1988-2004: Uncounted votes and Exit Poll discrepancies

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/UncountedVotes.htm

Uncounted votes have steadily declined as percent of total votes cast - from 10.4% in 1988 to 2.7% in 2004. When added to the recorded vote in order to derive the total votes cast for the five elections from 1988-2004, the average Democratic unadjusted exit poll share is within 0.1% of the adjusted vote.

Comparing the adjusted vote to the aggregate exit poll and recorded vote:
( 2-party exit poll in parenthesis)



Year Democrat Recorded Exit Poll Adjusted
Average share 46.9% 48.8%(52.7%) 48.9%

1988 Dukakis 45.6 46.8 (47.3) 48.7
1992 Clinton 43.0 45.7 (56.8) 45.7
1996 Clinton 49.2 50.2 (55.8) 51.4
2000 Gore 48.4 49.4 (51.4) 49.7
2004 Kerry 48.3 51.8 (52.3) 49.0


Look at this graph. In every one of the last five elections the unadjusted Democratic exit poll share exceeded the recorded vote. But which of the five stands out from the rest?

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2004ElectionCalculator_26566_image001.png

The 2004 exit poll discrepancies were different in kind and scope from those of the prior four elections. Unlike 1988-2000, the 2004 discrepancies cannot be explained by uncounted votes alone.

There are some exit poll critics who claim that the large (5.4 WPE) 1992 exit poll discrepancy proves that 2004 exit poll analysis (7.1 WPE) which indicate that the election was stolen are "crap" and "bad science". After all, they say, there were no allegations of fraud in 1992. They fail to mention (or are unaware of) the fact that in 1992 Clinton beat Bush I by a recorded 43.6-38.0m (43.0-37.4%) but 9.4m votes were uncounted - and 70-80% were Democratic. When the uncounted votes are added, the adjusted vote becomes 50.7-40.3m (45.7-36.4%), which exactly matched Clinton’s unadjusted exit poll.

From 1988-2000, after the uncounted adjustment, there was a 0.85% average Democratic exit poll discrepancy and 2.9 WPE. In 2004, after the 3.4m uncounted vote adjustment, there was a 2.8% discrepancy and Bush's margin was reduced from 3.0m (62.0-59.0) to 1.3m (62.9-61.6). But uncounted votes were only one component of Election Fraud 2004. The Election Calculator Model determined that approximately 5m votes were switched from Kerry to Bush.




Recorded and Uncounted Votes
Recorded Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other WPE Unctd Dem Rep
Avg 104.0 48.8 47.9 7.2 46.9% 46.0% 7.1% -3.76 7.56 5.67 1.89

2004 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2 48.3% 50.7% 1.0% -7.09 3.45 2.58 0.86
2000 105.4 51.0 50.5 4.0 48.4% 47.9% 3.8% -2.01 5.38 4.04 1.35
1996 96.3 47.4 39.2 9.7 49.2% 40.7% 10.1% -1.93 8.73 6.55 2.18
1992 104.2 44.8 39.0 20.4 43.0% 37.4% 19.6% -5.40 9.66 7.24 2.41
1988 91.6 41.8 48.9 0.9 45.6% 53.4% 1.0% -2.38 10.60 7.95 2.65

Adj. Votes Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other EPDem Diff EP2pty Unctd
Avg 111.5 54.5 49.8 7.2 48.9% 44.6% 6.5% 48.8% -0.1% 52.7% 7.0%

2004 125.7 61.6 62.9 1.2 49.0% 50.0% 1.0% 51.8% 2.8% 52.3% 2.74%
2000 110.8 55.0 51.8 4.0 49.7% 46.8% 3.6% 49.4% -0.3% 51.4% 4.86%
1996 105.0 54.0 41.4 9.7 51.4% 39.4% 9.2% 50.2% -1.2% 55.8% 8.31%
1992 113.9 52.1 41.5 20.4 45.7% 36.4% 17.9% 45.7% 0.0% 56.8% 8.48%
1988 102.2 49.8 51.5 0.9 48.7% 50.4% 0.9% 46.8% -1.9% 47.3% 10.37%