TruthIsAll
02-03-2009, 03:51 PM
Prior Election Returning Voters: Mathematical proof that fraud cost Obama and Kerry over 6 million votes
TruthIsAll
Jan. 29, 2009
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/PriorElectionReturningVoterProofNEP.htm
Simple mathematics proves that the 2004 and 2008 elections were fraudulent. In both elections, the returning voter mix required for the Final National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote was not just implausible – it was impossible. According to the Final NEP, more former Bush 2000 and 2004 voters returned to vote than were living in 2004 and 2008. The statistical anomaly has no rational explanation other than election fraud. The fact that it occurred twice is not coincidental.
Proving that Obama and Kerry both did much better than the official recorded vote is really a straightforward exercise in logic. The key measure is turnout of prior election voters in the current election. A plausible voter mix is derived by adjusting the 2000, 2004 and 2008 recorded votes for a 1.2% annual mortality rate and assuming a 95% turnout of prior election voters still living. When reasonable, plausible estimates are made for returning (and new) voters, the resulting Obama and Kerry shares are 4% (and more than 6 million votes) higher than the official shares.
Based on the recorded 2000 vote, Bush voter turnout in 2004 was an impossible 110.4%; Gore voter turnout was a plausible 94%. Based on the recorded 2004 vote, Bush voter turnout in 2008 was an impossible 102%; Kerry voter turnout was an implausibly low 87%. Coincidentally, based on the 2004 unadjusted exit poll, Bush voter turnout in 2008 was 110.4%; Kerry voter turnout was a ridiculously low 80%.
Note that there is no possible rebuttal of the recorded vote and mortality rates. The only unknown is the percent turnout of prior election voters (still living) who returned to vote. But unlike the implied NEP turnout, they must surely be less than 100%. The 95% turnout assumption is based on historical turnout rates. Since prior election voter turnout determines the number of new voters, a sensitivity analysis is required to analyze various Gore/Bush and Kerry/Bush returning voter scenarios. The sensitivity tables display the Obama and Kerry vote shares for each combination. This should satisfy those who question base case Kerry/Bush 95% equal turnout assumption. The effects of deviations from the base case on the Obama and Kerry True vote shares are minimal.
In 2008, Obama won the recorded vote by 9.5 million (69.5-59.9m). The analysis indicates that at minimum, he won by a 16m vote margin (73-57m) since it assumes the 62-59m recorded 2004 vote (zero fraud). Assuming the more-likely scenario that Kerry won by the unadjusted aggregate exit poll (52-47%), then Obama won by 22 million (76-54m).
Since the US 2008 Vote Census is not available, uncounted votes are not included in the analysis. In every election, 70-80% of uncounted votes are Democratic. Kerry won by 52.5-46.1% (64-56m) - not including his share of 3.45 million uncounted votes. The calculated Obama and Kerry True Vote shares are therefore both conservative.
The shares of returning voters are based on the National Exit Poll. The preliminary NEP is the best source. The Preliminary 2008 NEP is not available, so the Final published shares were used. In 2004, the Final NEP increased the Bush share of returning and new voters over the preliminary 12:22am NEP and also changed the Bush/Gore returning voter mix from 41/39% to 43/37%. These changes were necessary in order to match the recorded count.
To match the 2008 recorded vote:
Assuming the 2004 recorded vote and 100% prior voter turnout,
86.5% of Kerry and 102.3% of Bush voters had to turn out in 2008.
Assuming the 2004 unadjusted exit poll and 95% prior voter turnout,
84.5% of Kerry and 116.4% of Bush voters had to turn out in 2008.
To match the 2004 recorded vote:
Assuming the 2000 recorded vote and 100% prior voter turnout,
94.0% of Gore and 110.4% of Bush voters had to turn out in 2004.
Assuming the 2000 unadjusted exit poll and 95% prior voter turnout,
96.9% of Gore and 118.6% of Bush voters had to turn out in 2004.
[code]
Final National Exit Poll
Prior Election Voter Turnout Required to Match the Recorded Vote
2008 Voter Turnout
Kerry Actual ExitP Actual ExitP
Share 48.27% 52.0% 48.27% 52.0%
Turnout 100% 100% 95% 95%
2008 NEP
Kerry 86.5% 80.3% 91.0% 84.5% implausible
Bush 102.3% 110.4% 107.7% 116.2% impossible
Other 451.3% 451.3% 475.1% 475.1% impossible
2004 Voter Turnout
Gore Actual ExitP Actual ExitP
Share 48.38% 49.4% 48.38% 49.4%
Turnout 100% 100% 95% 95%
2004 NEP
Gore 94.0% 92.0% 98.9% 96.9% plausible
Bush 110.4% 112.6% 116.2% 118.6% impossible
Other 98.1% 98.1% 103.3% 104.9% plausible/impossible
2008 National Exit Poll
2004 Mix Voted Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 13% 17.08 71% 27% 2% 12.13 4.61 0.34
Kerry 37% 48.61 89% 9% 2% 43.26 4.37 0.97
Bush 46% 60.43 17% 82% 1% 10.27 49.55 0.60
Other 4% 5.25 66% 24% 10% 3.47 1.26 0.53
Total 100% 131.37 52.62% 45.52% 1.86% 69.13 59.80 2.44
Margin 9.33
Bush and Other voter turnout is impossible.
Calculate a plausible returning voter mix assuming 4.8% mortality and 95% turnout.
1. Returning voters based on 2004 recorded vote
2004 Actual ExitP Voted Died Alive Turnout Voted08 %Voted %Alive
Kerry 48.27% 52.0% 59.03 2.83 56.20 95% 53.39 91.0% 86.5%
Bush 50.73% 47.0 62.04 2.98 59.06 95% 56.11 107.7% 102.3%
Other 1.00% 1.00% 1.22 0.06 1.16 95% 1.11 475.1% 451.3%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 122.30 5.87 116.43 95% 110.61 118.8% 112.8%
Turnout 2004 Mix Voted Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 20.76 71% 27% 2% 14.74 5.61 0.42
95% Kerry 40.6% 53.39 89% 9% 2% 47.52 4.81 1.07
95% Bush 42.7% 56.11 17% 82% 1% 9.54 46.01 0.56
95% Other 0.8% 1.11 66% 24% 10% 0.73 0.27 0.11
Total 100.0% 131.37 55.21% 43.15% 1.64% 72.53 56.69 2.15
Margin 15.84
2. Returning voters based on 2004 unadjusted exit poll
2004 Actual ExitP Voted Died Alive Turnout Voted08 %Voted %Alive
Kerry 48.27% 52.00% 63.60 3.05 60.54 95% 57.52 84.5% 80.3%
Bush 50.73% 47.00% 57.48 2.76 54.72 95% 51.99 116.2% 110.4%
Other 1.00% 1.00% 1.22 0.06 1.16 95% 1.11 475.1% 451.3%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 122.30 5.87 116.43 95% 110.61 118.8% 112.8%
Turnout 2004 Mix Voted Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 20.76 71% 27% 2% 14.74 5.61 0.42
95% Kerry 43.8% 57.52 89% 9% 2% 51.19 5.18 1.15
95% Bush 39.6% 51.99 17% 82% 1% 8.84 42.63 0.52
95% Other 0.8% 1.11 66% 24% 10% 0.73 0.27 0.11
Total 100.0% 131.37 57.47% 40.86% 1.67% 75.50 53.68 2.20
Margin 21.82
Sensitivity of Obama share to Kerry 2004 vote share and Bush voter turnout in 2008
Obama Vote Share
95% Kerry Voter Turnout
Bush Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry
Voter Actual NEP ExitP True Vote
Turnout 48.27% 49.0% 50.0% 51.0% 52.0% 53.1%
85% 57.6% 58.0% 58.6% 59.2% 59.7% 60.4%
90% 56.4% 56.8% 57.4% 58.0% 58.6% 59.3%
95% 55.21% 55.7% 56.3% 56.9% 57.47% 58.2%
100% 54.0% 54.5% 55.1% 55.7% 56.3% 57.1%
105% 52.78% 53.3% 53.9% 54.6% 55.22% 56.0%
110% 51.6% 52.1% 52.7% 53.4% 54.1% 54.9%
115% 50.4% 50.9% 51.6% 52.3% 53.0% 53.8%
Obama Margin
85% 22.3 23.4 24.8 26.3 27.8 29.5
90% 19.1 20.2 21.7 23.3 24.8 26.6
95% 15.8 17.0 18.6 20.2 21.8 23.7
100% 12.6 13.8 15.5 17.2 18.8 20.7
105% 9.4 10.7 12.4 14.1 15.9 17.8
110% 6.2 7.5 9.3 11.1 12.9 14.9
115% 3.0 4.3 6.2 8.0 9.9 12.0
Sensitivity of Obama share to Kerry and Bush voter turnout in 2008
1. Returning voters based on recorded 2004 vote
Even with 85% Kerry and 95% Bush voter turnout, Obama has 54.4%.
Obama Vote Share
Bush voter
Turnout Kerry Voter Turnout
85% 90% 95% 100%
85% 56.9% 57.3% 57.6% 58.0%
90% 55.7% 56.0% 56.4% 56.8%
95% 54.4% 54.8% 55.21% 55.6%
100% 53.2% 53.6% 54.0% 54.4%
105% 52.0% 52.4% 52.8% 53.2%
110% 50.8% 51.2% 51.6% 52.0%
115% 49.6% 50.0% 50.4% 50.7%
Obama Margin
85% 20.25 21.27 22.28 23.29
90% 17.04 18.05 19.06 20.07
95% 13.82 14.83 15.84 16.85
100% 10.60 11.61 12.62 13.63
105% 7.38 8.39 9.40 10.41
110% 4.16 5.17 6.18 7.19
115% 0.94 1.95 2.96 3.98
2. Returning voters based on 2004 unadjusted exit poll
Even with 85% Kerry and 95% Bush voter turnout, Obama had 56.6%.
Bush voter
Turnout Kerry Voter Turnout
85% 90% 95% 100%
85% 58.9% 59.3% 59.7% 60.1%
90% 57.8% 58.2% 58.6% 59.0%
95% 56.6% 57.1% 57.47% 57.9%
100% 55.5% 55.9% 56.3% 56.8%
105% 54.4% 54.8% 55.2% 55.6%
110% 53.3% 53.7% 54.1% 54.5%
115% 52.1% 52.6% 53.0% 53.4%
Obama Margin
85% 25.61 26.70 27.79 28.88
90% 22.62 23.71 24.80 25.89
95% 19.64 20.73 21.82 22.91
100% 16.66 17.75 18.84 19.93
105% 13.68 14.77 15.86 16.95
110% 10.70 11.79 12.87 13.96
115% 7.71 8.80 9.89 10.98
_______________________________________________________________________
2004 National Exit Poll
Bush 2000 voter turnout in 2004 is impossible.
Calculate a returning 2000 voter mix assuming 4.8% mortality and 95% turnout of 2000 voters.
Scenario 1: Returning voters based on 2000 Recorded Vote
1. Final 2004 National Exit Poll Vote Shares
2000 Actual ExitP Votes Died Alive Turnout Voted04
Gore 48.38% 49.40% 51.00 2.45 48.56 95% 46.13
Bush 47.86% 46.90% 50.46 2.42 48.03 95% 45.63
Other 3.76% 3.70% 3.96 0.22 3.74 95% 3.56
Total 100.0% 100.0% 105.42 5.06 100.33 95% 95.32
Turnout 2004 Mix Votes Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
New 22.1% 26.98 54% 45% 1% 14.57 12.14 0.27
95% Gore 37.7% 46.13 90% 10% 0% 41.52 4.61 0.00
95% Bush 37.3% 45.63 9% 91% 0% 4.11 41.53 0.00
95% Other 2.9% 3.56 71% 21% 8% 2.52 0.75 0.28
Total 100.0% 122.30 51.28% 48.26% 0.45% 62.72 59.03 0.55
Margin 3.69
2. 12:22am National Exit Poll Vote Shares
Turnout 2004 Mix Votes Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
New 22.1% 26.98 57% 41% 2% 15.38 11.06 0.54
95% Gore 37.7% 46.13 91% 8% 1% 41.98 3.69 0.46
95% Bush 37.3% 45.63 10% 90% 0% 4.56 41.07 0.00
95% Other 2.9% 3.56 64% 17% 19% 2.28 0.60 0.68
Total 100.0% 122.30 52.49% 46.14% 1.37% 64.20 56.43 1.68
Margin 7.77
Sensitivity of Kerry Vote Share to Gore and Bush voter turnout in 2004
Even if 100% of Bush 2000 voters turned out and only 85% of Gore voters, Kerry had 50.2%
Bush Kerry Vote Share
2000 Gore Voter Turnout
Turnout 85% 90% 95% 100%
in 2004
85% 53.0% 53.7% 54.3% 55.0%
90% 52.1% 52.7% 53.4% 54.1%
95% 51.1% 51.8% 52.49% 53.2%
100% 50.2% 50.9% 51.6% 52.2%
105% 49.3% 50.0% 50.6% 51.3%
110% 48.4% 49.0% 49.7% 50.4%
115% 47.4% 48.1% 48.8% 49.5%
Kerry Margin
85% 9.13 10.75 12.38 14.01
90% 6.82 8.45 10.07 11.70
95% 4.52 6.14 7.77 9.40
100% 2.21 3.84 5.46 7.09
105% -0.10 1.53 3.16 4.78
110% -2.40 -0.77 0.85 2.48
115% -4.71 -3.08 -1.45 0.17
Scenario 2: Returning 2000 voters based on 2000 Unadjusted Exit Poll
2000 Actual ExitP Votes Died Alive Turnout Voted04
Gore 48.38% 49.40% 52.08 2.50 49.58 95% 47.10
Bush 47.86% 46.90% 49.44 2.37 47.07 95% 44.72
Other 3.76% 3.70% 3.90 0.22 3.68 95% 3.50
Total 100.0% 100.0% 105.42 5.06 100.33 95% 95.31
1. Final National Exit Poll Vote Shares
Turnout 2004 Mix Votes Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
New 22.1% 26.99 54% 45% 1% 14.57 12.14 0.27
95% Gore 38.5% 47.10 90% 10% 0% 42.39 4.71 0.00
95% Bush 36.6% 44.72 9% 91% 0% 4.02 40.69 0.00
95% Other 2.9% 3.50 71% 21% 8% 2.48 0.73 0.28
Total 100.0% 122.30 51.90% 47.65% 0.45% 63.47 58.28 0.55
Margin 5.19
2. 12:22am National Exit Poll Vote Shares
Turnout 2004 Mix Votes Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
New 22.1% 26.99 57% 41% 2% 15.38 11.06 0.54
95% Gore 38.5% 47.10 91% 8% 1% 42.86 3.77 0.47
95% Bush 36.6% 44.72 10% 90% 0% 4.47 40.24 0.00
95% Other 2.9% 3.50 64% 17% 19% 2.24 0.59 0.66
Total 100.0% 122.30 53.11% 45.52% 1.37% 64.95 55.67 1.68
Margin 9.28
Sensitivity of Kerry Vote Share to Gore and Bush voter turnout in 2004
Even if 100% of Bush 2000 voters turned out and only 85% of Gore voters, Kerry had 50.8%
Bush Kerry Vote Share
2000 Gore Voter Turnout
Turnout
in 2004 85% 90% 95% 100%
85% 53.5% 54.2% 54.9% 55.6%
90% 52.6% 53.3% 54.0% 54.7%
95% 51.7% 52.4% 53.11% 53.8%
100% 50.8% 51.5% 52.2% 52.9%
105% 49.9% 50.6% 51.3% 52.0%
110% 49.0% 49.7% 50.4% 51.1%
115% 48.1% 48.8% 49.5% 50.2%
Kerry Margin
85% 10.48 12.14 13.80 15.46
90% 8.22 9.88 11.54 13.20
95% 5.96 7.62 9.28 10.94
100% 3.70 5.36 7.02 8.68
105% 1.44 3.10 4.76 6.42
110% -0.82 0.84 2.50 4.17
115% -3.08 -1.42 0.25 1.91
TruthIsAll
Jan. 29, 2009
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/PriorElectionReturningVoterProofNEP.htm
Simple mathematics proves that the 2004 and 2008 elections were fraudulent. In both elections, the returning voter mix required for the Final National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote was not just implausible – it was impossible. According to the Final NEP, more former Bush 2000 and 2004 voters returned to vote than were living in 2004 and 2008. The statistical anomaly has no rational explanation other than election fraud. The fact that it occurred twice is not coincidental.
Proving that Obama and Kerry both did much better than the official recorded vote is really a straightforward exercise in logic. The key measure is turnout of prior election voters in the current election. A plausible voter mix is derived by adjusting the 2000, 2004 and 2008 recorded votes for a 1.2% annual mortality rate and assuming a 95% turnout of prior election voters still living. When reasonable, plausible estimates are made for returning (and new) voters, the resulting Obama and Kerry shares are 4% (and more than 6 million votes) higher than the official shares.
Based on the recorded 2000 vote, Bush voter turnout in 2004 was an impossible 110.4%; Gore voter turnout was a plausible 94%. Based on the recorded 2004 vote, Bush voter turnout in 2008 was an impossible 102%; Kerry voter turnout was an implausibly low 87%. Coincidentally, based on the 2004 unadjusted exit poll, Bush voter turnout in 2008 was 110.4%; Kerry voter turnout was a ridiculously low 80%.
Note that there is no possible rebuttal of the recorded vote and mortality rates. The only unknown is the percent turnout of prior election voters (still living) who returned to vote. But unlike the implied NEP turnout, they must surely be less than 100%. The 95% turnout assumption is based on historical turnout rates. Since prior election voter turnout determines the number of new voters, a sensitivity analysis is required to analyze various Gore/Bush and Kerry/Bush returning voter scenarios. The sensitivity tables display the Obama and Kerry vote shares for each combination. This should satisfy those who question base case Kerry/Bush 95% equal turnout assumption. The effects of deviations from the base case on the Obama and Kerry True vote shares are minimal.
In 2008, Obama won the recorded vote by 9.5 million (69.5-59.9m). The analysis indicates that at minimum, he won by a 16m vote margin (73-57m) since it assumes the 62-59m recorded 2004 vote (zero fraud). Assuming the more-likely scenario that Kerry won by the unadjusted aggregate exit poll (52-47%), then Obama won by 22 million (76-54m).
Since the US 2008 Vote Census is not available, uncounted votes are not included in the analysis. In every election, 70-80% of uncounted votes are Democratic. Kerry won by 52.5-46.1% (64-56m) - not including his share of 3.45 million uncounted votes. The calculated Obama and Kerry True Vote shares are therefore both conservative.
The shares of returning voters are based on the National Exit Poll. The preliminary NEP is the best source. The Preliminary 2008 NEP is not available, so the Final published shares were used. In 2004, the Final NEP increased the Bush share of returning and new voters over the preliminary 12:22am NEP and also changed the Bush/Gore returning voter mix from 41/39% to 43/37%. These changes were necessary in order to match the recorded count.
To match the 2008 recorded vote:
Assuming the 2004 recorded vote and 100% prior voter turnout,
86.5% of Kerry and 102.3% of Bush voters had to turn out in 2008.
Assuming the 2004 unadjusted exit poll and 95% prior voter turnout,
84.5% of Kerry and 116.4% of Bush voters had to turn out in 2008.
To match the 2004 recorded vote:
Assuming the 2000 recorded vote and 100% prior voter turnout,
94.0% of Gore and 110.4% of Bush voters had to turn out in 2004.
Assuming the 2000 unadjusted exit poll and 95% prior voter turnout,
96.9% of Gore and 118.6% of Bush voters had to turn out in 2004.
[code]
Final National Exit Poll
Prior Election Voter Turnout Required to Match the Recorded Vote
2008 Voter Turnout
Kerry Actual ExitP Actual ExitP
Share 48.27% 52.0% 48.27% 52.0%
Turnout 100% 100% 95% 95%
2008 NEP
Kerry 86.5% 80.3% 91.0% 84.5% implausible
Bush 102.3% 110.4% 107.7% 116.2% impossible
Other 451.3% 451.3% 475.1% 475.1% impossible
2004 Voter Turnout
Gore Actual ExitP Actual ExitP
Share 48.38% 49.4% 48.38% 49.4%
Turnout 100% 100% 95% 95%
2004 NEP
Gore 94.0% 92.0% 98.9% 96.9% plausible
Bush 110.4% 112.6% 116.2% 118.6% impossible
Other 98.1% 98.1% 103.3% 104.9% plausible/impossible
2008 National Exit Poll
2004 Mix Voted Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 13% 17.08 71% 27% 2% 12.13 4.61 0.34
Kerry 37% 48.61 89% 9% 2% 43.26 4.37 0.97
Bush 46% 60.43 17% 82% 1% 10.27 49.55 0.60
Other 4% 5.25 66% 24% 10% 3.47 1.26 0.53
Total 100% 131.37 52.62% 45.52% 1.86% 69.13 59.80 2.44
Margin 9.33
Bush and Other voter turnout is impossible.
Calculate a plausible returning voter mix assuming 4.8% mortality and 95% turnout.
1. Returning voters based on 2004 recorded vote
2004 Actual ExitP Voted Died Alive Turnout Voted08 %Voted %Alive
Kerry 48.27% 52.0% 59.03 2.83 56.20 95% 53.39 91.0% 86.5%
Bush 50.73% 47.0 62.04 2.98 59.06 95% 56.11 107.7% 102.3%
Other 1.00% 1.00% 1.22 0.06 1.16 95% 1.11 475.1% 451.3%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 122.30 5.87 116.43 95% 110.61 118.8% 112.8%
Turnout 2004 Mix Voted Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 20.76 71% 27% 2% 14.74 5.61 0.42
95% Kerry 40.6% 53.39 89% 9% 2% 47.52 4.81 1.07
95% Bush 42.7% 56.11 17% 82% 1% 9.54 46.01 0.56
95% Other 0.8% 1.11 66% 24% 10% 0.73 0.27 0.11
Total 100.0% 131.37 55.21% 43.15% 1.64% 72.53 56.69 2.15
Margin 15.84
2. Returning voters based on 2004 unadjusted exit poll
2004 Actual ExitP Voted Died Alive Turnout Voted08 %Voted %Alive
Kerry 48.27% 52.00% 63.60 3.05 60.54 95% 57.52 84.5% 80.3%
Bush 50.73% 47.00% 57.48 2.76 54.72 95% 51.99 116.2% 110.4%
Other 1.00% 1.00% 1.22 0.06 1.16 95% 1.11 475.1% 451.3%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 122.30 5.87 116.43 95% 110.61 118.8% 112.8%
Turnout 2004 Mix Voted Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 20.76 71% 27% 2% 14.74 5.61 0.42
95% Kerry 43.8% 57.52 89% 9% 2% 51.19 5.18 1.15
95% Bush 39.6% 51.99 17% 82% 1% 8.84 42.63 0.52
95% Other 0.8% 1.11 66% 24% 10% 0.73 0.27 0.11
Total 100.0% 131.37 57.47% 40.86% 1.67% 75.50 53.68 2.20
Margin 21.82
Sensitivity of Obama share to Kerry 2004 vote share and Bush voter turnout in 2008
Obama Vote Share
95% Kerry Voter Turnout
Bush Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry
Voter Actual NEP ExitP True Vote
Turnout 48.27% 49.0% 50.0% 51.0% 52.0% 53.1%
85% 57.6% 58.0% 58.6% 59.2% 59.7% 60.4%
90% 56.4% 56.8% 57.4% 58.0% 58.6% 59.3%
95% 55.21% 55.7% 56.3% 56.9% 57.47% 58.2%
100% 54.0% 54.5% 55.1% 55.7% 56.3% 57.1%
105% 52.78% 53.3% 53.9% 54.6% 55.22% 56.0%
110% 51.6% 52.1% 52.7% 53.4% 54.1% 54.9%
115% 50.4% 50.9% 51.6% 52.3% 53.0% 53.8%
Obama Margin
85% 22.3 23.4 24.8 26.3 27.8 29.5
90% 19.1 20.2 21.7 23.3 24.8 26.6
95% 15.8 17.0 18.6 20.2 21.8 23.7
100% 12.6 13.8 15.5 17.2 18.8 20.7
105% 9.4 10.7 12.4 14.1 15.9 17.8
110% 6.2 7.5 9.3 11.1 12.9 14.9
115% 3.0 4.3 6.2 8.0 9.9 12.0
Sensitivity of Obama share to Kerry and Bush voter turnout in 2008
1. Returning voters based on recorded 2004 vote
Even with 85% Kerry and 95% Bush voter turnout, Obama has 54.4%.
Obama Vote Share
Bush voter
Turnout Kerry Voter Turnout
85% 90% 95% 100%
85% 56.9% 57.3% 57.6% 58.0%
90% 55.7% 56.0% 56.4% 56.8%
95% 54.4% 54.8% 55.21% 55.6%
100% 53.2% 53.6% 54.0% 54.4%
105% 52.0% 52.4% 52.8% 53.2%
110% 50.8% 51.2% 51.6% 52.0%
115% 49.6% 50.0% 50.4% 50.7%
Obama Margin
85% 20.25 21.27 22.28 23.29
90% 17.04 18.05 19.06 20.07
95% 13.82 14.83 15.84 16.85
100% 10.60 11.61 12.62 13.63
105% 7.38 8.39 9.40 10.41
110% 4.16 5.17 6.18 7.19
115% 0.94 1.95 2.96 3.98
2. Returning voters based on 2004 unadjusted exit poll
Even with 85% Kerry and 95% Bush voter turnout, Obama had 56.6%.
Bush voter
Turnout Kerry Voter Turnout
85% 90% 95% 100%
85% 58.9% 59.3% 59.7% 60.1%
90% 57.8% 58.2% 58.6% 59.0%
95% 56.6% 57.1% 57.47% 57.9%
100% 55.5% 55.9% 56.3% 56.8%
105% 54.4% 54.8% 55.2% 55.6%
110% 53.3% 53.7% 54.1% 54.5%
115% 52.1% 52.6% 53.0% 53.4%
Obama Margin
85% 25.61 26.70 27.79 28.88
90% 22.62 23.71 24.80 25.89
95% 19.64 20.73 21.82 22.91
100% 16.66 17.75 18.84 19.93
105% 13.68 14.77 15.86 16.95
110% 10.70 11.79 12.87 13.96
115% 7.71 8.80 9.89 10.98
_______________________________________________________________________
2004 National Exit Poll
Bush 2000 voter turnout in 2004 is impossible.
Calculate a returning 2000 voter mix assuming 4.8% mortality and 95% turnout of 2000 voters.
Scenario 1: Returning voters based on 2000 Recorded Vote
1. Final 2004 National Exit Poll Vote Shares
2000 Actual ExitP Votes Died Alive Turnout Voted04
Gore 48.38% 49.40% 51.00 2.45 48.56 95% 46.13
Bush 47.86% 46.90% 50.46 2.42 48.03 95% 45.63
Other 3.76% 3.70% 3.96 0.22 3.74 95% 3.56
Total 100.0% 100.0% 105.42 5.06 100.33 95% 95.32
Turnout 2004 Mix Votes Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
New 22.1% 26.98 54% 45% 1% 14.57 12.14 0.27
95% Gore 37.7% 46.13 90% 10% 0% 41.52 4.61 0.00
95% Bush 37.3% 45.63 9% 91% 0% 4.11 41.53 0.00
95% Other 2.9% 3.56 71% 21% 8% 2.52 0.75 0.28
Total 100.0% 122.30 51.28% 48.26% 0.45% 62.72 59.03 0.55
Margin 3.69
2. 12:22am National Exit Poll Vote Shares
Turnout 2004 Mix Votes Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
New 22.1% 26.98 57% 41% 2% 15.38 11.06 0.54
95% Gore 37.7% 46.13 91% 8% 1% 41.98 3.69 0.46
95% Bush 37.3% 45.63 10% 90% 0% 4.56 41.07 0.00
95% Other 2.9% 3.56 64% 17% 19% 2.28 0.60 0.68
Total 100.0% 122.30 52.49% 46.14% 1.37% 64.20 56.43 1.68
Margin 7.77
Sensitivity of Kerry Vote Share to Gore and Bush voter turnout in 2004
Even if 100% of Bush 2000 voters turned out and only 85% of Gore voters, Kerry had 50.2%
Bush Kerry Vote Share
2000 Gore Voter Turnout
Turnout 85% 90% 95% 100%
in 2004
85% 53.0% 53.7% 54.3% 55.0%
90% 52.1% 52.7% 53.4% 54.1%
95% 51.1% 51.8% 52.49% 53.2%
100% 50.2% 50.9% 51.6% 52.2%
105% 49.3% 50.0% 50.6% 51.3%
110% 48.4% 49.0% 49.7% 50.4%
115% 47.4% 48.1% 48.8% 49.5%
Kerry Margin
85% 9.13 10.75 12.38 14.01
90% 6.82 8.45 10.07 11.70
95% 4.52 6.14 7.77 9.40
100% 2.21 3.84 5.46 7.09
105% -0.10 1.53 3.16 4.78
110% -2.40 -0.77 0.85 2.48
115% -4.71 -3.08 -1.45 0.17
Scenario 2: Returning 2000 voters based on 2000 Unadjusted Exit Poll
2000 Actual ExitP Votes Died Alive Turnout Voted04
Gore 48.38% 49.40% 52.08 2.50 49.58 95% 47.10
Bush 47.86% 46.90% 49.44 2.37 47.07 95% 44.72
Other 3.76% 3.70% 3.90 0.22 3.68 95% 3.50
Total 100.0% 100.0% 105.42 5.06 100.33 95% 95.31
1. Final National Exit Poll Vote Shares
Turnout 2004 Mix Votes Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
New 22.1% 26.99 54% 45% 1% 14.57 12.14 0.27
95% Gore 38.5% 47.10 90% 10% 0% 42.39 4.71 0.00
95% Bush 36.6% 44.72 9% 91% 0% 4.02 40.69 0.00
95% Other 2.9% 3.50 71% 21% 8% 2.48 0.73 0.28
Total 100.0% 122.30 51.90% 47.65% 0.45% 63.47 58.28 0.55
Margin 5.19
2. 12:22am National Exit Poll Vote Shares
Turnout 2004 Mix Votes Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
New 22.1% 26.99 57% 41% 2% 15.38 11.06 0.54
95% Gore 38.5% 47.10 91% 8% 1% 42.86 3.77 0.47
95% Bush 36.6% 44.72 10% 90% 0% 4.47 40.24 0.00
95% Other 2.9% 3.50 64% 17% 19% 2.24 0.59 0.66
Total 100.0% 122.30 53.11% 45.52% 1.37% 64.95 55.67 1.68
Margin 9.28
Sensitivity of Kerry Vote Share to Gore and Bush voter turnout in 2004
Even if 100% of Bush 2000 voters turned out and only 85% of Gore voters, Kerry had 50.8%
Bush Kerry Vote Share
2000 Gore Voter Turnout
Turnout
in 2004 85% 90% 95% 100%
85% 53.5% 54.2% 54.9% 55.6%
90% 52.6% 53.3% 54.0% 54.7%
95% 51.7% 52.4% 53.11% 53.8%
100% 50.8% 51.5% 52.2% 52.9%
105% 49.9% 50.6% 51.3% 52.0%
110% 49.0% 49.7% 50.4% 51.1%
115% 48.1% 48.8% 49.5% 50.2%
Kerry Margin
85% 10.48 12.14 13.80 15.46
90% 8.22 9.88 11.54 13.20
95% 5.96 7.62 9.28 10.94
100% 3.70 5.36 7.02 8.68
105% 1.44 3.10 4.76 6.42
110% -0.82 0.84 2.50 4.17
115% -3.08 -1.42 0.25 1.91