42 51 40
4/15 51 46 50 42
4/16 51 38 49 42
ABCLapelGate
4/17 39 48 47 44
4/18 45 52 45 46
4/19 57 35 47 45
4/20 45 39 49 42