TruthIsAll
02-07-2009, 07:40 PM
The Final National Exit Poll: Proves 2004, 2006, 2008 Election Fraud
TruthIsAll
Feb. 7, 2009
The distinction between unadjusted and adjusted Final National Exit Poll (NEP)is the
cause of much confusion and misinformation. The Final “contaminates” raw, unadjusted
polling data by forcing a match to the recorded vote. If the vote count
is fraudulent, simple logic dictates that the Final Exit Poll does not provide the
True Vote, but rather a corrupt one. Furthermore, all demographic category
crosstabs would also need to be adjusted and would result in misleading statistics.
This analysis will prove that in each of the 2004, 2006, 2008 elections, the Final
NEP used an impossible returning voter mix to match the recorded vote. Therefore,
the recorded vote also had to be impossible. It overstated the Republican vote share
(and understated the Democratic share) by 3-4% in each election.
Media pundits (even those on the left) always make the same claim: that the early
exit polls are wrong since they don’t match the recorded vote. But they don’t even
mention the possibility that Election Fraud may be the reason for the
discrepancies. They never considered the possibility that the recorded vote may
have been miscounted and therefore the preliminary exit polls were essentially
correct. They assumed the count was accurate. Pundits who should know better then
catapulted the propaganda by stating that the final exit poll confirmed the vote
count. In so doing, they continue to promote the myth that the elections are
fraud-free. And they have done so in every election since 2004.
They dismiss the accuracy of the early exit polls, claiming they were not designed
to predict the True Vote but just to provide a demographic snapshot of the
electorate. But if that’s the case, and the recorded vote count is corrupted, then
so are the demographics. They never did the analysis that would have proved that the
returning voter weights Final NEP were impossible. If they had, they would have
come to the same conclusion as the spreadsheet-wielding bloggers: the reported vote
counts were impossible (view the spreadsheet analysis below).
It’s standard operating procedure for exit pollsters to force the final state and
national exit polls to match the recorded vote - even if it means using impossible
weights and implausible vote shares. The procedure assumes a fraud-free election–
not exactly a reality-based assumption.
Apart from the Final National Exit Poll, there is a mountain of documented evidence
to suggest that the 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections were fraudulent. Since the final
state and national exit polls were forced to match the official results, a serious
analyst would focus on the changes in vote shares and weights from the unadjusted,
“pristine” exit polls that were required. But serious analysts of election fraud are
still maligned by the main-stream media and others who frequent election forums with
an obvious agenda: to hide the truth about election fraud from the public.
2008
The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote Obama by
69.4-59.9 million (52.9-45.6%). It indicates that returning Bush 2004 voters
comprised 46% (60.4m) of the 131.37 million voters in 2008. Bush won by 62.0-59.0
million recorded votes in 2004. Approximately 3.0m (4.8%) died, therefore at most
59.0m Bush voters returned in 2008. Assuming that 3.0m did not vote (95% turnout),
there were 4 million more returning Bush voters than could have voted. The returning
voter mix implies that Bush won by 52.9-42.5%. But the actual recorded vote share
was Bush 50.73- Kerry 48.27%.
The Final also indicates that returning Kerry voters comprised just 37% (48.4m) of
the 2008 electorate. Kerry had 59.0 million recorded votes in 2004. How could there
have been 11.7 million more returning Bush voters than Kerry voters? Bush won by
just 3.0 million votes. One would expect that Kerry voters would be more motivated
to vote for Obama than Bush voters for McCain.
If the 2004 unadjusted state exit polls are to be believed, Kerry won by 52-47%
63.6-57.5m). Assuming a 5% voter mortality rate, 54.6m Bush voters were alive in
2008. If 51.9m (95%) voted in 2008, the 2008 Final NEP inflated the number of
returning Bush voters by 8.5 million.
The Final also indicated that third-party 2004 voters comprised 4% of the 2008
electorate – another impossibility. There were only 1.22m third party voters in 2004
(1% of the total).
The Final is impossible. And because it was forced to match the recorded
vote, the 2008 recorded vote must also have been impossible.
Given:
a) 95% turnout of 2004 voters still living in 2008
b) 2008 NEP shares of returning and new voters
then if
1. The 2004 election was fraud-free and Bush won by his recorded 2.5% margin,
Obama won by 17.6 million votes – an 8 million increase over his recorded margin.
2. The 2004 election was fraudulent and Kerry won by the unadjusted exit poll 5%
margin,
Obama won by 22.6 million votes – a 13 million increase over his recorded margin.
2004
The 12:22am NEP “Voted 2000” category indicated that Bush 2000 voters comprised 41%
of the 2004 electorate and Gore voters 39%. Kerry was a 51-48% winner. But in the
Final NEP, the weights were adjusted to 43% and 37% – to match the Bush 51-48%
margin. The 4% increase in the spread between Gore and Bush voters was a major
component of the reversal.
John Kerry held a steady 51-48% lead throughout the National Exit Poll timeline: at
4pm (8349 respondents); 7:30pm (11027); 12:22am (13047) - after the polls closed.
But of course Bush won the Final NEP by 51-48% (13660 respondents). The Final was
posted the day after the election and was forced to match the Recorded Vote count by
using impossible weights and implausible vote shares.
The impossible 46/37 Bush/Kerry returning voter mix in the Final 2008 NEP is nothing
new. The Bush 43% share was mathematically and physically impossible since it meant
that Bush had 52.6 million votes in 2000; he had just 50.5 million. Approximately
2.5 million died. Therefore, only 48m former Bush voters were alive in 2004.
Therefore, the 2004 Final overstated the number of returning Bush 2000 voters by
more than 4.5 million.
In 2004, the difference between the calculated vote and recorded vote margin was
also 13 million. The Election Calculator determined that Kerry won the True Vote by
67-57m. A feasible returning voter mix was based on a 2000 voter annual mortality
rate of 1.22% and an assumed 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am
(Composite) vote shares were used rather than the Final NEP shares. The reason: the
Final 2004 NEP Bush vote shares were inflated, along with the 2000 Bush returning
voter mix, to force a match to the recorded vote.
2006 midterms
At 7pm, the Bush/Kerry NEP returning voter mix was 47/45%. It was changed to 49/43%
in the Final. Once again, the exit pollsters had to match the vote count by
increasing the spread 4%! This had a major effect in reducing the Democratic margin
from 55-43% at 7pm to 52-46% in the Final.
The Democratic Tsunami gained 31 congressional seats. But they actually did much
better than that. A regression trend analysis of 120 pre-election Generic polls (all
won by the Democrats) projected they would win by 56-42% and gain over 40 seats. The
7pm National Exit Poll confirmed the pre-election trend. But the next day, the Final
NEP was once again forced to match a corrupted vote count with implausible weights
and vote shares. The Democratic margin was cut in half. The fraud resulted in the
loss of 10-20 seats.
The 2008 Election Calculator – a plausible return voter mix
The Election Calculator used Final 2008 NEP vote shares but not the impossible NEP
return voter mix.
The first scenario assumed the recorded 2004 vote to determine the returning voter
mix (Bush by 50.73-48.27%).
Obama won this (unlikely) scenario by 17.6 million votes – an 8 million increase
over his recorded margin.
The second scenario used the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (Kerry by 52-47%).
Obama won this (most likely) scenario by 22.6 million - a 13 million increase over
his recorded margin.
____________________________________________________________________________
2008 Final National Exit Poll
Implied 2004 Total Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
Vote DNV 17.08 13% 71% 27% 2% 12.1 4.6 0.3
42.5% Kerry 48.61 37% 89% 9% 2% 43.3 4.4 1.0
52.9% Bush 60.43 46% 17% 82% 1% 10.3 49.6 0.6
4.6% Other 5.25 4% 66% 24% 10% 3.5 1.3 0.5
114.3 Total 131.37 100% 52.62% 45.52% 1.86% 69.13 59.80 2.44
Election Calculator Model
Scenario 1: 2004 returning voter mix based on the recorded 2004 vote adjusted for
2004 voters: 3.45 million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality, 95% turnout; 3.0%
uncounted in 2008
a) Obama wins by 17.6m: 75.4-57.8 (55.7-42.7%) assuming 4.0m uncounted votes (3.0%
of 135.4m cast).
b) Obama wins by 15.8m: 72.5-56.7 (55.2-43.1%) assuming no uncounted votes.
Actual 2004 Total Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
Vote DNV 21.71 16.0% 71% 27% 2% 15.4 5.9 0.4
48.27% Kerry 55.72 41.1% 89% 9% 2% 49.6 5.0 1.1
50.73% Bush 56.86 42.0% 17% 82% 1% 9.7 46.6 0.6
1.00% Other 1.14 0.8% 66% 24% 10% 0.8 0.3 0.1
Total 135.43 100.0% 55.69% 42.66% 1.65% 75.43 57.77 2.23
Scenario 2: 2004 returning voter mix based on the unadjusted 2004 exit poll shares
adjusted for
2004 voters: 3.45 million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality, 95% turnout; 3.0%
uncounted in 2008
a) Obama wins by 22.6m: 77.9-55.3 (57.5-40.8%) assuming 4.0m uncounted votes.
b) Obama wins by 20.8m: 75.0-54.2 (57.1-41.3%) assuming no uncounted votes.
Unadj 2004 Total Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
ExitP DNV 21.71 16.0% 71% 27% 2% 15.4 5.9 0.43
52.0% Kerry 59.13 43.7% 89% 9% 2% 52.6 5.3 1.18
47.0% Bush 53.44 39.5% 17% 82% 1% 9.1 43.8 0.53
1.0% Other 1.14 0.8% 66% 24% 10% 0.8 0.3 0.11
Total 135.43 100% 57.51% 40.82% 1.67% 77.88 55.28 2.27
____________________________________________________________________________
2004 Final National Exit Poll
13660 Respondents
11/03 2:05pm
2000 Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.79 17% 54% 45% 1% 11.22 9.35 0.21
Gore 45.24 37% 90% 10% 0% 40.72 4.52 0.00
Bush 52.58 43% 9% 91% 0% 4.73 47.84 0.00
Other 3.67 3% 71% 21% 8% 2.60 0.77 0.29
Total 122.3 100% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 59.28 62.49 0.50
Preliminary
13047 Respondents
11/03 12:22am
2000 Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.79 17% 57% 41% 2% 11.85 8.52 0.42
Gore 47.69 39% 91% 8% 1% 43.39 3.81 0.48
Bush 50.13 41% 10% 90% 0% 5.01 45.12 0.00
Other 3.67 3% 71% 21% 8% 2.60 0.77 0.29
Total 122.3 100% 51.41% 47.62% 0.97% 62.86 58.22 1.19
Election Calculator True Vote Model
Returning voter mix based on the recorded 2000 vote adjusted for 5.4 million
uncounted votes, 4.8% mortality, 95% turnout of living 2000 voters in 2004;
3.45m uncounted votes in 2004 (125.7m cast)
Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - 25.61 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 49.70 39.5% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 46.60 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 95% 3.82 3.0% 64% 17% 19%
Total 100.1 125.7 100% 53.23% 45.39% 1.38%
66.94 57.07 1.74
____________________________________________________________________________
The 2006 National Exit Poll
--------- 7:07pm ----------- -------------- Final -------- ------ True Generic Vote -----
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Kerry 45% 93% 6% 1% 43% 92% 7% 1% 49% 93% 6% 1%
Bush 47% 17% 82% 1% 49% 15% 83% 2% 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 4% 67% 23% 10% 4% 66% 23% 11% 1% 67% 23% 10%
DNV 4% 67% 30% 3% 4% 66% 32% 2% 4% 67% 30% 3%
TOTAL 100% 55.2% 43.4% 1.4% 100% 52.2% 45.9% 1.9% 100% 56.7% 42.1% 1.2%
____________________________________________________________________________
The 2004 State Exit Poll Aggregate Timeline
Edison-Mitofsky provided four aggregate state exit poll measures.
Kerry won the first three; Bush won the Final:
1) WPE 51.8-47.2% (unadjusted)
2) GEO 51.0-48.5% (adjusted to incoming recorded votes)
3) Composite 50.3-49.1% (12:22am-adjusted to pre-election polls)
4) Final 48.5-51.1% (matched to recorded vote)
WPE is the only unadjusted (“pristine”) method. It is based on the average
discrepancy between the exit poll result and recorded vote for all precincts polled
in the state. Measures (2) and (3) are adjusted estimates which incorporate
pre-election polls and recorded votes. The final state exit polls were forced to
match the recorded votes, therefore implying ZERO election fraud. Why should we
believe them? And why bother doing exit polls at all if they will just assume that
the recorded vote count was the True Vote?
Edison-Mitofsky Exit Poll Timeline
RECORDED VOTE WPE (WITHIN PRECINCT ERROR) BEST GEO COMPOSITE
http://www.exitpollz.org/ 12:40am
Kerry Bush Margin EV Kerry Bush Margin WPE EV Kerry Bush Margin Error EV Kerry Bush Margin Error EV
Total 48.27 50.73 (2.46) 251 51.84 47.18 4.7 7.11 324 51.04 48.49 2.56 5.01 301 50.26 49.11 1.15 3.60 288
AL 36.8 62.5 (25.6) 42.5 56.8 (14.3) 11.3 42.0 57.5 (15.5) 10.1 40.6 58.7 (18.1) 7.5
AK 35.5 61.1 (25.5) 40.3 56.3 (15.9) 9.6 41.2 57.4 (16.2) 9.3 39.0 58.8 (19.8) 5.7
AZ 44.4 54.9 (10.5) 46.7 52.6 (5.9) 4.6 46.5 53.5 (7.0) 3.5 46.8 53.2 (6.4) 4.1
AR 44.5 54.3 (9.8) 44.8 54.1 (9.3) 0.5 46.8 52.4 (5.6) 4.2 47.0 52.2 (5.2) 4.6
CA 54.3 44.4 9.9 55 59.8 38.9 20.8 10.9 55 56.5 43.5 13.0 3.1 55 56.5 43.5 13.0 3.1 55
CO 47.0 51.7 (4.7) 50.1 48.6 1.4 6.1 9 47.0 52.5 (5.5) (0.8) 47.7 51.4 (3.7) 1.0
CT 54.3 43.9 10.4 7 62.2 36.1 26.1 15.7 7 59.3 39.6 19.7 9.3 7 58.1 40.5 17.6 7.2 7
DE 53.3 45.8 7.6 3 61.3 37.8 23.5 15.9 3 61.5 37.9 23.6 16.0 3 57.7 41.2 16.5 8.9 3
DC 89.2 9.3 79.8 3 90.9 7.6 83.2 3.4 3 91.1 8.1 83.0 3.2 3 90.2 8.4 81.8 2.0 3
FL 47.1 52.1 (5.0) 50.9 48.3 2.6 7.6 27 49.2 50.3 (1.1) 3.9 49.3 50.1 (0.8) 4.2
GA 41.4 58.0 (16.6) 42.5 56.9 (14.4) 2.2 43.5 56.5 (13.0) 3.6 43.0 57.1 (14.1) 2.5
HI 54.0 45.3 8.7 4 56.4 42.9 13.4 4.7 4 56.5 43.4 13.1 4.4 4 53.6 46.4 7.2 (1.5) 4
ID 30.3 68.4 (38.1) 30.8 67.9 (37.1) 1.0 30.9 69.1 (38.2) (0.1) 31.6 68.3 (36.7) 1.4
IL 54.8 44.5 10.3 21 57.0 42.3 14.7 4.4 21 57.5 42.6 14.9 4.6 21 57.0 42.9 14.1 3.8 21
IN 39.3 59.9 (20.7) 40.0 59.2 (19.2) 1.5 40.5 59.6 (19.1) 1.6 41.3 58.8 (17.5) 3.2
IA 49.2 49.9 (0.7) 50.7 48.4 2.3 3.0 7 50.0 49.0 1.0 1.7 7 50.0 49.0 1.0 1.7 7
KS 36.6 62.0 (25.4) 37.5 61.2 (23.7) 1.7 36.6 62.8 (26.2) (0.8) 34.4 64.6 (30.2) (4.8)
KY 39.7 59.6 (19.9) 39.6 59.6 (20.0) (0.1) 40.6 58.6 (18.0) 1.9 40.9 58.3 (17.4) 2.5
LA 42.2 56.7 (14.5) 44.1 54.8 (10.7) 3.8 43.2 56.3 (13.1) 1.4 44.3 54.8 (10.5) 4.0
ME 53.6 44.6 9.0 4 55.5 42.7 12.8 3.8 4 54.3 44.6 9.7 0.7 4 53.9 44.4 9.5 0.5 4
MD 55.9 42.9 13.0 10 60.0 38.9 21.1 8.1 10 59.4 39.7 19.7 6.7 10 56.6 42.5 14.1 1.1 10
MA 61.9 36.8 25.2 12 64.8 33.9 31.0 5.8 12 66.3 33.6 32.7 7.5 12 65.7 34.2 31.5 6.3 12
MI 51.2 47.8 3.4 17 54.4 44.7 9.7 6.3 17 51.8 47.3 4.5 1.1 17 51.9 47.1 4.8 1.4 17
MN 51.1 47.6 3.5 9 55.7 43.0 12.8 9.3 9 56.7 42.4 14.3 10.8 9 53.7 44.9 8.8 5.3 9
MS 40.2 59.0 (18.9) 45.8 53.4 (7.6) 11.3 46.2 53.2 (7.0) 11.9 43.4 56.0 (12.6) 6.3
MO 46.1 53.3 (7.2) 49.0 50.4 (1.4) 5.8 47.8 52.2 (4.4) 2.8 47.8 52.1 (4.3) 2.9
MT 38.6 59.1 (20.5) 37.7 60.0 (22.3) (1.8) 37.8 59.9 (22.1) (1.6) 37.2 60.0 (22.8) (2.3)
NE 32.7 65.9 (33.2) 36.7 61.8 (25.1) 8.1 37.5 61.7 (24.2) 9.0 36.1 62.6 (26.5) 6.7
NV 47.9 50.5 (2.6) 52.9 45.4 7.5 10.1 5 49.3 47.9 1.4 4.0 5 48.9 48.3 0.6 3.2 5
NH 50.2 48.9 1.4 4 57.0 42.1 15.0 13.6 4 57.1 42.1 15.0 13.6 4 55.1 43.9 11.2 9.8 4
NJ 52.9 46.2 6.7 15 57.8 41.4 16.4 9.7 15 58.4 40.2 18.2 11.5 15 55.3 42.8 12.5 5.8 15
NM 49.0 49.8 (0.8) 52.9 45.9 7.0 7.8 5 51.7 47.5 4.2 5.0 5 50.8 48.0 2.8 3.6 5
NY 58.4 40.1 18.3 31 64.1 34.4 29.7 11.4 31 65.1 33.8 31.3 13.0 31 63.1 35.5 27.6 9.3 31
NC 43.6 56.0 (12.4) 49.2 50.4 (1.1) 11.3 48.2 51.8 (3.6) 8.8 48.1 51.9 (3.8) 8.6
ND 35.5 62.9 (27.4) 32.9 65.5 (32.6) (5.2) 32.3 66.7 (34.4) (7.0) 33.3 64.9 (31.6) (4.2)
OH 48.7 50.8 (2.1) 54.2 45.4 8.8 10.9 20 53.2 46.7 6.5 8.6 20 51.7 48.3 3.4 5.5 20
OK 34.4 65.6 (31.1) 33.5 66.5 (33.0) (1.9) 34.1 65.8 (31.7) (0.6) 34.6 65.4 (30.8) 0.3
OR 51.3 47.2 4.2 7 53.0 47.0 6.0 1.8 7 53.0 47.0 6.0 1.8 7 50.3 47.9 2.4 (1.8) 7
PA 50.9 48.4 2.5 21 55.3 44.0 11.3 8.8 21 56.9 43.1 13.8 11.3 21 54.2 45.7 8.5 6.0 21
RI 59.4 38.7 20.8 4 61.8 36.3 25.5 4.7 4 62.4 36.3 26.1 5.3 4 63.2 34.9 28.3 7.5 4
SC 40.9 58.0 (17.1) 45.9 53.0 (7.1) 10.0 46.4 52.4 (6.0) 11.1 45.1 53.8 (8.7) 8.4
SD 38.4 59.9 (21.5) 36.3 62.0 (25.7) (4.2) 34.9 63.2 (28.3) (6.8) 36.8 61.5 (24.7) (3.2)
TN 42.5 56.8 (14.3) 42.8 56.5 (13.8) 0.5 40.3 58.5 (18.2) (3.9) 41.3 57.6 (16.3) (2.0)
TX 38.2 61.1 (22.9) 40.6 58.7 (18.1) 4.8 36.5 63.5 (27.0) (4.1) 37.1 62.9 (25.8) (2.9)
UT 26.0 71.5 (45.5) 29.2 68.3 (39.1) 6.4 29.9 69.2 (39.3) 6.2 29.9 68.3 (38.4) 7.1
VT 58.9 38.8 20.1 3 66.4 31.3 35.1 15.0 3 67.0 30.4 36.6 16.5 3 64.5 32.8 31.7 11.6 3
VA 45.5 53.7 (8.2) 49.4 49.7 (0.3) 7.9 50.2 49.7 0.5 8.7 13 48.0 51.9 (3.9) 4.3
WA 52.8 45.6 7.2 11 57.0 41.4 15.6 8.4 11 54.9 44.2 10.7 3.5 11 54.1 44.6 9.5 2.3 11
WV 43.2 56.1 (12.9) 40.3 59.0 (18.7) (5.8) 41.6 57.4 (15.8) (2.9) 44.9 54.2 (9.3) 3.6
WI 49.7 49.3 0.4 10 52.0 47.0 5.1 4.7 10 52.5 46.8 5.7 5.3 10 49.6 49.2 0.4 0.0 10
WY 29.1 68.9 (39.8) 31.2 66.7 (35.5) 4.3 34.5 63.6 (29.1) 10.7 31.6 66.4 (34.8) 5.0
2004 National Exit Poll
Kerry won the 12:22am National Exit Poll (13047 respondents) by a 4.6m vote margin.
Bush won the Final National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) by a 3.2m margin.
Final recorded vote (mil.)
Kerry Bush Other
59.03 62.04 1.23
48.27% 50.73% 1.01%
National Exit Poll
Voted 2000 Category
Timeline Summary
NEP Sample Poll Kerry Vote
Timeline Size MoE Share Margin
3:59pm 8349 1.29% 51.01% 4.96 million
7:38pm 11027 1.12% 50.90% 4.66
12:22am 13047 1.03% 51.41% 4.63
Final 13660 1.01% 48.48% -3.22
8349 Respondents
11/02 3:59pm Vote Shares Votes (in millions)
2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 18.34 15% 62% 37% 1% 11.37 6.79 0.18
Gore 47.69 39% 91% 8% 1% 43.39 3.81 0.48
Bush 51.35 42% 9% 90% 0% 4.62 46.22 0.00
Other 4.89 4% 61% 12% 16% 2.98 0.59 0.78
Total 122.3 100% 51.01% 46.95% 1.18% 62.37 57.41 1.44
11027 Respondents
11/02 7:38pm
2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.79 17% 59% 39% 1% 12.26 8.11 0.21
Gore 46.46 38% 91% 8% 1% 42.28 3.72 0.46
Bush 50.13 41% 9% 90% 0% 4.51 45.12 0.00
Other 4.89 4% 65% 13% 16% 3.18 0.64 0.78
Total 122.3 100% 50.90% 47.09% 1.19% 62.24 57.58 1.46
13047 Respondents
11/03 12:22am
2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.79 17% 57% 41% 2% 11.85 8.52 0.42
Gore 47.69 39% 91% 8% 1% 43.39 3.81 0.48
Bush 50.13 41% 10% 90% 0% 5.01 45.12 0.00
Other 3.67 3% 71% 21% 8% 2.60 0.77 0.29
Total 122.3 100% 51.41% 47.62% 0.97% 62.86 58.22 1.19
Final
13660 Respondents
11/03 2:05pm
2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.79 17% 54% 45% 1% 11.22 9.35 0.21
Gore 45.24 37% 90% 10% 0% 40.72 4.52 0.00
Bush 52.58 43% 9% 91% 0% 4.73 47.84 0.00
Other 3.67 3% 71% 21% 8% 2.60 0.77 0.29
Total 122.3 100% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 59.28 62.49 0.50
2004 National Exit Poll Demographic Timeline
In order to match the recorded vote in the Final National Exit Poll ”How Voted in
2000” category, the exit pollsters had to adjust all category weights and/or vote
shares from the 12:22am update (which Kerry won by 51.4-47.6%).
Change: Category weight and/or Kerry vote share decline required to match the final
recorded vote
NEP Update 3:59pm 7:33pm 12:22am Final Weight 3:59pm 7:33pm 12:22am Final Vote
Respondents 8349 11027 13047 13660 Change 8349 11027 13047 13660 Change
Category Weight Kerry Vote Share
GENDER
Male 42 46 46 46 47 47 47 44 -3
Female 58 54 54 54 53 54 54 51 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.48 50.78 50.78 47.78
VOTE (mil) 61.72 62.08 62.08 58.42
REGION
East 23 22 22 22 58 58 58 56 -2
Midwest 25 26 26 26 50 50 50 48 -2
South 31 31 31 32 +1 44 45 45 42 -3
West 21 21 21 20 -1 53 53 53 50 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.61 50.84 50.84 48.24
VOTE 61.88 62.16 62.16 58.98
PARTY ID
Democrat 39 38 38 37 -1 90 90 90 89 -1
Republican 36 36 35 37 +2 7 7 7 6 -1
Independent 25 26 27 26 -1 52 52 52 49 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.62 50.24 50.69 47.89
VOTE 61.89 61.42 61.97 58.55
IDEOLOGY
Liberal 22 22 22 21 -1 86 87 86 85 -1
Moderate 45 45 45 45 58 57 57 54 -3
Conservative 33 33 33 34 +1 16 16 16 15 -1
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.3 50.07 49.85 47.25
VOTE 61.50 61.22 60.95 57.77
VOTED 2000
Did Not Vote 15 17 17 17 62 59 57 54 -3
Gore 39 38 39 37 -2 91 91 91 90 -1
Bush 42 41 41 43 +2 9 9 10 9 -1
Other 4 4 3 3 61 65 71 71
PCT 100 100 100 100 51.01 50.9 51.41 48.48
VOTE 62.36 62.23 62.85 59.27
WHEN DECIDED
Today 6 6 6 5 -1 52 54 53 52 -1
Last 3 Days 3 3 3 4 +1 50 54 53 55 +2
Last Week 2 2 2 2 48 48 48 48
Last Month 10 10 10 10 61 61 60 54 -6
Over 30 Days 79 79 79 79 50 50 50 46 -4
PCT 100 100 100 100 51.18 51.42 51.23 47.5
VOTE 62.57 62.87 62.63 58.07
EDUCATION
No High School 4 4 4 4 50 52 52 50 -2
High School Grad 22 22 22 22 50 51 51 47 -4
Some College 30 31 31 32 +1 48 47 47 46 -1
College Grad 26 26 26 26 48 49 48 46 -2
Post Grad 18 17 17 16 -1 58 58 58 55 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.32 50.34 50.21 47.82
VOTE 61.52 61.55 61.39 58.46
RACE/GENDER
White Male 33 36 36 36 40 41 41 37 -4
White Female 44 41 41 41 47 47 47 44 -3
Non-white Male 10 10 10 10 69 70 69 67 -2
Non-white Female 13 13 13 13 77 77 77 75 -2
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.79 51.04 50.94 47.81
VOTE 62.10 62.40 62.28 58.45
AGE
18-29 15 17 17 17 56 56 56 54 -2
30-44 27 27 29 29 48 49 49 46 -3
45-59 31 30 30 30 52 51 51 48 -3
60+ 27 26 24 24 48 48 48 46 -2
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.44 50.53 50.26 47.96
VOTE 61.67 61.78 61.47 58.64
INCOME
0-15k 9 9 9 8 -1 68 66 66 63 -3
15-30 15 15 15 15 59 59 59 57 -2
30-50 22 22 22 22 53 52 52 50 -2
50-75 22 23 23 23 46 45 45 43 -2
75-100 14 13 13 14 +1 49 49 49 45 -4
100-150 11 11 11 11 44 45 45 42 -3
150-200 4 4 4 4 45 47 47 42 -5
200+ 3 3 3 3 40 41 41 35 -6
PCT 100 100 100 100 51.45 51.01 51.01 48.13
VOTE 62.90 62.36 62.36 58.84
RELIGION
Protestant 53 53 53 53 43 43 43 40 -3
Catholic 27 27 27 27 50 50 50 47 -3
Jewish 3 3 3 3 77 77 77 74 -3
Other 7 7 7 7 76 75 75 74 -1
None 10 10 10 10 69 70 70 67 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.82 50.85 50.85 47.99
VOTE 62.13 62.17 62.17 58.67
MILITARY EXPERIENCE
Yes 18 18 18 18 43 43 43 41 -2
No 82 82 82 82 52 53 53 50 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.38 51.2 51.2 48.38
VOTE 61.59 62.60 62.60 59.15
Forcing the Final Exit Poll to match the Recorded vote
Naysayers were challenged in the Democratic Underground Game Thread to provide a
mathematically feasible and plausible Bush win scenario. In order to comply with the
rules of the “game”, they had to use feasible weights based on the recorded 2000 and
2004 vote, annual 0.87% mortality rate and estimated 95% turnout of 2000 voters.
They presented a spreadsheet to show a scenario for Bush to achieve his 3 million
“mandate”. In order to match the recorded vote, they had to adjust the Bush Final
NEP vote shares to implausible levels.
The Bush win scenario was based on the following assumptions:
1) One in 7 (14.63%) Gore 2000 voters defected to Bush in 2004.
The 12:22am NEP reported 8% (10% in the 2pm Final).
2) Kerry won just 52.90% of DNV (new voters and others who did not vote in 2000).
The NEP reported 57% (54% in the Final).
3) Just 7.20% of Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry.
The NEP reported 10% (9% in the Final).
On the other hand, the True Vote model, which used feasible weights and plausible
vote shares, determined that Kerry won a 7.7 million vote landslide by 52.6-46.4%.
The assumptions were:
1) 0.87% annual mortality
2) 95% turnout of Gore, Bush and Other 2000 voters in 2004
3) 125.74m total votes were cast (Census) in 2004
4) 12:22am NEP vote shares
True Vote Model Bush Win Scenario
Pct Kerry Bush Other Pct Kerry Bush Other
DNV 21.49% 57% 41% 2% 21.72% 52.90% 46.50% 0.60%
Gore 38.23% 91% 8% 1% 37.84% 84.83% 14.63% 0.54%
Bush 37.83% 10% 90% 0% 37.44% 7.20% 92.31% 0.49%
Other 2.45% 71% 21% 8% 3.00% 65.90% 18.10% 16.00%
Share 100.0% 52.56% 46.43% 1.01% 100.0% 48.26% 50.74% 1.00%
Votes Kerry Bush Other Votes Kerry Bush Other
DNV 27.02 15.40 11.08 0.54 26.56 14.05 12.35 0.16
Gore 48.07 43.74 3.85 0.48 46.28 39.26 6.77 0.25
Bush 47.57 4.76 42.81 0.00 45.79 3.30 42.27 0.22
Other 3.08 2.19 0.65 0.25 3.67 2.42 0.66 0.59
Total 125.74 66.09 58.38 1.27 122.30 59.02 62.05 1.22
Which scenario are we to believe: the implausible 14.63% Gore defection rate or
the mathematically impossible 43 Bush/ 37 Gore weights?
Was the exit poll match to the recorded vote based on a) plausible 37.84
Gore/37.44% Bush weights and an implausible 14.63% Gore defection rate or
b) impossible 43Bush/37% Gore weights and plausible (8-10%) Gore defection rate?
Because the 43 Bush/ 37 Gore weights contradicted the debunked reluctant Bush
responder (rBr) hypothesis, the naysayers needed to come up with another
explanation. They cited a post-election NES 600-sample survey to account for the
impossible Final Bush/Gore weights. But they wanted to have it both ways: On the one
hand, they claimed that the 43/37 weights were legitimate exit poll samples in
which Gore voters misstated their vote; but they contradicted that when they used
feasible weights applied to an implausible 14.6% Gore defection rate. But it was a
very weak argument because it implied that 6.6% of Gore voters (8.6% over the
12:22am NEP defection rate) misrepresented their vote when they told the exit
pollsters they voted for Bush in 2000.
They said the reason for the mass defection of Gore voters was due to a long-term
bandwagon effect: former Gore voters wanted to associate with the “winner”, Bush.
But “false recall” is not a plausible explanation since
a) Gore won by 540,000 votes,
b) 12:22am NEP had Kerry winning 91% of Gore voters and 10% of Bush voters,
c) Bush had a 48.5% approval rating on Election Day,
d) false recall is not applicable to pre-election polls and
e) the pre-election polls matched the exit polls.
Why would Gore voters want to be associated with Bush? Even if returning Gore voters
lied about their vote in 2000, it’s irrelevant. What is relevant is
a) their factual 2000 recorded Gore vote and
b) that 91% said they just voted for Kerry.
We use this factual data to compute feasible and plausible weights by adjusting the
2000 recorded vote for mortality and estimated 2004 turnout.
False recall cannot be used as an explanation to explain the other demographic
weightings. In the 12:22am NEP, 13047 respondents were asked who they just voted for
– and Kerry won. But only 3200 respondents were asked how they voted in 2000.
Kerry must have also won the 10,000 who were not asked how they voted in 2000. This
fact alone totally contradicts the “false recall” argument. Why would respondents
lie to the exit pollsters and claim to have voted for Kerry if they voted for Bush?
Did they also lie about their gender? Kerry won the Gender vote by 50.78-48.22%.
GENDER Weight Kerry Bush Other
Male 46% 47% 52% 1%
Female 54% 54% 45% 1%
Share 100% 50.78% 48.22% 1.00%
Votes 122.3 62.10 58.97 1.22
What is relevant is who the exit poll respondents said they just voted for in 2004
and 91% said Kerry. The 2000 and 2004 recorded vote and annual mortality rate are
historical demographic facts. They are necessary and sufficient to determine the
maximum number of Bush and Gore voters who could have voted in 2004. The final
realistic, plausible weighting is just the ratio of 2000 voter turnout to total 2004
recorded vote. The weights multiplied by the corresponding exit poll vote shares
determine the national share. Therefore, the only exit poll response which matters
is the answer to the question: Who did you vote for in 2004? It follows that even if
"false recall" were a factor, it is irrelevant. Voters do not falsely recall who
they just voted for five minutes earlier. What would be their motivation to lie?
Survey responses are confidential.
The Election Calculator Model calculates the True Vote for all elections since 1988.
For the 2004 election, the data consists of:
1) Census: 125.7m votes cast in 2004 vs. 122.3m recorded; 3.4m (2.74%) uncounted
2) Census: 110.8m votes cast in 2000 vs. 105.4m recorded; 5.4m (4.86%) uncounted
3) Annual voter mortality: 1.22% (4.88% over 4 years)
Assumptions:
1) 12:22am NEP vote shares
2) 2000 voter turnout in 2004: 95%
3) 75% of uncounted votes to Gore and Kerry
2000 Recorded
Voted Recd Unctd Cast Died Alive
Gore 51.00 4.04 55.04 2.72 52.32
Bush 50.46 1.08 51.53 2.48 49.06
Other 3.96 0.27 4.23 0.21 4.02
Total 105.42 5.38 110.8 5.41 105.39
2004 Calculated
Turnout Voted Weight Kerry Bush Other
DNV - 25.61 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 49.70 39.5% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 46.60 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 95% 3.82 3.0% 64% 17% 19%
Total 100.1 125.7 100% 53.23% 45.39% 1.38%
66.94 57.07 1.74
The 2006 Midterms
Except for the notorious 2006 FL-13 congressional race in which 18,000 mostly
Democratic votes were mysteriously missing, the evidence of massive fraud in the
midterm elections is hardly mentioned in the corporate media. But a Pew 2006
Election Analysis describes voting “anomalies” and computer “glitches” that
occurred in virtually every state. The fraud probably cost the Democrats 10-20
congressional seats.
The 2006 National Exit Poll “How Voted in 2004” weights were changed from 47 Bush/45
Kerry at 7pm to 49/43 in the Final NEP the following day. Once again, just like in
2004, the exit pollsters had to match the vote count by expanding the weight spread
from 2% to 6%! This had a major effect in cutting the Democratic margin in half,
from 55-43% to 52-46%. As noted earlier, the 2004 NEP 12:22am Bush/Gore 41/39 weights
were changed to 43/37 in the 2pm Final, turning a 51-48% Kerry victory into a 51-48% loss.
When plausible 49 Kerry/ 46 Bush weights (based on the 2004 NEP) are used, the
Democratic margin becomes 56.7-42.1%, exactly matching the 120 pre-election Generic
Poll trend line. Was this just a coincidence or another confirmation that the
pre-election polls matched the 7pm National Exit Poll?
The Democratic Tsunami won 31 congressional seats. But they actually did much better
than that. A regression trend analysis of 120 pre-election Generic polls (all won by
the Democrats) projected they would win by 56-42% and gain over 40 seats. The 7pm
National Exit Poll (55 Dem-43% Rep) confirmed the pre-election trend. But the next
day, the Final NEP was forced to match a corrupted vote count with implausible
weights and vote shares. The Democratic margin was cut in half to 52-46%. The fraud
resulted in the loss of 10-20 seats.
Generic Pre-election Poll Trend vs. the 7:07pm and Final National Exit Poll
To derive an approximation to the TRUE vote for all demographics, the 7pm NEP vote
shares and weights were adjusted to match a 57.8-40.2% Wikipedia Democratic vote
margin. The base case assumptions were: a) 4.0% of Democratic votes and 1.4% of
Republican/other votes were uncounted and b) 7% of Democratic votes were switched to
the Republicans.
The TRUE 16% Democratic margin was based on the 120-Generic poll linear trend which
was confirmed in the Wikipedia early vote count. It has always been the case that
millions of ballots, mostly Democratic, are never counted. In this election,
uncounted ballots accounted for less than half of the total discrepancy. The major
fraud factor was vote-switching at the polling place and/or the central tabulator.
The analysis does not include the millions of disenfranchised voters (mostly
Democratic) who never got to the polls. The Generic LV pre-election polls, as
one-sided as they were, low-balled the intended Democratic vote.
In both the 7:07pm and Final 1:00pm Exit Polls, the results were adjusted to obtain
an estimated TRUE vote. For each demographic, switched vote rates were applied to
final vote shares to determine pre-switch shares. Uncounted votes were subtracted
from the 7:07pm exit poll result. Unlike the Final, the 7:07pm poll was NOT matched
to the vote count. Uncounted and switched vote shares were added back to the Final
since it was contaminated in matching to the vote count.
The theoretical Intended Vote is given by:
IV = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched + Disenfranchised
The True Vote is given by:
TV = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched
National Exit Poll
Source..... Dem Rep Other
CNN-7pm 55.2% 43.4% 1.5%
CNN-Final 52.2% 45.9% 2.5%
NYT 53.1% 44.9% 2.0%
Reported National Vote
Wikipedia 57.7% 41.8% 0.5%
CBS- Nat 52.7% 45.1% 2.2%
CBS-State 51.3% 46.4% 2.3%
120 Generic Poll Linear Regression Trend
Dem Share = 46.98% + .0419x
Rep Share = 38.06% + .0047x
Substituting x = 120 and allocating 60% of the undecided vote (UVA) to the Democrats:
........ Trend + UVA = Projection
Dem = 52.01 + 4.42 = 56.43%
Rep = 38.62 + 2.95 = 41.57%
National Exit Poll Timeline vs. the True Vote (based on the Generic Poll Trend)
VOTED 2004
--------- 7:07pm ----------- -------------- Final -------- ------ True Generic Vote -----
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Kerry 45% 93% 6% 1% 43% 92% 7% 1% 49% 93% 6% 1%
Bush 47% 17% 82% 1% 49% 15% 83% 2% 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 4% 67% 23% 10% 4% 66% 23% 11% 1% 67% 23% 10%
DNV 4% 67% 30% 3% 4% 66% 32% 2% 4% 67% 30% 3%
TOTAL 100% 55.2% 43.4% 1.4% 100% 52.2% 45.9% 1.9% 100% 56.7% 42.1% 1.2%
Democratic Vote Share Sensitivity to NEP “How Voted in 2004” Weights
National Exit Poll (7pm)
Weight: DNV 4%; Other 4%
7pm
Kerry 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51%
Bush 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44% 43% 42% 41%
Dem 53.7% 54.4% 55.2% 56.0% 56.7% 57.5% 58.2% 59.0% 59.8%
Final National Exit Poll (1pm)
Weight: DNV 4%; Other 4%
1pm
Kerry 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51%
Bush 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44% 43% 42% 41%
Dem 52.2% 53.0% 53.7% 54.5% 55.3% 56.0% 56.8% 57.6% 58.4%
True Vote
Weight: DNV 4%; Other 1%
True
Kerry 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51%
Bush 52% 51% 50% 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44%
Dem 52.2% 52.9% 53.7% 54.5% 55.2% 56.0% 56.7% 57.5% 58.3%
TruthIsAll
Feb. 7, 2009
The distinction between unadjusted and adjusted Final National Exit Poll (NEP)is the
cause of much confusion and misinformation. The Final “contaminates” raw, unadjusted
polling data by forcing a match to the recorded vote. If the vote count
is fraudulent, simple logic dictates that the Final Exit Poll does not provide the
True Vote, but rather a corrupt one. Furthermore, all demographic category
crosstabs would also need to be adjusted and would result in misleading statistics.
This analysis will prove that in each of the 2004, 2006, 2008 elections, the Final
NEP used an impossible returning voter mix to match the recorded vote. Therefore,
the recorded vote also had to be impossible. It overstated the Republican vote share
(and understated the Democratic share) by 3-4% in each election.
Media pundits (even those on the left) always make the same claim: that the early
exit polls are wrong since they don’t match the recorded vote. But they don’t even
mention the possibility that Election Fraud may be the reason for the
discrepancies. They never considered the possibility that the recorded vote may
have been miscounted and therefore the preliminary exit polls were essentially
correct. They assumed the count was accurate. Pundits who should know better then
catapulted the propaganda by stating that the final exit poll confirmed the vote
count. In so doing, they continue to promote the myth that the elections are
fraud-free. And they have done so in every election since 2004.
They dismiss the accuracy of the early exit polls, claiming they were not designed
to predict the True Vote but just to provide a demographic snapshot of the
electorate. But if that’s the case, and the recorded vote count is corrupted, then
so are the demographics. They never did the analysis that would have proved that the
returning voter weights Final NEP were impossible. If they had, they would have
come to the same conclusion as the spreadsheet-wielding bloggers: the reported vote
counts were impossible (view the spreadsheet analysis below).
It’s standard operating procedure for exit pollsters to force the final state and
national exit polls to match the recorded vote - even if it means using impossible
weights and implausible vote shares. The procedure assumes a fraud-free election–
not exactly a reality-based assumption.
Apart from the Final National Exit Poll, there is a mountain of documented evidence
to suggest that the 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections were fraudulent. Since the final
state and national exit polls were forced to match the official results, a serious
analyst would focus on the changes in vote shares and weights from the unadjusted,
“pristine” exit polls that were required. But serious analysts of election fraud are
still maligned by the main-stream media and others who frequent election forums with
an obvious agenda: to hide the truth about election fraud from the public.
2008
The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote Obama by
69.4-59.9 million (52.9-45.6%). It indicates that returning Bush 2004 voters
comprised 46% (60.4m) of the 131.37 million voters in 2008. Bush won by 62.0-59.0
million recorded votes in 2004. Approximately 3.0m (4.8%) died, therefore at most
59.0m Bush voters returned in 2008. Assuming that 3.0m did not vote (95% turnout),
there were 4 million more returning Bush voters than could have voted. The returning
voter mix implies that Bush won by 52.9-42.5%. But the actual recorded vote share
was Bush 50.73- Kerry 48.27%.
The Final also indicates that returning Kerry voters comprised just 37% (48.4m) of
the 2008 electorate. Kerry had 59.0 million recorded votes in 2004. How could there
have been 11.7 million more returning Bush voters than Kerry voters? Bush won by
just 3.0 million votes. One would expect that Kerry voters would be more motivated
to vote for Obama than Bush voters for McCain.
If the 2004 unadjusted state exit polls are to be believed, Kerry won by 52-47%
63.6-57.5m). Assuming a 5% voter mortality rate, 54.6m Bush voters were alive in
2008. If 51.9m (95%) voted in 2008, the 2008 Final NEP inflated the number of
returning Bush voters by 8.5 million.
The Final also indicated that third-party 2004 voters comprised 4% of the 2008
electorate – another impossibility. There were only 1.22m third party voters in 2004
(1% of the total).
The Final is impossible. And because it was forced to match the recorded
vote, the 2008 recorded vote must also have been impossible.
Given:
a) 95% turnout of 2004 voters still living in 2008
b) 2008 NEP shares of returning and new voters
then if
1. The 2004 election was fraud-free and Bush won by his recorded 2.5% margin,
Obama won by 17.6 million votes – an 8 million increase over his recorded margin.
2. The 2004 election was fraudulent and Kerry won by the unadjusted exit poll 5%
margin,
Obama won by 22.6 million votes – a 13 million increase over his recorded margin.
2004
The 12:22am NEP “Voted 2000” category indicated that Bush 2000 voters comprised 41%
of the 2004 electorate and Gore voters 39%. Kerry was a 51-48% winner. But in the
Final NEP, the weights were adjusted to 43% and 37% – to match the Bush 51-48%
margin. The 4% increase in the spread between Gore and Bush voters was a major
component of the reversal.
John Kerry held a steady 51-48% lead throughout the National Exit Poll timeline: at
4pm (8349 respondents); 7:30pm (11027); 12:22am (13047) - after the polls closed.
But of course Bush won the Final NEP by 51-48% (13660 respondents). The Final was
posted the day after the election and was forced to match the Recorded Vote count by
using impossible weights and implausible vote shares.
The impossible 46/37 Bush/Kerry returning voter mix in the Final 2008 NEP is nothing
new. The Bush 43% share was mathematically and physically impossible since it meant
that Bush had 52.6 million votes in 2000; he had just 50.5 million. Approximately
2.5 million died. Therefore, only 48m former Bush voters were alive in 2004.
Therefore, the 2004 Final overstated the number of returning Bush 2000 voters by
more than 4.5 million.
In 2004, the difference between the calculated vote and recorded vote margin was
also 13 million. The Election Calculator determined that Kerry won the True Vote by
67-57m. A feasible returning voter mix was based on a 2000 voter annual mortality
rate of 1.22% and an assumed 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am
(Composite) vote shares were used rather than the Final NEP shares. The reason: the
Final 2004 NEP Bush vote shares were inflated, along with the 2000 Bush returning
voter mix, to force a match to the recorded vote.
2006 midterms
At 7pm, the Bush/Kerry NEP returning voter mix was 47/45%. It was changed to 49/43%
in the Final. Once again, the exit pollsters had to match the vote count by
increasing the spread 4%! This had a major effect in reducing the Democratic margin
from 55-43% at 7pm to 52-46% in the Final.
The Democratic Tsunami gained 31 congressional seats. But they actually did much
better than that. A regression trend analysis of 120 pre-election Generic polls (all
won by the Democrats) projected they would win by 56-42% and gain over 40 seats. The
7pm National Exit Poll confirmed the pre-election trend. But the next day, the Final
NEP was once again forced to match a corrupted vote count with implausible weights
and vote shares. The Democratic margin was cut in half. The fraud resulted in the
loss of 10-20 seats.
The 2008 Election Calculator – a plausible return voter mix
The Election Calculator used Final 2008 NEP vote shares but not the impossible NEP
return voter mix.
The first scenario assumed the recorded 2004 vote to determine the returning voter
mix (Bush by 50.73-48.27%).
Obama won this (unlikely) scenario by 17.6 million votes – an 8 million increase
over his recorded margin.
The second scenario used the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (Kerry by 52-47%).
Obama won this (most likely) scenario by 22.6 million - a 13 million increase over
his recorded margin.
____________________________________________________________________________
2008 Final National Exit Poll
Implied 2004 Total Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
Vote DNV 17.08 13% 71% 27% 2% 12.1 4.6 0.3
42.5% Kerry 48.61 37% 89% 9% 2% 43.3 4.4 1.0
52.9% Bush 60.43 46% 17% 82% 1% 10.3 49.6 0.6
4.6% Other 5.25 4% 66% 24% 10% 3.5 1.3 0.5
114.3 Total 131.37 100% 52.62% 45.52% 1.86% 69.13 59.80 2.44
Election Calculator Model
Scenario 1: 2004 returning voter mix based on the recorded 2004 vote adjusted for
2004 voters: 3.45 million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality, 95% turnout; 3.0%
uncounted in 2008
a) Obama wins by 17.6m: 75.4-57.8 (55.7-42.7%) assuming 4.0m uncounted votes (3.0%
of 135.4m cast).
b) Obama wins by 15.8m: 72.5-56.7 (55.2-43.1%) assuming no uncounted votes.
Actual 2004 Total Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
Vote DNV 21.71 16.0% 71% 27% 2% 15.4 5.9 0.4
48.27% Kerry 55.72 41.1% 89% 9% 2% 49.6 5.0 1.1
50.73% Bush 56.86 42.0% 17% 82% 1% 9.7 46.6 0.6
1.00% Other 1.14 0.8% 66% 24% 10% 0.8 0.3 0.1
Total 135.43 100.0% 55.69% 42.66% 1.65% 75.43 57.77 2.23
Scenario 2: 2004 returning voter mix based on the unadjusted 2004 exit poll shares
adjusted for
2004 voters: 3.45 million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality, 95% turnout; 3.0%
uncounted in 2008
a) Obama wins by 22.6m: 77.9-55.3 (57.5-40.8%) assuming 4.0m uncounted votes.
b) Obama wins by 20.8m: 75.0-54.2 (57.1-41.3%) assuming no uncounted votes.
Unadj 2004 Total Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
ExitP DNV 21.71 16.0% 71% 27% 2% 15.4 5.9 0.43
52.0% Kerry 59.13 43.7% 89% 9% 2% 52.6 5.3 1.18
47.0% Bush 53.44 39.5% 17% 82% 1% 9.1 43.8 0.53
1.0% Other 1.14 0.8% 66% 24% 10% 0.8 0.3 0.11
Total 135.43 100% 57.51% 40.82% 1.67% 77.88 55.28 2.27
____________________________________________________________________________
2004 Final National Exit Poll
13660 Respondents
11/03 2:05pm
2000 Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.79 17% 54% 45% 1% 11.22 9.35 0.21
Gore 45.24 37% 90% 10% 0% 40.72 4.52 0.00
Bush 52.58 43% 9% 91% 0% 4.73 47.84 0.00
Other 3.67 3% 71% 21% 8% 2.60 0.77 0.29
Total 122.3 100% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 59.28 62.49 0.50
Preliminary
13047 Respondents
11/03 12:22am
2000 Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.79 17% 57% 41% 2% 11.85 8.52 0.42
Gore 47.69 39% 91% 8% 1% 43.39 3.81 0.48
Bush 50.13 41% 10% 90% 0% 5.01 45.12 0.00
Other 3.67 3% 71% 21% 8% 2.60 0.77 0.29
Total 122.3 100% 51.41% 47.62% 0.97% 62.86 58.22 1.19
Election Calculator True Vote Model
Returning voter mix based on the recorded 2000 vote adjusted for 5.4 million
uncounted votes, 4.8% mortality, 95% turnout of living 2000 voters in 2004;
3.45m uncounted votes in 2004 (125.7m cast)
Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - 25.61 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 49.70 39.5% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 46.60 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 95% 3.82 3.0% 64% 17% 19%
Total 100.1 125.7 100% 53.23% 45.39% 1.38%
66.94 57.07 1.74
____________________________________________________________________________
The 2006 National Exit Poll
--------- 7:07pm ----------- -------------- Final -------- ------ True Generic Vote -----
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Kerry 45% 93% 6% 1% 43% 92% 7% 1% 49% 93% 6% 1%
Bush 47% 17% 82% 1% 49% 15% 83% 2% 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 4% 67% 23% 10% 4% 66% 23% 11% 1% 67% 23% 10%
DNV 4% 67% 30% 3% 4% 66% 32% 2% 4% 67% 30% 3%
TOTAL 100% 55.2% 43.4% 1.4% 100% 52.2% 45.9% 1.9% 100% 56.7% 42.1% 1.2%
____________________________________________________________________________
The 2004 State Exit Poll Aggregate Timeline
Edison-Mitofsky provided four aggregate state exit poll measures.
Kerry won the first three; Bush won the Final:
1) WPE 51.8-47.2% (unadjusted)
2) GEO 51.0-48.5% (adjusted to incoming recorded votes)
3) Composite 50.3-49.1% (12:22am-adjusted to pre-election polls)
4) Final 48.5-51.1% (matched to recorded vote)
WPE is the only unadjusted (“pristine”) method. It is based on the average
discrepancy between the exit poll result and recorded vote for all precincts polled
in the state. Measures (2) and (3) are adjusted estimates which incorporate
pre-election polls and recorded votes. The final state exit polls were forced to
match the recorded votes, therefore implying ZERO election fraud. Why should we
believe them? And why bother doing exit polls at all if they will just assume that
the recorded vote count was the True Vote?
Edison-Mitofsky Exit Poll Timeline
RECORDED VOTE WPE (WITHIN PRECINCT ERROR) BEST GEO COMPOSITE
http://www.exitpollz.org/ 12:40am
Kerry Bush Margin EV Kerry Bush Margin WPE EV Kerry Bush Margin Error EV Kerry Bush Margin Error EV
Total 48.27 50.73 (2.46) 251 51.84 47.18 4.7 7.11 324 51.04 48.49 2.56 5.01 301 50.26 49.11 1.15 3.60 288
AL 36.8 62.5 (25.6) 42.5 56.8 (14.3) 11.3 42.0 57.5 (15.5) 10.1 40.6 58.7 (18.1) 7.5
AK 35.5 61.1 (25.5) 40.3 56.3 (15.9) 9.6 41.2 57.4 (16.2) 9.3 39.0 58.8 (19.8) 5.7
AZ 44.4 54.9 (10.5) 46.7 52.6 (5.9) 4.6 46.5 53.5 (7.0) 3.5 46.8 53.2 (6.4) 4.1
AR 44.5 54.3 (9.8) 44.8 54.1 (9.3) 0.5 46.8 52.4 (5.6) 4.2 47.0 52.2 (5.2) 4.6
CA 54.3 44.4 9.9 55 59.8 38.9 20.8 10.9 55 56.5 43.5 13.0 3.1 55 56.5 43.5 13.0 3.1 55
CO 47.0 51.7 (4.7) 50.1 48.6 1.4 6.1 9 47.0 52.5 (5.5) (0.8) 47.7 51.4 (3.7) 1.0
CT 54.3 43.9 10.4 7 62.2 36.1 26.1 15.7 7 59.3 39.6 19.7 9.3 7 58.1 40.5 17.6 7.2 7
DE 53.3 45.8 7.6 3 61.3 37.8 23.5 15.9 3 61.5 37.9 23.6 16.0 3 57.7 41.2 16.5 8.9 3
DC 89.2 9.3 79.8 3 90.9 7.6 83.2 3.4 3 91.1 8.1 83.0 3.2 3 90.2 8.4 81.8 2.0 3
FL 47.1 52.1 (5.0) 50.9 48.3 2.6 7.6 27 49.2 50.3 (1.1) 3.9 49.3 50.1 (0.8) 4.2
GA 41.4 58.0 (16.6) 42.5 56.9 (14.4) 2.2 43.5 56.5 (13.0) 3.6 43.0 57.1 (14.1) 2.5
HI 54.0 45.3 8.7 4 56.4 42.9 13.4 4.7 4 56.5 43.4 13.1 4.4 4 53.6 46.4 7.2 (1.5) 4
ID 30.3 68.4 (38.1) 30.8 67.9 (37.1) 1.0 30.9 69.1 (38.2) (0.1) 31.6 68.3 (36.7) 1.4
IL 54.8 44.5 10.3 21 57.0 42.3 14.7 4.4 21 57.5 42.6 14.9 4.6 21 57.0 42.9 14.1 3.8 21
IN 39.3 59.9 (20.7) 40.0 59.2 (19.2) 1.5 40.5 59.6 (19.1) 1.6 41.3 58.8 (17.5) 3.2
IA 49.2 49.9 (0.7) 50.7 48.4 2.3 3.0 7 50.0 49.0 1.0 1.7 7 50.0 49.0 1.0 1.7 7
KS 36.6 62.0 (25.4) 37.5 61.2 (23.7) 1.7 36.6 62.8 (26.2) (0.8) 34.4 64.6 (30.2) (4.8)
KY 39.7 59.6 (19.9) 39.6 59.6 (20.0) (0.1) 40.6 58.6 (18.0) 1.9 40.9 58.3 (17.4) 2.5
LA 42.2 56.7 (14.5) 44.1 54.8 (10.7) 3.8 43.2 56.3 (13.1) 1.4 44.3 54.8 (10.5) 4.0
ME 53.6 44.6 9.0 4 55.5 42.7 12.8 3.8 4 54.3 44.6 9.7 0.7 4 53.9 44.4 9.5 0.5 4
MD 55.9 42.9 13.0 10 60.0 38.9 21.1 8.1 10 59.4 39.7 19.7 6.7 10 56.6 42.5 14.1 1.1 10
MA 61.9 36.8 25.2 12 64.8 33.9 31.0 5.8 12 66.3 33.6 32.7 7.5 12 65.7 34.2 31.5 6.3 12
MI 51.2 47.8 3.4 17 54.4 44.7 9.7 6.3 17 51.8 47.3 4.5 1.1 17 51.9 47.1 4.8 1.4 17
MN 51.1 47.6 3.5 9 55.7 43.0 12.8 9.3 9 56.7 42.4 14.3 10.8 9 53.7 44.9 8.8 5.3 9
MS 40.2 59.0 (18.9) 45.8 53.4 (7.6) 11.3 46.2 53.2 (7.0) 11.9 43.4 56.0 (12.6) 6.3
MO 46.1 53.3 (7.2) 49.0 50.4 (1.4) 5.8 47.8 52.2 (4.4) 2.8 47.8 52.1 (4.3) 2.9
MT 38.6 59.1 (20.5) 37.7 60.0 (22.3) (1.8) 37.8 59.9 (22.1) (1.6) 37.2 60.0 (22.8) (2.3)
NE 32.7 65.9 (33.2) 36.7 61.8 (25.1) 8.1 37.5 61.7 (24.2) 9.0 36.1 62.6 (26.5) 6.7
NV 47.9 50.5 (2.6) 52.9 45.4 7.5 10.1 5 49.3 47.9 1.4 4.0 5 48.9 48.3 0.6 3.2 5
NH 50.2 48.9 1.4 4 57.0 42.1 15.0 13.6 4 57.1 42.1 15.0 13.6 4 55.1 43.9 11.2 9.8 4
NJ 52.9 46.2 6.7 15 57.8 41.4 16.4 9.7 15 58.4 40.2 18.2 11.5 15 55.3 42.8 12.5 5.8 15
NM 49.0 49.8 (0.8) 52.9 45.9 7.0 7.8 5 51.7 47.5 4.2 5.0 5 50.8 48.0 2.8 3.6 5
NY 58.4 40.1 18.3 31 64.1 34.4 29.7 11.4 31 65.1 33.8 31.3 13.0 31 63.1 35.5 27.6 9.3 31
NC 43.6 56.0 (12.4) 49.2 50.4 (1.1) 11.3 48.2 51.8 (3.6) 8.8 48.1 51.9 (3.8) 8.6
ND 35.5 62.9 (27.4) 32.9 65.5 (32.6) (5.2) 32.3 66.7 (34.4) (7.0) 33.3 64.9 (31.6) (4.2)
OH 48.7 50.8 (2.1) 54.2 45.4 8.8 10.9 20 53.2 46.7 6.5 8.6 20 51.7 48.3 3.4 5.5 20
OK 34.4 65.6 (31.1) 33.5 66.5 (33.0) (1.9) 34.1 65.8 (31.7) (0.6) 34.6 65.4 (30.8) 0.3
OR 51.3 47.2 4.2 7 53.0 47.0 6.0 1.8 7 53.0 47.0 6.0 1.8 7 50.3 47.9 2.4 (1.8) 7
PA 50.9 48.4 2.5 21 55.3 44.0 11.3 8.8 21 56.9 43.1 13.8 11.3 21 54.2 45.7 8.5 6.0 21
RI 59.4 38.7 20.8 4 61.8 36.3 25.5 4.7 4 62.4 36.3 26.1 5.3 4 63.2 34.9 28.3 7.5 4
SC 40.9 58.0 (17.1) 45.9 53.0 (7.1) 10.0 46.4 52.4 (6.0) 11.1 45.1 53.8 (8.7) 8.4
SD 38.4 59.9 (21.5) 36.3 62.0 (25.7) (4.2) 34.9 63.2 (28.3) (6.8) 36.8 61.5 (24.7) (3.2)
TN 42.5 56.8 (14.3) 42.8 56.5 (13.8) 0.5 40.3 58.5 (18.2) (3.9) 41.3 57.6 (16.3) (2.0)
TX 38.2 61.1 (22.9) 40.6 58.7 (18.1) 4.8 36.5 63.5 (27.0) (4.1) 37.1 62.9 (25.8) (2.9)
UT 26.0 71.5 (45.5) 29.2 68.3 (39.1) 6.4 29.9 69.2 (39.3) 6.2 29.9 68.3 (38.4) 7.1
VT 58.9 38.8 20.1 3 66.4 31.3 35.1 15.0 3 67.0 30.4 36.6 16.5 3 64.5 32.8 31.7 11.6 3
VA 45.5 53.7 (8.2) 49.4 49.7 (0.3) 7.9 50.2 49.7 0.5 8.7 13 48.0 51.9 (3.9) 4.3
WA 52.8 45.6 7.2 11 57.0 41.4 15.6 8.4 11 54.9 44.2 10.7 3.5 11 54.1 44.6 9.5 2.3 11
WV 43.2 56.1 (12.9) 40.3 59.0 (18.7) (5.8) 41.6 57.4 (15.8) (2.9) 44.9 54.2 (9.3) 3.6
WI 49.7 49.3 0.4 10 52.0 47.0 5.1 4.7 10 52.5 46.8 5.7 5.3 10 49.6 49.2 0.4 0.0 10
WY 29.1 68.9 (39.8) 31.2 66.7 (35.5) 4.3 34.5 63.6 (29.1) 10.7 31.6 66.4 (34.8) 5.0
2004 National Exit Poll
Kerry won the 12:22am National Exit Poll (13047 respondents) by a 4.6m vote margin.
Bush won the Final National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) by a 3.2m margin.
Final recorded vote (mil.)
Kerry Bush Other
59.03 62.04 1.23
48.27% 50.73% 1.01%
National Exit Poll
Voted 2000 Category
Timeline Summary
NEP Sample Poll Kerry Vote
Timeline Size MoE Share Margin
3:59pm 8349 1.29% 51.01% 4.96 million
7:38pm 11027 1.12% 50.90% 4.66
12:22am 13047 1.03% 51.41% 4.63
Final 13660 1.01% 48.48% -3.22
8349 Respondents
11/02 3:59pm Vote Shares Votes (in millions)
2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 18.34 15% 62% 37% 1% 11.37 6.79 0.18
Gore 47.69 39% 91% 8% 1% 43.39 3.81 0.48
Bush 51.35 42% 9% 90% 0% 4.62 46.22 0.00
Other 4.89 4% 61% 12% 16% 2.98 0.59 0.78
Total 122.3 100% 51.01% 46.95% 1.18% 62.37 57.41 1.44
11027 Respondents
11/02 7:38pm
2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.79 17% 59% 39% 1% 12.26 8.11 0.21
Gore 46.46 38% 91% 8% 1% 42.28 3.72 0.46
Bush 50.13 41% 9% 90% 0% 4.51 45.12 0.00
Other 4.89 4% 65% 13% 16% 3.18 0.64 0.78
Total 122.3 100% 50.90% 47.09% 1.19% 62.24 57.58 1.46
13047 Respondents
11/03 12:22am
2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.79 17% 57% 41% 2% 11.85 8.52 0.42
Gore 47.69 39% 91% 8% 1% 43.39 3.81 0.48
Bush 50.13 41% 10% 90% 0% 5.01 45.12 0.00
Other 3.67 3% 71% 21% 8% 2.60 0.77 0.29
Total 122.3 100% 51.41% 47.62% 0.97% 62.86 58.22 1.19
Final
13660 Respondents
11/03 2:05pm
2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.79 17% 54% 45% 1% 11.22 9.35 0.21
Gore 45.24 37% 90% 10% 0% 40.72 4.52 0.00
Bush 52.58 43% 9% 91% 0% 4.73 47.84 0.00
Other 3.67 3% 71% 21% 8% 2.60 0.77 0.29
Total 122.3 100% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 59.28 62.49 0.50
2004 National Exit Poll Demographic Timeline
In order to match the recorded vote in the Final National Exit Poll ”How Voted in
2000” category, the exit pollsters had to adjust all category weights and/or vote
shares from the 12:22am update (which Kerry won by 51.4-47.6%).
Change: Category weight and/or Kerry vote share decline required to match the final
recorded vote
NEP Update 3:59pm 7:33pm 12:22am Final Weight 3:59pm 7:33pm 12:22am Final Vote
Respondents 8349 11027 13047 13660 Change 8349 11027 13047 13660 Change
Category Weight Kerry Vote Share
GENDER
Male 42 46 46 46 47 47 47 44 -3
Female 58 54 54 54 53 54 54 51 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.48 50.78 50.78 47.78
VOTE (mil) 61.72 62.08 62.08 58.42
REGION
East 23 22 22 22 58 58 58 56 -2
Midwest 25 26 26 26 50 50 50 48 -2
South 31 31 31 32 +1 44 45 45 42 -3
West 21 21 21 20 -1 53 53 53 50 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.61 50.84 50.84 48.24
VOTE 61.88 62.16 62.16 58.98
PARTY ID
Democrat 39 38 38 37 -1 90 90 90 89 -1
Republican 36 36 35 37 +2 7 7 7 6 -1
Independent 25 26 27 26 -1 52 52 52 49 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.62 50.24 50.69 47.89
VOTE 61.89 61.42 61.97 58.55
IDEOLOGY
Liberal 22 22 22 21 -1 86 87 86 85 -1
Moderate 45 45 45 45 58 57 57 54 -3
Conservative 33 33 33 34 +1 16 16 16 15 -1
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.3 50.07 49.85 47.25
VOTE 61.50 61.22 60.95 57.77
VOTED 2000
Did Not Vote 15 17 17 17 62 59 57 54 -3
Gore 39 38 39 37 -2 91 91 91 90 -1
Bush 42 41 41 43 +2 9 9 10 9 -1
Other 4 4 3 3 61 65 71 71
PCT 100 100 100 100 51.01 50.9 51.41 48.48
VOTE 62.36 62.23 62.85 59.27
WHEN DECIDED
Today 6 6 6 5 -1 52 54 53 52 -1
Last 3 Days 3 3 3 4 +1 50 54 53 55 +2
Last Week 2 2 2 2 48 48 48 48
Last Month 10 10 10 10 61 61 60 54 -6
Over 30 Days 79 79 79 79 50 50 50 46 -4
PCT 100 100 100 100 51.18 51.42 51.23 47.5
VOTE 62.57 62.87 62.63 58.07
EDUCATION
No High School 4 4 4 4 50 52 52 50 -2
High School Grad 22 22 22 22 50 51 51 47 -4
Some College 30 31 31 32 +1 48 47 47 46 -1
College Grad 26 26 26 26 48 49 48 46 -2
Post Grad 18 17 17 16 -1 58 58 58 55 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.32 50.34 50.21 47.82
VOTE 61.52 61.55 61.39 58.46
RACE/GENDER
White Male 33 36 36 36 40 41 41 37 -4
White Female 44 41 41 41 47 47 47 44 -3
Non-white Male 10 10 10 10 69 70 69 67 -2
Non-white Female 13 13 13 13 77 77 77 75 -2
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.79 51.04 50.94 47.81
VOTE 62.10 62.40 62.28 58.45
AGE
18-29 15 17 17 17 56 56 56 54 -2
30-44 27 27 29 29 48 49 49 46 -3
45-59 31 30 30 30 52 51 51 48 -3
60+ 27 26 24 24 48 48 48 46 -2
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.44 50.53 50.26 47.96
VOTE 61.67 61.78 61.47 58.64
INCOME
0-15k 9 9 9 8 -1 68 66 66 63 -3
15-30 15 15 15 15 59 59 59 57 -2
30-50 22 22 22 22 53 52 52 50 -2
50-75 22 23 23 23 46 45 45 43 -2
75-100 14 13 13 14 +1 49 49 49 45 -4
100-150 11 11 11 11 44 45 45 42 -3
150-200 4 4 4 4 45 47 47 42 -5
200+ 3 3 3 3 40 41 41 35 -6
PCT 100 100 100 100 51.45 51.01 51.01 48.13
VOTE 62.90 62.36 62.36 58.84
RELIGION
Protestant 53 53 53 53 43 43 43 40 -3
Catholic 27 27 27 27 50 50 50 47 -3
Jewish 3 3 3 3 77 77 77 74 -3
Other 7 7 7 7 76 75 75 74 -1
None 10 10 10 10 69 70 70 67 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.82 50.85 50.85 47.99
VOTE 62.13 62.17 62.17 58.67
MILITARY EXPERIENCE
Yes 18 18 18 18 43 43 43 41 -2
No 82 82 82 82 52 53 53 50 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.38 51.2 51.2 48.38
VOTE 61.59 62.60 62.60 59.15
Forcing the Final Exit Poll to match the Recorded vote
Naysayers were challenged in the Democratic Underground Game Thread to provide a
mathematically feasible and plausible Bush win scenario. In order to comply with the
rules of the “game”, they had to use feasible weights based on the recorded 2000 and
2004 vote, annual 0.87% mortality rate and estimated 95% turnout of 2000 voters.
They presented a spreadsheet to show a scenario for Bush to achieve his 3 million
“mandate”. In order to match the recorded vote, they had to adjust the Bush Final
NEP vote shares to implausible levels.
The Bush win scenario was based on the following assumptions:
1) One in 7 (14.63%) Gore 2000 voters defected to Bush in 2004.
The 12:22am NEP reported 8% (10% in the 2pm Final).
2) Kerry won just 52.90% of DNV (new voters and others who did not vote in 2000).
The NEP reported 57% (54% in the Final).
3) Just 7.20% of Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry.
The NEP reported 10% (9% in the Final).
On the other hand, the True Vote model, which used feasible weights and plausible
vote shares, determined that Kerry won a 7.7 million vote landslide by 52.6-46.4%.
The assumptions were:
1) 0.87% annual mortality
2) 95% turnout of Gore, Bush and Other 2000 voters in 2004
3) 125.74m total votes were cast (Census) in 2004
4) 12:22am NEP vote shares
True Vote Model Bush Win Scenario
Pct Kerry Bush Other Pct Kerry Bush Other
DNV 21.49% 57% 41% 2% 21.72% 52.90% 46.50% 0.60%
Gore 38.23% 91% 8% 1% 37.84% 84.83% 14.63% 0.54%
Bush 37.83% 10% 90% 0% 37.44% 7.20% 92.31% 0.49%
Other 2.45% 71% 21% 8% 3.00% 65.90% 18.10% 16.00%
Share 100.0% 52.56% 46.43% 1.01% 100.0% 48.26% 50.74% 1.00%
Votes Kerry Bush Other Votes Kerry Bush Other
DNV 27.02 15.40 11.08 0.54 26.56 14.05 12.35 0.16
Gore 48.07 43.74 3.85 0.48 46.28 39.26 6.77 0.25
Bush 47.57 4.76 42.81 0.00 45.79 3.30 42.27 0.22
Other 3.08 2.19 0.65 0.25 3.67 2.42 0.66 0.59
Total 125.74 66.09 58.38 1.27 122.30 59.02 62.05 1.22
Which scenario are we to believe: the implausible 14.63% Gore defection rate or
the mathematically impossible 43 Bush/ 37 Gore weights?
Was the exit poll match to the recorded vote based on a) plausible 37.84
Gore/37.44% Bush weights and an implausible 14.63% Gore defection rate or
b) impossible 43Bush/37% Gore weights and plausible (8-10%) Gore defection rate?
Because the 43 Bush/ 37 Gore weights contradicted the debunked reluctant Bush
responder (rBr) hypothesis, the naysayers needed to come up with another
explanation. They cited a post-election NES 600-sample survey to account for the
impossible Final Bush/Gore weights. But they wanted to have it both ways: On the one
hand, they claimed that the 43/37 weights were legitimate exit poll samples in
which Gore voters misstated their vote; but they contradicted that when they used
feasible weights applied to an implausible 14.6% Gore defection rate. But it was a
very weak argument because it implied that 6.6% of Gore voters (8.6% over the
12:22am NEP defection rate) misrepresented their vote when they told the exit
pollsters they voted for Bush in 2000.
They said the reason for the mass defection of Gore voters was due to a long-term
bandwagon effect: former Gore voters wanted to associate with the “winner”, Bush.
But “false recall” is not a plausible explanation since
a) Gore won by 540,000 votes,
b) 12:22am NEP had Kerry winning 91% of Gore voters and 10% of Bush voters,
c) Bush had a 48.5% approval rating on Election Day,
d) false recall is not applicable to pre-election polls and
e) the pre-election polls matched the exit polls.
Why would Gore voters want to be associated with Bush? Even if returning Gore voters
lied about their vote in 2000, it’s irrelevant. What is relevant is
a) their factual 2000 recorded Gore vote and
b) that 91% said they just voted for Kerry.
We use this factual data to compute feasible and plausible weights by adjusting the
2000 recorded vote for mortality and estimated 2004 turnout.
False recall cannot be used as an explanation to explain the other demographic
weightings. In the 12:22am NEP, 13047 respondents were asked who they just voted for
– and Kerry won. But only 3200 respondents were asked how they voted in 2000.
Kerry must have also won the 10,000 who were not asked how they voted in 2000. This
fact alone totally contradicts the “false recall” argument. Why would respondents
lie to the exit pollsters and claim to have voted for Kerry if they voted for Bush?
Did they also lie about their gender? Kerry won the Gender vote by 50.78-48.22%.
GENDER Weight Kerry Bush Other
Male 46% 47% 52% 1%
Female 54% 54% 45% 1%
Share 100% 50.78% 48.22% 1.00%
Votes 122.3 62.10 58.97 1.22
What is relevant is who the exit poll respondents said they just voted for in 2004
and 91% said Kerry. The 2000 and 2004 recorded vote and annual mortality rate are
historical demographic facts. They are necessary and sufficient to determine the
maximum number of Bush and Gore voters who could have voted in 2004. The final
realistic, plausible weighting is just the ratio of 2000 voter turnout to total 2004
recorded vote. The weights multiplied by the corresponding exit poll vote shares
determine the national share. Therefore, the only exit poll response which matters
is the answer to the question: Who did you vote for in 2004? It follows that even if
"false recall" were a factor, it is irrelevant. Voters do not falsely recall who
they just voted for five minutes earlier. What would be their motivation to lie?
Survey responses are confidential.
The Election Calculator Model calculates the True Vote for all elections since 1988.
For the 2004 election, the data consists of:
1) Census: 125.7m votes cast in 2004 vs. 122.3m recorded; 3.4m (2.74%) uncounted
2) Census: 110.8m votes cast in 2000 vs. 105.4m recorded; 5.4m (4.86%) uncounted
3) Annual voter mortality: 1.22% (4.88% over 4 years)
Assumptions:
1) 12:22am NEP vote shares
2) 2000 voter turnout in 2004: 95%
3) 75% of uncounted votes to Gore and Kerry
2000 Recorded
Voted Recd Unctd Cast Died Alive
Gore 51.00 4.04 55.04 2.72 52.32
Bush 50.46 1.08 51.53 2.48 49.06
Other 3.96 0.27 4.23 0.21 4.02
Total 105.42 5.38 110.8 5.41 105.39
2004 Calculated
Turnout Voted Weight Kerry Bush Other
DNV - 25.61 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 49.70 39.5% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 46.60 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 95% 3.82 3.0% 64% 17% 19%
Total 100.1 125.7 100% 53.23% 45.39% 1.38%
66.94 57.07 1.74
The 2006 Midterms
Except for the notorious 2006 FL-13 congressional race in which 18,000 mostly
Democratic votes were mysteriously missing, the evidence of massive fraud in the
midterm elections is hardly mentioned in the corporate media. But a Pew 2006
Election Analysis describes voting “anomalies” and computer “glitches” that
occurred in virtually every state. The fraud probably cost the Democrats 10-20
congressional seats.
The 2006 National Exit Poll “How Voted in 2004” weights were changed from 47 Bush/45
Kerry at 7pm to 49/43 in the Final NEP the following day. Once again, just like in
2004, the exit pollsters had to match the vote count by expanding the weight spread
from 2% to 6%! This had a major effect in cutting the Democratic margin in half,
from 55-43% to 52-46%. As noted earlier, the 2004 NEP 12:22am Bush/Gore 41/39 weights
were changed to 43/37 in the 2pm Final, turning a 51-48% Kerry victory into a 51-48% loss.
When plausible 49 Kerry/ 46 Bush weights (based on the 2004 NEP) are used, the
Democratic margin becomes 56.7-42.1%, exactly matching the 120 pre-election Generic
Poll trend line. Was this just a coincidence or another confirmation that the
pre-election polls matched the 7pm National Exit Poll?
The Democratic Tsunami won 31 congressional seats. But they actually did much better
than that. A regression trend analysis of 120 pre-election Generic polls (all won by
the Democrats) projected they would win by 56-42% and gain over 40 seats. The 7pm
National Exit Poll (55 Dem-43% Rep) confirmed the pre-election trend. But the next
day, the Final NEP was forced to match a corrupted vote count with implausible
weights and vote shares. The Democratic margin was cut in half to 52-46%. The fraud
resulted in the loss of 10-20 seats.
Generic Pre-election Poll Trend vs. the 7:07pm and Final National Exit Poll
To derive an approximation to the TRUE vote for all demographics, the 7pm NEP vote
shares and weights were adjusted to match a 57.8-40.2% Wikipedia Democratic vote
margin. The base case assumptions were: a) 4.0% of Democratic votes and 1.4% of
Republican/other votes were uncounted and b) 7% of Democratic votes were switched to
the Republicans.
The TRUE 16% Democratic margin was based on the 120-Generic poll linear trend which
was confirmed in the Wikipedia early vote count. It has always been the case that
millions of ballots, mostly Democratic, are never counted. In this election,
uncounted ballots accounted for less than half of the total discrepancy. The major
fraud factor was vote-switching at the polling place and/or the central tabulator.
The analysis does not include the millions of disenfranchised voters (mostly
Democratic) who never got to the polls. The Generic LV pre-election polls, as
one-sided as they were, low-balled the intended Democratic vote.
In both the 7:07pm and Final 1:00pm Exit Polls, the results were adjusted to obtain
an estimated TRUE vote. For each demographic, switched vote rates were applied to
final vote shares to determine pre-switch shares. Uncounted votes were subtracted
from the 7:07pm exit poll result. Unlike the Final, the 7:07pm poll was NOT matched
to the vote count. Uncounted and switched vote shares were added back to the Final
since it was contaminated in matching to the vote count.
The theoretical Intended Vote is given by:
IV = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched + Disenfranchised
The True Vote is given by:
TV = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched
National Exit Poll
Source..... Dem Rep Other
CNN-7pm 55.2% 43.4% 1.5%
CNN-Final 52.2% 45.9% 2.5%
NYT 53.1% 44.9% 2.0%
Reported National Vote
Wikipedia 57.7% 41.8% 0.5%
CBS- Nat 52.7% 45.1% 2.2%
CBS-State 51.3% 46.4% 2.3%
120 Generic Poll Linear Regression Trend
Dem Share = 46.98% + .0419x
Rep Share = 38.06% + .0047x
Substituting x = 120 and allocating 60% of the undecided vote (UVA) to the Democrats:
........ Trend + UVA = Projection
Dem = 52.01 + 4.42 = 56.43%
Rep = 38.62 + 2.95 = 41.57%
National Exit Poll Timeline vs. the True Vote (based on the Generic Poll Trend)
VOTED 2004
--------- 7:07pm ----------- -------------- Final -------- ------ True Generic Vote -----
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Kerry 45% 93% 6% 1% 43% 92% 7% 1% 49% 93% 6% 1%
Bush 47% 17% 82% 1% 49% 15% 83% 2% 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 4% 67% 23% 10% 4% 66% 23% 11% 1% 67% 23% 10%
DNV 4% 67% 30% 3% 4% 66% 32% 2% 4% 67% 30% 3%
TOTAL 100% 55.2% 43.4% 1.4% 100% 52.2% 45.9% 1.9% 100% 56.7% 42.1% 1.2%
Democratic Vote Share Sensitivity to NEP “How Voted in 2004” Weights
National Exit Poll (7pm)
Weight: DNV 4%; Other 4%
7pm
Kerry 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51%
Bush 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44% 43% 42% 41%
Dem 53.7% 54.4% 55.2% 56.0% 56.7% 57.5% 58.2% 59.0% 59.8%
Final National Exit Poll (1pm)
Weight: DNV 4%; Other 4%
1pm
Kerry 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51%
Bush 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44% 43% 42% 41%
Dem 52.2% 53.0% 53.7% 54.5% 55.3% 56.0% 56.8% 57.6% 58.4%
True Vote
Weight: DNV 4%; Other 1%
True
Kerry 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51%
Bush 52% 51% 50% 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44%
Dem 52.2% 52.9% 53.7% 54.5% 55.2% 56.0% 56.7% 57.5% 58.3%