TruthIsAll
12-07-2008, 09:07 AM
An Obama True Vote Landslide in 3-D
TruthIsAll
Dec. 9, 2008
Obama's True Vote (V) is a function of his share of returning Kerry, Bush and Other third-party voters. Given that the Final National Exit Poll percentage mix of new and returning Kerry and Bush voters is implausible (the Final is always forced to match the recorded vote), the Election Calculator (EC) model computes a plausible mix based on the 2004 recorded and uncounted vote, mortality and voter turnout in 2008. Using Final NEP Obama and McCain shares of returning voters, we can easily calculate the True Vote.
Given the returning 2004 voter mix, Obama's True Vote (V) is a simple mathematical calculation based on the mix and his share of returning voters:
V= RK*KP+ RB*BP + RO*OP
RK is Obama’s share of returning Kerry voters; RB his share of Bush voters, and RO his share of other third-party voters;
KP is the returning Kerry percentage share of the 2008 vote, BP is the returning Bush share and OP the returning other voter share.
Since the NEP vote shares have a margin of error, it is instructive to view the effects of incremental changes in Obama’s share of returning voters on his total vote. The sensitivity analysis shows that Obama did much better than the 52.8-45.7% recorded vote (69.06-59.70m) and may very well have won by more than 20 million votes.
The EC base case scenario assumes the NEP vote shares. But the Final NEP returning voter mix (46% Bush; 37% Kerry; 4% Other) is impossible. Bush voters could not have comprised 46% (60.1m) of the 130.69m votes in 2008. Since Bush had 62m official recorded votes in 2004 and approximately 3m died and 3m did not return to vote in 2008,no more than 56m former Bush voters could have voted in 2008. The Final overstated returning Bush voters by 4.1m. However, if the unadjusted 2004 exit poll represented the True Vote, Bush only had 57.5m votes and no more than 51.5m voted in 2008. The number of returning Bush voters was overstated by 8.6 million.
Similarly 2004 third-party voters could not have comprised 4% or 5.2m of the 2008 electorate since there were only 1.2m third-party voters in 2004. The Final NEP overstated third-party voter participation by 4 million!
The EC calculated a plausible mix for two scenarios. The first is based on the recorded 2004 vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%); the second on the unadjusted 2004 exit poll, won by Kerry (52-47%). The number of returning 2004 voters was calculated using 2004 voter mortality, uncounted votes and turnout rates. Obama won the recorded vote scenario by 75.0-57.6m (55.6-42.7%) and the unadjusted exit poll scenario by 77.9-54.5m (57.8-40.5%).
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ElectionCalculator_15960_image001.gif
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ElectionCalculator_454_image001.gif
2008 Final National Exit Poll
(forced to match recorded vote, 17836 respondents)
Vote 2004 Total Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
Share DNV 20.91 16% 71% 27% 2% 14.85 5.65 0.42
43.7% Kerry 48.34 37% 89% 9% 2% 43.02 4.35 0.97
53.9% Bush 59.62 46% 17% 82% 1% 10.14 48.89 0.60
Other 1.31 1% 66% 24% 10% 0.86 0.31 0.13
Total 130.69 100% 52.76% 45.62% 1.62% 68.86 59.20 2.11
Margin 9.67
Election Calculator: 2004 Recorded vote scenario
2004 Official Recorded Vote
Unctd Cast Died Alive Turnout Voted Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 21.0 15.6% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 59.0 2.6 61.6 2.9 58.7 95% 55.8 41.4% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 62.0 0.8 62.9 3.1 59.8 95% 56.8 42.2% 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.2 0.0 1.3 0.1 1.2 95% 1.1 0.8% 66% 24% 10%
Total 122.3 3.4 125.7 6.0 119.7 113.7 134.7 100% 55.6% 42.7% 1.6%
Cast 134.7 75.0 57.6 2.2
Election Calculator: Unadjusted 2004 exit poll scenario
2004 Unadjusted State Exit Poll
Unctd Cast Died Alive Turnout Voted Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 21.0 15.6% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 63.6 2.6 66.2 3.1 63.0 95% 59.9 44.4% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 57.5 0.8 58.3 2.8 55.5 95% 52.7 39.1% 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.2 0.0 1.3 0.1 1.2 95% 1.1 0.8% 66% 24% 10%
Total 122.3 3.4 125.7 6.0 119.7 113.7 134.7 100% 57.8% 40.5% 1.7%
Cast 134.7 77.9 54.5 2.3
Recorded 52.8% 45.7% 1.5%
130.7 69.1 59.7 1.9
3-D Sensitivity Analysis
Scenario I Scenario II
2004 Recorded Vote 2004 Unadjusted Exit Poll
Share of Share of New Voters Share of Share of New Voters
Kerry 61% 66% 71% 76% 81% Kerry 61% 66% 71% 76% 81%
Obama share of Bush:13.0%
93% 54.0% 54.8% 55.6% 56.4% 57.2% 93% 56.5% 57.3% 58.1% 58.8% 59.6%
91% 53.2% 54.0% 54.8% 55.6% 56.3% 91% 55.6% 56.4% 57.2% 57.9% 58.7%
89% 52.4% 53.2% 54.0% 54.7% 55.5% 89% 54.7% 55.5% 56.3% 57.1% 57.8%
87% 51.6% 52.3% 53.1% 53.9% 54.7% 87% 53.8% 54.6% 55.4% 56.2% 56.9%
85% 50.7% 51.5% 52.3% 53.1% 53.9% 85% 52.9% 53.7% 54.5% 55.3% 56.1%
Obama share of Bush:15.0%
93% 54.9% 55.7% 56.4% 57.2% 58.0% 93% 57.3% 58.1% 58.8% 59.6% 60.4%
91% 54.1% 54.8% 55.6% 56.4% 57.2% 91% 56.4% 57.2% 57.9% 58.7% 59.5%
89% 53.2% 54.0% 54.8% 55.6% 56.4% 89% 55.5% 56.3% 57.1% 57.8% 58.6%
87% 52.4% 53.2% 54.0% 54.7% 55.5% 87% 54.6% 55.4% 56.2% 56.9% 57.7%
85% 51.6% 52.4% 53.1% 53.9% 54.7% 85% 53.7% 54.5% 55.3% 56.1% 56.8%
Base Case
Obama share of Bush:17.0%
93% 55.7% 56.5% 57.3% 58.1% 58.9% 93% 58.1% 58.8% 59.6% 60.4% 61.2%
91% 54.9% 55.7% 56.5% 57.2% 58.0% 91% 57.2% 57.9% 58.7% 59.5% 60.3%
89% 54.1% 54.9% 55.6% 56.4% 57.2% 89% 56.3% 57.1% 57.8% 58.6% 59.4%
87% 53.2% 54.0% 54.8% 55.6% 56.4% 87% 55.4% 56.2% 56.9% 57.7% 58.5%
85% 52.4% 53.2% 54.0% 54.8% 55.5% 85% 54.5% 55.3% 56.1% 56.8% 57.6%
TruthIsAll
Dec. 9, 2008
Obama's True Vote (V) is a function of his share of returning Kerry, Bush and Other third-party voters. Given that the Final National Exit Poll percentage mix of new and returning Kerry and Bush voters is implausible (the Final is always forced to match the recorded vote), the Election Calculator (EC) model computes a plausible mix based on the 2004 recorded and uncounted vote, mortality and voter turnout in 2008. Using Final NEP Obama and McCain shares of returning voters, we can easily calculate the True Vote.
Given the returning 2004 voter mix, Obama's True Vote (V) is a simple mathematical calculation based on the mix and his share of returning voters:
V= RK*KP+ RB*BP + RO*OP
RK is Obama’s share of returning Kerry voters; RB his share of Bush voters, and RO his share of other third-party voters;
KP is the returning Kerry percentage share of the 2008 vote, BP is the returning Bush share and OP the returning other voter share.
Since the NEP vote shares have a margin of error, it is instructive to view the effects of incremental changes in Obama’s share of returning voters on his total vote. The sensitivity analysis shows that Obama did much better than the 52.8-45.7% recorded vote (69.06-59.70m) and may very well have won by more than 20 million votes.
The EC base case scenario assumes the NEP vote shares. But the Final NEP returning voter mix (46% Bush; 37% Kerry; 4% Other) is impossible. Bush voters could not have comprised 46% (60.1m) of the 130.69m votes in 2008. Since Bush had 62m official recorded votes in 2004 and approximately 3m died and 3m did not return to vote in 2008,no more than 56m former Bush voters could have voted in 2008. The Final overstated returning Bush voters by 4.1m. However, if the unadjusted 2004 exit poll represented the True Vote, Bush only had 57.5m votes and no more than 51.5m voted in 2008. The number of returning Bush voters was overstated by 8.6 million.
Similarly 2004 third-party voters could not have comprised 4% or 5.2m of the 2008 electorate since there were only 1.2m third-party voters in 2004. The Final NEP overstated third-party voter participation by 4 million!
The EC calculated a plausible mix for two scenarios. The first is based on the recorded 2004 vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%); the second on the unadjusted 2004 exit poll, won by Kerry (52-47%). The number of returning 2004 voters was calculated using 2004 voter mortality, uncounted votes and turnout rates. Obama won the recorded vote scenario by 75.0-57.6m (55.6-42.7%) and the unadjusted exit poll scenario by 77.9-54.5m (57.8-40.5%).
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ElectionCalculator_15960_image001.gif
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ElectionCalculator_454_image001.gif
2008 Final National Exit Poll
(forced to match recorded vote, 17836 respondents)
Vote 2004 Total Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
Share DNV 20.91 16% 71% 27% 2% 14.85 5.65 0.42
43.7% Kerry 48.34 37% 89% 9% 2% 43.02 4.35 0.97
53.9% Bush 59.62 46% 17% 82% 1% 10.14 48.89 0.60
Other 1.31 1% 66% 24% 10% 0.86 0.31 0.13
Total 130.69 100% 52.76% 45.62% 1.62% 68.86 59.20 2.11
Margin 9.67
Election Calculator: 2004 Recorded vote scenario
2004 Official Recorded Vote
Unctd Cast Died Alive Turnout Voted Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 21.0 15.6% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 59.0 2.6 61.6 2.9 58.7 95% 55.8 41.4% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 62.0 0.8 62.9 3.1 59.8 95% 56.8 42.2% 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.2 0.0 1.3 0.1 1.2 95% 1.1 0.8% 66% 24% 10%
Total 122.3 3.4 125.7 6.0 119.7 113.7 134.7 100% 55.6% 42.7% 1.6%
Cast 134.7 75.0 57.6 2.2
Election Calculator: Unadjusted 2004 exit poll scenario
2004 Unadjusted State Exit Poll
Unctd Cast Died Alive Turnout Voted Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 21.0 15.6% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 63.6 2.6 66.2 3.1 63.0 95% 59.9 44.4% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 57.5 0.8 58.3 2.8 55.5 95% 52.7 39.1% 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.2 0.0 1.3 0.1 1.2 95% 1.1 0.8% 66% 24% 10%
Total 122.3 3.4 125.7 6.0 119.7 113.7 134.7 100% 57.8% 40.5% 1.7%
Cast 134.7 77.9 54.5 2.3
Recorded 52.8% 45.7% 1.5%
130.7 69.1 59.7 1.9
3-D Sensitivity Analysis
Scenario I Scenario II
2004 Recorded Vote 2004 Unadjusted Exit Poll
Share of Share of New Voters Share of Share of New Voters
Kerry 61% 66% 71% 76% 81% Kerry 61% 66% 71% 76% 81%
Obama share of Bush:13.0%
93% 54.0% 54.8% 55.6% 56.4% 57.2% 93% 56.5% 57.3% 58.1% 58.8% 59.6%
91% 53.2% 54.0% 54.8% 55.6% 56.3% 91% 55.6% 56.4% 57.2% 57.9% 58.7%
89% 52.4% 53.2% 54.0% 54.7% 55.5% 89% 54.7% 55.5% 56.3% 57.1% 57.8%
87% 51.6% 52.3% 53.1% 53.9% 54.7% 87% 53.8% 54.6% 55.4% 56.2% 56.9%
85% 50.7% 51.5% 52.3% 53.1% 53.9% 85% 52.9% 53.7% 54.5% 55.3% 56.1%
Obama share of Bush:15.0%
93% 54.9% 55.7% 56.4% 57.2% 58.0% 93% 57.3% 58.1% 58.8% 59.6% 60.4%
91% 54.1% 54.8% 55.6% 56.4% 57.2% 91% 56.4% 57.2% 57.9% 58.7% 59.5%
89% 53.2% 54.0% 54.8% 55.6% 56.4% 89% 55.5% 56.3% 57.1% 57.8% 58.6%
87% 52.4% 53.2% 54.0% 54.7% 55.5% 87% 54.6% 55.4% 56.2% 56.9% 57.7%
85% 51.6% 52.4% 53.1% 53.9% 54.7% 85% 53.7% 54.5% 55.3% 56.1% 56.8%
Base Case
Obama share of Bush:17.0%
93% 55.7% 56.5% 57.3% 58.1% 58.9% 93% 58.1% 58.8% 59.6% 60.4% 61.2%
91% 54.9% 55.7% 56.5% 57.2% 58.0% 91% 57.2% 57.9% 58.7% 59.5% 60.3%
89% 54.1% 54.9% 55.6% 56.4% 57.2% 89% 56.3% 57.1% 57.8% 58.6% 59.4%
87% 53.2% 54.0% 54.8% 55.6% 56.4% 87% 55.4% 56.2% 56.9% 57.7% 58.5%
85% 52.4% 53.2% 54.0% 54.8% 55.5% 85% 54.5% 55.3% 56.1% 56.8% 57.6%