This Dec. 2004 OP generated a very good discussion on DU.
Check out Peace Patriot's excellent post.

CLUES? Exit Poll Deviations weighted by EV; Voting Machine Mix by state

www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x175639#175790
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In Dec. 2004, unadjusted state exit poll data had not yet been released.
The state exit poll data downloaded by Jonathan Simon was not pristine.
The data had already been contaminated.
It was in the process of being matched to the recorded vote.

On Jan. 19, exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky released their summary report.
It included unadjusted (pristine) state exit poll discrepancies (WPE).

The 52-47% Kerry state exit poll aggregate was a 7.4% discrepancy from the recorded
vote (48.3-50.7).
The true discrepancy was 2.5% greater than the original downloaded set (51.0-48.5%).

For example, in the unadjusted EP, the 1.4m CA discrepancy favored Bush.
But the downloaded exit poll data showed a deviation to Kerry.

California and New York accounted for 78% (2.34m) of Bush's 3.0m recorded margin.
The two states accounted for 26% of the total 9.0m aggregate state exit poll discrepancy.

The following table shows where Bush stole the EV (*) and padded the popular vote.

These Battleground states flipped from Kerry to Bush (OH, FL, IA, NM, CO)
Bush padded his vote in TX, NC, VA and solid Kerry states (NY, CA, etc.).

Low EV states that were solid for Bush had the smallest WPEs.
No wonder. There was nothing of value to pad or flip in the small Bush states.

.....

2004 Recorded Vote
Bush 62.040 (50.73%)
Kerry 59.027 (48.27%)
Margin 3.013 (2.46%)

Adjusting the recorded vote using aggregate state WPE gave Kerry a 4.93% margin:
Kerry = 59.03 + 4.52 = 63.55 (51.96%)
Bush = 62.04 - 4.52 = 57.52 (47.03%)

There was a 7.39% difference in margin (WPE).

But even the unadjusted exit poll understated Kerry's True 7.5% margin (53.1-45.6%).
The True Vote margin was 9.4m (66.7-57.3m).
Therefore the True WPE was 9.9%.

The sample design did not account for:

1. The extremely high turnout of 21.6m new voters.
New voters split 57-62% for Kerry according to the National Exit Poll time line.

2. The high turnout (98.5%) of returning 2000 voters.
Gore won the true vote by 3 million (after allocation of 3.45m uncounted votes)

3. Returning voter defection: Gore (8%) and Bush (10%).

4. Nader 2000 voters split 64-17% to Kerry.

2004 Calculated Vote
2000 Record Unctd Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 21.63 17.20% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 51.00 4.06 55.06 2.55 52.51 98.51% 51.72 41.1% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 50.46 1.19 51.65 2.40 49.25 98.51% 48.52 38.6% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.95 0.16 4.12 0.19 3.92 98.51% 3.87 3.07% 64% 17% 19%

Total 105.42 5.41 110.83 5.14 105.68 104.11 125.74 100% 53.07% 45.60% 1.34%
Cast 125.74 66.72 57.33 1.68
Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23

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2004
State Contributions to Total Margin Discrepancy

Margin Discr Discr % Cumulative Discrepancy
State WPE/IMS Votes Bush Vote Contribution
Total 7.4% 9044k Margin (000) % of Total

CA 11.6 1441 48.0% 1441 15.9%
NY 12.2 902 30.1% 2342 10.0%
OH * 10.6 597 19.9% 2939 6.6%
FL * 7.8 594 19.8% 3533 6.6%
TX 7.6 563 18.8% 4096 6.2%

PA 8.4 485 16.2% 4580 5.4%
NC 11.9 417 13.9% 4997 4.6%
NJ 9.1 329 11.0% 5326 3.6%
MI 6.4 310 10.3% 5635 3.4%
VA 8.7 278 9.3% 5914 3.1%

MN 9.2 260 8.7% 6174 2.9%
CT 16.0 253 8.4% 6426 2.8%
WA 8.0 229 7.6% 6655 2.5%
MA 7.7 224 7.5% 6879 2.5%
MS 18.5 213 7.1% 7093 2.4%

AL 10.0 188 6.3% 7281 2.1%
IL 3.5 185 6.2% 7466 2.0%
MD 7.3 174 5.8% 7640 1.9%
MO 5.8 158 5.3% 7798 1.8%
SC 9.7 157 5.2% 7955 1.7%

WI 4.8 144 4.8% 8099 1.6%
CO * 6.1 130 4.3% 8229 1.4%
NH 14.0 95 3.2% 8324 1.0%
NV * 9.9 82 2.7% 8406 0.9%
NE 8.7 68 2.3% 8474 0.7%

NM * 8.0 61 2.0% 8534 0.7%
DE 15.9 60 2.0% 8594 0.7%
IN 2.2 54 1.8% 8648 0.6%
LA 2.6 51 1.7% 8699 0.6%
VT 15.2 47 1.6% 8746 0.5%

IA * 3.0 45 1.5% 8791 0.5%
GA 1.3 43 1.4% 8834 0.5%
UT 4.3 40 1.3% 8874 0.4%
HI 8.2 35 1.2% 8909 0.4%
OR 1.8 33 1.1% 8942 0.4%

TN 1.3 32 1.1% 8974 0.4%
ME 4.0 30 1.0% 9004 0.3%
AK 9.3 29 1.0% 9033 0.3%
ID 4.0 24 0.8% 9057 0.3%
RI 5.3 23 0.8% 9080 0.3%

WY 7.0 17 0.6% 9097 0.2%
AR 1.3 14 0.5% 9111 0.2%
KS 1.1 13 0.4% 9124 0.1%
KY 0.4 7 0.2% 9131 0.1%
DC 2.8 6 0.2% 9137 0.1%

AZ 0.3 6 0.2% 9143 0.1%
ND (1.7) (5) -0.2% 9138 -0.1%
MT (2.6) (12) -0.4% 9126 -0.1%
OK (1.2) (18) -0.6% 9109 -0.2%
SD (5.1) (20) -0.7% 9089 -0.2%
WV (5.9) (45) -1.5% 9044 -0.5%
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