TruthIsAll
05-27-2009, 05:33 AM
Calculating the True Vote is a sequential, recursive and dynamic process.
The turnout of previous election voters sequentially binds the current election to the previous one; it's a recursive function. The change in voter preference of returning voters and the energizing of newly registered voters and others who did not vote in the previous election is a dynamic unique to the election.
True Vote(i,j) = Returning Voter Mix(k,j-1)* Shares of Returning Voters(i,k)+ New Voters(j)* Shares of New Voters(i,j)
where
i = current candidate code (i=1,3)
k = returning voter code(k=1,3)
j = election code (j=1,11)
[code]
1972 95% 92% Returning
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter True Vote shares required to match recorded vote
1968 1968 1968 1972 1972 Turnout Mix McGovern Nixon Other
DNV True - - - - 16.75 11.2% 43% 53% 4%
Humphrey 45.3% 35.77 31.27 33.98 31.27 31.27 40.2% 71% 28% 1%
Nixon 42.2% 33.28 31.78 31.62 29.09 29.09 37.4% 6% 89% 5%
Wallace 12.5% 9.91 10.14 9.41 8.66 8.66 11.1% 40% 59% 1%
Total 78.96 73.20 75.02 69.01 85.77 Total 40.08% 57.08% 2.83%
34.38 48.96 2.43
Recorded 36.24% 60.67% 3.09%
77.74 28.17 47.17 2.40
1976 95% 94% Returning
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter True Vote shares required to match recorded vote
1972 1972 1972 1976 1976 Turnout Mix Carter Ford Other
DNV True - - - - 10.11 6.1% 57% 40% 3%
McGovern40.1% 34.38 28.17 32.66 30.70 30.70 37.7% 92% 7% 1%
Nixon 57.1% 48.96 47.17 46.51 43.72 43.72 53.6% 24% 74% 2%
Other 2.8% 2.43 2.40 2.31 2.17 2.17 2.7% 58% 39% 3%
Total 85.77 77.74 81.48 76.59 86.70 Total 52.51% 45.78% 1.71%
45.52 39.69 1.48
Recorded 50.08% 48.02% 1.90%
81.53 40.83 39.15 1.55
1980 95% 94% Returning
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter True Vote shares required to match recorded vote
1976 1976 1976 1980 1980 Turnout Mix Carter Reagan Anderson
DNV True - - - - 15.64 10.6% 36% 47% 17%
Carter 52.5% 45.52 40.83 43.25 40.65 40.65 47.0% 70% 20% 10%
Ford 45.8% 39.69 39.15 37.71 35.44 35.44 40.9% 13% 84% 3%
Other 1.7% 1.48 1.55 1.41 1.32 1.32 1.5% 50% 36% 14%
Total 86.70 81.53 82.36 77.42 93.07 Total 42.76% 49.30% 7.94%
39.80 45.88 7.39
Recorded 40.99% 50.71% 8.30%
86.58 35.48 43.90 7.19
1984 95% 95% Returning
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter True Vote shares required to match recorded vote
1980 1980 1980 1984 1984 Turnout Mix Mondale Reagan Other
DNV True - - - - 17.89 9.3% 38% 58% 4%
Carter 42.8% 39.80 35.48 37.81 35.92 35.92 38.8% 85% 15% 0%
Reagan 49.3% 45.88 43.90 43.59 41.41 41.41 44.7% 6% 94% 0%
Anderson 7.9% 7.39 7.19 7.02 6.67 6.67 7.2% 49% 50% 1%
Total 93.07 86.58 88.41 83.99 101.88 Total 42.71% 56.84% 0.45%
43.51 57.91 0.45
Recorded 40.56% 58.77% 0.67%
92.65 37.58 54.46 0.62
1988 95% 94% Returning
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter True Vote shares required to match recorded vote
1984 1984 1984 1988 1988 Turnout Mix Dukakis Bush Other
DNV True - - - - 11.25 0.7% 47% 51% 2%
Mondale 42.7% 43.51 37.58 41.34 38.86 38.86 42.4% 92% 7% 1%
Reagan 56.8% 57.91 54.46 55.02 51.72 51.72 56.5% 19% 80% 1%
Other 0.4% 0.45 0.62 0.43 0.41 0.41 0.4% 50% 49% 1%
Total 101.88 92.65 96.78 90.98 102.22 Total 50.29% 48.70% 1.01%
51.41 49.78 1.03
Recorded 45.65% 53.37% 0.98%
91.60 41.81 48.89 0.90
1992 95% 98% Returning
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter True Vote shares required to match recorded vote
1988 1988 1988 1992 1992 Turnout Mix Clinton Bush Perot
DNV True - - - - 18.70 8.9% 46% 25% 29%
Dukakis 50.3% 51.41 41.81 48.84 47.86 47.86 45.8% 83% 5% 12%
Bush 48.7% 49.78 48.89 47.29 46.35 46.35 44.4% 21% 59% 20%
Other 1.0% 1.03 0.90 0.98 0.96 0.96 0.9% 40% 40% 20%
Total 102.22 91.60 97.11 95.17 113.87 Total 51.81% 31.06% 17.13%
58.99 35.37 19.51
Recorded 43.01% 37.45% 19.54%
104.42 44.91 39.11 20.41
1996 95% 88% Returning
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter True Vote shares required to match recorded vote
1992 1992 1992 1996 1996 Turnout Mix Clinton Dole Perot
DNV True - - - - 9.83 1.1% 55% 33% 12%
Clinton 51.8% 58.99 44.91 56.04 49.32 49.32 51.2% 85% 9% 6%
Bush 31.1% 35.37 39.11 33.60 29.57 29.57 30.7% 13% 82% 5%
Perot 17.1% 19.51 20.41 18.53 16.31 16.31 16.9% 32% 42% 26%
Total 113.87 104.42 108.17 95.19 105.02 Total 53.57% 37.28% 9.15%
56.26 39.15 9.61
Recorded 49.23% 40.71% 10.05%
96.28 47.40 39.20 9.68
2000 95% 97% Returning
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter True Vote shares required to match recorded vote
1996 1996 1996 2000 2000 Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other
DNV True - - - - 14.05 8.2% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 53.6% 56.26 47.40 53.45 51.84 51.84 49.2% 82% 15% 3%
Dole 37.3% 39.15 39.20 37.19 36.08 36.08 34.2% 7% 91% 2%
Perot 9.1% 9.61 9.68 9.13 8.85 8.85 8.4% 44% 44% 12%
Total 105.02 96.28 99.77 96.77 110.83 Total 50.68% 45.74% 3.58%
56.17 50.69 3.96
Recorded 48.38% 47.86% 3.76%
105.42 51.00 50.46 3.96
2004 95% 98% Returning
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter True 12:22am NEP Vote Shares
2000 2000 2000 2004 2004 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV True - - - - 22.56 15.6% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 50.7% 56.17 51.00 53.36 52.29 52.29 42.8% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 45.7% 50.69 50.46 48.16 47.19 47.19 38.6% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.6% 3.96 3.96 3.77 3.69 3.69 3.0% 64% 17% 19%
Total 110.83 105.42 105.28 103.18 125.74 Total 53.61% 45.07% 1.31%
67.41 56.68 1.65
Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23
2008 95% 97% Returning
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter True Vote shares required to match recorded vote
2004 2004 2004 2008 2008 Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV True - - - - 16.44 11.8% 73% 27% 0%
Kerry 53.6% 67.41 59.03 64.04 62.12 62.12 47.3% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 45.1% 56.68 62.04 53.84 52.23 52.23 39.8% 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.3% 1.65 1.23 1.57 1.52 1.52 1.2% 66% 26% 8%
Total 125.74 122.30 119.45 115.87 132.31 Total 58.22% 40.34% 1.44%
77.03 53.38 1.90
Recorded 52.87% 45.63% 1.50%
131.37 69.46 59.94 1.97
The turnout of previous election voters sequentially binds the current election to the previous one; it's a recursive function. The change in voter preference of returning voters and the energizing of newly registered voters and others who did not vote in the previous election is a dynamic unique to the election.
True Vote(i,j) = Returning Voter Mix(k,j-1)* Shares of Returning Voters(i,k)+ New Voters(j)* Shares of New Voters(i,j)
where
i = current candidate code (i=1,3)
k = returning voter code(k=1,3)
j = election code (j=1,11)
[code]
1972 95% 92% Returning
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter True Vote shares required to match recorded vote
1968 1968 1968 1972 1972 Turnout Mix McGovern Nixon Other
DNV True - - - - 16.75 11.2% 43% 53% 4%
Humphrey 45.3% 35.77 31.27 33.98 31.27 31.27 40.2% 71% 28% 1%
Nixon 42.2% 33.28 31.78 31.62 29.09 29.09 37.4% 6% 89% 5%
Wallace 12.5% 9.91 10.14 9.41 8.66 8.66 11.1% 40% 59% 1%
Total 78.96 73.20 75.02 69.01 85.77 Total 40.08% 57.08% 2.83%
34.38 48.96 2.43
Recorded 36.24% 60.67% 3.09%
77.74 28.17 47.17 2.40
1976 95% 94% Returning
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter True Vote shares required to match recorded vote
1972 1972 1972 1976 1976 Turnout Mix Carter Ford Other
DNV True - - - - 10.11 6.1% 57% 40% 3%
McGovern40.1% 34.38 28.17 32.66 30.70 30.70 37.7% 92% 7% 1%
Nixon 57.1% 48.96 47.17 46.51 43.72 43.72 53.6% 24% 74% 2%
Other 2.8% 2.43 2.40 2.31 2.17 2.17 2.7% 58% 39% 3%
Total 85.77 77.74 81.48 76.59 86.70 Total 52.51% 45.78% 1.71%
45.52 39.69 1.48
Recorded 50.08% 48.02% 1.90%
81.53 40.83 39.15 1.55
1980 95% 94% Returning
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter True Vote shares required to match recorded vote
1976 1976 1976 1980 1980 Turnout Mix Carter Reagan Anderson
DNV True - - - - 15.64 10.6% 36% 47% 17%
Carter 52.5% 45.52 40.83 43.25 40.65 40.65 47.0% 70% 20% 10%
Ford 45.8% 39.69 39.15 37.71 35.44 35.44 40.9% 13% 84% 3%
Other 1.7% 1.48 1.55 1.41 1.32 1.32 1.5% 50% 36% 14%
Total 86.70 81.53 82.36 77.42 93.07 Total 42.76% 49.30% 7.94%
39.80 45.88 7.39
Recorded 40.99% 50.71% 8.30%
86.58 35.48 43.90 7.19
1984 95% 95% Returning
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter True Vote shares required to match recorded vote
1980 1980 1980 1984 1984 Turnout Mix Mondale Reagan Other
DNV True - - - - 17.89 9.3% 38% 58% 4%
Carter 42.8% 39.80 35.48 37.81 35.92 35.92 38.8% 85% 15% 0%
Reagan 49.3% 45.88 43.90 43.59 41.41 41.41 44.7% 6% 94% 0%
Anderson 7.9% 7.39 7.19 7.02 6.67 6.67 7.2% 49% 50% 1%
Total 93.07 86.58 88.41 83.99 101.88 Total 42.71% 56.84% 0.45%
43.51 57.91 0.45
Recorded 40.56% 58.77% 0.67%
92.65 37.58 54.46 0.62
1988 95% 94% Returning
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter True Vote shares required to match recorded vote
1984 1984 1984 1988 1988 Turnout Mix Dukakis Bush Other
DNV True - - - - 11.25 0.7% 47% 51% 2%
Mondale 42.7% 43.51 37.58 41.34 38.86 38.86 42.4% 92% 7% 1%
Reagan 56.8% 57.91 54.46 55.02 51.72 51.72 56.5% 19% 80% 1%
Other 0.4% 0.45 0.62 0.43 0.41 0.41 0.4% 50% 49% 1%
Total 101.88 92.65 96.78 90.98 102.22 Total 50.29% 48.70% 1.01%
51.41 49.78 1.03
Recorded 45.65% 53.37% 0.98%
91.60 41.81 48.89 0.90
1992 95% 98% Returning
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter True Vote shares required to match recorded vote
1988 1988 1988 1992 1992 Turnout Mix Clinton Bush Perot
DNV True - - - - 18.70 8.9% 46% 25% 29%
Dukakis 50.3% 51.41 41.81 48.84 47.86 47.86 45.8% 83% 5% 12%
Bush 48.7% 49.78 48.89 47.29 46.35 46.35 44.4% 21% 59% 20%
Other 1.0% 1.03 0.90 0.98 0.96 0.96 0.9% 40% 40% 20%
Total 102.22 91.60 97.11 95.17 113.87 Total 51.81% 31.06% 17.13%
58.99 35.37 19.51
Recorded 43.01% 37.45% 19.54%
104.42 44.91 39.11 20.41
1996 95% 88% Returning
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter True Vote shares required to match recorded vote
1992 1992 1992 1996 1996 Turnout Mix Clinton Dole Perot
DNV True - - - - 9.83 1.1% 55% 33% 12%
Clinton 51.8% 58.99 44.91 56.04 49.32 49.32 51.2% 85% 9% 6%
Bush 31.1% 35.37 39.11 33.60 29.57 29.57 30.7% 13% 82% 5%
Perot 17.1% 19.51 20.41 18.53 16.31 16.31 16.9% 32% 42% 26%
Total 113.87 104.42 108.17 95.19 105.02 Total 53.57% 37.28% 9.15%
56.26 39.15 9.61
Recorded 49.23% 40.71% 10.05%
96.28 47.40 39.20 9.68
2000 95% 97% Returning
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter True Vote shares required to match recorded vote
1996 1996 1996 2000 2000 Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other
DNV True - - - - 14.05 8.2% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 53.6% 56.26 47.40 53.45 51.84 51.84 49.2% 82% 15% 3%
Dole 37.3% 39.15 39.20 37.19 36.08 36.08 34.2% 7% 91% 2%
Perot 9.1% 9.61 9.68 9.13 8.85 8.85 8.4% 44% 44% 12%
Total 105.02 96.28 99.77 96.77 110.83 Total 50.68% 45.74% 3.58%
56.17 50.69 3.96
Recorded 48.38% 47.86% 3.76%
105.42 51.00 50.46 3.96
2004 95% 98% Returning
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter True 12:22am NEP Vote Shares
2000 2000 2000 2004 2004 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV True - - - - 22.56 15.6% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 50.7% 56.17 51.00 53.36 52.29 52.29 42.8% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 45.7% 50.69 50.46 48.16 47.19 47.19 38.6% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.6% 3.96 3.96 3.77 3.69 3.69 3.0% 64% 17% 19%
Total 110.83 105.42 105.28 103.18 125.74 Total 53.61% 45.07% 1.31%
67.41 56.68 1.65
Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23
2008 95% 97% Returning
Cast Recorded Alive Voted Voter True Vote shares required to match recorded vote
2004 2004 2004 2008 2008 Turnout Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV True - - - - 16.44 11.8% 73% 27% 0%
Kerry 53.6% 67.41 59.03 64.04 62.12 62.12 47.3% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 45.1% 56.68 62.04 53.84 52.23 52.23 39.8% 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.3% 1.65 1.23 1.57 1.52 1.52 1.2% 66% 26% 8%
Total 125.74 122.30 119.45 115.87 132.31 Total 58.22% 40.34% 1.44%
77.03 53.38 1.90
Recorded 52.87% 45.63% 1.50%
131.37 69.46 59.94 1.97