10/28 Election Model: Obama 381 EV (76-62m) if it's FRAUD-FREE [Archive]

TruthIsAll

10-28-2008, 10:36 PM

[!-- 10/28 ELECTION MODEL: OBAMA 381EV, 76-62m... IF IT's FRAUD-FREE! --]
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[link:tinyurl.com/3twe4v|2008 ELECTION MODEL]
AMonte CarloElectoralVoteSimulation
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[div style="font-family: Arial,Tahoma,Trebuchet MS;font-size:14.0pt"][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;font-family: Arial, Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif';font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.0;font-weight:500;font-style:italic"]Updated: October 28
[/quote][div style="clear:left;margin-left: 1.5em;font-size: 10px;color:gray"]Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update[/quote][div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 32.5em;max-width: 32.5em;font-family: Arial,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif';font-size:13px;font-weight:600;line-height:1.51;border-right: 1px solid gray"]
[li style="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,font-size:13px"][link:tinyurl.com/6225jb|Chart]State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend
[li style="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,font-size:13px"][link:tinyurl.com/5cwkmz|Chart]National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection
[li style="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,font-size:13px"][link:tinyurl.com/5t5vdq|Chart]State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends
[li style="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,font-size:13px"][link:tinyurl.com/57degm|Chart]Battleground-State Polls
[li style="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,font-size:13px"][link:tinyurl.com/5vdj63|Chart]Battleground-State Win Probability
[li style="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,font-size:13px"][link:tinyurl.com/64p9t4|Chart]Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency
[li style="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,font-size:13px"][link:tinyurl.com/594llh|Chart]Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend
[li style="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,font-size:13px"][link:tinyurl.com/5el3zg|Chart]Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend
[li style="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,font-size:13px"][link:tinyurl.com/64zu8b|Chart]Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability
[li style="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,font-size:13px"][link:tinyurl.com/5kz7rx|Chart]Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials[div align="center" style="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,Trebuchet MS,Tahoma;font-size:13px;font-style:normal"]2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer[/quote][li atyle="font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,Trebuchet MS,Tahoma;font-size:13px;font-style:normal;font-size: 13px"][link:tinyurl.com/6ppqzm|Uncounted&Switched Votes]
[li style="margin-left: 16px;list-style-position: outside;list-style-type: none;font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,Trebuchet MS,Tahoma;font-size:13px;font-style:normal"][link:tinyurl.com/6xuzcb|Chart]Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share
[li style="margin-left: 16px;list-style-position: outside;list-style-type: none;font-family: Microsoft Sans Serif,Arial,Trebuchet MS,Tahoma;font-size:13px;font-style:normal"][link:tinyurl.com/5tpard|Chart]Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote[div style="clear:left;padding-line-height: 1.0em"][/quote][div align="center" style="padding-top:3px;padding-bottom: 3px"][link:tinyurl.com/6ax55w|“I’m glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list.”]—Sancho[/quote][/quote][/quote][div style="margin: 0em"][div style="float:left;width: 20px;border-top: 7pt solid black"][/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;margin-left: 0px;width: 63em;max-width: 63em;border-top: 7pt solid black;border-right: 1px solid black"][div align="left" style="margin-left: 0em;color:black; font-size:18px;font-family: Arial,Trebuchet MS,Microsoft Sans Serif,Tahoma"][div style="font-style:normal;font-family: Arial,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.5"][div align="left" style="font-family: Arial,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.3;padding-top: 16px;margin-top: -16px"][div style="width: 88px;min-width: 88px;float:left;padding-left: 0px" align="left"]This[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left;padding-left: 0px; margin-left: 0px" align="center"]State[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]National[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]State[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]National[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left;background:#BEFFFF;padding-right: 1px" align="right"]Monte Carlo[/quote][div style="width: 6.0em;float:left;background:#BEFFFF;padding-left: 6px" align="left"]Simulation[/quote][/span]
[div style="width: 88px;clear:left;float:left;padding-left:0px" align="left"]Update[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]Poll[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]5-Poll[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]2-party[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]2-party[/quote][div style="width: 14em;float:left" align="center"]Expected[/quote]
[div style="width: 88px;clear:left;float:left;padding-left:0px" align="left"]10/28/2008[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]Aggregate[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]Average[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]Projection[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]Projection[/quote][div style="width: 14em;float:left" align="center"]Electoral Vote[/quote][/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 88px;max-width: 88px;margin-left: 0em;padding-left: 0px;border-top: 1px black solid"]Obama
McCain[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"]51.60 (54.84)
42.50 (45.16)[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"]50.20 (53.18)
44.20 (46.82)[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"]55.2
44.8[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"]53.5
46.5[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 14em;border: 1px solid black;border-left: 0px solid red"] 379.5
158.5 [/quote][/quote]
[/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;margin-top: 1.5em;width: 73em;mix-width: 73em;font-family: Arial,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif';font-size:11px;font-weight:bold"][div align="center" style="clear:left;font-size: 15px"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8em;border-top: 2px solid black"]15-Poll[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;border-top: 2px solid black"]End[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4.5em;border-top: 2px solid black"]Sample[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;border-top: 2px solid black"]Poll[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 15.9em;max-width:15.6em;background:#E2DDB5;border: 2px solid black"]NATIONAL MODEL[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 1.0em;max-width: 1.0em;color:blue;border-top: 2px black solid"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 17.0em;background:#BEFFFF;border-top: 2px solid black"]PreUndecided Voter Allocation5-Poll Mov Avg[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 1em;color:blue;border-top: 2px black solid"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 17em;background:#BEFFFF;border-top: 2px solid black"]2-Party Projection(60% UVA)[br]5-Poll Mov Avg[/quote][div style="line-height: 1.57"]
[div align="center" style="margin: 0em;clear:left;float:left;width: 8em"]Trend

Research2k
Gallup
Zogby
Hotline/FD
Rasmussen

ABC/WP
Battleground
Pew Research
Newsweek
CBS/NYT

FOX News
Pew Resrch
Ipsos
NBC/WSJ
CNN

Registered V
vsLikely V
Poll Averages

[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em"]Date

10/27
10/27
10/27
10/27
10/27

10/26
10/27
10/26
10/23
10/22

10/21
10/19
10/20
10/20
10/19

[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4.5em"]Size

1100 LV
2794 RV
1202 LV
878 LV
3000 LV

1321 LV
1000 LV
1325 RV
882 LV
771 LV

936 LV
2382 LV
773 LV
1159 RV
764 LV
[b]
RV avg
LV avg
Total
2-party
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em"]MoE

2.95%
1.85%
2.83%
3.31%
1.79%

2.70%
3.10%
2.69%
3.30%
3.53%

3.20%
2.01%
3.52%
2.88%
3.55%
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;color:blue"]Obama

50.4
50
49
50
51

52
49
52
53
52

49
53
50
52
51

51.33
50.78
50.89
54.60
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;color:maroon; "]McCain

42.7
43
45
42
46

45
46
36
41
39

40
39
42
42
46

40.33
42.81
42.31
45.40
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;color:black; "]Other

6.9
7
6
8
3

3
5
12
6
9

11
8
8
6
3

8.33
6.41
6.79
0.00
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em"]Spread

7.7
7
4
8
5

7
3
16
12
13

9
14
8
10
5

11.00
7.97
8.58
9.21
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 1em;color:blue"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;color:blue"]Obama

50.2
50.4
50.9
51.3
51.1

51.4
51.1
51.6
51.4
51.0

50.4
51.0
50.6
51.0
51.0
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;color:maroon"]McCain

44.2
43.3
43.0
42.1
41.9

40.9
40.4
39.9
41.3
41.1

41.1
41.0
41.3
41.4
41.3
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em"]Spread

6.0
7.1
7.9
9.1
9.3

10.6
10.7
11.7
10.1
9.9

9.3
10.0
9.3
9.6
9.7[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]Win Prob

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
99.8
99.9
99.9

100.0
99.9
98.7
98.0
95.7
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 1em;color:black"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;color:blue"]Obama

53.5
54.2
54.5
55.2
55.3

56.1
56.2
56.7
55.8
55.7

55.5
55.8
55.5
55.5
55.6
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;color:maroon"]McCain

46.5
45.8
45.5
44.8
44.7

43.9
43.8
43.3
44.2
44.3

44.5
44.2
44.5
44.5
44.4
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;color:black;border-left: 0px gray dotted"]Spread

7.1
8.4
9.1
10.5
10.7

12.1
12.4
13.4
11.6
11.4

11.0
11.6
10.9
11.1
11.3
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]Win Prob

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
99.9
99.8
99.3
[/quote][/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;float:left;line-height: 0.45"][/quote]
[/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote][div style="clear:left;padding-left:15px;width: 840px;font-size:15px;line-height:1.6;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;font-family: Times New Roman,Arial,Trebuchet MS"]The Election Model (EM) assumes as a base case that a fraud-free election is held today — and that current polls reflect the true vote. The state model projects Obama will win the True Vote by 76–62m. For McCain to win, he needs approximately 10% of Obama’s votes switched to his column (see the table below).

Obama exceeded 350 EV in 4862 of 5000 Monte Carlo election trial simuations, so there is a 97.2% probability that he will win at least 350 EV. He has a 58% probability of exceeding 380 EV (he won 2902 trials with more than 380 EV).

The BAD news: The Gallup LV poll has Obama’s lead down to 2 points, 49–47%; the RV poll has him ahead by 50–43%. The AP poll (43–42) generated lots of angst and had very implausible internals.

The GOOD news: the Pew RV poll has Obama up by a whopping 16 points (52–36%) — and that’s BEFORE undecided voters are allocated.Pew is a well-known polling firm with a long history. One week ago, the Pew LV poll also indicated a commanding Obama 53–39% lead. The polls portend a MAJOR True Vote landslide. Regarding the AP poll, the two-party share was just 85%. If we allocate 2/3 of the “other” 15% to Obama, we get a 6% spread (53–47%).

The [link:tinyurl.com/6g25xp|undecided vote allocation] is based the assumption that Obama is the challenger and McCain is running for Bush’s third term (GWB is [link:field.com/fieldpoll/presidents.html|not the most popular] of incumbents). In fact, the Election Model (EM) base case allocates a conservative 60% of the undecided vote to Obama; most pollsters would typically assign 70–90%, depending on the incumbent’s approval rating.

The most critical states weighted by the electoral vote and poll spread (see below) are now FL, IN, NC, OH, MO, AZ and GA. The latest polls indicate that these states are a virtual lock: PA, MI, WI, MN, IA. With one week to go, the latest polls indicate that Obama is even within striking distance of winning these red states: Arizona (10 EV), Georgia (15), Montana (3) and North Dakota (3).

National polls are current; state polls lag the nationals by a week on average. But over the past few days, Obama’s projected state aggregate 2-party vote (55.2%) has exceeded the national average (53.5%). At the same time, Obama’s expected EV keeps rising. View the [link:tinyurl.com/5el3zg|Electoral vote and projected vote share trend]. Battleground state polls are now more frequent then they were a month ago, therefore the state poll aggregate should more closely match the national. View the [link:tinyurl.com/5t5vdq|State vs. National vote share projection Trend].

The EM calculates an average of the two or three most recent state polls. It projects five vote share scenarios (5000 election trials each) over a range of undecided voter allocations (UVA) from 40–90%. Obama won the base case scenario (60%) with an average 379.3 EV. The median and mode were both 381. Even in the worst-case scenario (40%), he won all 5000 trials.

The Monte Carlo mean EV (379.31) matches the theoretical summation formula EV (379.49) based on state win probabilities. This illustrates The Law of Large Numbers (LLN): 5000 simulated election trials were required for the MEAN EV to CONVERGE to the THEORETICAL EV (the simulation is in the “long run”). It is computational overkill to perform a [link:election.princeton.edu/|meta analysis] requiring the calculation of millions of EV combination scenarios in order to calculate the win probabilities.

Polling data source:
[link:electoral-vote.com|Electoral-vote.com]
[link:tinyurl.com/4salnr|RealClearPolitics.com]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
[div style="margin-left: 2em;width: 64em;font-size: 14px; font-style: normal;font-weight: bold;line-height: 1.35"]
Assumptions[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 3em;color:blue;padding-right: 5px;"]143.0m
3.0%
3.0%[/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width: 6em;padding-left: 3px;color:black;"]votes Cast
Uncounted
3rd Party[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em;padding-right: 5px;color:blue;"]138.7m
4.3m
4.3m[/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width: 20em;padding-left: 3px;"]votes Recorded
(75% to Obama)
to Nader, Barr, McKinney et al[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;"]60% Undecided Voters Allocated (UVA) to Obama[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 14em;color:black"]National Model
Tracking Poll Average
Projected share
Projected (2-party)
Projected True Vote
Projected Recorded Vote

State Model
Aggregate Poll Share
Projected
Projected (2-party)
Projected True Vote
Projected Recorded Vote[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:blue"]Obama
50.2
51.7
53.5
74.0
70.8

51.6
53.4
55.2
76.3
73.1[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:maroon"]McCain
44.2
45.3
46.5
64.7
63.7

42.5
43.6
44.8
62.4
61.3[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]Oth/UV
5.6
3.0
0.0
4.3
4.3

5.9
3.0
0.0
4.3
4.3[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 4em;color:black"]Margin
6.0
6.5
7.1
9.3
7.1

9.1
9.7
10.3
13.9
11.7[/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]
%
%
%
million
million

%
%
%
million
million[/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 14em;color:black"]Electoral Vote
Poll
Projected
Theoretical Expected[/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width: 5em;color:blue"]
381
381
379.49[/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width: 5em;color:maroon"]
157
157
158.51[/quote][div align="left" style="float:left;width: 34em;color:black"]
Poll before UVA
Poll after UVA
EV = ∑ (Projection win probability (i) * EV(i)), i=1,51 states[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
Monte Carlo Simulation (5000 election trials)
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 14em;color:black"]Mean
Median
Mode
Maximum
Minimum[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:blue"]374.67
378
378
412
328[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:maroon"]163.3
160
160
126
210[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 30em;color:black"]Average
Middle value
Most frequent

[/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
Obama Electoral Vote Win Probabilities
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 14em;color:black"]Electoral Vote
Trial Wins > EV
Change in Trial Wins
Prob. Trial Wins > EV[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]320
4998
2
99.96%[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]330
4987
11
99.7%[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]340
4950
37
99.0%[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]350
4862
88
97.2%[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]360
4574
288
91.5%[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]370
3905
669
78.1%[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]380
2902
1003
58.0%[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]390
1356
1546
27.1%[/quote][/quote][/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]

THE 2008 ELECTION MODEL
[div style="font-family: Arial,Times New Roman,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.5"][div align="left" style="margin-left: 0em;padding-left:5px;font-weight:bold"][div style="line-height:1.3"]
[div style="font-family: Arial,Times New Roman,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.5"][div align="left" style="font-family: Arial,Times New Roman,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.3;padding-top: 16px;margin-top: -16px"][pre][div style="font-family: Arial, Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.5"][div align="left" style="padding-left:5px;font-family: Arial,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.3;padding-top: 16px;margin-top: -16px"][div style="width: 6.37em;float:left;padding-left:5px" align="left"][/quote][div style="width: 28em;float:left;background:#E2DDB5" align="center"]S T A T EM O D E L[/quote][div style="width: 2.0em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 28em;float:left;background:#E2DDB5" align="center"]N A T I O N A LM O D E L[/quote][div style="width: 2.0em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7.2em;float:left;background:#BEFFFF;padding-right: 1px" align="right"]MONTE CARLO[/quote][div style="width: 6.1em;float:left;background:#BEFFFF;padding-left: 6px" align="left"]SIMULATION[/quote][/span]
[div style="width: 6.37em;clear:left;float:left;padding-left:5px" align="left"][/quote][div style="width: 28em;float:left" align="center"]L A T E S TS T A T E–P O L LA V E R A G E[/quote][div style="width: 2.0em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 28em;float:left" align="center"]L A T E S TP O L L SM O V–A V E R A G E[/quote][div style="width: 2.0em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 14em;float:left" align="center"]EXPECTED[/quote]
[div style="width: 6.37em;clear:left;float:left;padding-left:5px" align="left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]Weighted[br]Aggregate[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]2-party[br]Current[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]2-party[br]Projection[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]Actual[br]Projection[/quote][div style="width: 2.0em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"][br]5-Poll[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]5-Poll 2-party[br]Current[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]2-party[br]Projection[/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]Actual[br]Projection[/quote][div style="width: 2.0em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 14em;float:left" align="center"]ELECTORAL VOTE[/quote]
[div style="width: 6.37em;clear:left;float:left;padding-left:5px" align="left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]60% UVA[/quote][div style="width: 2.0em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]60% UVA[/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 6.37em;padding-left: 5px;border: 1px black solid;border-right: 0px"]10/28/2008[br][b style="color:blue"]Obama
McCain[b][div align="left"][link:www.electoral-vote.com/|EV Map][/quote][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]51.6

42.5[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]54.9
45.1[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]55.2
44.8[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]53.4
43.6[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 2em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]
[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]50.2
44.2[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]53.2
46.8[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]53.5
46.5[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]51.7
45.3[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 2em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]
[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 14em;border: 1px solid black;border-left: 0px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]379.5
158.5[b][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0"] [/quote]
[div style="width: 20.37em;clear:left;float:left;padding-left:5px" align="left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]75% UVA[/quote][div style="width: 2.0em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left"][/quote][div style="width: 7em;float:left" align="center"]75% UVA[/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 6.37em;padding-left: 5px;border: 1px black solid;border-right: 0px"]11/01/2004Kerry
Bush[br][b][div align="left"][link:www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Nov01.html|EV Map][/quote][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]47.88
46.89[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]50.52
49.48[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]51.80
48.20[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]51.05
47.95[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 2em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]
[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]47.80
46.60[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]50.64
49.36[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]51.77
48.23[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]51.25
47.75[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 2em;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black"][b style="color:blue"]
[b][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 14em;border: 1px solid black;border-left: 0px solid black"][b style="color:blue"] 337
201 [b][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0"] [/quote]
[div style="clear:left;margin-top: -4px;font-size: 11px;font-family: Arial,Times New Roman,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma;line-height: 1.5"]
[div style="width: 41em;clear:left;float:left;padding-left:5px;font-size:13px" align="left"]Sensitivity Analysis — Impact of Uncounted and Switched Votes on Obama[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;width: 7.75em;float:left;border: 1px solid black" align="center"]Uncounted[/quote][div style="width: 7.75em;float:left;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black" align="right"]1%[/quote][div style="width: 6.5em;float:left;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black;border-right: 1px solid black"][/quote][div style="width: 7.75em;float:left;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black" align="right"]2%[/quote][div style="width: 6.5em;float:left;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black;border-right: 1px solid black"][/quote][div style="width: 7.75em;float:left;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black" align="right"]3%[/quote][div style="width: 6.5em;float:left;border-top: 1px solid black;border-bottom: 1px solid black;border-right: 1px solid black"][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;width: 7.75em;float:left;border: 1px solid black;border-top: 0px" align="center"]Switched
4%
8%
10%[/quote][div style="width: 7.75em;float:left;border-bottom: 1px solid black;border-right: 0px solid white;color:blue" align="center"]Vote%
52.0
49.8
48.7[/quote][div style="width: 6.5em;float:left;border-bottom: 1px solid black;border-right: 1px solid black;color:blue" align="center"]EV
329
276
251[/quote][div style="width: 7.75em;float:left;border-bottom: 1px solid black;color:blue" align="center"]Vote%
51.8
49.6
48.5[/quote][div style="width: 6.5em;float:left;border-bottom: 1px solid black;border-right: 1px solid black;color:blue" align="center"]EV
323
272
247[/quote][div style="width: 7.75em;float:left;border-bottom: 1px solid black;color:blue" align="center"]Vote%
51.6
49.4
48.3[/quote][div style="width: 6.5em;float:left;border-bottom: 1px solid black;border-right: 1px solid black;color:blue" align="center"]EV
317
266
242[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.5"] [/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;margin-top: 1.0em;width: 50em;padding-left: 5px;font-size:13px" align="left"]Sensitivity Analysis — Impact of Aggregate State Projected Vote Share[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 50.6em;max-width: 49.9em;padding: 10px 5px;border: 1px solid black"][div align="left" style="float:left;width: 16.1em;padding-left: 5px" align="left"]Undecided Voter Allocation[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]Current[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]Base Case[/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 8em;padding-left: 5px"]Obama[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em;color:black;background:#BEFFFF"]40%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em;;color:black;background:#BEFFFF"]54.9%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em;color:black;background:#BEFFFF"]60%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em;;color:black;background:#BEFFFF"]75%[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em;;color:black;background:#BEFFFF"]90%[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.5"] [/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 24em;padding-left:5px" align="left"]Projected 2-Party Vote Share[/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 8em;padding-left: 5px"]Obama
McCain[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]54.0
46.0[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]54.9
45.1[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]55.2
44.8[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]56.0
44.0[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]56.9
43.1[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.5"] [/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 8em;padding-left:5px" align="left"]MoE[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 40.5em"]Popular Vote – Obama Win Probability (Normdist)[/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 8em;padding-left: 5px"]1.0 %
2.0 %
3.0 %[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]100.0
100.0
99.6[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"][b style="padding: 0px 7px;border: 1px solid black"]100.0
100.0
99.9[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]100.0
100.0
100.0[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]100.0
100.0
100.0[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]100.0
100.0
100.0[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.5"] [/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 48.5em;padding-left:5px" align="left"]Electoral Vote – Obama(Monte Carlo Simulation:based on state win-probabilities)[/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 8em;padding-left: 5px"]Mean
Median[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]354.8
356[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]373.6
376[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]379.3
381[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]388.9
391[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]397.6
397[/quote][div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 8em;padding-left: 5px"]Mode
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]367
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]381
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]381
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]381
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]396
[/quote][div align="left" style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote][div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 8em;padding-left: 5px"]Maximum
Minimum[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]406
291[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]427
306[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]430
317[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]440
328[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]451
346[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.5"] [/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 32.2em;padding-left:5px" align="left"]Electoral Vote – Obama Win Probability[/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 8em;padding-left: 5px"]Trial Wins
Probability[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]5000
100.0[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]5000
100.0[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]5000
100.0[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]5000
100.0[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]5000
100.0[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.5"] [/quote]
[div style="clear:left;width: 32.2em;padding-left:5px" align="left"]95% EV Confidence Interval[/quote][div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 8em;padding-left: 5px"]Upper
Lower[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]391
319[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]403
344[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]407
352[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]412
366[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]419
377[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.5"] [/quote]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;width: 8em;padding-left: 5px"]States Won[/quote][div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 8em;padding-left: 5px"]Obama
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]29
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]32
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]32
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]32
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 8.1em"]33[/quote][/quote][/quote]
[/quote][/quote][/quote][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
2008 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS

National Model — see atop
State Model

[div style="font-family: Arial, Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.3"][div style="margin-left:0em;font-weight:bold"][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em"] [/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 10em"] [/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;font-size: 12px;width: 15em;background:#E2DDB5"]L A T E S TS T A T EP O L L [/quote][div style="float:left;width: 13.5em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 9em;font-size: 12px;background:#E2DDB5;letter-spacing: 2px"]KEY STATES(within MoE)[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 4.8em;max-width: 4.1em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 26.1em;font-size: 12px;background:#E2DDB5;letter-spacing: 2px"]2004RECORDED VOTE–COUNTvsKERRY[br]EMVOTE–PROJECTION&WPEEXIT POLL[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 4.15em;max-width: 4.125em"][/quote][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 11.4em;margin-left: -0.32em;font-size: 12px;background:#E2DDB5;letter-spacing: 2px"]2008vs2004[br]PROJECTEDVOTE[/quote]

[div style="clear:left;line-height: 0.7"][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;font-family: Arial, Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif',Tahoma;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.3"][div style="margin-left:0em;width: 120em;font-weight:bold"][div style="float:left;width: 5em"][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 10em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 16em;background:#BEFFFF"]Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6.8em;background:#BEFFFF"]60% UVA[br]Projection[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5.3em"]MC Exp EV[br]Win Prob[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 10.5em"][br]ResourceAllocation[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 4em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6.8em;background:#BEFFFF;border-left: 0px solid black"]Vote[br]Projected[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em;border-right: 0px solid black"][b style="background:#B4EEB4"]WPE (IM)[br]Exit Poll[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5em;border-right: 0px solid black;background:#FFC1C1"]VoteCounted[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.7em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 9.7em;background:#FFC1C1;border-right: 0px solid black"]Vote Counted[br][div style="width: 9.7em;background:white"]deviation[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: 4em"][br][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6.9em;background:#BEFFFF"]2008 Obama[br][div style="width: 6.9em;background: white"]diff[/quote][/quote][div style="float:left;width: .5em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5em"]StatesEV[br]Flip To(*)[/quote][/quote][div align="center" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 5em;color:black;font-weight:bold"]

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA

CO
CT
DC
DE
FL

GA
HI
ID
IL
IN

IA
KS
KY
LA
ME

MD
MA
MI
MN
MS

MO
MT
NE
NV
NH

NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND

OH
OK
OR
PA
RI

SC
SD
TN
TX
UT

VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em"][b]Last
Poll
Date

10/16
10/19
10/26
10/22
10/25

10/23
10/22
9/13
10/10
10/26

10/23
9/20
9/17
10/23
10/26

10/23
10/22
10/21
10/21
10/20

9/20
10/22
10/22
10/22
10/23

10/26
10/20
9/30
10/26
10/23

10/21
10/13
10/22
10/26
10/15

10/26
10/19
10/26
10/22
10/1

10/20
10/24
10/22
10/21
9/13

10/9
10/26
10/26
10/26
10/23
10/19
[/quote] [div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em"]VoteShare
Popular
Electoral

9
3
10
6
55

9
7
3
3
27

15
4
4
21
11

7
6
8
9
4

10
12
17
10
6

11
3
5
5
4

15
5
31
15
3

20
7
7
21
4

8
3
11
34
5

3
13
11
5
10
3
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em;color:blue"]Obama
51.61 %
381

34
40
44
41
61

51
56
90
56
48

47
68
33
59
47

53
41
41
41
55

57
61
55
56
38

48
45
37
49
51

57
53
65
49
45

50
35
57
53
58

43
41
40
44
28

60
51
55
42
52
35
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5.0em;color:maroon"]McCain
42.48 %
157

54
55
47
52
34

45
35
9
39
45

49
27
62
32
45

42
53
53
57
37

38
35
37
39
50

47
44
56
45
43

37
43
29
47
44

44
59
38
41
39

54
50
54
54
64

36
44
37
50
41
58
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 1.0em;color:black"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4em;color:black"]Spread
9.13 %
224

-20
-15
-3
-11
27

6
21
81
17
3

-2
41
-29
27
2

11
-12
-12
-16
18

19
26
18
17
-12

1
1
-19
4
8

20
10
36
2
1

6
-24
19
12
19

-11
-9
-14
-10
-36

24
7
18
-8
11
-23
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;color:blue"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6.8em;color:blue"]Obama
55.15 %
381

41.2
43.0
49.4
45.2
64.0

53.4
61.4
90.6
59.0
52.2

49.4
71.0
36.0
64.4
51.8

56.0
44.6
44.6
42.2
59.8

60.0
63.4
59.8
59.0
45.2

51.0
51.6
41.2
52.6
54.6

60.6
55.4
68.6
51.4
51.6

53.6
38.6
60.0
56.6
59.8

44.8
46.4
43.6
45.2
32.8

62.4
54.0
59.8
46.8
56.2
39.2 [/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;color:blue"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5.3em;color:black;border-right: 0px black solid"]Obama
100.0 %
[b style="color:blue"]379.5

0.0
0.0
34.8
0.1
100.0

98.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
92.5

34.8
100.0
0.0
100.0
88.0

100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.1

74.3
85.2
0.0
95.5
99.9

100.0
100.0
100.0
82.0
85.2

99.1
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

0.0
0.9
0.0
0.1
0.0

100.0
99.6
100.0
1.8
100.0
0.0 [/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;color:blue"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black;border-right: 0px black solid"]Percent

7.6

3.4

20.5

13.3

9.7

11.1
3.0

3.2
0.5

13.3
3.0

7.6

3.3

0.6

[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;color:blue"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black;border-right: 0px black solid"]Rank

6

8

1

2

5

4
11

10
14

2
11

6

9

13

[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 4em;color:blue"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6.8em;color:blue"]FinalKerry
51.02 %
337

41.3
39.0
48.0
49.8
55.0

50.0
55.8
85.5
57.0
51.5

45.8
51.8
37.5
56.3
40.5

53.8
38.5
42.0
48.3
57.5

55.5
70.0
53.5
54.3
46.5

49.3
40.5
36.5
49.8
50.8

55.3
49.8
59.3
48.5
41.8

51.5
35.5
53.8
53.0
61.3

43.5
45.8
48.5
39.3
28.5

57.5
47.8
54.3
48.8
54.0
32.8
[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em;color:black"]JK Unadj
51.98 %
337

41.8
40.2
44.5
45.2
60.1

50.1
62.3
90.6
61.3
51.0

42.0
58.1
32.3
56.6
40.4

50.7
37.2
39.9
43.5
55.6

59.6
65.8
54.4
55.7
49.4

49.0
37.3
37.0
52.8
57.2

57.5
53.0
64.5
49.5
34.6

54.0
33.8
53.0
55.1
62.1

45.8
35.9
43.2
42.0
28.1

66.5
49.8
56.8
40.2
52.1
32.6[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black"]Kerry
48.27 %
252

36.8
35.5
44.4
44.5
54.3

47.0
54.3
89.2
53.3
47.1

41.4
54.0
30.3
54.8
39.3

49.2
36.6
39.7
42.2
53.6

55.9
61.9
51.2
51.1
39.8

46.1
38.6
32.7
47.9
50.2

52.9
49.0
58.4
43.6
35.5

48.7
34.4
51.3
50.9
59.4

40.9
38.4
42.5
38.2
26.0

58.9
45.5
52.8
43.2
49.7
29.1
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.7em;color:black"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5em;margin-left: 0em;color:black"]Projected
-2.75 %
-85

-4.4
-3.5
-3.6
-5.2
-0.7

-3.0
-1.4
3.7
-3.7
-4.4

-4.4
2.3
-7.2
-1.4
-1.2

-4.5
-1.9
-2.3
-6.0
-3.9

0.4
-8.1
-2.3
-3.2
-6.3

-3.1
-1.9
-3.8
-1.9
-0.5

-2.3
-0.7
-0.9
-4.9
-6.3

-2.8
-1.1
-2.4
-2.1
-1.8

-2.6
-7.3
-6.0
-1.0
-2.5

1.4
-2.3
-1.4
-5.6
-4.3
-3.7
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em;color:black"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 4.5em;color:black;border-right: 0px solid black"]Polled
- 3.71 %
-85

-5.0
-4.7
-0.1
-0.6
-5.8

-3.1
-8.0
-1.4
-8.0
-3.9

-0.6
-4.1
-2.0
-1.8
-1.1

-1.5
-0.5
-0.2
-1.3
-2.0

-3.7
-3.9
-3.2
-4.6
-9.3

-2.9
1.3
-4.4
-5.0
-7.0

-4.6
-4.0
-6.1
-6.0
0.9

-5.3
0.6
-1.7
-4.2
-2.7

-4.9
2.6
-0.6
-3.8
-2.2

-7.6
-4.4
-4.0
3.0
-2.4
-3.5[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 4.0em;color:black"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6.9em;margin-left: -0.2em;color:black"]FinalKerry
3.63 %
44

-0.5
3.5
0.9
-5.1
8.5

2.9
5.2
4.6
1.5
0.2

3.2
18.8
-2.0
7.7
10.8

1.8
5.6
2.1
-6.6
1.8

4.0
-7.1
5.8
4.3
-1.8

1.3
10.6
4.2
2.4
3.4

4.9
5.2
8.8
2.4
9.4

1.6
2.6
5.8
3.1
-2.0

0.8
0.1
-5.4
5.5
3.8

4.4
5.8
5.1
-2.5
1.7
6.0
[/quote][div style="float:left;width: 0.5em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 5em;color:black;border-right: 0px solid black"]Obama
13
139

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA

CO*
CT
DC
DE
FL*

GA
HI
ID
IL
IN*

IA*
KS
KY
LA
ME

MD
MA
MI
MN
MS

MO*
MT*
NE
NV*
NH

NJ
NM*
NY
NC*
ND*

OH*
OK
OR
PA
RI

SC
SD
TN
TX
UT

VT
VA*
WA
WV
WI*
WY
[/quote][/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.4;width: 840px;font-size: 15px;font-weight:normal;font-family: Arial,Trebuchet MS,'Microsoft Sans Serif';font-style:italic"]
[div style="clear:left;line-height:1.0"][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;font-style: italic;color:blue;font-weight:600;font-family: Arial,Trebuchet MS;font-size: 18px"]The Election Calculator Model[/quote]
In May 2008, the [link:tinyurl.com/6p3kkx|2008 Election Calculator] projected that Obama would win the True Vote by [link:tinyurl.com/68aefl|71–59m].

[div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]On October 14, the Calculator was updated to include new information:

1) An increase of over 20% in new registered voters, the great majority of whom are Democratic.
2) A 3% increase in the estimated Obama share of returning Kerry voters.
3) An increase in third party vote share from 1.2% to 3.9%.

Obama is now projected to win by 80–58 million votes in a fraud-free landslide.

Estimated vote share
[div style="margin-left:1em;font-size: 14px;font-family:Courier New,Arial;line-height: 1.2"]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 4em"]2004
DNV
Kerry
Bush
Other

Total[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em"]Turnout
—
95%
95%
95%

113.7[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em"]Votes
29.9
60.6
51.6
1.6

143.7[/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 6em"]Mix
20.8%
42.2%
35.9%
1.1%

100.0%
143.7[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em"]Obama
59%
92%
11%
64%

55.7%
80.1[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]McCain
35%
5%
86%
11%

40.4%
58.1[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]Other
6%
3%
3%
25%

3.9%
5.6[/quote][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]The model sensitivity analysis indicates the following, assuming other vote shares are held constant:
If Obama wins just 9% of returning Bush voters and 90% of Kerry voters, he would win by 17.5m votes (54.2–41.6%).
If he wins just 55% of new voters and 90% of Kerry voters, he would win by 17.2m votes (54–42%).

The [link:tinyurl.com/69lz6m|1988-2004 Election Calculator] was developed as a response to the Final 2004 National Exit Poll.
The Final NEP was [link:tinyurl.com/6ebjo8|'forced' to match] the recorded vote using [link:tinyurl.com/642yxd|impossible weightings].

In the Final [link:tinyurl.com/5lsx6e|NEP] (see '13660'), 43% of 2004 voters -- 52.6m -- were former Bush 2000 voters; 37% were Gore voters.
But Bush only had 50.5m [link:tinyurl.com/5km236|votes] in 2000.
Approximately 2.5m died by 2004, and another 2.5m did not return to vote in 2004.
Therefore, only 45.5m Bush 2000 voters could have returned to vote in 2004.

The Final NEP overstated the Bush vote by 7 million in order to match a corrupt miscounted vote.

The 2004 [link:tinyurl.com/634fjr|True Vote] calculation was based on an estimated 100.1 million returning 2000 voters, calculated as:
Total votes cast in 2000 ([link:tinyurl.com/5krbvx|110.8m])...less voter mortality (5.4m)...times 95% turnout (100.1m).
Vote shares were based on the 12:22am [link:tinyurl.com/5lsx6e|National Exit Poll] ( 13047 randomly selected, 1% MoE ).

The model determined that Kerry won by 66.9–57.1 million.

Kerry did slightly better (53.2%) than the unadjusted state exit poll (52.0%) aggregate.
The results indicate that 5.4m votes (8.0% of Kerry’s total) were switched from Kerry to Bush.[/quote]

[div style="margin-left:1em;font-size: 14px;font-family:Arial;Courier New,Arial;line-height: 1.2"]
[div align="left" style="clear:left;float:left;width: 11em;border-bottom: 1px solid black;font-weight:bold"]2000-VotersReturnin 2004— Estimate[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3em"][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 9em;font-family:Arial;Courier New,Arial;background:#BEFFFF;font-weight:bold"]True 'Voted 2000'Mix[link:us.share.geocities.com/electionmodel/ElectionCalculator.htm|Calculated][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 17em;font-family:Arial,Courier New,Arial;font-weight:bold"][link:tinyurl.com/5lsx6e|12:22am NEP] Shares ('[b style="color:maroon"]13047')[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 4em"]In 2000
DNV
Gore
Bush
Other

[link:tinyurl.com/5krbvx|110.8][/quote][div align="center" style="float:left;width: 7em"]Turnout '04
—
95%
95%
95%

100.1[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 3em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 4em;font-weight:bold"]Votes
25.6
49.7
46.6
3.8

[link:tinyurl.com/bpkr5|125.7][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em;font-weight:bold"]Mix
20.4%
39.5%
37.1%
3.0%

100.0%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em"]Kerry
57%
91%
10%
64%

53.2%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]Bush
41%
8%
90%
17%

45.4%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]Other
2%
1%
0%
19%

1.4%[/quote][div style="clear:left;line-height: 1.0"][/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 17em;color:blue;font-weight:bold"]True Vote – Calculated[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]125.7[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em"][b]66.9[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]57.1[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]1.7[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 17em;font-style:italic"]Deviation from Recorded Vote[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]3.4[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em"]+4.9%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]-5.3%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]+0.4%[/quote]

[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 17em"]Exit Poll Shares – [link:tinyurl.com/6f4z25|Unadjusted][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em"]52.0%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]47.0%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]1.0%[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 17em"]Votes Cast in 2004[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]125.7[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em"]65.4[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]59.1[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]1.3[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 17em;font-style:italic"]Deviation from True Vote[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em"]-1.2%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]+1.6%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]+0.4%[/quote]

[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 17em"]Vote Shares – Recorded[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em"]48.3%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]50.7%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]1.0%[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 17em;font-weight:bold"]Votes Counted – [link:tinyurl.com/5km236|Recorded][/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]122.3[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em"]59.0[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]62.0[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]1.2[/quote]
[div style="clear:left;float:left;width: 17em;font-style:italic"]Deviation from Exit Poll[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"][/quote][i][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 5em"]-3.7%[/quote][div align="right" style="float:left;width: 6em"]+3.