TruthIsAll
01-19-2009, 03:21 PM
A comparison of the final 2004 and 2008 pre-election RV (registered voter) and LV (likely voter) polls confirms that in both elections the LV polls were matched a fraudulent vote count while the RV polls closely represented the True Vote. RV polls include newly registered voters (70% for Obama, 60% for Kerry) and LV polls do not.
In addition, RV and LV polls do not allocate undecided voters (UVA). These voters usually break by 70-90% for the challenger (Kerry and Obama). Add in the uncounted Democratic votes (75% of 3.4 million in 2004). That's why RV polls are superior to LV polls in approximating the True Vote. LV polls are better for matching to a miscounted vote.
The latest myth is that the final LV polls were exactly right - Obama won by 7%. Approximately 24% of total votes cast (16% new, 5% undecided and 3% uncounted) are strongly Democratic. These voters add 12% to the Democratic margin. The LV polls did not account for 30 million new, undecided and uncounted votes. That's why Obama doubled the his recorded 7% margin.
The Democrats won major landslides in the last two elections due to a) a massive new voter registration and GOTV effort, b) returning Democrats who were highly motivated to punish Bush for stealing both elections and c) former Republicans and Independents who finally came to the realization that voting for Bush was a big mistake- and they did not want McCain to continue the same failed policies.
Just because Gore won the "official" recorded vote by 540,000 in 2000 does not mean that he did not win the True Vote by over 3.0 million.
The election was stolen.
Just because Bush won the "official" recorded vote in 2004 does not mean that Kerry did not win the True Vote with 52-53% of the vote.
The election was stolen.
Just because the Democrats won 30 House seats in 2006 with 52% share does not mean that they did not really win 10-20 more seats with a 55% share.
The landslide was denied.
Just because Obama won by 9.5m votes with 53% share does not mean that millions of votes were stolen and he had a 57% share.
The landslide was denied.
According to the Final 2008 NEP, 5.2m (4%) of the 2008 electorate were returning 2004 third- party voters. But there were only 1.2m third-party voters. It’s 2006 all over again – the number of third-party voters was inflated from 1% to 4%. Why did the NEP do inflate other voters. Of course, they had to match the recorded vote – but why the sleight-of-hand in such an obvious way? Well, they also got away with inflating the third-party vote in the 2006 midterms. But why did they take the chance that it would be noticed this time?
There had to be a reason. One possibility ids that they had to provide cover for the pre-election likely voter (LV) polls, so they had to lower the Final NEP new voter percentage mix from 16% to 13%. Keeping it at 16% would suggest there were 21m new voters - not 17m with 13%. More new voters meant a bigger Obama margin. The LV polls had Obama was leading by 7% before undecided voters were allocated; the RV polls indicated a 13% spread (16% after UVA).
The MSM wants us to believe that Obama has a 53% vote share - matching the LV polls. The MSM doesn’t mention the final RV polls that had Obama up by 13-16%.
On the RealClearPolitics (RCP) site the last RV poll listed was from Ipsos on 10/13. RCP did not list final Nov.2 RV tracking polls from Gallup and ABC/WP which both show a 13% Obama margin before UVA.
The combination of pre-election LV polls (with UVA) and 71% of new voters (from the NEP) gives the same 57% RV poll result. Did you read about this in the NY Times or see it on MSNBC or CNN or other Political Web sites?
This is why the media does not discuss RV polls and lists only LV polls:
1)The National Exit Poll must match the official recorded vote (and the LV polls) so the pollsters
2) had to reduce the percentage of new voters in the 2008 NEP because they
3) could not increase the number of returning Bush voters by 3% (it was already an impossible 46%).
4)Therefore, the exit pollsters had to raise the number of returning other third-party voters by 3%.
This statement from Frank Newport of the Gallup organization is interesting:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109135/Who-Likely-Voters-When-They-Matter.aspx
"Republicans have historically been more likely to qualify as likely voters under Gallup's model (a fact that has been borne out in the real world as Republicans are able to win elections despite facing deficits in party identification or pre-election standing among all national adults)".
So that's how the Republican's win elections? Apparently Election Fraud had nothing to do with it.
Newport goes on to say:
"The analysis of the results of a registered and likely voter model shows how voter preferences might change given certain assumptions. The registered voter number, which would be equivalent to all eligible voters turning out, generally produces more stable estimates. This is the number that Gallup's Daily tracking poll has reported to date".
RV's generally produces "more stable estimates". Well, stable RV polls are preferable to volatile LV polls. Isn't that what we want - consistency?
"The likely voter model gives a sense of what voter preferences might look like if those most likely to vote -- based on their current interest in the election along with their past voting behavior -- voted. The likely voter group measures hypothetical turnout "if the election were held today" with the understanding that conditions will change between now and the election, and knowing that well-designed and executed opinion polls can only measure the current state of affairs and not project many months into the future".
The key phrase is "...along with their past voting behavior". Ok, if you never voted before, that means you're probably not a likely voter. To Gallup's credit, they continued their registered voter tracking poll right up to the election. The final RV poll had Obama leading by 53-40%, with about 5% undecided.
This is what RCP had to say about inclusion of the Gallup RV tracking poll: "When a pollster or media outlet reports multiple horserace numbers RealClearPolitics uses "Registered Voter" results over "Adults" and "Likely Voters" numbers over "Registered Voter" results in the RCP Poll Averages".
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/gallup_poll_daily_tracking_1.html
[code]
2008
Summary Obama McCain Spread Obama McCain
Recorded 52.87 45.62 7.25
Average
75% UVA 25% UVA
Final 25 LV 50.84 42.60 8.24 54.64 43.87
Final 9 LV 51.00 43.56 7.44 53.96 44.54
Final 10 RV 50.30 40.00 10.30 56.45 42.05
Diff 0.70 3.54 (2.86) (2.49) 2.49
2004 Kerry Bush Spread Kerry Bush
Recorded 48.27 50.73 2.46
Exit Poll 52.0 47.0
Average
75% UVA 25% UVA
Final 9 LV 47.67 47.56 0.11 50.50 48.50
Final 9 RV 46.89 46.22 0.77 51.31 47.69
Diff 0.78 1.34 0.34 -0.81 0.81
75% UVA 25% UVA
2008 Sample Obama McCain Spread Obama McCain
Average Final 9 LV 51.00 43.56 7.44 53.96 44.54
Zogby 11/01 - 11/03 1201 54 43 11 55.13 43.38
Marist 11/03 - 11/03 804 52 43 9 54.63 43.88
FOX 11/02 - 11/03 971 50 43 7 54.13 44.38
Res2k 10/31 - 11/02 1100 51 44 7 53.63 44.88
Hotline 10/31 - 11/02 882 50 45 5 52.63 45.88
Rasmus 10/31 - 11/02 3000 51 46 5 52.13 46.38
NBC/WSJ 11/01 - 11/02 1011 51 43 8 54.38 44.13
CNN 10/30 - 11/01 1017 51 43 8 54.38 44.13
Pew 10/30 - 11/01 2587 49 42 7 54.63 43.88
Final 10 RV Polls (10/04-11/02)
75%UVA 25% UVA
Poll Poll Sample Obama McCain Spread Obama McCain Spread
10 RV Date Average 50.30 40.00 10.30 56.45 42.05 14.40
Gallup 10/31 - 11/02 2847 53 40 13 57.13 41.38 15.75
ABC/WP 10/31 - 11/02 2446 54 41 13 56.63 41.88 14.75
Pew 10/29 - 11/01 1325 50 39 11 57.13 41.38 15.75
Pew 10/23 - 10/26 1325 52 36 16 59.88 38.63 21.25
NBC/WSJ 10/18 - 10/20 1159 52 42 10 55.38 43.13 12.25
Ipsos 10/09 - 10/13 1036 48 39 9 56.63 41.88 14.75
Newswk 10/08 - 10/09 1035 52 41 11 56.13 42.38 13.75
FOX 10/08 - 10/09 900 46 39 7 56.13 42.38 13.75
Ipsos 10/02 - 10/06 858 47 40 7 55.63 42.88 12.75
NBC/WSJ 10/04 - 10/05 658 49 43 6 53.88 44.63 9.25
2004 Averages
Date RCP Kerry Bush Spread Kerry Bush
75% UVA 25% UVA
7/6-11/01
133 Polls 45.50 47.40 2.00 49.30 48.60
7/6-11/01
102 LV 45.60 48.10 2.50 49.00 49.20
40 RV 45.45 45.33 0.13 50.41 46.99
Diff 0.15 2.78 2.38 (1.41) 2.21
10/22-11/01
Final 9 LV 47.67 47.56 0.11 50.50 48.50
Final 9 RV 46.89 46.22 0.67 51.31 47.69
Diff 0.78 1.34 (0.56) (0.81) 0.81
10/29-11/01
Final 5 LV 47.40 48.80 1.40 49.47 49.51
Final 5 RV 47.40 45.60 1.80 51.90 47.10
Diff 0.00 3.20 (0.40) (2.43) 2.41
1222am NEP
Voted in 2000 51.41 47.59 3.82 6.28 within 0.6 of unadj exit poll
Unadj EP (WPE) 52.00 47.00 5.00 7.46 within 0.7 of 9 RV poll average
2004 Election Model
Final 18 Polls
(9RV, 9LV)
http://www.pollingreport.comwh04gen.htm
Sample Final Poll 75%UVA 25%UVA
Election Date Size Kerry Bush Kerry Bush
18 Poll Avg 1720 47.28 46.89 50.90 48.10
9 LV Avg 47.67 47.56 50.50 48.50
Zogby 2-Nov 1200 47 48 50.00 49.00
Harris 2-Nov 5508 50 47 51.50 47.50
TIPP 1-Nov 1284 44 45 51.50 47.50
Marist 1-Nov 1166 49 48 50.50 48.50
NBC 31-Oct 1014 47 48 50.00 49.00
DemCorp 31-Oct 1018 48 47 51.00 48.00
ARG 30-Oct 1258 49 48 50.50 48.50
Time 21-Oct 803 46 51 47.50 51.50
AP 20-Oct 976 49 46 52.00 47.00
9 RV Avg 46.89 46.22 51.31 47.69
CBS 1-Nov 1125 46 47 50.50 48.50
Econ 1-Nov 2903 49 45 52.75 46.25
ABC 31-Oct 3511 48 47 51.00 48.00
Gallup 31-Oct 1866 48 46 51.75 47.25
FOX 31-Oct 1400 48 45 52.50 46.50
Pew 30-Oct 2408 46 45 52.00 47.00
Nwk 29-Oct 1005 45 48 49.50 49.50
ICR 26-Oct 817 44 46 50.75 48.25
LAT 24-Oct 1698 48 47 51.00 48.00
In addition, RV and LV polls do not allocate undecided voters (UVA). These voters usually break by 70-90% for the challenger (Kerry and Obama). Add in the uncounted Democratic votes (75% of 3.4 million in 2004). That's why RV polls are superior to LV polls in approximating the True Vote. LV polls are better for matching to a miscounted vote.
The latest myth is that the final LV polls were exactly right - Obama won by 7%. Approximately 24% of total votes cast (16% new, 5% undecided and 3% uncounted) are strongly Democratic. These voters add 12% to the Democratic margin. The LV polls did not account for 30 million new, undecided and uncounted votes. That's why Obama doubled the his recorded 7% margin.
The Democrats won major landslides in the last two elections due to a) a massive new voter registration and GOTV effort, b) returning Democrats who were highly motivated to punish Bush for stealing both elections and c) former Republicans and Independents who finally came to the realization that voting for Bush was a big mistake- and they did not want McCain to continue the same failed policies.
Just because Gore won the "official" recorded vote by 540,000 in 2000 does not mean that he did not win the True Vote by over 3.0 million.
The election was stolen.
Just because Bush won the "official" recorded vote in 2004 does not mean that Kerry did not win the True Vote with 52-53% of the vote.
The election was stolen.
Just because the Democrats won 30 House seats in 2006 with 52% share does not mean that they did not really win 10-20 more seats with a 55% share.
The landslide was denied.
Just because Obama won by 9.5m votes with 53% share does not mean that millions of votes were stolen and he had a 57% share.
The landslide was denied.
According to the Final 2008 NEP, 5.2m (4%) of the 2008 electorate were returning 2004 third- party voters. But there were only 1.2m third-party voters. It’s 2006 all over again – the number of third-party voters was inflated from 1% to 4%. Why did the NEP do inflate other voters. Of course, they had to match the recorded vote – but why the sleight-of-hand in such an obvious way? Well, they also got away with inflating the third-party vote in the 2006 midterms. But why did they take the chance that it would be noticed this time?
There had to be a reason. One possibility ids that they had to provide cover for the pre-election likely voter (LV) polls, so they had to lower the Final NEP new voter percentage mix from 16% to 13%. Keeping it at 16% would suggest there were 21m new voters - not 17m with 13%. More new voters meant a bigger Obama margin. The LV polls had Obama was leading by 7% before undecided voters were allocated; the RV polls indicated a 13% spread (16% after UVA).
The MSM wants us to believe that Obama has a 53% vote share - matching the LV polls. The MSM doesn’t mention the final RV polls that had Obama up by 13-16%.
On the RealClearPolitics (RCP) site the last RV poll listed was from Ipsos on 10/13. RCP did not list final Nov.2 RV tracking polls from Gallup and ABC/WP which both show a 13% Obama margin before UVA.
The combination of pre-election LV polls (with UVA) and 71% of new voters (from the NEP) gives the same 57% RV poll result. Did you read about this in the NY Times or see it on MSNBC or CNN or other Political Web sites?
This is why the media does not discuss RV polls and lists only LV polls:
1)The National Exit Poll must match the official recorded vote (and the LV polls) so the pollsters
2) had to reduce the percentage of new voters in the 2008 NEP because they
3) could not increase the number of returning Bush voters by 3% (it was already an impossible 46%).
4)Therefore, the exit pollsters had to raise the number of returning other third-party voters by 3%.
This statement from Frank Newport of the Gallup organization is interesting:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109135/Who-Likely-Voters-When-They-Matter.aspx
"Republicans have historically been more likely to qualify as likely voters under Gallup's model (a fact that has been borne out in the real world as Republicans are able to win elections despite facing deficits in party identification or pre-election standing among all national adults)".
So that's how the Republican's win elections? Apparently Election Fraud had nothing to do with it.
Newport goes on to say:
"The analysis of the results of a registered and likely voter model shows how voter preferences might change given certain assumptions. The registered voter number, which would be equivalent to all eligible voters turning out, generally produces more stable estimates. This is the number that Gallup's Daily tracking poll has reported to date".
RV's generally produces "more stable estimates". Well, stable RV polls are preferable to volatile LV polls. Isn't that what we want - consistency?
"The likely voter model gives a sense of what voter preferences might look like if those most likely to vote -- based on their current interest in the election along with their past voting behavior -- voted. The likely voter group measures hypothetical turnout "if the election were held today" with the understanding that conditions will change between now and the election, and knowing that well-designed and executed opinion polls can only measure the current state of affairs and not project many months into the future".
The key phrase is "...along with their past voting behavior". Ok, if you never voted before, that means you're probably not a likely voter. To Gallup's credit, they continued their registered voter tracking poll right up to the election. The final RV poll had Obama leading by 53-40%, with about 5% undecided.
This is what RCP had to say about inclusion of the Gallup RV tracking poll: "When a pollster or media outlet reports multiple horserace numbers RealClearPolitics uses "Registered Voter" results over "Adults" and "Likely Voters" numbers over "Registered Voter" results in the RCP Poll Averages".
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/gallup_poll_daily_tracking_1.html
[code]
2008
Summary Obama McCain Spread Obama McCain
Recorded 52.87 45.62 7.25
Average
75% UVA 25% UVA
Final 25 LV 50.84 42.60 8.24 54.64 43.87
Final 9 LV 51.00 43.56 7.44 53.96 44.54
Final 10 RV 50.30 40.00 10.30 56.45 42.05
Diff 0.70 3.54 (2.86) (2.49) 2.49
2004 Kerry Bush Spread Kerry Bush
Recorded 48.27 50.73 2.46
Exit Poll 52.0 47.0
Average
75% UVA 25% UVA
Final 9 LV 47.67 47.56 0.11 50.50 48.50
Final 9 RV 46.89 46.22 0.77 51.31 47.69
Diff 0.78 1.34 0.34 -0.81 0.81
75% UVA 25% UVA
2008 Sample Obama McCain Spread Obama McCain
Average Final 9 LV 51.00 43.56 7.44 53.96 44.54
Zogby 11/01 - 11/03 1201 54 43 11 55.13 43.38
Marist 11/03 - 11/03 804 52 43 9 54.63 43.88
FOX 11/02 - 11/03 971 50 43 7 54.13 44.38
Res2k 10/31 - 11/02 1100 51 44 7 53.63 44.88
Hotline 10/31 - 11/02 882 50 45 5 52.63 45.88
Rasmus 10/31 - 11/02 3000 51 46 5 52.13 46.38
NBC/WSJ 11/01 - 11/02 1011 51 43 8 54.38 44.13
CNN 10/30 - 11/01 1017 51 43 8 54.38 44.13
Pew 10/30 - 11/01 2587 49 42 7 54.63 43.88
Final 10 RV Polls (10/04-11/02)
75%UVA 25% UVA
Poll Poll Sample Obama McCain Spread Obama McCain Spread
10 RV Date Average 50.30 40.00 10.30 56.45 42.05 14.40
Gallup 10/31 - 11/02 2847 53 40 13 57.13 41.38 15.75
ABC/WP 10/31 - 11/02 2446 54 41 13 56.63 41.88 14.75
Pew 10/29 - 11/01 1325 50 39 11 57.13 41.38 15.75
Pew 10/23 - 10/26 1325 52 36 16 59.88 38.63 21.25
NBC/WSJ 10/18 - 10/20 1159 52 42 10 55.38 43.13 12.25
Ipsos 10/09 - 10/13 1036 48 39 9 56.63 41.88 14.75
Newswk 10/08 - 10/09 1035 52 41 11 56.13 42.38 13.75
FOX 10/08 - 10/09 900 46 39 7 56.13 42.38 13.75
Ipsos 10/02 - 10/06 858 47 40 7 55.63 42.88 12.75
NBC/WSJ 10/04 - 10/05 658 49 43 6 53.88 44.63 9.25
2004 Averages
Date RCP Kerry Bush Spread Kerry Bush
75% UVA 25% UVA
7/6-11/01
133 Polls 45.50 47.40 2.00 49.30 48.60
7/6-11/01
102 LV 45.60 48.10 2.50 49.00 49.20
40 RV 45.45 45.33 0.13 50.41 46.99
Diff 0.15 2.78 2.38 (1.41) 2.21
10/22-11/01
Final 9 LV 47.67 47.56 0.11 50.50 48.50
Final 9 RV 46.89 46.22 0.67 51.31 47.69
Diff 0.78 1.34 (0.56) (0.81) 0.81
10/29-11/01
Final 5 LV 47.40 48.80 1.40 49.47 49.51
Final 5 RV 47.40 45.60 1.80 51.90 47.10
Diff 0.00 3.20 (0.40) (2.43) 2.41
1222am NEP
Voted in 2000 51.41 47.59 3.82 6.28 within 0.6 of unadj exit poll
Unadj EP (WPE) 52.00 47.00 5.00 7.46 within 0.7 of 9 RV poll average
2004 Election Model
Final 18 Polls
(9RV, 9LV)
http://www.pollingreport.comwh04gen.htm
Sample Final Poll 75%UVA 25%UVA
Election Date Size Kerry Bush Kerry Bush
18 Poll Avg 1720 47.28 46.89 50.90 48.10
9 LV Avg 47.67 47.56 50.50 48.50
Zogby 2-Nov 1200 47 48 50.00 49.00
Harris 2-Nov 5508 50 47 51.50 47.50
TIPP 1-Nov 1284 44 45 51.50 47.50
Marist 1-Nov 1166 49 48 50.50 48.50
NBC 31-Oct 1014 47 48 50.00 49.00
DemCorp 31-Oct 1018 48 47 51.00 48.00
ARG 30-Oct 1258 49 48 50.50 48.50
Time 21-Oct 803 46 51 47.50 51.50
AP 20-Oct 976 49 46 52.00 47.00
9 RV Avg 46.89 46.22 51.31 47.69
CBS 1-Nov 1125 46 47 50.50 48.50
Econ 1-Nov 2903 49 45 52.75 46.25
ABC 31-Oct 3511 48 47 51.00 48.00
Gallup 31-Oct 1866 48 46 51.75 47.25
FOX 31-Oct 1400 48 45 52.50 46.50
Pew 30-Oct 2408 46 45 52.00 47.00
Nwk 29-Oct 1005 45 48 49.50 49.50
ICR 26-Oct 817 44 46 50.75 48.25
LAT 24-Oct 1698 48 47 51.00 48.00