TruthIsAll
01-26-2009, 01:14 AM
Landslide Denied: Returning (LV), New (NEP) and Undecided (UVA) voter shares
It comes down to three key drivers of Obama's share:
Undecided voters, returning 2004 voters and new voters
(see Sensitivity Analysis Tables 1-3)
The 2008 National Exit Poll indicates that MORE Bush 2004 voters turned out than were still living.
DO YOU BELIEVE IT?
McCain was the de-facto incumbent running for Bush's third term.
But Bush had a 22% approval rating.
Therefore, Obama was poised to win a majority of undecided voters (UVA).
The base case UVA assumption is that he had 75%.
But what if his share was 60% or 80%?
The best estimate is that 95% of 2004 voters still living returned to vote in 2008.
But what if turnout was 93% or 98%?
Obama's final share of returning likely voters (LV) was 54% assuming 75% of undecided votes are allocated to his 51% average share.
But what if his share was 53% or 55%?
The vast majority of newly registered voters were Democrats.
According to the National Exit Poll, Obama won 71% of New voters.
But what if his share was 69% or 73%?
Sensitivity Analysis
Base case scenario: 95% Turnout
Obama had a 56.7% share assuming a 75% UVA, 71% of 20.8m new voters (NEP), 51.0% of 110.6m returning voters (LV pre-election).
Sensitivity analysis
(over a range of assumptions and vote shares)
1- UVA, 2004 voter turnout: (50%,93%) to (80%, 98%)
Obama: 55.4-57.2%
2- UVA, LV share: (50%,50%) to (80%, 55%)
Obama: 55.4-57.5%
3- New Voter, LV share: (61%,50%) to (73%, 55%)
Obama: 54.9-57.8%
RV and LV polls showed a late trend to Obama.
(Base case 75% UVA to Obama, see Sensitivity Analysis Tables below)
Final 10 Registered Voter (RV) polls from 10/04: Obama 56.45%.
Final 9 Likely Voter (LV) polls from 11/01: Obama 53.96%.
Final 3 RV polls from 11/01: Obama 56.96%.
(8288 total sample, 1.1% MoE)
Obama's 57% True Vote is confirmed by three different models.
1. Combined Final Pre-election LV Polls and NEP New Voter Share:56.69%
2. Final Pre-election RV Polls: 56.96% (75% UVA).
3. Election Calculator: 57.54%
Plausible returning 2004 voter mix and NEP vote shares.
Voted
2004 122.3 recorded
Died 5.87 (4.8%)
Alive 116.43
Voted 110.61 (95%)
2008 131.37 recorded
Voted 110.61
New 20.76
UVA
Obama McCain Margin Obama McCain
9 LV Polls Date Sample 51.00 43.56 7.44 53.96 44.54
Zogby 11/01 - 11/03 1201 54 43 11 55.13 43.37
Marist 11/03 - 11/03 804 52 43 9 54.63 43.87
FOX 11/02 - 11/03 971 50 43 7 54.13 44.37
Res2k 10/31 - 11/02 1100 51 44 7 53.63 44.87
Hotline 10/31 - 11/02 882 50 45 5 52.63 45.87
Rasmus 10/31 - 11/02 3000 51 46 5 52.13 46.37
NBC/WSJ 11/01 - 11/02 1011 51 43 8 54.38 44.12
CNN 10/30 - 11/01 1017 51 43 8 54.38 44.12
Pew 10/30 - 11/01 2587 49 42 7 54.63 43.87
Final 10 RV Polls
UVA
Poll Poll Sample Obama McCain Spread Obama McCain Spread
RV Date Average 50.30 40.00 10.30 56.45 42.05 14.40
Gallup 10/31 - 11/02 2847 53 40 13 57.13 41.37 15.75
ABC/WP 10/31 - 11/02 2446 54 41 13 56.63 41.87 14.75
Pew 10/29 - 11/01 2995 50 39 11 57.13 41.37 15.75
Pew 10/23 - 10/26 1325 52 36 16 59.87 38.63 21.25
NBC/WSJ 10/18 - 10/20 1159 52 42 10 55.37 43.13 12.25
Ipsos 10/09 - 10/13 1036 48 39 9 56.63 41.87 14.75
Newswk 10/08 - 10/09 1035 52 41 11 56.13 42.37 13.75
FOX 10/08 - 10/09 900 46 39 7 56.13 42.37 13.75
Ipsos 10/02 - 10/06 858 47 40 7 55.63 42.87 12.75
NBC/WSJ 10/04 - 10/05 658 49 43 6 53.87 44.63 9.25
Final 3 RV MoE 1.1% 8288 52.33 40.00 12.33 56.96 41.55 15.41
Combined NEW and Returning Voters
Votes (mil)
2004 Mix Voted Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.80% 20.76 71.0% 27.0% 2.0% 14.74 5.61 0.42
Return 84.20% 110.61 54.0% 44.5% 1.5% 59.73 49.22 1.66
Total 100.0% 131.37 56.69% 41.73% 1.58% 74.47 54.83 2.07
Margin 19.64
______________________________________________________________________
Sensitivity Analysis
Table 1: 2004 voter turnout and Obama share of undecided (UVA)
Given:
51% Obama LV Share
71% Obama New Voter Share
Obama Returning Voter (LV) Turnout
UVA 98.0% 97.0% 96.0% 95.0% 94.0% 93.0%
Obama Vote Share
80% 56.4% 56.6% 56.7% 56.9% 57.0% 57.2%
75% 56.2% 56.4% 56.5% 56.69% 56.8% 57.0%
70% 56.1% 56.2% 56.4% 56.5% 56.7% 56.8%
65% 55.9% 56.0% 56.2% 56.3% 56.5% 56.7%
60% 55.7% 55.9% 56.0% 56.2% 56.3% 56.5%
55% 55.5% 55.7% 55.9% 56.0% 56.2% 56.3%
50% 55.4% 55.5% 55.7% 55.8% 56.0% 56.2%
Table 2: Obama share of undecided and returning voters
Given:
95% Turnout of 2004 voters
Obama: 71% NEP New Voter share
Obama Share of Returning (LV) Voters
UVA 50.0% 51.0% 52.0% 53.0% 54.0% 55.0%
Obama Vote Share
80% 56.7% 56.9% 57.0% 57.2% 57.4% 57.5%
75% 56.5% 56.69% 56.9% 57.1% 57.3% 57.5%
70% 56.3% 56.5% 56.8% 57.0% 57.3% 57.5%
65% 56.1% 56.3% 56.6% 56.9% 57.2% 57.5%
60% 55.8% 56.2% 56.5% 56.9% 57.2% 57.5%
55% 55.6% 56.0% 56.4% 56.8% 57.1% 57.5%
50% 55.4% 55.8% 56.3% 56.7% 57.1% 57.5%
Table 3: Obama share of new and returning voters
Given:
95% Turnout of 2004 voters
Obama: 75% UVA
Obama
Share Share of Returning (LV) Voters
New 50.0% 51.0% 52.0% 53.0% 54.0% 55.0%
Obama Vote Share
73% 56.8% 57.0% 57.2% 57.4% 57.6% 57.8%
71% 56.5% 56.69% 56.9% 57.1% 57.3% 57.5%
69% 56.2% 56.4% 56.6% 56.8% 57.0% 57.2%
67% 55.8% 56.1% 56.3% 56.5% 56.7% 56.9%
65% 55.5% 55.7% 55.9% 56.2% 56.4% 56.6%
63% 55.2% 55.4% 55.6% 55.8% 56.1% 56.3%
61% 54.9% 55.1% 55.3% 55.5% 55.7% 55.9%
_____________________________________________________________________________
2008 National Exit Poll
(forced to match the 2008 recorded vote, but the returning voter mix is impossible)
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 13.00% 17.1 71% 27% 2% 12.13 4.60 0.34
Kerry 37.17% 48.8 89% 9% 2% 43.51 4.35 0.98
Bush 45.83% 60.2 17% 82% 1% 10.34 49.27 0.60
Other 4.00% 5.3 66% 24% 10% 3.48 1.25 0.53
Total 100.0% 131.37 52.87% 45.28% 1.86% 69.46m 59.48m 2.45m
Election Calculator: Scenario 1
(returning voter mix based on the recorded 2004 vote (Bush 50.73-Kerry 48.27%)
adjusted for 4.8% voter mortality and 95% turnout)
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.80% 20.8 71% 27% 2% 14.83 5.51 0.42
Kerry 40.64% 53.4 89% 9% 2% 47.52 4.80 1.07
Bush 42.71% 56.1 17% 82% 1% 9.54 46.01 0.56
Other 0.85% 1.1 66% 24% 10% 0.74 0.26 0.11
Total 100.0% 131.37 55.28% 43.08% 1.64% 72.62m 56.59m 2.16
Election Calculator: Scenario 2
(returning voter mix based on the 2004 exit poll (Kerry 52-Bush 47%)
adjusted for 4.8% voter mortality and 95% turnout)
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.80% 20.8 71% 27% 2% 14.83 5.51 0.42
Kerry 43.78% 57.5 89% 9% 2% 51.19 5.18 1.15
Bush 39.57% 52.0 17% 82% 1% 8.84 42.63 0.52
Other 0.85% 1.1 66% 24% 10% 0.74 0.26 0.11
Total 100.0% 131.37 57.54% 40.78% 1.67% 75.59 53.58 2.20
________________________________________________________________________
It comes down to three key drivers of Obama's share:
Undecided voters, returning 2004 voters and new voters
(see Sensitivity Analysis Tables 1-3)
The 2008 National Exit Poll indicates that MORE Bush 2004 voters turned out than were still living.
DO YOU BELIEVE IT?
McCain was the de-facto incumbent running for Bush's third term.
But Bush had a 22% approval rating.
Therefore, Obama was poised to win a majority of undecided voters (UVA).
The base case UVA assumption is that he had 75%.
But what if his share was 60% or 80%?
The best estimate is that 95% of 2004 voters still living returned to vote in 2008.
But what if turnout was 93% or 98%?
Obama's final share of returning likely voters (LV) was 54% assuming 75% of undecided votes are allocated to his 51% average share.
But what if his share was 53% or 55%?
The vast majority of newly registered voters were Democrats.
According to the National Exit Poll, Obama won 71% of New voters.
But what if his share was 69% or 73%?
Sensitivity Analysis
Base case scenario: 95% Turnout
Obama had a 56.7% share assuming a 75% UVA, 71% of 20.8m new voters (NEP), 51.0% of 110.6m returning voters (LV pre-election).
Sensitivity analysis
(over a range of assumptions and vote shares)
1- UVA, 2004 voter turnout: (50%,93%) to (80%, 98%)
Obama: 55.4-57.2%
2- UVA, LV share: (50%,50%) to (80%, 55%)
Obama: 55.4-57.5%
3- New Voter, LV share: (61%,50%) to (73%, 55%)
Obama: 54.9-57.8%
RV and LV polls showed a late trend to Obama.
(Base case 75% UVA to Obama, see Sensitivity Analysis Tables below)
Final 10 Registered Voter (RV) polls from 10/04: Obama 56.45%.
Final 9 Likely Voter (LV) polls from 11/01: Obama 53.96%.
Final 3 RV polls from 11/01: Obama 56.96%.
(8288 total sample, 1.1% MoE)
Obama's 57% True Vote is confirmed by three different models.
1. Combined Final Pre-election LV Polls and NEP New Voter Share:56.69%
2. Final Pre-election RV Polls: 56.96% (75% UVA).
3. Election Calculator: 57.54%
Plausible returning 2004 voter mix and NEP vote shares.
Voted
2004 122.3 recorded
Died 5.87 (4.8%)
Alive 116.43
Voted 110.61 (95%)
2008 131.37 recorded
Voted 110.61
New 20.76
UVA
Obama McCain Margin Obama McCain
9 LV Polls Date Sample 51.00 43.56 7.44 53.96 44.54
Zogby 11/01 - 11/03 1201 54 43 11 55.13 43.37
Marist 11/03 - 11/03 804 52 43 9 54.63 43.87
FOX 11/02 - 11/03 971 50 43 7 54.13 44.37
Res2k 10/31 - 11/02 1100 51 44 7 53.63 44.87
Hotline 10/31 - 11/02 882 50 45 5 52.63 45.87
Rasmus 10/31 - 11/02 3000 51 46 5 52.13 46.37
NBC/WSJ 11/01 - 11/02 1011 51 43 8 54.38 44.12
CNN 10/30 - 11/01 1017 51 43 8 54.38 44.12
Pew 10/30 - 11/01 2587 49 42 7 54.63 43.87
Final 10 RV Polls
UVA
Poll Poll Sample Obama McCain Spread Obama McCain Spread
RV Date Average 50.30 40.00 10.30 56.45 42.05 14.40
Gallup 10/31 - 11/02 2847 53 40 13 57.13 41.37 15.75
ABC/WP 10/31 - 11/02 2446 54 41 13 56.63 41.87 14.75
Pew 10/29 - 11/01 2995 50 39 11 57.13 41.37 15.75
Pew 10/23 - 10/26 1325 52 36 16 59.87 38.63 21.25
NBC/WSJ 10/18 - 10/20 1159 52 42 10 55.37 43.13 12.25
Ipsos 10/09 - 10/13 1036 48 39 9 56.63 41.87 14.75
Newswk 10/08 - 10/09 1035 52 41 11 56.13 42.37 13.75
FOX 10/08 - 10/09 900 46 39 7 56.13 42.37 13.75
Ipsos 10/02 - 10/06 858 47 40 7 55.63 42.87 12.75
NBC/WSJ 10/04 - 10/05 658 49 43 6 53.87 44.63 9.25
Final 3 RV MoE 1.1% 8288 52.33 40.00 12.33 56.96 41.55 15.41
Combined NEW and Returning Voters
Votes (mil)
2004 Mix Voted Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.80% 20.76 71.0% 27.0% 2.0% 14.74 5.61 0.42
Return 84.20% 110.61 54.0% 44.5% 1.5% 59.73 49.22 1.66
Total 100.0% 131.37 56.69% 41.73% 1.58% 74.47 54.83 2.07
Margin 19.64
______________________________________________________________________
Sensitivity Analysis
Table 1: 2004 voter turnout and Obama share of undecided (UVA)
Given:
51% Obama LV Share
71% Obama New Voter Share
Obama Returning Voter (LV) Turnout
UVA 98.0% 97.0% 96.0% 95.0% 94.0% 93.0%
Obama Vote Share
80% 56.4% 56.6% 56.7% 56.9% 57.0% 57.2%
75% 56.2% 56.4% 56.5% 56.69% 56.8% 57.0%
70% 56.1% 56.2% 56.4% 56.5% 56.7% 56.8%
65% 55.9% 56.0% 56.2% 56.3% 56.5% 56.7%
60% 55.7% 55.9% 56.0% 56.2% 56.3% 56.5%
55% 55.5% 55.7% 55.9% 56.0% 56.2% 56.3%
50% 55.4% 55.5% 55.7% 55.8% 56.0% 56.2%
Table 2: Obama share of undecided and returning voters
Given:
95% Turnout of 2004 voters
Obama: 71% NEP New Voter share
Obama Share of Returning (LV) Voters
UVA 50.0% 51.0% 52.0% 53.0% 54.0% 55.0%
Obama Vote Share
80% 56.7% 56.9% 57.0% 57.2% 57.4% 57.5%
75% 56.5% 56.69% 56.9% 57.1% 57.3% 57.5%
70% 56.3% 56.5% 56.8% 57.0% 57.3% 57.5%
65% 56.1% 56.3% 56.6% 56.9% 57.2% 57.5%
60% 55.8% 56.2% 56.5% 56.9% 57.2% 57.5%
55% 55.6% 56.0% 56.4% 56.8% 57.1% 57.5%
50% 55.4% 55.8% 56.3% 56.7% 57.1% 57.5%
Table 3: Obama share of new and returning voters
Given:
95% Turnout of 2004 voters
Obama: 75% UVA
Obama
Share Share of Returning (LV) Voters
New 50.0% 51.0% 52.0% 53.0% 54.0% 55.0%
Obama Vote Share
73% 56.8% 57.0% 57.2% 57.4% 57.6% 57.8%
71% 56.5% 56.69% 56.9% 57.1% 57.3% 57.5%
69% 56.2% 56.4% 56.6% 56.8% 57.0% 57.2%
67% 55.8% 56.1% 56.3% 56.5% 56.7% 56.9%
65% 55.5% 55.7% 55.9% 56.2% 56.4% 56.6%
63% 55.2% 55.4% 55.6% 55.8% 56.1% 56.3%
61% 54.9% 55.1% 55.3% 55.5% 55.7% 55.9%
_____________________________________________________________________________
2008 National Exit Poll
(forced to match the 2008 recorded vote, but the returning voter mix is impossible)
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 13.00% 17.1 71% 27% 2% 12.13 4.60 0.34
Kerry 37.17% 48.8 89% 9% 2% 43.51 4.35 0.98
Bush 45.83% 60.2 17% 82% 1% 10.34 49.27 0.60
Other 4.00% 5.3 66% 24% 10% 3.48 1.25 0.53
Total 100.0% 131.37 52.87% 45.28% 1.86% 69.46m 59.48m 2.45m
Election Calculator: Scenario 1
(returning voter mix based on the recorded 2004 vote (Bush 50.73-Kerry 48.27%)
adjusted for 4.8% voter mortality and 95% turnout)
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.80% 20.8 71% 27% 2% 14.83 5.51 0.42
Kerry 40.64% 53.4 89% 9% 2% 47.52 4.80 1.07
Bush 42.71% 56.1 17% 82% 1% 9.54 46.01 0.56
Other 0.85% 1.1 66% 24% 10% 0.74 0.26 0.11
Total 100.0% 131.37 55.28% 43.08% 1.64% 72.62m 56.59m 2.16
Election Calculator: Scenario 2
(returning voter mix based on the 2004 exit poll (Kerry 52-Bush 47%)
adjusted for 4.8% voter mortality and 95% turnout)
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.80% 20.8 71% 27% 2% 14.83 5.51 0.42
Kerry 43.78% 57.5 89% 9% 2% 51.19 5.18 1.15
Bush 39.57% 52.0 17% 82% 1% 8.84 42.63 0.52
Other 0.85% 1.1 66% 24% 10% 0.74 0.26 0.11
Total 100.0% 131.37 57.54% 40.78% 1.67% 75.59 53.58 2.20
________________________________________________________________________