TruthIsAll
02-02-2009, 06:24 PM
The 2006 Midterms
TruthIsAll
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2006Midterms.htm
Just before the 2006 midterms, I worked with Michael Collins (autorank) and
Alistair Thompson of SCOOP on a series of three articles to quantify the risk
of fraud in the 2006 Midterms.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x2600324
The analysis forecast that the Democrats would gain control of the House and
Senate. It also indicated the House seats and Senate races where fraud was most
likely to occur. Subsequently, documented evidence of voting anomalies confirmed
that the landslide was denied and millions of votes were either uncounted or switched.
http://www.electiondefensealliance.org/landslide_denied_exit_polls_vs_vote_count_2006
The election fraud model projected that the Democrats would win at least 240
House seats, but lose 10-15 to fraud. It correctly forecast that they would
gain control of the Senate by winning six GOP-held seats, although they barely
won Virginia and Montana. The Democratic Tsunami overcame the fraud in the House
and Senate.
There is no longer any doubt that the poll/vote discrepancies were caused by
uncounted and switched votes. Evidence of fraud was once again found in the
Final National Exit Poll which matched to the recorded vote count with the use
of fallacious weightings. The 2006 Final “How Voted in 2004” weights were
manipulated just like they were in the 2004 Final “How Voted in 2000”.
In 2006, the weights were transformed from 47 Bush/ 45 Kerry at 7pm to
49Bush/ 43 Kerry at 1pm the next day! This replicated the 41 Bush/39 Gore to
impossible 43 Bush/ 37 Gore weight changes in 2004. The net effect of the
change was to cut the Democratic margin in half -from 55-43% to 52-46%!
Applying realistic weights to the 7pm NEP (using the 12:22am 2004 NEP) the
Democratic margin becomes 56.7-42.1%, exactly matching the 120- Generic poll
trend projection! Was it a coincidence or confirmation? You decide.
http://www.pollingreport.com/2006.htm
This is the best evidence that once again the Final Exit Poll was forced to match
a fraudulent miscount. Simple logic dictates that if just one demographic
requires impossible or implausible weights and/or vote shares in order to match
the vote count, then all other demographics must be bogus as well.
Matching to the vote is nothing new; exit pollsters have been doing it long
before Bush arrived on the scene and stolen elections became the norm. In the
pre-BushCo world, matching the Final NEP to an essentially fraud-free recorded
vote made sense - until BushCo came along and stole the 2000 election, along
with repeat performances in 2002 and 2004. The 2006 Democratic Tsunami
overwhelmed the fraud but the Dems still "lost" 10-15 House seats they should
have won.
Mark Lindeman, a poster on the Democratic Underground, has tried to debunk the
work of election analysts who have argued that pre-election and unadjusted
exit poll discrepancies are indicators of fraud. Referring to the final
Pew 2006 Generic poll (47 Dem / 43% Rep), Mark said on the Democratic Underground:
“personally, I think Pew was probably not far off”. That was a very interesting
observation, considering that the Democrats won all 120 pre-election polls and he
chose Pew, despite the fact that the margin was 10% below the average regression
trend line.
The Generic poll model projected a 56-42% Democratic landslide with a vote share
which steadily increased over the 14 month period from Sept. 2005 to Election Day.
The GOP trend line was flat. The 120-poll linear time series regression graph
shows that the trend line closely matched both the 7:0pm National Exit poll and
the Wikipedia vote count.
The Final 2006 National Exit poll was matched to the recorded, fraudulent vote
count, with more than the usual percentage of uncounted votes and switched votes.
Literally thousands of reported machine “glitches” were documented nationwide;
18,000 missing votes in FL-13 caused the Democrat to lose. Virtually all
documented vote switches were Democratic to Republican. As Casey Stengel used
to say: you can look it up.
Generic Pre-election Poll Trend vs. the 7:07pm and Final National Exit Poll
To derive an approximation to the TRUE vote for all demographics, the 7pm NEP
vote shares and weights were adjusted to match the 57.8-40.2% Wikipedia
Democratic vote margin. The base case assumptions were that 4.0% of Democratic
votes and 1.4% of Republican/other votes were uncounted and 7% of Democratic
votes were switched to the Republicans.
The TRUE 16% Democratic margin was based on the 120-Generic poll linear trend
which was confirmed in the Wikipedia early vote count. It has always been the
case that millions of ballots, mostly Democratic, are never counted. In this
election, uncounted ballots accounted for less than half of the total discrepancy.
The major fraud factor was vote-switching at the polling place and/or the
central tabulator. The analysis does not include the millions of
disenfranchised voters (mostly Democratic) who never got to the polls. The
Generic LV pre-election polls, as one-sided as they were, low-balled the
intended Democratic vote.
In both the 7:07pm and Final 1:00pm Exit Polls, the results were adjusted to
obtain an estimated TRUE vote. For each demographic, switched vote rates
were applied to final vote shares to determine pre-switch shares. Uncounted
votes were subtracted from the 7:07pm exit poll result. Unlike the Final, the
7:07pm poll was NOT matched to the vote count. Uncounted and switched vote
shares were added back to the Final since it was contaminated in matching to
the vote count.
The True Vote is given by:
TV = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched
National Exit Poll
Source..... Dem Rep Other
CNN-7pm 55.2% 43.4% 1.5%
CNN-Final 52.2% 45.9% 2.5%
NYT 53.1% 44.9% 2.0%
Reported National Vote
Wikipedia 57.7% 41.8% 0.5%
CBS- Nat 52.7% 45.1% 2.2%
CBS-State 51.3% 46.4% 2.3%
120 Generic Poll Linear Regression Trend
Dem = 46.98 + .0419x
Rep = 38.06 + .0047x
Substituting x = 120 and allocating 60% of the undecided vote (UVA) to the Democrats:
........ Trend + UVA = Projection
Dem = 52.01 + 4.42 = 56.43%
Rep = 38.62 + 2.95 = 41.57%
Wikipedia Summary of the November 7, 2006
United States House of Representatives election results
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_elections%2C_2006
Party Seats Popular Vote
2004 2006 Chg
Dem 202 233 +31 39,267,916 57.7% +11.1%
Rep 232 202 -30 28,464,092 41.8% –7.4%
Ind 1 0 -1 69,707 0.1% +0.5%
Other 0 0 0 255,876 0.4% –3.2%
Total 435 435 0 68,057,591 100%
Democratic Projection Probabilities
Proj Freq Prob
54.0 120 100.0
54.5 119 99.2
55.0 116 96.7
55.5 105 87.5
56.0 92 76.7
56.5 76 63.3
57.0 47 39.2
57.5 31 25.8
58.0 20 16.7
58.5 5 4.2
59.0 1 0.8
Note: 76.7% probability that the vote share would exceed 56%
National Exit Poll Timeline vs. the True Vote (Generic Poll Trend)
VOTED 2004
--------- 7:07pm ----------- --------- 1pm Final --------- ----- True Generic Vote -----
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Kerry 45% 93% 6% 1% 43% 92% 7% 1% 49% 93% 6% 1%
Bush 47% 17% 82% 1% 49% 15% 83% 2% 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 4% 67% 23% 10% 4% 66% 23% 11% 1% 67% 23% 10%
DNV 4% 67% 30% 3% 4% 66% 32% 2% 4% 67% 30% 3%
TOTAL 100% 55.2% 43.4% 1.4% 100% 52.2% 45.9% 1.9% 100% 56.7% 42.1% 1.2%
Democratic Vote Share Sensitivity to NEP “How Voted in 2004” Weights
National Exit Poll (7pm)
Weight: DNV 4%; Other 4%
7pm
Kerry 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51%
Bush 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44% 43% 42% 41%
Dem 53.7% 54.4% 55.2% 56.0% 56.7% 57.5% 58.2% 59.0% 59.8%
Final National Exit Poll (1pm)
Weight: DNV 4%; Other 4%
1pm
Kerry 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51%
Bush 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44% 43% 42% 41%
Dem 52.2% 53.0% 53.7% 54.5% 55.3% 56.0% 56.8% 57.6% 58.4%
True Vote
Weight: DNV 4%; Other 1%
True
Kerry 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51%
Bush 52% 51% 50% 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44%
Dem 52.2% 52.9% 53.7% 54.5% 55.2% 56.0% 56.7% 57.5% 58.3%
__________________________________________________________________________________
2006 Uncounted and Switched Votes
The goal of this model was to determine the percentage of votes which needed to
be switched from the Democrats to the Republicans in order to match the Nov. 9
CBS News reported 52.7% Democratic vote. The Democratic 120 Generic poll
trend forecast 56.4%; the initial Wikipedia vote count was 57.7D-41.8R. The
model assumes that the Wikipedia numbers represented the TRUE national vote.
The analysis does not include the millions of disenfranchised voters (mostly
Democratic) who never got to the polls. The Generic LV pre-election polls,
as one-sided as they were, low-balled the intended Democratic vote.
Based on historical statistics, approximately 3% of total votes cast are
never counted. Approximately 75% of them are Democratic. The racial mix was used
to approximate the number of uncounted votes in each state, assuming that 8%
of non-whites and 2% of white votes were uncounted. The base case analysis
assumes that 7% of the recorded votes were switched. To match the Wikipedia
vote share, we assume that 3.16% of total votes cast were uncounted. Almost one
in 12 Democratic votes must have been switched to the Republicans.
To derive an approximation to the TRUE vote in each demographic category, the
7pm NEP vote shares and weights were adjusted to match the Wikipedia vote. The
base case assumptions were that 4.0% of Democratic votes and 1.4% of Republican
and thirsparty votes were uncounted and 7% of Democratic votes were switched to
the Republicans.
The 16% Democratic margin was based on the 120-Generic poll linear trend which
was confirmed in the Wikipedia early vote count. It has always been the case
that millions of ballots, mostly Democratic, are never counted. In this
election, uncounted ballots accounted for less than half of the total
discrepancy. The major fraud factor was vote-switching at the polling place
and/or the central tabulator.
Assuming a 7.0% switch-vote rate, the Democratic TRUE vote was 56.94%, a close
match to the Generic 120-Poll trend line projection. At an 8.5% switch rate
the TRUE vote was 57.7%, matching the Wikipedia recorded vote share.
Model Assumptions
Switched: 7.00% Dem to Rep
Uncounted: 3.16% of total votes cast
Uncounted Vote Shares
Race Share Reported Pct Unctd Total Pct Unctd
White 2.0% 62542 81.7% 1276 63819 80.7% 1.61%
Other 8.0% 14043 18.3% 1221 15264 19.3% 1.54%
Total 3.16% 76585 100% 2497 79082 100% 3.16%
Base Case Summary Switched TRUE Vote
Dem 75% 40331 52.66% 1873 42204 53.37% 2.45% 2823 45027 56.94%
Rep 23% 34564 45.13% 574 35138 44.43% 0.75% -2823 32315 40.86%
Other 2% 1690 2.21% 50 1740 2.20% 2.87% 0 1740 2.20%
Total 3.16% 76585 100.0% 2497 79082 100.0% 3.16% 0 79082 100.0%
Probability of Vote Discrepancy
MoE 1.50%
Prob = NORMDIST (0.5266, 0.5694, 0.015/1.96, TRUE)
1 in 86,082,782
Sensitivity Analysis of Democratic TRUE Vote to Switched-vote rate
Switch Dem% Probability: 1 in
5.0% 56.17% 444,121
6.0% 56.43% 2,308,702 (matches 120 Generic poll trend)
6.5% 56.68% 13,359,311
7.0% 56.94% 86,082,782 (base case)
7.5% 57.19% 617,885,835
8.0% 57.45% 4,941,793,389
8.5% 57.70% 43,247,703,725 (matches Wikipedia vote count)
Generic Poll Projection Trend vs. Final 10 Poll Average
This is an update to the Generic poll model using two projection methods:
1) Allocating undecided voters (UVA) to the final 120-poll linear trend.
2) Allocating the UVA to the average of the final 10 Generic polls.
The 120-poll trend and 10-poll projections matched to within .05%.
The reported Democratic vote share was
1) 51.3% based on CBS state totals (11/09).
2) 52.7% based on CBS national totals.
3) 57.7% based on Wikipedia national totals.
4) 52.6% based on the CNN Final National Exit Poll (11/08).
Key model results:
Assuming the Democrats captured 60% of the undecided vote,
1-the 120-Generic poll trend line projected a 56.43% share
2-the Final 10 Generic poll average projected a 56.38% share
The probability is near ZERO that the vote/poll discrepancies were due to chance.
120 Generic Poll Linear Regression Trend:
Dem = 46.98 + .0419x
GOP = 38.06 + .0047x
Substituting x=120 and allocating 60% (UVA) to the Democrats:
........Trend + UVA = Projection
Dem = 52.01 + 4.42 = 56.43%
Rep = 38.62 + 2.95 = 41.57%
________________________________________________
Projected Democratic Vote Share based on the Final 10-poll Average
Assumption: 60% of the undecided vote (UVA) allocated to Democrats
.............. Dem GOP Margin
Avg Date 52.0 38.7 13.3
Harris 1023 47 33 14
AP 1030 56 37 19
CBS 1101 52 33 19
Nwk 1103 54 38 16
TIME 1103 55 40 15
Pew* 1104 47 43 4
ABC* 1104 51 45 6
USA* 1106 51 44 7
CNN 1106 58 38 20
FOX 1106 49 36 13
Average 52.0% 38.7% 13.3%
UVA 4.4% 2.9% 0.9%
Projection 56.4% 41.6% 14.8%
CBS State Vote 51.3% 46.4% 4.9%
Discrepancy -5.1% 4.8% -9.9%
3(*) outliers
Average 49.67 44.00 5.67
2-party 53.02 46.98
7 polls
Average 53.00 36.43 16.57
2-party 59.27 40.73
10 Polls
Average 52.00 38.70 13.30
2-party 57.33 42.67
_________________________________________________________________
Sensitivity Analysis I
Probability of discrepancy between the aggregate CBS-reported state vote and
the 10-poll projection for various margin of error (MoE) and undecided
voter allocation (UVA) assumptions.
10 Polls 52.00%
60% UVA 4.38%
Projected 56.38%
UVA 50% 56.1% 60% 65% 70% 75%
Proj. 55.7% 56.1% 56.4% 56.8% 57.2% 57.5% Democratic projection
Margin 13.3% 14.2% 14.8% 15.5% 16.2% 17.0%
Deviation 4.4% 4.8% 5.1% 5.5% 5.8% 6.2%
MoE Probability of Vote Discrepancy
1 in
1.25% 219b 36t 1286t nc nc nc
1.50% 151m 5.4b 62b 1.8t 63t 3002t
1.75% 1.8m 25m 157m 1.9b 26b 428b
2.00% 99k 766k 3m 21m 161m 1.4b
2.25% 13k 68k 207k 950k 4.8m 27m
2.50% 3k 12k 29k 102k 381k 1.5m
2.75% 1k 3.2k 6.8k 19k 58k 186k
3.00% 446 1.2k 2.2k 5.3k 14k 37k
_________________________________________________________________
Sensitivity Analysis II
Probability of discrepancy between 120 Generic Poll forecast and the Final NEP for various MoE assumptions
Democratic vote share:
Exit poll: 52.70%
Generics: 56.43%
Deviation: 3.73%
MoE Probability: 1 in
1.00% 7,474,854,153,312
1.25% 402,249,154
1.50% 1,825,026
1.75% 67,847
2.00% 7,787
2.25% 1,728
2.50% 579
2.75% 255
3.00% 135
_________________________________________________________________
Sensitivity Analysis III
Probability of discrepancy between the Wikipedia vote count and the National Exit
Poll for various MoE assumptions
Democratic share:
Exit poll: 52.7%
Wikipedia: 57.7%
Deviation: 5.0%
MoE Probability: 1 in
1.00% nc
1.25% 450,359,962,737,050
1.50% 30,938,221,975
1.75% 93,056,001
2.00% 2,083,900
2.25% 150,566
2.50% 22,577
2.75% 5,467
3.00% 1,838
__________________________________________________________________________________
5-poll Moving Avg Projection
Poll Survey Dates DEM GOP Other Diff DemMA GOPMA Dem GOP Diff DiffMA
Number Average All 49.5 38.3 12.1 11.2 49.5 38.3 56.8 43.2 13.6 13.6
2005
1 Newsweek RV 905 50 38 12 12 50.0 38.0 57.2 42.8 14.4 14.4
2 Pew RV 911 52 40 8 12 51.0 39.0 57.0 43.0 14.0 14.2
3 DemCorp LV 921 48 39 13 9 50.0 39.0 56.6 43.4 13.2 13.9
4 Newsweek RV 930 47 42 11 5 49.3 39.8 55.9 44.2 11.7 13.3
5 DemCorp LV 1010 46 41 14 5 48.6 40.0 55.4 44.6 10.9 12.8
6 GWU LV 1012 47 41 13 6 48.0 40.6 54.8 45.2 9.7 11.9
7 Hotline RV 1016 40 31 29 9 45.6 38.8 55.0 45.0 9.9 11.1
8 DemCorp LV 1023 48 39 12 9 45.6 38.8 55.0 45.0 9.9 10.4
9 Gallup RV 1023 50 43 7 7 46.2 39.0 55.1 44.9 10.2 10.1
10 ABC/WP RV 1102 52 37 12 15 47.4 38.2 56.0 44.0 12.1 10.4
11 DemCorp LV 1106 48 40 12 8 47.6 38.0 56.2 43.8 12.5 10.9
12 Newsweek RV 1105 53 36 11 17 50.2 39.0 56.7 43.3 13.4 11.6
13 Hotline RV 1115 41 35 24 6 48.8 38.2 56.6 43.4 13.2 12.3
14 DemCorp LV 1120 48 41 11 7 48.4 37.8 56.7 43.3 13.4 12.9
15 Time RV 1201 48 36 15 12 47.6 37.6 56.5 43.5 13.0 13.1
16 DemCorp LV 1204 49 39 12 10 47.8 37.4 56.7 43.3 13.4 13.2
17 CBS/NYT RV 1206 42 33 25 9 45.6 36.8 56.2 43.8 12.3 13.0
18 DemCorp LV 1212 49 41 9 8 47.2 38.0 56.1 43.9 12.2 12.8
19 Hotline RV 1213 43 33 25 10 46.2 36.4 56.6 43.4 13.3 12.8
20 NPR LV 1218 45 37 17 8 45.6 36.6 56.3 43.7 12.6 12.7
21 ABC/WP RV 1218 51 41 9 10 46.0 37.0 56.2 43.8 12.4 12.5
2006
22 Gallup RV 108 49 43 8 6 47.4 39.0 55.6 44.4 11.1 12.3
23 CBS/NYT RV 125 43 34 23 9 46.2 37.6 55.9 44.1 11.8 12.2
24 Dem Corp LV 125 49 41 10 8 47.4 39.2 55.4 44.6 10.9 11.8
25 ABC/WP RV 126 54 38 9 16 49.2 39.4 56.0 44.0 12.1 11.7
26 Pew RV 205 50 41 9 9 49.0 39.4 56.0 44.0 11.9 11.6
27 Gallup RV 212 50 43 8 7 49.2 39.4 56.0 44.0 12.1 11.8
28 GWU LV 215 46 41 14 5 49.8 40.8 55.4 44.6 10.9 11.6
29 Hotline RV 219 46 31 23 15 49.2 38.8 56.4 43.6 12.8 12.0
30 DemCorp LV 227 48 40 12 8 48.0 39.2 55.7 44.3 11.4 11.8
31 Gallup RV 301 53 39 7 14 48.6 38.8 56.2 43.8 12.3 11.9
32 FOX LV 301 48 34 18 14 48.2 37.0 57.1 42.9 14.2 12.3
33 Gallup RV 312 55 39 7 16 50.0 36.6 58.0 42.0 16.1 13.3
34 NPR LV 314 52 37 11 15 51.2 37.8 57.8 42.2 15.6 13.9
35 Newsweek RV 317 50 39 11 11 51.6 37.6 58.1 41.9 16.2 14.9
36 Time RV 323 50 41 9 9 51.0 38.0 57.6 42.4 15.2 15.4
37 CBS RV 409 44 34 22 10 50.2 38.0 57.3 42.7 14.6 15.5
38 ABC/WP RV 409 55 40 5 15 50.2 38.2 57.2 42.8 14.3 15.2
39 Gallup RV 409 52 42 6 10 50.2 39.2 56.6 43.4 13.1 14.7
40 Pew RV 416 51 41 8 10 50.4 39.6 56.4 43.6 12.8 14.0
41 CNN RV 423 50 40 9 10 50.4 39.4 56.5 43.5 13.0 13.6
42 Cook 430 44 32 24 12 50.4 39.0 56.8 43.2 13.5 13.4
43 Gallup RV 430 54 39 7 15 50.2 38.8 56.8 43.2 13.6 13.2
44 FOX LV 503 41 38 21 3 48.0 38.0 56.4 43.6 12.8 13.2
45 CNN RV 507 52 38 10 14 48.2 37.4 56.8 43.2 13.7 13.3
46 CBS/NYT RV 508 44 33 23 11 47.0 36.0 57.2 42.8 14.4 13.6
47 Newsweek RV 512 50 39 11 11 48.2 37.4 56.8 43.2 13.7 13.6
48 ABC/WP RV 515 52 40 9 12 47.8 37.6 56.6 43.4 13.1 13.5
49 Fabrizio LV 517 39 36 25 3 47.4 37.2 56.6 43.4 13.3 13.6
50 Hotline RV 521 42 36 22 6 45.4 36.8 56.1 43.9 12.2 13.3
51 Gallup RV 604 51 42 7 9 46.8 38.6 55.6 44.4 11.1 12.7
52 Gallup RV 611 51 39 10 12 47.0 38.6 55.6 44.4 11.3 12.2
53 FOX LV 614 46 33 20 13 45.8 37.2 56.0 44.0 12.0 12.0
54 CNN RV 615 45 38 16 7 47.0 37.6 56.2 43.8 12.5 11.8
55 Pew RV 619 51 39 10 12 48.8 38.2 56.6 43.4 13.2 12.0
56 Hotline RV 625 41 36 24 5 46.8 37.0 56.5 43.5 13.0 12.4
57 ABC/WP RV 625 52 39 9 13 47.0 37.0 56.6 43.4 13.2 12.8
58 Gallup RV 625 54 38 7 16 48.6 38.0 56.6 43.4 13.3 13.0
59 TIME LV 629 47 35 18 12 49.0 37.4 57.2 42.8 14.3 13.4
60 Gallup RV 709 51 41 9 10 49.0 37.8 56.9 43.1 13.8 13.5
61 AP-Ipsos RV 712 51 40 9 11 51.0 38.6 57.2 42.8 14.5 13.8
62 FOX LV 712 42 34 25 8 49.0 37.6 57.0 43.0 14.1 14.0
63 Hotline RV 723 48 32 20 16 47.8 36.4 57.3 42.7 14.6 14.3
64 CBS/NYT RV 725 45 35 20 10 47.4 36.4 57.1 42.9 14.2 14.2
65 Gallup RV 770 51 40 8 11 47.4 36.2 57.2 42.8 14.5 14.4
66 CNN RV 803 53 40 7 13 47.8 36.2 57.4 42.6 14.8 14.4
67 ABC/WP RV 806 52 39 8 13 49.8 37.2 57.6 42.4 15.2 14.7
68 AP-Ipsos RV 809 55 37 8 18 51.2 38.2 57.6 42.4 15.1 14.8
69 FOX LV 809 48 30 22 18 51.8 37.2 58.4 41.6 16.8 15.3
70 Gallup RV 810 50 41 9 9 51.6 37.4 58.2 41.8 16.4 15.7
71 Newsweek RV 811 51 39 10 12 51.2 37.2 58.2 41.8 16.3 16.0
72 Pew RV 813 50 41 9 9 50.8 37.6 57.8 42.2 15.5 16.0
73 Hotline RV 820 40 33 27 7 47.8 36.8 57.0 43.0 14.1 15.8
74 Gallup RV 820 47 45 7 2 47.6 39.8 55.2 44.8 10.3 14.5
75 CNN RV 820 52 43 6 9 48.0 40.2 55.1 44.9 10.2 13.3
76 CBS/NYT RV 821 47 32 21 15 47.2 38.8 55.6 44.4 11.2 12.3
77 TIME LV 824 51 40 9 11 47.4 38.6 55.8 44.2 11.6 11.5
78 Newsweek RV 825 50 38 12 12 49.4 39.6 56.0 44.0 12.0 11.1
79 FOX LV 830 48 32 21 16 49.6 37.0 57.6 42.4 15.3 12.0
80 CNN LV 902 53 43 4 10 49.8 37.0 57.7 42.3 15.4 13.1
81 ABC RV 907 50 42 9 8 50.4 39.0 56.8 43.2 13.5 13.6
82 Pew RV 910 50 39 11 11 50.2 38.8 56.8 43.2 13.6 14.0
83 Gallup RV 910 53 41 7 12 50.8 39.4 56.7 43.3 13.4 14.2
84 FOX LV 913 41 38 21 3 49.4 40.6 55.4 44.6 10.8 13.3
85 Gallup LV 917 48 48 4 0 48.4 41.6 54.4 45.6 8.8 12.0
86 CBS/NYT RV 919 50 35 15 15 48.4 40.2 55.2 44.8 10.5 11.4
87 CNN LV 924 55 42 3 13 49.4 40.8 55.3 44.7 10.6 10.8
88 FOX LV 927 49 38 14 11 48.6 40.2 55.3 44.7 10.6 10.3
89 Hotline RV 927 43 33 24 10 49.0 39.2 56.1 43.9 12.2 10.5
90 Zogby LV 928 42 33 25 9 47.8 36.2 57.4 42.6 14.8 11.7
91 CNN LV 1002 53 42 5 11 48.4 37.6 56.8 43.2 13.6 12.4
92 AP-Ipsos RV 1004 51 38 11 13 47.6 36.8 57.0 43.0 13.9 13.0
93 Pew RV 1004 51 41 8 10 48.0 37.4 56.8 43.2 13.5 13.6
94 TIME LV 1005 54 39 7 15 50.2 38.6 56.9 43.1 13.8 13.9
95 Newsweek RV 1006 51 39 7 12 52.0 39.8 56.9 43.1 13.8 13.7
96 ABC RV 1008 54 41 5 13 52.2 39.6 57.1 42.9 14.2 13.9
97 CNN LV 1008 58 37 5 21 53.6 39.4 57.8 42.2 15.6 14.2
98 Gallup LV 1008 59 36 4 23 55.2 38.4 59.0 41.0 18.1 15.1
99 Harris LV 1009 49 36 15 13 54.2 37.8 59.0 41.0 18.0 16.0
100 FOX LV 1011 50 41 9 9 54.0 38.2 58.7 41.3 17.4 16.7
101 CNN LV 1015 56 40 4 16 54.4 38.0 59.0 41.0 17.9 17.4
102 NBC RV 1016 52 37 11 15 53.2 38.0 58.5 41.5 17.0 17.7
103 Newsweek LV 1021 55 37 8 18 52.4 38.2 58.0 42.0 16.1 17.3
104 Gallup LV 1023 54 41 5 13 53.4 39.2 57.8 42.2 15.7 16.8
105 ABC RV 1023 54 41 5 13 54.2 39.2 58.2 41.8 16.3 16.6
106 CNN LV 1022 57 40 3 17 54.4 39.2 58.2 41.8 16.5 16.3
107 Hotline RV 1023 52 34 13 18 54.4 38.6 58.6 41.4 17.2 16.4
108 Zogby LV 1025 44 33 23 11 52.2 37.8 58.2 41.8 16.4 16.4
109 FOX LV 1025 49 38 13 11 51.2 37.2 58.2 41.8 16.3 16.5
110 Newsweek LV 1027 53 39 8 14 51.0 36.8 58.3 41.7 16.6 16.6
111 CNN LV 1029 53 42 5 11 50.2 37.2 57.8 42.2 15.5 16.4
112 NBC LV 1030 52 37 11 15 50.2 37.8 57.4 42.6 14.8 15.9
113 CBS/NYT LV 1101 52 33 15 19 51.8 37.8 58.0 42.0 16.1 15.9
114 Newsweek LV 1103 54 38 8 16 52.8 37.8 58.4 41.6 16.9 16.0
115 TIME LV 1103 55 40 5 15 53.2 38.0 58.5 41.5 17.0 16.0
116 Pew LV 1104 47 43 10 4 52.0 38.2 57.9 42.1 15.8 16.1
117 ABC LV 1104 51 45 4 6 51.8 39.8 56.8 43.2 13.7 15.9
118 USA/Gallup LV 1106 51 44 4 7 51.6 42.0 55.4 44.6 10.9 14.8
119 CNN LV 1106 58 38 4 20 52.4 42.0 55.8 44.2 11.5 13.8
120 FOX LV 1106 49 36 15 13 51.2 41.2 55.8 44.2 11.5 12.7
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
NEP Demographic Timeline Summary
CNN.com - Elections 2006
10,207 Respondents 13,251 Respondents
7:07pm 11/07 1:00pm 11/08 Generic Pre-election Trend
Categ Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other Margin Dem Rep Other Margin
Vote04 55.20% 43.36% 1.44% 52.19% 45.88% 1.93% 6.31% 57.50% 41.33% 1.17% 16.17%
Gender 55.04% 43.47% 1.49% 52.55% 44.96% 2.49% 7.59% 58.04% 40.47% 1.49% 17.57%
Rac/Gen 54.81% 43.71% 1.48% 52.62% 45.51% 1.88% 7.11% 57.77% 40.23% 0.00% 17.54%
Race 55.10% 43.11% 1.79% 53.34% 44.85% 1.81% 8.49% 57.88% 41.31% 1.81% 16.57%
Age 54.89% 43.44% 1.67% 52.44% 44.92% 1.64% 7.52% 57.89% 40.44% 1.67% 17.45%
Income 55.07% 43.27% 1.66% 53.28% 44.89% 1.83% 8.39% 57.92% 40.42% 1.66% 17.50%
Educ 55.05% 43.39% 1.56% 52.95% 45.47% 1.58% 7.48% 57.86% 40.58% 1.56% 17.28%
Decided 57.16% 41.48% 1.35% 54.25% 44.24% 1.51% 10.01% 58.19% 40.45% 1.35% 17.74%
Party 54.50% 43.72% 1.78% 53.04% 45.56% 1.40% 7.48% 57.80% 40.45% 1.75% 17.35%
Ideology 54.42% 43.58% 2.00% 52.53% 45.47% 2.00% 7.05% 57.34% 40.66% 2.00% 16.68%
Region 55.04% 43.54% 1.42% 52.74% 45.32% 1.94% 7.42% 57.94% 40.34% 1.94% 17.60%
Religion 54.22% 43.90% 1.88% 52.64% 45.30% 2.06% 7.34% 57.50% 40.62% 1.88% 16.88%
Area 54.84% 43.40% 1.76% 52.79% 45.21% 2.00% 7.58% 57.84% 40.40% 1.76% 17.44%
Senate 55.83% 42.60% 1.57% 55.11% 43.89% 1.00% 11.23% 57.75% 40.83% 1.42% 16.92%
Mean 55.08% 43.28% 1.63% 53.03% 45.10% 1.79% 7.93% 57.80% 40.61% 1.53% 17.19%
StDev 0.69% 0.58% 0.18% 0.76% 0.52% 0.34% 1.23% 0.22% 0.32% 0.48% 0.45%
HOW VOTED IN 2004
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX** Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other
Kerry 45% 93% 6% 1% 43% 92% 7% 1% 50% 93% 6% 1%
Bush 47% 17% 82% 1% 49% 15% 83% 2% 45% 17% 82% 1%
Other 4% 67% 23% 10% 4% 66% 23% 11% 1% 67% 23% 10%
DNV 4% 67% 30% 3% 4% 66% 32% 2% 4% 67% 30% 3%
TOTAL 100% 55.20% 43.36% 1.44% 100% 52.19% 45.88% 1.93% 100% 57.50% 41.33% 1.17%
GENDER
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other
Male 49% 53% 45% 2% 49% 50% 47% 3% 48% 55% 43% 2%
Female 51% 57% 42% 1% 51% 55% 43% 2% 52% 59% 40% 1%
TOTAL 100% 55.04% 43.47% 1.49% 100% 52.55% 44.96% 2.49% 100% 57.08% 41.44% 1.48%
RACE/GENDER
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
WM 39% 47% 51% 2% 39% 44% 53% 3% 39% 50% 48% 2%
WF 40% 51% 48% 1% 40% 49% 50% 1% 40% 53% 45% 2%
NWM 9% 76% 22% 2% 9% 75% 23% 2% 9% 78% 20% 2%
NWF 11% 79% 20% 1% 11% 78% 21% 1% 11% 84% 14% 2%
TOTAL 99% 54.26% 43.27% 1.47% 99% 52.09% 45.05% 1.86% 99% 56.96% 40.06% 1.98%
WHEN DECIDED
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX*** Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Today 9% 60% 37% 3% 10% 61% 36% 3% 9% 62% 35% 3%
3Days 9% 57% 41% 2% 9% 51% 47% 2% 9% 58% 40% 2%
Week 8% 53% 45% 2% 9% 52% 47% 1% 8% 54% 44% 2%
Month 21% 58% 41% 1% 21% 54% 44% 2% 21% 58% 41% 1%
Before 52% 57% 42% 1% 50% 54% 45% 1% 52% 57% 42% 1%
TOTAL 99% 56.59% 41.07% 1.34% 99% 53.71% 43.80% 1.49% 99% 56.94% 40.72% 1.34%
RACE
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX** Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
White 80% 49% 49% 2% 79% 47% 51% 2% 80% 50% 48% 2%
Black 10% 88% 12% 0% 10% 89% 10% 1% 10% 90% 10% 0%
Latino 8% 72% 26% 2% 8% 69% 30% 1% 8% 74% 24% 2%
Asian 2% 65% 35% 0% 2% 62% 37% 1% 2% 71% 29% 0%
Other 1% 59% 36% 5% 2% 55% 42% 3% 1% 62% 33% 5%
TOTAL 101% 55.65% 43.54% 1.81% 101% 53.89% 45.27% 1.84% 101% 56.96% 42.23% 1.81%
AGE
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX**** Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
18-29 11% 60% 38% 2% 12% 60% 38% 2% 11% 62% 36% 2%
30-44 23% 55% 43% 2% 24% 53% 45% 2% 23% 57% 41% 2%
45-59 33% 55% 44% 1% 34% 53% 46% 1% 33% 58% 41% 1%
60+ 33% 53% 45% 2% 29% 50% 48% 2% 33% 54% 44% 2%
TOTAL 100% 54.89% 43.44% 1.67% 99% 52.44% 44.92% 1.64% 100% 56.89% 41.44% 1.67%
INCOME
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
< 15 7% 67% 30% 3% 7% 67% 30% 3% 7% 69% 28% 3%
15-30 12% 63% 35% 2% 12% 61% 36% 3% 12% 65% 33% 2%
30-50 21% 58% 41% 1% 21% 56% 43% 1% 21% 61% 38% 1%
50-75 22% 52% 46% 2% 22% 50% 48% 2% 22% 54% 44% 2%
75-100 15% 53% 46% 1% 15% 52% 47% 1% 15% 54% 45% 1%
100-150 13% 50% 48% 2% 13% 47% 51% 2% 13% 51% 47% 2%
150-200 5% 47% 51% 2% 5% 47% 51% 2% 5% 49% 49% 2%
200+ 5% 48% 51% 1% 5% 45% 53% 2% 5% 49% 50% 1%
TOTAL 100% 55.07% 43.27% 1.66% 100% 53.28% 44.89% 1.83% 100% 56.95% 41.39% 1.66%
REGION
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
NE 22% 64% 35% 1% 22% 63% 35% 2% 22% 66% 33% 2%
MidW 27% 57% 42% 1% 27% 52% 47% 1% 27% 59% 40% 1%
South 29% 45% 54% 1% 30% 45% 53% 2% 30% 48% 50% 2%
West 21% 57% 40% 3% 21% 54% 43% 3% 21% 58% 39% 3%
TOTAL 99% 54.49% 43.10% 1.41% 100% 52.74% 45.32% 1.94% 100% 57.03% 41.25% 1.94%
EDUCATION
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX*** Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
NoHS 4% 64% 35% 1% 3% 64% 35% 1% 4% 67% 32% 1%
HSG 21% 57% 42% 1% 21% 55% 44% 1% 21% 59% 40% 1%
Col 30% 52% 46% 2% 31% 51% 47% 2% 30% 54% 44% 2%
Grad 26% 52% 46% 2% 27% 49% 49% 2% 26% 54% 44% 2%
PostG 19% 60% 39% 1% 18% 58% 41% 1% 19% 62% 37% 1%
TOTAL 100% 55.05% 43.39% 1.56% 100% 52.95% 45.47% 1.58% 100% 57.09% 41.35% 1.56%
EDUCATION
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX** Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
NoDeg 54% 55% 43% 2% 55% 53% 45% 2% 54% 55% 43% 2%
Grad 46% 55% 43% 2% 45% 53% 46% 1% 46% 59% 39% 2%
TOTAL 100% 55.00% 43.00% 2.00% 100% 53.00% 45.45% 1.55% 100% 56.84% 41.16% 2.00%
PARTYID
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX** Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Dem 39% 93% 6% 1% 38% 93% 7% 0% 40% 94% 5% 1%
Rep 35% 9% 90% 1% 36% 8% 91% 1% 35% 12% 87% 1%
Ind 26% 58% 38% 4% 26% 57% 39% 4% 25% 61% 35% 4%
TOTAL 100% 54.50% 43.72% 1.78% 100% 53.04% 45.56% 1.40% 100% 57.05% 41.20% 1.75%
IDEOLOGY
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Lib 21% 88% 10% 2% 20% 87% 11% 2% 21% 91% 7% 2%
Mod 48% 62% 36% 2% 47% 60% 38% 2% 48% 64% 34% 2%
Con 32% 21% 77% 2% 32% 20% 78% 2% 32% 22% 76% 2%
TOTAL 101% 54.96% 44.02% 2.02% 99% 52.00% 45.02% 1.98% 101% 56.87% 42.11% 2.02%
RELIGION
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Prot 55% 46% 52% 2% 55% 44% 54% 2% 55% 49% 49% 2%
Cath 26% 56% 43% 1% 26% 55% 44% 1% 26% 58% 41% 1%
Jewish 2% 87% 10% 3% 2% 87% 12% 1% 2% 87% 10% 3%
Other 6% 71% 25% 4% 6% 71% 25% 4% 6% 75% 21% 4%
None 11% 76% 22% 2% 11% 74% 22% 4% 11% 80% 18% 2%
TOTAL 100% 54.22% 43.90% 1.88% 100% 52.64% 45.30% 2.06% 100% 57.07% 41.05% 1.88%
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
U.S. House Vote: CBS News 11/09
Reported Uncounted Switch TRUE
Total Dem GOP Other Margin Total% Dem Rep Other Dem Dem Rep Other Margin
76585 52.66% 45.13% 2.21% 7.53% 3.16% 1873 574 50 2823 56.94% 40.86% 2.20% Diff
AL 579 38.7% 60.8% 0.5% -22.1% 3.7% 16 5 0.4 16 42.6% 56.8% 0.6% 7.1%
AK 202 40.1% 56.9% 3.0% -16.8% 3.7% 6 2 0.2 6 44.0% 53.0% 2.9% 7.2%
AZ 1127 42.5% 51.1% 6.4% -8.6% 2.7% 23 8 0.6 34 46.2% 47.5% 6.3% 7.1%
AR 747 60.0% 40.0% 0.0% 19.9% 3.1% 18 6 0.5 31 64.5% 35.5% 0.1% 9.7%
CA 6236 56.9% 39.8% 3.3% 17.2% 3.4% 158 53 4.2 248 61.3% 35.4% 3.3% 9.3%
CO 1371 53.1% 41.7% 5.2% 11.4% 2.6% 27 9 0.7 51 57.2% 37.7% 5.1% 8.5%
CT 1079 60.4% 39.0% 0.6% 21.4% 2.9% 23 8 0.6 46 64.9% 34.5% 0.6% 9.6%
DE 509 38.7% 57.2% 4.1% -18.5% 3.5% 13 4 0.4 14 42.5% 53.4% 4.1% 6.9%
FL 3727 40.2% 58.0% 1.8% -17.8% 3.1% 88 29 2.3 105 43.9% 54.2% 1.8% 7.0%
GA 1916 41.7% 58.3% 0.0% -16.6% 4.0% 58 19 1.5 56 45.8% 54.2% 0.1% 7.5%
HI 338 65.1% 34.9% 0.0% 30.2% 6.4% 16 5 0.4 15 69.9% 30.0% 0.1% 11.6%
ID 435 39.8% 55.9% 4.4% -16.1% 2.3% 8 3 0.2 12 43.3% 52.4% 4.3% 6.6%
IL 3127 55.4% 44.2% 0.4% 11.2% 3.2% 75 25 2.0 121 59.7% 39.8% 0.5% 9.1%
IN 1646 48.8% 49.9% 1.3% -1.1% 2.7% 33 11 0.9 56 52.8% 45.9% 1.4% 7.9%
IA 1028 47.7% 50.6% 1.8% -2.9% 2.3% 18 6 0.5 34 51.5% 46.7% 1.8% 7.6%
KS 827 43.7% 54.4% 1.9% -10.8% 2.7% 16 5 0.4 25 47.4% 50.6% 1.9% 7.2%
KY 1244 47.9% 49.0% 3.1% -1.0% 2.6% 24 8 0.6 42 51.8% 45.1% 3.1% 7.8%
LA 901 32.6% 64.4% 3.0% -31.7% 4.2% 28 9 0.7 21 36.5% 60.6% 3.0% 6.4%
ME 529 65.2% 30.4% 4.3% 34.8% 2.2% 9 3 0.2 24 69.9% 25.8% 4.3% 10.0%
MD 1344 61.6% 35.3% 3.1% 26.3% 4.1% 41 14 1.1 58 66.2% 30.8% 3.0% 10.2%
MA 1068 74.3% 18.5% 7.2% 55.7% 2.8% 22 7 0.6 56 79.3% 13.6% 7.1% 11.5%
MI 3516 51.0% 46.2% 2.8% 4.7% 3.1% 83 28 2.2 126 55.2% 42.1% 2.7% 8.4%
MN 2178 53.0% 42.5% 4.5% 10.5% 2.6% 42 14 1.1 81 57.1% 38.4% 4.5% 8.5%
MS 581 43.2% 50.8% 6.0% -7.6% 4.3% 19 6 0.5 18 47.4% 46.8% 5.9% 7.9%
MO 2050 47.1% 50.3% 2.6% -3.2% 2.9% 45 15 1.2 68 51.0% 46.4% 2.6% 7.8%
MT 805 39.0% 59.1% 1.9% -20.1% 2.5% 15 5 0.4 22 42.5% 55.6% 1.9% 6.6%
NE 586 43.9% 56.1% 0.0% -12.3% 2.5% 11 4 0.3 18 47.6% 52.4% 0.0% 7.2%
NV 573 50.1% 45.2% 4.7% 4.9% 3.0% 13 4 0.3 20 54.2% 41.2% 4.6% 8.3%
NH 402 52.0% 47.0% 1.0% 5.0% 2.2% 7 2 0.2 15 56.0% 43.0% 1.0% 8.2%
NJ 1859 51.0% 47.6% 1.3% 3.4% 3.4% 47 16 1.3 66 55.3% 43.4% 1.4% 8.5%
NM 545 55.8% 44.2% 0.0% 11.6% 2.9% 12 4 0.3 21 60.1% 39.9% 0.1% 9.0%
NY 3561 64.2% 35.6% 0.2% 28.6% 3.6% 95 32 2.5 160 68.8% 30.9% 0.3% 10.4%
NC 1842 50.8% 49.2% 0.0% 1.5% 3.6% 49 16 1.3 65 55.0% 44.9% 0.1% 8.6%
ND 433 65.6% 34.4% 0.0% 31.2% 2.5% 8 3 0.2 20 70.3% 29.7% 0.0% 10.2%
OH 3763 52.4% 47.4% 0.2% 4.9% 2.9% 82 27 2.2 138 56.5% 43.2% 0.3% 8.5%
OK 905 41.2% 57.2% 1.5% -16.0% 3.3% 22 7 0.6 26 45.0% 53.4% 1.6% 7.2%
OR 1264 56.4% 41.4% 2.2% 15.0% 2.5% 24 8 0.6 50 60.7% 37.1% 2.2% 8.9%
PA 3815 54.0% 44.7% 1.3% 9.3% 2.8% 81 27 2.2 144 58.2% 40.4% 1.3% 8.7%
RI 372 71.0% 11.3% 17.7% 59.7% 2.7% 7 2 0.2 18 75.9% 6.8% 17.3% 11.0%
SC 1072 43.5% 55.3% 1.2% -11.8% 3.9% 32 11 0.8 33 47.6% 51.2% 1.2% 7.7%
SD 667 69.1% 29.4% 1.5% 39.7% 2.7% 13 4 0.4 32 73.9% 24.5% 1.5% 10.7%
TN 1712 50.2% 46.6% 3.2% 3.7% 3.1% 40 13 1.1 60 54.4% 42.5% 3.2% 8.3%
TX 3994 44.6% 51.8% 3.6% -7.2% 3.0% 90 30 2.4 125 48.5% 48.0% 3.5% 7.5%
UT 549 42.6% 51.5% 5.8% -8.9% 2.4% 10 3 0.3 16 46.3% 48.0% 5.7% 7.0%
VT 524 53.2% 44.7% 2.1% 8.6% 2.2% 9 3 0.2 20 57.3% 40.6% 2.1% 8.4%
VA 2148 37.7% 56.8% 5.5% -19.1% 3.6% 57 19 1.5 57 41.5% 53.1% 5.4% 6.8%
WA 1309 61.3% 38.1% 0.5% 23.2% 2.9% 28 9 0.8 56 65.9% 33.6% 0.6% 9.7%
WV 446 57.8% 42.2% 0.0% 15.7% 2.3% 8 3 0.2 18 62.2% 37.8% 0.0% 9.0%
WI 1852 54.0% 45.1% 0.8% 8.9% 2.6% 36 12 1.0 70 58.2% 40.9% 0.8% 8.6%
WY 377 48.8% 49.3% 1.9% -0.5% 2.3% 7 2 0.2 13 52.7% 45.4% 1.9% 7.8%
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
TruthIsAll
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2006Midterms.htm
Just before the 2006 midterms, I worked with Michael Collins (autorank) and
Alistair Thompson of SCOOP on a series of three articles to quantify the risk
of fraud in the 2006 Midterms.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x2600324
The analysis forecast that the Democrats would gain control of the House and
Senate. It also indicated the House seats and Senate races where fraud was most
likely to occur. Subsequently, documented evidence of voting anomalies confirmed
that the landslide was denied and millions of votes were either uncounted or switched.
http://www.electiondefensealliance.org/landslide_denied_exit_polls_vs_vote_count_2006
The election fraud model projected that the Democrats would win at least 240
House seats, but lose 10-15 to fraud. It correctly forecast that they would
gain control of the Senate by winning six GOP-held seats, although they barely
won Virginia and Montana. The Democratic Tsunami overcame the fraud in the House
and Senate.
There is no longer any doubt that the poll/vote discrepancies were caused by
uncounted and switched votes. Evidence of fraud was once again found in the
Final National Exit Poll which matched to the recorded vote count with the use
of fallacious weightings. The 2006 Final “How Voted in 2004” weights were
manipulated just like they were in the 2004 Final “How Voted in 2000”.
In 2006, the weights were transformed from 47 Bush/ 45 Kerry at 7pm to
49Bush/ 43 Kerry at 1pm the next day! This replicated the 41 Bush/39 Gore to
impossible 43 Bush/ 37 Gore weight changes in 2004. The net effect of the
change was to cut the Democratic margin in half -from 55-43% to 52-46%!
Applying realistic weights to the 7pm NEP (using the 12:22am 2004 NEP) the
Democratic margin becomes 56.7-42.1%, exactly matching the 120- Generic poll
trend projection! Was it a coincidence or confirmation? You decide.
http://www.pollingreport.com/2006.htm
This is the best evidence that once again the Final Exit Poll was forced to match
a fraudulent miscount. Simple logic dictates that if just one demographic
requires impossible or implausible weights and/or vote shares in order to match
the vote count, then all other demographics must be bogus as well.
Matching to the vote is nothing new; exit pollsters have been doing it long
before Bush arrived on the scene and stolen elections became the norm. In the
pre-BushCo world, matching the Final NEP to an essentially fraud-free recorded
vote made sense - until BushCo came along and stole the 2000 election, along
with repeat performances in 2002 and 2004. The 2006 Democratic Tsunami
overwhelmed the fraud but the Dems still "lost" 10-15 House seats they should
have won.
Mark Lindeman, a poster on the Democratic Underground, has tried to debunk the
work of election analysts who have argued that pre-election and unadjusted
exit poll discrepancies are indicators of fraud. Referring to the final
Pew 2006 Generic poll (47 Dem / 43% Rep), Mark said on the Democratic Underground:
“personally, I think Pew was probably not far off”. That was a very interesting
observation, considering that the Democrats won all 120 pre-election polls and he
chose Pew, despite the fact that the margin was 10% below the average regression
trend line.
The Generic poll model projected a 56-42% Democratic landslide with a vote share
which steadily increased over the 14 month period from Sept. 2005 to Election Day.
The GOP trend line was flat. The 120-poll linear time series regression graph
shows that the trend line closely matched both the 7:0pm National Exit poll and
the Wikipedia vote count.
The Final 2006 National Exit poll was matched to the recorded, fraudulent vote
count, with more than the usual percentage of uncounted votes and switched votes.
Literally thousands of reported machine “glitches” were documented nationwide;
18,000 missing votes in FL-13 caused the Democrat to lose. Virtually all
documented vote switches were Democratic to Republican. As Casey Stengel used
to say: you can look it up.
Generic Pre-election Poll Trend vs. the 7:07pm and Final National Exit Poll
To derive an approximation to the TRUE vote for all demographics, the 7pm NEP
vote shares and weights were adjusted to match the 57.8-40.2% Wikipedia
Democratic vote margin. The base case assumptions were that 4.0% of Democratic
votes and 1.4% of Republican/other votes were uncounted and 7% of Democratic
votes were switched to the Republicans.
The TRUE 16% Democratic margin was based on the 120-Generic poll linear trend
which was confirmed in the Wikipedia early vote count. It has always been the
case that millions of ballots, mostly Democratic, are never counted. In this
election, uncounted ballots accounted for less than half of the total discrepancy.
The major fraud factor was vote-switching at the polling place and/or the
central tabulator. The analysis does not include the millions of
disenfranchised voters (mostly Democratic) who never got to the polls. The
Generic LV pre-election polls, as one-sided as they were, low-balled the
intended Democratic vote.
In both the 7:07pm and Final 1:00pm Exit Polls, the results were adjusted to
obtain an estimated TRUE vote. For each demographic, switched vote rates
were applied to final vote shares to determine pre-switch shares. Uncounted
votes were subtracted from the 7:07pm exit poll result. Unlike the Final, the
7:07pm poll was NOT matched to the vote count. Uncounted and switched vote
shares were added back to the Final since it was contaminated in matching to
the vote count.
The True Vote is given by:
TV = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched
National Exit Poll
Source..... Dem Rep Other
CNN-7pm 55.2% 43.4% 1.5%
CNN-Final 52.2% 45.9% 2.5%
NYT 53.1% 44.9% 2.0%
Reported National Vote
Wikipedia 57.7% 41.8% 0.5%
CBS- Nat 52.7% 45.1% 2.2%
CBS-State 51.3% 46.4% 2.3%
120 Generic Poll Linear Regression Trend
Dem = 46.98 + .0419x
Rep = 38.06 + .0047x
Substituting x = 120 and allocating 60% of the undecided vote (UVA) to the Democrats:
........ Trend + UVA = Projection
Dem = 52.01 + 4.42 = 56.43%
Rep = 38.62 + 2.95 = 41.57%
Wikipedia Summary of the November 7, 2006
United States House of Representatives election results
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_elections%2C_2006
Party Seats Popular Vote
2004 2006 Chg
Dem 202 233 +31 39,267,916 57.7% +11.1%
Rep 232 202 -30 28,464,092 41.8% –7.4%
Ind 1 0 -1 69,707 0.1% +0.5%
Other 0 0 0 255,876 0.4% –3.2%
Total 435 435 0 68,057,591 100%
Democratic Projection Probabilities
Proj Freq Prob
54.0 120 100.0
54.5 119 99.2
55.0 116 96.7
55.5 105 87.5
56.0 92 76.7
56.5 76 63.3
57.0 47 39.2
57.5 31 25.8
58.0 20 16.7
58.5 5 4.2
59.0 1 0.8
Note: 76.7% probability that the vote share would exceed 56%
National Exit Poll Timeline vs. the True Vote (Generic Poll Trend)
VOTED 2004
--------- 7:07pm ----------- --------- 1pm Final --------- ----- True Generic Vote -----
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Kerry 45% 93% 6% 1% 43% 92% 7% 1% 49% 93% 6% 1%
Bush 47% 17% 82% 1% 49% 15% 83% 2% 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 4% 67% 23% 10% 4% 66% 23% 11% 1% 67% 23% 10%
DNV 4% 67% 30% 3% 4% 66% 32% 2% 4% 67% 30% 3%
TOTAL 100% 55.2% 43.4% 1.4% 100% 52.2% 45.9% 1.9% 100% 56.7% 42.1% 1.2%
Democratic Vote Share Sensitivity to NEP “How Voted in 2004” Weights
National Exit Poll (7pm)
Weight: DNV 4%; Other 4%
7pm
Kerry 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51%
Bush 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44% 43% 42% 41%
Dem 53.7% 54.4% 55.2% 56.0% 56.7% 57.5% 58.2% 59.0% 59.8%
Final National Exit Poll (1pm)
Weight: DNV 4%; Other 4%
1pm
Kerry 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51%
Bush 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44% 43% 42% 41%
Dem 52.2% 53.0% 53.7% 54.5% 55.3% 56.0% 56.8% 57.6% 58.4%
True Vote
Weight: DNV 4%; Other 1%
True
Kerry 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51%
Bush 52% 51% 50% 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44%
Dem 52.2% 52.9% 53.7% 54.5% 55.2% 56.0% 56.7% 57.5% 58.3%
__________________________________________________________________________________
2006 Uncounted and Switched Votes
The goal of this model was to determine the percentage of votes which needed to
be switched from the Democrats to the Republicans in order to match the Nov. 9
CBS News reported 52.7% Democratic vote. The Democratic 120 Generic poll
trend forecast 56.4%; the initial Wikipedia vote count was 57.7D-41.8R. The
model assumes that the Wikipedia numbers represented the TRUE national vote.
The analysis does not include the millions of disenfranchised voters (mostly
Democratic) who never got to the polls. The Generic LV pre-election polls,
as one-sided as they were, low-balled the intended Democratic vote.
Based on historical statistics, approximately 3% of total votes cast are
never counted. Approximately 75% of them are Democratic. The racial mix was used
to approximate the number of uncounted votes in each state, assuming that 8%
of non-whites and 2% of white votes were uncounted. The base case analysis
assumes that 7% of the recorded votes were switched. To match the Wikipedia
vote share, we assume that 3.16% of total votes cast were uncounted. Almost one
in 12 Democratic votes must have been switched to the Republicans.
To derive an approximation to the TRUE vote in each demographic category, the
7pm NEP vote shares and weights were adjusted to match the Wikipedia vote. The
base case assumptions were that 4.0% of Democratic votes and 1.4% of Republican
and thirsparty votes were uncounted and 7% of Democratic votes were switched to
the Republicans.
The 16% Democratic margin was based on the 120-Generic poll linear trend which
was confirmed in the Wikipedia early vote count. It has always been the case
that millions of ballots, mostly Democratic, are never counted. In this
election, uncounted ballots accounted for less than half of the total
discrepancy. The major fraud factor was vote-switching at the polling place
and/or the central tabulator.
Assuming a 7.0% switch-vote rate, the Democratic TRUE vote was 56.94%, a close
match to the Generic 120-Poll trend line projection. At an 8.5% switch rate
the TRUE vote was 57.7%, matching the Wikipedia recorded vote share.
Model Assumptions
Switched: 7.00% Dem to Rep
Uncounted: 3.16% of total votes cast
Uncounted Vote Shares
Race Share Reported Pct Unctd Total Pct Unctd
White 2.0% 62542 81.7% 1276 63819 80.7% 1.61%
Other 8.0% 14043 18.3% 1221 15264 19.3% 1.54%
Total 3.16% 76585 100% 2497 79082 100% 3.16%
Base Case Summary Switched TRUE Vote
Dem 75% 40331 52.66% 1873 42204 53.37% 2.45% 2823 45027 56.94%
Rep 23% 34564 45.13% 574 35138 44.43% 0.75% -2823 32315 40.86%
Other 2% 1690 2.21% 50 1740 2.20% 2.87% 0 1740 2.20%
Total 3.16% 76585 100.0% 2497 79082 100.0% 3.16% 0 79082 100.0%
Probability of Vote Discrepancy
MoE 1.50%
Prob = NORMDIST (0.5266, 0.5694, 0.015/1.96, TRUE)
1 in 86,082,782
Sensitivity Analysis of Democratic TRUE Vote to Switched-vote rate
Switch Dem% Probability: 1 in
5.0% 56.17% 444,121
6.0% 56.43% 2,308,702 (matches 120 Generic poll trend)
6.5% 56.68% 13,359,311
7.0% 56.94% 86,082,782 (base case)
7.5% 57.19% 617,885,835
8.0% 57.45% 4,941,793,389
8.5% 57.70% 43,247,703,725 (matches Wikipedia vote count)
Generic Poll Projection Trend vs. Final 10 Poll Average
This is an update to the Generic poll model using two projection methods:
1) Allocating undecided voters (UVA) to the final 120-poll linear trend.
2) Allocating the UVA to the average of the final 10 Generic polls.
The 120-poll trend and 10-poll projections matched to within .05%.
The reported Democratic vote share was
1) 51.3% based on CBS state totals (11/09).
2) 52.7% based on CBS national totals.
3) 57.7% based on Wikipedia national totals.
4) 52.6% based on the CNN Final National Exit Poll (11/08).
Key model results:
Assuming the Democrats captured 60% of the undecided vote,
1-the 120-Generic poll trend line projected a 56.43% share
2-the Final 10 Generic poll average projected a 56.38% share
The probability is near ZERO that the vote/poll discrepancies were due to chance.
120 Generic Poll Linear Regression Trend:
Dem = 46.98 + .0419x
GOP = 38.06 + .0047x
Substituting x=120 and allocating 60% (UVA) to the Democrats:
........Trend + UVA = Projection
Dem = 52.01 + 4.42 = 56.43%
Rep = 38.62 + 2.95 = 41.57%
________________________________________________
Projected Democratic Vote Share based on the Final 10-poll Average
Assumption: 60% of the undecided vote (UVA) allocated to Democrats
.............. Dem GOP Margin
Avg Date 52.0 38.7 13.3
Harris 1023 47 33 14
AP 1030 56 37 19
CBS 1101 52 33 19
Nwk 1103 54 38 16
TIME 1103 55 40 15
Pew* 1104 47 43 4
ABC* 1104 51 45 6
USA* 1106 51 44 7
CNN 1106 58 38 20
FOX 1106 49 36 13
Average 52.0% 38.7% 13.3%
UVA 4.4% 2.9% 0.9%
Projection 56.4% 41.6% 14.8%
CBS State Vote 51.3% 46.4% 4.9%
Discrepancy -5.1% 4.8% -9.9%
3(*) outliers
Average 49.67 44.00 5.67
2-party 53.02 46.98
7 polls
Average 53.00 36.43 16.57
2-party 59.27 40.73
10 Polls
Average 52.00 38.70 13.30
2-party 57.33 42.67
_________________________________________________________________
Sensitivity Analysis I
Probability of discrepancy between the aggregate CBS-reported state vote and
the 10-poll projection for various margin of error (MoE) and undecided
voter allocation (UVA) assumptions.
10 Polls 52.00%
60% UVA 4.38%
Projected 56.38%
UVA 50% 56.1% 60% 65% 70% 75%
Proj. 55.7% 56.1% 56.4% 56.8% 57.2% 57.5% Democratic projection
Margin 13.3% 14.2% 14.8% 15.5% 16.2% 17.0%
Deviation 4.4% 4.8% 5.1% 5.5% 5.8% 6.2%
MoE Probability of Vote Discrepancy
1 in
1.25% 219b 36t 1286t nc nc nc
1.50% 151m 5.4b 62b 1.8t 63t 3002t
1.75% 1.8m 25m 157m 1.9b 26b 428b
2.00% 99k 766k 3m 21m 161m 1.4b
2.25% 13k 68k 207k 950k 4.8m 27m
2.50% 3k 12k 29k 102k 381k 1.5m
2.75% 1k 3.2k 6.8k 19k 58k 186k
3.00% 446 1.2k 2.2k 5.3k 14k 37k
_________________________________________________________________
Sensitivity Analysis II
Probability of discrepancy between 120 Generic Poll forecast and the Final NEP for various MoE assumptions
Democratic vote share:
Exit poll: 52.70%
Generics: 56.43%
Deviation: 3.73%
MoE Probability: 1 in
1.00% 7,474,854,153,312
1.25% 402,249,154
1.50% 1,825,026
1.75% 67,847
2.00% 7,787
2.25% 1,728
2.50% 579
2.75% 255
3.00% 135
_________________________________________________________________
Sensitivity Analysis III
Probability of discrepancy between the Wikipedia vote count and the National Exit
Poll for various MoE assumptions
Democratic share:
Exit poll: 52.7%
Wikipedia: 57.7%
Deviation: 5.0%
MoE Probability: 1 in
1.00% nc
1.25% 450,359,962,737,050
1.50% 30,938,221,975
1.75% 93,056,001
2.00% 2,083,900
2.25% 150,566
2.50% 22,577
2.75% 5,467
3.00% 1,838
__________________________________________________________________________________
5-poll Moving Avg Projection
Poll Survey Dates DEM GOP Other Diff DemMA GOPMA Dem GOP Diff DiffMA
Number Average All 49.5 38.3 12.1 11.2 49.5 38.3 56.8 43.2 13.6 13.6
2005
1 Newsweek RV 905 50 38 12 12 50.0 38.0 57.2 42.8 14.4 14.4
2 Pew RV 911 52 40 8 12 51.0 39.0 57.0 43.0 14.0 14.2
3 DemCorp LV 921 48 39 13 9 50.0 39.0 56.6 43.4 13.2 13.9
4 Newsweek RV 930 47 42 11 5 49.3 39.8 55.9 44.2 11.7 13.3
5 DemCorp LV 1010 46 41 14 5 48.6 40.0 55.4 44.6 10.9 12.8
6 GWU LV 1012 47 41 13 6 48.0 40.6 54.8 45.2 9.7 11.9
7 Hotline RV 1016 40 31 29 9 45.6 38.8 55.0 45.0 9.9 11.1
8 DemCorp LV 1023 48 39 12 9 45.6 38.8 55.0 45.0 9.9 10.4
9 Gallup RV 1023 50 43 7 7 46.2 39.0 55.1 44.9 10.2 10.1
10 ABC/WP RV 1102 52 37 12 15 47.4 38.2 56.0 44.0 12.1 10.4
11 DemCorp LV 1106 48 40 12 8 47.6 38.0 56.2 43.8 12.5 10.9
12 Newsweek RV 1105 53 36 11 17 50.2 39.0 56.7 43.3 13.4 11.6
13 Hotline RV 1115 41 35 24 6 48.8 38.2 56.6 43.4 13.2 12.3
14 DemCorp LV 1120 48 41 11 7 48.4 37.8 56.7 43.3 13.4 12.9
15 Time RV 1201 48 36 15 12 47.6 37.6 56.5 43.5 13.0 13.1
16 DemCorp LV 1204 49 39 12 10 47.8 37.4 56.7 43.3 13.4 13.2
17 CBS/NYT RV 1206 42 33 25 9 45.6 36.8 56.2 43.8 12.3 13.0
18 DemCorp LV 1212 49 41 9 8 47.2 38.0 56.1 43.9 12.2 12.8
19 Hotline RV 1213 43 33 25 10 46.2 36.4 56.6 43.4 13.3 12.8
20 NPR LV 1218 45 37 17 8 45.6 36.6 56.3 43.7 12.6 12.7
21 ABC/WP RV 1218 51 41 9 10 46.0 37.0 56.2 43.8 12.4 12.5
2006
22 Gallup RV 108 49 43 8 6 47.4 39.0 55.6 44.4 11.1 12.3
23 CBS/NYT RV 125 43 34 23 9 46.2 37.6 55.9 44.1 11.8 12.2
24 Dem Corp LV 125 49 41 10 8 47.4 39.2 55.4 44.6 10.9 11.8
25 ABC/WP RV 126 54 38 9 16 49.2 39.4 56.0 44.0 12.1 11.7
26 Pew RV 205 50 41 9 9 49.0 39.4 56.0 44.0 11.9 11.6
27 Gallup RV 212 50 43 8 7 49.2 39.4 56.0 44.0 12.1 11.8
28 GWU LV 215 46 41 14 5 49.8 40.8 55.4 44.6 10.9 11.6
29 Hotline RV 219 46 31 23 15 49.2 38.8 56.4 43.6 12.8 12.0
30 DemCorp LV 227 48 40 12 8 48.0 39.2 55.7 44.3 11.4 11.8
31 Gallup RV 301 53 39 7 14 48.6 38.8 56.2 43.8 12.3 11.9
32 FOX LV 301 48 34 18 14 48.2 37.0 57.1 42.9 14.2 12.3
33 Gallup RV 312 55 39 7 16 50.0 36.6 58.0 42.0 16.1 13.3
34 NPR LV 314 52 37 11 15 51.2 37.8 57.8 42.2 15.6 13.9
35 Newsweek RV 317 50 39 11 11 51.6 37.6 58.1 41.9 16.2 14.9
36 Time RV 323 50 41 9 9 51.0 38.0 57.6 42.4 15.2 15.4
37 CBS RV 409 44 34 22 10 50.2 38.0 57.3 42.7 14.6 15.5
38 ABC/WP RV 409 55 40 5 15 50.2 38.2 57.2 42.8 14.3 15.2
39 Gallup RV 409 52 42 6 10 50.2 39.2 56.6 43.4 13.1 14.7
40 Pew RV 416 51 41 8 10 50.4 39.6 56.4 43.6 12.8 14.0
41 CNN RV 423 50 40 9 10 50.4 39.4 56.5 43.5 13.0 13.6
42 Cook 430 44 32 24 12 50.4 39.0 56.8 43.2 13.5 13.4
43 Gallup RV 430 54 39 7 15 50.2 38.8 56.8 43.2 13.6 13.2
44 FOX LV 503 41 38 21 3 48.0 38.0 56.4 43.6 12.8 13.2
45 CNN RV 507 52 38 10 14 48.2 37.4 56.8 43.2 13.7 13.3
46 CBS/NYT RV 508 44 33 23 11 47.0 36.0 57.2 42.8 14.4 13.6
47 Newsweek RV 512 50 39 11 11 48.2 37.4 56.8 43.2 13.7 13.6
48 ABC/WP RV 515 52 40 9 12 47.8 37.6 56.6 43.4 13.1 13.5
49 Fabrizio LV 517 39 36 25 3 47.4 37.2 56.6 43.4 13.3 13.6
50 Hotline RV 521 42 36 22 6 45.4 36.8 56.1 43.9 12.2 13.3
51 Gallup RV 604 51 42 7 9 46.8 38.6 55.6 44.4 11.1 12.7
52 Gallup RV 611 51 39 10 12 47.0 38.6 55.6 44.4 11.3 12.2
53 FOX LV 614 46 33 20 13 45.8 37.2 56.0 44.0 12.0 12.0
54 CNN RV 615 45 38 16 7 47.0 37.6 56.2 43.8 12.5 11.8
55 Pew RV 619 51 39 10 12 48.8 38.2 56.6 43.4 13.2 12.0
56 Hotline RV 625 41 36 24 5 46.8 37.0 56.5 43.5 13.0 12.4
57 ABC/WP RV 625 52 39 9 13 47.0 37.0 56.6 43.4 13.2 12.8
58 Gallup RV 625 54 38 7 16 48.6 38.0 56.6 43.4 13.3 13.0
59 TIME LV 629 47 35 18 12 49.0 37.4 57.2 42.8 14.3 13.4
60 Gallup RV 709 51 41 9 10 49.0 37.8 56.9 43.1 13.8 13.5
61 AP-Ipsos RV 712 51 40 9 11 51.0 38.6 57.2 42.8 14.5 13.8
62 FOX LV 712 42 34 25 8 49.0 37.6 57.0 43.0 14.1 14.0
63 Hotline RV 723 48 32 20 16 47.8 36.4 57.3 42.7 14.6 14.3
64 CBS/NYT RV 725 45 35 20 10 47.4 36.4 57.1 42.9 14.2 14.2
65 Gallup RV 770 51 40 8 11 47.4 36.2 57.2 42.8 14.5 14.4
66 CNN RV 803 53 40 7 13 47.8 36.2 57.4 42.6 14.8 14.4
67 ABC/WP RV 806 52 39 8 13 49.8 37.2 57.6 42.4 15.2 14.7
68 AP-Ipsos RV 809 55 37 8 18 51.2 38.2 57.6 42.4 15.1 14.8
69 FOX LV 809 48 30 22 18 51.8 37.2 58.4 41.6 16.8 15.3
70 Gallup RV 810 50 41 9 9 51.6 37.4 58.2 41.8 16.4 15.7
71 Newsweek RV 811 51 39 10 12 51.2 37.2 58.2 41.8 16.3 16.0
72 Pew RV 813 50 41 9 9 50.8 37.6 57.8 42.2 15.5 16.0
73 Hotline RV 820 40 33 27 7 47.8 36.8 57.0 43.0 14.1 15.8
74 Gallup RV 820 47 45 7 2 47.6 39.8 55.2 44.8 10.3 14.5
75 CNN RV 820 52 43 6 9 48.0 40.2 55.1 44.9 10.2 13.3
76 CBS/NYT RV 821 47 32 21 15 47.2 38.8 55.6 44.4 11.2 12.3
77 TIME LV 824 51 40 9 11 47.4 38.6 55.8 44.2 11.6 11.5
78 Newsweek RV 825 50 38 12 12 49.4 39.6 56.0 44.0 12.0 11.1
79 FOX LV 830 48 32 21 16 49.6 37.0 57.6 42.4 15.3 12.0
80 CNN LV 902 53 43 4 10 49.8 37.0 57.7 42.3 15.4 13.1
81 ABC RV 907 50 42 9 8 50.4 39.0 56.8 43.2 13.5 13.6
82 Pew RV 910 50 39 11 11 50.2 38.8 56.8 43.2 13.6 14.0
83 Gallup RV 910 53 41 7 12 50.8 39.4 56.7 43.3 13.4 14.2
84 FOX LV 913 41 38 21 3 49.4 40.6 55.4 44.6 10.8 13.3
85 Gallup LV 917 48 48 4 0 48.4 41.6 54.4 45.6 8.8 12.0
86 CBS/NYT RV 919 50 35 15 15 48.4 40.2 55.2 44.8 10.5 11.4
87 CNN LV 924 55 42 3 13 49.4 40.8 55.3 44.7 10.6 10.8
88 FOX LV 927 49 38 14 11 48.6 40.2 55.3 44.7 10.6 10.3
89 Hotline RV 927 43 33 24 10 49.0 39.2 56.1 43.9 12.2 10.5
90 Zogby LV 928 42 33 25 9 47.8 36.2 57.4 42.6 14.8 11.7
91 CNN LV 1002 53 42 5 11 48.4 37.6 56.8 43.2 13.6 12.4
92 AP-Ipsos RV 1004 51 38 11 13 47.6 36.8 57.0 43.0 13.9 13.0
93 Pew RV 1004 51 41 8 10 48.0 37.4 56.8 43.2 13.5 13.6
94 TIME LV 1005 54 39 7 15 50.2 38.6 56.9 43.1 13.8 13.9
95 Newsweek RV 1006 51 39 7 12 52.0 39.8 56.9 43.1 13.8 13.7
96 ABC RV 1008 54 41 5 13 52.2 39.6 57.1 42.9 14.2 13.9
97 CNN LV 1008 58 37 5 21 53.6 39.4 57.8 42.2 15.6 14.2
98 Gallup LV 1008 59 36 4 23 55.2 38.4 59.0 41.0 18.1 15.1
99 Harris LV 1009 49 36 15 13 54.2 37.8 59.0 41.0 18.0 16.0
100 FOX LV 1011 50 41 9 9 54.0 38.2 58.7 41.3 17.4 16.7
101 CNN LV 1015 56 40 4 16 54.4 38.0 59.0 41.0 17.9 17.4
102 NBC RV 1016 52 37 11 15 53.2 38.0 58.5 41.5 17.0 17.7
103 Newsweek LV 1021 55 37 8 18 52.4 38.2 58.0 42.0 16.1 17.3
104 Gallup LV 1023 54 41 5 13 53.4 39.2 57.8 42.2 15.7 16.8
105 ABC RV 1023 54 41 5 13 54.2 39.2 58.2 41.8 16.3 16.6
106 CNN LV 1022 57 40 3 17 54.4 39.2 58.2 41.8 16.5 16.3
107 Hotline RV 1023 52 34 13 18 54.4 38.6 58.6 41.4 17.2 16.4
108 Zogby LV 1025 44 33 23 11 52.2 37.8 58.2 41.8 16.4 16.4
109 FOX LV 1025 49 38 13 11 51.2 37.2 58.2 41.8 16.3 16.5
110 Newsweek LV 1027 53 39 8 14 51.0 36.8 58.3 41.7 16.6 16.6
111 CNN LV 1029 53 42 5 11 50.2 37.2 57.8 42.2 15.5 16.4
112 NBC LV 1030 52 37 11 15 50.2 37.8 57.4 42.6 14.8 15.9
113 CBS/NYT LV 1101 52 33 15 19 51.8 37.8 58.0 42.0 16.1 15.9
114 Newsweek LV 1103 54 38 8 16 52.8 37.8 58.4 41.6 16.9 16.0
115 TIME LV 1103 55 40 5 15 53.2 38.0 58.5 41.5 17.0 16.0
116 Pew LV 1104 47 43 10 4 52.0 38.2 57.9 42.1 15.8 16.1
117 ABC LV 1104 51 45 4 6 51.8 39.8 56.8 43.2 13.7 15.9
118 USA/Gallup LV 1106 51 44 4 7 51.6 42.0 55.4 44.6 10.9 14.8
119 CNN LV 1106 58 38 4 20 52.4 42.0 55.8 44.2 11.5 13.8
120 FOX LV 1106 49 36 15 13 51.2 41.2 55.8 44.2 11.5 12.7
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
NEP Demographic Timeline Summary
CNN.com - Elections 2006
10,207 Respondents 13,251 Respondents
7:07pm 11/07 1:00pm 11/08 Generic Pre-election Trend
Categ Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other Margin Dem Rep Other Margin
Vote04 55.20% 43.36% 1.44% 52.19% 45.88% 1.93% 6.31% 57.50% 41.33% 1.17% 16.17%
Gender 55.04% 43.47% 1.49% 52.55% 44.96% 2.49% 7.59% 58.04% 40.47% 1.49% 17.57%
Rac/Gen 54.81% 43.71% 1.48% 52.62% 45.51% 1.88% 7.11% 57.77% 40.23% 0.00% 17.54%
Race 55.10% 43.11% 1.79% 53.34% 44.85% 1.81% 8.49% 57.88% 41.31% 1.81% 16.57%
Age 54.89% 43.44% 1.67% 52.44% 44.92% 1.64% 7.52% 57.89% 40.44% 1.67% 17.45%
Income 55.07% 43.27% 1.66% 53.28% 44.89% 1.83% 8.39% 57.92% 40.42% 1.66% 17.50%
Educ 55.05% 43.39% 1.56% 52.95% 45.47% 1.58% 7.48% 57.86% 40.58% 1.56% 17.28%
Decided 57.16% 41.48% 1.35% 54.25% 44.24% 1.51% 10.01% 58.19% 40.45% 1.35% 17.74%
Party 54.50% 43.72% 1.78% 53.04% 45.56% 1.40% 7.48% 57.80% 40.45% 1.75% 17.35%
Ideology 54.42% 43.58% 2.00% 52.53% 45.47% 2.00% 7.05% 57.34% 40.66% 2.00% 16.68%
Region 55.04% 43.54% 1.42% 52.74% 45.32% 1.94% 7.42% 57.94% 40.34% 1.94% 17.60%
Religion 54.22% 43.90% 1.88% 52.64% 45.30% 2.06% 7.34% 57.50% 40.62% 1.88% 16.88%
Area 54.84% 43.40% 1.76% 52.79% 45.21% 2.00% 7.58% 57.84% 40.40% 1.76% 17.44%
Senate 55.83% 42.60% 1.57% 55.11% 43.89% 1.00% 11.23% 57.75% 40.83% 1.42% 16.92%
Mean 55.08% 43.28% 1.63% 53.03% 45.10% 1.79% 7.93% 57.80% 40.61% 1.53% 17.19%
StDev 0.69% 0.58% 0.18% 0.76% 0.52% 0.34% 1.23% 0.22% 0.32% 0.48% 0.45%
HOW VOTED IN 2004
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX** Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other
Kerry 45% 93% 6% 1% 43% 92% 7% 1% 50% 93% 6% 1%
Bush 47% 17% 82% 1% 49% 15% 83% 2% 45% 17% 82% 1%
Other 4% 67% 23% 10% 4% 66% 23% 11% 1% 67% 23% 10%
DNV 4% 67% 30% 3% 4% 66% 32% 2% 4% 67% 30% 3%
TOTAL 100% 55.20% 43.36% 1.44% 100% 52.19% 45.88% 1.93% 100% 57.50% 41.33% 1.17%
GENDER
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other
Male 49% 53% 45% 2% 49% 50% 47% 3% 48% 55% 43% 2%
Female 51% 57% 42% 1% 51% 55% 43% 2% 52% 59% 40% 1%
TOTAL 100% 55.04% 43.47% 1.49% 100% 52.55% 44.96% 2.49% 100% 57.08% 41.44% 1.48%
RACE/GENDER
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
WM 39% 47% 51% 2% 39% 44% 53% 3% 39% 50% 48% 2%
WF 40% 51% 48% 1% 40% 49% 50% 1% 40% 53% 45% 2%
NWM 9% 76% 22% 2% 9% 75% 23% 2% 9% 78% 20% 2%
NWF 11% 79% 20% 1% 11% 78% 21% 1% 11% 84% 14% 2%
TOTAL 99% 54.26% 43.27% 1.47% 99% 52.09% 45.05% 1.86% 99% 56.96% 40.06% 1.98%
WHEN DECIDED
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX*** Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Today 9% 60% 37% 3% 10% 61% 36% 3% 9% 62% 35% 3%
3Days 9% 57% 41% 2% 9% 51% 47% 2% 9% 58% 40% 2%
Week 8% 53% 45% 2% 9% 52% 47% 1% 8% 54% 44% 2%
Month 21% 58% 41% 1% 21% 54% 44% 2% 21% 58% 41% 1%
Before 52% 57% 42% 1% 50% 54% 45% 1% 52% 57% 42% 1%
TOTAL 99% 56.59% 41.07% 1.34% 99% 53.71% 43.80% 1.49% 99% 56.94% 40.72% 1.34%
RACE
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX** Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
White 80% 49% 49% 2% 79% 47% 51% 2% 80% 50% 48% 2%
Black 10% 88% 12% 0% 10% 89% 10% 1% 10% 90% 10% 0%
Latino 8% 72% 26% 2% 8% 69% 30% 1% 8% 74% 24% 2%
Asian 2% 65% 35% 0% 2% 62% 37% 1% 2% 71% 29% 0%
Other 1% 59% 36% 5% 2% 55% 42% 3% 1% 62% 33% 5%
TOTAL 101% 55.65% 43.54% 1.81% 101% 53.89% 45.27% 1.84% 101% 56.96% 42.23% 1.81%
AGE
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX**** Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
18-29 11% 60% 38% 2% 12% 60% 38% 2% 11% 62% 36% 2%
30-44 23% 55% 43% 2% 24% 53% 45% 2% 23% 57% 41% 2%
45-59 33% 55% 44% 1% 34% 53% 46% 1% 33% 58% 41% 1%
60+ 33% 53% 45% 2% 29% 50% 48% 2% 33% 54% 44% 2%
TOTAL 100% 54.89% 43.44% 1.67% 99% 52.44% 44.92% 1.64% 100% 56.89% 41.44% 1.67%
INCOME
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
< 15 7% 67% 30% 3% 7% 67% 30% 3% 7% 69% 28% 3%
15-30 12% 63% 35% 2% 12% 61% 36% 3% 12% 65% 33% 2%
30-50 21% 58% 41% 1% 21% 56% 43% 1% 21% 61% 38% 1%
50-75 22% 52% 46% 2% 22% 50% 48% 2% 22% 54% 44% 2%
75-100 15% 53% 46% 1% 15% 52% 47% 1% 15% 54% 45% 1%
100-150 13% 50% 48% 2% 13% 47% 51% 2% 13% 51% 47% 2%
150-200 5% 47% 51% 2% 5% 47% 51% 2% 5% 49% 49% 2%
200+ 5% 48% 51% 1% 5% 45% 53% 2% 5% 49% 50% 1%
TOTAL 100% 55.07% 43.27% 1.66% 100% 53.28% 44.89% 1.83% 100% 56.95% 41.39% 1.66%
REGION
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
NE 22% 64% 35% 1% 22% 63% 35% 2% 22% 66% 33% 2%
MidW 27% 57% 42% 1% 27% 52% 47% 1% 27% 59% 40% 1%
South 29% 45% 54% 1% 30% 45% 53% 2% 30% 48% 50% 2%
West 21% 57% 40% 3% 21% 54% 43% 3% 21% 58% 39% 3%
TOTAL 99% 54.49% 43.10% 1.41% 100% 52.74% 45.32% 1.94% 100% 57.03% 41.25% 1.94%
EDUCATION
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX*** Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
NoHS 4% 64% 35% 1% 3% 64% 35% 1% 4% 67% 32% 1%
HSG 21% 57% 42% 1% 21% 55% 44% 1% 21% 59% 40% 1%
Col 30% 52% 46% 2% 31% 51% 47% 2% 30% 54% 44% 2%
Grad 26% 52% 46% 2% 27% 49% 49% 2% 26% 54% 44% 2%
PostG 19% 60% 39% 1% 18% 58% 41% 1% 19% 62% 37% 1%
TOTAL 100% 55.05% 43.39% 1.56% 100% 52.95% 45.47% 1.58% 100% 57.09% 41.35% 1.56%
EDUCATION
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX** Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
NoDeg 54% 55% 43% 2% 55% 53% 45% 2% 54% 55% 43% 2%
Grad 46% 55% 43% 2% 45% 53% 46% 1% 46% 59% 39% 2%
TOTAL 100% 55.00% 43.00% 2.00% 100% 53.00% 45.45% 1.55% 100% 56.84% 41.16% 2.00%
PARTYID
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX** Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Dem 39% 93% 6% 1% 38% 93% 7% 0% 40% 94% 5% 1%
Rep 35% 9% 90% 1% 36% 8% 91% 1% 35% 12% 87% 1%
Ind 26% 58% 38% 4% 26% 57% 39% 4% 25% 61% 35% 4%
TOTAL 100% 54.50% 43.72% 1.78% 100% 53.04% 45.56% 1.40% 100% 57.05% 41.20% 1.75%
IDEOLOGY
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX* Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Lib 21% 88% 10% 2% 20% 87% 11% 2% 21% 91% 7% 2%
Mod 48% 62% 36% 2% 47% 60% 38% 2% 48% 64% 34% 2%
Con 32% 21% 77% 2% 32% 20% 78% 2% 32% 22% 76% 2%
TOTAL 101% 54.96% 44.02% 2.02% 99% 52.00% 45.02% 1.98% 101% 56.87% 42.11% 2.02%
RELIGION
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Prot 55% 46% 52% 2% 55% 44% 54% 2% 55% 49% 49% 2%
Cath 26% 56% 43% 1% 26% 55% 44% 1% 26% 58% 41% 1%
Jewish 2% 87% 10% 3% 2% 87% 12% 1% 2% 87% 10% 3%
Other 6% 71% 25% 4% 6% 71% 25% 4% 6% 75% 21% 4%
None 11% 76% 22% 2% 11% 74% 22% 4% 11% 80% 18% 2%
TOTAL 100% 54.22% 43.90% 1.88% 100% 52.64% 45.30% 2.06% 100% 57.07% 41.05% 1.88%
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U.S. House Vote: CBS News 11/09
Reported Uncounted Switch TRUE
Total Dem GOP Other Margin Total% Dem Rep Other Dem Dem Rep Other Margin
76585 52.66% 45.13% 2.21% 7.53% 3.16% 1873 574 50 2823 56.94% 40.86% 2.20% Diff
AL 579 38.7% 60.8% 0.5% -22.1% 3.7% 16 5 0.4 16 42.6% 56.8% 0.6% 7.1%
AK 202 40.1% 56.9% 3.0% -16.8% 3.7% 6 2 0.2 6 44.0% 53.0% 2.9% 7.2%
AZ 1127 42.5% 51.1% 6.4% -8.6% 2.7% 23 8 0.6 34 46.2% 47.5% 6.3% 7.1%
AR 747 60.0% 40.0% 0.0% 19.9% 3.1% 18 6 0.5 31 64.5% 35.5% 0.1% 9.7%
CA 6236 56.9% 39.8% 3.3% 17.2% 3.4% 158 53 4.2 248 61.3% 35.4% 3.3% 9.3%
CO 1371 53.1% 41.7% 5.2% 11.4% 2.6% 27 9 0.7 51 57.2% 37.7% 5.1% 8.5%
CT 1079 60.4% 39.0% 0.6% 21.4% 2.9% 23 8 0.6 46 64.9% 34.5% 0.6% 9.6%
DE 509 38.7% 57.2% 4.1% -18.5% 3.5% 13 4 0.4 14 42.5% 53.4% 4.1% 6.9%
FL 3727 40.2% 58.0% 1.8% -17.8% 3.1% 88 29 2.3 105 43.9% 54.2% 1.8% 7.0%
GA 1916 41.7% 58.3% 0.0% -16.6% 4.0% 58 19 1.5 56 45.8% 54.2% 0.1% 7.5%
HI 338 65.1% 34.9% 0.0% 30.2% 6.4% 16 5 0.4 15 69.9% 30.0% 0.1% 11.6%
ID 435 39.8% 55.9% 4.4% -16.1% 2.3% 8 3 0.2 12 43.3% 52.4% 4.3% 6.6%
IL 3127 55.4% 44.2% 0.4% 11.2% 3.2% 75 25 2.0 121 59.7% 39.8% 0.5% 9.1%
IN 1646 48.8% 49.9% 1.3% -1.1% 2.7% 33 11 0.9 56 52.8% 45.9% 1.4% 7.9%
IA 1028 47.7% 50.6% 1.8% -2.9% 2.3% 18 6 0.5 34 51.5% 46.7% 1.8% 7.6%
KS 827 43.7% 54.4% 1.9% -10.8% 2.7% 16 5 0.4 25 47.4% 50.6% 1.9% 7.2%
KY 1244 47.9% 49.0% 3.1% -1.0% 2.6% 24 8 0.6 42 51.8% 45.1% 3.1% 7.8%
LA 901 32.6% 64.4% 3.0% -31.7% 4.2% 28 9 0.7 21 36.5% 60.6% 3.0% 6.4%
ME 529 65.2% 30.4% 4.3% 34.8% 2.2% 9 3 0.2 24 69.9% 25.8% 4.3% 10.0%
MD 1344 61.6% 35.3% 3.1% 26.3% 4.1% 41 14 1.1 58 66.2% 30.8% 3.0% 10.2%
MA 1068 74.3% 18.5% 7.2% 55.7% 2.8% 22 7 0.6 56 79.3% 13.6% 7.1% 11.5%
MI 3516 51.0% 46.2% 2.8% 4.7% 3.1% 83 28 2.2 126 55.2% 42.1% 2.7% 8.4%
MN 2178 53.0% 42.5% 4.5% 10.5% 2.6% 42 14 1.1 81 57.1% 38.4% 4.5% 8.5%
MS 581 43.2% 50.8% 6.0% -7.6% 4.3% 19 6 0.5 18 47.4% 46.8% 5.9% 7.9%
MO 2050 47.1% 50.3% 2.6% -3.2% 2.9% 45 15 1.2 68 51.0% 46.4% 2.6% 7.8%
MT 805 39.0% 59.1% 1.9% -20.1% 2.5% 15 5 0.4 22 42.5% 55.6% 1.9% 6.6%
NE 586 43.9% 56.1% 0.0% -12.3% 2.5% 11 4 0.3 18 47.6% 52.4% 0.0% 7.2%
NV 573 50.1% 45.2% 4.7% 4.9% 3.0% 13 4 0.3 20 54.2% 41.2% 4.6% 8.3%
NH 402 52.0% 47.0% 1.0% 5.0% 2.2% 7 2 0.2 15 56.0% 43.0% 1.0% 8.2%
NJ 1859 51.0% 47.6% 1.3% 3.4% 3.4% 47 16 1.3 66 55.3% 43.4% 1.4% 8.5%
NM 545 55.8% 44.2% 0.0% 11.6% 2.9% 12 4 0.3 21 60.1% 39.9% 0.1% 9.0%
NY 3561 64.2% 35.6% 0.2% 28.6% 3.6% 95 32 2.5 160 68.8% 30.9% 0.3% 10.4%
NC 1842 50.8% 49.2% 0.0% 1.5% 3.6% 49 16 1.3 65 55.0% 44.9% 0.1% 8.6%
ND 433 65.6% 34.4% 0.0% 31.2% 2.5% 8 3 0.2 20 70.3% 29.7% 0.0% 10.2%
OH 3763 52.4% 47.4% 0.2% 4.9% 2.9% 82 27 2.2 138 56.5% 43.2% 0.3% 8.5%
OK 905 41.2% 57.2% 1.5% -16.0% 3.3% 22 7 0.6 26 45.0% 53.4% 1.6% 7.2%
OR 1264 56.4% 41.4% 2.2% 15.0% 2.5% 24 8 0.6 50 60.7% 37.1% 2.2% 8.9%
PA 3815 54.0% 44.7% 1.3% 9.3% 2.8% 81 27 2.2 144 58.2% 40.4% 1.3% 8.7%
RI 372 71.0% 11.3% 17.7% 59.7% 2.7% 7 2 0.2 18 75.9% 6.8% 17.3% 11.0%
SC 1072 43.5% 55.3% 1.2% -11.8% 3.9% 32 11 0.8 33 47.6% 51.2% 1.2% 7.7%
SD 667 69.1% 29.4% 1.5% 39.7% 2.7% 13 4 0.4 32 73.9% 24.5% 1.5% 10.7%
TN 1712 50.2% 46.6% 3.2% 3.7% 3.1% 40 13 1.1 60 54.4% 42.5% 3.2% 8.3%
TX 3994 44.6% 51.8% 3.6% -7.2% 3.0% 90 30 2.4 125 48.5% 48.0% 3.5% 7.5%
UT 549 42.6% 51.5% 5.8% -8.9% 2.4% 10 3 0.3 16 46.3% 48.0% 5.7% 7.0%
VT 524 53.2% 44.7% 2.1% 8.6% 2.2% 9 3 0.2 20 57.3% 40.6% 2.1% 8.4%
VA 2148 37.7% 56.8% 5.5% -19.1% 3.6% 57 19 1.5 57 41.5% 53.1% 5.4% 6.8%
WA 1309 61.3% 38.1% 0.5% 23.2% 2.9% 28 9 0.8 56 65.9% 33.6% 0.6% 9.7%
WV 446 57.8% 42.2% 0.0% 15.7% 2.3% 8 3 0.2 18 62.2% 37.8% 0.0% 9.0%
WI 1852 54.0% 45.1% 0.8% 8.9% 2.6% 36 12 1.0 70 58.2% 40.9% 0.8% 8.6%
WY 377 48.8% 49.3% 1.9% -0.5% 2.3% 7 2 0.2 13 52.7% 45.4% 1.9% 7.8%
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